Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Lawrence McMillan of OptionStrategist.com, president of McMillan Analysis, says that the technical indicators have all lined up so where there are no sell signals and the market could easily move up to recapture its August highs, though he acknowledges that the big concern is not something in the charts but rather is the Federal Reserve, 'which is not exactly bending over backwards to help the markets.' McMillan notes that he would like to see a confirming signal from a cumulative volume indicator to be convinced that it's a full-fledged bull market, but he intends to ride the trends while determining if the market is building long-term confidence. In The Big Interview, Tadas Viskanta, editor at Abnormal Returns, discusses how the changing landscape of financial blogs and media has left investors swimming in a sea of data that can be hard to cut through without succumbing to confirmation bias and other bad behavioural concerns. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, is back for The NAVigator, looking at how the market's hot start to the new year has changed the outlook for various closed-end fund sectors and the moves investors might want to consider now and, in the Market Call, Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses the X-Out method for investing in large-cap stocks.

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says that while the market and economic fundamentals look pretty bad, those problems have been so obvious for so long that the market has adjusted to where it is now letting slight improvements in the data lead it higher. As a result, even if the numbers show just slight improvement, the market can react positively, which should make it that both the economy and market look much better late in 2023. Amoroso is concerned that the technicals overreacted to a good January, which could lead to short-term volatility or downturn, although she generally finds technicals showing a longer-term positive trend. In the ETF of the Week segment, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, revisits his pick from last week -- the classic Standard and Poor's 500 fund that started the exchange-traded fund business -- with a twist, making an equal-weight index fund his selection. And in the Market Call, Lauren Hill, portfolio manager and research analyst at Westwood Investment Management discusses large-cap and consumer-discretionary stocks.

Contrarian-minded commodities expert Adam Rozencwajg, co-manager of the Goehring and Rozencwajg Resources fund says the energy market 'has a really unique setup' where prices have risen but money and investment has not flowed to the business, which is likely to extend the positive edge and duration of the current energy cycle. Rozencwajg says tight energy supplies will continue, having bullish implications for the whole sector until investors start pushing money into the sector. Also on the show, Jenna Lemair of Insuranks.com discusses the petflation and the site's survey on how animals and pet owners have not been immune from rising prices for food and medical care, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting in the new year, and Sandy Villere, co-manager of the Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Nigam Arora, editor of The Arora Report says that there's a disconnect between the messages being sent by market and economic fundamentals and technicals, with the technical indicators turning bullish despite longer-term economic data sending bearish signs. As a result, Arora says investors should expect significant volatility and should put more money into the short-term technicals to take advantage of the back-and-forth even as they become more conservative in their long-term investments. Michele Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge.com, echoed Arora's take on improving technicals, noting that until something changes in those indicators, 'We rally to resistance.' Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's research into the record percentage of Americans who say they can't afford to pay a $1,000 emergency bill without going into debt. In the Market Call, Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer at the Jacob Funds talks about early-stage, high-growth investing in technology and small-cap stocks.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the market is likely to close the month having achieved the 'January trifecta,' which is a Santa Claus rally (over the last five trading days of the old year and first two of the new), plus a positive January barometer -- where January's results set a trend for the year -- and then the 'first five days early warning system,' which holds that if the first five trading days of the year are up the full year's results have been positive more than 80 percent of the time. With two of those three indicators set and the third likely to be confirmed when the month ends tomorrow, Hirsch notes that his firm has upped its 2023 outlook to a 'best case scenario' for above-average pre-election year gains of 15 to 20 percent. If there's a surprise, Hirsch says, it is that the projection would be too low. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2022 'Planning and Progress Study,' which shows that Generation Z has big hopes for retiring younger than its older cohorts, a notion that will be tough to pull off; David Trainer of New Constructs puts Opendoor in the Danger Zone, noting that its a zombie stock that could run out of money before the end of the summer, and author Mark Miller chats about his latest book, Retirement Reboot, and how savings strapped pre-retirees can regain control of their financial future.

Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says that while the headlines and fundamentals are making investors nervous, there has been a shift to the positive in technical market measures, which he believes are starting to show signs of a market bottom and turn that has him bullish on the potential for a good year. Samuelson lays out a number of different technical reasons for optimism and says they turned quickly in the fall and early winter noting, for example, that 81 percent of global indices are now above their 200-day, long-term trend -- versus only 10 percent in October -- which shows that this 'has a lot of the underpinnings of the cusp of a new bull market.' In The Big Interview, Scott Lynn, founder and chief executive at Masterworks -- which created a marketplace for shares in works of art -- discusses the fine-art market, how it weathered the storm of the market's downturn in 2022 and why investors might turn to it for diversification now. Plus, Eric Purington of the abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund says in The NAVigator segment that private infrastructure investments -- and particularly middle-market opportunities, which have been being snapped up by larger operators -- offer a path to stability, diversification and enhanced returns now. And in the Market Call, hedge-fund manager Mina Tadrus, chief executive at Tadrus Capital discusses quantitative, risk-measured investing in exchange-traded funds.

