Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says that investors should be looking for ways to play a slowing economy and a light recession, and she says that international stocks are likely to outperform U.S. stocks while that plays out. She also is adding to domestic fixed-income exposure with both Treasuries and high-yield corporates, noting that the latter is an asset class she would not have touched as recently as last year. The show also debuts a new regular feature called 'Find Me the Money,' featuring forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talking all about the importance of honest family conversations and disclosures about money. Plus, Matt Brannon discusses a recent Clever Real Estate survey on how Americans are feeling and handling financial stress, and Chuck answers a question about the new Apple savings account, the technology giant's latest foray into the financial world.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Traders' Almanac, discusses 'calendar effects' -- the traditional 'Sell in May and go away; buy in October to get yourself sober' strategy that may not kick in this year until as late as June, but which should involve avoiding the worst of the year and a lot of market softness but no recession. Hirsch notes that since World War II the market has made most of its gains between October and April and this year is no exception, which will leave the market looking at a squishy, back-and-forth summer before things pick up again near the end of the year. Also on the show, Liz Weston of NerdWallet discusses how people can and should consider Social Security in ways that will maximize their payouts, delivering the best long-term impacts of the program; David Trainer of New Constructs puts First Solar -- a stock that's a darling of ESG funds -- into the Danger Zone, anticipating an earnings miss, and Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses the site's latest survey showing what happens when parents give children access to their credit and debit cards.

Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says that the economy is headed for a mild recession likely to hit home during the second half of 2023, but she notes that last year's big drop in the stock market did a lot of work to the downside, and while the market's hot start to this year means there is room for more back-sliding, she thinks those declines are mostly buying opportunities for the recovery that will follow the recession. Mahajan isn't expecting a blockbuster bounce-back, but says that recoveries tend to be at least as long and strong as the downturns they follow. Also on the show, Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, discusses the municipal bond market thus far in 2023 -- when it has been swinging wildly around headlines and macro changes -- and says investors need to drill down to look at individual issuers to deal better with the mixed signals the market is sending. In the Market Call, Clark Kendall, chief executive officer at Kendall Capital Management, talks stocks.

Harin De Silva, manager of the Allspring U.S. Long/Short Equity, says that there are a lot of companies 'priced for perfection in a slowing economy in a slowing global business cycle,' creating a big opportunity for investors who are shorting stocks, betting that they will fall in price. De Silva says that the long side of his job -- finding stocks to buy -- is challenging, and he notes that his biggest concerns right now are wildcard risks like the banking crisis, war and more. De Silva expects the situation to return to more normal times -- favoring the buys and moving away from the shorts -- by the fall. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a big, brand-name fund full of giant brand-name stocks his ETF of the Week, financial adviser Robert Levitt talks about how Americans may find that their retirement savings lasts longer abroad, but notes that there are challenges to making the move, and Chuck discusses what Wednesday's inflation news does for the future attractiveness of inflation-protected U.S. savings bonds.

Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that the stock market is close to its fair value right now, but that 'the expensive industries the way we measure value are leading and the bargains are lagging and very sluggish,' a situation that is unsustainable and that will lead to volatile, choppy, sideways markets for the next few months. Callahan says he is holding more cash than normal but he expects to be fully invested by the fall of 2023, when he expects the market to be 5 to 7 percent higher than it is today. Also on the show, Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp., discusses the 'golden handcuffs' that the rapid increase in mortgage rates have put on many long-time homeowners, locking them into their properties and altering the housing market's prospects in ways typically overlooked by buyers and sellers, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's recent survey showing that a majority of Americans are considering job changes despite of or because of current economic uncertainties, and Chuck answers a listener question on how the government's debt-ceiling problems could affect investors in ultra-safe money-market funds.

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says there are 'so many different headwinds' facing the market that 'we feel we're not quite through this yet.' He says that macro-level indicators are suggesting that the market will either re-test prior lows or set new ones, noting that current conditions suggest that there are enough positive indicators that investors should 'sit on your hands' and stand pat while watching the technicals play out. Also on the show, Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors and publisher of the Forbes/Fridson Income Securities Investor newsletter, says that 'the very rapid, most aggressive tightening of of rates that we have seen in a number of decades is behind us,' and that the bond market is 'more normal' than it has been in years, even as pockets like junk bonds and others are still a big concern for investors. In the Market Call, Gerry Frigon, chief investment officer at Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about buying growth stocks in a slow/no-growth environment.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says the market's wild swings after its hot start are the kind of action investors will have to put up with until the market sees inflation start to give way and confidence grows that the Federal reserve has made real progress. That said, he expects a recession this year but notes that the economy is lacking the conditions that typically make a downturn deep and protracted so he believes it will be mild and brief before a recovery starts. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, president at Closed-End Fund Advisors, discusses private equity and debt in closed-end funds as a way of diversifying yield and risk in portfolios now, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts another electric vehicle firm onto the list of 'zombie stocks' in The Danger Zone, and Bill Davis of Stance Capital and the Stance Equity ESG Large Cap Core ETF talks stocks in The Market Call.

Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. says investors should minimize portfolio moves — mostly to place a slightly greater emphasis on bonds — as they won't be waiting long to see a mild recession lead to a reasonably robust recovery. Schutte expects small-cap companies and international investments to be among the leading group, with large stocks suffering during the decline Also on the show, Tom Rieman, head of wealth solutions at J.D. Power, discusses the firm's look at how investors are largely dissatisfied with their current financial advisers after struggling through 2022, and Tom Lydon from VettaFi makes a fund with an entrepreneurial focus his ETF of the Week

Alan Gayle, president of ViaNova Investment Management, says that positive economic fundamentals are being tempered and offset by higher inflation and interest rates, giving investors a laundry list of concerns over growth and the stock market, but he notes that the bond market is looking more like its old self than it has in years, giving investors asset allocation choices that will help them ride out the brewing economic storm. Also on the show, Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, discusses why gold has been on the upswing despite not effectively playing its traditional role as an inflation hedge over the last few years, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com covers a survey showing that consumers aren't effectively using credit card rewards, and Chuck talks about how now is a time when investors may want to focus on 'active holding' rather than buying or selling securities.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says a mild recession is coming, and he is diversifying internationally as part of his moves to deal with it, noting that international markets not only have valuation advantages against their U.S. counterparts, but as a currency play, noting that a rally in the yen or the Euro would create a tailwind for investors. In The Book Interview, Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist of The Oxford Club and author of 'Get Rich With Dividends' -- the new third edition was released today -- talks about dividend strategies in a rising-rate environment. Plus, Chuck takes a contentious listener question about laddered portfolios now, and Sam Huisache of Clever Real Estate talks about the alarming rate of inflation in home prices compared to the higher prices consumers are paying on everything else.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says he is doubtful that the market's current rally can go on for too much longer, and when he sees profit levels decline it will be time to lighten up on equities and buckle up for a recession and downturn. In The Big Interview, he says the firm is diversifying and nimble, with real assets, TIPs and other fixed-income securities providing ballast to a portfolio that includes a lot of international exposure to balance out domestic equities. Greg McBride, chief financial strategist at BankRate.com discusses the firm's recent survey showing that online savings accounts have become much more attractive, but investors and savers aren't using them despite their improved payouts, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Carrier Global Corp. -- with highly overstated street earnings -- in the Danger Zone, and Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments talks about 'Warren Buffett style value investing in The Market Call.

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says that 'people are way underallocated,' nervously sitting in cash and Treasuries while waiting for market troubles to play out, but when those investors get FOMO -- a fear of missing out -- and the money starts flowing back into investments, it will lift both the stock and bond markets. DeGarner expects a big comeback in 60-40 portfolios this year and says that several commodities markets are now trading at levels that present a good opportunity for investors to get back in, in turn spurring the FOMO of investors to help the rally pick up speed. In The Big Interview, Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, notes that the year has been a surprise due to the banking crisis and other problems that didn't stop the NASDAQ from having its best quarter in years, and he expects the market to digest problems and get healthier over the next six months. In The NAVigator segment, Cheryl Pate of the Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term Trust discusses the nation's banking concerns but notes that in those pains she sees 'a once-in-a-decade opportunity for the banking space.' And in the Market Call, Ken Laudan, manager of the Buffalo Large-Cap Growth fund, talks high-quality, defensive investing now.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says the current troubles with the banking industry and the market's struggles with inflation are setting the stage for a new cycle, noting that if inflation comes down and the Fed backs away from its stance it typically will improve conditions for investors. Levitt notes that investors are wondering whether the current situation looks like the 1990s -- when a downturn represented a great opportunity -- or like the 2008 financial crisis, where recovery took much longer, noting that he doesn't see conditions looking like they will result in the protracted, painful downturn. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, plays the uptrend in cryptocurrency with his pick for the ETF of the Week, and Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management, talks about finding growth at a reasonable price -- and what constitutes 'reasonable' -- in the Money Life Market Call.www.invesco.com/us

Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says that while headlines are driving investors to distraction, the stock market right now is neither too hot nor too cold. Other than regional banks, he says there's no blood in the streets, the market 'isn't screaming cheap or hugely overvalued either,' making this a time for investors to grind it out and work on their holding, rather than buying or selling. 'The key,' he says, 'is not in picking the next calamity, but avoiding the crazy nonsense.' Sarah Foster discusses her recent story on Bankrate.com on how inflation is damaging the finances of younger generations and how that has the potential to damage the economy as Gen Z and millennials adjust their spending and savings habits. And, in the Market Call, Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors looks at the macro picture and talks about which exchange-traded funds can take advantage of the current opportunities.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, expects a modest recession where investors can benefit from riding it out with a greater exposure to fixed income and a more-balanced portfolio, but he also notes that there are plenty of worrisome wildcards that could impact the market and economy. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market is going through 'a bottoming process,' but needs more confirmation that a new uptrend has developed before shifting from a current-defensive stance to something more aggressive; he is looking for better performance from growth stocks moving forward, noting that they typically thrive about six months after a rate-hike cycle peaks. Plus, in The Book Interview, author Liz Hoffman tells tales of pandemic perseverance and recovery as detailed in 'Crash Landing: The Inside Story of How the World's Biggest Companies Survived an Economy on the Brink.'

Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the last 15 months have shown a persistent lack of bullish sentiment, with roughly 20 of the 70 lowest readings ever for optimism in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey, a weekly poll that dates back to 1987. Likewise, bearishness has been near record levels consistently. Rotblut notes that the survey did not show this kind of consistent high-pessimism/low-bullishness sentiment during the global financial crisis, the dot-com bust, the Gulf War and more. Also on the show, Mervin Jebaraj discusses the National Association for Business Economics study released today showing that more than 70 percent of economists believe the Federal Reserve will not be able to get headline inflation numbers to or below 4 percent this year. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs, singles out MGM Resorts International as the stock with the most overstated street estimates, and discusses how that is likely to translate into continued deeper declines, and Gary Bradshaw od the Hodges Funds talks about blue-chip stocks and growth stories in the current market during the Money Life Market Call.

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that the market is just starting a whole lot of market pain that will continue into 2026 before reaching a real bottom and the start of another long-term buying opportunity. McClellan says there will be great trading opportunities within the downturn -- including the month of April -- but emphasized that the economy has a lot to digest before real recovery begins. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects a recession to begin in the second or third quarter of 2023, but says the decline is likely to be shallow, extending for six to 12 months depending on how the Federal Reserve responds to it. For investors looking to deal with those issues, Steve O'Neill, from RiverNorth says in The NAVigator segment that municipal bond closed-end funds are 'in the 99th percentile of cheapness,' making them a good relative bargain for investors willing to ride out the current storm. And in the Market Call, Allen Bond, head of research at Jensen Investment Management, discusses high-quality businesses at reasonable prices.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says that the Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it still needs to fight to get the Fed Funds rate above the rate of inflation to put the brakes on the economy, and while the Fed seemed to hint that it would only hike rates one more time this year, it's entirely possible that there will be more increases. What there won't be are rate cuts; McBride sizes up what it all means for consumers in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, turns to a popular and trending gold fund as an inflation/banking alternative with his 'ETF of the Week' and, in the Market Call, Brian Bollinger, president at Simply Safe Dividends talks about 'dividend safety scores' and finding appropriate income levels given rising rates and inflation.

Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, says that the financial concerns springing from the current bank concerns are building a currency and economic crises for the rest of the world, noting that the situation has changed interest-rate expectations for central banks around the globe. He expects the Federal Reserve to follow the path set by the ECB -- Europe's central bank -- moderating expectations and hinting at rate cuts starting late this year, triggering significant market volatility as investors respond to the news. Also on the show, Stan Haithcock — Stan the Annuity Man - returns to help Chuck answer a listener's question about dollar-cost averaging into annuity products, Chuck discusses stock-picking gone wrong and Jim Cramer in today's wild markets, and Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at Nixon Peabody Trust Co., talks stocks, funds and ETFs in the Money Life Market Call.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the stock market's current issues around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others has investors revisiting their feelings and emotions from the financial crisis of 2008. This '2008-itis' is leading them to act scared at a time when they should instead be doing a temperature check to decide if their asset allocation is appropriate for what lies ahead, which Janasiewicz sees as a mild recession later this year. In the Market Call, however, Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor say that he expects a deeper downturn and recession as the economy struggles for inflation significantly longer than most people have expected. Conrad says dividend-paying stocks can help investors ride out the turmoil, provided they are consistent and acquired at the right price. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest survey from Bankrate.com on how taxpayers are reacting and responding to current conditions as they plan ahead for refunds, and Ed Slott, founder of IRAhelp.com, helps Chuck answer a listener's question about whether convert all of their retirement assets into Roth accounts.

