Lagniappe

As we head into Labor Day weekend, we fittingly look at the latest jobs report and the revised GDP numbers. We’ll also think location, location, location as we investigate the areas that are winning and losing the migration/real estate race. Finally, we’ll review some of our favorite COVID-era IPOs and wonder if the euphoria bubble is over for now. Key Takeaways [01:05] - Jobs report and the GDP data revision [06:28] - What does the frozen real estate market mean? [10:15] - Which US areas are winning? Which are losing? [16:16] - Mark Cuban + the right place, right time nature of venture capitalism [19:09] - Has the IPO euphoria window closed for the time being? Links U.S. GDP grew less vigorously than believed in Q2 The labor market is now looser than it was pre-Covid Home price decline from peak in 40 largest US markets Just 1% of U.S. homes have changed hands this year The rental market continues to slow 30 migration winners and losers Mark Cuban has taken a net loss on $20M in Shark Tank investments Traeger: another Pandemic IPO to fall down to earth Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As the Federal Reserve hosts its annual conference out West in Jackson Hole, we’ll take a look at what Jerome Powell said and what they forecasted that they’ll do next. We also discuss how mortgage rates, cash buyers, and new builds are affecting the real estate market. We finish with Humble Dollar’s seven financial superpowers that can help you make, save, invest, and ultimately enjoy money. Key Takeaways [00:20] - Checking in on the Fed’s economic policy symposium [05:18] - Is there pent-up demand for home purchases? [10:15] - Unsurprising news out of Russia [12:16] - Financial Superpowers Links Powell: "It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal” Truflation says we’re currently at 2.56% Richard Moody: Regions Economic Outlook, August 2023 Spreads between treasuries and mortgages are still extremely high Downed Russian jet carried Wagner’s hierarchy including Yevgeny Prigozhin Jonathan Clements’ financial superpowers he says we should all strive to cultivate Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

After Michael Burry (of Big Short fame) made his crash prediction, we decided to go back through the success rate of his predictions. We then go abroad and take a look at the Chinese economy’s contraction, how Britain and our Mississippi neighbors are similar, and more insane sportswashing from Saudi Arabia. We’ll end with data on young homeowners and how coastal areas could take an even bigger real estate market hit. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Fearmongering from Michael Burry + the media [06:30] - What’s going on with the Chinese market? [11:33] - Britain = Mississippi and Neymar = rich [14:41] - The shocking data on how much Americans have saved for retirement [17:39] - Homeownership rate for young people may be better than narrative says [20:43] - Factoring in homeowner’s insurance in places like New Orleans Links Big Short trader Michael Burry bets $1.6 billion on stock market crash Michael Burry’s market predictions: Hits, misses, and the reality Mexico surpassed China as the top U.S. trading partner China suspends report on youth unemployment, which was at a record high Is Britain really as poor as Mississippi? Perks of Neymar’s Saudi Arabia football club deal Here’s what a $5M retirement looks like in the U.S. Young homeownership rate actually comparable to the last four decades Mortgage rates and home prices needed to return to pre-pandemic affordability Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We start this week by looking at perma-bear prognosticators and on the flip side, the excitement and danger behind the hype of the “next big industry”. And staying on winners and losers, we’ll examine UPS drivers, the decline in petroleum interest, and Phil Mickelson’s eye-opening bets. We will, of course, finish with our weekly inflation update. Key Takeaways [00:17] - The doom-and-gloom-ers are back [07:49] - The winners and losers of darling tech companies [12:50] - It’s a good time to be a UPS driver [13:50] - While oil is up, undergrad interest is way down [18:31] - Phil Mickelson’s bets [21:06] - What’s driving the decline in inflation? Links John Hussman predicts extreme bubble in stocks will end in tears WeWork - from $47 billion to $270 million NVDA joins 99 companies with the highest P/S multiple within the 500 largest stocks From Apple to Amazon, the staggering cash-on-hand numbers Full-time UPS drivers will earn $170,000 a year, on average, in new contract Undergrad enrollment in petroleum engineering down 75% over the past 10 years Vanguard Energy ETF Since 1995, US Airfares have increased 29% on a nominal basis but have actually declined 36% after adjusting for inflation New book alleges Phil Mickelson wagered over $1 billion, tried to bet on Ryder Cup US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% today The demand for mortgages has evaporated Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As potentially positive economic factors pile up, we look at the market’s recovery, what’s factored into disinflation, and where we go from here. We’ll also examine two strategic competitions: oil vs electricity and real estate vs. the S&P 500. Key Takeaways [03:17] - The tailwinds of deflation [07:49] - Is our power grid ready for mass EV usage? [12:06] - Oil isn’t going anywhere [15:03] - Real estate investment compared to the S&P 500 Links Sam Ro: Everything looked good last week Barry Sternlicht on the ‘category 5 hurricane’ hitting office buildings 6 things that actually cost less than last year, despite inflation Nick Timiraos: Why the drivers of lower inflation matter WTI Oil up 15% in July Goldman Sachs estimates global oil demand has risen to an all-time high Elon Musk’s latest mission: rev up the electricity industry Jeff Currie: oil’s not going anywhere Nick Maggiulli: The Return on Hassle 2010 acres outside Telluride purchased for $130,000 in 40s listed for $67.75M Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As performance numbers roll in from some of the country’s largest companies, we take a look at how the markets are performing here vs. the World and how America became a global economic leader. We also discuss how the market deals with intra-year volatility and check back in on Taylor Swift and Messi as market impactors. Key Takeaways [02:38] - Breaking down the latest earnings numbers [05:00] - How the markets move intra-year and year over year [07:17] - How the rest of the world is faring in comparison to the U.S. [14:36] - T-Swift makes the Fed’s Beige Book [16:38] - Messi is just like us Links Ro: The stock market has Wall Street on its heels CNN Fear and Greed Index Peter Lynch: “I love volatility” WSJ: Europeans are becoming poorer Annual working hours across the world Federal Reserve credits Taylor Swift with boosting hotel revenues through Eras Tour Lionel Messi at Publix Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, we look at what comes from cooling inflation paired with a resilient economy. With the latest inflation numbers in hand, we’ll examine how shelter impacts the numbers, visualize the staggering amount of empty office space, and try to explain what’s going on at Disney. Key Takeaways [00:18] - The latest inflation report and shelter’s role in the numbers [04:21] - What are the “experts” saying? [10:23] - The general economy vs. inflation [11:37] - The empty office conundrum [15:01] - What’s going on with Disney? [20:04] - Tales from our first jobs Links WSJ: Inflation eased to 3% in June, the lowest since early 2021 Goldman: Fed tightening is in its final innings Flight Rader 24: Busiest day for commercial aviation that we’ve ever tracked Visualizing 1 billion square feet of empty office space The empty downtown - a new normal Boston offers tax breaks to turn empty offices into housing Disney World hasn’t felt this empty in years Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we wrap up the week, we take a look at the June jobs report and how it may affect the calls for recession and the Fed’s actions moving forward. We’ll also dissect movement in the electric vehicle, T-Bill, and housing markets and end with our takes on the great American summer blockbusters. Key Takeaways [00:27] - Looking at the newest jobs report [7:15] - T-Bill yields are at their highest in over two decades [10:34] - The implications of interest rates [11:06] - Teslas and the electric car market overall [16:22] - Could we see sub-3% mortgage rates again? [20:30] - We put on our film critic hats to say what American movies need to do Links Ryan Detrick: Takeaways from the new jobs numbers Mark Zandi: “The June employment report was close to perfect” Current Truflation number T-Bills are at their highest rate in over 20 years CNBC: Least affordable car market in modern history The top-selling EVs in the first half of 2023 in the US WSJ: Rising EV inventory on dealership lots will offer test of future demand Antonelli: the sub 3% 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be the greatest gift ever bestowed on US homeowners. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we trot into the locker room at the halfway point of this year, we examine the competing ideology of calls for a recession vs. declining inflation leading to a bull market. We’ll also look at the economy’s resiliency, how America is viewed across the world, and the unprecedented play of Shohei Ohtani. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Recapping the markets in the first half of this year [11:04] - Positive milestones in the rental markets [13:46] - The historical probability of market returns [14:55] - Shohei Ohtani is a stud [17:00] - How the U.S. is viewed globally [20:26] - Will Mexico be the next big growth market? [24:21] - America’s aging population Links Barry Ritholtz: What Recession? Major milestones in the rental market History says there’s a higher probability of the stock market finishing up 20% than down for the year Ohtani’s 2 HR, 10K night International public opinion of the U.S. remains positive The US population is older than it has ever been Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, we start by discussing the biggest story in the news, the Titan Submersible tragedy. We’ll also look at the transformation of real estate and stock markets and examine the go-forward outlook of the U.S. economy vs. the World. Key Takeaways [00:22] - Recapping the Titan Submersible tragedy [07:25] - The most expensive U.S. cities to buy a house in 1930 [11:42] - The evolution of participation in the stock market [17:57] - Shifting from a historical to a current look at the markets [24:24] - The U.S. economy vs the EU and the UK Links The booming business of trying to reach the ends of the Earth More than 500 migrants presumed dead after shipwreck off Coast of Greece A $49.99 videogame controller could have been running the Titanic submersible 10 things you may not know about the Great Depression The “More Doctors Smoke Camels” ad campaign The number of stocks accounting for the S&P 500's gain by year CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index continues its YoY decline Months without a 52-week high in the market Europe has fallen behind America and the gap is growing Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We discuss the new CPI data, look back at what the experts predicted, and hopefully put the Fed conversation to rest. We’ll also talk about the potential fading of oil demand and ESG importance, and close with our favorite Indiana Jones movies. Key Takeaways [01:00] - Summarizing inflation data and the Fed’s reaction [05:15] - Did experts see this coming? [14:42] - Are we about to see oil demand begin to tamper? [20:49] - Tesla, Bud Light, and the importance of ESG scores/public opinion [25:09] - Our favorite Indiana Jones editions before the release of the new movie Links Fed pauses rate hikes after 15 consecutive months of increases Price changes over the last year (CPI report) Truflation is at 2.34% Charlie Bilello: Did the experts see this coming? No. Robert Kiyosaki (2/12): Giant crash coming Bloomberg: Global oil demand growth will taper off over the next few years Buffett is buying more Occidental Petroleum stock as oil prices near 2023 lows Patrick Bet-David: Phillip Morris received a higher ESG score than Tesla ESG becoming much less of a talking point on earnings calls Ramp Capital: The king of beer has been dethroned Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, we discuss the two biggest stories in not only the sports world but the world at large. We also dive into how people are living and spending their money and what that could mean for a recession as well as give updates on the bond and oil markets and ChatGPT vs the S&P 500. Key Takeaways [00:58] - Messi’s unprecedented move to the MLS [06:10] - The shocking LIV/PGA merger [09:27] - What does it mean that we’re not seeing significant recessionary indicators? [22:43] - Update on the oil markets [24:04] - The importance of who you listen to for financial advice Links Messi sold more PSG jerseys last year ($130m) than total revenue for the top-earning MLS team, LAFC ($116m) Messi turns down $400M per year contract from Saudis Messi's deal includes profit sharing from Apple and Adidas Players shocked and angry after LIV/PGA merger Tiger Woods Was Offered LIV Golf Contract in $700M-$800M Range Nick Timiraos: Goldman Sachs cuts recession probability down to 25% Scott Grannis: The information we have to date strongly suggests that the Fed is done—no more hikes CNN Fear and Greed Index: Extreme Greed Jeffrey Kleintop: Bull markets don't wait for recessions to be over Charlie Bilello: US Bond Market in drawdown for 34 months, by far the longest in history WSJ: This Rally Is All About a Few Star Stocks Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Stokes’ Managing Partners start by revisiting a point from last week’s episode on down and sideways markets and whether they’re bullish or bearish on a go-forward basis. They’ll also join the discourse on the debt ceiling bill, look at the beginnings of what could be the era of AI, and continue the weekly Fed conversation. Key Takeaways [00:28] - Looking at our down and sideways market [03:48] - What happened with the debt ceiling deal? [10:20] - Are we entering the AI bubble era? [21:39] - Our weekly Fed update Links Nick Maggiulli: Why Down & Sideways Markets are Bullish Cullen Roche: CBO estimates debt ceiling deal will reduce the deficit by 0.2% of GDP Market Sentiment: NVDA is trading at 37x its revenue (P/S) and 202x its earnings (P/E) Charlie Bilello: Top May stock returns Charlie Bilello: A look back at extremes price-to-sale ratios in 2020 Mark Zandi: Over 50% experiencing B2B sales declines Bloomberg: Fed Signal for Rate Pause Takes Pressure Off Hot Jobs Report Lawrence McDonald: Processing the duration/interest rate risk situation Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Before we head into the holiday weekend, Greg and Doug Stokes discuss why and how so much has happened over the last two years with very little market movement. They also talk about the possibility of a bull market quietly brewing during this time of consolidation and finish with a recap of Greg’s trip across the pond. Key Takeaways [01:25] - A 10,000-foot view of the market today [07:09] - Truflation vs. what the government says about inflation [08:46] - Is a new bull market quietly underway? [16:43] - Greg’s economic observations of a trip to London Links Michael Green: USA Truflation down below 3% Axios: Cheaper eggs are on the way Jurrien Timmer: How to think like a bull This forgotten Apple Co-Founder left an estimated $75 Billion on the table Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Doug and Greg start this week by noting a pod prediction that came true in regard to the latest CPI/inflation numbers. They also look at current and past S&P 500 top 10 holdings to answer a hypothetical investment question on diversification vs. the big tech stalwarts. Finally, they prepare for the ramifications of the debt ceiling debate, check in on Russia/Ukraine, and look back at the results of the student debt moratorium. Key Takeaways [01:04] - Our weekly inflation check-in [05:10] - Tech’s current hold on the S&P 500 top 10 holdings [13:34] - Apple vs the World [18:54] - Explaining the Debt Ceiling debate [24:01] - An update on the Russia/Ukraine conflict [27:39] - What we now know about the 2020 student debt moratorium Links BI: Inflation continued to cool in April Truflation Conor Sen: Owners’ equivalent rent — the turn-down has begun Luis Gonzali: Top 10 S&P 500 Holdings since 1980 Brian Beal: Apple’s market cap is as large as every UK business combined Brookings: How worried should we be if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted? Russia had only one tank in their Victory Day parade Univ. of Chicago - Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The Stokes Brothers are back this week to discuss their favorite topic, the Federal Reserve. They question the Fed’s decision to raise rates again, look at the latest bank failure, and examine how these occurrences may slow down the economy. Key Takeaways [00:17] - A busy week with a rate hike and more bank failures [08:54] - The effect of large bank failures on regional banks [13:34] - The danger of being all in on a certain strategy or sector [19:04] - The latest snippets from S&P 500 earnings calls/reports [22:48] - Historical market returns when earnings are up and down YOY Links Fed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes Truflation Sven Henrich: 99.2% odds of rate cuts before the end of the year Pranksters posing as Ukraine's president tricked the Fed chair into a phone call Jim Cramer’s April 19th Western Alliance take Federal government seizes First Republic Bank and sells to JPMorgan Chase Ben Carlson: Regional Banking ETF returns vs S&P 500 The top move-out U.S. Metros and their top destinations McDonald’s says people are cutting out ordering fries 'Labor Shortages' mentions outpace 'Job Cuts' during S&P 500 company earnings calls Carlson: Over the last 90+ years the stock market has been more likely to see positive returns, double-digit returns, and up years of 20% or more when earnings are down from one year to the next. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, the guys are joined by a very special guest. Steve Lane is the author of Mickey Mantle: A Life In Memorabilia which chronicles the life and career of Mickey Mantle through the items in Steve’s extensive collection. They discuss his incredible Mantle items and how sports cards and memorabilia have now become a legitimate investment vehicle in what Steve calls the art of the 21st century. Key Takeaways [03:07] - How Steve got into collecting baseball cards [04:35] - Why Mickey Mantle is such an important American figure [10:54] - Steve’s most prized Mantle items [15:30] - When/why did the memorabilia market take off? [21:59] - Nostalgia vs. investment [30:01] - Steve’s appeared on the “Talking Sopranos” podcast Links Steve Lane Mickey Mantle: A Life in Memorabilia Aaron Judge with Mickey Mantle’s glove National Sports Collectors Convention ‘Talking Sopranos’ Superfan Episode Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

After a Spring Break vacation, the guys are back in the studio to catch you up on all the financial happenings around the globe. They discuss how remote work and office space vacancies are affecting the commercial real estate market, how the residential market fluctuates wildly from coast to coast, and why we should be optimistic despite continuing recession rumblings.

