Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Brian Frank, manager of the Frank Value Fund -- who will stay in cash when he can't find stocks cheap enough to meet his metrics for good value -- says that the market's decline in early 2022 put a lot more stocks onto his radar as prospective buys, but he says the market remains expensive as a whole. In The Big Interview, Stan Majcher, portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management, says that the energy market -- the one sector of the market that was up during the first half of the year -- remains attractive after its recent run up and despite market pressures created by war in Ukraine and global supply-chain issues. He believes oil remains significantly underpriced, giving strong potential for the sector to keep rolling for the foreseeable future despite the likelihood of a global recession. Also on the show, Sarah Foster discusses a recent Bankrate.com survey showing that consumers who are influenced into purchases by social media have a high -- and increasing -- level of regrets over their spending decisions.

John Blank, chief economist and chief investment strategist for Zacks Investment Research, says that the limited options facing Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell leave the economy in a situation where inflation will be sticky and the market will be more stable but likely more sideways, at least until pricing pressure eases. "The soft landing isn't what's going to happen," Blank says. "The Fed's going to get comfortable with a higher level of prices and rice inflation and just stop because it can't do anything about this." Zach Jonson, chief investment officer at Stack Financial Management, says that the market's technicals are showing that recent gains are more likely a bear market rally rather than the start of a new bull market, largely because there hasn't been much breadth and support to the gains. Until the rally reflects greater participation -- with fewer companies making new lows -- Jonson says the current move up is likely a temporary one. And Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation and investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute kicks things off talking about how the 60-40 portfolio is alive and well despite an awful start to the year that could hold up and make this one of the worst years ever for that classic balanced approach to investing.

Laura Geritz, founder and portfolio manager at Rondure Global Advisors, says that deglobalization of markets is making it more important than ever that investors pick great stocks at reasonable prices, focusing more on the company-by-company picture than looking at the macro outlook. Another part of that change in mindset is that investors might want to sell into the market's rally, which has been driving up prices of riskier assets, rather than looking at every downturn as a chance to try to buy the next rebound. In a wide-ranging interview, Geritz also makes a case for China's stock market -- which she calls "out-of-sync with the rest of the world" -- being poised for a big recovery while the rest of the globe struggles through inflation problems. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Door Dash in "The Danger Zone" and explains why he believes the stock has a lot further to fall, Barry Metzger of Charles Schwab discusses the firm's latest survey of active traders and how its clients are reacting to shifting market conditions but prolonged inflation, and Chris Mack of Harding Loevner Global Equity fund talks stocks in the Market Call.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that the Federal Reserve has been "clueless," making moves that have actually been inflationary, making it more costly for companies to do business and having companies pass those costs on to consumers. That has created an environment with an inverted yield curve and a coming recession. With that said, Doty says the worst is largely over for the bond market, but that the stock market will suffer next year when the current relief rally ends . Doty appears in two segments today, also doing The NAVigator segment, talking about how closed-end funds are an ideal tool for current market conditions and how average investors who understand closed-end funds about 80 percent should take the leap of faith to go the rest of the way. In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund talks about value investing.

Sebastien Page, head of global multi-asset/chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, says that while inflation has peaked, it will remain sticky as it returns to more normal levels. The strategic, long-term takeaway is to remain invested, but Page says that the tactical moves investors should be making now involve playing "aggressive defense," underweighting stocks relative to bonds, underweighting Treasury bonds and overweighting cash and bank loans now. Internationally, he favors emerging markets and is light on Europe. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, looks at a new fund from VanEck focused on collateralized loan obligations as a means of diversifying bond portfolios, and Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments talks value investing in the Market Call.

Josef Schuster, chief executive officer at IPOX Schuster -- which builds indexes of initial public offerings around the world -- says that the IPO market has suffered along with the rest of the stock market, but it is poised for a rebound because companies must size up the cost of delaying an offering during a market slowdown versus the heightened costs of borrowing money to fund continuing operations. He says the current IPO market reminds him of conditions from roughly 20 years ago after the bursting of the Internet bubble. Also on the show, Dan Griffith of Huntington Private Bank discusses the private equity markets and how they have performed -- and are likely to do moving forward -- relative to the stock and bond markets, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, talks about the publication's latest survey on investor optimism, and Chuck answers a listener's question about breaking up a family estate.

