
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
2,059 episodes — Page 25 of 42
Technical divergences show 'the risk of a correction is rising'
Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that the market is reaching all-time highs with 'weaker and weaker breadth and more narrow selectivity,' and that this dichotomy indicates that the risk of a correction is rising. Jonson says that investors who are significantly overweight in equities due to the market's hot run over the last year might want to pull back now to avoid a potential crunch as they watch this skirmish between the market's fundamentals and technicals play out. Also on the show, Nicholas Marshi, editor at BDCReporter.com, discusses the current earnings season and why he sees a 'golden age' ahead for business development companies, Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp. talks about the changing dynamics of the housing and real estate market, and Michael Robinson, chief technology strategist for Money Map Press, talks tech stocks in the Market Call.
Ally's Bell: Sort out the Fed and the market is ready to roll
Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, says that while the market has seen great numbers thus far this year, there is room to go higher -- potentially by double digits -- once the market has clarity on how the Federal Reserve will respond to inflationary pressures. Bell notes that there will be 'rockier days ahead,' but she is optimistic not only for the rest of 2021 but for next year as well, noting that most of the red flags are worrisome but not real triggers for potential protracted downturn. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new fund from a big-name fund company that only just entered the exchange-traded fund space his pick as 'ETF of the Week,' and legendary financial talk-show host Moe Ansari of Compak Asset Management, lets Chuck turn the mic around on him as he talks stocks in the Market Call.
Marc Chaikin: Second-guessing the market top doesn't make sense
Veteran market observer Marc Chaikin, the founder of Chaikin Analytics, says that the market has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows since November of 2020, and that upward grind is likely to continue for at rest of the year -- Chaikin thinks the market will gain another 10 percent by year's end -- so investors who are worrying about problems and second-guessing the market's moves are hurting themselves and their portfolios. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com, which shows that the average consumer has more than a hundred dollars of unused (and potentially lost) gift cards at home, author Scott Jarred talks about his new book on how consumers can 'Future Hack' their financial lives, and Chuck answers a question from a listener who is unhappy with how former employers have been running his old retirement-savings plans.
NFCU's Frick: Nervous consumers 'are missing the big picture'
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that nervous investors are worried about numbers that are much more solid than they appear in headlines. Frick notes that retail sales, for example, could come down 5 percent from current levels and they'd still be booming. He sees strong economic growth even as the headline numbers start to reflect the movement from recovery mode to pre-pandemic normals. Also on the show, Adam Rozencwagj of Goehring and Rozencwajg says that a decade-long bear market in commodities has ended and that there are strong signs for a bull market ahead, helped along by the localized supply shortages arising from the pandemic. And Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of Stock Traders' Almanac, says that the stock market is likely to see heightened volatility but mostly sideways movement through the fall.
New Constructs' Trainer says 3 big-name stocks are headed for trouble
David Trainer, president and founder of New Constructs puts technology giants Amazon, Alphabet and PayPal in the Danger Zone this week, noting that the companies are among the companies in the Standard and Poor's 500 that are most likely to miss earnings estimates for the upcoming reporting season, thanks to investments in other companies that ultimately distort their financial picture. Also on the show, Chad Moutry discusses the findings of the July Economic Outlook survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics, author Christopher Cox talks about his book 'The Deadline Effect' and offers suggestions for how procrastinators -- like Chuck -- can get things done before the last minute, fixed-income manager Jerry Paul of ICON Advisers stops by for a bonus NAVigator talking opportunities for yield in closed-end funds, and Chuck answers an audience-member's question on federal account protections.
Fairlead's Stockton: Technical struggles are actually good news
Katie Stockton, founder and managing director at Fairlead Strategies, says that the market's recent volatility has changed investor sentiment but that mood change actually is creating buying opportunities. Stockton says she does not see much pressure for a correction in the market now, in spite of the market's nervousness; she notes that much of the downside nervousness is around mega-cap stocks, again creating opportunities for investors away from the headlines. Looking at fundamentals, Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy for WisdomTree Asset Management, says that the current market theme is 'inflation, inflation, inflation' and that the reflation/inflation story will likely drive much of the market action for the next year or two. In the NAVigator segment, Patrick Galley of RiverNorth Capital Management talks about how the narrowing of discounts in muni-bond closed end funds doesn't change the attractiveness of the asset class, nor make its relatively high tax-equivalent yields less attractive. And in the Market Call, Clark Kendall of Kendall Capital gives his take on both stocks and ETFs.
