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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

273 episodes — Page 4 of 6

Equity Market Strength is Masking a Recession | Mike Green

Mike Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify, joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the strength of the equity market and other technical factors are obfuscating weakness in the US consumer and broader indicators of economic weakness to the point that it could be masking a recession. Green also discusses his views on inflation, the bond market, and the current stage of the passive investing endgame that he believes is the main culprit driving equity markets higher and higher. Follow Mike Green on Twitter: https://x.com/profplum99 Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Read Mike’s Substack here: https://www.yesigiveafig.com Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:46 US Consumer Mirage 08:59 The Impact of High Interest Rates 13:39 Labor Market Weakness Will Eventually Force the Fed to Cut 15:03 Current Stage of the Passive Endgame 25:25 Recession Timing 33:31 How Will Asset Values Fair in the Next Recession? 40:30 Bond Market &Inflation Views 46:38 Uber's Impact on Unemployment 52:03 Tariff Uncertainty & the Fed 54:04 Bonds, Housing, & Other Macro Trades 01:02:03 Bitcoin, Solana, & Other Closing Thoughts

Jun 18, 20251h 14m

The Fed Will Choose Inflation Over Recession | Vincent Deluard

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX joins Monetary Matters to discuss why he believes changes to policy makers toolkit and to the structure of the economy mean recessions are “cancelled.” He also discusses why he believes Trump’s MAGA economic policies will be bad for corporate profit margins and his bullish outlook on oil and energy stocks. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:07 Recessions are Cancelled 08:23 The No Recession Feedback Loop 11:11 Impact of Tariffs 13:21 MAGA’s War on Corporate Profits 19:26 Corporate Tax Rates 21:56 Fiscal Balance of Payments Crisis 26:11 Outlook for Inflation, Growth, and Rates 36:07 Outlook for the Stock Market 40:51 US Multiples Compared to Rest of the World 45:18 Bullish View on Oil & Energy Sector 55:15 July Fed Predictions

Jun 15, 202557 min

Capacity Constrained by Design: The 25-Year-Old Building Niche Multi-Manager Hedge Fund Platforms | Zach Levitt

Zach Levitt, CIO and Founder of Sixth Turn Capital and Opus One Asset Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss how he is standing up multi-manager platforms at just 25 years old by focusing on niche capacity constrained managers. Levitt discusses the benefits of combining uncorrelated capacity constrained strategies in a multi-manager platform, his unconventional path to founding a multi-manager platform, how mentorship has helped accelerate his growth, and how he goes about attracting talented investors to his platform. Follow Zach on X: https://x.com/derivative_bro Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps 00:00 Intro 00:48 Skipping the Analyst Track and Founding a Hedge Fund at 25 07:14 Many Great Track Records Indicate Nefarious Information Was Traded On 09:42 What Does a Good Capacity Constrained Manager Look Like? 13:38 What Level of Correlation is "Uncorrelated" 18:20 What Level of Capacity is "Capacity Constrained"? 21:30 Mentorship Through Podcasts & Cold Outreach 26:13 Convincing Managers To Join Your Platform as a 25 Year Old 28:46 Investor Interest in SMAs vs Commingled Funds 35:25 Battling Startup Costs 39:06 Selling Talented Investors on Your Success Story 43:39 Risk Management and Cutting Portfolio Managers 47:38 Marketing "Hypothetical" Track Records 52:32 Next Stages of Growth 54:20 Assessing the Capacity Limits 57:17 Can PA Traders Become PMs?

Jun 12, 20251h 0m

Trade Policy Isn't Driving China’s Trade Surplus | Matthew Klein

Matthew Klein, founder of The Overshoot and UN/BALANCED and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars with Michael Pettis joins Monetary Matters to discuss what factors really lead to major trade and capital flow imbalances between countries. He argues that factors like income inequality, domestic economic policy and decisions being made at the corporate level can have far more impact than country level trade policy. He also discusses why even though extreme trade and capital flow imbalances may be dangerous, implementing improper solutions can exacerbate the damage. Follow Matthew Klein on Twitter: https://x.com/M_C_Klein Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Read Matthews Substack The Overshoot here: https://theovershoot.co/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:52 Why Trade Wars Are Class Wars 12:13 Trade Surpluses vs Trade Deficits 18:51 Income Distribution Drives Capital Flows 28:28 China's Shifting Income Distribution 33:41 The Problem With China's Growing Trade and Current Account Surplus 41:51 Who is Winning in China? 44:04 How to Combat China's "Cheating on Trade" 49:25 Who Has the Upper Hand in Trade Negotiations? 54:05 Will Tariffs Drive Reshoring? 59:53 How Can the US Restore Balance of Trade? 01:08:29 Conclusions

Jun 11, 20251h 13m

“The Dollar Gets Annihilated” | Julian Brigden & Jonny Matthews on Fiscal Dominance, Secular Bond Bear Market, and Outlook on Rates & Tariffs

This conversation was originally recorded for Julian Brigden’s research service, MacroCapture. Sign up for MacroCapture by MI2 Partners today with coupon codes MM10 (for annual) and MM10Q (for quarterly) to save 10% at: https://mi2partners.com/macrocapture-landing-page/ Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners and veteran macro trader Jonny Matthews of SuperMacro join Monetary Matters for a wide-ranging discussion of the forces that are contributing to a global weak market in sovereign bonds. Recorded May 28th and released for Julian’s MacroCapture clients on June 3rd. Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://x.com/JulianMI2 Follow Jonny Matthews on Twitter https://x.com/super_macro Follow MI2 Partners on Twitter https://x.com/MI2Partners Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Jun 8, 20251h 33m

