Multipolarity

Kamala Harris is ahead in six key swing states - according to several major polls. All of which are categorically wrong. Could the ghost of the Shy Trumper be about to smite the Dems for the third election running? And why are the usual media suspects pretending it isn’t a thing, never has been, never could be? Meanwhile, in Malaysia and Indonesia, a new domino theory is starting to stack up.  In the world of friendshoring and belt-and-road, the Pacific rim was always going to be the key prize - and China is gaining the upper hand.    Finally, Twitter-X is being pitched into a classic royale — between the mobile forces of capital and the fixed forces of national politics. Not content with fighting a flame war against Keir Starmer, Elon Musk now being set upon by Thierry Breton - Europe’s information commissioner. Which is like being savaged by not one dead sheep, but two. In the most mobile industry in the world, thirty years of globalisation theory suggests there can be only one winner.  One look at Musk’s meme game says he could still flub it. *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity  Or on our Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

The bears are coming. As Japan posts the biggest one day stock market losses since Black Monday, we’re asking whether this dip is a passing blip – or the big ka-blam? Meanwhile, Argentina’s reserves include almost two million ounces of gold, valued at $4.5 billion. But lately, there’s a question that’s on everybody’s lips: where is it? The gold seems to have been transferred out of the country. But why, no one can say. Is this some sublime economic master-stroke from the wacky professor Milei? Or just the equivalent of a desperate gambler taking his wife’s gold rings up to the pawn shop? Finally, in a subscriber-only super-section, we’ll be covering the British race riots. The events of the past few days have shaken the British establishment to its core. With no clear narrative, and an increasingly balkanised society, the country’s leaders now seem clueless and visibly scared, as they face down the fruits of eighty years of immigration policy failure.For our Patrons, we’ll be taking the long view - tracing the history of British immigration; then extending into the far future - looking at the demographic realities of the UK from here on out. And, of course, we’ll be hashing through the story of the day. What can an already wobbling Starmer regime do in the face of the tectonic forces being unleashed? Be warned, this one’s a black pill so big it might be a black suppository. But to listen, you’ll need to be signed up to our Patreon. Just go to Patreon.com, search Multipolarity, and pay 5 dollars, pounds or euros a month. You can cancel any time. *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity  Or on our Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

Last weekend, Viktor Orbán travelled to the town of Băile Tușnad, deep in the Transylvanian mountains of Romania, to attend a 'music and ideas' festival. He was on the bill. Amongst the ethnically-Hungarian diaspora who live in the region, Orbán is a regular visitor. In fact, the Tusványos festival was started by Fidesz back when the party was effectively four people. That was in the early-90s. Today, it has swelled to accommodate over 10 000 people. The place is billed as an 'open university', with talks by a range of academics, thinkers and politicians. Traditionally, Orbán gives his own 'series of lectures' , just like many of others speakers. The difference is that Orbán speaks from the main stage, in front of a crowd of a few thousand. In recent years, these speeches have become philosophical key notes to understanding the Hungarian perspective. In previous years, his talks have made world headlines, including the one where he said he regarded Hungary as an 'illiberal democracy' (though this was partly mis-translation). Rarely does a world leader get as philosophical as Orbán does in these talks. He lays out a deep vision of the future as he sees it for the upcoming year, one that connects history, economics, and metaphysics. This year's speech was among the deepest - and the spiciest -ever. Not only did it catch the headlines, with its barbs against Poland, and naming US intelligence as the saboteurs of the Nordstream pipeline, it could even justifiably be called 'historic'. Orbán talked openly of Hungary's coming pivot to China, of the decay of the Western soul, and of the shape of the peace that must come beyond the Russo-Ukraine War. Gladden Pappin is the President of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. A prominent academic and leading light in the post-liberal movement, Pappin is perhaps one of the hidden architects of Hungary's dynamic foreign policy. This week, The Lads ask him about the deeper meaning of Orbán's Big Talk. ***Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarityOn Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity  Or on our Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

At 4.32pm on the 18th of August the so-called State Committee on the State of Emergency cut the lines of communication to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbacev's dacha - these included telephone communications and the nuclear command and control system.Eight minutes later Lieutenant General Yuri Plekhanov, Head of the 9th Chief Directorate of the KGB, let the group into the dacha where they demanded that Gorbachev either declare a state of emergency in the Soviet Union or resign.The previous month twelve Soviet public figures, mostly artists but also some politicians and military officials, signed a letter entitled 'A Word to the People' in the anti-perestroika newspaper Sovetskaya Rossiya. The letter was drafted by the writer Alexander Prokhanov. "An enormous, unforeseen calamity has taken place," it told readers, "Motherland, our land, a great power, given to us to ward with the nature, glorious ancestors, it is perishing, breaking apart, falling into darkness and nonbeing."On July 10th 2024, the actor, director and film producer George Clooney published an essay in The New York Times entitled 'I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee'. "The one battle [Biden] cannot win is the fight against time," Clooney wrote, "None of us can. It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe “big F-ing deal” Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate."Where Prokhanov's letter was infused with Soviet patriotism, Clooney's was shot through with party loyalty. Prokhanov pleaded with Soviet leaders to save the Soviet Union; Clooney pleaded with Biden to save the Democratic Party. Yet the functional outcome was the same: a coup - of sorts.Less than two weeks later, on the 21st of July, President Biden issued a letter stating that he would not run for president again in 2024. Everyone knew that Biden had written this against his own will. Some accepted that he had simply caved under pressure, others whispered of a backroom deal or even threats.Gorbachev survived his coup attempt, although afterwards he faded into the background as the new President of Russia Boris Yeltsin came to the fore. The coup attempt definitively sped up the dissolution of the Soviet Union, however, precisely the opposite of what the plotters had intended.Likewise, the coup against Biden will likely speed up the collapse of the Democratic Party in the United States. The leaders of this party told the American people that Biden was capable of doing his job but now, after the coup, they have tacitly admitted that he is not. This is an obvious breach of trust - and one that voters will be unlikely to forgive.But what does it matter? The collapse of a political party is nothing compared to the collapse of a great power like the Soviet Union. Another political party, perhaps. But just as the Communist Party of the Soviet Union was until 1991 the party of the state, so too is the Democratic Party of today.The Democratic Party in 2024 is the skeleton of the American ruling elite. Without it, this elite collapses into a gelatinous heap. Can the American state function without its party? Can the current world system survive if the American state starts to falter? These are questions that will be answered in the following 18 months - they are questions that are now being asked across America and the world in response to this very American coup.*** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. https://www.x.com/multipolarityOn Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity  Or on our Substack. https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