The Stokes Brothers pick apart negative headlines we are seeing despite coming out of a positive first quarter. They also discuss the resurgence of Bitcoin, the emergence of AI, the effects of an aging population, and of course…the Federal Reserve. Key Takeaways [06:18] - Is there any merit to the US dollar losing its status as a reserve currency? [09:57] - Why is Bitcoin back up? [12:09] - The speculative mania behind new tech like AI [16:01] - What happens when the Fed stops its rate hiking cycle? [22:00] - US vs International performance; a shift from growth to value [27:05] - The financial impact of an aging population Links Ryan Detrick - S&P 500 gains after a >7% Gain Q1 Historically Cullen Roche - Is the US dollar losing reserve status? Jurrien Timmer - The final Fed tightening cycle historically WP: How Silicon Valley Bank’s executives tweaked their risk model JP Morgan: USA vs EAFE relative performance Lawrence Hamtil Charlie Bilello: the % of Americans 65 and older Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The guys take a look back at a crazy 1st quarter that has shown the market’s resilience. They discuss where the banking industry goes from here, how commercial real estate could factor into that, and how this first quarter was a classic example of why you stay invested in an equity portfolio through thick and thin. Key Takeaways [04:00] - What is market breadth? [12:11] - Potential banking ramifications related to commercial real estate/office space [18:04] - How do banking/lending standards change moving forward [20:26] - The coin flip of the market’s movements Quotes “So this is that classic wall of worry. Essentially the saying goes that a bull market is built on a wall of worry, meaning that generally the people that are optimistic about markets turn a blind eye to the headline risk and continue to invest and buy and average into markets during times of turmoil are generally rewarded. This first quarter is a classic example of that.” - Doug Stokes “Over the short term, markets are a voting machine, and over the long term, they're a weighing machine.” - Ben Graham Links RSP - Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index Bloomberg: FDIC Considers Forcing Big Banks to Pay Up After $23 Billion Hit Joe Consorti: Vacant office space in the US is at its highest level ever Vornado Realty Trust Planetizen: 11K Units Possible with San Francisco Office Conversions The Reformed Broker: A Shock to Lending Standards Michael Burry: “I was wrong to say sell.” Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The guys once again turn their attention to Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and what the Fed will do in the wake of the recent bank failures. They dive into the global effects of those collapses including what happened with Credit Suisse and then look at what we can learn from the cyclical nature of human behavior. Key Takeaways [03:59] - How do banks actually work? [09:09] - How does the government determine what banks are “important”? [10:50] - What happened with Credit Suisse? [18:49] - Lessons learned from the repetition of human behavior Quotes “Banks are not going to want to loan in this environment with the fear that people may have a run on their bank too. They may be the next dominant fall. Lending is just going to be a little bit more stringent in this environment, which curbs economic growth because we're a credit-based society; businesses [and individuals] borrow money to invest and grow.” - Doug Stokes “Just from a macro standpoint, even though it was absolutely a bailout in terms of those two bank failures, the system on the whole would have really experienced a lot of stress. So even though it was a bailout, I think it probably was necessary to avert a bigger crisis.” - Greg Stokes Links Axios: Feds Raise Rates Again, Despite Bank Failures CNBC: Credit Suisse-USB, A Financial Banana Republic Truflation WSJ: Yellen Says U.S. Could Move to Protect Deposits at Other Banks Reuters: Bill Hwang’s History With Credit Suisse WSJ: JPMorgan Bought Nickel That Turned Out to Be Stones The World’s Oldest Complaint Letter Just Keep Buying by Nick Maggiulli David Senra: Lessons from Dinner With Charlie Munger Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

No doubt, you’ve heard about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. But do you know how it happened? Or why? Greg and Doug Stokes give these answers and more about how the government stepped in and what the biggest bank crash since 2008 means for the economy moving forward. Key Takeaways [01:41] - How the demise of Silicon Valley Bank really started in the COVID era [06:24] - What a bank run looks like in the technological age [11:28] - Where will the Fed go from here? [18:01] - A look at current CPI and Trueflation numbers Quotes “This all just leads me to believe that a prudent strategic asset allocation approach and not trying to jump in and out is even more important nowadays because It seems like information, as quickly as it gets across the wires, prices move so quickly that somebody attempting to jump in and out of the market and saying, ‘look, I'm going to take a break until things settle down.’ It's almost impossible to do that nowadays because everything just bounces around so quickly.” - Doug Stokes “It seems as of now, that things have chilled out, and the markets are positive now that CPI numbers have come out. But the interesting thing is what the Fed does. In terms of raising rates, they raise until something breaks, is the saying. And obviously, something broke.” - Greg Stokes Links Forbes: What to Know About the Biggest Bank Failure Since 2008 WSJ: Social-Media Postings Amplify Anxiety Over SVB Collapse Barney Frank Was on the Board of Failed Signature Bank Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist - JP Morgan Antetokounmpo Had Money in 50 Banks Until Bucks Owner Helped Him Invest Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week’s guest is Jim Cobb, a New Orleans defense attorney and the author of the award-winning book, Flood of Lies: The St. Rita's Nursing Home Tragedy. Jim won two high-profile cases defending the owners of nursing homes in St. Bernard, LA and Hollywood Hills, FL. The trio discusses these trials, the state of today’s judicial system, and even Jim’s under-the-radar New Orleans restaurant recommendation. Key Takeaways [02:23] - How Jim was inspired — as an attorney — by the Boston Massacre story [04:32] - The power of government and money in the U.S. justice system [09:57] - The mob mentality & political outcry after nursing home tragedies in LA & FL [16:54] - The probability of more weather-related tragedies [19:29] - How money factors into being a defendant [23:52] - The process of screening cases based on “win-ability” [25:58] - Why it’s harder to defend someone you know is innocent Quotes [05:39] - “The only thing written on the front of the Supreme Court is ‘equal justice under law’. That's their motto. That's our motto. Let me suggest to you folks that there's nothing equal about the justice that is dispensed in this country. The only thing that gets you close to equal justice is if you’ve got a lot of money.” - Jim Cobb Links Jim Cobb Flood of Lies: The St. Rita's Nursing Home Tragedy What Happened at St. Rita’s Nursing Home? St. Rita’s Nursing Home Owners Acquitted Judge Tosses Case Against Administrator in Hollywood Hills Nursing Home Trial N7 Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Back in the studio, the Stokes Brothers catch up after the Mardi Gras break. They examine why bad economic news is good news for the market and vice versa, and why the real estate market across the country has come to an abrupt halt. Key Takeaways [00:22] - Good news is bad news for the market and bad news is good news [05:28] - Is now the right time to lock in long-term bonds? [08:09] - A deep dive into the current real estate market [16:38] - Tales from the slopes during Mardi Gras break Quotes [01:25] - “Interest rates are moving around like crazy at this point, and that's just the market trying to figure out where this is ultimately going to land with the Federal Reserve. I'm still in the camp that we're going to see continued declines in inflation.” - Doug Stokes [12:40] - “My sort of base case is that there's just not going to be a whole lot of activity in housing, and either we're going to have sort of a sideways market in housing until rents sort of catch up, or maybe we have a decline in interest rates, which decreases that affordability gap. But as it currently stands, there's just a massive gap between what you can afford in rent versus the comparable house to buy. So no houses are affordable at this point.” - Doug Stokes Links Truflation Scott Grannis - Calafia Beach Pundit Goldman Sachs: 99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate Nick Timiraos - U.S. home prices fell 5.4% at an annualized rate over the Jul-Dec period Bill McBride - Weekly Active