A capital-spending boom will carry global markets for years
Ken McAtamney, manager of the William Blair International Leaders Fund, says that an 'underinvestment in [capital expenditures] around the world' has created a void that is now being filled around the world. He noted that beyond physical infrastructure in the United States and Europe, there will be expansive spending on data and digital infrastructure around the globe that will carry the recovery into the next few years. McAtamney is positive on developed Europe and emerging markets -- and specifically China -- as areas that should shine coming out of the pandemic recovery. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com focuses on inflation fears with his pick for the 'ETF of the Week,' Meredith Stoddard of Fidelity Investments discusses the firm's 2021 Couples and Money survey, and Charlie Farrell of Northstar Investment Advisors talks stocks and ETFs in the Market Call.
TD Ameritrade's Linahan: 'Get used to seeing days like this'
Stock market volatility is up as the markets try to sort out whether inflationary increases are permanent and when the Federal Reserve will decide it's time to raise interest rates, and that backdrop -- coupled with renewed fears of how Covid-19 could impact the business world -- should make volatility the norm for at least the remainder of the year, according to JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist for TD Ameritrade. Kinahan says the market 'is telling us that you shouldn't be expecting inflation for awhile,' and he notes that the market's technicals are mostly in line with the strong fundamentals to make it that a crash or a recession doesn't seem to be in the offing. In Left Brain Thinking today, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks about the durability of the cashless society movement and says that Visa, PayPal and Square are poised for massive growth on that front, without even factoring in cryptocurrencies as a future form of cashless payment. And in the Market Call, financial adviser Adam Lampe of Mint Wealth Management talks stocks.
Leuthold's Paulsen says fundamentals are pushing for a rally
Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, says that inflation is the big risk facing the market, but he downplays the potential for inflation to last once supply-chain issues and demand levels normalize post-pandemic. Meanwhile, he makes the case that the stock market could rise from now through the end of the year and still enter 2022 relatively cheap, with the Standard and Poor's 500 trading at less than 20 times earnings, a level which would keep the bull market rolling. Also on the show, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses Americans' tipping habits and how they talked a better game than they played during the coronavirus epidemic, and Bernie Horn, manager of Polaris Global Value fund talks about where in the world he's investing and what stands out to him now in the Market Call.
AAM's Colyer: 'Don't fight the Fed' now means 'Let it ride'
Scott Colyer, chief executive officer at Advisors Asset Management, says that for all the talk that the Federal Reserve has started talking about hiking interest rates, he doesn't see it happening until 2022 or beyond, and that means that investors don't have to change strategies now to stay in line with the central; bank. He expects returns for the rest of the year to loosely resemble what happened during the first six months, an upward grind made on the back of increasing worries. Also on the show, Dave Stinnett, head of Vanguard Strategic Retirement Consulting, talks about the 20th anniversary edition of Vanguard's 'How America Saves' study, David Trainer, founder of New Constructs, puts the Robinhood IPO in 'the Danger Zone,' and Rob Spivey, director of research for Valens Securities, talks stocks in the Market Call.
AGF's Valliere: 'The market isn't fearful of a breakout of inflation or rates'
Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, says that the Federal Reserve wants the economy to run hot and is likely to let things keep rolling longer before raising rates to potentially put the brakes on. That, he says, will be well down the line, as he expects a good economy -- though not necessarily great -- for the next few quarters. He notes that a key factor will be monetary policy, but he notes that the current yield on Treasuries is a sign that the market is not fearful of an imminent breakout of inflation or rates, which is why a recession is 'not remotely imminent.' Also on the show, Dan Omstead of Tekla Capital -- which runs four health-care oriented closed-end funds -- discusses the post-pandemic outlook for biotech and healthcare investing, and Eric Lynch of the Scharf Funds talks about 'quality relative value investing' in the Market Call.
NW Mutual's Schutte: This market's not ready for recession
Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, says that while worries about rising inflation and interest rates have some market observers talking about the potential for recession, he believes they're ahead of the economy right now. Schutte says the economic cycle still has room to roll -- and that the market will pick up as fears of long-term inflation in the coming few quarters. The remainder of the show has a distinct focus on income, and ways to generate and protect it in the inflationary/rising rate environment. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a fund that pays monthly income and that has an 8 percent current yield his 'ETF of the Week,' and Renee Schaaf, president of retirement and income solutions for Principal Financial Group, talks about the pros and cons of purchasing annuities under these changing market conditions.