Phillip Wool, head of research for Rayliant Global Advisors, says that investors who expect the U.S. economy to weaken or to suffer the effects of inflation for longer will find that emerging markets are more compelling than domestic markets in 2023, and he finds China particularly interesting as it pivots to a growth stance coming out of a Covid lockdown and reversing insular policies of the last few years. In a wide ranging Big Interview segment, Wool talks about how he is worried that private investments -- both equity and credit -- are headed for liquidity problems that could hamstring investors who are not expecting the whipsaw that comes when hard-to-value securities must be sold into a down market to meet redemption demand. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi celebrates 'the granddaddy' of exchange-traded funds with his ETF of the Week, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's annual survey of checking-account fees, and Jim Cullen, chief executive officer at Schaefer Cullen Capital Management -- appearing in the Market Call for the first time -- talks small cap stocks and long-term value investing.

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that he expects a modest slowdown and mild recession that is short-lived and shallow, and that the economy will show resilience in rebounding from that, but he notes that the following recovery will be equally mild and modest. Also on the show, Emily Brandon talks about a U.S. News and World Report survey showing that consumers are cutting back on retirement savings in the face of inflation and day-to-day cost-of-living increases, Megan Moncrief of travel insurance portal Squaremouth discusses how travellers can protect themselves against potential pilot strikes and events like the recent Southwest Airlines breakdown, and David Wagner, portfolio manager for Aptus Capital Advisors and the Aptus actively managed exchange-traded funds covers stocks in the Market Call.

Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says the economy is going through a series of rotating, mini-recessions affecting certain industries, which will lead to a modest recession in the middle of the year, but once but that happens he expects interest rates to start falling, inflation to keep slowing and the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle, he expects price/earnings multiples to expand which should help markets go higher. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, is equally optimistic in the Talking Technicals segment, saying he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 Index to end the year up more than 15 percent near 4,500, with technical indicators suggesting to him that the worst is over and that the market bottomed out in October of 2022. In The Market Call, Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, discusses altering ETF portfolios to reflect coming changes in inflation, interest rates and more.

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire, says he is tilting portfolios away from value and toward growth because investors have been willing to pay up for growth at times when there is no growth. As a result, with an economic slowdown being almost certain, Pursche is repositioning to take advantage of where the money is likely to go; he also sees opportunity in fixed-income and in the alternative income space, noting that yields have come up enough to be worth considering. Pursche notes in the Market Call, that despite the anticipated domestic slowdown, he is not turning to international investing right now. Also on the show, numismatics expert Bret Leifer talks about the market for collectible coins and whether it's performed in line with precious metals as inflation has returned in ways not seen in decades, Matt Brannon discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that retirees saw their life savings decline by 10 percent in 2022 due to a mix of market losses and increased spending costs caused by inflation and, in The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs singles out a popular mutual fund that carries a five-star rating from Morningstar which he says actually has 57 percent of its assets in stocks that are unattractive or downright ugly.

David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- the president, Sierra Alpha Research -- says that until the stock market can get above its long-term trend line and show fundamental strength, investors may want to question how good things are really getting. Keller notes that there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but 'the proof is in the price,' and he will stay skeptical until the major benchmarks follow through on major barometers. Keller notes that the 3,800 level on the Standard and Poor's 500 is a key level to watch, as if the index drops below that level -- the low from December -- it could unleash some negative probabilities that investors may want to plan for. In The Big Interview, Paul Espinosa, lead manager of the top-rated Seafarer Overseas Value Fund, discusses why international markets and especially emerging markets are priced right for a rally, even as they digest issues ranging from war to inflation and more. The NAVigator segment features Nate Jones of closed-end fund powerhouse Nuveen talking about how the upward-sloping yield curve for municipal bonds is creating opportunities in the sector, and Randy Baron, lead portfolio manager for international and global investing at Pinnacle Associates, talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call.

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says he believes what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been saying about keeping the Fed funds rate elevated for longer, and if the central bank indeed pursues that strategy, the probability of a recession is high towards the end of the year or early in 2024. Mullaney says that for the first time in six years he is looking at increasing bond exposure to help get through what he expects to be a rough year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, looks at trends on the rise in emerging markets for his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses some alarming trends in consumer credit, and Rob Lutts, president/chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management goes looking for good ideas among stocks in the Market Call.

