Multipolarity

This week, we launch our first premium episode.It's a deep - and lengthy - consideration of two of populism's big challengers. Javier Milei - who now looks set to win the Argentinian presidential election. And Vivek Ramaswamy - who may even come second to Trump. *** To listen beyond this teaser, just jump over to Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989Sign up for the 5 bucks tier. And stick the secret RSS feed in your podcast player of choice.

This week, the lads are kicking back against the recent pervasive narrative in the financial press: that China is on the verge of a big wobble or recession. As they show, most of the China hawks are high on their own supply in an oriental Copium den. The biggest news of the week is the BRICS summit in Johannesburg. With plans to expand way beyond the famous five, are we witnessing the birth of The Global South as a political force, akin to the EU? Is this the moment when a new kind of regionalism comes roaring back? Finally, Andrew Collingwood has been looking into the US property market - and he doesn't like what he sees. With San Francisco visibly failing, now 160 financial companies have departed from high-tax high-crime New York. What becomes of big city America's decade-long property bubble now that the party appears to be over? *** Next week we launch our first PREMIUM PATREON EPISODE. And it promises to be the best thing since someone put fairy lights on the wheel. You can sign up on Patreon to hear the lads chew over the new wave of mega-ultra-populism embodied by Vivek Ramaswamy and Javier Milei. Don't be an Uncool Virgin Basic Subscriber. Become a Swinging Chad of Premium Multipolarity. Act now! https://www.patreon.com/user/posts?u=86737989

This week, the lads have latched onto a report in the Financial Times which claims to show that outside of London, Britain is often poorer than the poorest US state - and equally, that it has fallen way behind its European peers like Germany. Our duo argue the toss: is this just bad accounting? Or is there something more fundamental here, to do with how a different kind of bad accounting has allowed the UK to obscure its long-term decline for far too long? On a related point, Philip Pilkington has been dodging brickbats all week, after he told UnHerd readers that the problem of housing expense may not be all a question of bad planning laws limiting supply. Why, he asks, is this also the case in territories with such different planning and demographics situations as New Zealand, Hungary and Japan? Patiently, he re-explains his argument to Andrew Collingwood. Finally, one Chinese province has repealed its Houkoo Laws. These are the communist diktats that forbid citizens from moving beyond their home province. If this internal Berlin Wall crumbles, as Andrew Collingwood points out, it may well lead to a huge economic boon in the East.

This week, the lads are looking at ESG - Environment, Social & Governance. For years now, companies have been pushing the idea that an 'ESG Score' could be a profitable guide to investing. Yet this latest mind virus for the finance community has produced scrappy results. Now, with Blacrock and Standard & Poor dropping it in the face of tightening markets, Philip Pilkington looks back on the evolution of a fad. In Hong Kong, a little-known investment vehicle allows foreign companies to raise funds in Chinese Currency. Recently we learned that the quantity of 'Dim Sum Bonds' has gone up fourfold in five years. Is this the gateway drug to foreigners finally being allowed to invest in China's capital markets? Then, a consistent theme comes around. Measured by PPP, Germany's economy is on some metrics now smaller than Russia's. Andrew Collingwood analyses why and how the West walked into the strategic blunder of sanctions - one that seems to increasingly have world-historical consequences. 

As summer tightens its grip, the lads are getting back to basics, hosting a Spaces on "What Is Multipolarity"? Featuring Friend Of The Pod Malcom Kyeyune, aka @Tinkzorg. Enjoy. But don't inhale too deeply.

Ukraine has lost its grain deal. Russian fertiliser is struggling to get to market. Now India wants to ban exports of non-Basmati rice. The ratchet on food prices is by no means over. Now, the ratchet on politics really begins. Where are the next big food riots going to come from? Call in the plumbers: there’s a big blockage in the UK gilt markets. Why is liquidity suddenly drying up in a two trillion Pound pool? And what happens next – now that the British government might be forced to double its deficit?Remember the Huawei 5G Ban? For almost three years, sanctions on microchips knocked the Chinese out of the high end phone business. Now, it seems the company has managed to produce its own chips. Is there anything we can’t incentivise them to make better than us? **** Follow us on Twitter: @multipolarpodOr on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@multipolaritythepodcast

De-dollarisation. We've been warning about it since the start of the show. But it won't happen overnight. To arrive at a place where the dollar is just one of many global currencies is the work of years, maybe decades. In this Special Edition, our duo are taking the long view. We're going right back to Bretton Woods, to Nixon & The Gold Window, to the Emerging Markets Crisis of 97 and 98, and to the long sag of post-2008, to trace the internal logic of the dollar system. Then, we're peering into the near future: what could possibly replace it? How long would that take? Are there brakes on this train?