You were only supposed to blow his bloody head off...As Donald Trump is saved by God Almighty, we’re indisputably living in the lucky timeline. But while the country might have dodged civil war, American politics has been changed utterly by the events of Saturday. And still not for the better. Meanwhile, Trump’s VP pick is lukewarm on Britain, and positively tepid on Project Ukraine. He’s being sold as a successor. Someone who can  bring real intellectual heft to the MAGA project. But isn’t the intellectual wing of a populist party rather like the library in a whorehouse?Finally, Private Equity was once sold as the honest, hard work, real-projects end of the financial services sector. Take a company. Make it better. So why are they suddenly robbing Peter to pay Paul? And what happens when Peter’s cash runs out? 

Viktor Orban has been taking secret flights. Dodging the CIA’s aviation monitoring to jet into Moscow.    The Hungarian honcho is now fashioning himself as a shuttle diplomat in the Russo-Ukranian War, just as his country takes the rotating Presidency of the EU Council. What was the goal of this clandestine trip? And did he still get the air miles?  Meanwhile, in the French parliamentary elections, Emmanuel Macron’s calculation was effectively like the old puzzle about a man who has to get a fox, a chicken and a bag of grain from one side of a river to another. Today, he’s like a man stood on the far bank of a river watching a fox murder a chicken as it swallows all the grain. Whoops. Finally, in Britain the maths was easy. An epochal nuking for the Tories has brought Labour to power on a one-word slogan of Change. But with the coffers bare, is the change Starmer’s looking for spare? *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. On Patreon. On Youtube. Or on our Substack.

In the halls of modern government the info-wizard is king. Media consultants, political strategists, whatever title they assume they always promise the same thing: magic worked through information control; spells cast by incantation.In the first week of March 2022, only a few days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a slew of articles came out in Western publications announcing the advent of the anti-Russian infowar.To say that this infowar was launched with much fanfare would be an understatement - within days of the Russo-Ukraine war beginning various Western publications were already suggesting that victory was on the horizon.The effect was eerie, with multiple outlets running the exact same headline. "Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia", proclaimed different writers at CNBC, Slate, and The Financial Times.No doubt this proclamation of victory was itself part of the infowar that the various authors purported to analyse - a self-licking ice cream cone if there ever was one.Yet as time went on it became clear that the anti-Russian infowar was not targeted at the Russian people, much less the Russian military - rather it was targeted at a Western domestic audience.The French philosopher Jean Baudrillard once declared that The Gulf War Did Not Take Place - it was merely broadcast as a sort of simulation on television screens across the world. If only Baudrillard had lived to see the anti-Russian infowar launched in early-2022.Partisan politics in the United States had long been drowned in a bathtub of propaganda by the time the anti-Russian infowar came along.As the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal raged in 1998, the American public asked themselves whether the President did or did not have sexual relations with that woman. The question was a factual one: did he or didn't he. Today such a reference to reality seems quaint.The factuality of various political attacks barely matters anymore as everything is treated as being part of some partisan "narrative" or "talking point".And so, when some people raised the possibility that President Joe Biden might be completely incapable of doing his job due to severe cognitive impairment, the factuality of this claim was never really addressed - it was simply dismissed as an obvious partisan attack, a "right-wing talking point".Last week we saw reality climb back in through the window: the President tried to debate his opponent on television and the world saw that America is being led by a man who is clearly not in command of his faculties.In this week's episode of Multipolarity, we are joined by Malcolm Kyeyune to discuss the saturation of the information space with propaganda of various forms.Are these really the savvy tricks that consultants and strategists claim them to be? Or are they a symptom of a political system experiencing deep decline - a system that can no longer deal with reality and finds itself instead retreating into fantasy?*** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. On Patreon. On Youtube. Or on our Substack.

This week, it’s a double header of audio essays on Europe’s elite power-plays. One From Andrew Collingwood - on the Atlanticists and the Autonomists taking their battle for supremacy into the new EU administration.  And another from Philip Pilkington setting out how a new kind of Trussification may be coming for the states within the ECB… Is Le Pen mightier than La Banque? ***It’s premium week, so if you’re not already a subscriber, head over to Patreon where for five pounds, Euros or dollars a month, you can get access to this, and all our previous premium episodes. Cancel any time. 

