Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

James Choi, a professor of finance at Yale University, discusses his recent study on 'Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors' -- which examines the recommendations of personalities like Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey compared to the standards of economists - -and discusses how the standard advice of saving 10 percent (or as much as possible) of your income from the beginnings of your working life leads to more times of struggle and no less in assets come retirement compared to smoothing savings out more proportionately against income over a lifetime spent saving, earning and spending. Also on the show, Jeremy Pagan, equity research analyst at Morningstar discusses his recent analysis on the pros and cons of investing in REITs versus putting money directly into real estate in a rising-rate environment and, in the Market Call, Chris Natividad, chief investment officer at Equbot -- which runs the AI Powered Equity ETF -- talks about using artificial intelligence as a means of picking stocks.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments says that the market has rallied this year on the hopes of a pivot from the FederalReserve, but the strong economic results have pushed the prospect of a Fed change in policy have moved farther out. Now, he says, the market is looking at 'an inflection point for earnings,' and he notes that current conditions have historically lead to a recession, which he sees as coming next year though he acknowledges it may not be a deep, long recession. Senitra horbrook, credit cards editor at ThePointsGuy.com talks about how rewards and loyalty programs are facing inflation the same way as the rest of the economy, and how consumers should respond to those changes. Plus Stan Haitchcock -- best known as 'Stan the Annuity Man' -- talks about how savers should be looking at annuities in a rising rate, high-inflation environment.

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market has never bottomed before the start of a recession, so if the current downturn doesn't rise to that level yet but you think it will, then the bottom has not been reached. The market, historically, peaks about six months before a recession, and it appears to be climbing to that peak and perhaps holding it longer than normal. It mean, he said, that there is likely a rally that ends in trouble later this year. Meanwhile, Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says that the market has been in a trendless environment for months, failing to reach higher highs or lower lows to signal either an uptrend or downtrend; he sees continued opportunities in individual stocks even as the market moves sideways until it sorts things out. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs discusses a stock that looks good until you read the footnotes of its quarterly earnings filing carefully, but also highlights a stock investors might want to buy after reading its quarterly notes, and tax expert Ed Slott of IRAHelp.com talks about how changes to the tax code and also changing stock market conditions are impacting the tax-planning moves investors might want to make now.

Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says investors have good reason to be defensive right now because while he sees strong potential for the market to make new highs in the next six months to the end of the year, only to then embark on a deep bear market. He says 'you have to approach this market by being bullish and bearish at the same time.' In The NAVigator segment, Jay Rhame, chief executive officer at Reaves Asset Management -- president of the Reaves Utility Income Fund says that the dividend-growth potential for utility companies makes them a viable investment option despite today's high interest-rate, high inflation conditions which typically are bad for the sector. Also on the show, Sam Huisache discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that 75 percent of Americans who move have regrets about the changes they've made, and Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks in the Market Call.

John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that the stock market has come back around to a good time for investors to buy the dips, largely because the market's decline last year did 'so much of the heavy lifting' to put stocks in a better buying position. While Petrides expects continued earnings contraction, he says 'We're probably closer to the bottom than we were at this time last year.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi picks a precious metals fund for a 200-day moving average play on current conditions, Meagan Dow, senior strategist at Edward Jones discusses the firm's recent survey showing that Americans are prioritizing financial wellness but aren't making much much progress toward it., and Burns McKinney of NFJ Investment Group, talks about buying value stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

Zed Osmani, portfolio manager for the Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, says the domestic and global economies could avoid a recession this year, although he sees a 65 to 70 percent chance of a sharp slowdown instead. Osmani says the key word for the year is 'pivot,' the centerpiece of a 'healthy bull-bear debate' about whether central banks will pivot in 2023 and how fast they will pivot; the result of that back-and-forth will be heightened volatility and a tough outcome to predict. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the recent news that America's cumulative credit card debt had reached an all-time high, Hailey Neff discusses a recent survey from Todayshomeowner.com showing that one in 20 American homes carries a million-dollar pricetag but asking whether one in 20 Americans can afford that much, and Kevin Kelly of Kelly ETFs talks about thematic investing in the Money Life Market Call.

Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that the technical indicators that the market peaked several weeks, 'screaming overbought, screaming this is not the time to be buying if you are not going to be holding forever,' which has the market in a short-term downturn even as the long-term outlook is positive. He notes that in times like these with conflicting signals, investors can nibble and be selective buyers, but they want to stick to the best names with positive fundamentals that can be held in line with the longer-term positive forecast. Jon Maier, chief investment officer at Global X discusses thematic investing and which themes or specialties stand out under current market conditions and which to avoid. Maier says that capital expenditure from corporations remain strong and investors should ride with that idea, particularly at a time when it appears that consumers are ready to cut spending, fatigued by inflation. And in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund discusses his search for growth-company stocks that 'can change the world or are in the process of changing the world.'