Malcom Kyeyune (@Tinkzorg on Twitter) is one of the smartest, most far-seeing commentators out there. Someone the lads have really chimed with. Earlier in this bonanza week, we paired him with Elbridge Colby, for a Twitter Spaces debating whether America could ever take a Realist turn. Now, he's back for a solo show. The lads go deep into Chairman Kyeyune Thought: from the worthlessness of much US military hardware, to the unrecognised shrinkage of the US economy on a PPP basis, to the cosplaying of Swedes in NATO. "So much of our politics today is just about managing narratives." "Will we act before the bad things happen? The signs are not auspicious..." "I'm optimistic... even if there is a nuclear war, five per cent of humanity will probably survive... and that's enough to repopulate the earth." Cheery guy.

Can you still get your Germanium on AliExpress? After the US restricted Chinese access to high-end chips, China is looking to ban this vital chip ingredient. So where do we go from here? Can America ban the stuff that makes Germanium? Or is this the Chinese going one step up in the chip wars?  For months, elements within NATO have been piling on the pressure to open a liaison office in Japan. The French think that’s a terrible idea. This week, they finally exercised their veto. So as the world becomes ever-more security-centred, what happens to Western powers that aren’t in the North Atlantic?  Finally, the US is sending cluster bombs to Ukraine. Or controversial cluster bombs to give them their full name. Now that even Rishi Sunak has come out against the decision, it seems  a wedge is about to be driven through the Western alliance. More broadly – are we about to move beyond the Geneva convention consensus on what weapons are barbarous?

This week, we hosted a special Twitter Spaces debate, now re-published as a podcast. The topic was: "Is Realism realistic for America, or will liberal idealists and neocons always control US foreign policy?" Can America's animal spirits shift strategy? We were joined by two of the world's top thinkers on the question, each with a distinct angle. @ElbridgeColby is the architect of the 2018 US National Defence Strategy, is the principal of the Marathon Initiative, which develops strategies to prepare the US for an era of sustained great power competition. His book, The Strategy of Denial, caused a sensation in International Relation circles.Malcolm Kyeyune (@tinkzorg) is a Swedish journalist who writes for @compactmag_, @unherd and @AmericanAffrsHis brilliant essay, The Tragedy of Foreign Policy Realism, praised Elbridge Colby's book but suggested that America would struggle to ever accept a Realist foreign policy.Here, they're joined by the lads - Collingwood as moderator, Pilkington as agent provocateur, in a spirited discussion that BLOWS THE LIVING BEJEESUS out of everything you EVER THOUGHT YOU UNDERSTOOD about International Relations. After 90 minutes, the stream was ended suddenly by a technical error, after a toaster blew up in the recording studio, setting fire to the reel-to-reels - apologies for the abruptness.

As France mops up the ashes of the burnt-out banlieues, data shows national food spending is down thirty per cent year on year. It’s not quite Les Miserables, but right across Europe, it seems that hangry might turn out to be the dominant political mode of 2023.China is building a trade superweapon. They’ve just created a brand new foreign relations department that will have the scope to take charge of tariffs and imports. It feels like we’ve arrived at the mutually assured destruction phase of a potential trade war. The question is: will anyone be bold enough to punch in the launch codes?A shock German poll suggests the AfD is within 3 points of the centre-right CDU. With the centre-left SPD of Olaf Scholz lagging behind both, it seems as though the next German election coalition could be between the right and the hard-right.So will the country be able to hold onto its historic cordon sanitaire? Or is this the moment when even the eternally dull German politics finally gets spicy?

The Chinese are backing the Argentinian claims to the Falklands, with hot anti-colonialist rhetoric. With America still neutral, is Britain heading towards a Suez two-point oh moment? And perhaps more importantly: have we reached a sinister new milestone in the multipolar era – where old colonial grievances become brand new proxy wars?Back in Britain, the Bank of England are looking to re-bottle the inflation genie with another big rate hike. Are they being too aggressive? When it comes to destroying the British economy, do they just need to finish the job the government started? Finally, for decades Germans have lived by the schwarze null: the so-called Black Zero of a balanced budget. Meanwhile, the likes of Italy lived by the red billion. With interest rates spiking, and a new kind of Eurozone crisis brewing, are we about to see the continuation of what is effectively a culture war across the beer/wine line? 