As Vladimir Putin meets Kim Jong Un, big trade plans are afoot. Much to the chagrin of Western leaders. Seems like we’re about to answer an important question: what happens when the collective set of people you’ve sanctioned gets so large that they can all successfully trade with each other? Which invites yet another question - did no one think of this? Javier Milei decided he would rip the band aid off Argentine inflation. Now, finally, beneath that band aid, we can see… a gaping wound. Inflation is coming down - but in this case, what comes down must go up. We’ll be explaining why The Crazy One’s apparent success in containing the money supply is about to lead to another run on the peso.Finally, last week, the EU was assailed by a wave of populists. It all felt suitably dramatic. A blow against the blob. But have you ever punched a blob before? As the permanent Brussels mandarin class regroups, it's time for the Empire Strikes Back. *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. On Patreon. On Youtube. Or on our Substack.

Military-industrial blogger Malcom Kyeyune spends his life talking and thinking about US war preparations. So what was it like when he finally left his Swedish fortress and visited the capital of the Global American Empire, Washington DC? Malcom is just back from his first international conference. The Lads pick up on his time talking to the generals and the bureaucrats, and wonder whether the numbers match the vibes. Kyeyune is famously pessimistic. What did the DC Blob make of this Jonah commanding them to repent? *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. On Patreon. On Youtube. Or on our Substack.

Mexico has a new President. She’s the first woman President.She’s the first Jewish president. But most importantly, she’s the second Andrés Manuel López Obrador President. As the outgoing leader’s hand picked successor takes over, what does the continuity version of his wiley non-orthodox socialism look like when it comes to Mexico’s global standing? Meanwhile, for once America’s not going for a Mexican. It’s going for a British. The world’s least fashionable takeaway destination is also presently the world’s most underpriced stock market. As American money swoops in, it’s not clear whether they’ll leave the bones. Finally, news is that Turkey is drifting closer to BRICS membership. Nato’s most fragile member seems to be ever-further out of alignment with the West. It’s certainly the dawning of a golden age of Multipolarity. But will it improve on the acronym? *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter. On Patreon. On Youtube. Or on our Substack.

This week: in light of the upcoming UK General Election, we're digging into what Britain will look like in five years time. Caught in a low growth high-debt trap, with currency and trade issues cutting off any room to manoeuvre, what's the softest landing for the G7's most vulnerable economy? ***This is a premium week. So  to get the full hour show, you’ll have to be signed up on Patreon. Sign up is easy. Go to https://www.Patreon.com/multipolarity. It’s $5, £5 or €5 a month.You can cancel any time.

The assassination attempt on Robert Fico has left Europe bemused.  Shouldn’t it have left Europe stunned?     In an age where condemnation of violent rhetoric has never been fiercer, it seems condemnation of actual violence has seldom been milder.   As we move into a more fractious and populist age, what are the implications of the media’s seemingly divergent views on who it is and is not acceptable to assassinate?          The G7 are meeting in Italy - just after Joe Biden dropped his massive package of trade tariffs onto China. So in the spirit of “never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake”, are the Europeans going to clap as he blows America’s head off?  Nope — turns out they’re going to join him. We’ll be reporting from the G7 suicide pact. New figures say that China has dialled down its US government bond holdings by $53 billion in the first quarter of this year. Last week, we gave you the full doomsday 2025 scenario for when the Yuan stops backstopping America. Today we’re giving you the real world here and now version. The long slow slide goes on. Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on TwitterOn Patreon Or on our Substack

This week, a special edition. Two relatively short term scenarios, with very long term implications. Presented in audio essay form, by our two hosts. In Part One, Philip Pilkington outlines his take on what could happen after the US election. An extended sketch on the possibilty of violent Trussification. He thinks that bond market bullying of the incoming Trump administration could in turn set off a chain of events, that demand a new wave of de-dollarisation. In Part Two, Andrew Collingwood flips the perspective from West to East, and from currency wars, to trade wars. He’ll be looking at the world from China’s point of view, in the light of this week’s US trade tariffs on Chinese goods - including a one hundred percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. The Chinese have studied how nations rise, and they’ve come up with a plan to leapfrog US in the technological pecking order. As the low tariff liberal Washington order slips away, what becomes of a world where China is no longer content with low and medium-value manufacturing, but is instead actively targetting the crowning heights that America has long claimed as its unique domain? *** For more on the Chinese plan, be sure to subscribe to Multipolarity’s new Substack, where Andrew will be putting down some extended thoughts. This week, we also have an introductory essay - called What Is Multipolarity? And from next week, every Thursday we’ll have the Multipolarity Briefing - a series of links and brief thoughts to keep you up to date on the latest multipolar developments. Simply search for Multipolarity on Substack.com*** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity Or on our Substack: https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

Belgrade. Budapest. It’s not the classic tourist itinerary – but by his very footprints, Xi Jinping’s historic state visit is redrawing the power map of Europe. What does the continent look like once he’s done stomping about? Meanwhile, the Pound is in deep trouble - the Egyptian Pound, that is. As the land of the pharaohs takes a 45 % haircut on its currency, Egypt is spreading its multipolar tentacles. They’ve announced that they’re going to be settling their trade debts in currencies other than the US dollar. Egypt is the world’s biggest importer of grain. Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of grain. You do the math. Per capita GDP should be the default way to understand whether we’re all getting richer. But for years, Europe’s treasuries have been juicing their growth numbers simply by adding more people.Now, with 13 countries in per capita recession, the migration-driven growth model is coming under the microscope as never before. Is Human Quantitative Easing about to unwind? *** Be excellent to each other, and -Get us on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity Or on our Substack: https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

This week, as advertised on Twitter dot com, the lads are answering your questions. Among other topics, they cover: Rent-seeking behaviour in the West. Airbus. The German elite. The Mexican-American standoffBook recommendations. The life-changing magic of JM KeynesAnd memes.Of course, this is also a premium week. So  to get the full two hour show, you’ll have to be signed up on Patreon. Sign up is easy. Go to https://www.Patreon.com/multipolarity. It’s five Dollars, Pounds, or Euros a month. You can cancel any time.  