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, says in The Big Interview that the economic data showing that both the economy and inflation are running hotter than expected is going to force the Federal reserve to make some moves that are more likely to trigger not just a recession but a harder landing for the economy. Bostjancic says the Fed has plenty of reason to keep tightening and the markets are starting to price in a bigger rate hike for the March meeting; if February economic data shows continued economic heat, the central bank's response could be the catalyst for a more protracted downturn. But not all economists agree with Bostjancic -- or with each other for that matter -- as shown when Ken Simonson, chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America discusses the latest Outlook survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today and showing that there is no strong consensus for how the current situation will play out. Plus, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts DoorDash in the Danger Zone, noting that it's a zombie stock already well down from 2021 peaks but likely to deliver a second helping of losses as it sinks to a very low fair value. And Stan Haithcock, 'Stan the Annuity Man' joins Chuck to answer a question about a listener's pending pension-versus-annuity decision.

Jim Welsh, portfolio manager at Smart Portfolios and editor of the MacroTides newsletter, says that the next downturn is being set up by recent moves that have bolstered confidence and lulled investors into feeling good. When the market turns, closer to mid-year, Welsh thinks the disappointment of those investors will make the market more vulnerable to 'a significant decline,' which he believes will take the Standard and Poor's 500 down to the 3,500 level, with a hard-landing economy putting 3,200 within the realm of possibilities. In The Big Interview, Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, foresees a 'growth recession,' likely to start in the second half of 2023 as consumers start to tighten up their spending. Rick says a recession, if it happens, will be mild. In The NAVigator segment, Steven Perry, vice president at XA Investments, discusses the benefits and risks associated with leverage in closed-end funds during a rising-rate environment, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how he set up -- and changed over time -- the allowance practices used with his daughters.

Legendary mutual fund manager Bill Nygren of the Oakmark Fund, says that any recession would be an unusual one because there has never been such a weak economic environment with such strong labor and other key conditions. That makes it that auto stocks, consumer lending companies and other businesses that typically suffer in a recession could actually perform well. Nygren emphasizes that despite changing conditions, buying high-quality, cash-generating businesses at reasonable prices continues to work, noting that 'there are a lot of stocks today at single-digit P/E multiples,' and that investors who stock up on those names will look back in five years happy that they purchased the companies despite current chaos. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a young, unique fund that could diversify any portfolio his 'ETF of the Week,' and Mike Winter of Leatherback Asset Management and the Leatherback Long/Short Alternative Yield ETF makes his debut in the Market Call talking a mix of buys and shorts.

Brad Lamensdorf, strategist at The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and chief executive at Active Alts, says the market is 'very, very extended' and is poised for a 20 percent correction that he expects to hit in the second quarter, driving the Standard and Poor's 500 below 3,500 before any real recovery can begin. Lamensdorf says the decline he expects will not be the result of a recession, because he believes the economy may be able to sidestep that kind of growth slowdown but stocks can't, owing to a fair value estimate that he pegs at 3,000 on the index. George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, looks at the same uncertainties and says they have moved gold to 'right where it should be,' positioned for a good year as the market sorts out everything from inflation and interest rates to geopolitical concerns in China and the war in Ukraine. Plus, Laura Adams discusses a Finder survey showing that more than half of American parents aren't paying their kids an allowance, and how the money adults save now will likely cost the children later due to missed educational opportunities.

Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley says 'Investors may be relying too much on recent trends to extrapolate corporate earnings resilience' at a time when corporate earnings are not impressive compared to years past. Meanwhile, slowing economic growth means 'There's still a lot of room for downside in company earnings estimates if we just revert to the mean, forget about hard landing or soft landing." While Shalett thinks a recession is coming, nearly 70 percent of Americans believe it's already here, according to a recent survey; research analyst Jaime Dunaway-Seale of Clever Real Estate discusses the disconnect between economic numbers and consumer expectations. And in the Market Call, portfolio manager Eric McNew of Summit Global Investments discusses managing risk in current market conditions.

Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments, says that while the economic picture remains muddled, there has been an earnings recession -- successive quarters of decline -- and there is now potential for recovery. He says in The Big Interview that the Federal Reserve will not be able to put off a recession indefinitely, but that how investors feel about that economic slowdown can depend mostly on what level the decline starts from and gets to, and the Fed can mitigate a lot of the pain if it manages interest rates properly. feel different based on how far activity falls. Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that the technical indicators are all flashing go signs and 2023 is setting up strong with the market continuing to make higher lows and higher highs, with more and more securities participating in that rising trend. Fox says that if the market can stay above 4,300 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it will soon be testing levels as high as 4,500. In The NAVigator segment, Will Rhind of GraniteShares says that the peak in inflation has created a more favorable outlook for business-development companies and closed-end funds. Plus, Frank Bonanno, managing director at StoneCastle Cash Management talks about how higher interest rates have made cash a viable, investable asset class again and how the ultra wealthy might better manage and protect cash in insured bank accounts.

Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that a recent study done by his firm shows that many recent drivers of short-term market swings won't matter over time, because 'long-term returns after years like we had last year in 2022 are attractive but volatile,' which is precisely what he expects for the remainder of this year. Moreover, Ferrara notes that history indicates that -- if history holds true -- the market is likely to show a good five-year stretch after the troubled year, although that period will be rocky and is likely to include one down year too. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, goes back to the Vanguard Group for the second week in a row -- a rare move for him with any fund family -- to find his ETF of the Week, and Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors, says in the Market Call that he believes the market and economy have reached 'a generational pivot point' caused by the current form of capitalism 'not working for enough people,' and discusses stocks that can thrive through a rocky transitional period.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance, says that the market has reached a time when the better things are in the present, the gloomier they set up for the future. He says that rather than a soft or hard landing for the economy, we could be facing 'no landing,' which further pushes back difficult times because 'the recession has not been canceled, it has just been delayed. I would argue that we are delaying the inevitable and ultimately the longer we delay it the worse it is going to be.' In the Market Call, James Abate, chief investment officer for Centre Asset Management and portfolio manager for the Centre Funds talks infrastructure investing. Plus, the latest installment of the Weird Financial News, featuring the 6-year-old who placed massive food orders from GrubHub when he was supposed to be playing on his father's phone.

John Mousseau, chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors says that he sees the potential for the Federal Reserve to steer the economy clear of a recession, and while he expects volatility and notes that investors are right to be nervous about high inflation and the inverted yield curve, they should not be scared away from fixed income now. Mousseau notes that with inflation starting to ease up while rates have been rising, investors are being paid well for taking on short- and intermediate bonds. In The Book Interview, Scarlett Cochran -- author of 'It's Not About the Money: A Proven Path to Building Wealth and Living the Rich Life You Deserve,' discusses finding the right balance of savings and investing with spending and enjoying life, and she and Chuck discuss how one area where she diverges from most experts is in suggesting that debt be a tool to help consumers embrace and use smartly rather than avoid out of fear. Also on the show, Rona Guymon of Nationwide Annuity discusses the firm's eighth annual Advisor Authority survey, which shows that many investors plan to keep working in retirement, and may move in retirement to where it is cheapest to live, even if that means moving away from family. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to size up a financial adviser whose recommendations are more aggressive than she believes is right for someone her age.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that macroeconomic signals show that a slowdown and recession are coming in the second half of the year, and while investors should be happy with current conditions and technicals supporting a current rally, she believes that signs like a sharply inverted yield curve, declines in new orders portend a major downtrend in growth. As a result, investors are facing a challenge in managing risk now, and she suggests leaning more into fixed income now with a hard landing ahead, while also resisting the temptation to pull away from the market when they see it moving toward a bottom soon. Roland did acknowledge that later this year there may come a time when investors are much less happy with the economic backdrop but quite pleased with the stock market conditions. Also on the show, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs delivers a Valentine's Day bouquet by talking about a stock he likes now, noting that it's in the same industry as one of the companies he dislikes the most, allowing him to compare the two. Plus, in the Market Call, Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management discusses his 'GPS Method' for choosing exchange-traded funds.

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the current rally is not a sign of a new bull market, but rather proof that the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes haven't really had much impact on the economy yet. She expects labor market softness to increase, layoffs to start and unemployment to rise, with the Fed not pulling back on interest rates until 2024, and while investors are waiting for that pivot they are likely to feel the effects of a hard landing for the economy. Smith's short and intermediate take -- dramatically different than other experts in the Big Interview this week --- said that while she can't say the forecast for the next year is particularly positive, she believes the returns for the next five years will be in line with historic norms. Jeff Bishop, chief executive at RagingBull.com, says that the technical indicators are all looking good, but he's wary of the fundamentals and while that caution has him leaning to the bearish side, the market's current trend is bullish enough that investors should be buying the dips now. In The NAVigator segment, Michael Beth, director of trading at WallachBeth Capital, discusses the challenges posed by liquidity issues that can cost closed-end fund investors real money when it comes to making trades efficiently. PLUS, Chuck talks about a sure-thing financial bet that's based on something investors will be watching at this weekend's Super Bowl.

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that equities bottom when inflation peaks, and that process -- typically coupled with the Federal Reserve becoming less hawkish -- is well underway. Papic says the Fed's downshift in the size of rate hikes at a time when inflation remains elevated is a sign that the central bank has already shifted its policy focus, and will lead to consumers having more money in their pocket and setting up 'a pretty bullish environment.' Papic expects the market and economy to be strong through 2023, but does seem some storm clouds on the horizon for late 2024, fertilized by some Fed action in trying to ultimately hit target inflation numbers. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to small-cap stocks -- which financial advisers have been looking at as one of the more promising areas of the market for this year -- and makes a growth fund his ETF of the Week, Matt Zajechowski discusses a study done for Forbes Advisor showing that nearly 80 percent of the members of the millennial and Gen Z generations have gotten financial advice from social media, and Chuck answers a listener's question about dealing with collectibles from long-ago childhoods.