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says he expects the stock market to end up in a 'flattish trading range for 10 years, similar from 2000 to 2012,' but makes it clear that outcome is not going to be the fallout of current events in the banking industry but rather is the result of long-standing economic trends. Katie Reichart, director of equity strategies manager research at Morningstar, goes 'Off The News' discussing the impact that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has had on some mutual funds and how investors should react if their funds produce surprising results based on bad calls in the sector. Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a badly categorized 'mid-cap growth fund' into The Danger Zone and, in the Market Call, Salem Abraham, founder of Abraham Trading Company and manager of the Abraham Fortress Fund, talks about managing risk while picking stock.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that the problem at the heart of the current banking crisis is the speed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, noting that it was nearly impossible for bankers to adjust their portfolios to absorb bond losses driven by those higher rates. Now, Doty says, the Fed may need to take steps to help inject liquidity back into the market -- even if that stops the progress made on inflation -- to give institutions a breather and stabilize the banking system. In the Big Interview, economist Lawrence Kotlikoff of MaxiFi.com says the current situation has the potential to develop into a full-blown, long-remembered crisis, and discusses what can be done to stop it from getting that far. In the Market Call, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi talks about investing in exchange-traded funds.

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus-Mellon, says that for all of the concerns investors have about the economy -- fears that have been heightened due to headlines about bank collapses -- economic activity remains strong and is likely to stay that way for much of the time the Federal Reserve is trying to curb inflation. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a banking fund that has been buffeted by current events as an exemplar for trend-following with his ETF of the Week, Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital -- which recently opened funds based on the picks of Jim Cramer -- discusses the pundit's call on Silicon Valley Bank, and Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com answers a listener's question.

Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says that the market has overreacted to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, pricing in the start of Federal Reserve rate cuts -- rather than the hikes it had been expecting -- as if the problems with the troubled bank was systemic and likely to take down a lot of institutions. While acknowledging that the situation muddies the outlook, Weisman says that he doesn't think history will remember the bank's collapse as the thing 'that precipitated the end of this expansion, the end of this tightening cycle and the next crisis.' Also on the show, Nick Nefouse, global head of multi-asset retirement solutions at BlackRock discusses how the changing economic environment and rising yields are impacting target-date and life-cycle strategies, and Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com answers a listener's question about the pros and cons of accepting a credit-limit increase. Plus, Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners talks stock investing in the Market Call.

Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, says that investors should expect lower long-term returns over the next decade, with buy-and-hold strategies struggling more than in the past, with the change largely caused by shortened cycles in various sectors of the market that force investors to be more selective and to tilt portfolios based more on the shifts driven by economic activity. Lloyd says while he believes value investing will carry the day, his primary focus is on quality at a reasonable price. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for BankRate.com discusses the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Plus, Matt Zajechowski discusses a Forbes Advisor study showing which subscriptions Americans will keep and cut as they react to inflation this year, and portfolio manager Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management looks at stocks with consistent earnings in the Money Life Market Call.

Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, says the outlook for the economy is 'very, very challenging for 2023,' but the economic numbers are strong enough to keep momentum rolling but slowing for much of the year. She says the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 'above 50 percent, and significantly so,' but the timing of when that happens depends mostly on the actions of the Federal Reserve, noting that if the Fed resumes larger rate hikes, it likely draws forward the recession and makes it happen sooner, while keeping hikes lower will push the downturn back into next year. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Sweetgreen -- which he put into the Danger Zone before it went through its initial public offering in 2021 -- onto his list of 'zombie stocks,' and Max Wasserman of Miramar Capital talks about income-producing stocks in the Market Call.