What Investors Are Overlooking in AI & Semis | Val Zlatev

Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Senior Partner at hard tech specialist hedge fund Analog Century Capital Management joins Other People’s Money to discuss what he thinks investors still fail to appreciate about the secular growth of AI and semiconductors. He also discusses why DeepSeek was so misunderstood, other aspects of the AI supply chain, the state of the analog chip cycle, running long/short and market neutral strategies and garnering interest from the large multi-manager platforms. Learn More About Analog Century Capital Management: https://www.analogcm.com/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:15 What is Hard Tech? 02:41 The Evolution of the Hard Tech Sector From the 90s to Now 05:04 Investors Are Underweight Hard Tech 11:09 The Massive Impact of the End of Moore's Law 16:59 New Investment in Semiconductor Capacity 18:08 Why AI Should Be Compared to Cloud, Not Fiber 22:55 What Investors Got Wrong About DeepSeek 25:41 The US Government's Impact on AI & Chips 33:04 The Chinese Government’s Involvement in AI & Chips 35:13 Dominant Players in Chinese Semiconductor Market 39:12 The AI Supply Chain Beyond Semiconductors 43:53 Analog Semiconductors & Power Management 49:55 Winners, Losers, and Fakers in AI 57:03 Research Process for Hard Tech 01:01:25 Dispersion in Hard Tech Returns 01:03:31 Trading and Portfolio Construction at Analog Century 01:08:13 Market Neutral & Garnering Interest From Multi-Manager Platforms 01:12:20 Market Neutral vs Long/Short Investors 01:14:51 The Value of Partners and Team Continuity 01:16:42 Conclusion

Jun 5, 20251h 16m

Soaring US Debt Burden & The Global Market Reset | Gerard Minack

To learn more about the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ): https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/ To view the prospectus: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors joins Monetary Matters to discuss why even though other developed nations like Japan may have higher debt to GDP ratios, factors like net debt, monetized debt, and the overall size of US debt make this comparison flawed. He argues these factors make the current trajectory of US debt levels completely unsustainable and that the bond vigilantes will step in long before even more extreme levels are reached. He also discussed the extreme valuation gap for US assets compared to the rest of the world, why he thinks that gap will narrow, Mag 7 dominance and AI, and why he thinks Japan, not China, is the large Asian market set to outperform. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us You can find Gerard Minack on Bloomberg Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:24 Van Eck OUNZ 01:00 Interest Rate & Bond Market Views 09:13 Comparing US Debt Levels to Japan 12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data 16:19 Two Growth Scenarios Affecting Rates This Year 23:30 Van Eck OUNZ 24:05 The New World of Higher Rates 33:12 How Higher Rates Impact Stocks 43:01 The AI Trade and US Valuations 49:23 The US Valuation Gap vs The Rest of the World 53:12 Mag 7 Dominance 01:03:15 Bearish on Chinese Stocks and Bullish on Japan 01:09:23 Japan's Macro Backdrop 01:16:19 The Neutral Rate & Demographics 01:21:22 No Recessions in Australia 01:26:16 Australian Outlook

Jun 4, 20251h 32m

American Exceptionalism was a Fiscal Facade | Marko Papic

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, joins Monetary Matters to argue that while tariffs may be the catalyst that shifts global appetites for US assets, it will be the necessary shift to fiscal hawkishness that will drive the end of “American Exceptionalism” and outperformance of US markets. Papic also discusses his views on as shift towards a multipolar world and why he views the dual polar world with US and China as competing global hegemons as the least likely outcome when compared with a multipolar reality or the revitalization of the American Empire. Follow Marko Papic on Twitter https://x.com/Geo_papic Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 01:00 Why TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is Wrong 08:29 Recession Risks vs Stock Market Risks 12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data 15:12 Timeline for Trade Policy Certainty 20:53 Tariffs as a Catalyst for Domestic Economic Improvements Globally 26:47 The US Fiscal Facade 28:28 China Outlook 30:14 The Big Beautiful Bill & US Fiscal Deficit 41:02 DOGE’s Political Signal Value 48:09 US Defense Spending 51:13 Russia & Ukraine War 56:07 Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World 01:03:01 Middle East Stability

Jun 1, 20251h 6m

Patient Value Investing and America’s Industrial Advantage | Bob Robotti

Bob Robotti, legendary value investor and President and CIO of Robotti and Company Advisors, is one of a very select group of investors with a 30+ year track record of S&P 500 outperformance. Here he joins Other People’s Money to discuss long-term value investing, why he likes to invest in companies perceived to be facing headwinds, and his view that American based industrial companies are competitively advantaged for reasons completely unaffected by trade policy. He also discusses how he operates both an advisory business and a broker dealer business and how the broker dealer has served as a starting point for many other great value investors. Learn More About Robotti Advisors: https://advisors.robotti.com Follow Bob Robotti on X: https://x.com/BobRobotti Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:27 Patient Capital 08:05 Investing in Companies with Headwinds 12:13 Building Products Businesses 16:08 North American Industrial Advantage 22:41 Industries Returning to the USA 27:18 Valuing Businesses on Cost of Replacement 30:56 The Links Between Lumber, Building Products, and Housing 33:24 Engaging With Management in Long-term Positions 39:04 Trading Around Long-Term Positions 47:57 Buying Stocks After They've Gone Up 52:56 Trading Against Each Other 55:01 Having a Broker Dealer and Advisory Business 59:15 Jumping From the Sell Side to the Buy Side 01:04:08 Capital Churn 01:06:03 All US Equity Investors Should Compare Themselves to the S&P 500