Inventory Up 67% YoY; New Listings Down 16% YoY Cullen Roche - Has Housing Bottomed Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this week’s episode, the guys welcome on Rob Koyfman, CEO and co-founder of Koyfin. His company offers live market data and powerful analytical tools in a modern, intuitive format. Rob, an expert at taking the macro perspective, discusses emerging markets, inflation, efficiency in the tech sector, and making industry-leading data available for everyone, no matter the size of the portfolio. Key Takeaways [00:18] - A look at Rob Koyfman’s experience leading to founding Koyfin [03:31] - Rob’s optimistic view about the macroeconomy right now [09:18] - The macro look at emerging markets [13:38] - The reality of shifting from oil and gas to renewable energy [20:23] - Interest rates’ effect on tech investing [23:09] - The tech culture of growth vs. efficiency [29:01] - How Koyfin is bringing professional-grade analytics tools to the masses [32:38] - Why there’s a lack of innovation from large companies like Bloomberg [35:42] - Where does Rob see Koyfin in 3-5 years Quotes [28:06] - “Maybe this whole [tech] layoff spurs the next wave of growth and technology by having all of these people that are intelligent coming together and saying, we've got to create a new product instead of being employed by one of these mega-firms.” - Doug Stokes [35:50] - “I'd say the real power of our tool is the customization and the fact that you have hedge fund managers and students using the tool in different ways. So we want to offer that customization to all of our users and basically offer all that data in one place so that they can customize the workflow to what they're trying to achieve.” - Rob Koyfman Links Rob Koyfman Koyfin Emerging Markets episode with Perth Tolle Spotify cuts 6% of its workforce Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As the Stokes Brothers prepare for Mardi Gras in New Orleans, they reluctantly continue their ongoing conversation about the Fed and inflation. They’ll also look at rolling 30-year returns and delve into the legacy of Charlie Munger and the uneasy future of crypto. Key Takeaways [00:35] - The calm before the New Orleans Mardi Gras storm [03:16] - An update on inflation [09:06] - Shelter and the annualized rate of inflation [13:08] - The worst 30-year return over the past 100 years was a total gain of 850% [17:10] - Our thoughts on Charlie Munger [21:46] - Is the technology behind Bitcoin ripe for disaster? Quotes [06:14] - “I think what's happened is the market, on the whole, was surprised, positively, about the strength of the American consumer and the economy in spite of the fact that the Fed raised rates on the most rapid pace in history from basically nothing to where we're at right now. And the economy on the whole really hadn't slowed down.” - Greg Stokes [13:08] - “Discussion on markets is an exercise in futility and keeping people invested and towards an objective of long-term planning and discipline is really what this all this is all about.” - Doug Stokes Links Bill McBride: Core CPI ex-Shelter Ben Carlson: Deconstructing 10, 20 & 30 Year Stock Market Returns 3,000 Hit Club from age 27 on Charlie Munger at the Daily Journal Annual Meeting Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The Stokes’ consistently lean toward the optimistic side of thinking, but this week, they’ll take a look at data/opinions on both sides of the coin. The guys examine the national focus shifting away from the Fed and toward corporate profit margins, why companies becoming more efficient is a bullish sign for the economy, and how diversification is the right strategy no matter the economic outlook. Key Takeaways [00:35] - Recapping the earthquake in Turkey & Syria [05:20] - Shifting the focus from the Fed toward corporate profit margins [08:53] - Potential of a recession without a major crash in asset prices [10:18] - Number of employees needed to make $1M in revenue now vs. 1990 [14:18] - A look at the other, more pessimistic viewpoint [17:31] - The importance of diversification during economic downturns [19:04] - The decline of amateur investors and day traders [21:57] - How Chad Ochocinco saved millions buying fake jewelry and flying Spirit Quotes [09:44] - “Diversification is basically always saying that you're sorry because one part of the portfolio is not going to be working. So whether you're in stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, gold, whatever, a diversified portfolio should be set up for various outcomes with the emphasis on, we tend to lean more towards optimism than pessimism in our allocation approach.” - Doug Stokes [18:15] - “It's always good to look at alternate viewpoints and there are a lot of smart people on all sides of the equation. Usually, the ones that try to try to scare you positively or negatively are the ones to ignore.” - Greg Stokes Links WSJ: The rising death toll from the Turkey-Syria earthquake Bloomberg: Powell says further rate hikes needed Goldman Sachs cuts the subjective probability that the US will enter a recession BoA: number of workers needed to generate $1 million in revenue. Michael Kantro: A historical look at “soft landings” WSJ: The retreat of the amateur investor Chad Ochocinco saved most of his NFL salary by flying Spirit and wearing fake jewelry. Morgan Housel: The Psychology of Money Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this week’s episode, Greg and Doug Stokes focus on the long-term success of the stock market and not getting caught up in the next big thing. They’ll also take a look at tech companies shedding excess employee luxuries, the cyclical nature of trendy investment sectors, and the dichotomy of how inflation/employment news is viewed. Key Takeaways [01:15] - Corporations are shedding excess luxuries/amenities [03:21] - The cyclical nature of the “hot” industries [06:06] - Are AI and Machine Learning the next big investment sector? [08:29] - The Warren Buffett philosophy of buying businesses [12:43] - Investing ≠ Gambling longterm [20:31] - Inflation is coming down, China is coming back Quotes [010:44] - “It could be a cryptocurrency or a tech stock, or some software, etc. And now all of a sudden people are saying, wait, when are these businesses going to earn money? When are they going to pay dividends? As soon as that particular mindset shifts, then the Warren Buffet strategy, or others like him, starts to take hold. So we're big proponents of saying we don't know what the market's going to do over the next months or years really, but if we buy a collection of businesses that are growing their revenues and earnings and have pricing power and customers like them, then we feel pretty good about long-term prospects.” - Doug Stokes [15:40] - “The issue with the [concept of] investing versus gambling is that dichotomy of returns or the percentage difference in returns of periods of time. In the stock market, you have to be willing to grind through some horrible times.” - Greg Stokes Links Xbox revenue was down, but LinkedIn up 10% last quarter Celebrities frequently attend Salesforce meetings Marc Andreessen: Software is Eating the World Petroleum Engineering enrollment down at Louisiana Universities What is ChatGPT and why does it matter? Compounding Quality: Never invest in the next big thing The power of compounding: Warren Buffett's net worth at 52 & 92 Benjamin Graham: The Intelligent Investor Warren Buffet eats McDonald’s for breakfast every morning Treyton Devore: Investing vs. Gambling Jeremy Siegel, Professor of Finance at Wharton Plan Maestro: Global Billionaires & Millionaires Plan Maestro: 6-month CPI inflation Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