Markus Schomer, chief economist for PineBridge Investments, says in "The Big Interview" that he believes the U.S. economy can avoid recession, not just through the remainder of this year but into 2023 -- when many experts say recession will become official -- as well. Schomer says that people misunderstand the type of economy we're in and the type of inflation we are living through; he believes the Covid economy is still playing out, and that the supply-demand equation will find balance again, and soon enough to keep things rolling without a major market meltdown. That said, Schomer's optimism stood in contrast to Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors, whose take on the market's technical indicators suggests that the ongoing market rebound is nothing more than a bear-market rally, set up to rise high and then reverse sharply, which he thinks will happen in line with the economy slowing down further later this year. Also on the show, Andrew Wellington, co-founder and chief investment officer at Lyrical Asset Management makes his maiden voyage in the Market Call talking stocks.

Joe Keefe, president of Impax Asset Management and the Pax World Funds, says that there are enough positives for the economy right now that he would bet against a hard landing and a protracted recession, although he acknowledges that wildcards like war in Ukraine, trade tensions with China, political issues and more to make him "barely optimistic" that a "soft-ish landing" lies ahead. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs highlights Rivian Automotive as another "zombie stock," pushed to death's door by rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs that he expects can sink the company from here, and Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management, talks ETFs and stocks in the Market Call.

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market's recent rebound looks and feels more like the start of a new bull market than it does the standard bear-market rally, though he is not saying that the rebound signals the start of something big. The economy still has a lot to work through, much of which will not come to roost until 2023, Clissold says, and the current strength may be more of a sign that any future decline won't last too long or go excessively deep. Clissold says the U.S. remains the best market in the world, even as expectations have been lowered given economic conditions. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question about hiring a fee-only adviser who charges by the hour, Alicia Munnell of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College discusses new bi-partisan legislation that she says fails to achieve its goals of offering real assistance to the nation's retirees, and John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses funds currently trading at premiums and compares them with similar funds priced at a discount, noting that the differences are about more than pricing.

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says thatthe bond market tends to have the most accurate message for investors, noting that the bond market tends to be the dog while the stock market is the tail. Thus, the market is reacting to headlines, but the bond market tends to be more steady in its actions. MacMillan says the bond market currently is signalling a coming recession, with the inverted yield curve signalling it could happen in the next 12 to 18 months. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi.com, talks about international cash-cows as he picks his ETF of the Week, Meredith Stoddard of Fidelity Investments discusses the high physical, emotional and financial costs of being a caregiver to both special-needs children and aging parents, and discusses the need for appropriate planning. And Corie Wagner, senior industry analyst at Savings.com, talks about the rising costs of participating in bachelor and bachelorette parties, and how it's not necessarily inflation that can be blamed for the bigger payouts that friends and family members endure ahead of the wedding these days.

Stanley Teitelbaum, a clinical psychologist who authored a book on the "self-defeating patterns" that individual investors make says that the market's first-half losses has pushed many investors into a bad type of inaction, one where they don't want to make a move until their position gets back to break-even or recaptures a recent high, neither of which is guaranteed. While no one wants to accept losses, Teitelbaum says investors who evaluate securities on their prospects rather than on the price of purchase will be making smarter moves. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question from a fortunate investor who wants to figure out what to do with an oversized cash stash, and Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments, says that if the Federal Reserve knew in March what it knows now in terms of economic health, it would have moved more cautiously. Having acted as it did, he thinks the Fed is unlikely to pull off the hoped-for soft landing, but he believes the market will avoid a crash, leaving the economy with a rough landing, one that could see the stock market improve late in the year before it finds more trouble in 2023. Jacobsen notes that he favors domestic and emerging markets for riding out the trouble, feeling that the U.S. is best positioned, that emerging markets minus China and Russia are the best value and developed Europe -- where he is underweight -- is headed for the toughest troubles. Also on the show, Michael Hershfield, chief executive officer at Accrue Savings, discusses the firm's survey of customers using "Buy Now, Pay Later" programs and how one-third of borrowers are using credit cards to cover those "later payments," meaning they can't afford their purchases, even on a payment plan. And in the Market Call, William Smead, manager of the Smead Value Fund, is here talking stocks, noting that he has changed his long-held tune about big oil and energy companies after years of saying they were not buyable.

Sheldon Jacobson, a University of illinois professor who specializes in operations research, discusses shrinkflation -- where companies hold prices steady but reduce packaging sizes as a means of disguising rising costs -- and says that while the trend is prevalent right now, it works poorly in high-inflation markets because consumers are only caught unaware for a moment. While consumers wake up to the trend and focus on unit prices, Jacobson says that shrinkflation has heavy costs on society, increasing packaging costs, waste production and more that are largely ignored. The show today also looks at the latest "mind the Gap" study from Morningstar with Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist for the research firm, who says that consumers continue seeing their personal performance lag behind the results of the funds they own, a sign of chasing performance and having poor timing results. In the Danger Zone segment, investment analyst Kyle Guske focuses on Beyond Meat, another "zombie stock" being pushed to the edge of bankruptcy by rising interest rates and changing economic conditions, and in the Market Call, Chris McMahon, president of Aquinas Wealth, makes his debut on the show and talks stock investing.