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says there is a higher probability of a soft landing today than anyone foresaw at the end of 2022, and that the stock market's strong January proved that investors are buying into the narrative. That said, Garretty says that what people expect a soft landing to be is 'fuzzy.' She expects a time of slowdown and belt tightening, with a little bit of pain and discomfort. Also on the show is Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which shows that the strong start to the year has investors feeling better than they have in months, although the improving feelings are tempered by an increase in consumers' financial stress levels. Also, Financial adviser and author Anthony Saccaro, discusses his new book, 'More Life Than Money: How Not to Outlive Your Savings,' and Chuck answers a listener's question about using an old credit card that is no longer needed for day-to-day financial needs but which has a great fixed rate.

Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says we may be 'close to the finish line with respect to how much [earnings estimates] needed to come down,' noting that earnings estimates have already come down about as far as they are likely to. Still, that doesn't give Mian reason to expect a strong rebound; he says corporate performance will lag the earnings cycle, which will lead to a sideways market with the real rebound to come in 2024. In the Talking Technicals segment, Jason Brown of The Brown Report says that he believes the market has stopped falling but has moved into a sideways channel, which could last for a while but which will help to build a base for a new bull market rally. Also on the show, Vince Shorb of the National Financial Educators Council discusses a survey showing that Americans believe they are losing a big chunk of money every year to their own financial illiteracy. In The Market Call, Mark Salzinger, chief investment officer at Salzinger Sheaff Brock, talks about traditional funds and ETFs.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that 'everything is lining up pretty well that the Fed can shepherd the economy to the other side,' and that the markets are starting to agree with that conclusion, expecting a soft landing -- anemic growth but avoiding a deep decline -- and price improvement from here. Mullarkey also notes that he sees 2023 as 'the year of the yield,' which he described as 'a great opportunity to go to the fixed income buffet table and pick from it right now,' noting that he particularly likes U.S. corporate bonds. In The Book Interview, author Drago Dimitrov, discusses what he thinks investors should really know about the underlying operations of the stocks they purchase, as covered by his book 'What Does This Company Do? Understanding a Business and its Risks' David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes that conversation a step further as he discusses a real-estate company that's a 'zombie stock,' but also part of a troubling wave within an industry. Plus, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub covers the site's recent survey showing that -- no matter what the official numbers are saying about prices -- a majority of Americans believe inflation is going to keep getting worse this year.

Lawrence McMillan of OptionStrategist.com, president of McMillan Analysis, says that the technical indicators have all lined up so where there are no sell signals and the market could easily move up to recapture its August highs, though he acknowledges that the big concern is not something in the charts but rather is the Federal Reserve, 'which is not exactly bending over backwards to help the markets.' McMillan notes that he would like to see a confirming signal from a cumulative volume indicator to be convinced that it's a full-fledged bull market, but he intends to ride the trends while determining if the market is building long-term confidence. In The Big Interview, Tadas Viskanta, editor at Abnormal Returns, discusses how the changing landscape of financial blogs and media has left investors swimming in a sea of data that can be hard to cut through without succumbing to confirmation bias and other bad behavioural concerns. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, is back for The NAVigator, looking at how the market's hot start to the new year has changed the outlook for various closed-end fund sectors and the moves investors might want to consider now and, in the Market Call, Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses the X-Out method for investing in large-cap stocks.

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says that while the market and economic fundamentals look pretty bad, those problems have been so obvious for so long that the market has adjusted to where it is now letting slight improvements in the data lead it higher. As a result, even if the numbers show just slight improvement, the market can react positively, which should make it that both the economy and market look much better late in 2023. Amoroso is concerned that the technicals overreacted to a good January, which could lead to short-term volatility or downturn, although she generally finds technicals showing a longer-term positive trend. In the ETF of the Week segment, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, revisits his pick from last week -- the classic Standard and Poor's 500 fund that started the exchange-traded fund business -- with a twist, making an equal-weight index fund his selection. And in the Market Call, Lauren Hill, portfolio manager and research analyst at Westwood Investment Management discusses large-cap and consumer-discretionary stocks.