May 29, 20251h 14m

Regime of Uncertainty | Steve Hanke on Money Supply Shock, Tariff and Current Account, and Why Recession Remains Base Case For 2025

To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/ Steve Hanke, author of “Making Money Work” and Professor of Applied Economics The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, joins Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on the anemic bank credit growth, fiscal and tariffs policy in the United States, and the global Dollar system. Recorded May 20, 2025. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_usFollow Steve Hanke on Twitter https://x.com/steve_hanke Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Steve’s book, “Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System”, on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 “Making Money Work” from Publisher (Wiley): https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Making+Money+Work%3A+How+to+Rewrite+the+Rules+of+Our+Financial+System-p-9781394257270 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 28, 202545 min

Economic Policy To The Fore | Jason Furman on Deregulation, Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Healthcare

Jason Furman, former Chairman of Council of Economic Advisers for President Obama and Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University, joins Monetary Matters to share his view of the Trump administration’s “three-legged stool” of tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts. Recorded May 20, 2025. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Jason Furman on Twitter https://x.com/jasonfurman Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 25, 202537 min

Fiscal Decay, EM Parallels, and What’s Next for the Dollar | Nicolás Dujovne

Nicolás Dujovne, CIO and founder of Tenac Asset Management and former Treasury Minister of Argentina joins Monetary Matters to discuss the evolution of emerging market economies, EM debt investing, and why even though the US’s failure to address fiscal issues may be reminiscent of emerging markets it still falls short of full EM status even if it risks the US Dollar’s reserve currency status over the long run. Dujovne also identifies the opportunities he's watching now, explains why he thinks the dollar is moving lower, and makes the case for EM debt becoming more common in investor portfolios. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS. Historical performance is included for informational purposes only and should not be relied on as being indicative of results that will be achieved by the Fund. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. Differences in the timing of the transactions, capital contributions or withdrawals, and market conditions prevailing at the time of the investment will lead to different results. Performance shown is for the stated time period only. Performance is presented net of fees and expenses and assumes the reinvestment of income and earnings. The net figures reflect the deduction of management fees (1.5%) and incentive fees (15%). BENCHMARKS. The performance of the Fund is shown as compared to indices. Broad-based securities indices are unmanaged and are not subject to fees and expenses typically associated with investment funds. Investments cannot be made directly in a broad-based securities index. The benchmark is provided for reference only and does not imply that the Fund will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to the benchmark. The composition of a benchmark index does not reflect the way the Fund portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, investment holdings, sectors, correlations, concentrations or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change over time. Learn more about Tenac Asset Management: https://tenacam.com Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:46 The Impact of the Dollar on EMs Like Argentina 04:59 The Impact of the Fed and US Rated on EMs Experiencing Crisis 08:15 The Causes of Argentina's Inflation 15:17 The Mechanics of Money Printing 18:38 Macro Investing in Emerging Markets 28:30 Dollar Bonds vs Local Currency Bonds 34:55 Why Do Countries Issue Dollar Bonds? 40:05 The Case for EM Debt as an Asset Class 44:21 Balance of Payments 47:51 Economics vs Trading 52:58 Rebalancing the US vs the Rest of World 55:40 The Weakening US Dollar 57:54 Tariff Impacts on US GDP 01:01:36 One Year Dollar Outlook 01:03:25 Current Positioning 01:05:26 Current Market Anomalies 01:08:52 Is the US Becoming an Emerging Market 01:13:54 LATAM Tariff Winners 01:17:16 Opinions on Milei 01:21:18 Argentina Market Views

May 23, 20251h 25m

The Holy Grail of Macro | Prometheus Macro’s Aahan Menon on Why Tariffs Won’t Cause A Recession And Why Buying Dips Only Works In An Expansion

Monetary Matters listeners can get a 25% discount to Prometheus Macro: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Macro, returns to Monetary Matters to share his in-depth macro process. He talks about how returns come from three factors: carry, mean reversion, and trend, and about how these three factors interact with other macro variables. Prometheus Macro is a trusted source for Jack and Monetary Matters listeners can get discounted access to Aahan’s research service by using the link below. Annual subscriptions can be purchased at 25% off the monthly subscription rate, and monthly subscribers can get a 10% discounted rate. https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters Follow Aahan Menon on Twitter https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Follow Prometheus Macro on Twitter https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 20, 20251h 43m

Is Private Credit a Systemic Risk? (A Regulator’s View) | Fabio Natalucci

Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Anderson Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Monetary Matters to discuss his work at the IMF on the potential risks to the global financial system that the growth of private credit may pose. They also discuss the affects that tariffs will have not just on the economy but the functioning of the financial system.Learn more about the Anderson Institute: https://www.andersen.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:48 A Regulator's View of Private Credit 12:58 Private Credit Replacing the Banking System 15:46 New Types of Private Credit Investors 19:34 Private Credit Liquidity 24:11 Private Credit Leverage 29:00 Geographical Regulatory Risks 30:23 Is Private Credit Investment Grade? 36:01 Private Capital's Entry to the Insurance Business 41:49 Derivatives in Private Credit and Collateralized Fund Obligations 45:44 Economic and Financial Implications of Tariffs 01:01:53 The Risk of Foreigners Selling US Assets 01:09:53 Taiwan Life Insurance Markets 01:12:37 Does Trump Want a Weaker Dollar? 01:15:37 Lack of Consumption Ex-US 01:20:29 The Anderson Institute