Armando Senra, head of Americas ETF and Index business for BlackRock, says that the Federal Reserve's message this week cleared a path for a slower pace of tightening over the remainder of the year, but that investors must embrace volatility and sustained inflation to take advantage of the market environment. Senra says that weathering the current market storm requires investors with a long-term outlook willing to look past current events to see the industries that will be poised for a comeback when economic conditions improve. In The NAVigator segment, portfolio manager Tim Ryan from Nuveen covers the municipal bond market and how it is disconnected with the Treasury market's inverted yield curve to offer some bounce-back potential for the second half of the year. Also on the show, Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com discusses the market's technicals and how it is trying hard to find a level and build a base for the next rally, and in the Market Call, Art Amador of Equbot talks about using artificial intelligence and machine learning as a means of selecting stocks.

Chun Wang, senior analyst and portfolio manager at the Leuthold Group, says that the market has priced in a shallow recession -- a near soft landing -- but that the Federal Reserve's record of engineering such a smooth outcome is poor, leaving a strong chance that the central bank tightens too much and dramatically increases the risk and severity of recession. Wang believes that inflation has peaked or nearly peaked, but that it will likely settle in around 5 percent -- a level higher than the Fed wants -- eliminating the obvious moves and leaving much harder choices amid a damaged market in 2023. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about two key factors in today's market -- high quality and low volatility -- in picking his ETF of the Week, Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM returns to help Chuck answer an audience member's question on trying to take advantage of changes in exchange rates around the strengthening dollar, and Charles Rotblut of the American Association of Individual Investors discusses the 'expected value' of buying a Mega Millions ticket for this week's billion-dollar lottery, and why this is one of the rare times when it makes investment sense to take a flyer.

Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, says that the economy is reaching a turning point where the Federal Reserve must consider slowing interest rate hikes or risk that those increases will kill off economic growth. Coghlan notes that while all central banks are dealing with this now, the US economy will have the largest impact on the potential for a global recession. Also on the show, Dan DeYoung, portfolio manager for Columbia Threadneedle's floating rate and high-yield bond funds discusses how rate hikes are impacting the credit markets and whether higher rates will trigger significantly greater levels of corporate defaults, Matt Schulz discusses a LendingTree study of how consumers are changing back-to-school shopping habits in the face of higher prices, and Chuck talks about a way to get a win out of the upcoming $1 billion MegaMillions jackpot without even buying a ticket.

Marko Papic, chief strategist at the Clocktower Group, says that while inflation in the range of 3 to 6 percent "will not kill" consumers, it will kill the technology sector because any unprofitable tech companies can't keep borrowing at super low rates to keep the business rolling while they get to profitability. He believes other markets besides the United States are better positioned to support their technology businesses moving forward, which is part of a trend that will see investors want to own China and Japan and Europe during times while inflation remains high. Also on the show, Nathan Furr, author of "The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown," discusses how consumers and savers can lean into the uncertainty of current times and markets to find a path to something better and more interesting, Christian Mitchell of Northwestern Mutual discusses the latest release from the firm's 2022 Planning and Progress Study, which showed how planning significantly improved investor satisfaction and confidence during the current downturn, and Chuck answers a listener's question about I-bonds.

Justin Fitzpatrick, co-founder of Income Lab, says that while investors and retirement savers are starting to freak out about what the market has done to their portfolio values, they should be considering instead whether recent declines have actually impacted their ability to afford the retirement lifestyle they're planning. Funding your lifestyle is what matters in retirement, Fitzpatrick says, while movements in the market are fleeting and may not have much impact on retirement income. Zoe Barry of Zingeroo looks at how investors on the platform have been changing their behaviors in current markets, noting that many younger investors have turned away from the things they know and are comfortable with -- which was pushing them toward meme stocks and popular names -- to broaden out their holdings now. Also on the show, Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America discusses the National Association for Business Economics July 2022 Business Conditions Survey released today, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts SNAP Inc. back in the Danger Zone, saying the big losses it has suffered don't make it immune from losing the rest of its value.