RiverTwice's Karabell: 'Were still living in a deflationary world'
Zachary Karabell, president of River Twice Capital, says that short-term bottlenecks and supply-chain issues are not systemic inflation, and while he foresees inflationary spikes, he does not believe that long-term upward price pressure is about to change the broad economic picture. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, he notes that the global economy could see a series of rolling recoveries, leading to repeated cycles of good news as the world re-opens from the pandemic. Also on the show, Catherine Golladay of Charles Schwab and Co. discusses the latest 401k Participant Survey, in which Americans discuss just how much money they believe they must amass to live out their days comfortably, Chuck answers an audience question on passive investing and, in the Market Call, Bryan Koslow of Clarus Group talks about the exchange-traded funds he favors now.
Ariel's Bobrinskoy: Expect inflation to hurt growth stocks
Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman of Ariel Investments and a noted value manager, says that he expects inflation to be more than 'transitory,' and that if prices start to rise, it could spell some trouble for growth stocks. Meanwhile, even with the markets around record-high levels, he believes there are still plenty of reasonably priced companies that should help value investors continue their recent comeback. Also on the show, Zachary Karabell of RiverTwice Capital discusses his latest book on the reclusive Brown Brothers Harriman and why it has been an American powerbroker, Alia Dudum of Lending Club talks about the firm's latest Reality Check Paycheck-to-Paycheck research, which shows that Americans are struggling to stay ahead of their bills, and Chuck talks about his latest adventures in consolidating his personal accounts.
Meme stock investors are changing risks for the rest of us
Rick Bookstaber, chief risk officer at Fabric RQ, talks about the changing face of risk in the current market environment, running from how rising inflation and interest rates play in to how the 'gamefying' of the market and the eruption of meme stocks that have defied traditional market forces has the potential to impact all investors, even the classic buy-and-hold types who avoid hot stock plays. Also on the show, Anqi Chen, research economist at the Center for Retirement Research, discusses Americans' need for long-term care and how most people are unprepared to cope with the problem, Stan Treger, behavioral scientist at Morningstar, covers research on how few investors want cryptocurrency available in their retirement plans, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a Fidelity sector fund in the Danger Zone, and Chuck answers a question about non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and whether he's joining the latest investment trend.
Strategic Frontier's Goerz expects 5 or more rate hikes by '23
David Goerz, chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, sees trouble ahead for a market that is overvalued, with an economy that he believes is headed for trouble unless government spending is reduced and with a bond market that he finds troubling. Goerz expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates once this year, and says there will be four -- but as many as eight -- rate increases next year, with the hope being that many hikes will ultimately return the economy to normal by the end of 2023. Also on the show, Mark Newton of Newton Advisors says the market's technicals suggest a 10 percent correction is in the cards playing out right now, but that the market is likely to rebound from that into the end of the year, plus legendary activist investor Phillip Goldstein talking about the diminishing rights of shareholders in closed-end funds, and Arynton Hardy of Hardy Capital Investments talks ETFs in the Market Call.
Clocktower's Papic: Expect inflation, volatility and a summer bond sell-off
Marko Papic, chief strategist for the Clocktower Group, says that he expects an inflation surprise to the upside -- bigger than the market forecasts -- which is likely to upset the market, adding to volatility and limiting the forward potential for stocks. It has him looking to foreign markets to generate bigger returns for the remainder of the year and potentially beyond. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to the potential of blockchain with his ETF of the Week, Jacque Reardon discusses Franklin Templeton's latest Voice of the American Worker study -- which shows that people are redefining what it means to retire -- and in the Market Call, David Marcus of the Evermore Global Value fund talks about where he sees blood running in the streets to find his buys.
Virtus' Terranova: 2021 is about 'how much money can I lose'
Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says that the market's rebound from early-pandemic lows has investors tempted into concentrated portfolios, pursuing the hot sectors and big winners, but he says the remainder of the year will be about risk, and 'reintroducing diversification by asset class, geography, equity size class and strategy.' Terranova says he is optimistic not just for the future but for the next 10 to 15 years, but he says the markets will demand that investors spread their risks around and manage their return expectations to ride it out to those long-term gains. Also on the show, Freddy Garcia of Left Brain Wealth Management says that investors should be focused on sustainable revenue growth -- rather than whether a stock fits the classic growth or value labels -- to find companies that can move forward regardless of market conditions, and Tom Plumb of the Plumb Balanced Fund and the Plumb Equity Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Cumberland's Mousseau: Inflation isn't 'transitory,' it's returning to normal
John Mousseau, chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors, says that worries about rising inflation are overblown given current conditions, and he says investors should expect higher inflation but only to the extent that it returns to pre-pandemic levels over the next year. Also on the show, Francesca Ortegren discusses a recent study done by Clever Real Estate showing how the pandemic continues to damage Americans' finances, Chuck answers a question about Section 72T withdrawals from retirement accounts, and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners talks practical and tactical investing with ETFs in the Market Call.
