Lagniappe

While times may feel unsteady and unpredictable, if you take a look through history, you’ll see these very market fluctuations repeated, time and time again. The tricky part is convincing your psyche to invest during a downtime when the market’s on sale. So how can you override your human instinct to hoard cash in a downturn? And when will there be resources available to prevent ourselves from acting on less than financially favorable inclinations? This week, Doug and Greg discuss their point of view on today’s crazy markets, the long-term implications of rising interest rates, why it’s best to avoid anxiety over unpredictability, and how to retrain your psyche to make smarter financial decisions. Key Takeaways [00:17] - An intro to this episode, the joys of family vacations, and Doug’s guide to wine tasting in Sonoma. [09:07] - Why New Orleans is a great place to be. [13:10] - How Greg and Doug view today's markets, who can best take advantage of the volatility, and how to remove psychological blocks and invest in a downturn. [21:16] - How Verdad Capital and others are forcibly encouraging investors to buy-in when a crisis hits. [25:32] - Greg and Doug’s closing thoughts. Quotes [14:13] - “Our job really as portfolio managers and as advisors is to try to put context in these types of situations for clients that these are normal types of market events. Historically, if you look at the stock market from 1980 to present you get an intra-year decline.” ~ Greg Stokes [17:50] - “The rise in interest rates has afforded people the ability to not be as aggressive as they had to be maybe last year or the year before to achieve a reasonable rate of return.” ~ Doug Stokes [20:02] - “The sort of psychological issue is that when things go on sale in the stock and bond markets, it’s really hard to take advantage of that because the human aspect of investing is that things are going to continue to get worse, which they might, but it really is a good opportunity if you look at it through the lens of the long-term, you try to separate your natural psychology from the situation.” ~ Greg Stokes Links Farmstead Restaurant Ledson Winery & Vineyards Castello di Amorosa Gundlach Bundschu Zichichi Wines Devin Booker French Quarter Fest Zurich Classic Waste Management Phoenix Open Jazz Fest Hogs For The Cause Mr. John’s Steakhouse The French Laundry S&P 500 Intra-year Declines and Total Returns 1980 to 2021: Chart Nick Murray Verdad Meb Faber Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Bull or bear? Always the question and (almost) always difficult to answer. Especially in 2022. Between the Russia-Ukraine invasion, rising interest rates, and spiked inflation, the markets have been up and down. And it’s incredibly difficult to take a hint from what’s happening when deciding whether to invest or play it safe. Given today’s turmoil, it’s important to consider what’s worked in crisis markets of the past and what indicators signal it’s time to “go long” with your investments. CNN, Vanguard, and BlackRock have different ideas on where things are headed, short-term and long-term. But is it always best to trust the investor experts? And if so, which experts should you trust? This week, Doug and Greg discuss what rising fear and uncertainty mean for today’s tricky markets, why now is the best time to look overseas for property purchases, how to manage rising inflation, and why the best investors don’t always dish out the best financial advice. Key Takeaways [00:18] - Why a rise in general fear is a contrarian indicator for today’s financial markets. [09:34] - Why it’s important to remain cautious about rising inflation. [11:48] - How the markets have evolved and what the experts think about prospective returns. [16:54] - Why now is the best time to explore international real estate. [21:30] - Why rising interest rates are a positive thing for investors. Quotes [02:48] - “It’s counterintuitive to buy when there’s fear and panic, but that really is the best time to buy if you look at history.” ~ Greg Stokes [06:13] - “Generally speaking, being a human being is not something that helps you in terms of emotions from an investment standpoint. Typically, if you look back at history, if the crowd is doing something, either buying or selling at a high clip, it’s usually a contrarian indicator one way or another.” ~ Greg Stokes [12:39] - “It’s not really a valuation-driven sentiment change in terms of just general markets. I think rising interest rates, rising inflation is really the concern here while a year ago it was more about, can companies really grow into the valuations they’re receiving?” ~ Doug Stokes Links CNN’s Fear & Greed Index When Fear Runs High, Time To Buy? Charlie Bilello Crisis Investing: How To Maximize Returns During Market Panics Ken Fisher Always Buy High Uncertainty. Certainty In the Stock Market Is Very Expensive. Vanguard Market Perspectives: February 2022 BlackRock Capital Market Assumptions Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Despite dealing with the aftermath of a global pandemic, an unpredictable stock market, and record-breaking inflation, life in 2022 may not be as bad as you think it is. 150 years ago, the richest people in America didn’t have easy access to basic commodities like air conditioning and ice, not to mention apps that deliver food and streaming services playing everything you can imagine. Rising interest rates, higher mortgage payments, and a low inventory can make it feel like a crazy time to be buying a house right now. But real estate has more value than just a percentage point and, like all major decisions in life, there are several factors at play when deciding to buy a home. This week, Doug and Greg discuss why it’s easier to stay optimistic than you might think, the best way to manage client expectations regardless of the times we’re living in, and why rising interest rates don’t necessarily throw a wrench in your real estate plans. Key Takeaways [00:59] - Why there’s a lot to be optimistic about and the key to managing expectations in the stock market and in life. [10:18] - How the rise of interest rates and mortgage payments will impact real estate. [23:33] - Who Doug and Greg bet on at the Masters. Quotes [09:27] - “The last thing that I would want to do is plan on some historical rate of return that makes the numbers look fabulous and then way undershoot that, for one reason or another. I think it’s really good from a psychological standpoint to maintain those reasonable expectations that returns are going to be more muted in the future and if you beat them then that’s great.” ~ Greg Stokes [10:06] - “You could end up in the same exact place, but if you have the expectations of higher outcomes at the outset then you’re disappointed versus ecstatic.” ~ Doug Stokes [12:40] - “I think we’re in a situation where theoretically we could have a rise in mortgage rates like we’re experiencing in the first half of 2022, coinciding with either a steady price of homes or even a continued increase of the value of homes, which would be extremely interesting.” ~ Doug Stokes Links Surprise, Shock, and Uncertainty Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know: And Many Others You Will Find Interesting Growth Without Goals Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time? The increase in 30-year fixed mortgage rates Caesars Sportsbook Tiger Woods Jon Rahm Sergio Garcia Bryson DeChambeau Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

If the past few months have reminded us of anything, it’s that market volatility is constant and unpredictable. With the spread of information accelerating faster than ever, global volatility now matches that of the market in (seemingly) real-time. So it’s no surprise that such upheaval takes a toll on our psyche as investors. But if there’s one thing we can predict, it’s that volatility isn’t going anywhere and we have to prepare for it, financially and mentally. Although it sounds like an oxymoron, there are ways to prepare for the unpredictable. And there are ways to protect yourself psychologically, even if those protections go against popular financial advice. This week, Doug and Greg discuss how to combat the psychological strain of volatile markets, why the market reacts the way it does to world disaster, and what the yield curve tells us about a recession in 2022. Key Takeaways [00:21] - Why taking time to travel (with your spouse) is important. [06:50] - Why major world downturns have a positive impact on the market. [11:29] - How to deal with “flash crashes” and overall market volatility psychologically. [17:26] - What the yield curve means for an upcoming recession. Quotes [14:38] - “The level of volatility and equities just improves the use case for direct indexing and custom indexing. Basically what that means is instead of owning the S & P 500, you own the component parts.” ~ Doug Stokes [15:48] - “For people that do potentially need a portion of their assets, from a psychological standpoint those assets over a defined period of time shouldn’t be invested in the markets. Because if you have your next month’s living needs in the market and you’re watching this kind of thing it can really be difficult from a psychological standpoint.” ~ Greg