This week leads on an extraordinary story. A new metric, from the world-leading science journal Nature has put Chinese universities above some of the most famous names in higher ed. MIT, Caltech, Cambridge and Imperial are all ranking lower than the likes of Nanjing and Tsinghua. Andrew Collingwood is interested in how far behind the times our cultural imagination is with regards to China. While Philip Pilkington senses that the gains to being world-best will soon start to turn exponential. Both are mildly baffled as to how we've come up with a ranking system that doesn't prioritise innovative research. With China already producing more STEM PhDs than the US, is the Western university still fit for purpose? In Germany, years of pacifism won't be shucked off as easily as Russian shelling of Kiev. The country's incoming coalition government had threatened to raise the national budget. Instead, its defence minister has had to content himself with 'not having the budget cut'. So is Germany's long-held pacifism turning pathological? Or will they wake up to a multipolar world before it's too late? Meanwhile, it's Iran Nuclear Deal season again. After Trump tore up the Obama era plan, and Biden then won re-election promising to put it back, the going has not been slow. For now, the Iranians are continuing to enrich their party packs of uranium. And in a multipolar world, there is no longer so much that the Americans can offer them to stop. The decisive turn, as Philip Pilkington notes, may come from Israel. As alliances swirl, will they continue their targeted assassinations of top scientists? Or is there even a world in which they come down on the side of the mullahs?

This week, the lads are down the shopping mall... Commercial property is looking increasingly un-commercial. As businesses bail out of downtown post-Covid, it’s threatening to create a downward spiral that drags the banks with it. But will the banks then drag entire cities down with them? America has spent decades taking out Europe’s trash. But if there were a war in Taiwan, a new survey suggests there’s almost no European appetite to back them up. So why don’t young Belgians want to die to prevent two ethnically identical countries merging some 6000 miles away? Finally… Diplomatic ties with Iran; an accord with Israel. The Saudis have been busy making friends. Now, like any suddenly popular kid, they’re ditching their old mates. Is the Kingdom finally taking a step back from its pals in Washington? 

Tim Cook. Elon Musk. Warren Buffet. Jeff Bezos. Jamie Dimon. Lately, a who’s who of American business power has been sent over to meet their Chinese counterparts. With embassy-level diplomacy increasingly in the deep freeze, are they using their corporate rockstars to do what the State Department can’t? Meanwhile, inside China, as the post-Covid recovery slows, we may be about to see the economy of Keynes’ dreams swing into action, as the Chinese get busy building. Will it be a clunking fist, or a jumpstart to the heart? Finally, Germany’s recession dials are blinking red. Will the airbags inflate on their auto industry? Or is this the moment their national chest cavity is speared on the steering column? 

What is Britain's industrial policy? What should it be? In this Anglo-centric Twitter Spaces debate, we're joined by 'rising star of the Tory right', Miriam Cates MP. Talking alongside her is SDP leader William Clouston, and Michael Taylor, who runs Coldwater Economics, and publishes an excellent Substack called The Long March. After several off-beat editions, we'll be back to the normal format on Thursday.

This episode is brought to you by Twitter Spaces. With an elephantine 2.5 hour running time, we've gone gonzo, and turned one of our regular Twitter Spaces into a hybrid episode of Multipolarity, recorded live. In addition to all the usual Pilkington-Collingwood goodness, we were joined by a range of listener-guests, including the Ireland commentator Peter Ryan, and the Swedish gadfly Malcom Kyeyune (@Tinkzorg).

Peter Zeihan is a big noise these days. He put in a stellar appearance on Joe Rogan. He's got a new book out: The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. Zeihan is making big-picture geopolitics cool, creating a mass audience for the kinds of things we do at Multipolarity.But the lads also have some issues with PZ. His takes can seem awfully deterministic. And he's obsessed with demography, in a way that seems to miss more subtle factors at play. In this special Q&A episode, we're layered in on one question, sent by a listener, and answered it for over one hour and twenty minutes, as a way of getting to grips with Zeihanism, and what it can teach us. Is America the only true geopolitical fortress state? Is China already in the maw of inevitable population collapse and decline? Is US Naval retreat from the high seas really going to sever the cords of globalisation? Is Europe screwed? The lads take each area in turn, for a full world-view world tour. An odyssey of contra-Zeihan.