Axel Merk who is president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says that while there are signs that the economy is improving, we're 'not out of the woods yet,' and the Federal Reserve 'can't declare victory.' Still, he thinks the central bank will get into wait-and-see mode after two more interest-rate hikes, noting that there may not be a trend reversal this year but that just stopping the hikes should be seen by investors as a good sign. Also on the show, Julie Ramhold, consumer analyst at DealNews.com, tells Chuck -- and you -- how to get a better bargain, or at least a better fit, if you are shopping for gym memberships now that the busy holiday period has ended and, in the Market Call, Mike Cerasoli, portfolio manager for the TrueShares Eagle Global Renewable Energy Income ETF gives his take on the energy market now.

Elliott Gue, editor of the Energy and Income Advisor newsletter, says in today's Money Life Market Call that even after the good year that energy stocks had in 2022, the sector has just started its first steps into a 'multi-year super cycle' driven by supply shortages caused by a lack of investment capital put into the sector over the last eight to 10 years. Gue says he expects 'significant outperformance from energy stocks versus the broader market,' continuing the results from 2022 for years to come. In The Big Interview, Giorgio Caputo, senior fund manager and head of multi-asset strategies at J.O. Hambro Capital Management, is worried about how central banks and markets will respond to rising commodity prices, which could lead to the return of six-dollar gas prices later this year; Caputo says that he is mindful of the risks facing long-duration assets if there is indeed another bout of inflation. That condition also would be a headwind for growth stocks, technology companies, utilities, bond-like equities and more. Also on the show, Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, discusses a recent survey of corporate chief executives whose biggest worry for the year ahead is recession.

Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says that the key disagreement in the market right now -- the one that it struggles to price in -- is when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates and start cutting rates. Until there is some clarity there, the market will continue to struggle, and investors should be eyeing earnings season to see what it says for the strength of the economy and what it signals about a potential recession. Jeffrey Bierman, founder of TheQuantGuy.com, says that he expects the next set of economic data to sound a downbeat note that will turn the market from a soft rally toward six months of trouble that will end in the fourth quarter with a rally. And Axel Merk, chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, says that the market is pricing in a recession already, but that assumes the Fed will get its moves right; he says there could be significant volatility if the central bank struggles to achieve its goals, and notes that gold is being embraced now because it tends to lead into recessionary times. Plus, in the Market Call, David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks growth stocks in a low-growth environment.

Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist at Putnam Investments, expects a recession that impacts corporate earnings more than it does Main Street, though the downturn he foresees is not immediate. Vaillancourt expects the market to be messy, even though he does not think the market will make new lows much beyond the worst of 2022, but he thinks the market will suffer due to the pressure on corporate earnings. Vaillancourt likes international markets right now, notes that there is a wide dispersion of earnings but the conditions in Europe are relatively cheap compared to the United States. The ETF of the Week features Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi discussing the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income fund, which Chuck bought after it was discussed in the segment a few years ago, but which he sold recently during tax-loss harvesting season. And in the Market Call, Jason Browne, president at Alexis Investment Partners and manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF says that international funds are looking good to him for the first time in decades, but notes that he also sees opportunities in domestic markets as they bounce back from 2022's down year.

Veteran money manager Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments has been making 10 forecasts for every new year since the 1990s and he unveiled his 10 predictions for 2023 today, calling for a shallow recession that is followed by an equally shallow recovery before year's end. Doll says inflation will fall by a good amount but not get near the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2 percent, which leaves the market caught in the middle hoping that the central bank will change its policies to appease the market. He doesn't think the Fed will back off, especially when it comes to moving interest rates up to 5.5 percent, where he thinks they will remain into 2024. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the mixed bag of results from the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn talks about investing in stocks while reacting to the news in the Money Life Market Call.

Patrick Luce, economist at ITR Economics says that the slowing cycle the economy will be going through this year will result in a hard landing late this year and into 2024. Luce still sees the consumer being in good shape to help power the economy along, which is why he expects the recession to be mild and reminiscent of the mid-1990s. Still after a recovery that will run most of the second half of this decade, Luce says the market is headed for real trouble -- another Great Depression -- in the 2030s. Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com offers some short and intermediate optimism, noting that the first week of the year tends to portend the action for the entire year and 2023 got off to an optimistic start. Zanger sees the best current opportunities in international stocks, particularly some big-name companies in China. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about taking an annuity or a lump-sum as they leave behind an employer who offered them a pension settlement, and Abby Davisson, co-author of 'Money and Love: An Intelligent Roadmap for Life's Biggest Decisions' joins Chuck for The Book Interview.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, says the end of the overheating economy is drawing near, which is why the economy will continue softening early this year, setting up a rebound once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates which he expects to happen in the fall. Adams expects the Federal Reserve to have two more rate increases over the next two months, driving down economic activity as a result, ultimately delivering the drop in inflation that the Fed is aiming for. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, discusses investors sentiment and which investment strategies held up best for individuals during the downturn of 2022, Silvio Tavares, President and CEO at VantageScore talks about the average American's credit score and how it is trending now that inflation and interest rates are running at their hottest levels in decades and, in the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer of New Constructs explains why pet-supply retailer Chewy is a barking dog of a stock right now.

Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes the stock market could drop by as much as 25 percent this year before rebounding late, saying that stocks could end the year down 10 percent, although with positive surprises they could find a way to finish the year in the black, maybe even by double-digits. That surprise would depend on how quickly the market processes the turn in the economy, which he sees as transitioning toward better times with the worst of the high inflation/rate-hiking cycle now in the past. Cheryl Pate, senior portfolio manager for Angel Oak Capital, also talks about the economy, noting that it's late in the cycle for rate hikes, but still early in the cycle for profit expansion amongst banks and financial-services companies, which historically benefit from high-rate markets. Also on the show, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the ATAC Funds talks about how 2022 was an 'outlier' year statistically, and what that means for investors looking for guidance from technicals on when to favor stocks or bonds moving forward.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrte.com, says he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a full percentage point but to then hold the line for the rest of the year once that hike is in place. McBride was careful to note that he does not expect the Fed to backtrack and start cutting rates at all this year, even as it sees inflation start to ease. That environment -- higher rates but declining inflation -- will create opportunities for savers using high-yield banking instruments. Also on the show, legendary money manager Ralph wanger -- a small-cap ace who ran the Acorn Fund for more than 30 years -- notes that 'Bear markets exist to destroy the stupidities of the previous bull market' and talks about how the current market is in the process of unwinding those excesses. Plus, Tom Lydon of VettaFi goes international with a trending pick as his ETF of the Week, and portfolio manager Andrery Kutuzov of Seven Canyons Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he expects 2023 to be when inflation and interest rates start coming down, which will not be comfortable to digest but he says he expects the stock market to get through it and finish the year higher, overcoming a brief mid-year recession -- and possibly giving up some late 2022 gains as a volatile market bottoms out -- to register a 'better than sub-par year.' Also on the show, Joe Wiggins, author of 'The Intelligent Fund Investor: Practical Steps for Better Results in Active and Passive Funds' and, in the Market Call, Noland Langford of Left Brain Wealth Management talks about where he is finding growth and how corporate bonds have a chance to replace fast-growing companies as a safer, more reasonable way to navigate current market conditions, at least until the market can navigate the current rate and inflation environment.

Rob Arnott, chairman and chief executive officer at Research Affiliates, says that the Federal Reserve has made 'a series of mistakes' that he expects to continue with a pivot away from rate hikes that occurs too late to stop a recession. Still, Arnott believes that slowdown is already priced into the market, meaning that the worst of the bear market -- except for any last capitulation meltdown -- is behind us. Still, Arnott is not ready to invest much in domestic equities now, noting that he'd favor international and emerging markets stocks because they're better values and those markets seem to have already passed the 'peak fear' point that makes them more attractive than a U.S. market that's not quite there yet. Arnott also notes that value stocks are 'in their cheapest quintile in history,' making them a place for investors to turn once the market reaches the full-on buying stage again later this year. Also on the show, in the Market Call, Mark Travis, manager of the Intrepid Capital Funds, discusses the benefits of investing in companies that make beer, shoes and underwear.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments says that 2022 was harder than anyone anticipated for investors and markets, in large measure because the stock and bond markets came into the year 'ridiculously expensive.' The market's decline has brought valuations down, but Doll considers both stocks and bonds to be 'in no-man's land' now, better than they were a year ago but not yet attractive. Doll reviews his 10 forecasts made for 2022 and how the year turned out; he'll return to the show in early January with his predictions for the year ahead. Meanwhile, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors makes his forecasts for the closed-end fund business in 2023 today, and his top sector bets for the new year are some of 2022's weakest areas, most notably real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real assets. He also expects international bonds and more to be in the sweet spot, and suggested that investors tilt equity portfolios toward value, dividend and international funds. Plus, Chuck puts a bow on the year with a commentary on the day his daughter is getting married.

John Bonnanzio, editor at Fidelity Monitor and Insight, says that the economy keeps chugging along, and that the data suggests that the economy can avoid recession and the Federal Reserve can deliver a soft landing. Speaking in the Market Call segment, Bonnanzio says he is making gradual shifts to portfolios, moving away gradually from large-cap stocks and technology companies and moving towards value stocks including the ones that are economically sensitive that he thinks could be poised to rebound if his recession/soft landing call comes to fruition. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi makes the iShares MSCI Turkey fund his pick for ETF of the week, noting that its the best-performing non-leveraged ETF out there for 2022, but that's no reason to think you want to jump in now, after the big gain and with so many other emerging markets and other parts of the world also presenting good values now. Plus, Chuck talks about some financial chores you can resolve, plan for or make your goals as you look ahead into the New Year.