Expect more volatility, less gains for the remainder of the year
Different analysts taking a fundamental and a technical view of the market both think that strong conditions will carry into the second half of 2021, but think returns may be muted compared to the last six months. Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Portfolio Solutions, says that 'the growth rate of the growth rate' is slowing, which is likely to slow the market or at least make it more choppy. Meanwhile, Jeffrey Bierman of TheoTrade.com says the market is overbought now from a technical standpoint, which eventually should play out in a correction and heightened volatility. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors and the executive chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about the narrowing discounts in closed-end funds but warns investors not to wait for them to widen before buying, and Daniel Kline, lead advisor at 7Investing.com talks stocks in the Market Call.
Cambria's Faber: U.S. outlook is depressing but 'there's massive opportunity elsewhere'
Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer for Cambria Investments, says that the U.S. stock market's return to record high levels has given it little room to move forward from here -- with the exception of value stocks, which remain attractive despite a 'face-ripper' of a year -- but he believes that while investors can ride the current trends until they change, he notes that the biggest opportunities are around the world right now. He notes that most people are too focused on America in their asset allocations, but they now are looking at cheaper names and bigger growth potential abroad. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes an actively managed financial-sector fund his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services and The DRIP Investor, talks about the art and science of selecting stocks using his firm's Quadrix system in the Market Call.
Michael Falk on recovery, reacting and not recovering in these times
Michael Falk of Focus Consulting Group -- who joins Chuck every three months to discuss the market, investing and his personal battle with Lou Gehrig's Disease -- responds to fears of rising inflation and interest rates, whether that changes his disdain for bonds, but also talks baseball, how the pandemic was a stroke of good fortune for him and much more. Also on the show, Michael Dominguez, author of 'Armchair Real Estate Millionaire' discusses how the pandemic and the hot housing market have changed things for income-oriented property buyers, and Marina Gross of Natixis' Portfolio Research and Consulting Group talks about how financial advisers are bridging the gap between their own realistic market expectations and the wild hopes of clients/individual investors.
Vantagepoint's Wicker: Better profit margins, GDP will push stocks higher
Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer for Vantagepoint Investment Advisors and ICMA Retirement Corp., says that despite concerns about inflation and interest rates creeping up that have dampened market enthusiasm, he expects that 'the combined effects of better GDP and better margins are going to be good for equities over the next 12 months.' He discusses the sectors and areas that he expects to lead the way higher and those he wants to avoid in The Big Interview. Also on the show, Chuck discusses his feelings about cost-to-yield on dividend-paying stocks, Ted Rossman talk about a Bankrate.com study on how much investors saved from remote work during the pandemic and how much they could suffer financially from the return to normal, and Gary Bradshaw, co-manager of Hodges Blue Chip Equity Income, covers stocks that he believes will be consistent performers in the Market Call.
Manager says the dogs of the Dow are howling a happy tune
Dave King, head of income and growth strategies for Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says that income-oriented investors should be revisiting a popular old strategy -- the Dogs of the Dow -- buying the highest-yielding stocks of the benchmark index. The strategy has fallen out of favor in recent years, while value investing has struggled, King says, but now is a good time to look for more yield out of large-cap stocks. Also on the show, David Goodsell of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight discusses survey data showing that average American investors are expecting historically high returns from stocks -- above 17 percent before inflation -- for the year ahead, David Trainer of New Constructs talks about an accounting problem that misstates the financial condition of many companies and, in the Market Call, Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund talks 'absolute value' and whether the current market leaves any stocks that meet his tough valuation standards.
Asbury's Kosar: Despite obstacles, market and tech could make a run
John Kosar, chief market strategist for Asbury Research, says that the market is overextended as measured by a number of technical indicators, but breakouts visible this week in technology sectors suggest that there is meaningful ground to be made now, as much as 10 percent in tech stocks and sectors in short order. Also on the show, Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial Services discusses the state of closed-end fund discounts, and how current conditions appear to be a repeat of what the industry saw after the financial crisis of 2008, Byron Reese discusses his new book, 'Wasted: How We Squander Time, Money, and Natural Resources-and What We Can Do About It,' and Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at TFC Financial Management, talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.