Contrarian-minded commodities expert Adam Rozencwajg, co-manager of the Goehring and Rozencwajg Resources fund says the energy market 'has a really unique setup' where prices have risen but money and investment has not flowed to the business, which is likely to extend the positive edge and duration of the current energy cycle. Rozencwajg says tight energy supplies will continue, having bullish implications for the whole sector until investors start pushing money into the sector. Also on the show, Jenna Lemair of Insuranks.com discusses the petflation and the site's survey on how animals and pet owners have not been immune from rising prices for food and medical care, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting in the new year, and Sandy Villere, co-manager of the Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Nigam Arora, editor of The Arora Report says that there's a disconnect between the messages being sent by market and economic fundamentals and technicals, with the technical indicators turning bullish despite longer-term economic data sending bearish signs. As a result, Arora says investors should expect significant volatility and should put more money into the short-term technicals to take advantage of the back-and-forth even as they become more conservative in their long-term investments. Michele Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge.com, echoed Arora's take on improving technicals, noting that until something changes in those indicators, 'We rally to resistance.' Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's research into the record percentage of Americans who say they can't afford to pay a $1,000 emergency bill without going into debt. In the Market Call, Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer at the Jacob Funds talks about early-stage, high-growth investing in technology and small-cap stocks.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the market is likely to close the month having achieved the 'January trifecta,' which is a Santa Claus rally (over the last five trading days of the old year and first two of the new), plus a positive January barometer -- where January's results set a trend for the year -- and then the 'first five days early warning system,' which holds that if the first five trading days of the year are up the full year's results have been positive more than 80 percent of the time. With two of those three indicators set and the third likely to be confirmed when the month ends tomorrow, Hirsch notes that his firm has upped its 2023 outlook to a 'best case scenario' for above-average pre-election year gains of 15 to 20 percent. If there's a surprise, Hirsch says, it is that the projection would be too low. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2022 'Planning and Progress Study,' which shows that Generation Z has big hopes for retiring younger than its older cohorts, a notion that will be tough to pull off; David Trainer of New Constructs puts Opendoor in the Danger Zone, noting that its a zombie stock that could run out of money before the end of the summer, and author Mark Miller chats about his latest book, Retirement Reboot, and how savings strapped pre-retirees can regain control of their financial future.

Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says that while the headlines and fundamentals are making investors nervous, there has been a shift to the positive in technical market measures, which he believes are starting to show signs of a market bottom and turn that has him bullish on the potential for a good year. Samuelson lays out a number of different technical reasons for optimism and says they turned quickly in the fall and early winter noting, for example, that 81 percent of global indices are now above their 200-day, long-term trend -- versus only 10 percent in October -- which shows that this 'has a lot of the underpinnings of the cusp of a new bull market.' In The Big Interview, Scott Lynn, founder and chief executive at Masterworks -- which created a marketplace for shares in works of art -- discusses the fine-art market, how it weathered the storm of the market's downturn in 2022 and why investors might turn to it for diversification now. Plus, Eric Purington of the abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund says in The NAVigator segment that private infrastructure investments -- and particularly middle-market opportunities, which have been being snapped up by larger operators -- offer a path to stability, diversification and enhanced returns now. And in the Market Call, hedge-fund manager Mina Tadrus, chief executive at Tadrus Capital discusses quantitative, risk-measured investing in exchange-traded funds.

Phillip Wool, head of research for Rayliant Global Advisors, says that investors who expect the U.S. economy to weaken or to suffer the effects of inflation for longer will find that emerging markets are more compelling than domestic markets in 2023, and he finds China particularly interesting as it pivots to a growth stance coming out of a Covid lockdown and reversing insular policies of the last few years. In a wide ranging Big Interview segment, Wool talks about how he is worried that private investments -- both equity and credit -- are headed for liquidity problems that could hamstring investors who are not expecting the whipsaw that comes when hard-to-value securities must be sold into a down market to meet redemption demand. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi celebrates 'the granddaddy' of exchange-traded funds with his ETF of the Week, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's annual survey of checking-account fees, and Jim Cullen, chief executive officer at Schaefer Cullen Capital Management -- appearing in the Market Call for the first time -- talks small cap stocks and long-term value investing.

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that he expects a modest slowdown and mild recession that is short-lived and shallow, and that the economy will show resilience in rebounding from that, but he notes that the following recovery will be equally mild and modest. Also on the show, Emily Brandon talks about a U.S. News and World Report survey showing that consumers are cutting back on retirement savings in the face of inflation and day-to-day cost-of-living increases, Megan Moncrief of travel insurance portal Squaremouth discusses how travellers can protect themselves against potential pilot strikes and events like the recent Southwest Airlines breakdown, and David Wagner, portfolio manager for Aptus Capital Advisors and the Aptus actively managed exchange-traded funds covers stocks in the Market Call.

Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says the economy is going through a series of rotating, mini-recessions affecting certain industries, which will lead to a modest recession in the middle of the year, but once but that happens he expects interest rates to start falling, inflation to keep slowing and the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle, he expects price/earnings multiples to expand which should help markets go higher. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, is equally optimistic in the Talking Technicals segment, saying he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 Index to end the year up more than 15 percent near 4,500, with technical indicators suggesting to him that the worst is over and that the market bottomed out in October of 2022. In The Market Call, Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, discusses altering ETF portfolios to reflect coming changes in inflation, interest rates and more.