Stokes [23:37] - “The general rule here is, you anticipate recessions are going to occur over a lifetime, multiple recessions, and you design a portfolio in accordance with that sort of logic.” ~ Doug Stokes Links Covid lethality trends How Americans spend their lives Why travel is the best way to spend money The worst thing you can spend money on Why keeping cash is good for your psychology Yield curve inversion explained (part I) Yield curve inversion explained (part II) Yield curve inversion explained (part III) Yield curve inversion explained (part IV) Alibaba JD.com Stokes Family Office: April 2020 Market Update feat. Patrick O’Shaughnessy Understanding Inflation and Countercyclical Indexing with Cullen Roche Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

With America more divided than ever before, few things have the power to bring together both sides of the political spectrum. The Opportunity Zone program is one of those rarities specially designed to satisfy political opposites. Not to mention, dramatically improving the community around us. But some businesses and individuals are hesitant about holding an investment for 10 years, or maybe they only remember the policy’s flawed origin story. An expert on all things Opportunity Zones, Joe Truhe from Jefferson Capital Partners is here to demystify the program’s complexities and core benefits. In this episode, Joe talks with Doug and Greg about the benefits – both financial and humanitarian – of the Opportunity Zone program, including how the program manages to merge oppositional thinking, how OZs work in practice, and why the program fits perfectly within Jefferson Capital’s core strategy. Key Takeaways [00:52] - What are Opportunity Zones? [02:30] - How the Opportunity Zone program marries both sides of the political spectrum and how it actually works in practice. [08:31] - How individuals can use Opportunity Zones to invest in a business. [11:27] - Why real estate investment took off in Opportunity Zones and what future law changes mean for current OZ investments. [15:27] - Why the 10-year hold is a drawback for many. [17:15] - What happens when you sell a company within that 10-year window. [20:18] - The real financial benefits of the Opportunity Zone program. [27:07] - How the Opportunity Zone program fits within Jefferson Capital’s core strategy. Quotes [02:20] - “The Opportunity Zone program is designed to get both sides of the political landscape to join on economic development in otherwise underserved communities.” ~ Joe Truhe [28:49] - “These are times of opportunity for us, no pun intended, but you can sort of lean into the chaos and grab market share with private investment where you may not be able to in a public company. That’s the illiquidity trade-off.” ~ Joe Truhe Links Joe Truhe Jefferson Capital Partners Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

If there’s one industry that’s been uprooted since March 2020, it’s live entertainment. Just as leaders within tourism and hospitality have struggled to regain ground, runners of festivals and owners of live theaters have unleashed a wheelhouse of creativity just to stay afloat and continue serving the communities and artists around them. In this episode, Greg and Doug talk with Becker Hall, CEO of Hogs For The Cause, and Barrett Cooper, COO of ERG Enterprises. Although Becker manages the unpredictability of live outdoor events and Barrett the difficult task of positioning The Orpheum as a go-to experience, they’ve both developed unique ways to offset inflation, navigate a growing labor shortage, and encourage consumers to leave their living rooms for an in-person escape. Greg and Doug talk with Becker and Barrett about staying afloat during a global pandemic, navigating an unpredictable return to live events, what’s necessary to survive in the live entertainment business, and what audiences crave now more than ever. Key Takeaways [00:39] - What it’s like running a festival in 2022. [02:22] - The profit breakdown and how Becker offsets the cost of inflation. [04:06] - How entertainment venues like The Orpheum manage to stay afloat. [04:41] - How Becker and Barrett find creative ways to increase their revenue streams and offset inflation. [08:01] - The impact that 2020 federal stimulus programs had on Barrett and Becker’s businesses. [12:57] - Why there’s a massive labor supply gap. [16:53] - Navigating the rising cost of musicians. [22:07] - What it’s like operating an outdoor event in a subtropical climate. [27:54] - How Barrett positions The Orpheum as the go-to theater for up-and-coming artists. [31:39] - How Barrett has capitalized on