Like Germany hiding in the Euro, China have long played the game of keeping their currency soft, to juice their exports.  But now, with the accelerator still jammed to the floor on US inflation, it seems that the powers in Beijing might be looking to devalue the Rimimbi even further.        Everyone plays currency games - the trick is not to get caught. And the problem for China might be that they’re on the brink of embarrassing their adversaries. Meanwhile, what happens when a miracle becomes a conjuring trick?  After forty years of weaving economic magic, the South Koreans now have the world’s lowest birth rate — and GDP slumping back towards developed economy norms. Are they about to become an early Eastern front runner of  the social problems of the west? And can they afford that - given their tough geopolitical neighbourhood?  Exorbitant privilege is what they call the US ability to print the global reserve currency. So what if the privilege was revoked? Plenty of apocalyptic fiction has been written about that moment. But this week we’ve done the modelling to put a number on the dent in US living standards. *** Be excellent to each other, and - Get us on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarityOr on our Substack: https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

A diplomatic incident in Latin America has somehow become the focal point for an ever-expanding range of stories - from the Venezuelan elections, to US energy policy to Ecuadorian banana exports to Russia. Leading even coolheaded observers to ponder the question: are we approaching the Latin American embassy incident singularity? Meanwhile, there are always good tariffs and bad tariffs - and in announcing his new shipbuilding policies, this week Joe Biden’s giving us both a plate of cheese and a plate of chalk.Finally, Arch-Eurocrat Mario Draghi has made a big speech about European competitiveness. Its 20 years of failure - and its hope for the future. Is this the first sign of a continent about to flex its soon to be enviable muscles? Or is it the first twitchings of an arthritic bodybuilder about to pop a hernia? 

Little Rocket Man has a new toy.This month, Kim Jong Un unveiled a Bond-villain-like missile with an extending tip.On that tip was what looks to be a hypersonic glide vehicle. A hypersonic glide vehicle is the real deal. They're extremely fast. They can manoeuvre at those high speeds. And we don’t yet know if it’s possible to shoot them down. On paper, this means that North Korea has more advanced potentially-nuclear missiles than the West. On paper, this is bad news. But the story gets worse.It was almost certainly given to them by the Chinese or the Russians. Why?Could North Korea be the vehicle to do for the East China Sea what the Houthis have done for the Red Sea? Undermining US power, and leaving America’s regional allies - in this case Japan and South Korea - scrambling for new, more multipolar patterns of allegiances. Malcom Kyeyune is a columnist for Compact Magazine, a regular writer UnHerd, an expert on modern warfare, and a friend of the show. In this week’s Special Episode, he’ll be laying out a broad range of potential futures for the region. ***Be excellent to each other, and - Get us on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/multipolarpodOn Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarityOr on our Substack: https://substack.com/@multipolaritypod

The Atlanticists versus the Autonomists -  the European civil war coming soon to a bureaucracy near you. It’s long been a theme of this show that the continent is being slowly capsized by its long term problems, related to energy and productivity. We’ll be picking through three news items that tell the short term story of the continent’s woes.  Terrible producer confidence numbers out of Germany, oil prices back to a fresh spike even in the teeth of an incipient recession, and Poland’s Donald Tusk softening the rhetorical ground for continental conscription. Then, we’ll be panning back.To look at the dilemma Europe now faces. That between the Atlantacists - who want to shelter under America’s aegis, but thereby have to toe the party line on geopolitics; and the autonomists - who want to break for something genuinely multipolar, gaining their energy independence, but at sea in an increasingly dangerous world. The war now spans the continent. And it cuts both ways. In Germany, the AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht are rising from either side of the political aisle, but both promising to overturn the Atlantacist geopolitical settlement. Meanwhile,  as she gets closer to the French Presidency, Marine Le Pen is kowtowing to the NATO line. And Georgia Meloni’s promised populist rule has been set back onto the Atlantacists straight and narrow by the Italian presidency. With constant talk of remilitarising while the continent is broke, are we doomed to spend the next decade stuck in a world where all European citizens are compelled to pretend that our dear leaders are building an army that doesn’t actually exist? Of course, this is the Premium Week, so we’ll be prancing through this dog and pony show for free for fifteen of those 65 minutes. After that, you’re welcome to sign up on our patreon. Five dollars, pounds or Euros, cancel any time. *** PATREON LINK: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity

New research from Bloomberg says that Beijing is steering the Chinese economy away from the recent real estate boom, and into high tech manufacturing. It’s a drive estimated to be worth 19% of GDP by 2026. Running the numbers, not only is China Collapse Theory once again proved false, the market may even have under-priced how much gas there still is in the tank.  Meanwhile, the Francis Scott Key Bridge has collapsed, effectively blockading Baltimore Port for a long time to come. The 80 billion dollars in cargo and 140 000 jobs tied to it is bad enough. But the blow to US pride might turn out to be worse. Across the country, infrastructure is crumbling; while replacing it is becoming ever-more expensive.Finally, as the US Fed debt pile moves towards 100 per cent of GDP, warnings are being sounded about an American Liz Truss Moment. Trussification has become a byword for politicians being strung up by the bond markets.  The only questions outstanding are: who exactly is the Truss who is about to be strung up? And who is organising the stringing? *** Be excellent to each other and follow us on Patreon.