While the negative narratives swirl, Doug and Greg Stokes look at the actual data to find encouraging signs in the markets. The guys also examine the latest tech layoffs and what they mean for the macro economy and they question why people listen to “investor gurus" and why pessimism is seen as a sign of intelligence today. Key Takeaways [01:15] - High-growth tech companies are very sensitive to change [03:13] - Tech layoffs vs. the macro employment data [07:37] - A day in the life of a tech company employee [11:01] - S&P 500 growth indices: tech vs. energy [12:07] - S&P 500 above the 200 day moving average [17:00] - Should we give credence to investment “gurus”? Quotes [03:55] - “Bull markets climb a wall of worry, and every negative headline can be exacerbated into something that's doomsday worthy.” - Doug Stokes [20:46] - “Having an optimistic mindset with the understanding that things happen over time and having diversification built into the portfolio for that low probability event makes a lot more sense to me than shifting entirely to a bias or mindset for whatever reason.” - Doug Stokes Links WSJ: The changes in employee counts at high-growth tech companies St. Louis Fed - Average monthly layoffs post COVID A day in the life of a Google employee: before and after a layoff Willie del Wiche: S&P 500 - 200 day moving average Michael Burry - Big Short investor Puru Saxena Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Could we be looking at a year with a soft landing where inflation comes down without major economic pain? Greg and Doug dive into the potential of that outcome and the Fed’s role in it. They also look back on the EU energy crisis and its fear-based narratives and discuss how emotions/human nature affect the cycles of investment. Key Takeaways [01:30] - The potential for a soft landing [02:50] - Rent as a portion of CPI [05:08] - What to expect from the Fed’s rate hiking cycle [08:32] - Looking back on the fear-based narratives surrounding the EU energy crisis [11:36] - European vs U.S. Investments over the past 15 years & since the Ukraine invasion [14:04] - How emotions, sentiments, and narratives affect investment cycles Quotes [15:41] - “In bull markets, everyone wants to own what's working. And in bear markets, nobody wants to own what's not working. That mindset just shifts. It's the greed component. And that mindset shift from greed to fear is pretty amazing to see in such a short timeframe.” - Doug Stokes [16:46] - “When you have your human nature starting to talk to you like, I don't want to own this, I'm fearful of this, or I have greed because my neighbor's making money. Usually, when those sentiments start to play in, you're better off doing the exact opposite.” - Greg Stokes Links Ian Shepherdson - “Big rent increases won’t last” Joseph Politano - "How Europe is Decoupling From Russian Energy” S&P 500 Forward Total Returns Following CNBC’s “Markets in Turmoil” specials Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Happy New Year from Stokes Family Office. In this 1-year anniversary episode, Greg and Doug recap 2022 and look forward to 2023. They dig deeper past the forecasts and narratives to find factual reasons to be optimistic. The guys also discuss the importance of diversification across sectors and why pre-election years are historically bullish. Key Takeaways [01:10] - A recap of 2022 [05:19] - A historical look at the S&P500 during pre-election years [08:26] - Reasons to be optimistic in 2023 [13:35] - The wide range of potential financial outcomes this year [14:47] - Diversification - ranking returns by sector [20:00] - Venture capital fundraising [23:33] - Predictions on the Federal Reserve’s role in 2023 Quotes [04:17] - “The sentiment is bearish…that we're entering an imminent recession. The Fed is trying to introduce higher unemployment and trying to bring the economy down in order to temper inflation. That is the narrative at this point in time, and I'm sure that's going to change in the next couple of months, but just be reminded that sentiment does not always dictate reality.” - Doug Stokes [07:57] - “If you ignore the fundamentals, ignore the narrative, and just follow what actions are occurring in markets and look at history, then there's some positivity going along with that.” - Doug Stokes Links Cullen Roche Morgan Housel: How Bad Are Wall Street Forecasts? JC Parets: Pre-Election Years are Bullish Sam Rho: 9 Reasons to be Optimistic All Star Charts Returns by Sector Rankings - All Star Charts Santiago Solanet - Venture capital targets vs. funds raised Andreessen Horowitz % of car buyers committed $1000+ monthly payment Tik Tok Investors Dave Portnoy’s Trading Journey Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week’s guest is Perth Tolle, the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes and creator of the Freedom 100 EM Index (FRDM index). This freedom-weighted equity strategy is the first of its kind and uses personal and economic freedom metrics as primary factors in its investment process. Doug and Greg chat with Perth about how/why she came up with the ETF, how the strategy performs vs. the market cap-weighted benchmarks, the risks of autocracies, China’s role/exposure, ESG, and more. Key Takeaways [00:23] - About Perth Tolle [01:02] - The Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) [05:34] - Perth’s experience in China shaping her ideals [06:16] - Autocracy risks for emerging market investors [10:38] - The investment idea behind emerging markets [12:21] - What is freedom weighting? [12:56] - Human Freedoms Index: Civil, Political, Economical [14:00] - Composite Country Scores [14:47] - Taiwan is the #1 freest merging market [15:29] - Direct vs. indirect allocation/exposure to China [19:39] - Freedom metrics performance in non-COVID environments [21:12] - Why Perth launched the ETF [24:51] - Perth’s partnership with Wes Gray & Alpha Architect [28:35] - Excluding China from an emerging markets cap-weighted index [30:01] - What’s next for Life + Liberty Indexes? [31:50] - The politicization of ESG Quotes [12:06] - “We believe that the freer markets will experience more sustainable growth, they'll recover faster from drawdowns, and they'll use their capital labor more efficiently. So not only do we want to exclude the autocracies and stay away from that autocracy risk, but we want to give a higher weight to freer markets, which we think are launch paths for the growth stories of the next decade.” - Perth Tolle [17:28] - “If you're looking at these index providers putting between 20 and 40% of an allocation to a single country that's ranking near the bottom from a freedom perspective…that seems like a pretty high risk to me.” - Doug Stokes Links Perth Tolle Life + Liberty Indexes The Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) China’s 1 Child Policy Cato Institute Fraser Institute Human Freedom Index & Data Set Alpha Architect Dr. Wes Gray Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The Holidays bring lots of gifts, and one that we look forward to each year in the financial world is the upcoming year’s forecasts. On this week’s episode, Greg and Doug examine and discuss 2023 outlooks from several of the world’s largest asset managers. The guys take stock of a wild 2022, give their own predictions for next year, and debate how recency bias annually plays into these prognostications. Key Takeaways [01:33] - BlackRock’s 2023 Global Outlook [04:30] - Historical rebounds after market declines [05:34] - 10-Year Bonds vs. CDs [08:00] - Vanguard 2023 bond market outlook [10:35] - International markets and the Euro vs. the Dollar [13:34] - JP Morgan 2023 outlook [17:28] - Today’s price of oil [18:00] - Our takeaways from these 2023 predictions [20:00] - Bonds from the long-term planning perspective [21:22] - 2023 market predictions [24:17] - Next year’s housing market [26:39] - How recency bias affects forecasts Quotes [04:21] - “After you've had these sorts of declines, typically the markets are positive when you look at one year, three years, five years, 10 years. So, if you're thinking about it just from a historical standpoint, you would want to be risk-on, and that means getting short-term on the bond side of the equation to the extent that you have fixed income exposure. And then you would want to have a higher allocation towards equities, because presumably if history is any guide, equities would outperform after these sorts of periods.” - Greg Stokes [25:40] - “It seems like every year there's a certain level of uncertainty that exists that has never existed before. It's that recency bias that makes you fearful of taking any action from an investment perspective because so many things could go wrong. It happens every single year. That's why you have to have a long-term game plan investment-wise to take your risks with money that you can afford to lose and develop an investment strategy over a period of time longer than 2023.” - Doug Stokes Links BlackRock 2023 Global Outlook Ben Carlson - Getting Long-Term Bullish Vanguard Bond Market Outlook JP Morgan 2023 Outlook Marko Kolanovic Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this week’s episode, Greg recounts his recent trip to Buenos Aires, from the food, geography, and people to their current financial situation. He speaks on the local impact of their economic struggles as well as investment opportunities and their incredible opportunity to make changes. The guys also delve into year-end tax planning which is especially important this year due to the performance of mutual funds. They give tips on looking at your fund families' capital gains distributions and whether you should do some tax-loss harvesting before now and the end of the year. Key Takeaways [04:25] - Can you eat steak for each meal, every day? [05:18] - The conversion of Argentina into a nationalist/socialist country [06:47] - How 100% annual inflation affects the local people [7:44] - The current state of the Argentinian economy [13:09] - Investment opportunities in Argentina [15:36] - The inefficiency of actively-managed mutual funds [16:32] - Taxable capital gains [17:23] - Performance of 2022 Mutual Funds [17:44] - Morningstar’s list of fund families’ distribution