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group foresees 'the best buying opportunity in the global stock market for at least a decade' to come into view after the market goes through a recession and some pain in the first half of 2023. He believes that valuations will reflect the economic ills first, saying investors should be prepared for 'significant further losses' of as much as 25 percent before the market reaches the purchasing point. Talking technical analysis, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders certainly agrees with the assessment that trouble is coming, but he believes the downturn will take root and that any recovery -- at least anything occurring in the new year -- is likely to be lackluster. Plus, Chuck interviews Rob Wells, author of 'The Insider: How the Kiplinger Newsletter Bridged Washington and Wall Street.'

Patrick O'Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, dislikes the cliche of a 'stockpicker's market' but he says the proverbial shoe fits for the year ahead, because while the overall tenor of the market has been muted and the economy has been bordering on recession, there are industry-leading stocks with solid balance sheets and profits and nice dividends that investors can build a portfolio around. O'Hare says the first half of the year will be challenging until inflation is under better control, and that the entirety of 2023 could be a struggle if the Federal Reserve and the markets don't get on the same page fairly soon; as a result, investors will want to look at income-production and safe havens in stocks and bonds to ride it out to better times. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discusses the uncertainties, worries and concerns that a majority of consumers have entering the new year, noting that this may be the worst year he's ever seen in terms of how shaky consumers and investors are at the turn of the calendar, plus Brian Shephardson, portfolio manager of the James Advantage Funds, talks value-oriented investing in the Market Call.

Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Portfolio Solutions, says that persistent inflation -- for longer than most observers are expecting -- is going to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish for longer, which investors will have to adjust to by diversifying away from the mega-cap stocks that have been a particular drag on portfolios this year. He suggests that investors look to small-cap stocks, non-US issues plus real assets and value investments to smooth out the ride in the year ahead. In The NAVigator segment, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance looks back at 2022 for the closed-end fund industry and reviews his forecasts, most notably how his basket of five funds for the year came out ahead of the market and poised to rebound in the new year. Plus, University of Toronto professor Opher Baron discusses how retailers are changing return policies in response to consumer habits and global supply-chain issues -- saying that consumers must pay more attention than ever to how stores handle returns -- and forensic accountant Tracy Coenen -- author of 'The Marriage Money Guide (for Women)' -- discusses financial fidelity and how couples can keep their finances on the level so that money doesn't make them lose their minds.

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management says that investors can expect a recession and market troubles during the first half of the New Year, but a recovery to start later on, noting that he expects the stock market to bottom out while the economy gets to where interest rates and inflation start becoming more reasonable. Cronk says that investors looking to be back in the market next year should be dipping into sectors where demand is consistent regardless of the economy, meaning health care, life sciences, defense companies and energy stocks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi -- the founder of ETF Trends -- reverts to his roots and makes a trend-following fund his pick as the ETF of the Week and, in the Market Call, Scot Bennett of Invest With Rules talks about how the rules apply and how well they have been working in today's difficult market conditions.

Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Americas chief economist and head of global portfolio construction at The Vanguard Group, says that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be reluctant to stop interest-rate hikes in 2023, and while they will get inflation under control it will be a slow process to get it down to the 2 percent level they are hoping for until at least 2024 and possibly 2025. As a result, any economic recovery is likely to be lackluster, featuring more choppiness and sideways movements than significant, fast rebounds. Alliaga-Diaz says the stock market looks better now than a year ago -- when it was trading at up to 40 percent over fair value -- but that it is positioned to deliver between 6 and 10 percent annualized over the next decade, which means returns going forward will struggle to reach historic norms. In the Market Call, Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, says he expects a 'supply chain super cycle' to help sustain or even spur economic growth as consumer spending slows in the face of inflation, which should support the economy as it goes through a transition, but he notes that those conditions should make stock investors particularly picky about what they are buying now. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting.