This is a special edition of Multipolarity on  The Economic Consequences Of The War. In 1919, JM Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace. Predicting the death of the old world order after Europe’s first unsuccessful attempt at suicide. We aren’t yet at peace, but the economic consequences of the present war in the middle of Europe are starting to come into view. Consequences for NATO as a new study shows that in order to meet their target of 2% of GDP, European Nato members will need to increase spending by €56 billion every year. For sanctions policy as Azerbaijan records a 2000 % spike in car sales from Britain. And for industry in The Coming Multipolar Age, as Chinese production leaves Western Production for dust. This week: we’re going to be moving through each in turn, to build up a composite picture of what tomorrow will look like, whatever the exact outcome of the Ukraine War. ** Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.TwitterPatreon

NVIDIA has become a stock market behemoth on the back of their AI-friendly graphics chips. Last week saw them hit a $2.19 trillion market capitalisation. So are they the future of the globe’s most info-critical resource - or a sign that we’re entering the Pets.com era of the AI age?Meanwhile, after months of delays and diplomatic blocking operations, Sweden and Finland are officially in NATO. But with past and future president Trump signalling that he will be less than interested in European defence, are they arriving at a party just as the lights go up? Finally, British equities used to be 9 per cent of the global equity market. New data confirms they’re now 3 per cent. And the trend line is south. As the City’s long term future gently slides out of view, Britain is going to need a new basket for all of its eggs...*** Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.TwitterPatreon

Does the housing market obey the laws of supply and demand? We say no. Join us for a controversial, possibly mind-blowing journey into the heart of darkness, into an upside-down-world that set Twitter on fire this week. Victoria Nuland has fallen on her sword. Or someone else’s sword. Whatever happened to America’s third-ranking diplomat, suddenly retiring at 62 while her President hobbles on at 80, it does seem there are suddenly a lot of swords about. Does the fall of notoriously Russia-averse Nuland clear the way for a Biden 180 on Ukraine? Finally, when Rishi Sunak put the crested podium out front of Downing Street last Friday night, for an emergency announcement, it felt more like a hostage situation - like the British political class begging for its life. The Gaza War has ripped up the story Britain once told itself about its multiculture. But still no one can quite say it. How will the country survive its political class being rendered altogether speechless? *** This is a premium edition, for the Patreon frens. For another 25 minutes on the YIMBY Question, plus Nuland and Galloway, please consider signing up. It's £5, $5 or €5 a month, and you can cancel any time. You'll also be given lifetime access to our extensive archive of previous paywall shows. The link is here: https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity

"Hamburgers will decide America's future". So says Malcolm Kyeyune in a recent essay ruminating on the American journalist Tucker Carlson's recent visit to Moscow where he famously - or, perhaps, infamously - purchased a burger at Russia's new McDonald's clone, 'Tasty, that's it'. Kyeyune sees Carlson's culinary adventure as reminiscent of Mikhail Gorbachev's decision to do an advert in which Russians would debate whether the fall of the Evil Empire was worth the introduction of fast food chains. Now the shoe is on the other foot, with Carlson highlighting how cheap food is in Russia in comparison to the United States, plagued, as is the rest of the West, with a cost of living crisis.But this latest fast food fight is really only the tip of the iceberg lettuce. Since the pandemic of 2020, a feeling of malaise has crept into the West. The feeling is palpable and encompasses everything from rising costs of basic necessities to a feeling that the culture is spiralling out of control to a questioning of our basic modus operandi - what happened, some ask, to our freedoms?In this week's episode we want to discuss whether the West is spiralling into chaos? It feels like a lot of narratives are breaking down right now, and one crisis seems to open onto another like a Matryoshka doll. With a highly controversial election on the horizon in November and the Biden Administration having failed to deliver on its promise of normality, is our ideological Berlin Wall starting to crumble?*** Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other.TwitterPatreon

The numbers are finally in. Israel’s economy has contracted 20 per cent year on year.It seems the only consolation is that it’s still doing better than the economy of Gaza.  How long can this level of decline go on? With no end to the war in sight, and a new front in Lebanon cracking open, are we witnessing Israel’s fall from the first rank of the OECD? Meanwhile, remember the war no one cared about? You know – the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War?Of September 2020? Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?  Well, what would you say if we told you the world stands on the brink of Armenia-Azerbaijan War Three? Nothing much? Finally, a new Treasury Committee Report says that the Bank of England will have lost £80 billion by the end of the year. That’s cash, not just a paper loss. In fact, the full paper loss is around 250 billion. That means the new Bank debt shovelled on the government’s books this year is close to the entire Defence budget. Given the present intellectual state of the bank, only one question remains. Does anyone have a bridge to sell them? 

Bloomberg says “Germany’s Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End”. Which poses at least one serious question - has Bloomberg been listening to Multipolarity? As the industrial decline narrative goes mainstream, it seems like the copium has finally run out in the Chancellories of Europe.  Meanwhile, reports in the West of a Chinese bust have reached the kind of fevered tone normally associated with the final days of a boom. Yet somehow retail spending is growing at 7.4 per cent a year, and prices of consumer items like cars are still coming down. So is this the world’s first projection-recession? Finally, Egypt is threatening to withdraw from the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. How much of that is sabre rattling designed to please the Egyptian in the street? And will it be enough to stop the Egyptian in the street becoming the Egyptians in Tahrir Square? 