a new attraction to entice audiences, improve customer experience, and bolster The Orpheum’s revenue streams. Quotes [01:58] - “I will tell you, if you want to put on a music festival, you better be making money somewhere, because it’s usually a loss leader for people and some kind of tax break that brings in some goodwill for the community and the environment doing it.” ~ Becker Hall [05:25] - “Just because we’re a non-profit or maybe just a private event, we still think like any privately-traded company. We’re focused on growth and you’ve got to be focused on growth year over year knowing that a lot of the expenses are going to pile up and get higher and higher.” ~ Becker Hall [20:40] - “If we can focus on that experience, that moment of escape, that’s what people I think really demand right now; a moment separate from all the static and noise of the world.” ~ Barrett Cooper [32:52] - “Coming out of COVID, again, it’s the whole escape from reality, lose yourself in something beyond just a good cocktail. It’s a good cocktail plus a story and that’s what we’re trying to sell.” ~ Barrett Cooper Links Becker Hall Barrett Cooper Hogs For The Cause ERG Enterprises The Orpheum Theater French Quarter Festival New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival AEG Live Nation Jon Batiste The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Mardi Gras Voice of the Wetlands Festival Dr. John Saenger Theatre The Fillmore Winter Circle Productions Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a humanitarian crisis that’s gripped the globe. While difficult to comprehend on a human level, the economic impact of a widespread European conflict can be equally as complicated to unpack. From inflation to rising gas prices to seemingly unpredictable markets, the state of our economy is enough to make most panic. Luckily, understanding why the Russian-Ukraine conflict has increased inflation and what our government is doing to combat rising costs can dissolve some of that panic. This week, Doug and Greg discuss the recent market volatility and ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unpacking why globalization impacts interest rates, the surefire way to combat market volatility, and why it’s pointless to panic about an imminent economic recession. Key Takeaways [00:39] - What Doug thinks about today’s volatile market. [07:35] - Why a recession may be on the horizon. [10:31] - How much of inflation is demand-driven versus supply-driven. [11:07] - How projections on the war in Ukraine have shifted and how inflation and supply chain issues will continue to impact developing countries. [15:41] - How investors should respond to volatility. [17:10] - Why today’s volatility highlights the importance of diversification. [19:37] - Why you shouldn’t panic about an imminent recession. Quotes [09:29] - “The silver lining here is that – and we talked about this on a prior podcast – households are in fantastic shape and debt service payments, specifically mortgage as a percentage of disposable income, were at all-time lows before rates crept up.” ~ Doug Stokes [15:49] - “The range of outcomes is so wide here that I think diversification is the ultimate winner in this sort of framework.” ~ Doug Stokes [17:47] - “Oil and commodities really have been vindicated as an asset class the last couple years and it really goes to show the importance of diversification. Because the human instinct is to go with what’s worked in the past and that absolutely has not worked in the past but it’s working like magic this year.” ~ Greg Stokes Links Cullen Roche Twitter Bill McBride Derek Thompson Chevron Exxon Lemonade Datadog Upstart Peleton Ben Carlson Morgan Housel The Psychology of Money Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Peter Ricchiuti, Founder and Director of Burkenroad Reports. Peter started Tulane’s nationally acclaimed student stock research program Burkenroad in 1993. Since then, he has mentored hundreds of students about underpriced and overlooked stocks in southern states. Before that, Peter also served as the Chief Investment Officer for the state of Louisiana. Peter talks with Doug and Greg about overlooked stocks, the impact of the pandemic on the decline in birth rate, and trends in the markets of different states, especially New Orleans. Key Takeaways [03:30] - Stock Under The Rocks. [04:40] - The Burkenroad Mutual Fund. [07:46] - Peter’s insights on the future of the markets. [09:01] - How COVID sped up the progress of inflation. [15:56] - What’s the Baltic Dry Index? [17:06] - What happens after an inverted deal curve? [22:05] - How big is the impact of the