estimates [18:42] - How to avoid capital gains tax [20:24] - An example of taxes on a fund that’s down this year [21:29] - Direct Indexing [21:47] - Tax loss harvesting Quotes [13:57] - “The food in Argentina was so good. The drinks were great, the ambiance was great. But the governmental policies have really taken the country in a really bad direction. If things improve, then they really have everything they need from a pure natural resource standpoint to become a, you know, a very wealthy country like, like they once were.” - Greg Stokes [18:13] - “It's just insane how some of these funds, even though they're flat or down or down big this year, are gonna have a negative tax impact to the client of, or the shareholder of that fund, even if that shareholder remains an investor. So the way that you get around this is by selling the fund before the capital gain is distributed, assuming that you don't have a gain in the fund itself.” - Doug Stokes [21:09] - “If you can do tax loss harvesting to mitigate the capital gain impact from the rest of the portfolio, or if you're selling a business that's gonna have a capital gain and you could do tax loss harvesting to mitigate that impact from a capital gain perspective, that's a fantastic way to manage a portfolio for after-tax returns. Another fantastic way to do it is to not hold these funds that are gonna distribute capital gains at the end of the year, even though you might be down in the position. It just doesn’t make any sense.” - Doug Stokes Links Santiago Solanet Juan Perón Inflation in Argentina Argentine VP Cristina Fernández convicted, sentenced in $1B fraud case Morning Star: Family Fund capital gains list Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

What effect does the character of a CEO have on a company’s performance? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk to Dan Cooper, Founder & CEO of ROC Investments. After working with Presidents, CEOs of large public companies, philanthropists, and extraordinary leaders from around the world, Cooper founded his firm with a character-based investment strategy, creating a model to quantify the character and integrity of public company CEOs. Focusing on the four pillars of character (integrity, responsibility, forgiveness, and compassion), the model is based on a Fred Kiel/Harvard Business Review Study that proved that high-character CEOs outperform low-character CEOs by 5x as return on assets. The guys discuss Dan’s incredible story, from his work in returning Afghanistan to its people to his attempt to build the first standard gauge railway for the Tanzanian Central Corridor. They also dive into how his character-based model performs and his thoughts on taking a quantitative versus qualitative view of investments. Key Takeaways [00:37] - Dan Cooper bio [07:24] - Mentorship of Joe Ritchie [11:32] - Development of the character-based strategy [15:22] - Performance results of the Return on Character study [18:18] - Percentage of companies who qualify as satisfactory [21:08] - Cooper’s thoughts on traditional ESG scores [22:00] - How failings of companies like FTX factor into the strategy [26:04] - Comparisons to the Jim Collins Framework [27:43] - How the ROC portfolio is reviewed and measured [29:02] - Historical examples of high-character CEOs Quotes [11:32] - “I developed the first character-based strategy in the early 2000s, and it was out of a conversation with Joe [Ritchie]. He said to me, man, I just wish I knew who the good ones were in the market…I mean the people with character because I think that has a huge impact on the long-term performance of the company.” - Dan Cooper [15:22 ] - “I actually ended up hiring the firm that developed and did all the research for the book Return on Character, KOW International, which is an extraordinary company. We went out and tried to identify leaders today using some new and really exciting ways of doing it. First of all, they define character in a really wonderful way….the four pillars of character: integrity, responsibility, forgiveness, and compassion, and they prove that when CEOs behave with those four characteristics at a highly consistent level, performance is correlated.” - Dan Cooper [19:30] - “What ROC Investments represents is kind of a new orientation for consideration, if you will, and how you spend and invest your money to get returns. And we think that not only do we hopefully outperform and do better than the market over time, but we also think if Wall Street wakes up and starts to see that there are a lot of people that care about this, it could have a positive effect. And maybe boards of directors start asking, why isn't my CEO on the list?” - Dan Cooper Links Dan Cooper ROC Investments Joe Ritchie Tom Campbell Bud McFarlane Fred Kiel Return on Character (Book) Return on Character (Study) Sam Bankman-Fried Jim Collins Framework The Outsiders by Willam Thorndike Herb Kelleher Jim Sinegal Timothy Boyle Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The cryptocurrency industry is one of the most volatile and unpredictable industries in the world. In just a few short years, the industry has gone from being relatively unknown to being worth billions of dollars. The recent drama surrounding the FTX cryptocurrency exchange is a cautionary tale for the industry. It is a reminder of how quickly things can go wrong in the Wild West world of crypto and how easy it is for investors to get caught up in the hype. In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about one of the latest and biggest market events, the fallout of cryptocurrency. As a part of the weekly news digest, the two also speak about inflation and how the FTX's fallout repeats history. Key Takeaways [00:53] - Two potential outcomes in today's economic climate. [02:06] - Greg's take on a good inflation print. [04:41] - The FTX fallout. [08:32] - What the new CEO of FTX has to say about FTX's bankruptcy. [10:30] - The experts' take on what's holding up inflation at this point. [12:15] - Doug and Greg's market prediction for the year ahead. [15:07] - What may cause the Federal Reserve to a halting scenario. [19:30] - How the FTX's fallout is repeating history. [22:45] - Greg's advice for investors and money managers. Quotes [12:15] - "My prediction for next year is that if we have a bad market year, bonds will return to being diversifiers, and the 60/40 will be alive again." ~ Doug Stokes [13:22] - "Even if we have a recession, the markets may still be up, and bonds may still be up, too, because bonds will have priced in the fact that inflation is coming down." ~ Greg Stokes [14:17] - "Markets are the most up-to-date snapshot of human psychology and how people feel about buying and selling assets at any time." ~ Greg Stokes [22:56] - "If you get excited about something, try to allocate a small percentage of your net worth to it. So if it doesn't work out, it won't sink the ship." ~ Greg Stokes Links Cullen Roche Sam Bankman-Fried Charlie Bilello Anthony Pompliano Tom Brady Mark Cuban Michael Saylor MicroStrategy Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Dave Portnoy Barstool Sports SafeMoon Dogecoin Coinbase Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

In this episode, Doug and Greg take a little break from the usual marketing discussion and talk about some other exciting things, basketball, and football. They are joined today by Scott Kushner. Scott is a leading expert on New Orleans sports and a columnist for The Times-Picayune. He is also the co-host of the Polk and Kush podcast, covering New Orleans' teams with a bend away from stats and bold takes. Scott talks with Doug and Greg about the Pelicans, Tulane football, and the Saints. Aside from sharing his thoughts on New Orleans sports, he also speaks about where he sees the city's sports scene going. Key Takeaways [02:31] - How far the Pelicans are from winning a championship. [04:34] - What Zion Williamson means to his team. [08:33] - Future impact of the trade in the NBA on the Pelicans. [11:19] - Scott's vision for the Pelicans in the future. [16:24] - What Scott thinks about the Saints and their potential. [19:24] - How Scott explains the Saints' failures during the Drew era. [21:04] - Where Sean Payton is likely to go after this year. [28:17] - In what direction will New Orleans go in the future? Quotes [04:09] - "This season is about connecting Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Willie Green, and David Griffin and seeing how much potential there is. Before you can start saying where's the championship window, you want to see how all these things work together when they're all together. Cause we had just seen much of that in the first 10 games of the season." ~ Scott Kushner [13:25] - "Whether or not the Pelicans will get incrementally better to fit that timeline is a question that no one can answer. But they have allowed themselves to say if this is the right group, they've got nothing but time to get it together, fail