May 17, 20251h 25m

The Fed and The Flu | David Kotok on How Pandemics Transform Economies and Markets

David Kotok, Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors, joins Monetary Matters to discuss insights from his new book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks.” Kotok cites data over millennia to show that pandemics typically cause natural real interest rates to decline, and productivity and inequality to rise. Kotok argues that we must prepare for the next pandemic and shares his view on the origin of the COVID virus. Part II of an interview recorded on April 4, 2025, with the first part having aired on April 7, 2025. David Kotok’s book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks”: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Flu-Parsing-Pandemic-Economic-ebook/dp/B0DCK1ZHJT Paper, “Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics”: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26934/w26934.pdf Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://x.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 16, 20251h 4m

Milton Berg: “Overwhelming” Evidence of Bullish Action In Stock Market

Milton Berg, pioneer in technical market data analysis, explains why he thinks early April was a turning point in the U.S. stock market and why the stock market is likely headed higher. Recorded May 13, 2025 Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://x.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 14, 20251h 24m

Ken Rogoff on Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Dollar Hegemony

To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/ Ken Rogoff’s new book on the U.S. Dollar on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315 On Publisher’s site: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/ Ken Rogoff, renowned economist and author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead” traces the development of the U.S. Dollar’s rise to world dominance, and he connects it with the trade and capital imbalances that have recently motivated large tariff actions from the United States. Rogoff argues that he thinks the Trump tariff policy through April 30 2025 was somewhat “dumb” but that there is a chance that 10 years from now Trump will be viewed as having been right. Recorded April 30, 2025. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 12, 20251h 7m

The Global Trade Reset Was Inevitable | George Magnus

George Magnus, famed economist and Associate at the China Centre Oxford, joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the global trade reset was inevitable because of unsustainable trade imbalances built up prior to the Trump administration. They also discuss the likelihood of tariffs being lowered and the relative strength of the US and China in trade negotiations. Follow George Magnus on Twitter https://x.com/georgemagnus1Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 8, 20251h 20m

Wait & See | Jack & Max on May Fed Meeting, Shipping Volumes, China Stimulus, and Tariff Newsflow

Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, Other People’s Money podcast host. The two discuss the May Fed meeting, in which Powell repeatedly stressed that the central bank is in a wait and see posture as it gauges how tariffs will impact inflation and growth. The two also discuss shipping volumes, tariff front running, and China’s recent monetary stimulus. Recorded May 7, 2025. Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money podcast on Twitter https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 7, 202550 min

Getting Ready For A Protracted Bear Market | Last Bear Standing

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Last Bear Standing joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks subpar equity returns are likely. In his words, “ The market’s current decline is not a correction, a bump in the road, or a dip to be bought. We have entered a protracted bear market.” Recorded on May 1, 2025. Follow Last Bear Standing on Twitter https://x.com/LastBearStandng Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 “The Matador”: https://substack.com/@thelastbearstanding/p-162490853 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 6, 20251h 6m

End of Free Trade Era Should Not Spook Long-Term Investors | Kara Murphy

Kara Murphy, CIO of Kestra Investment Management, joins Monetary Matters to share her investment outlook at a time of great uncertainty in global financial markets. Murphy argues that investors are best served taking a long-term approach, and investors with a long-time horizon ought not to spooked by policy-induced short-term gyrations in the stock market. Recorded on May 2, 2025. Follow Kara Murphy on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/moneywithmurphy/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

May 4, 202553 min

How Hedge Funds Have Managed Market Turmoil with Jack and Max

The first 4 months of 2025 have been highly volatile hurting both equity and fixed income investors alike, but how has the “smart money” faired in this environment? Jack and Max breakdown the performance of hedge funds in Q1 and April of 2025 with data from Citco Fund Services and HFRI. They also discuss the recent moves by Yale and Harvard to sell some of their private equity stakes and other indicators that might signal trouble ahead for PE as an asset class. Follow Jack on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod

Apr 30, 202557 min

Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities | Teucrium's Sal Gilbertie on Grain Stockpiles, Trade Disruptions To Crops, and Ripple (FIRESIDE CHAT)

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Learn more about Teucrium’s Model Commodity Portfolio: https://insights.teucrium.com/commodities1subscribe Golden Grain Cycle: https://insights.teucrium.com/golden-grain-cycle This Fireside Chat is a sponsored conversation with the CEO of Teucrium, Sal Gilbertie. Sal’s company offers access to agricultural commodities such as corn ($CORN), soybeans ($SOYB), wheat ($WEAT), sugar, as well as broad commodity indices ($TAGS & $TILL) and 2x levered Ripple ($XXRP). Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Sal Gilbertie on Twitter https://x.com/GilbertieSal Follow Jake Hanley on Twitter https://x.com/MacroView_Jake Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 28, 202546 min

The Financial Sector Prepares for Recession | Marc Rubinstein

Marc Rubinstein, former hedge fund manager and author of Net Interest joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the financial sector is preparing itself for the risks of a recession and how they are managing tariff uncertainty during this earnings season. Rubinstein touches on the different subsectors of the financial sector, like banks, non-banks, asset managers and payments companies, as well as how financials in different geographies may benefit from the reshuffling of global trade. Read Marc’s Net Interest Substack on The Great Payments Processor Reshuffle of 2025: https://www.netinterest.co/p/partner-swap Follow Marc Rubinstein on Twitter https://x.com/MarcRuby Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 27, 20251h 20m