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire, says he is tilting portfolios away from value and toward growth because investors have been willing to pay up for growth at times when there is no growth. As a result, with an economic slowdown being almost certain, Pursche is repositioning to take advantage of where the money is likely to go; he also sees opportunity in fixed-income and in the alternative income space, noting that yields have come up enough to be worth considering. Pursche notes in the Market Call, that despite the anticipated domestic slowdown, he is not turning to international investing right now. Also on the show, numismatics expert Bret Leifer talks about the market for collectible coins and whether it's performed in line with precious metals as inflation has returned in ways not seen in decades, Matt Brannon discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that retirees saw their life savings decline by 10 percent in 2022 due to a mix of market losses and increased spending costs caused by inflation and, in The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs singles out a popular mutual fund that carries a five-star rating from Morningstar which he says actually has 57 percent of its assets in stocks that are unattractive or downright ugly.

David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- the president, Sierra Alpha Research -- says that until the stock market can get above its long-term trend line and show fundamental strength, investors may want to question how good things are really getting. Keller notes that there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but 'the proof is in the price,' and he will stay skeptical until the major benchmarks follow through on major barometers. Keller notes that the 3,800 level on the Standard and Poor's 500 is a key level to watch, as if the index drops below that level -- the low from December -- it could unleash some negative probabilities that investors may want to plan for. In The Big Interview, Paul Espinosa, lead manager of the top-rated Seafarer Overseas Value Fund, discusses why international markets and especially emerging markets are priced right for a rally, even as they digest issues ranging from war to inflation and more. The NAVigator segment features Nate Jones of closed-end fund powerhouse Nuveen talking about how the upward-sloping yield curve for municipal bonds is creating opportunities in the sector, and Randy Baron, lead portfolio manager for international and global investing at Pinnacle Associates, talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call.

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says he believes what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been saying about keeping the Fed funds rate elevated for longer, and if the central bank indeed pursues that strategy, the probability of a recession is high towards the end of the year or early in 2024. Mullaney says that for the first time in six years he is looking at increasing bond exposure to help get through what he expects to be a rough year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, looks at trends on the rise in emerging markets for his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses some alarming trends in consumer credit, and Rob Lutts, president/chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management goes looking for good ideas among stocks in the Market Call.

Axel Merk who is president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says that while there are signs that the economy is improving, we're 'not out of the woods yet,' and the Federal Reserve 'can't declare victory.' Still, he thinks the central bank will get into wait-and-see mode after two more interest-rate hikes, noting that there may not be a trend reversal this year but that just stopping the hikes should be seen by investors as a good sign. Also on the show, Julie Ramhold, consumer analyst at DealNews.com, tells Chuck -- and you -- how to get a better bargain, or at least a better fit, if you are shopping for gym memberships now that the busy holiday period has ended and, in the Market Call, Mike Cerasoli, portfolio manager for the TrueShares Eagle Global Renewable Energy Income ETF gives his take on the energy market now.

Elliott Gue, editor of the Energy and Income Advisor newsletter, says in today's Money Life Market Call that even after the good year that energy stocks had in 2022, the sector has just started its first steps into a 'multi-year super cycle' driven by supply shortages caused by a lack of investment capital put into the sector over the last eight to 10 years. Gue says he expects 'significant outperformance from energy stocks versus the broader market,' continuing the results from 2022 for years to come. In The Big Interview, Giorgio Caputo, senior fund manager and head of multi-asset strategies at J.O. Hambro Capital Management, is worried about how central banks and markets will respond to rising commodity prices, which could lead to the return of six-dollar gas prices later this year; Caputo says that he is mindful of the risks facing long-duration assets if there is indeed another bout of inflation. That condition also would be a headwind for growth stocks, technology companies, utilities, bond-like equities and more. Also on the show, Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, discusses a recent survey of corporate chief executives whose biggest worry for the year ahead is recession.

Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says that the key disagreement in the market right now -- the one that it struggles to price in -- is when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates and start cutting rates. Until there is some clarity there, the market will continue to struggle, and investors should be eyeing earnings season to see what it says for the strength of the economy and what it signals about a potential recession. Jeffrey Bierman, founder of TheQuantGuy.com, says that he expects the next set of economic data to sound a downbeat note that will turn the market from a soft rally toward six months of trouble that will end in the fourth quarter with a rally. And Axel Merk, chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, says that the market is pricing in a recession already, but that assumes the Fed will get its moves right; he says there could be significant volatility if the central bank struggles to achieve its goals, and notes that gold is being embraced now because it tends to lead into recessionary times. Plus, in the Market Call, David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks growth stocks in a low-growth environment.

Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist at Putnam Investments, expects a recession that impacts corporate earnings more than it does Main Street, though the downturn he foresees is not immediate. Vaillancourt expects the market to be messy, even though he does not think the market will make new lows much beyond the worst of 2022, but he thinks the market will suffer due to the pressure on corporate earnings. Vaillancourt likes international markets right now, notes that there is a wide dispersion of earnings but the conditions in Europe are relatively cheap compared to the United States. The ETF of the Week features Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi discussing the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income fund, which Chuck bought after it was discussed in the segment a few years ago, but which he sold recently during tax-loss harvesting season. And in the Market Call, Jason Browne, president at Alexis Investment Partners and manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF says that international funds are looking good to him for the first time in decades, but notes that he also sees opportunities in domestic markets as they bounce back from 2022's down year.

Veteran money manager Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments has been making 10 forecasts for every new year since the 1990s and he unveiled his 10 predictions for 2023 today, calling for a shallow recession that is followed by an equally shallow recovery before year's end. Doll says inflation will fall by a good amount but not get near the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2 percent, which leaves the market caught in the middle hoping that the central bank will change its policies to appease the market. He doesn't think the Fed will back off, especially when it comes to moving interest rates up to 5.5 percent, where he thinks they will remain into 2024. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the mixed bag of results from the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn talks about investing in stocks while reacting to the news in the Money Life Market Call.

Patrick Luce, economist at ITR Economics says that the slowing cycle the economy will be going through this year will result in a hard landing late this year and into 2024. Luce still sees the consumer being in good shape to help power the economy along, which is why he expects the recession to be mild and reminiscent of the mid-1990s. Still after a recovery that will run most of the second half of this decade, Luce says the market is headed for real trouble -- another Great Depression -- in the 2030s. Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com offers some short and intermediate optimism, noting that the first week of the year tends to portend the action for the entire year and 2023 got off to an optimistic start. Zanger sees the best current opportunities in international stocks, particularly some big-name companies in China. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about taking an annuity or a lump-sum as they leave behind an employer who offered them a pension settlement, and Abby Davisson, co-author of 'Money and Love: An Intelligent Roadmap for Life's Biggest Decisions' joins Chuck for The Book Interview.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, says the end of the overheating economy is drawing near, which is why the economy will continue softening early this year, setting up a rebound once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates which he expects to happen in the fall. Adams expects the Federal Reserve to have two more rate increases over the next two months, driving down economic activity as a result, ultimately delivering the drop in inflation that the Fed is aiming for. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, discusses investors sentiment and which investment strategies held up best for individuals during the downturn of 2022, Silvio Tavares, President and CEO at VantageScore talks about the average American's credit score and how it is trending now that inflation and interest rates are running at their hottest levels in decades and, in the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer of New Constructs explains why pet-supply retailer Chewy is a barking dog of a stock right now.

Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes the stock market could drop by as much as 25 percent this year before rebounding late, saying that stocks could end the year down 10 percent, although with positive surprises they could find a way to finish the year in the black, maybe even by double-digits. That surprise would depend on how quickly the market processes the turn in the economy, which he sees as transitioning toward better times with the worst of the high inflation/rate-hiking cycle now in the past. Cheryl Pate, senior portfolio manager for Angel Oak Capital, also talks about the economy, noting that it's late in the cycle for rate hikes, but still early in the cycle for profit expansion amongst banks and financial-services companies, which historically benefit from high-rate markets. Also on the show, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the ATAC Funds talks about how 2022 was an 'outlier' year statistically, and what that means for investors looking for guidance from technicals on when to favor stocks or bonds moving forward.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrte.com, says he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a full percentage point but to then hold the line for the rest of the year once that hike is in place. McBride was careful to note that he does not expect the Fed to backtrack and start cutting rates at all this year, even as it sees inflation start to ease. That environment -- higher rates but declining inflation -- will create opportunities for savers using high-yield banking instruments. Also on the show, legendary money manager Ralph wanger -- a small-cap ace who ran the Acorn Fund for more than 30 years -- notes that 'Bear markets exist to destroy the stupidities of the previous bull market' and talks about how the current market is in the process of unwinding those excesses. Plus, Tom Lydon of VettaFi goes international with a trending pick as his ETF of the Week, and portfolio manager Andrery Kutuzov of Seven Canyons Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he expects 2023 to be when inflation and interest rates start coming down, which will not be comfortable to digest but he says he expects the stock market to get through it and finish the year higher, overcoming a brief mid-year recession -- and possibly giving up some late 2022 gains as a volatile market bottoms out -- to register a 'better than sub-par year.' Also on the show, Joe Wiggins, author of 'The Intelligent Fund Investor: Practical Steps for Better Results in Active and Passive Funds' and, in the Market Call, Noland Langford of Left Brain Wealth Management talks about where he is finding growth and how corporate bonds have a chance to replace fast-growing companies as a safer, more reasonable way to navigate current market conditions, at least until the market can navigate the current rate and inflation environment.