top six companies? [24:16] - Why you should not focus on the market-cap-weighted index. [25:41] - Do oil companies affect other entities in the market? [28:00] - Can Louisiana be a renewable state? [32:35] - Pumping money into startups in New Orleans. Quotes [20:31] - “I think one of the big problems we have in the country is tremendous income, inequality, wealth inequality, economic opportunity inequality. And I think that's leading to a couple of big trends.” - Peter Ricchiuti [22:55] - “Indexing in other asset class, small-cap, mid-cap stocks, international, they just look flat out more inviting. On the international side, I think the average American has 90% to 95% of their money domestically. And yet, 50% of all stocks are actually non-US. And these countries are growing faster.” - Peter Ricchiuti Links Peter Ricchiuti Burkenroad Reports Tulane University Freeman School of Business Stocks Under Rocks: How to Uncover Overlooked, Profitable Market Opportunities by Peter Ricchiuti Hancock Whitney Bank First Horizon Bank (formerly Iberia Bank) CARES Act Charles Ponzi Baltic Dry Index Origin Bank Wall Street Journal S&P 500 Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Argentina just struck a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to give the South American country some “breathing space” for the next few years to pay off debt. From an Argentinian expert’s perspective, how is it looking for the economy and more importantly, to its people? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Santiago Solanet, Senior Investment Analyst at BlackTORO Global Investments. Santiago is known for monitoring and analyzing the local and global economic situation of the Argentinians. Santiago talks with Doug and Greg about understanding Argentinian markets—from the recent IMF agreement to peso depreciation to its political environment. Key Takeaways [00:41] - Beyond the markets: the life and rich culture of Argentina. [03:51] - Peso currency depreciation. [08:55] - What's it like to do business in Argentina? [11:19] - Insights on the effect of war with the UK, soybean prices, and inflation. [15:59] - How does a country turn around a 50% year-over-year inflation? [21:00] - How's 2023 looking for the Argentinian economy? [24:16] - A look at Argentina’s labor market performance. [33:13] - Vista plans with cash flow. [37:13] - Exploring Argentinian cuisine. Quotes [06:47] - “The ‘most’ problem is, with every month that passes, with your salary, you can buy less and less goods as compared to the previous months. In Argentina, every six months, we have a compensation—we actualize the salary, but we always run it back against inflation.” - Santiago Solanet [15:58] - “In my opinion, we need a change in the government, change of power, because, in this government, we don’t have trust or confidence or credibility. You're not going to solve anything because you might say, well, we are going to change the economy plan, we are going to have lower taxes—but the markets, they don’t believe that.” - Santiago Solanet [29:23] - “I think there are good opportunities in Argentina. We have to be very picky. There are companies that have huge problems that are too risky.” - Santiago Solanet Links Santiago Solanet on LinkedIn BlackTORO VISTA Argentina strikes breakthrough deal with IMF in $45 bln debt talks International Monetary Fund (IMF) Central Puerto ConocoPhillips Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Jamie Catherwood, Client Portfolio Associate at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. Jamie has a deep fascination with and expertise in finance history. Throughout the years, he’s shared finance content that goes in-depth to help investors make better and more evidence-based financial decisions. Jamie talks with Doug and Greg about the importance of financial history in strategizing portfolios, and insights on innovation entering deep value territory. Key Takeaways [02:30] - Parallels between the current market and the past. [05:01] - What does history tell us about the change in behavior of retail investors? [07:49] - What's the Kindleberget Minsky Cycle? [09:06] - The Price Conviction Paradox. [12:35] - The Golden Age of Fraud [ 13:57] - Historical investment cycles. [17:35] - Where can the market go wrong? [23:35] - Are innovation stocks in deep value territory? [26:25] - What is the bubble triangle? Quotes [33:27] - “I think that the government has some role in markets, but obviously too much of a presence can kind of stifle innovation. Too much regulation can hurt markets, but I think there definitely needs to be some level of regulation because