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that most of the damage to the stock market caused by rising interest rates has been done, and that downside risk to valuations has been priced in, leaving the market in a situation where 'We don't need to have a lot of good news to end up with a good year.' McMillan expects the market to end the year on a positive note, although he expects the story to be high volatility throughout as investors digest interest rate and inflation news. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, checks in on business-development companies as they complete their earnings season and after a harrowing day on the market on Thursday. Emily Thornton discusses the 2023 Tax Procrastinators Report from IPX1031, showing that at least one in three Americans has reason to put off getting their taxes done this year. In the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser talks about Vanguard funds and ETFs.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research -- best known for his book on following the Fed to investment success -- says that investors are terrified that the Federal Reserve will overshoot on its strategy and throw the economy into a deep recession, but they have largely discounted the central bank's recent and current actions while they wait to see whether Chairman Jerome Powell decide just when a pivot can occur that drops interest rates and pushes inflation lower. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a 200-day moving-average play on a single-country fund covering a surprising market, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses a recent survey showing how many credit-card users are missing out on potential savings from balance-transfer offers and, in the Market Call, Chase Investment Counsel CEO Peter Tuz -- co-manager of the Chase Growth Fund -- talks about finding growth stocks at reasonable prices in a market that is struggling with today's headline risks.

James Choi, a professor of finance at Yale University, discusses his recent study on 'Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors' -- which examines the recommendations of personalities like Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey compared to the standards of economists - -and discusses how the standard advice of saving 10 percent (or as much as possible) of your income from the beginnings of your working life leads to more times of struggle and no less in assets come retirement compared to smoothing savings out more proportionately against income over a lifetime spent saving, earning and spending. Also on the show, Jeremy Pagan, equity research analyst at Morningstar discusses his recent analysis on the pros and cons of investing in REITs versus putting money directly into real estate in a rising-rate environment and, in the Market Call, Chris Natividad, chief investment officer at Equbot -- which runs the AI Powered Equity ETF -- talks about using artificial intelligence as a means of picking stocks.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments says that the market has rallied this year on the hopes of a pivot from the FederalReserve, but the strong economic results have pushed the prospect of a Fed change in policy have moved farther out. Now, he says, the market is looking at 'an inflection point for earnings,' and he notes that current conditions have historically lead to a recession, which he sees as coming next year though he acknowledges it may not be a deep, long recession. Senitra horbrook, credit cards editor at ThePointsGuy.com talks about how rewards and loyalty programs are facing inflation the same way as the rest of the economy, and how consumers should respond to those changes. Plus Stan Haitchcock -- best known as 'Stan the Annuity Man' -- talks about how savers should be looking at annuities in a rising rate, high-inflation environment.

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market has never bottomed before the start of a recession, so if the current downturn doesn't rise to that level yet but you think it will, then the bottom has not been reached. The market, historically, peaks about six months before a recession, and it appears to be climbing to that peak and perhaps holding it longer than normal. It mean, he said, that there is likely a rally that ends in trouble later this year. Meanwhile, Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says that the market has been in a trendless environment for months, failing to reach higher highs or lower lows to signal either an uptrend or downtrend; he sees continued opportunities in individual stocks even as the market moves sideways until it sorts things out. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs discusses a stock that looks good until you read the footnotes of its quarterly earnings filing carefully, but also highlights a stock investors might want to buy after reading its quarterly notes, and tax expert Ed Slott of IRAHelp.com talks about how changes to the tax code and also changing stock market conditions are impacting the tax-planning moves investors might want to make now.

Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says investors have good reason to be defensive right now because while he sees strong potential for the market to make new highs in the next six months to the end of the year, only to then embark on a deep bear market. He says 'you have to approach this market by being bullish and bearish at the same time.' In The NAVigator segment, Jay Rhame, chief executive officer at Reaves Asset Management -- president of the Reaves Utility Income Fund says that the dividend-growth potential for utility companies makes them a viable investment option despite today's high interest-rate, high inflation conditions which typically are bad for the sector. Also on the show, Sam Huisache discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that 75 percent of Americans who move have regrets about the changes they've made, and Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks in the Market Call.

John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that the stock market has come back around to a good time for investors to buy the dips, largely because the market's decline last year did 'so much of the heavy lifting' to put stocks in a better buying position. While Petrides expects continued earnings contraction, he says 'We're probably closer to the bottom than we were at this time last year.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi picks a precious metals fund for a 200-day moving average play on current conditions, Meagan Dow, senior strategist at Edward Jones discusses the firm's recent survey showing that Americans are prioritizing financial wellness but aren't making much much progress toward it., and Burns McKinney of NFJ Investment Group, talks about buying value stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

Zed Osmani, portfolio manager for the Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, says the domestic and global economies could avoid a recession this year, although he sees a 65 to 70 percent chance of a sharp slowdown instead. Osmani says the key word for the year is 'pivot,' the centerpiece of a 'healthy bull-bear debate' about whether central banks will pivot in 2023 and how fast they will pivot; the result of that back-and-forth will be heightened volatility and a tough outcome to predict. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the recent news that America's cumulative credit card debt had reached an all-time high, Hailey Neff discusses a recent survey from Todayshomeowner.com showing that one in 20 American homes carries a million-dollar pricetag but asking whether one in 20 Americans can afford that much, and Kevin Kelly of Kelly ETFs talks about thematic investing in the Money Life Market Call.

Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that the technical indicators that the market peaked several weeks, 'screaming overbought, screaming this is not the time to be buying if you are not going to be holding forever,' which has the market in a short-term downturn even as the long-term outlook is positive. He notes that in times like these with conflicting signals, investors can nibble and be selective buyers, but they want to stick to the best names with positive fundamentals that can be held in line with the longer-term positive forecast. Jon Maier, chief investment officer at Global X discusses thematic investing and which themes or specialties stand out under current market conditions and which to avoid. Maier says that capital expenditure from corporations remain strong and investors should ride with that idea, particularly at a time when it appears that consumers are ready to cut spending, fatigued by inflation. And in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund discusses his search for growth-company stocks that 'can change the world or are in the process of changing the world.'

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, says in The Big Interview that the economic data showing that both the economy and inflation are running hotter than expected is going to force the Federal reserve to make some moves that are more likely to trigger not just a recession but a harder landing for the economy. Bostjancic says the Fed has plenty of reason to keep tightening and the markets are starting to price in a bigger rate hike for the March meeting; if February economic data shows continued economic heat, the central bank's response could be the catalyst for a more protracted downturn. But not all economists agree with Bostjancic -- or with each other for that matter -- as shown when Ken Simonson, chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America discusses the latest Outlook survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today and showing that there is no strong consensus for how the current situation will play out. Plus, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts DoorDash in the Danger Zone, noting that it's a zombie stock already well down from 2021 peaks but likely to deliver a second helping of losses as it sinks to a very low fair value. And Stan Haithcock, 'Stan the Annuity Man' joins Chuck to answer a question about a listener's pending pension-versus-annuity decision.

Jim Welsh, portfolio manager at Smart Portfolios and editor of the MacroTides newsletter, says that the next downturn is being set up by recent moves that have bolstered confidence and lulled investors into feeling good. When the market turns, closer to mid-year, Welsh thinks the disappointment of those investors will make the market more vulnerable to 'a significant decline,' which he believes will take the Standard and Poor's 500 down to the 3,500 level, with a hard-landing economy putting 3,200 within the realm of possibilities. In The Big Interview, Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, foresees a 'growth recession,' likely to start in the second half of 2023 as consumers start to tighten up their spending. Rick says a recession, if it happens, will be mild. In The NAVigator segment, Steven Perry, vice president at XA Investments, discusses the benefits and risks associated with leverage in closed-end funds during a rising-rate environment, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how he set up -- and changed over time -- the allowance practices used with his daughters.

Legendary mutual fund manager Bill Nygren of the Oakmark Fund, says that any recession would be an unusual one because there has never been such a weak economic environment with such strong labor and other key conditions. That makes it that auto stocks, consumer lending companies and other businesses that typically suffer in a recession could actually perform well. Nygren emphasizes that despite changing conditions, buying high-quality, cash-generating businesses at reasonable prices continues to work, noting that 'there are a lot of stocks today at single-digit P/E multiples,' and that investors who stock up on those names will look back in five years happy that they purchased the companies despite current chaos. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a young, unique fund that could diversify any portfolio his 'ETF of the Week,' and Mike Winter of Leatherback Asset Management and the Leatherback Long/Short Alternative Yield ETF makes his debut in the Market Call talking a mix of buys and shorts.

Brad Lamensdorf, strategist at The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and chief executive at Active Alts, says the market is 'very, very extended' and is poised for a 20 percent correction that he expects to hit in the second quarter, driving the Standard and Poor's 500 below 3,500 before any real recovery can begin. Lamensdorf says the decline he expects will not be the result of a recession, because he believes the economy may be able to sidestep that kind of growth slowdown but stocks can't, owing to a fair value estimate that he pegs at 3,000 on the index. George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, looks at the same uncertainties and says they have moved gold to 'right where it should be,' positioned for a good year as the market sorts out everything from inflation and interest rates to geopolitical concerns in China and the war in Ukraine. Plus, Laura Adams discusses a Finder survey showing that more than half of American parents aren't paying their kids an allowance, and how the money adults save now will likely cost the children later due to missed educational opportunities.

Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley says 'Investors may be relying too much on recent trends to extrapolate corporate earnings resilience' at a time when corporate earnings are not impressive compared to years past. Meanwhile, slowing economic growth means 'There's still a lot of room for downside in company earnings estimates if we just revert to the mean, forget about hard landing or soft landing." While Shalett thinks a recession is coming, nearly 70 percent of Americans believe it's already here, according to a recent survey; research analyst Jaime Dunaway-Seale of Clever Real Estate discusses the disconnect between economic numbers and consumer expectations. And in the Market Call, portfolio manager Eric McNew of Summit Global Investments discusses managing risk in current market conditions.

Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments, says that while the economic picture remains muddled, there has been an earnings recession -- successive quarters of decline -- and there is now potential for recovery. He says in The Big Interview that the Federal Reserve will not be able to put off a recession indefinitely, but that how investors feel about that economic slowdown can depend mostly on what level the decline starts from and gets to, and the Fed can mitigate a lot of the pain if it manages interest rates properly. feel different based on how far activity falls. Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that the technical indicators are all flashing go signs and 2023 is setting up strong with the market continuing to make higher lows and higher highs, with more and more securities participating in that rising trend. Fox says that if the market can stay above 4,300 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it will soon be testing levels as high as 4,500. In The NAVigator segment, Will Rhind of GraniteShares says that the peak in inflation has created a more favorable outlook for business-development companies and closed-end funds. Plus, Frank Bonanno, managing director at StoneCastle Cash Management talks about how higher interest rates have made cash a viable, investable asset class again and how the ultra wealthy might better manage and protect cash in insured bank accounts.

Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that a recent study done by his firm shows that many recent drivers of short-term market swings won't matter over time, because 'long-term returns after years like we had last year in 2022 are attractive but volatile,' which is precisely what he expects for the remainder of this year. Moreover, Ferrara notes that history indicates that -- if history holds true -- the market is likely to show a good five-year stretch after the troubled year, although that period will be rocky and is likely to include one down year too. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, goes back to the Vanguard Group for the second week in a row -- a rare move for him with any fund family -- to find his ETF of the Week, and Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors, says in the Market Call that he believes the market and economy have reached 'a generational pivot point' caused by the current form of capitalism 'not working for enough people,' and discusses stocks that can thrive through a rocky transitional period.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance, says that the market has reached a time when the better things are in the present, the gloomier they set up for the future. He says that rather than a soft or hard landing for the economy, we could be facing 'no landing,' which further pushes back difficult times because 'the recession has not been canceled, it has just been delayed. I would argue that we are delaying the inevitable and ultimately the longer we delay it the worse it is going to be.' In the Market Call, James Abate, chief investment officer for Centre Asset Management and portfolio manager for the Centre Funds talks infrastructure investing. Plus, the latest installment of the Weird Financial News, featuring the 6-year-old who placed massive food orders from GrubHub when he was supposed to be playing on his father's phone.

John Mousseau, chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors says that he sees the potential for the Federal Reserve to steer the economy clear of a recession, and while he expects volatility and notes that investors are right to be nervous about high inflation and the inverted yield curve, they should not be scared away from fixed income now. Mousseau notes that with inflation starting to ease up while rates have been rising, investors are being paid well for taking on short- and intermediate bonds. In The Book Interview, Scarlett Cochran -- author of 'It's Not About the Money: A Proven Path to Building Wealth and Living the Rich Life You Deserve,' discusses finding the right balance of savings and investing with spending and enjoying life, and she and Chuck discuss how one area where she diverges from most experts is in suggesting that debt be a tool to help consumers embrace and use smartly rather than avoid out of fear. Also on the show, Rona Guymon of Nationwide Annuity discusses the firm's eighth annual Advisor Authority survey, which shows that many investors plan to keep working in retirement, and may move in retirement to where it is cheapest to live, even if that means moving away from family. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to size up a financial adviser whose recommendations are more aggressive than she believes is right for someone her age.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that macroeconomic signals show that a slowdown and recession are coming in the second half of the year, and while investors should be happy with current conditions and technicals supporting a current rally, she believes that signs like a sharply inverted yield curve, declines in new orders portend a major downtrend in growth. As a result, investors are facing a challenge in managing risk now, and she suggests leaning more into fixed income now with a hard landing ahead, while also resisting the temptation to pull away from the market when they see it moving toward a bottom soon. Roland did acknowledge that later this year there may come a time when investors are much less happy with the economic backdrop but quite pleased with the stock market conditions. Also on the show, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs delivers a Valentine's Day bouquet by talking about a stock he likes now, noting that it's in the same industry as one of the companies he dislikes the most, allowing him to compare the two. Plus, in the Market Call, Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management discusses his 'GPS Method' for choosing exchange-traded funds.