Schwab's Kleintop: Expect bad market reactions to good economic news
Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global market strategist for Charles Schwab and Co., says that the stock market is likely to have an inverse reaction to economic news, with bad news being greeted happily because it could prompt the Federal Reserve to unwind controls more slowly, whereas positive developments may be viewed as inflationary. These attitudes could lead to heightened volatility for the remainder of the year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a real-asset play his ETF of the Week, Greg McBride of Bankrate.com discusses how investors currently and implausibly favor real estate and cash over stocks as a long-term investment, and Sam Hendel of Easterly Investment Partners talks about value investing in the Market Call.
Pandemic forced a focus on life's 'most important things'
More than nine in 10 retirees now agree that having a purpose -- and typically a purpose that revolves around family, but also on staying fit and active and possibly semi-employed -- is a key to a successful retirement, with the focus on purpose seemingly coming out of the slowdown and malaise of the pandemic. Scott Thoma from Edward Jones discusses those results from a recent survey, and how the pandemic has made people reset, reconsider and reprioritize their retirement plans. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research examines Revolve Group, an online retailer with growth prospects beyond the reopening that make it an ideal recovery play, Ray Kennedy of Hotchkis and Wiley talks high yield investing specifically and fixed-income more broadly, and Randy Warren of Warren Financial mixes fundamentals, with top-down analysis and some technicals to select stocks in the Market Call.
GMO's Chiappinelli: Eerie parallels with '99 show market on edge of a speculative mania
Peter Chiappinelli, portfolio strategist at GMO Asset Management, says that the market is showing similarities to 1999, which proved to be a great market opportunity that ended in a bear market. Chiappinelli says that every bubble has expensive stocks, but also some wild speculators -- people he calls 'the crazies' -- who are wildly speculative and bullish. They arrived about a year ago, Chiappinelli says, and it's a sign that the market rally has reached its final stages. Also on the show, Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors talks about why technicals show signs of a sideways, range-bound market for the summer, Josh Cohen, head of institutional defined contribution for PGIM, discusses the current status and future of retirement savings programs, and Chuck answers a question about short squeezes and whether investors should jump into them.
ProShares' Hyman: Inflation will hurt bonds, but won't have a big impact on stocks
Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist for ProShares, says that the ongoing spike in inflation will force bonds into a brief tailspin, but won't do much to damage equity markets, which he says are trending 'a little toward Goldilocks.' Also on the show, Catherine Yoshimoto of FTSE Russell talks about the upcoming, 33rd annual 'Russell Reconstitution,' and how it reflects broad changes in the market, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a Chinese IPO in 'The Danger Zone,' and Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Asset Management, talks about current investment themes and exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Osterweis' Vataru: Inflation and the market feel different this time
Eddy Vataru, portfolio manager for the Osterweis Total Return Fund, says that with the Federal Reserve acknowledging this week that higher rates are coming -- even if it's not for 18 months -- and working to manage inflation, it's clear that the central bank is starting to change its tune on stimulus and quantitative easing to avoid future problems. He notes that up to now, the Fed has been playing with 'the same playbook' it has used in past downturns and crises, but that the current situation involves a faster snap-back and recovery period, and that the Fed's playbook has been amped up by aggressive stimulus, which he says needs to change to avoid future market problems. Also on the show, Howard Dvorkin, chairman of Debt.com, talks about how people can make the most of Amazon Prime Days next week without letting the urge to splurge get the best of them, Daniel Ashcraft of Gateway Investment Advisers talks about using covered-call strategies to get more consistent results during times of heightened volatility, and Lauren Hill, research analyst and portfolio manager at Westwood Investment Management talks large-cap stocks in the Market Call.
Fed isn't surprising or scaring anyone, but may not be helping much either
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist for the Channel Capital Research Institute, says in the Big Interview that the Federal Reserve has made its plans clear, and that is that rates and inflation will rise in the next year or two, but they stopped short of any action that would make nervous investors leave the market now. He suggested that investors should stand pat with well-balanced, diversified portfolios as they wait for the paths of rates and inflation to become more clear. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of TFTrends.com makes a unique precious metals fund his 'ETF of the Week,' Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com discusses how Americans are preparing to overextend themselves, raising credit card balances in the process as they unleash their unfulfilled desires of the last 16 months. In the Market Call, James Abate of the Centre Funds -- portfolio manager of Centre American Select Equity (DHAMX) -- talks stocks.