The US is now bombing Iranian targets, via B1 bombers that have to be flown direct from Texas to perform the task. This is an interesting new form of madness. As the West is pulled ever-deeper into the quagmire, we're taking a low road/high road approach to prediction: attempting to model the potential for serious conflict right up to an Iraq-style land war invasion. Then, we're devoting the second half of the show to thinking more strategically, about the future of the region, the prospects for shutting the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential strategic cards the West has left. *** This week is a Premium Week - every month, we offer our Patrons an exclusive special edition. Our chat with Malcom went on for 1h40, so we've decided to offer the free listeners the first 40 minutes. If you'd like to hear the full whack, including Malcom's thoughts on the potential for Iranian sleeper cells to perform sabotage operations in Europe and America, please do sign up. It's $5/£5/€5 a month, and you can cancel any time. Hell, at this point, you could probably just pay your fiver, go in there, binge on all the previous premium eps, and exfiltrate the very next day. If you were so inclined. Get on our Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

All the greatest romances are love/hate. As The Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor of geopolitics, Iran and America have always danced a dance of angry fascination with each other. Now, as the Middle East burns, their kismet is truly aflame.  With an overstretched Joe Biden about to call in the airstrikes, we’re in the foxhole, figuring out if they’re actually gonna go all the way this time. Or if this is just one more round of heavy petting.  Ever since a British general let slip the prospect of reintroducing conscription, the British media has been convulsed by a debate over the most trivial aspects of the question. Whether we still have Blitz Spirit. Whether Gen Z are too fat. Which ethnicities would be prepared to fight for the multiculti regime. There is, however, a bigger picture — something to do with war in Europe? Finally, this is the week that the FT handed their old enemy Viktor Orban a lifetime’s supply of PR gotchas. In fact, The Plot to Blow Up The Hungarian Economy might be the funniest special ops disaster since the Bay of Pigs. Hatched in Brussels, this bomb had no trigger, no fuse, no gunpowder — in short, it conformed strictly to EU regulations. *** Get us on Twitter. Or on Patreon.

As the 8th round of Tomahawk missiles hit the Houthis in ten days, a senior White House official caused guffaws when he proclaimed the attacks aren’t working - but that we should keep on doing them anyway. That senior official’s name? Joseph P Biden. So if the President himself can’t come to a logical line on what’s going on, what hope is there for his underlings? We’ll have the latest from the Red Sea carcrash. In Britain, the new Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is ramping up the rhetoric, saying that the country is "moving from a post-war to pre-war world”. It poses an important question: what exact will Britain’s 72 000 soldiers be doing in a global war against, say,  Russia’s 800 000? Selling hotdogs? Is it wise that NATO’s key figures all follow the old maxim: walk loudly and carry a small stick? Finally, Javier Milei’s running into issues with reality. He inherited 160% inflation - but thanks to months of painful austerity, inflation is now at a more manageable 200%. Like Salvador Allende before him, another radical South American government seems like it’s about to be broken apart on the wheel of hyper-inflation. Is this the teething troubles of a newborn economic tiger, or has the doom loop begun on libertarianism’s last stand?  ***You can further enjoy Multipolarity on Twitter.Or on Patreon.

With the world's biggest container ships presently rounding the Cape of Good Hope, Vasco da Gama-style, the Lads are calling it: inflation is coming back. This could prove to be a sticky situation for the West's leaders. After all, we were supposed to have seen out the worst by now. Everything was wagered on turning the page in anticipation of election season in the autumn. So what happens to all those carefully laid plans?  Meanwhile, Lloyd Austin didn’t tell his boss he was ducking out of work. Work From Home culture has made that a reality for many. Unfortunately for Lloyd, he is the Secretary of Defence while America’s gunboats bombard Yemen. Lloyd told sources that he barely missed a beat. But Philip thinks this approach speaks to a deeper dysfunction in DC. Who’s steering the Pentagon’s ship of fools? Finally, news is just in that The Solomon Islands no longer recognise Taiwan. Neither does Nicaragua. What can that mean? Yup, Beijing’s been on another spending spree, buying up influence in a brace of minor nations. With 17 countries recently having their Chinese diplomatic status upgraded,  we analyse the placement of the latest pieces in the global Go game. *** You know you really should follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/multipolaritypodAnd maybe even join us on Patreon: patreon.com/user?u=86737989

The Global American Empire has had its honour impugned by the Houthi Rebels, sometimes called a 'ragtag army'. But as The Lads point out, that characterisation just doesn't work. High-end weapons, Iranian training, and a capacity to melt into the landscape will make 'winning' the war for control of the Red Sea an operational nightmare. With no clear goals, no obvious win criteria, and ever-more provocation to come, they think the transatlantic alliance is stepping into quicksand. This is a premium episode sampler. To sign up and hear the full version, simply head across to Patreon, and spend $5, €5 or £5 a month. Cancel any time. https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

Remember the Ever Given? The boat that got stuck in the Suez Canal? Well, thanks to the Houthis, traffic in the canal is down by almost as much as when it was plugged. It seems the red sea crisis is about to inject an inflation spike much like the one the Ever Given gave us. Only, this time, the memes will be much less jolly. North of Israel, the war on two fronts is coming on nicely. With the assassination of Hamas’ deputy and a Hezbollah commander on Lebanese soil, we analyse the chances that they could throw their keffiyehs into the ring. Finally, a new report  shows that financialised US office space in the major metropoles is now regularly underwater. We’re returning to the question of whether it’s about to have its own 2008 moment. 

This week, we're pulling the scheduled predictions for 2024 episode, to do some century-wide predicting. The Houthi incursion into the Red Sea, that we've been reporting for a couple of months, has reached a new peak. It now seems as though it is more than simply a new front in a regional war. It may even threaten the Pax Americana. US attempts to form a counter-force coalition of the willing have foundered, and more and more it feels as though the forces of the BRICS would like the Red Sea as their own lake. As much as the Russians have the same design on the Black Sea. What's the future of US dominance in the face of its failure to match this open provocation? A columnist for Compact, UnHerd and many others, Malcom Kyeyune has spent years auditing US armaments and strategic strength. Here, the long-time friend of the show joins The Lads, to hash out whether the Red Sea is effectively a dead sea.