otherwise, frauds would be able to persist with kind of no threat from anyone stepping in.” - Jamie Catherwood [39:52] - “Once you read enough about financial history and you kind of see all these crazy bubbles, it kind of gives you more perspective and makes you step back and say, ‘Is this going to be one of those? And it makes it easier to not get swept up in the next hot thing.” - Jamie Catherwood Links Jamie Catherwood on LinkedIn @InvestorAmnesia Price Conviction Paradox by Jamie Catherwood Nasdaq 100 Peloton Russell 1000 James Chanos | Yale School of Management Wall Street power player: We're incentivized to cheat A Minsky-Kindleberger Perspective on the Financial Crisis Tesla Ark Innovation ETF Innovation Stocks Are Not in A Bubble: We Believe They Are in Deep Value Territory by Catherine Wood Wirecard Target Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles by John Turner and William Quinn GameStop Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Cullen Roche, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Discipline Funds. Aside from advocating for rebalancing portfolios with low-fee, tax-efficient funds, Cullen also writes about the macroeconomy and investing strategies through his blog, Pragmatic Capitalism. Cullen also advises on the overall impact of inflation in the current market. Cullen talks with Doug and Greg about inflation, economic cycles, and countercyclical indexing with ETFs. Key Takeaways [00:47] - What causes inflation? [03:02] - How COVID impacted the direction of inflation. [07:08] - Bank reserves vs. direct payments to individuals. [09:40] - Has the inflation already peaked? [13:35] - Are inflation and inflation rates correlated? [20:16] - Hyperproductivity in the US economy. [23:31] - How inflation negatively impacts everybody. [26:40] - The midterm elections and market predictions. [34:06] - Cullen’s insights on portfolio allocation. [39:25] - Is global market investing a good idea? [44:12] - What is Discipline Funds ETF? [50:11] - How is Disciplines Fund ETF designed to last long term? Quotes [20:20] - “The thing about deflation is it tends to occur, especially the really traumatic ones, inside of debt bubbles like the housing crisis. The thing that made that so frightening was that you had balance sheets collapsing from debt deflation, and that is really traumatic because it's the exact opposite of money printing — it's money destruction. And that is a very unnatural process inside of any long-term economic period.” - @cullenroche [38:52] - “A lot of people get in trouble because they get overly confident about potential outcomes and they start saying, ‘Oh, well, hyperinflation is coming, the government's ruining everything, so I need to just own nothing but Bitcoin.’ And those sorts of maximalist positions can be really damaging because if you're wrong, your outcome is asymmetric in a really potentially catastrophic way.” - @cullenroche [41:59] - “I'm not just an advocate of diversifying globally. I'm actually an advocate of diversifying globally based on what the actual full market capitalization is.” - @cullenroche Links Cullen Roche on Twitter Cullen Roche on LinkedIn Orcam Financial Group, LLC Pragmatic Capitalism Discipline Funds Everything You Need To Know About Inflation by Cullen Roche Further Evidence on Greenspan’s Conundrum Joe Manchin John Bogle Tesla Vanguard ETFs S&P 500 Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the effect of electoral party systems and politics on the markets, and the promising investment opportunities in New Orleans. Key Takeaways [00:42] - How do politics affect the markets? [05:11] - How the market behaves amid political uncertainties. [07:59] - Why markets don’t like uncertainties. [12:06] - Current living conditions in New Orleans. [18:03] - Promising investment opportunities in New Orlean. Quotes [03:48] - “That's the beauty of the American system, right? There are always ebbs and flows between one party or another, or one prevailing ideology or another. It's a good or a bad thing politically, but generally, a moderation between one party or the other is good in my opinion.” - Doug Stokes [07:59] - “Markets don't like surprises. For example, we all saw that in March of 2020, when the world was coming to an end—the stock prices were falling off a cliff because there was so much uncertainty.” - Greg Stokes Links Some Early Clues About How The Midterms Will Go | FiveThirtyEight Georgia Potential November Showdowns: They're Already Close, Quinnipiac University Georgia Poll Finds; Only 25% Are Very Confident In Accurate 2022 Election Count Ken Fisher Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Doug