Wells Fargo's Wren: Expect inflation to settle down in '22
Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says that the big question dogging the market right now is whether the recent spike in inflation is transitory or longer lasting. He sees inflation staying high for most of the rest of 2021 before normalizing, meaning that the market's growth in 2022 is not likely to be curtailed by rising prices. Also on the show, Brian Gahsman of the AlphaCentric Robotics and Automation Fund talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses this week's column, where he gives you three reasons for optimism and three more for pessimism given current market conditions.
Baird's McAllister: Don't get too excited about inflation
Duane McAllister, portfolio manager for the Baird Funds, says that the Federal Reserve is likely to sustain its inflation projections but says that he doesn't expect interest rates to spike as inflation goes up, citing strong international demand and other factors as keeping rates in check. Also on the show, Jim Welsh of Smart Portfolios talks technical analysis, noting that he sees the market taking a 7 to 10 percent downturn over the next few months before proving that drop to be a buying opportunity based on a rebound in the fourth quarter, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses how coronavirus changed Americans' habits with rewards credit cards, and Oliver Pursche of Wealthspire talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
BCA Research's Berezin on 'The Crypto Impossibility Theorem'
Peter Berezin, chief global strategist and director of research at BCA Research, discusses the "Crypto Impossibility Theorem' -- which states that cryptocurrencies will only be viable if they can offer a higher return than stocks, and why he believes that won't happen, and will lead to struggles that distract the market and slow appreciation. In the long run, he expects interest in cryptocurrencies to diminish and the market to benefit as a result. Also on the show, Mike Brown of Expertise.com discusses the high percentage of consumers who bought insurance policies during the pandemic but now wish they hadn't made the purchase, Kyle Guske of New Constructs highlights the problems inherent to 'street earnings' in The Danger Zone, and Chuck answers an audience member's question about bond investments in a rising-rate environment.
iShares Chaudhuri: Solid recovery isn't going away when the reopening ends
Gargi Chaudhuri, head of investment strategy for iShares, Americas says that while the reopening is driving growth right now, she expects capital expenditure and infrastructure spending to keep the economy rolling into and through 2022. She also notes that while the pandemic shutdown was a global event, the reopening is happening in pockets which will mean that different regions -- and industries -- will be coming back and gaining steam at different times, which should prolong the global recovery, although she notes that central bankers will have to act prudently to keep the underlying conditions primed for growth. Turning to technical analysis, Dan Zanger of ChartPattern.com sees nothing but bullish patterns and a breakout to new highs ahead, saying he expects the market to roll into the early summer before taking a breather come late July and August; even that respite, he said, will not stop the upward momentum. Also on the show, Bob Long, chief executive officer at Conversus, discusses how 'tender funds' can give investors access to private equity and smooth out portfolio performance, and we revisit a recent chat with Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark.
Invesco's Leger: Like Frankie said, 'The best is yet to come'
Talley Leger, senior investment strategist at Invesco, recognizes the various tunes the market is humming over inflation, interest rates and other concerns, but he looks at earnings growth and valuations and is singing a different tune, Frank Sinatra's 'The Best is Yet to Come.' He explains why in the Big Interview. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a fund based on a famous investment guru's strategy his 'ETF of the Week," Meredith Stoddard, vice president of life event planning at Fidelity Investments, discusses research on the financial, emotional, social and physical tolls that caregivers endure as they help their loved ones, and we revisit a recent Market Call interview talking exchange-traded funds with Chuck Self from iSectors.com
Oxford Economics' Bostjancic: Reopening recovery comes with 'bumpiness'
Kathy Bostjancic, chief US financial economist, says the current recovery 'is what we've been waiting for' and is a story of spending and pent-up demand tempered by a global supply shortage that is generating inflation and symbolizes the bumps in the road that should temper consumers' enthusiasm. Bostjancic notes that getting supply and demand rebalanced could take a year or more, with the meantime being when inflation and interest rates could grow into a significant problem. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks reopening plays, noting that 'The truth-teller will be the earnings and what the revenues have done a quarter or two past this,' portfolio manager Nate Velarde of Chautauqua Capital Management discusses the areas where he thinks investors can develop long-term investment convictions now, and Aliza Vigderman of Security.org covers a new survey showing that more than 20 percent of Americans experience identity theft in the aftermath of a relationship breaking up.