In the week after the Bank of England once again raised rates, our geopolitics lads are entertaining the theory that this is about more than just crushing inflation. Britain is being forced to shadow the Fed, as 'carry' becomes ever-more important in an unsettled global forex market. Andrew Collingwood sees Zungzwang in Britain's future: the unpleasant consequences of stagnation and debt overhang are all coming home to roost. In the UK today, when it rains it pours. Meanwhile, California's budget deficit has hit ten percent, and Philip Pilkington sees this as emblematic of a bigger problem in the US: the collapse of the Friends and Seinfeld era. As the city becomes less and less palatable, and as blue state city mismanagement seemingly becomes the norm, how will our economies terraform to a more suburban 21st century? Finally, the lads are giving Giorgia Meloni a bit of rate or slate action. Italy is pulling out of Belt & Road. What does this seismic event tell us about her, and the country's future? Is it possible to be both a populist and an Atlanticist?

Interest rates policy has bedevilled the West ever since Alan Greenspan first put the Fed on the floor in the wake of 9/11. With rates finally returning to realistic levels, we're seeing the impact of what you might call a two decade bubble: banks being squeezed to breaking point. Philip Pilkington is angry at what he sees as central banks using their rates policy as a thermostat 'to turn consumer demand up or down'. Meanwhile, Germany has just recorded a ten per cent dip in industrial output - the largest fall on record. After WWII, Roosevelt's Secretary of State Hans Morgenthau once wanted to return the Ruhr industrial lands to pasture, and make Germany eternally toothless. Will the country's energy policy succeed where he failed? More broadly, is this the moment at which Europe joins Britain in the club of so-called 'service economies': its industrial base outsourced and rotted away? Finally, Andrew Collingwood returns to a long-forgotten conflict: the Syrian Civil War. Unremarked upon, the war is at an effective end, and the country is to be readmitted to the Arab League, more than a decade since it was expelled. Bashar al-Assad will return to a changed Middle East. New alliances. New faces. What does his victory against the odds - and with Russian help - tell us about the failures of Western foreign policy, and what can still be redeemed?

This week, our lads find themselves in the presence of Professor Stephen Walt. A professor of politics at the Harvard Kennedy School, Walt is the arch neo-realist, often bracketed alongside John Mearsheimer. Walt made his name opposing the Iraq War. He has long taken a cautious approach to US and Western foreign policy. He recently wrote that he sees a role for a Sino-American peace plan in Ukraine. Historically, Walt has advocated for looser relations with Iran; he was sympathetic to maintaining Gaddafi's Libya, and is skeptical of the power of the Israel lobby in driving America's Middle Eastern policy. Walt speaks to Europe's role in an increasingly multipolar world - as America looks to pivot to Asia, will the continent be capable of stepping up? Or will that step require more political co-ordination than the present EU can cope with? And how will America actually deal with having to relinquish the reins? Finally, the lads want to know: will the multipolar age more stable, because power is diffused? Or will it be it less so - because two distinct great powers are much more predictable?

This week, ordinary geopolitics lads Andrew Collingwood and Philip Pilkington are back on the case of Janet Yellen. A week ago, she made incoherent comments about American foreign policy. Now, she's giving a big speech about China, and the results are only marginally better. Is Yellen being given contradictory objectives by her boss? Or is it simply the case that, with US hegemony haemorrhaging away, all the options are now bad? As China retaliates over the US chip ban, the global microprocessor chess game has become its own form of geopolitics chess. With both the US and its rivals seeking to build self-contained chip processing infrastructure, smaller countries are being asked to pick winners. At the same time, with Ukraine also bisecting the developing world, being a minnow nation has never been trickier. Does America have enough diplomatic gas in the tank to both support Ukraine and sew up the high-end chip market? Philip Pilkington is skeptical. Finally, with Chile nationalising its lithium, Indonesia imposing an export ban on nickel, and the 'OPEC for lithium' idea still floating around, Andrew Collingwood updates us on the race to define how the market for key 21st century metals will operate. After all, if green technology simply results in different cartels and political misadventures in different parts of the world to oil - is it really a win at all?