and Greg talk about why the cure to inflation is inflation, and why US stocks continue to outperform international stocks. Key Takeaways [00:28] - 2022 kicks off with a consumer price rise. [05:31] - Why Doug believes the Federal Reserve is very market-facing. [09:49] - The cure to inflation is inflation. [12:13] - Efficient automobiles: from gasoline to electric. [13:04] - What is ESG investing? [14:12] - The rule of the commodity market. [15:50] - What's a commodity supercycle? [16:54] - Who's the biggest performer in recent inflation? [18:13] - Why is it important to diversify? [20:44] - Annualized return from the US compared to international countries. [23:58] - Why the market and tax administration is a great factor in US relocation. [27:48] - Why the state of California tops most rankings. Quotes [14:32] - “In 2012, emerging markets were up and commodities were down. In 2013, small-cap US stocks were up big and emerging markets were down. The whole idea behind this is it's important to stay diversified and not put all of your eggs in one basket.” - Greg Stokes [19:16] - “It's important, number one, to diversify because nobody knows what's going to be the best performer over any given period of time. And just because it's the best performer one year doesn't mean it's going to be the best performer the next year.” - Greg Stokes Links U.S. Inflation Hit 7% in December, Fastest Pace Since 1982 | Wall Street Journal Jerome Powell 2018 Doesn’t Prove Rate Hikes Are Bad for Stocks | Fisher Investments Inflation in Time & Inconvenience by Ben Carlson | A Wealth of Common Sense Markets That Are Definitely NOT In a Bubble by Ben Carlson | A Wealth of Common Sense WisdomTree Apple S&P 500 Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this episode, Doug and Greg discuss everything you need to know about the blockchain, cryptocurrency, and digital assets—its speculative market, its stance against looming inflation, and its promise to be the currency of the future. Key Takeaways [00:42] - The triple threat of policy tightening. [02:05] - Insights on unemployment during COVID. [06:04] - The need for focusing on continued ability to grow amid the pandemic. [07:40] - What transpired in the downfall of Peloton? [10:38] - Why old-world, bottom-up investing may be the way to go. [13:04] - Are bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies hedged against inflation? [16:08] - Should you invest in blockchain stocks? [17:32] - What's promising about blockchain? [18:04] - How blockchain-based companies work. [19:37] - Cryptocurrency as fiat money. [21:04] - What's the future for digital assets and crypto? Quotes [04:15] - “In the last 10 years, I would imagine that people are hitting their retirement objectives earlier than they were planning on if they were doing any planning, just because of the growth in markets.” - Doug Stokes [11:18] - “That particular investment style— the bottom-up, buying earnings, buying companies that have consistent earnings —was really not in favor until the last 18 months or the last seven to 10 years. But it has definitely come into favor recently.” - Greg Stokes [14:27] - “We can see on both sides that when things are not going well in markets in general, I think people are just dumping everything. And instead of viewing that as sort of a hedge on overreaching government and inflation, it's basically just a complete speculative bed right now.” - Doug Stokes Links Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 14-15, 2021 December jobs report: Payrolls rise by 199,000 as the unemployment rate falls to 3.9% CARES Act NASDAQ Teladoc Peloton Lemonade DocuSign Roku Bitcoin Netscape Stanford MBA programs Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the rate hiking cycle as we enter 2022, the truth about debt and the affordability of housing, the impact of monopoly capitalism, and the new business investor mindset amid a pandemic. Key Takeaways [00:55] - Ken Fisher’s insights on the rate hiking cycle of 2022. [03:51] - There is no rule of thumb in markets. [06:29] - Debt and affordability in housing. [08:25] - How Amazon remains on top. [09:47] - How the smallest Airpods became as big as all of Tesla. [14:33] - The “COVID is airborne” newsbreak and its market implications. [18:31] - How to do business as usual amid COVID. [21:11] - The impact that relatively safety has had on society. [24:44] - Why new parents should opt for automated savings. Quotes [03:51] - “There is really no rule of thumb in markets. If you think about it, do you really think that the collective knowledge of the millions and millions of investors