Hidden Mortgage Market Shifts Are Creating Opportunities | Matt Jozoff of Trevally Capital

Matt Jozoff, co-CEO, Portfolio Manager, and Head of Macro Research at Trevally Capital joins Other People’s Money, to discuss how trends like the growth in the Ginnie Mae market, low credit borrowers and non-bank originators, and other factors are affecting mortgage prepayments and creating opportunities in the mortgage market for firms like Trevally Capital. He also discusses how Trevally Capital is looking to extract alpha from these opportunities and build a world-class institutional asset manager with the backing of partners like The Raptor Group and Seaport Global Securities. Learn more about Trevally Capital: https://www.trevallycapital.com/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:33 Post-Tariff Fixed Income Market Update 06:49 Recent Mortgage Market Developments 10:45 Ginnie Mae Mortgages 12:04 Not Calling For Another Mortgage Crisis 13:42 Nobody Can Afford Refinancing 17:24 Trump Admin and Fannie & Freddie 21:08 Factors Affecting Mortgage Prepayments 28:27 Day one Institutional Quality 34:53 Prepayments Part II 39:04 Importance of Seed Investors like Raptor & Seaport Global 42:07 Hedge Fund Seed Investing is Venture Capital 43:55 Peers & Competitors in the Mortgage Market 49:36 Physics & Cincinnati Connection

Apr 24, 202550 min

Tariffs Aren’t Going Away | PIMCO’s Policy Head Libby Cantrill on Trade and Tax Environment In New U.S. Administration

Libby Cantrill, Managing Director and Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, joins Monetary Matters to explain her outlook on U.S. trade and tax policy. Cantrill argues that while Trump administration has flexibility in tariff negotiations and that the China tariffs are likely headed much lower (a prediction that already looks like it will come true), tariffs are not going away anytime soon and she views the 10% tariffs on the world as a floor, with reciprocal tariffs on top of that floor especially on China being elevated. Cantrill also shares her views on sectoral tariffs, the rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (she doesn’t think it has traction), and tax cuts. Recorded the afternoon of April 22, 2025. Follow Libby Cantrill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/libby-cantrill-cfa-17162513b/ Most recent piece, “Overall U.S. Tariff Level Still High Despite Exemptions”: https://www.pimco.com/us/en/insights/overall-us-tariff-level-still-high-despite-exemptions Cantrill’s profile on PIMCO: https://www.pimco.com/us/en/experts/libby-cantrill Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 23, 202555 min

Preparing For A Real Credit Cycle | Danny Moses on Tariff Fatigue, Private Credit, Gold, Tarnishing of U.S. Brand, and Why Stocks Still Aren’t Cheap

To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/ What happens to Private Credit in a slowdown? Are fears of tariffs overblown? Danny Moses of “The Big Short” renown joins Monetary Matters to share his views on these important issues and more. Recorded April 17 2025. Follow Danny Moses on Twitter https://x.com/dmoses34 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Danny Moses’ podcast, On The Tape: https://open.spotify.com/show/1Bawg52xr2HpGeN36npyua Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 22, 20251h 11m

Breaking The Dollar System | Freya Beamish

Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, joins Jack to argue why American tariff policy is accelerating a transition to a multi-polar international monetary order. She estimates that U.S. and China will reach a deal lowering tariffs to ~30% levels and shares her views on bonds and gold. Recorded on April 14, 2025. Follow Freya Beamish on Twitter https://x.com/freyabeamish Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 20, 20251h 11m

The World Is Dumping U.S. Assets | Julian Brigden

Sign up for MacroCapture by MI2 Partners today with coupon codes MM10 (for annual) and MM10Q (for quarterly) to save 10% at: https://mi2partners.com/macrocapture-landing-page/ Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the dramatic shift in US trade policy is making non-US investors dump US assets and bring home the profits from a historic bull run in US assets. He also explains why this repatriation of profits coupled with an eventual slowdown in the flow of dollars driven by tariff policy itself spells a weaker dollar and trouble for US financial markets, even if it does result in American reindustrialization. Recorded April 15, 2025. Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://x.com/JulianMI2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:53 The Whole World is Overweight the US 09:55 Tariffs Slow the Dollar Flow 17:54 Selling US Assets is Prudent for Foreign Investors 26:42 Who Wins in the US Domestic Economy? 29:56 MacroCapture 34:58 Tariffs Have Been a Carpet-bomb Approach 44:06 Tariffs = Stagflation 49:43 Tariff Effects on China and Europe 54:04 Are Risks Greater in the US? 01:00:13 Will Foreign Markets Outperform on US Weakness or Their Strength? 01:04:32 Bond Market Outlook 01:10:24 Gold Outlook 01:12:50 Reading the Tape to Detect Market Participants 01:18:16 Where is the Trump Put? 01:22:21 America’s Liz Truss Moment 01:25:59 Credit Trades and HYG

Apr 16, 20251h 35m

Dodging Tariff Turmoil in Nordic High Yield Credit | Måns Levin of Ridge Capital

Måns Levin, CEO and co-founder of Ridge Capital, joins Other People’s Money, to discuss why they believe the Nordic high yield credit market provides unique opportunities for double-digit returns and insolation from tariff and trade war risks. Levin discusses the exceptional start Ridge Capital has had, both in terms of performance and asset raising, the specific features and composition of the Nordic high yield market that they find most attractive, and the flexibility in strategies required to take full advantage of the opportunities they see. Follow Ridge Capital on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ridgecap/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod #credit #creditmarket #fixedincome #bonds #nordic #sweden #norway #denmark #finland #stocks #economics #economy #stockmarket #investing #hedgefunds #trading #wallstreet #ridgecapital #finance