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist for Dreyfus and Mellon, says there is "no safe place for an investor right now except cash" and inflation-protected securities, due to high inflation and the Federal Reserve's inability to this point to get prices under control. As a result, Reinhart says that the economy is either in or entering a shallow recession, with a recovery that could take a while to arrive and that might not be particularly robust when it gets here. Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, talks technical analysis and why investors are so cautious about risky assets now and why they're not likely to act differently to the market until there's a reason for optimism return until inflation is no longer the primary driver for markets; Timothy Reick, chief executive officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- advisor to the Private Shares Fund -- discusses why private equity is an asset class that is not correlated to the broad stock market that individual investors largely overlook in their portfolios. And in the Market Call, Jason Herried, director of equity strategies at Johnson Financial Group, talks about investing in mutual funds and ETFs and balancing long-term portfolio plans with shorter-term market opportunities.

Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says the macro environment is headed lower and weaker and will take the stock market with it, and while he does not expect this to lead to "a horrible outcome," but with the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates above ts comfort level in order to combat inflation, he has little doubt that a recession is coming. Weisman expects current challenges to last into 2023, but he is hopeful that the recession will come quickly to help it pass; he notes that if the recession doesn't happen until later in 2023, "it will be that much more difficult to achieve a soft landing." In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com looks at the long bonds and says they belong on investors' watch lists if trend lines keep moving in improving directions; in the Market Call, Gerry Frigon, chief investment officer at Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about growth investing and how the market's slow start to the year has put a lot of good businesses down to where they are compelling long-term values for investors willing to wait out a recovery.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton -- head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says that the current stock market and economic situation is not going to play out exactly like some scenario from the past, so that experts are wasting their time harkening back to the 1970s or any other period to draw their forecasts. While many experts will say there's a mild recession in the offing, Dover says that anyone making that prediction needs to consider that there is the potential for something worse. In searching for safe havens, Dover notes that fixed income "now makes more sense than it did at the peak of the market," due to relative price differences caused by the stock and bond markets falling simultaneously through the first half of the year. Also on the show, Jeff Ptak, chief ratings officer at Morningstar, talks about research showing that star ratings -- which were always described as being backward-looking and not good predictors of future results -- actually have benefits in forecasting which funds will be solid future performers, and Chuck answers a listener's question about sequence-of-return risk and whether holding extra cash could help defeat it.

Michele Schneider, director of trading education at MarketGauge.com, says she has limited exposure to the stock market right now because technical analysis shows the market as being "stuck in a range," that she thinks is likely to end with a downward move, which could last until inflation problems are resolved. Schneider says the dollar could be peaking right now, which could create a prolonged boost for precious metals, "which we think haven't really woken up right now." Also on the show, Marketwatch columnist and editor Rex Nutting discusses his recent period about why Americans are so grumpy about the economy in a period where a deep dive through the numbers proves that conditions aren't as bad as angry investors and consumers are making them out to be. In the Market Call, Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager at Seven Canyons Advisors, talks about being a growth-stock investor at a time when the market is showing signs of limited growth.

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that the Federal Reserve's signals that it will do whatever it takes to get inflation under control has created conditions in which all markets -- stocks, bonds, commodities and more -- suffer. While Milling-Stanley doesn't think the Fed wants to create a recession, but he says it will take that step if that's what's needed to "knock out any sense that inflationary expectations have become embedded" in the economy. Also on the show, John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says the market is at a crossroads, where it could rally before year-end or where 2022 ends painfully. Petrides says the market is closer to the bottom than it was at the start of the year, but he expects three months of volatility before the market gets to where it can sort things out on inflation and set a path forward. And while the entire market might feel troubled right now, Kyle Guske of New Constructs sidesteps the "Danger Zone" his week by pointing out a stock that has been hit too hard by the market, and which he believes has now become particularly attractive now.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that the best way to manage volatility is to "Stop looking at the week-to-week, month-to-month numbers and you focus on five-, 10 and 20-year returns because, really, if you're an investor, that's what you re putting your money away for." Ritholtz says that some of the market's current meltdown is "just mean reversion," with the stock market giving back the above-average returns it had during the bull market run, but the bulk of the problem is rising interest rates, rising costs of capital and credit and more that is crimping consumer spending, business economics and slowing the growth of revenues and profits in Corporate America. Also on the show, David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com, says he could see the stock market heading much lower -- down another 15 percent or more from here -- before rallying, though he sees big-name stocks finding some stability soon and helping to set up a base for a recovery, and John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses business-development companies as they face upcoming second-quarter earnings reports, and how the numbers suggest that they are poised for improved performance, but also to continue a run where they have outperformed closed-end funds and other similar assets during the early part of the year.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says while supply-chain induced inflation will ease up, housing inflation will require much more action on the part of policy-makers and he thinks it will be 2024 or '25 before home inflation stabilizes to something close to the Federal Reserve's targets. Brusuelas says there's "a 45 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months," and he expects the market to move sideways until the Fed looks like it has resolved the inflation problem. In the interim, he says that investors may have to throw out the old saws and platitudes of money management to find industries poised to thrive regardless of market conditions. Also on the show, Tom Lydo of VettaFi.com discusses an ESG-based version of a standard broad-market index fund as the proverbial better mousetrap for investors to consider, and Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates returns to the Market Call for the first time since the start of the pandemic to chat stocks and growth.

Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says he's concerned that Tether, the world's largest stablecoin, is a "fraud" and running out of money. He worries that if Tether crashes "the entire crypto sector goes with it ... and you don't want to invest in a sector where there's a 50-50 chance you'll lose half your money in a matter of days." Tilson talks extensively about what he does trust and is buying in current market conditions, noting that he is maintaining a balance between value stocks trading below their intrinsic value and companies with superior long-term growth characteristics. Also on the show, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses the firm's new survey on mutual fund fees, showing that consumers saved billions of dollars last year by investing in low-cost funds, bringing down the average expense ratio being paid even further, down to roughly 0.4 percent. And in the Market Call, Mike Larson, senior analyst at Weiss Ratings and editor of Weiss's Safe Money Report talks about safe stocks in today's topsy-turvy conditions.

Molly Schwartz, a portfolio manager on the U.S. Broad Market team at Western Asset Management, says a recession can be avoided for the rest of the year if the Federal Reserve "takes a more measured approach" and sticks to it. Even if there is a recession, Schwartz said what matters is how people feel it, and they're not likely to feel much pain while the job market is still growing and workers are getting raises, and more. Also on the show, Chuck answers audience-member questions about what's wrong with an individual investor taking a flyer on riskier stocks and strategies, as well as how to determine if a financial adviser has the 'right credential' to help with retirement planning, and Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management talks growth at a reasonable price in the Market Call.

Market strategist Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that the Federal Reserve is not "going to get rid of inflation with six months of rate hikes," which is a big reason why he is calling for market doldrums that amount to several years of mostly sideways. While not anticipating a big crash, McDonald says that investors should avoid the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes -- which he says have been destroyed of late -- and instead pursue emerging markets and value stocks. Also on the show, David Schiffman, manager of the Aquila High Income Fund (ATPAX), says that the current environment for high-yield bonds is unlike anything he has seen in his long career, noting that there is a lot of push and pull between mixed economic numbers; Schiffman says the junk-bond space "is in much better shape" than before central bankers started raising traits and he expects to see that improvement continue. And in the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer singles out Tesla and Twitter as prime examples of the many stocks with inflated street earnings that could lead to a bad beat when the quarterly numbers are issued over the next few weeks.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that the next step the stock market must take to begin a recovery involves adjusting earnings expectations, noting that several years of record earnings "set the bar too high," and now investors must adjust to lower, more realistic gains. Yes, she notes, valuations have dropped due to the bear market, pricing "a heck of a lot of negativity into the market," but it's now time for 'the E to come under pressure.' Sonders notes that while she thinks the economy is in a recession, the label matters much less than the pain investors have been feeling. Also on the show, John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says the market is nearing "a strategic bottom," with bad news being priced into the market giving the potential for liftoff if the market sees any signs of improvement moving forward. And Rob Shaker of Shaker Financial Services, says that the closed-end fund market showed signs of a "sympathy widening" in mid-June, an event that can be a sign of a market bottom; if that holds -- without any additional excessive selling to reverse the recent trend -- it could mean a bounce-back is in the offing.

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group says that while economic growth has slowed -- causing what might be considered a "growth recession" -- the economy itself should be able to avoid a full-blown recession, as inflation eases and consumers and investors realize "they kind of overreacted a bit" to current conditions. But there's also a second Big Interview with a guy named Steve on this show, as Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers says that the market must first find stability in low-risk assets like short-term Treasury bonds before investors can accurately size up riskier assets like stocks. He sees selective opportunities for patient investors right now, while waiting for the Federal Reserve "to take the foot off the brakes," which he thinks will help the market set a bottom and move forward to a rebound. Also on the show, for the second consecutive week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com turns to a managed-futures, commodity-based fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says that there's more pain ahead for the stock market, but that the end of the year is likely to see a bounce-back that serves as the start of a recovery. Stovall expects the Standard & Poor's 500 to hit roughly 3,200 -- which would be a 33 percent decline, and an average bear market -- before the turnaround starts around the December holidays. Thus, he says, the market will end up down for the year, but positioned for 2023 to be a big gainer, with the sectors that have suffered the most during the downturn taking the lead during the rebound. "Those things that were beaten up are the ones that offer the greatest opportunity," Stovall says. Also on the show, Chuck talks about robo-call scams where consumers are told there has been an unauthorized purchase to their Amazon.com account -- and plays four different times he got such calls -- and Kevin Miller, chief investment officer at the E-valuator Funds talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.