This week, the lads have been heartened and dismayed by public statements from the two most eminent female economists of our time. Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen. But while Yellen fell back onto tired old State Department talking points, Lagarde gave a pitch-perfect introduction to the multipolar age. Does the global elite finally get it? And if so, how will they trim their sheets from here on out? While he was dealing with the Irish Republican Army on his foreign trip last week, Joseph Biden was hanging ever more of his domestic credibility on another IRA -the Inflation Reduction Act. Philip Pilkington sees two big takeaways from this $500 billion barrel of pork. First: the return of real dirigiste industrial policy to America. Secondly: the advent of Big Green as a powerful lobbying force on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, Andrew Collingwood has been watching Lula enter through the Beijing door that Macron just exited - bearing a similar amount of fresh deals and good cheer from President Xi. As they watch China build out Brazil's 5G network, will there, he wonders, be a sniff of buyers' regret from the 'Manhattan charity auction set' for having backed a Chomskyite old-Marxist over the more unpalatable, yet much more US-friendly, Jair Bolsonaro?

This week, the lads are trying not to speculate on the exact nature of the Pentagon 'leak' that came out over the Easter weekend. Is it disinfo or just someone with an axe to grind? It's unclear, which is why we're casting out to what may happen beyond the summer - what if catastrophic collapse does indeed come to Ukraine's teetering defences? Who wins what, and how do we keep the fragile world order together? Before he'd touched down in Paris from his China trip, Emmanuel Macron was back on manoeuvres. He gave an airborne interview to Politico in which he laid out a much more Sino-centric view of the coming order. One that had little time for the US line on Taiwan. What is he playing at? Philip Pilkington reckons this one may end up being 'the story of the year'. And then there's the rare earths. They're in everything now. And 85 per cent of them come from China. With a Chip Ban retaliation on rare earth metals in the offing, Andrew Collingwood recalls what happened when China gave Japan a brief taste of what life is like without these strange magnetic substances. Key finding: not good.

After years of carping from the Remain establishment, Britain has finally come to its senses and joined a big trading bloc. But no - not that one. Will life in Asia’s CPTPP allow the UK to export their famous services economy? And what will Brits do with all the cheap leggings they get in return?As China leans ever-further into an eventual Ukrainian peace, France is looking to broker the brokering. At least, that seems to be the key motive of President Macron’s trip to Beijing. The boys wonder whether he isn't channeling the wily spirit of Charles de Gaulle, in trying to make the country a great power amongst the middle-powers. Meanwhile, in the past year, your local shadow bank has leant out $1.4 Trillion. With private equity loaning their way around the banking system, are we all sitting on a powder keg of off-balance sheet ordnance? Or are we just scared of our own shadow dollars? Philip Pilkington has been doing some digging, and his uncomfortable answer is: we'll only know if and when it blows...

This week, our boys are on the trail of the continuing fallout from SVB. With Credit Suisse the next domino in what is looking increasingly like a chain, Philip Pilkington has been doing some digging on system liquidity, and his findings are hair-raising. This, it would seem, is already the biggest run since 1980. And with a new suite of consumer-facing digital banking products that make removing your money a few clicks, are we about to face runs of a speed and scale previous eras couldn't match? In France, Jupiter Himself is heading to Hades. Macron's dictatorial pension reforms are being forged through a haze of teargas. But are these national riots a uniquely French event? Or are they just the harbinger of what's to come for Europe, as the cost of living crisis becomes maddening? Finally, in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu's knack for political survival is being tested to the limits by huge protests over his judicial reforms. With the State Department seemingly coming down on the side of the protesters - Andrew Collingwood wonders whether the US's increasingly 'ethical' foreign policy in danger of alienating its greatest Middle East ally.

As part of our tenth episode celebrations, we've taken soundings from the loyal listeners, and come up with a list of questions to ask Andrew Collingwood and Philip Pilkington. The boys cover all the ground in the world. The Mexican cartel wars. The potential for Polish supremacy in Eastern Europe. What to do about foreign aid. Declining Western living standards. And the prospects for Multipolarity's Souvenir Shipping Choke Point Tea Towels. Hosted by Comedy Gavin, the show's producer, this is Multipolarity after hours: with its hair ruffled, its suit crumpled, a glass of gin in one hand, and a well-thumbed paperback of MacKinder in its back pocket.