This week on Multipolarity, something a bit different. We want to map the DC brain, from the inside. Somewhere, inside the Washington Beltway, are a bunch of very smart people who often think alike. Be they at the State Department, the Pentagon, CIA, other parts of the Federal government, or think tanks, they have been tasked with projecting the global power of the world’s greatest empire. They make the decisions. Someone has to. And just as France has its Enarques. Or China has its unique mandarin examinations, the Foreign Policy bureaucracy of America have a common culture, a particular education, and a singular mindset. Yet it is so common, so super-dominant in our Western world, we seldom think to question its priors. This week, we’re lucky to be joined by the very model of the modern wonk-general. Carlos Roa.  A Contributing Editor at The National Interest, he was formerly the Executive Editor of the publication. He was Associate Editor of Horizons: Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development and an analyst at the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development. He knows DC from many different vantage points. We wanted to use his experience of being an insider to chart the anthropology of the Washington Deep State. To talk about what it is to be part of the Washington power elite - how you get started. What schools you go to. What parties you go to. Who you meet and the fundaments of the shared world view they regurgitate to each other. This episode is a Rake’s Progress, if you will. How To Get Ahead In DC, who you ned to step on, who you step round, to get to the top of the totem pole.***For the full expanded edition, 90 minutes with Carlos, get us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/posts/94647483

Most people have never heard of Guyana. Many think it’s in Africa.But Venezuelans know their CIA World Factbook inside and out. They’ve long claimed that its Western regions are rightfully theirs. And now that the Guyanese have struck oil, the Maduro regime want to take those areas by conquest.The question isn’t can Venezuela - population 30m - knock over Guyana - population 790 000. With the West presently preoccupied on two other continents, it’s: who is going to stop them?  This week the world’s biggest oil producers announced they’d be sharply cutting back on production – and the oil price fell. There’s something screwy going on in the market. But who exactly has the power to manipulate the world’s biggest most internationalised market?Finally, this week in Middle East Corner, we’ve got yet another round of damaged ships. *** Get us on Patreon, yo: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

The Bank of England is at risk of going broke — and it wants both a bailout from the taxpayer and the ability to raise taxes all of its own. Exsqueeze me, baking powder? We’ll be digging into the modern model of Central Bank Independence the B of E represents. And asking whether the big brains of monetary policy have actually invented much more than a self-licking ice cream cone. Yankee Go Home - that’s the subtext of Victor Orban’s latest speech. Orban is often ahead of the curve when it comes to European affairs. So has Big Vic said the quiet part out loud? As the Ukraine war runs out of gas is there a new mood stalking the continent? Finally, we’ll be presenting our new weekly roundup of Middle Eastern regional politics. As the Israel-Gaza conflict staggers on into a tentative truce, how long can they keep it in the deep freeze?

Ireland erupts in 'the biggest riots since 1916'. The United Kingdom government dishes out its final budget before oblivion beckons, confirming what we've known for a while. With interest repayments now nearly 10 per cent of spending, there is an Argentinian world of pain just over the horizon. There's something irredeemably broken about the British Isles this week. So in this Premium Episode, the lads are going hard and deep on Europe's North-Western Archipelago.  

Goalkeeper, rock singer, sex guru, anarcho-syndicalist libertarian strongman El Presidente: Javier Milei has lived the life twelve year old boys dream of. So what happens when a true force of nature meets the iron law of Argentinian decline? Can Captain Ancap defeat the spectre of El Peronismo? The Chinese may be dumping US Treasuries. We’ve heard the theory so often it’s begun to sound like a conspiracy. But now a famous economist has graphs to back it up. Are they right? Or is this just another punnet of gay frogs? Until recently, the Houthi used to be just a typical Middle Eastern rebel terror group: kalashnikovs, pipe mortars, colourful flowing robes. But hold it there stereotype-ers: the Houthi have had a fabulous makeover. As of this week, they’re capturing Israeli cargo ships with helicopters, abseiling and Go Pros. As the Gaza conflict stain continues to spread, is the new aerodynamic Houthi a sign of things to come in the region? *** Twitter: https://twitter.com/MultipolarPodPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

The U.S. and coalition troops have been attacked at least 40 times in Iraq and Syria since early October. Initially, we were told there were only a handful of injuries. Now we hear there are scores. Why did they lie? As the US fumbles the bag on its response to the Gaza Crisis, regional actors are scenting blood. This week, in a special edition, we’re going to be talking about America’s power vacuum in the gulf. The war is expanding horizontally – and vertically. Many are wondering whether the US can still save its allies – and even if it can save itself. Malcom Kyeyune has been wondering aloud too. In a three-part essay series for the New Statesman, he has been surveying America’s strategic bind. This week, he joins us once again, to war game the war games. We’ll be talking about the base attacks that kicked it off. About The Strange Case of a Declaration of War that signalled America no longer even wants to acknowledge how deep the sinkhole goes. And about the region’s overall future as its hegemon wilts. *** Get Malcom's essay here: https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-essay/2023/11/american-decline-strikes-bases-middle-eastSupport our fight against poorly-informed Pentagon hawks here: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

Halloween is when the freaks come out. So, this year, we're establishing our own fright night with Malcom Kyeyune, formerly Twitter's terrible infant. Tinkzorg, until his account was nixed. Now easily findable under another, NK-enjoying, moniker. The lads put him through his paces in a two hour fifteen Twitter Spaces session, that covered everything from nukes in the Middle East to things that are much, much worse than that... Please enjoy our gutbuster.