Economist Kotlikoff says to dump long-term bonds ahead of high inflation
Lawrence Kotlikoff, an economist and the founder of Maxifi.com, says that the current increase in inflation is nothing compared to what he fears is coming, which he said could be several years of the high single digits all the way up to hyperinflation levels. Kotlikoff says that investors need to factor what inflation will do to the ability of their financial nest egg to maintain purchasing power and fund a lengthy retirement. Also on the show, Leo Leydon of Financial Focus Advisory Services discusses technical analysis, noting that the market is looking like it is in a sideways pattern that could last for the summer, and David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com talks mutual funds and notes that one hot, popular fund company looks to him like a train wreck that's on the track with unavoidable damage dead ahead.
Economist Gruenwald: 'This is not a normal recovery'
Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S and P Global Ratings says that the economy is being turned back on in the middle to late stages of the economic cycle, which is different from the standard exit from a downturn, raising questions about the impact and effectiveness of policy decisions going forward. Still, he remains constructive about the market, noting that the U.S. economy could come out of the pandemic without too much scarring, with reasonable growth rates -- much lower than current levels --with markets remaining reasonably calm as the economy gets sorted out. Also on the show, Minouche Shafik, director of London School of Economics and Political Science, discusses her new book, 'What We Owe Each Other: A New Social Contract for a Better Society,' and Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments, talks long-term thematic investing in the Market Call.
Mackay Shields' DiMella: Munis were the surprise of the pandemic
Bob DiMella, co-head of municipal managers at MacKay Shields, discusses the surprise that muni bonds have been since the start of the pandemic, coming through what were expected to be tough times with superior performance among fixed-income investments and positioned to be a leader in the bond space amid rising interest rates and inflation in the future. Also on the show, Randy Anderson of the Griffin Capital Institutional Access Real Estate fund discusses the changing opportunities in real estate investing now, Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF talks technical analysis and why he dislikes financials and energy stocks right now, and Barry James of the James Advantage Funds talks about stocks -- and why he actually favors financial companies -- in the Market Call.
Ritholtz: 'Great Reset' economic change will impact generations
Barry Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that the coronavirus pandemic and the current re-opening have economic parallels to what the United States experienced after World War II, noting that key industries and economic conditions will be changed forever. He believes that current concerns about inflation are overblown when viewed through a long-term lens, and expects economic stimulus -- funded at historically low rates for Treasury yields -- to continue to stoke expansion and recovery. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends looks at a new, actively managed fund for his ETF of the Week and Chuck Self, chief investment officer at iSectors, talks commodities ETFs and more in the Market Call.
Intrepid's Travis: Expect a battle between the Fed and the marketplace
Mark Travis, president of Intrepid Capital Management, says in the Market Call that there will be a battle going forward between the Federal Reserve and the marketplace and Treasury yields -- where various economic pressures will meet -- but that the brewing fight over rates and inflation have yet to negatively impact the stock market. It does have him looking at some securities and favoring their bonds over the stocks as he looks for 'compounders' that can grow in this environment. Also on the show, Jan Eeckhout, author of 'The Profit Paradox: How Thriving Firms Threaten the Future of Work,' Ken Tumin of DeositAccounts.com on a survey of how people are putting record amounts into bank accounts despite payouts that amount to nothing, and Chuck takes an audience member's question on what to do with checks that she neglected to deposit in a timely fashion.
SLC's Mullarkey: Measured inflation won't derail the market
Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Management, says that while inflation is rising, he doesn't expect it to reach the kinds of dangerous levels that could crash the stock market. He notes that, historically, markets do well when inflation is under 4 percent, provided that spikes are avoided, which he believes the central banks globally will control. Still, he has tempered expectations for the future, noting that he expects stocks to return 5 to 7 percent in 2022. Also on the show, Washington Post columnist Michelle Singletary discusses her new book, 'What to Do With Your Money When Crisis Hits,,' and Peter Donisanu, president/chief financial strategist for Franklin Madison Advisors talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
AssetMark's Thomas: People are too worried about a meltdown
Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark, says that individual investors are focusing too much on near-term risk management at the expense of their long-term goals, noting that anyone with time frames of five years or more can be confident that current concerns about inflation, rising interest rates and more will not cause long-run economic scarring. He believes that domestic markets will remain stronger than international markets, he suggests that governments and central banks are prepared to prop up economies against deep recessions and notes that America is well positioned for the future due to technology being such a key cornerstone to future growth. Also on the show, Kimberly Flynn of XA Investments discusses how financial firms should be developing new products overseas that will ultimately find an audience in the US, Vivian Tsai of the College Savings Foundation discusses research on how the pandemic has changed attitudes and savings/spending plans for future college students, and Scott Klimo of Saturna Capital and the Amana Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.