Dana Telsey, chief executive/chief research officer at Telsey Advisory Group -- a leading analyst of the retail industry -- says she is cautious about the status of consumers and how they will respond to continuing inflation, noting that spending has moderated a bit. Telsey thinks retailers will see less spending and success than the last two years, but she thinks that retailers who can get through these times without much leftover inventory will be healthy enough to weather the storm that's coming early in 2023; she expects that to spur a few last-minute deals that consumers can take advantage of this week. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on how to beat back sequence-of-return risk, Fidelity's Meredith Stoddard discusses the firm's 14th annual survey on financial New Year's resolutions, and Stephen Dodson, manager of The Bretton Fund, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab and Co. says that investors should be hoping that the medicine necessary to help a weaker economy reduce the inflationary fever would be best taken sooner than later, leading to 'a much more meaningful deterioration of the economy ... that sets up a Fed pause.' With that in mind, Sonders expects more short-term market pain, setting up a recovery and better opportunities beyond that. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Digital Realty Trust back into the Danger Zone this week, noting that while the stock is already down significantly, it could drop another 75 percent before he thinks the market price will reflect the company's true value. Plus, Vivian Tsai, chairman of the College Savings Foundation discusses programs for gifting future college tuition monies for the holidays, and Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, makes his debut in the Market Call talking investments in exchange-traded funds.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that with the market being driven by inflation, there is a very slim chance that the Federal Reserve 'sticks the landing, gets it just right and we're off to the races again,' but an equally small worry about the central bank taking rates too high and making a giant mistake that craters the market. He believes the Federal Reserve likely lands somewhere in the middle, triggering a small, shallow recession. Ritholtz says investors need to stay focused on their goals and not get too excited by market moves in 2023, noting 'You have to be short-term greedy, not long-term greedy.' Also on the show, Stacey Morris, head of energy research at VettaFi, talks midstream energy infrastructure investing in The NAVigator segment and, in the Market Call, Eric Schoenstein, chief investment officer at Jensen Investment Management discusses focusing on quality amid volatile, choppy markets.

Mike Liss, portfolio manager for the American Century Value fund -- who uses a relative-value approach and is always trying to find the stocks that are "most undervalued" -- says that there has been a shift in what represents a great risk-reward since the beginning of 2022. While energy stocks remain a reasonable value, Liss says that health care, industrial and real estate investment trusts are areas that have become particularly attractive entering the new year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a small, young fund that focuses on offsetting carbon emissions as his ETF of the Week, Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses holiday financial stress and how inflation and rising interest rates are contributing to consumers' agitation this year, and Chuck talks about Wednesday's news that the Securities and Exchange Commission is advancing its first big changes to trading rules in nearly two decades.

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research says that investors in 2023 will find out "the difference between an all-weather radial tire and a 30-percent total return," with one being "a Goodyear and the other a great year." Dad jokes aside, his look ahead for the New Year includes the idea that 2023 will not be a repeat of 2022, and while there will still be significant volatility, he otherwise thinks that the market's leadership will turn over, with lagging sectors coming to the fore and the few hot places of the market receding. Moreover, he expects solid returns from the stock and bond market, though he thinks it may take until the second half of the year for those gains to materialize. Also on the show, Ed Carson of Investor's Business Daily discusses the rebound in investor optimism -- it was a big move, though the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index remains in pessimistic territory -- and Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates talks growths tocks in the Market Call.

Harry Dent, the founder of Dent Research, says that the stock market's troubles in 2022 were just a precursor to real trouble, with the next wave in a downward cycle coming early next year, right after the market wakes up to the fact that there is neither a Santa Claus rally or a January effect to get the new year started on good footing. Dent has been calling for a market decline of 85 percent or more in stocks -- moving from their peak to their trough -- and sees the massive decline being the next step, but he notes that the one silver lining is that bond funds are set up to not only be a safe haven but for significant gains. Also, he notes that once the market completes the crash cycle, he expects the next long bull market to begin. Dent's opinions tend to be outliers, and that is proven on this show as D.R. Barton Jr., chief investment strategist at Finiac, says he actually expects a Santa Claus rally this year, and he believes that technical indicators are showing that a market bottom may already be in place. He expects the new year will be more of the old one, volatile, choppy and with a lot of downward pressure just as we've seen in 2022. Plus, the Book Interview features Howard Yaruss, author of 'Understandable Economics: Because Understanding Our Economy Is Easier Than You Think and More Important Than You Know.'

Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, says that a soft landing for the economy is achievable, so long as inflation comes down without dramatically increasing the unemployment rate. He says it's 'so far, so good,' in terms of current conditions, though he notes it is still early. Nick expects a mild recession in 2023, but says 'Investors can get some pretty good deals with some of the yields that are available across the spectrum in fixed income, and that includes the equity markets too,' noting that dividend payers and growers are well positioned for the New Year. Dave Breazzano of Polen Capital Credit talks about the state of the corporate credit and high-yield markets, noting that the market's expectation that high interest rates will create more bankruptcies has priced paper attractively for investors who don't expect a spike in defaults. Also on the show, investment analyst Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts Five9 in 'The Danger Zone' as the latest 'zombie stock' with a destiny of running out of cash before it can run up any profits, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about deciding the best time to take Social Security.

Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles, says that while interest rates and inflation are rising, the rate of those increases is slowing, and that part of the classic cycle doesn't ever get resolved quickly. is part of the classic cycle that has historically taken time to work out. The 89-year-old bond investing legend says the Federal Reserve has a tough job on its hands and places the central bank's odds of being successful in executing a soft landing are about 10 percent, though he thinks there's a better chance that it can push through the cycle without a downturn turning into a crash. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on how many stocks, funds and ETFs is too many for one investor to won, and portfolio manager Steve O'Neill of RiverNorth discusses why 'Tis the season for investors to go bargain hunting and discount shopping for closed-end funds.

Jeff Rosenkranz, manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund, says that the fixed-income market is waiting for proof that the Federal Reserve's moves are starting to beat back inflation, but that stability in interest rates -- likely to be in place until the Fed starts cutting rates late in 2023 or into 2024 -- will drive good performance in fixed income over the next six to 12 months. Rosenkranz says that will help investors who are about to live through a recession which he says will be 'harder rather than softer in nature.' On the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi discusses a China fund that is on the upswing but not quite yet trending, which he says investors may want to add to their watchlist entering the New Year. Also on the show, Anthony Sassine, senior investment strategist at KraneShares, gives his assessment of the electric vehicle sector -- going way beyond Tesla -- and Chuck answers a listener's question about ways to save a little more money in 2023.

Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, expects the Federal Reserve to do two more big interest rate hikes -- one now and one in the first quarter of 2023 -- which will keep the bond market choppy, but he believes the worst pain the bond market has suffered this year has passed. He expects the Fed to pause for the remainder of 2023, rather than pivot in its policies, with inflation having peaked but receding slowly. Mondillo cites strong fixed-income fundamentals -- particularly for municipal bonds -- despite the economic slowdown he sees ahead. Eric Veiel, head of global equity for T. Rowe Price, discusses the firm's recent research showing how its active management strategies outperformed appropriate index benchmarks over the last 20 years, and points out that active management doesn't necessarily deserve the bad name that indexing has given it in that time frame. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question about taking required minimum distributions from retirement accounts given current market conditions, and we revisit a recent Market Call interview with Amber Fairbanks, portfolio manager at Mirova.

Benjamin Halliburton, founder and chief investment officer at the Building Benjamins investment newsletter, says that inflation and interest rates bottoming out last year after a decline/trend that lasted for 40 years has now put investors into a new territory, forcing them to consider areas and industries that benefitted from decades of disinflation. It's the biggest inflection point of most investors' lifetimes, he says, but it's an adjustment that people will need to make to keep the profits rolling in the changed conditions they'll see for years to come. Also on the show, Washington Post columnist Helaine Olen discusses how Medicare Advantage will be used by more consumers this year than traditional Medicare coverage, and how that is creating a disadvantage to the country and to the many people who don't understand entirely what they are signing up for and who are falling for bad commercial messages. Plus, Chuck talks about giving gifts of stock for the children and grandchildren in your life.

Ben Ashby, head of investments at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that the U.S. stock market may be better positioned than the rest of the world right now, that's mostly because the outlook for almost all global markets right now is grim. He's anticipating trouble -- and sparse to no growth for the U.S. market and economy -- with little reason for optimism expected until the end of next year. Meanwhile, he described three types of bear markets -- apa Bear, Mama Bear and Baby Bear -- and says he thinks current problems will lead to the middle ground, but notes that a Mama Bear can be deep and difficult. Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the national Retail Federation and a member of the National Association for Business Economics Outlook Survey Committee discusses the results of the latest poll of economists, released today, showing that the researchers aren't holding out much optimism for 2023. Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts another 'zombie stock' into The Danger Zone and in the Market Call, Andy Braun, portfolio manager for the Pax Large Cap fund, talks about stocks.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S and P Global Ratings, sees trouble ahead for the economy early in 2023, as it moves through a recession and adjusts to slowing growth that is likely to be negative early on before picking up in May or June. Even with those gains, he expects the year to be flat on growth overall until 2024. Also on the show, Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive at Saratoga Investment Corp. -- a large business-development company -- talks about the edge that BDCs have given income investors during today's sluggish market conditions and discusses why he thinks that advantage could grow as the market works through a potential recession. Plus, Brent Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset Management, covers stocks in the Market Call.

Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that investors should expect volatile choppy markets -- moving sideways at best -- while the economy pivots away from the rising inflation and interest rate trend, but that investors shouldn't expect much good news until at least May of 2023. Kelly says that he expects China to pivot on some of its policies early in 2023, which will make its economy and stock market the only market with higher cash flows and an easier central bank come springtime, encouraging investment there while the rest of the world markets are volatile and choppy. He also suggests that investors will want to take the reasonable yields they can get on bonds while waiting for the equity markets to improve. Also on the show today, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi goes international with a trend-following pick for his ETF of the Week, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com discusses all of the action around jobs and the labor market this week and what it portends for the news cycle and the stock market, and Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting, which he notes might be as popular with investors this year as holiday shopping is with consumers.

Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that fallout from the current global supply-chain crisis will be a worldwide shift to there is going to "near-sourcing," the ability to have suppliers closer to home, which will lead to Corporate American spending money to make it happen, which should benefit industrial companies and energy stocks moving forward. Those sectors plus health care should be leading as the market and economy head into a volatile 2023 that McKnight says may not include a recession if the Federal Reserve gets its moves right. Also on the show, Bankrate.com analyst Sarah Foster returns to the show to discuss how inflation has been hitting some of the biggest holiday expense items hard and how higher costs could be the Grinch to steal Christmas traditions this year, plus we revisit a recent chat all about the financial and banking sectors with David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large-Cap Financial and Hennessy Small-Cap Financial funds.

Glory Liu, author of "Adam Smith's America: How a Scottish Philosopher Became an Icon of American Capitalism," says that people evoking the famous economist's memory to support their thinking are typically wrong about his teachings, noting that the patron saint of capitalism had a lot of ideas that have mostly been forgotten by leaders and politicians trying to appropriate his fame and use it as an endorsement. She suggests it might be a warning sign as to what is being promoted using Smith as a tool. Also on the show, Patrick Fisher, founder of Creation Investments Capital Management, discusses active ESG investments in banking, micro-loans and fintech in underserved parts of the world, plus retirement planner Jeremy Keil of Keil Financial Partners talks about the impact that sustained inflation is having on senior clients and how people can respond and plan to get through price hikes.

Eric Boughton, portfolio manager/chief analyst at Matisse Capital -- which runs mutual funds that invest in closed-end funds -- says that investors can find attractive discounts in a few sectors right now, notably in municipal bonds, high-yield and bank-loan funds are worth investigating in fixed income, with foreign stocks and MLP funds (investing in master limited partnerships) leading the opportunity set in equities. Boughton notes that investors can do significant "discount capture" -- making profitable trades as discounts to net asset value narrow and change, using that volatility as an additional way to generate profits. Also on the show, Bankrate.com analyst Sarah Foster discusses the pressure consumers are feeling -- and especially younger shoppers -- to spend up this holiday season, plus we revisit a late October interview with Chris Davis, portfolio manager and chairman of Davis Advisors, a conversation Chuck has described as "one of the very best interviews we will do on the show this year."

It's Black Friday, ahead of Cyber Monday and the start of the home stretch for holiday shopping, but it's not just about what's happening with retailers. John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors sorts through the big discounts in the closed-end fund world right now and comes up with four issues -- two in stocks and two in fixed-income -- that would be sound additions to an investor's holiday wish list now. Then the talk turns to retail fraud as Melanie McGovern of the International Association of Better Business Bureaus, discusses how online fraud losses thus far in 2022 have hit record levels of nearly $400 million before the holiday shopping season even gets up to speed, then Julie Ramhold of DealNews talks about the differences between Black Friday and Cyber Monday and how consumers can make the most of both days and the rest of the holiday bargains, plus Chuck discusses steps that listeners can take to keep the holidays in perspective during times of rising interest rates and high inflation.

Colin McWey, portfolio manager at Heartland Advisors, says that current market conditions are setting up well for value-oriented investors, because it is clear that many companies e market is building a scenario where a lot of companies will be worth much more in three to five years, although a number of stocks that were overpriced in 2020 and '21 will never re-attain past highs. The wash-out of companies that had a disconnect between fundamentals and enormous expectations was necessary, McWey says, but now the market is going through a healthy cleansing where the market is starting to respect a valuation discipline again, focusing on fundamentals in order to realize that profit potential as the market rebounds in the next few years. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a dividend-income fund with a covered-call strategy his pick for ETF of the Week, Regina Conway of Slickdeals discusses consumers' shopping expectations for Black Friday and hedge-fund manager Steven Grey of Grey Value Management talks about stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says that the market has reached a key point, and he believes the lows the market made in June and retouched in October -- in the 3,500 range for the standard & Poor's 500 -- will stick, and last several quarters. He remains positive on the market for now, noting that his key indicators remain green, but notes he won't be surprised if the market re-tests those lows before moving forward again in 2023. Also on the show, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management, discusses the rising cost of the "12 Days of Christmas," noting that inflation in the firm's Christmas Price Index is running even higher than inflation elsewhere in the economy, and how that reflects current events and broad economic conditions, author Paul Tucker discusses his new book, "Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order" and, in the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., discusses large-cap companies with a history of paying/raising dividends.