Paula Pant, host of the Afford Anything podcast says that high inflation certainly impacts consumers emotions and feelings about money but it hasn't had much impact on their ability to achieve their financial goals, noting that people can still 'afford anything, but not everything,' with some stepped up planning to help deal with higher prices. Also on the show, journalism professor Chris Roush discusses his new book, "The Future of Business Journalism: Why It Matters for Wall Street and Main Street," noting that the business journalism community has changed to where it doesn't serve most investors and consumers particularly well; in the Market Call, Salem Abraham, founder of Abraham Trading Co. and manager of Abraham Fortress fund makes his debut talking top-down stock-picking.

With the stock market off to its worst first-half start to a year since 1962, Anu Ganti, senior director of index investment strategy at S&P Global, points to her firm's analysis showing that there is "no correlation between first half of the year performance and second half of the year performance." That doesn't mean that a rally is in the offing -- with 10 of 11 sectors and roughly 90 percent of the S&P 500 stocks down this year -- but it means one is possible. That sentiment also was clear in a Talking Technicals interview with Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, who says the downturn this year is getting to the point where people might want to start investing into it, not expecting a rapid rally but recognizing that conditions will be changing and improving as we get toward the end of the year. Also on the show, Ben McCulloch, managing director and general counsel at XA Investments, discusses developments in interval funds and tender-offer funds, and John Sullivan of the Olstein All Cap Value Fund talks stocks in the Market Call.

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says that investors have endured the toughest start to a year for stocks and bonds in decades, but the mounting troubles should culminate in a recession in the second half of the year, with the downturn going deeper before a real recovery occurs. Cronk says that he thinks if the Standard & Poor's 500 were to hit 3,300, valuations will be so compelling that he will be "pounding the table" to get clients to buy. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com makes a managed-futures fund that has posted strong performance amid the market's troubles his ETF of the Week, John Boroff, vice president of youth investing at Fidelity Investments discusses the 2022 results from its "Teens and Money Study," and Chuck answers a listener's question about required minimum distributions for this year.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, says that even though consumers are largely in better position than they were just a few years ago, they're not feeling it now as credit-card debt has been rising and savings levels shrinking in the face of inflation. As a result, the percentage of Americans saying they are uncomfortable financially has skyrocketed, with inflation as the cause because it doesn't just erode savings but it grates on confidence. Also on the show, David Elefant of Elefant Financial talks about the financial issues that the LGBTQIA community is worrying about as it considers the potential for political changes in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision that reversed Roe vs. Wade. While Elefant is worried that financial rules affecting partners and same-sex marriages could change dramatically depending on which laws are passed or repealed, he says the situation is not as dire as scary headlines make it out to be. In the Market Call, Mark Travis of Intrepid Capital Management talks about investing in "basic boring businesses" that make things like "beer, shoes and underwear."

Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy, Fundstrat Global Advisors, says that a healthy consumer and a market that has solid economic footing should lead to "a recession with a small R and not a capital R." Newtons says his models show a market bottoming out in July before turning significantly higher in September, thanks largely to higher interest rates already being baked into the market's expectations. Newton says that the bear market has been in process for months, even if it was only just recognized by the media; the result is that a lot of damage was done before the headlines were made, increasing the likelihood that we are closer to the bottom than the start of trouble. Also on the show, Peter Crane of Crane Data -- publisher of Money Fund Intelligence -- talks about how rising interest rates have made money-market funds more attractive than they have been in over a decade, despite yields in the 1 percent range, Catherine Collinson discusses the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies 2022 Retirement Study released today showing Americans' changing attitudes about the working conditions they want and more, and Marten Carlson, lead reviewer at Mattress Clarity, talks about sleeping for a month on the "cheapest mattress" sold on Amazon in answer to a popular consumer search, and what buyers should know to ensure they get a good deal and a good night's rest.

Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, says it's a buyer's market right now, especially in the small-cap space with stock prices having fallen to where there are more compelling values and real long-term opportunities. At the same time, he says in the Market Call interview that those conditions put a premium on sifting through the many potential buys to hone in on the right ones. Also on the show, Jim Cullen, founder of Schaefer Cullen Capital Management makes "The Case for Long-Term Value Investing'' -- which is the title of his new book, Kyle Guske from New Constructs talks about three zombie stocks with cash-flow issues so bad that their stocks could be headed to $0, and Megan Sanctorum discusses a recent study showing that people would need a surprisingly large win in the lottery before they would call it quits on their jobs.

Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician for TheoTrade and founder of TheQuantGuy.com, says that "much of the dirty work is behind us," with the market now reaching a point "where the values are the most compelling I have seen in 25 years." Bierman last appeared on Money Life in December of 2021, and was extremely cautious, expecting the market to hit a low of between 3,600 and 3,800 on the Standard & Poor's 500 within six months. Bierman's model projects the S&P to drop to the 3,300-3,400 range, before building a base for recovery. "If interest rates can peak at some point and if money managers can get beyond staring at charts and start looking at value ... they are going to find that this is where millionaires are made, in these kinds of markets," Bierman says. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors answers questions from listeners, Catherine Yoshimoto of FTSE Russell discusses the "Russell Reconstitution" that changes the firm's benchmark indexes at the close of business today, and Peter Tuz of Chase Investment Counsel talks growth investing in today's no-growth environment in the Market Call.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the market's drawdown and valuations have performed in line with expectations for a typical recession, and while the third key component of a slowdown -- a big decline in earnings -- hasn't happened yet, he says the market is closer to having fully discounted current events, meaning that "We are closer to the end" of the downturn than the beginning. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a China ETF that has broken above its 50-day moving average -- but is still below longer-term measures -- his pick for ETF of the Week, Danetha Doe of Clever Real Estate discusses a survey looking at how ready homeowners are to accept and work with iBuyers, and Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor talks stocks in the Market Call.

Noted value investor Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief investment officer of Investment Management Associates -- who was on Tuesday's show discussing his new book, "Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life" -- returns to the show for a discussion of current market conditions and notes that investors in bull markets see their time horizons lengthen, but that time becomes shorter when investors are facing a downturn and see their assets shrinking. He warns against allowing the current market troubles and the market's short-term gyrations to influence long-term plans. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest CreditCards.com survey showing some surprising trends in how consumers are tipping in the post-pandemic environment, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to help Chuck answer a listener's question about setting up a tax-advantaged savings account for a newborn grandchild, and Jordan Kahn, chief investment officer of the ACM Funds -- manager of the ACM Dynamic Opportunity Fund -- makes his debut talking stocks in the Market Call.

Ben Hunt, chief investment officer at Second Foundation Partners and the publisher of Epsilon Theory, says investors need to reduce their debts and balance sheet and to "reconnect with the real economy wherever you can" in order to ride out the coming storm that he sees playing out while the stock market digests interest-rate hikes and measures designed to curtail inflation. While Hunt says he is rooting for the scenario where there's a quick recovery after "a nasty recession," he says investors need to prepare for something that's longer-lasting and worse. Also on the show, money-manager Vitaliy Katsenelson discusses his new book "Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life", and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners discusses ETF investing in the Market Call.

Veteran market observer Ralph Acampora, who helped develop market analytics and who is recognized as a pioneer in technical analysis, says the stock market had been setting up major tops for a while, with the charts implying that the downturn would be roughly 30 percent from top to bottom. With that in mind, Acampora foresees "at least another 10, 12, 15 percent for the Dow and the S&P 500 on the down side," before any real recovery can start. Also on the show, Larry Holzenthaler, investment strategist and analyst for Nuveen, says that senior loans have been one of the few places to avoid the pain in the fixed-income markets, and they feel like a safer haven and a surprisingly good value right now compared to most parts of the credit market, and portfolio manager Gary Bradshaw of the Hodges Funds talks blue-chip stocks and dividend-payers in the Market Call.

Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the tactically managed ATAC Funds says the Federal Reserve should have raised rates even more than it did Wednesday -- when the central bank made its biggest rate hike in almost 30 years -- because market and economic pain is inevitable and could be long-lasting, but there is growth potential once the market passes the troubles and starts a new recovery. This show also features Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi.com, making a brand new fund his ETF of the Week, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discussing the site's latest survey which shows that consumers are looking at rewards cards as a way to deal with inflation, and Rob Lutts, president of Cabot Wealth Management, talks growth investing in the Market Call.

Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, says that investors should look at where they can be best off given current global economic conditions, and says that will bring investors to large-cap domestic value stocks, and she notes that investors may not want to pursue broad diversification because the strategy tends to struggle during times of stress. "It only works when the market is working," she says, "and right now the market isn't working." She expects a recession in short order, though she believes most investors should stick with their plans rather than making moves in response to market conditions and headlines driven by volatility. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which showed that economic optimism is at its lowest point in over a decade, and the personal financial outlook has never been lower since the index was created in 2001. Mike Hunstad, global head of equity and quantitative strategies for Northern Trust Asset Management, discusses how proposed regulatory changes to ESG investing will help consumers know what they are buying, and why environmental, social and governance oversight -- particularly combined with factors like investing in "quality" -- should lead to superior returns over time, and author Hal Weitzman discusses his book, "What's the Matter with Delaware: How the First State Has Favored the Rich, Powerful and Criminal – and How it Costs Us All."