Rob Arnott, chairman and chief executive officer at Research Affiliates, says that the Federal Reserve has made 'a series of mistakes' that he expects to continue with a pivot away from rate hikes that occurs too late to stop a recession. Still, Arnott believes that slowdown is already priced into the market, meaning that the worst of the bear market -- except for any last capitulation meltdown -- is behind us. Still, Arnott is not ready to invest much in domestic equities now, noting that he'd favor international and emerging markets stocks because they're better values and those markets seem to have already passed the 'peak fear' point that makes them more attractive than a U.S. market that's not quite there yet. Arnott also notes that value stocks are 'in their cheapest quintile in history,' making them a place for investors to turn once the market reaches the full-on buying stage again later this year. Also on the show, in the Market Call, Mark Travis, manager of the Intrepid Capital Funds, discusses the benefits of investing in companies that make beer, shoes and underwear.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments says that 2022 was harder than anyone anticipated for investors and markets, in large measure because the stock and bond markets came into the year 'ridiculously expensive.' The market's decline has brought valuations down, but Doll considers both stocks and bonds to be 'in no-man's land' now, better than they were a year ago but not yet attractive. Doll reviews his 10 forecasts made for 2022 and how the year turned out; he'll return to the show in early January with his predictions for the year ahead. Meanwhile, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors makes his forecasts for the closed-end fund business in 2023 today, and his top sector bets for the new year are some of 2022's weakest areas, most notably real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real assets. He also expects international bonds and more to be in the sweet spot, and suggested that investors tilt equity portfolios toward value, dividend and international funds. Plus, Chuck puts a bow on the year with a commentary on the day his daughter is getting married.

John Bonnanzio, editor at Fidelity Monitor and Insight, says that the economy keeps chugging along, and that the data suggests that the economy can avoid recession and the Federal Reserve can deliver a soft landing. Speaking in the Market Call segment, Bonnanzio says he is making gradual shifts to portfolios, moving away gradually from large-cap stocks and technology companies and moving towards value stocks including the ones that are economically sensitive that he thinks could be poised to rebound if his recession/soft landing call comes to fruition. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi makes the iShares MSCI Turkey fund his pick for ETF of the week, noting that its the best-performing non-leveraged ETF out there for 2022, but that's no reason to think you want to jump in now, after the big gain and with so many other emerging markets and other parts of the world also presenting good values now. Plus, Chuck talks about some financial chores you can resolve, plan for or make your goals as you look ahead into the New Year.

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group foresees 'the best buying opportunity in the global stock market for at least a decade' to come into view after the market goes through a recession and some pain in the first half of 2023. He believes that valuations will reflect the economic ills first, saying investors should be prepared for 'significant further losses' of as much as 25 percent before the market reaches the purchasing point. Talking technical analysis, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders certainly agrees with the assessment that trouble is coming, but he believes the downturn will take root and that any recovery -- at least anything occurring in the new year -- is likely to be lackluster. Plus, Chuck interviews Rob Wells, author of 'The Insider: How the Kiplinger Newsletter Bridged Washington and Wall Street.'

Patrick O'Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, dislikes the cliche of a 'stockpicker's market' but he says the proverbial shoe fits for the year ahead, because while the overall tenor of the market has been muted and the economy has been bordering on recession, there are industry-leading stocks with solid balance sheets and profits and nice dividends that investors can build a portfolio around. O'Hare says the first half of the year will be challenging until inflation is under better control, and that the entirety of 2023 could be a struggle if the Federal Reserve and the markets don't get on the same page fairly soon; as a result, investors will want to look at income-production and safe havens in stocks and bonds to ride it out to better times. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discusses the uncertainties, worries and concerns that a majority of consumers have entering the new year, noting that this may be the worst year he's ever seen in terms of how shaky consumers and investors are at the turn of the calendar, plus Brian Shephardson, portfolio manager of the James Advantage Funds, talks value-oriented investing in the Market Call.

Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Portfolio Solutions, says that persistent inflation -- for longer than most observers are expecting -- is going to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish for longer, which investors will have to adjust to by diversifying away from the mega-cap stocks that have been a particular drag on portfolios this year. He suggests that investors look to small-cap stocks, non-US issues plus real assets and value investments to smooth out the ride in the year ahead. In The NAVigator segment, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance looks back at 2022 for the closed-end fund industry and reviews his forecasts, most notably how his basket of five funds for the year came out ahead of the market and poised to rebound in the new year. Plus, University of Toronto professor Opher Baron discusses how retailers are changing return policies in response to consumer habits and global supply-chain issues -- saying that consumers must pay more attention than ever to how stores handle returns -- and forensic accountant Tracy Coenen -- author of 'The Marriage Money Guide (for Women)' -- discusses financial fidelity and how couples can keep their finances on the level so that money doesn't make them lose their minds.