Apr 15, 202551 min

Lyn Alden: Challenge America’s Trade Deficit, Challenge The U.S. Dollar | Alden on China, Gold, and Financial and Economic Impacts of Tariffs

To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus Learn more: vaneck.com/OUNZJack Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy explains the connection between the capital and financial imbalances the U.S. has with the rest of the world and its trade imbalances which are under so much scrutiny by the current U.S. administration. Alden argues that turbulence in markets, particularly U.S. assets, could continue, and warns listeners not to be exposed beyond their risk limits at a juncture that could be a historic time for markets and the global economy. Recorded April 10, 2025. Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Lyn Alden’s book, “Broken Money”: https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG8985FR Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez ____ The material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Before investing you should carefully consider the VanEck Merk Gold ETF’s (“OUNZ” or the “Trust”) investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. An investment in the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (“OUNZ” or the “Trust”) is subject to significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. OUNZ is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the “1940 Act”) and therefore is not subject to the same protections as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the 1940 Act. The request for redemption of shares for gold is subject to a number of risks including but not limited to the potential for the price of gold to decline during the time between the submission of the request and delivery. Delivery may take a considerable amount of time depending on your location. The Sponsor for the Trust is Merk Investments, LLC. The Marketing Agent for the Trust is Van Eck Securities Corporation. © Merk Investments LLC © Van Eck Associates Corporation

Apr 11, 20251h 9m

When the Market Crashes… They Profit | Wayne Himelsein on Logica Capital’s Long Volatility Playbook

Wayne Himelsein, CIO and founder of Logic Capital Advisors, joins Other People’s Money, to discuss how his hedge fund is built to profit when volatility spikes in moments just like this. Everybody wants to carry crash protection but if implemented improperly the cost of carrying hedges can bleed you dry. Finding innovative ways to solve this problem is what drives Himelsein and Logica forward and in this discussion he discusses their approach to maintaining at the money long volatility exposure without relying on spread trades to fund tail hedges. This episode is brought to you by Fintool, a financial copilot tailored for institutional investors. Fintool leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover financial insights beyond the reach of timely human analysis. From summarizing extensive annual reports to computing numbers and unearthing new insights by comparing years of filings, Fintool equips institutional investors like Janus Henderson, First Manhattan and companies like PWC. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm Follow Wayne on X: https://x.com/WayneHimelsein Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod

Apr 9, 202556 min

Why Trump Is Likely To Negotiate Trade Deals | Charles Gasparino on Tariffs, White House Factions, and Protectionist Conservative Coalition

Charles Gasparino, Fox Business Senior Correspondent, give color into the protectionist and moderate factions in the White House, and explains why he thinks that, President Trump is likely to reach a deal with major trading partners. Recorded April 8, 2025. Follow Charles Gasparino on Twitter https://x.com/CGasparino Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 8, 202554 min

“Going Full Reagan” | Tian Yang on Trump Administration’s Bet To Shrink U.S. Trade Deficit, Signs of Market Panic, and Dollar Outlook

Tian Yang, CEO and head of research at Variant Perception, explains his view on a variety of assets on time horizons of tactical, cyclical, and structural duration. Recorded April 7, 2025. Follow Variant Perception on Twitter https://x.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Variant Perception website: https://variantperception.com/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 8, 202559 min

Tariff Escalation Update | Jack & Max on April 7 Tariff News & Market

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe Other People’s Money Podcast on Twitter https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 7, 202544 min

“Supply Shock Greater Than Great Depression-Era Smoot-Hawley Tariff” | David Kotok on Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs And Market Crash

David Kotok’s book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks”: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Flu-Parsing-Pandemic-Economic-ebook/dp/B0DCK1ZHJT Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://x.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 7, 202556 min

Trump’s War on Markets | Benn Eifert on Volatility, Tariffs and Growth of Derivatives-Embedded ETFs

Benn Eifert of QVR Advisors joins Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on tariffs, volatility, and the growth of ETFs with embedded derivatives. Recorded on March 26 (before “Liberation Day” and the market crash). Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter https://x.com/bennpeifert Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 5, 20251h 5m

Liberation Day Has Come | Jack & Max on Seismic Market Revolt Against Trump Admin’s Tariff Policy (Recorded April 3 2025)

Jack Farley & Max Wiethe share their analysis as global financial markets react with shock to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs which are based not on other countries’ tariff or non-tariff trade measures, but on the level of trade deficit itself. Recorded the morning of April 3, 2025. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe Other People’s Money Podcast on Twitter https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 3, 202544 min

Tariffs: The Ultimate Stagflationary Shock? | Darius Dale on "Liberation Day," DOGE, Gold, and the Global Debt Refinancing Air Pocket

Darius Dale of 42Macro joins Jack to explain why he’s been bearish on U.S. stocks and expects the rough sledding to continue. Dale believes stagflationary shock from tariffs and deflationary DOGE forces could cause Treasurys to catch a short-term bid, but long-term he is bearish on bonds. On a longer-term time horizon, Dale thinks Trump fiscal forces could be positive for the economy and markets. Recorded on April 1, 2025. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://x.com/DariusDale42 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Apr 2, 20251h 5m