This week, we're celebrating our recent tenth show with a double-header. Breaking out of the usual format, we have an interview with a thought leader, plus a special listener Q&A with Ladsie & Boysie themselves, Andrew Collingwood and Philip Pilkington, featuring another very unusual guest. Today is part one of that double-header. We're delighted to welcome Samo Burja to the pod. Samo is a sociologist who has risen to prominence on the analyst scene in the past few years, mainly via his popular and influential Substack. A fellow at the The Long Now Foundation, and senior research fellow at Foresight Institute, his Bismarck Analysis consultancy deals in the geopolitics, technology, demographic and cultural trends that will define the 21st century. He analyses at the scale of 'mega-trends', and has contributed a range of useful coinages to the lexicon, from "Intellectual Dark Matter", to "Live And Dead Players". Naturally, the lads have plenty to dig into - from China's deliberately backwards agricultural policy, to the diplomatic fulcrum that might be breaking Europe away from the US.

The Multipolarity group chat exploded over the weekend, as news of the Silicon Valley Bank implosion began to break. Andrew Collingwood is angry at what amounts to a subsidy for rich depositors. Philip Pilkington reminds us that simple deposit insurance could have solved this - and warns that this rule change is now effectively permanent. What does the world of banking look like, now that the rule: 'all deposits are covered at all sizes' has been instantiated into US orthodoxy? Back in Britain, a Defence Select Committee has heard that it will take ten years for the country to replenish the arms it has already sent to Ukraine. If our enemies won't wait, then surely now is the moment to do something no government has done in half a century - protect and develop British manufacturing? Finally, is Xi Jinping in line for the Nobel Peace Prize? As miraculous bolts from the blue go, the Iran-Saudi deal might be more than Nelson Mandela ever managed. If the Middle East's two duelling regional powers are actually making peace, then how will those left out of step by this reorientation fare? Can Israel still trust America? Or will it too have to carve a new, multipolar path.

Tech-wise, lithium is in everything from electric vehicles to mobile phones. And for an element so high up the periodic table, it's surprisingly hard to find. So, much like oil in the 1970s, are we on the brink of the major lithium miners forming their own cartel? Who's holding the cards here? Which nation might be about to become the next Saudi Arabia? And how will this changing strategic resource picture affect the decade to come? Recent war games, simulating a great power conflict with China, resulted in US simulators being blown out of the bathtub. As Andrew Collingwood explains, America has spent twenty years gearing up to fight insurgencies. Now that the spectre of great power warfare has returned, it's not clear they have the right tanks and the right guns to take on a China that is going hammer-and-tongs for more materiel. Finally, Hungarians have kept warm this winter by engaging in strategic ambiguities over Ukraine. They've invited the ire of the EU, but is their foreign policy just a reflection of the sort of strategic pivots that will required more and more of small states as the multipolar world becomes a reality? Philip Pilkington seems to think so.

This week, Philip Pilkington is hammering a term he claims will soon be everywhere: "The Great Divergence". What becomes of the global balance of power when, as seems likely in 2023, there is simultaneously a recession in the West, and a boom in the East? It's never happened before. So how will we learn to live on a two speed planet? Meanwhile, the chip ban has failed. Touted only months ago as a major new plank in Biden foreign policy, the figures are now in: the only real impact has been to allow China to dominate the Russian semiconductor market. Trade, like life, finds a way. But didn't we already know this? As the duo point out, it holds lessons for economists, who seem ever-more off their brief since the pandemic. Finally, suave technocrat Tony Blair has decided that the West needs to combat rival poles like Russia and China, as they gobble up influence in Africa. The democratic powers seem to be on the back foot, but as Andrew Collingwood points out, given Africa's long-standing instability, the route to influence is anything but straightforward. On this continent at least, coups will continue to dominate the great game...

Turkey has the best performing stock market in the world this year. In part, this is to do with how it has under-performed in previous years. But, as our duo point out, it's also to do with a country taking advantage of the present multipolar fracture. The classic trade and politics hinge-nation, Erdogan's Turkey is finally in a position to exploit its rich advantages. What makes an army powerful? Where's the Big Mac Index on military strength? Philip Pilkington has been digging deep into the data on who has what materiel, and what it's actually worth, and his findings will make for uncomfortable reading in the Pentagon. Is the West hooked on expensive high-tech gadgetry that might have been impressive in a Desert Storm-style campaign, but, as Ukraine shows, doesn't deliver on a brutal WWI-style battlefield? Finally, the Chinese have been on a charm offensive of both charm and offence - their top diplomat has been wooing Europe, and making special entreaties towards Britain - even as the Chinese foreign ministry has been publishing Mao-style denunciations of the Great American Satan on its website. Is there method in the madness? Or is this just diplomacy by confusion? Andrew Collingwood tries to piece together the inscrutability.