that are participating in markets are not aware that we're in a rate hiking cycle now, or at least entering one? There's just so much going on in the markets beyond just one of these particular narratives that drive prices.” - Doug Stokes [10:55] - “In terms of Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook, their size and their company have an ingrained nature in our lives─I don't see that as a negative. And I don't see them as respective monopolies, as purely anti-competitive. I think they've improved our lives in crazy ways. And I think they still continue to do so.” - Doug Stokes [19:38] - “A lot of it is going to come from leadership. The CDC just came out and said quarantine, if you're exposed or have COVID, is five days now, down from 10. In the midst of an Omicron wave, I think that the signal the government is sending, which I think is the right signal, is that we need to start working on the next phase of this getting back to, nearly, or 100% of what previous life was like.” - Doug Stokes Links 2018 Doesn’t Prove Rate Hikes Are Bad for Stocks | FisherInvestments S&P500 @MorganHousel on Twitter Scott Galloway Amazon Apple Tesla Netflix Scott Gottlieb The psychology of protecting the UK public against external threat: COVID-19 and the Blitz compared Sean Payton Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Investors’ decisions are mostly based on financial predictions made by so-called experts. So, when the news broke that we were about to enter a pandemic, investors and advisors were in shock. How do investors move forward when modern society is suddenly afflicted by an uncontrollable peril like COVID-19? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the risks of poor financial forecasting, the truth about market corrections, and the true indicators for smart investing practices. Key Takeaways [02:03] - Why is forecasting in finance becoming a nightmare? [03:47] - What forecasts and projections really tell you. [05:47] - Omicron’s impact. [09:52] - How COVID-19 has been affecting investors’ and advisors’ daily lives. [12:30] - Why is it impossible to forecast in finance? [15:29] - Why the bond market is always the best guide. [17:11] - Two factors that affect inflation. [18:36] - Why corrections are normal. [25:10] - How forecasting works in sports. Quotes [10:26] - “This has been such a shock to society, especially a society that's been used to general comfort throughout life. I think if this would have happened 100 or 200 years ago, people would have just dealt with it and moved on. But now we're basically protected from most dangers in the world and modern society. And so having an uncontrollable danger like this is a complete shock to the system, and I think it's going to take time to come out of it. And I'm hopeful sooner rather than later.” - Doug Stokes [12:35] - “It's impossible to forecast what's going to happen in the future. We were in the trenches dealing with human psychology and individuals that were dealing with some very stressful situations in March of 2020, and nobody could've forecasted that we were going to run into a pandemic.” - Greg Stokes [22:17] - “As an investor, if you can't take the 10% or maybe even 20% correction in stocks─because it's going to happen statistically once every year with 10% and once every six years at 20%─then what's your alternative?” - Doug Stokes Links How bad are Wall Street forecasts? Really bad by Morgan Housel | USAToday Warren Buffett NFL US Senator Joe Manchin S&P500 @fivethirtyeight on Twitter New York Times Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts LagniappePodcast.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Lagniappe is a new podcast hosted by Greg Stokes and Doug Stokes, brothers and partners in Stokes Family Office, a New Orleans wealth management firm. Lagniappe is a word derived from the South American Spanish phrase la yapa, which means “a little something extra”. Although this is an old custom, it is still widely practiced in Louisiana. We created this podcast to be a little something extra for our listeners, friends, and clients. We want to share some of our passions and insights about life in New Orleans, as well as how we run our business, manage portfolios, and thoughts about what’s going on in the world of finance and financial planning. We also have some great guests lined up to talk about their specific areas of expertise. Join us each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and more. Our first episode drops in January 2022. Subscribe now, wherever you listen to podcasts. Links Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office