together in the playoffs, tweak what's right around the edges and then go out and try to win. And that is a rare thing." ~ Scott Kushner [20:39] - "It doesn't do you much good if you aren't willing to use the value you have." ~ Scott Kushner Links Scott Kushner on Twitter NOLA Polk and Kush Podcast Hornets Pelicans CJ McCollum Brandon Ingram Zion Williamson David Griffin Ja Morant NBA Anthony Davis Lakers Dyson Daniels Josh Hart Larry Nance Jrue Holiday Chris Paul Phoenix Suns Golden State Warriors Jose Alvarado LeBron James New Orleans Saints Reggie Bush Drew Brees Sean Payton Sean Canfield Garrett Grayson Lamar Jackson Patrick Mahomes Chargers Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of a recession in recent months. While it is impossible to know for sure what the future holds, there are still silver linings to be found. In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about how global investment managers view the market, how the Federal Reserve is at the center of the market's action, and the silver lining in today's economic climate. Key Takeaways [00:25] - An overview of the 2022 midterm elections. [03:21] - Global investment managers' view of the market. [06:21] - How the Federal Reserve is at the center of the market's action. [10:51] - The outlook for recession among global investment companies. [14:11] - How the economic slowdown affects tech companies. Quotes [07:34] - "Just a reminder to people that whatever the message you receive from the Federal Reserve, I would not take that as gospel by any means. They are all just human beings trying to interpret data." ~ Doug Stokes [09:06] - "Even the people appointed to forecast are horrible at forecasting. There are billions of financial interactions daily. How do you forecast all of that? That's an exercise in futility." ~ Doug Stokes [15:21] - "It's not good to talk about an economic slowdown. The positive is that if you say one shoe falls after the other, we're on the last shoe under the HOPE (Housing-Orders-Profits-Employment) framework. And so, you would expect a rise in unemployment, the last piece of the puzzle for this cycle. Then you start on to new." ~ Doug Stokes Links Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight BlackRock Charles Schwab Lloyd Blankfein Goldman Sachs Rocket Mortgage Bank of America Charlie Bilello Michael Kantro Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Recent years have been tough on the economy. Many challenges have led to a slowdown in the global economy. Despite the negative impact of the economic slowdown, there are still reasons to be optimistic. Tough times don't last forever, and the economy will eventually recover. In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about what financial experts have to say about inflation, the slowdown of today's economy, and how the global markets have been performing in the past weeks. Key Takeaways [01:45] - What financial experts have to say about inflation. [05:28] - The slowdown of today's economy. [11:21] - A decline in the growth rate of big tech companies. [15:12] - An aspect of the economy that is positive. [17:59] - A look at the scenarios facing Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. [20:29] - How the global markets are doing after 43 weeks. [23:48] - The best thing people can do in today's market. Quotes [05:00] - "We manage portfolios based on people's lifetime cash flow needs and build buffers between their equity portfolio and their expected living needs. You would never want to trade your retirement or your nest egg on what's happening in the world." ~ Greg Stokes [08:09] - "Regardless of where you look, it will be tough for people to buy homes at these rates." ~ Doug Stokes [20:51] - "The only things that have worked this year are energy and cash. It was the most hated asset class for the last 10 years." ~ Greg Stokes and Doug Stokes Links What To Do When You Know What Stocks Will Do Next Jason Zweig Lloyd Blankfein Goldman Sachs Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Nick Timiraos Bank of America Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The stock and bond markets have seen some wild swings over the past few weeks. This has caused large drawdowns in the stock and bond markets and a great deal of pain for international economies. While the increasing declines in the market may have a negative impact in the short run, they are likely to have a positive impact in the long run. In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about how people feel about the current state of the market, the increasing drawdowns in the stock and bond markets, and update on the economic situation around the world. Key Takeaways [01:14] - Some good news in the market today. [03:18] - How people feel about the current state of the market. [07:05] - The impact of market volatility on someone nearing or in retirement. [08:31] - The increasing drawdowns in the stock and bond markets. [12:36] - What Greg and Doug think about where we are in the economic cycle. [15:15] - An update on the economic situation in big countries. [19:50] - The impact of the U.S. economy on international economies. Quotes [09:07] - "Besides the Great Depression, during which the stock market was down 90%, the bigger drawdowns that have historically happened in the U.S. stock market have been down 50%, 40%, etc. The bond market is not supposed to function like that from a volatility standpoint. But this year, the 20+ year treasury market is down negative 42%. That's unreal to think about." ~ Greg Stokes [11:07] - "As far as the bond market is down as much as it is simultaneously with the stock market, that's unprecedented." ~ Greg Stokes [17:33] - "When you have an economic downturn, at least historically, one way to combat it has been to cut taxes and spur economic growth." ~ Doug Stokes Links Michael Gayed Charlie Bilello Charles Schwab Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The stock market has been on a roller coaster ride this year, and unfortunately, it has mostly been going down. This has made a lot of people very anxious about their investments and future. Bonds have also been performing poorly, adding to the anxiety. How should investors respond to current market conditions? In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about how stocks and bonds have performed poorly this year, how people react to today's market conditions, and how Mike Epstein's story makes sense from an Armageddon-type scenario. Key Takeaways [00:20] - Market performance for the past week. [02:20] - How stocks and bonds are performing poorly this year. [06:48] - How people react to today's poor market conditions. [10:59] - Why today's market conditions aren't comparable to the 1970s. [15:03] - The impact of higher mortgage rates on homeowners and renters. [17:04] - How Mike Epstein's story makes sense from an Armageddon-type scenario. [19:07] - Doug's thoughts on the wealth quote by Arthur Schopenhauer. [20:41] - What Greg thinks is the most valuable asset. Quotes [03:25] - "It's been a crummy year for stocks and bonds. The only thing that's worked this year has been cash and oil stocks, the things which people looked at negatively for the previous 10 years." ~ Greg Stokes [10:41] - "The market is a very good teacher and the lessons can be expensive." ~ Doug Stokes [19:33] - "My definition of wealth is time and freedom and the ability to choose what you want to do with your time and freedom. It's not necessarily the value of your portfolio, the amount of earnings, or the amount of material things you have." ~ Doug Stokes Links BlackRock Ben Carlson Getting Long-Term Bullish Warren Buffet Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