In the week that Ireland is gripped by widespread anti-migrant protests, resident Celt Phil Pilkington explains why the present wave of populist sentiment might no longer be containable by the political elite. As Andrew Collingwood points out, the 1950s migration treaties that still run our world were designed for a post-WW2 world long consigned to history. Yet to national bureaucracies, they're still a fundamental part of the 'rules-based international order'. So will that order finally absorb the change, or will it simply crack first?A new Cambridge study unveils a world where Anglo-Saxon 'soft power' is dimming. In the great global popularity contest, the rising powers are beginning to win the hearts and minds of potential allies in developing countries. But does being liked ever actually matter in geopolitics? As Pilkington points out, popularity tends to follow events - not the other way round. As if to illustrate this, one of America's greatest allies in the Pacific has recently had a change of regime. With China fan President Duterte out, and the US-supporting Bongbong Marcos in, American bases are sprouting again in the Philippines. Yet even as Uncle Sam wins one back, the long-term trade trend with the country still strongly favours China. Who will win this tug of love?

Like so many other social media addicts, our duo were in thrall to the rogue Chinese weather balloon over the weekend. But while the rest of the commentariat were fuming at the security implications, Philip Pilkington and Andrew Collingwood are far more mystified at all the performative screeching. As Collingwood points out: "A balloon is a hundred year old technology..." In Nigeria, an attempt to vault over its range of monetary problems by using a so-called 'stable coin' digital currency has quickly descended into farce: riots and bank runs. With the Fed and the Bank of England both on the stable coin bandwagon, the Multipolarity team are curious as to why central bankers the world over are trying to foist these imperfect solutions onto us. Meanwhile, one year on from the invasion of Ukraine, can we finally conclude that the much-heralded sanctions on Russia have not only failed, but given the West itself a bloody nose? And is the political establishment finally softening up the public to confront this unpleasant truth? Code: tYv3C8aT0EdQKS1b3sYm

Philip Pilkington came of age in the shadow of the great Irish property bust of 2008 - it was one of the key reasons he became a macro-economist. Now, as he warns, history is about to repeat itself. The market indicators are flashing red on both sides of the Atlantic. As we hurtle down the real estate rollercoaster for a long-overdue correction, can the West deal with this reversal? Or are we now too over-leveraged to have any financial. weapons left in our arsenal? Meanwhile, in China, as the rest of the world founders, the challenge to growth is growing more acute. We dive deep into recent Chinese economic history, to locate a golden zone in the 1990s, to which the country may be about to return, and explain why the gamified approach of AliExpress may be finally reversing decades of sluggish domestic consumption. Finally, Andrew Collingwood picks up news of a major new investment pact between Russia and Iran that aims to outflank traditional trade routes by building a series of roads, rails and ports connecting Russia to India, via Iran and Azerbajain. As Philip Pilkington points out, longer-term, the economic implications may be dwarfed by the cultural ones.

Latin America's giants have come together. The Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso are to be joined together in a prospective currency union - or at least a “regional unit of account". The prospect of one of the world's most consistent debt defaulters coming together with the often chaotic Brazilian economy has been greeted by some European economists as 'a terrible idea'. But as Philip Pilkington argues, the upsides of controlling inflation make this a very different prospect to the growth-crushing Euro. Meanwhile, Andrew Collingwood is just as interested in what this means for US hegemony over the region. Is the so-called Monroe Doctrine dead? Or will America retaliate, if this tiny seedling eventually sprouts? Whichever way this goes, it seems that getting off the US Dollar is becoming more feasible for emerging economies. We've ripped up the week's agenda to focus on currency unions: considered dead ten years ago, are they making an unlikely comeback?

Andrew Collingwood and Philip Pilkington soldier gamely on in the second episode of Multipolarity - charting the rise of the new multipolar world order. This week: A new report suggests the Chinese might be about to bankroll a naval base in Argentina. As the green revolution takes hold, can the West even build the supply lines for the huge quantities of metals and minerals we’ll need for all those EV batteries? And: is the World Trade Organisation crumbling? The Wall Street Journal seems to think so...  

Philip Pilkington and Andrew Collingwood christen the pod by hashing over some of the week's biggest geopolitics stories. Just who is the enormous whale biting chunks out of the global gold market?Is China about to find a way to leapfrog the US advantage in high-end silicon chips? And then: most pundit predictions for 2023 seem to involve a minor recession - but are those analyses even over the target?