Dan Zanger, founder of Chartpattern.com, says "The 1970s are here again," bringing the dangers of persistent inflation back into play, creating long-term financial pain and putting the stock market in jeopardy of falling "50 to 65 percent before this is over." Zanger expects a protracted downturn, with no quick snap-back because the Federal Reserve can't prime the pump by lowering interest rates. "The sooner you get out and stay in cash," he says, "the better off you are going to be." Also on the show, author Eric Balchunas, discusses his recent book "The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions," and Scott Bennett, founder of Invest With Rules -- a service that tracks and reacts to the actions of big-time mutual fund managers -- talks stocks in the Market Call.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that a recession is coming, but it's not imminent due to the economy's underlying strengths, including active consumers, corporate balance sheets and the labor market. While waiting for a recession to arrive late next year, Fernandez says investors should be taking advantage of down days in the market to buy up names that are on sale and better balance a portfolio to get through trouble. Also on the show, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com talks about whether the market's slow start to the year has made 2022 a particularly good time to consider converting traditional retirement accounts into Roth IRAs, Sara Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent survey on the emotions and financial stresses that consumers are living with now, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a mutual fund that gets a good rating from Morningstar into the Danger Zone, noting that the fund's holdings have it headed for trouble.

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that consumer demand should support the economy for the remainder of 2022 "without significant dire consequences," but he notes that 2023 is "another whole can of worms" and the Federal Reserve's plans to squash inflation is likely to have side effects that create a recession in 2023. Mullaney talks about the market's fundamental and technical sides, identifies segments and sectors he expects to lead and lag, and more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. In the NAVigator segment, Sam Brothwell, director of research at Energy Income Partners, says that the current cycle of under-investment in capital spending has made it harder for energy producers to respond to the current supply-demand imbalance; that has pushed energy prices -- for oil, natural gains, electricity and alternatives -- dramatically higher, where they are likely to stay for awhile. In the Market Call, Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager for the Robinson Funds, discusses investments in premarket SPACs (special-purpose acquisition companies) and closed-end funds, and how they can further diversify a portfolio while increasing its overall risk profile.

Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says that the sharp sell-off that set bonds off to a bad start to the year -- and scared many investors out of the bond space -- has reached a pivot point, so that investors are now looking at "a rare opportunity" to get back in with higher yields and attractive valuations. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a play on the dollar recently hitting a two-decade high against global currencies with his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to pay for/finance a big expense, and Rob Spivey, director of research for Valens Securities, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that despite the gloom being caused by high inflation, war and more, "If you step back, we're not in a terrible place." He notes that if inflation can be controlled and the labor market stays at current levels of full employment, that should lead to a good outcome once tensions ease. Gruenwald says that a big market decline, recession or proverbial day of reckoning is not a foregone conclusion; if the economy can be guided to a path where inflation reduces to Federal Reserve targets -- and growth hits those targets too -- he believes there is a reasonable glide path to better days ahead. Also on the show, money manager and author Adam Seessell discusses the continuing evolution of value investing and his book, "Where the Money Is: Value Investing in a Digital Age," plus Clark Kendall, president and chief executive officer at Kendall Capital discusses stock investing in the Market Call.

Jeanette Garretty says there is a very real risk of recession in the next nine months, but she sees no reason to expect anything worse than a "garden-variety, U.S. economic recession, with a couple of quarters negative and then a fairly quick rebound in economic activity with the markets leading" that recovery. Garretty notes that there are risks that could exacerbate problems and make a downturn more severe, but she sees inflation pressures easing significantly come early 2023 and recovery to follow unless war, China trade tensions or other conditions have bigger-than-expected impacts. Covering the market's technicals, Scott Brown -- technical market strategist at LPL Financial -- says it appears the market bottom is not in place yet, meaning that he expects a downturn and more capitulation by investors before a significant turnaround, but he does think that investors should look for more stocks to make three-month highs as a sign that things are ready to start recovering rather than drifitngmostly sideways and down. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the positive and negative impacts that Covid-19 had on individual investors in the firm's 2022 Planning and Progress Study, and Bill Davis of the Stance Equity ESG Large Cap Core ETF talks stocks in the Market Call.