Zuma Wealth's Spath: 'Murky market' is correcting now
Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says the market seems to be in the middle of a correction now, with a choppy trend that is challenging investors' patience and judgment. She says investors are having a tough time determining if inflationary pressures are transient and temporary or if they represent real trouble, and she says that story will play out in the currency and cryptocurrency markets as well as in the bond market later this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks a core fund that takes a leveraged approach as his ETF of the Week, and Garvin Jabusch, chief investment officer for Green Alpha Advisors, talks about 'Next Economy Investing' in the Market Call.
CFRA's Stovall: The market doesn't swoon in June
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research says that there are plenty of reasons for investors to be concerned about the stock market now, though he notes that since World War II the market has mostly avoided significant downturns in the month of June. He is not opposed to turning defensive and rotating into health care and consumer staples -- rather than retreating from potential troubles -- but he relies on stock market history as 'virtual valium,' a calming agent that reminds him that investors who get out of the market historically tend to do worse than investors who ride out the troubles. 'It is typically better to buy than bail,' he says, and he suggests that investors should be looking for things to be buying next, as the market gets volatile as the economy adjusts to reopening from the pandemic. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research talks about how the changing market has the firm looking for more growth-at-a-reasonable-price picks,and that Salesforce.com looks great when evaluated that way now, and Chris Retzler of the Needham Small Cap Growth Fund talks small companies in the Market Call.
Axel Merk: The market is due for a respite, or worse
Axel Merk of Merk Investments says that the stock market is due for a correction, but not necessarily a bear market, noting that the economic recovery has gone far and that the reopening will fight some of the downward pressures. Merk says that while the market is seen as being 'different' right now, the traditional 'sell in May and go away' thinking might be in place, at least through Labor Day; he's been protecting profits and taking chips off the table but noted that he would not be going short the market now. Also on the show, Simon Zhen of MyBankTracker.com talks about just how much change Americans will stop to pick up, Chuck takes a question about travel insurance now, and David Barse of XOut Capital talks about stocks and enhancing indexes in the Market Call.
Harry Dent expects the market to get cut in half, and soon
Market forecaster Harry S. Dent Jr. says the next stock market crash -- which he thinks could hit as early as the next six weeks -- will be a 50 percent decline in two to three months, but he says that the decline is a re-set needed to pass a bubble and that the carnage will be over by late in 2022 or 2023. 'The upside is limited, the downside is somewhere between 65 and 80 percent on stocks,' he says in an extended Big Interview. Dent says that Bitcoin has been 'the best leading indicator of the market,' and he notes that if Bitcoin's mid-April peak holds up -- and the crypto is down about 50 percent since then -- then the market would be due to start its significant fall by the end of June. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs discusses a new and different way that some companies are hiding some troubling numbers from investors, and Chuck talks about the various forms of risk and how investors -- even nervous ones -- want exposure to all of them.
Lacy Hunt: Economic rebound/recovery will be short-lived
Economist Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management says that the economic rebound and recovery is peaking now, in terms of growth rates, and he believes that later in the year economic growth will be well below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. He believes that the stimulus efforts will prove to be temporary help, but will leave behind debt that will lead the economy to 'death by slow strangulation.' Also on the show, Mark Asaro of Noble Wealth Management talks about how closed-end funds can be used to build a paycheck-replacement system for investors, and Eric Boughton of Matisse Capital Management discusses closed-end funds, master-limited partnerships and more in the Market Call.
A behavioral finance expert succeeds by going his own way
Meir Statman, professor at Santa Clara University and one of the world's leading experts on behavioral finance, talks about the approach he took when looking into making a major donation of his own money, and the decision-making that prompted him to give generously 'with a warm hand,' rather than waiting until his death. He also discusses why he doesn't rebalance his portfolio, or stick to a common asset allocation for a man his age, how he has given up on using money-market funds and replaced them with short-term bond funds -- despite the cost of occasional fluctuations -- and more. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com puts a new fund based on an index that is built to achieve consistent performance into the ETF of the Week spotlight, and Craig Copeland of the Employee Benefits Research Institute covers the group's most recent retirement-confidence survey.