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the current rally is not a sign of a new bull market, but rather proof that the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes haven't really had much impact on the economy yet. She expects labor market softness to increase, layoffs to start and unemployment to rise, with the Fed not pulling back on interest rates until 2024, and while investors are waiting for that pivot they are likely to feel the effects of a hard landing for the economy. Smith's short and intermediate take -- dramatically different than other experts in the Big Interview this week --- said that while she can't say the forecast for the next year is particularly positive, she believes the returns for the next five years will be in line with historic norms. Jeff Bishop, chief executive at RagingBull.com, says that the technical indicators are all looking good, but he's wary of the fundamentals and while that caution has him leaning to the bearish side, the market's current trend is bullish enough that investors should be buying the dips now. In The NAVigator segment, Michael Beth, director of trading at WallachBeth Capital, discusses the challenges posed by liquidity issues that can cost closed-end fund investors real money when it comes to making trades efficiently. PLUS, Chuck talks about a sure-thing financial bet that's based on something investors will be watching at this weekend's Super Bowl.

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that equities bottom when inflation peaks, and that process -- typically coupled with the Federal Reserve becoming less hawkish -- is well underway. Papic says the Fed's downshift in the size of rate hikes at a time when inflation remains elevated is a sign that the central bank has already shifted its policy focus, and will lead to consumers having more money in their pocket and setting up 'a pretty bullish environment.' Papic expects the market and economy to be strong through 2023, but does seem some storm clouds on the horizon for late 2024, fertilized by some Fed action in trying to ultimately hit target inflation numbers. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to small-cap stocks -- which financial advisers have been looking at as one of the more promising areas of the market for this year -- and makes a growth fund his ETF of the Week, Matt Zajechowski discusses a study done for Forbes Advisor showing that nearly 80 percent of the members of the millennial and Gen Z generations have gotten financial advice from social media, and Chuck answers a listener's question about dealing with collectibles from long-ago childhoods.

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says there is a higher probability of a soft landing today than anyone foresaw at the end of 2022, and that the stock market's strong January proved that investors are buying into the narrative. That said, Garretty says that what people expect a soft landing to be is 'fuzzy.' She expects a time of slowdown and belt tightening, with a little bit of pain and discomfort. Also on the show is Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which shows that the strong start to the year has investors feeling better than they have in months, although the improving feelings are tempered by an increase in consumers' financial stress levels. Also, Financial adviser and author Anthony Saccaro, discusses his new book, 'More Life Than Money: How Not to Outlive Your Savings,' and Chuck answers a listener's question about using an old credit card that is no longer needed for day-to-day financial needs but which has a great fixed rate.

Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says we may be 'close to the finish line with respect to how much [earnings estimates] needed to come down,' noting that earnings estimates have already come down about as far as they are likely to. Still, that doesn't give Mian reason to expect a strong rebound; he says corporate performance will lag the earnings cycle, which will lead to a sideways market with the real rebound to come in 2024. In the Talking Technicals segment, Jason Brown of The Brown Report says that he believes the market has stopped falling but has moved into a sideways channel, which could last for a while but which will help to build a base for a new bull market rally. Also on the show, Vince Shorb of the National Financial Educators Council discusses a survey showing that Americans believe they are losing a big chunk of money every year to their own financial illiteracy. In The Market Call, Mark Salzinger, chief investment officer at Salzinger Sheaff Brock, talks about traditional funds and ETFs.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that 'everything is lining up pretty well that the Fed can shepherd the economy to the other side,' and that the markets are starting to agree with that conclusion, expecting a soft landing -- anemic growth but avoiding a deep decline -- and price improvement from here. Mullarkey also notes that he sees 2023 as 'the year of the yield,' which he described as 'a great opportunity to go to the fixed income buffet table and pick from it right now,' noting that he particularly likes U.S. corporate bonds. In The Book Interview, author Drago Dimitrov, discusses what he thinks investors should really know about the underlying operations of the stocks they purchase, as covered by his book 'What Does This Company Do? Understanding a Business and its Risks' David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes that conversation a step further as he discusses a real-estate company that's a 'zombie stock,' but also part of a troubling wave within an industry. Plus, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub covers the site's recent survey showing that -- no matter what the official numbers are saying about prices -- a majority of Americans believe inflation is going to keep getting worse this year.