Trading Market Turmoil: Any System is Better than No System | OPM Trader Talks with Petr Pinkhasov of Anthem Capital Management

This episode is brought to you by Fintool. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process with Fintool: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm Petr Pinkhasov, CIO and founder of Anthem Capital Management, joins Other People’s Money, for a special “Trader Talks” episode where he discusses how he trades incorporating quantitative signals, thematic views, and technical analysis patterns like DeMark indicators. Petr also discusses how he’s been handling the volatile start to 2025 and what forces he is attributing the market’s recent turmoil and rotations. This episode is brought to you by Fintool, a financial copilot tailored for institutional investors. Fintool leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover financial insights beyond the reach of timely human analysis. From summarizing extensive annual reports to computing numbers and unearthing new insights by comparing years of filings, Fintool equips institutional investors like Janus Henderson, First Manhattan and companies like PWC. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm Follow Petr on X: https://x.com/pinkhasov Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod

Apr 1, 202555 min

Tariffs & Q2 Growth Shock | Trade Maven Brad Setser on Trump’s Tariff Warpath, China’s Balance of Payments, and “Self-Induced Recession” Probabilities

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack Brad Setser is an expert on global trade and capital flows, having served as senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022. The Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) joins Monetary Matters to explain why he thinks President Trump’s tariffs are likely to cause a growth shock in the second quarter. Recorded on March 20, 2025 Brad Setser piece on China’s Balance of Payments: https://www.cfr.org/blog/iphone-imf-and-chinas-balance-payments “The Evolution of Global Trade in 2024”: https://www.cfr.org/blog/evolution-global-trade-2024 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Brad Setser on Twitter https://x.com/Brad_Setser Brad Setser on CFR: https://www.cfr.org/expert/brad-w-setser Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Mar 26, 20251h 26m

From Treasury Minister of Argentina to Macro Hedge Fund Manager | Nicolás Dujovne of Tenac Asset Management

This episode is brought to you by Fintool. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process with Fintool: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm Nicolás Dujovne, CIO and founder of Tenac Asset Management, joins Other People’s Money to discuss his path from Treasury Minister of Argentina and president of the G-20 to hedge fund manager. Despite more experience managing economies than trading them, Dujovne and his partners at Tenac have succeeded in building a 5+ year track record with no down years and an annualized rate of 17.18% net of fees, focusing mostly on sovereign and corporate debt of emerging market countries. In the interview we discuss how global macro feeds portfolio construction, the important factors when analyzing individual emerging markets, and how understanding large international organizations like the IMF is crucial to predicting outcomes in EM. This episode is brought to you by Fintool, a financial copilot tailored for institutional investors. Fintool leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover financial insights beyond the reach of timely human analysis. From summarizing extensive annual reports to computing numbers and unearthing new insights by comparing years of filings, Fintool equips institutional investors like Janus Henderson, First Manhattan and companies like PWC. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS. Historical performance is included for informational purposes only and should not be relied on as being indicative of results that will be achieved by the Fund. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. Differences in the timing of the transactions, capital contributions or withdrawals, and market conditions prevailing at the time of the investment will lead to different results. Performance shown is for the stated time period only. Performance is presented net of fees and expenses and assumes the reinvestment of income and earnings. The net figures reflect the deduction of management fees (1.5%) and incentive fees (15%). BENCHMARKS. The performance of the Fund is shown as compared to indices. Broad-based securities indices are unmanaged and are not subject to fees and expenses typically associated with investment funds. Investments cannot be made directly in a broad-based securities index. The benchmark is provided for reference only and does not imply that the Fund will achieve returns, volatility, or other results similar to the benchmark. The composition of a benchmark index does not reflect the way the Fund portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, investment holdings, sectors, correlations, concentrations or tracking error targets, all of which are subject to change over time. Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:29 Fintool Front Roll 02:00 Why is LATAM a Macro Hotbed? 04:11 From Minister of the Treasury to Macro Trader 11:36 Capital Raising in LATAM 16:31 Developing & Communicating Your Investment Process 20:53 Fintool Mid Roll 22:01 The Growth of EM Debt Markets 25:56 Dispersion and Portfolio Management 30:50 Corporate/Quasi Sovereign Debt 34:30 The Events That Move Markets in EM 38:22 Data Integrity Issues in EM 39:28 Vol and Investor Expectations 43:14 Global Spotlight on Argentina 44:57 Unique Requirements of Global Investing 48:16 The Roll of the IMF 54:27 Elections and Prediction Markets 56:58 The Roll of US Financial Conditions 01:01:45 Current Outlook for US Trade Policy 01:03:17 Opportunity Right Now #stocks #economics #economy #recession #bonds #stockmarket #investing #hedgefunds #analyst #Alternatives #Argentina #NicolasDujovne #tenac #emergingmarkets #EMinvesting

Mar 25, 20251h 5m

A Foreclosure Wave Is Coming | Chris Whalen on FHA Mortgage Loans, Tariffs, Bank Valuations, and Payment Companies

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe While Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors is a supporter of many of the Trump administration’s policies, he expects they will cause some significant turbulence in credit and economic markets. Chris explains why he thinks FHA Mortgage foreclosures will rise, and shares his views on tariffs, bank stocks, and payment companies. Recorded on March 20, 2025. Second edition of Chris Whalen’s “Inflated”: https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Inflated%3A+Money%2C+Debt+and+the+American+Dream%2C+2nd+Edition-p-9781394285716 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://x.com/rcwhalen Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Mar 23, 20251h 4m