Recep Erodogan gave an inflammatory speech last week, in which he effectively backed the Hamas position, proclaiming them mujahideen - freedom fighters. Turkey, the lads suggest, is now openly trying to become a multipolar rallying-point for the muslim world. New polling suggests that Europeans think the Russian sanctions have been a disaster. Yet our present political class still have too much skin in the game to walk this one back. So how long must our emperors remain naked before the embarrasement becomes excruciating? In Britain, after two dire by-elections, the Conservative party is breaking records in all the wrong directions. With the party due to be reduced to a rump anyway, what will they do when Britain dips into a recession next year - and the rump becomes a morsel? 

In the next six weeks, anything can happen between Israel and Gaza. But in the next six months or two years, the consequences become in some ways more predictable. It is to this medium-range gaze that the lads now turn: looking at the US Presidential election, the EU's turn against Atlanticism, and the next energy shock, in a chock-full third premium edition of Multipolarity. To access, sign up on Patreon.

As Israel moves its artillery in to level Hamas, a new migrant crisis is brewing. Their Arab neighbours won’t take them - so with 2.1 million Gazans falling under every ECHR definition of refugee, is Europe’s always fractious migration politics about to fully fall off its perch? And while we’re on the subject, how is the war hotting up? After some humming and hawing about whether the IDF ground forces are ready to send the hummers in, we ask whether the Israelis and their allies are getting cold feet. Or is this the calm before a violent dessert storm?Off the naughty step. Donald Tusk has led a liberal anti-law & justice coalition to power in Poland, promising to put them back onto the path of being good European citizens. So what now for Europe’s internal axis of evil?

There's only one geopolitics story this week. This is our take.

Gold has lost its tiny mind. Traditionally, it rises in line with inflation surges. And falls with interest rate rises. Until now. Like a classic heist film, there’s a plot underway. Central banks, including China, are buying it up in bulk, preparing for a future of de-dollarization.  The fallout between India and Canada rumbles on, with India expelling 41 Canadian diplomats. The world’s most unlikely political rivalry might be terrible for international thriller writers, but as we’ll be pointing out, it’s also terrible for the West’s ability to project a united front against an increasingly voluble Developing World. Nearly twice the Irish GDP has been pumped into Biden’s big green bill, the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. So as renewable stocks collapse by 20 per cent in recent months, are we about to see his Democrats hoist on a wave of renewable company defaults? *** Catch us on Patreon, yo: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

Praise the Lord, it's Premium Week. In a gut buster 90 minute sesh, the lads are taking apart the most likely scenarios for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. The military strategies. The economic implications. From the whistle blowing on a troop carrier as the gate falls, to the itchy nuclear trigger fingers in Beijing and Washington, this is our full kino take on how the war would be won, and where it would get us. To listen, please go to Patreon and sign up for the $5 tier. You can cancel any time. https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

It hasn’t happened since 1914, but invading Mexico is suddenly back in fashion. Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton want to send US Security Forces across the Rio Grande. Vivek Ramaswamy wants a shock and awe campaign in the drug war. For all the obvious aesthetic value, this week, we consider: Is it actually a good idea to invade a neighbouring state? Ursula von der Leyen has launched an EU probe into Chinese EVs. Coincidentally, it seems, at the exact moment that Chinese EVs are rapidly overwhelming their German and French competitors. Is this yet more evidence that the old WTO world is breaking down under the intensity of Far Eastern competition? Or is it just an entirely randomly-timed, totally-above-board probe? Remember stock buybacks? When the QE financial firehose was first turned on, CEOs with nothing better to do found they could boost shareholder value by simply buying up their own equity with free money. But as rates normalise – and the tide goes out on all those overvalued corporations – it’s time to see who was swimming naked. 

The Three Seas. For much of eastern European history that’s meant chaos, conflict and conquest. These days, it’s a new initiative to link the Adriatic, the Baltic and the Black Seas. And it’s just added Greece as its 13th member. So is it a genetic freak of good intentions that will die naturally? Or is it the start of something altogether more toothy – a new kind of US dominance in Eastern Europe? The IRA is pumping money into the US economy. Meanwhile, over at the Fed, Jerome Powell is tightening the screws. It seems like fiscal and monetary policy in America are operating at cross-purposes. So is this macro-economic black magic designed to cast a love spell over the US electorate in the runup to 2024? And now, the Saudis have announced that they want to take oil back up to hundred dollars a barrel. Is their proposed spike a counter-spell to blast Biden out of the Beltway? *** Get us on Patreon, yo... https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989

It’s often been accused of being a talking shop. But now, the G20 is looking increasingly like yesterday’s talking shop. With the Brics having stolen their thunder two weeks back, is this week’s G20 meeting about as relevant as an Eagles reunion tour? The Chinese are being modest again. It took a teardown of the new Huawei phone to reveal the most alarming tech news of the year. The company has busted the chip sanctions, and successfully made ​​their own 5G model. Say hello to the Kirin 9000. Don’t you know there’s a war on? A shock report says that the US treasury is running a deficit as big as any in war time. Eight per cent of GDP. Two trillion dollars. But don’t worry - unemployment is the lowest since the 1960s. When none of the metrics make sense any more, is America entering its Brezhnev era? *** If you want to get us on Patreon for the Premium Episodes now up, and going forward, subscribe at: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86737989