The Fed's Rate Cutting Cycle Is Already Over | Jim Bianco on March Fed Meeting, Trump Tariffs, and 4/5/6 Markets

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack Jim Bianco returns to Monetary Matters to break down the March Federal Reserve meeting. He explains why he thinks tariffs are unlikely to cause a recession and share his current asset allocation outlook. Recorded the afternoon of March 19, 2025. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Mar 20, 20251h 11m

Volatility Markets Are Complacent | Kris Sidial on Tariff Risk to Stocks, Dispersion Trade, and Margin Risk

Kris Sidial, co-CIO of The Ambrus Group, returns to Monetary Matters to share his decidedly bearish view of the U.S. stock market. Kris argues that volatility markets are not sufficiently pricing in the risks of President Trump’s economic policy, and if that if anything, vol traders are expecting a bounce and laying off hedges rather than buying them. Kris also explains the dispersion trade, vol selling in ETFs, index arb, vanna & volga, VVIX, and margin risk. Recorded on March 18, 2025. Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://x.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Mar 19, 202554 min

Geopolitical Uncertainty is Freezing Private Capital | John Bowman of CAIA

This episode is brought to you by Fintool. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process with Fintool: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm John Bowman, CEO of CAIA Association, the Association of Chartered Alternative Investment Analysts, joins Jack Farley on a special crossover episode of Monetary Matters and Other People’s Money to discuss the biggest trends in alternative investments. Bowman explains how Tariff uncertainty and other geopolitical factors might be the #1 factor that led to last year’s drop in PE assets, why he believes there is still another shoe to drop in private credit, and that hedge funds are coming back into vogue with alternatives investors. This episode is brought to you by Fintool, a financial copilot tailored for institutional investors. Fintool leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover financial insights beyond the reach of timely human analysis. From summarizing extensive annual reports to computing numbers and unearthing new insights by comparing years of filings, Fintool equips institutional investors like Janus Henderson, First Manhattan and companies like PWC. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm Follow John Bowman on X: https://x.com/BowmanJohnL Follow CAIA on X: https://x.com/CAIAAssociation Follow Fintool on Twitter https://x.com/fintoolx Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod

Mar 18, 20251h 19m

“It’s All About Credit” | James Aitken on Widening Credit Spreads & Falling U.S. Stocks, Tariff-Induced Slowdown & Trade Disruption, Chinese & European Stocks, and Private Credit

This episode is brought to you by Fintool. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process with Fintool: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm James Aitken of Aitken Advisors is one of the world’s most respected investment minds. He joins Monetary Matters to share his view that tariffs - and in particular announced reciprocal tariffs - from the Trump administration are set to slow economic growth in the U.S. from 5% to around 3%, and that accordingly the high-growth environment wherein credit and equities performed extremely well is likely set to give way to a lower-growth environment which will be more bumpy for credit and stocks. Aitken evaluates the current risk-reward in European and Chinese equities, and also shares his analysis of the situation in private credit. Recorded March 14, 2025. Follow James Aitken on Twitter https://x.com/AitkenAdvisors Follow Fintool on Twitter https://x.com/fintoolx Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Mar 16, 20251h 48m

Tariffs Unlikely To Derail Strong Economy—But Market Risk Has Risen | Prometheus Macro’s Aahan Menon

Recorded on March 13, 2025. Follow Aahan Menon on Twitter https://x.com/AahanPrometheus Follow Prometheus Macro on Twitter https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Mar 14, 20251h 14m

The Liquidity Squeeze | Michael Howell On Funding Pressures, China’s Gold Yuan Devaluation, and Trump Admin’s Tariff Endgame

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Monetary Matters to share his view on how global liquidity is impacting asset markets. While falling fixed income volatility and a declining dollar should buoy liquidity, Howell notes a distinct fall in liquidity momentum from central banks and worries that there could be a liquidity squeeze unless central banks inject more liquidity. He touches on various topics including the PBOC’s new mechanism, gold, and SOFR/EFFR spreads. Recorded on March 10, 2025. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://x.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Crossborder Substack https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Mar 12, 20251h 20m

The Specialist Hedge Fund That Has Crushed the S&P 500 | Moez Kassam of Anson Funds

This episode is brought to you by Fintool. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process with Fintool: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm Toronto may be the financial capital of Canada but compared to NYC or London it does not quite have the same cachet for top hedge fund managers. This might be why Moez Kassam, CIO and Founder of Anson Funds, has flown under the radar of many keeping track of the industry’s titans while growing Anson Funds to over $2b in assets under management and putting together a track record of 15% annualized returns since inception in 2007. Known as a short selling specialist, Kassam shares his views on the art of shorting, dives into some of the other differentiated strategies Anson employs and explains how he attracts top talent to Toronto. This episode is brought to you by Fintool, a financial copilot tailored for institutional investors. Fintool leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to discover financial insights beyond the reach of timely human analysis. From summarizing extensive annual reports to computing numbers and unearthing new insights by comparing years of filings, Fintool equips institutional investors like Janus Henderson, First Manhattan and companies like PWC. Learn more about how you can add AI to your investment process: https://fintool.com/?utm_source=the_opm Follow Moez Kassam on X: https://x.com/MunchingMoez Follow Anson Funds on X: https://x.com/AnsonGroupFunds Follow Max Wiethe on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod

Mar 11, 202556 min