A growing number of experts believe that a recession is looming on the horizon. This week, Greg and Doug look at the importance of being prepared for the dips while remaining focused on the brighter days to come. Key Takeaways [00:21] - Recent headlines on the global economy. [06:01] - What surveys say about the economy and the market. [11:17] - What analysts have to say about the current state of the market. [14:27] - Insights into how bull markets and bear markets work. [15:40] - The impact of high mortgage rates on the housing market. [20:00] - What it takes to survive a possible recession. Quotes [03:38] - "The markets are hoping that data provides the Fed an excuse to pivot or get more dovish and not continue down the path of raising rates. The jobs report that came out on Friday did the opposite." ~ Greg Stokes [06:56] - "The Federal Reserve is trying to push the economy into a recession, which means having corporate profit margins cut substantially, and corporate earnings cut down, leading to higher unemployment." ~ Doug Stokes [14:42] - "Bear markets are typically an elevator down, and bull markets are an escalator on the way back up. Meaning that typically bear markets happen pretty quickly, and then it slows as it's climbing a wall of worry from the standpoint of re-initiating another bull market." ~ Greg Stokes Links Jamie Dimon J.P. Morgan KPMG Callie Cox eToro Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The market has continued to be volatile over the last month. This situation has left many investors wondering what they can expect in the coming weeks and months. Despite speculation surrounding investment banks, the financial market, and the housing market, many experts believe there is potential growth in the long term. In this episode, Greg Stokes and Doug Stokes talk about the market performance over the last month, the speculations surrounding investment banks, and their outlook on the financial and housing markets. Key Takeaways [00:31] - Why September's market performance was not good. [05:02] - Speculation surrounding investment banks. [07:13] - How the economic volatility over the last three years has been brutal. [09:58] - What makes today's market exciting. [11:43] - What makes the U.S. fortunate compared to other countries. [16:56] - Greg's outlook for the housing market. [21:55] - What financial experts have to say about the current market situation. Quotes [05:15] - "It's easy to be bearish at this point, and the people that are rewarded are the ones that are bullish when everybody else is bearish." ~ Doug Stokes [09:43] - "It's difficult to make buying decisions when there's so much uncertainty in the world and when the range of outcomes is so wide. I think that comes down to prudent portfolio and cash flow management." ~ Doug Stokes [09:58] - "As a young person, the exciting thing about the market today is the buying opportunity. If you're dollar cost averaging into your 401K plan, great. Your dollar cost averaging into lower and lower prices help with the accumulation of more and more wealth over time. But if you're reaching retirement age, the exciting component to your portfolio is that you can earn some interest on the bond side." ~ Doug Stokes Links Ben Carlson Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Warren Buffet George Maroudas J.P. Morgan Bob Brinker Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Historically, leaders communicated with their employees in a transactional and hierarchical manner. However, these tactics no longer work in today's environment. The traditional, command-and-control leadership style is no longer as effective. What leadership techniques do effective leaders employ in the modern business and working environment? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Michelle Johnston, a management professor, executive coach, and leadership expert who serves as the Gaston Chair of Business at Loyola University New Orleans. Author of “The Seismic Shift in Leadership,” Michelle emphasizes the need for leaders to shift from a command-and-control leadership style to one focused on connection. Michelle talks with Doug and Greg about how leaders can get to the heart of their organizations, how human connection can drive better financial performance, innovation, and productivity, and what true connection is all about. Key Takeaways [00:54] - What Michelle's book, “The Seismic Shift in Leadership,” is about. [02:47] - How leaders can get to the heart of their organizations. [05:16] - How to move away from formal hierarchical leadership structures. [09:23] - An example of a leadership style that can erode people's trust. [12:15] - How human connection can drive better financial performance, innovation, and productivity. [17:53] - What true connection means. [21:39] - How to measure the effectiveness of a leader. [25:35] - The role incentives play in retaining top talent. [27:11] - The importance of purpose and personal growth in retaining high performers. Quotes [02:49] - "Leaders who were truly getting to the highest levels in their organizations were leaders who were focusing on showing up and connecting with their people." ~ Michelle Johnston [04:21] - "You can't truly connect with others and get the best out of your team if you're trying to be somebody you're not or you're uncomfortable in your own skin. It starts with you." ~ Michelle Johnston [18:02] - "Connection is shared reciprocity. Communication in the old way was transactional, hierarchical, or do this. In connection, there's got to be an energy of reciprocity. I see you, you see me. So even though I'm the leader, I see you." ~ Michelle Johnston Links Michelle Johnston Michelle Johnston LinkedIn Loyola University New Orleans The Seismic Shift in Leadership Jack Welch General Electric Entergy Qualcomm Don McGuire Salesforce The Seismic Shift Podcast Peter Ricchiuti Pete November Ochsner Health Warner Thomas Sutter Health Dennis Lauscha New Orleans Saints Drew Brees Swin Cash Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Inflation is commonly discussed in terms of its impact on commodity prices. However, its effects go much deeper than that. Businesses, the stock market, and even interest rates are affected by it. As inflation ripples through the economy, what is the federal government doing to deal with this problem? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about inflation trends and their associated risks. They speak about the impact of inflation on commodities, businesses, and the stock market, the federal government's response to inflation, and how treasury risk premiums affect various asset classes. Key Takeaways [00:21] - Doug and Greg's market forecast for this week. [04:04] - Trend in inflation and its associated risks. [06:59] - How Doug and Greg design portfolios. [08:47] - The impact of inflation on commodities and services. [13:47] - The federal government's response to inflation. [16:23] - How the risk premium to treasuries affects various asset classes today. Quotes [04:19] - "There are a lot of components to the inflationary picture that seems to be slowing down. The risk is that the policymakers are making decisions from an interest rate standpoint with the analogy of the late 1970s when inflation existed for 15 years and wanted to nip it in the bud." ~ Greg Stokes [11:42] - "It's very difficult to be a business owner and a big participant in the global economy and manage a business with many variabilities." ~ Doug Stokes [13:27] - "There's tremendous volatility in all aspects of business and the same thing in the markets. Even though we have inflation in the 8% range, unemployment is low. Unemployment is 3.5%, so that's an interesting dichotomy of what's happening right now." ~ Greg Stokes Links Ken Fisher Morgan Housel Ben Carlson How Much Do Interest Rates Matter to the Stock Market Vanguard Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

For centuries, families have passed down their wealth from one generation to the next. However, with the modern-day challenges, the need for a more formalized approach to multi-generational wealth stewardship has never been greater. In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Jason Baker, a former NFL punter who is now the CEO and Partner at Paterson Center. This organization helps individuals and organizations be very intentional about their strategy and performance. After going through a life plan with one of the best strategic planning facilitators, Jason found clarity in the next act in his life. Today, he got licensed to hold all the Paterson licensing in his private practice. Jason talks with Doug and Greg about how he transitioned from playing football to owning a consulting firm, what Paterson Center can offer clients, and his approach to creating a life plan for families with different dynamics. Key Takeaways [01:07] - A brief overview of Jason's NFL career. [04:43] - How Jason transitioned from being an athlete to owning a consulting firm. [06:18] - What Paterson Center can offer clients. [08:09] - How LifePlan and StratOp work for families. [13:11] - In what ways Paterson practices accountability for its strategies. [16:59] - How Jason creates a life plan for families with different dynamics. [21:48] - The timeline for creating a family constitution. [26:07] - How Jason markets their services to attract new clients. [28:27] - The type of family Paterson Center usually works with. [33:27] - What Jason thinks is the most important role on an NFL team. Quotes [14:31] - "It's our job to recognize where the family wants to go and what needs to happen to get there. Then we'll certainly embrace getting there and maintaining our accountability." ~ Jason Baker [27:03] - "Our goal is always to do the best work we can that somehow we will be a blessing to the organizations and families we work with." ~ Jason Baker [32:40] - "We love the opportunity to help people do what they want with what they've got and what they've been blessed with in the world. And I'm fortunate enough to have some pretty cool tools to do it." ~ Jason Baker Links Jason Baker on LinkedIn Reggie Bush Devin Hester Paterson Center Paterson LifePlan StratOp | Paterson Pete Richardson McKinsey Deloitte New Orleans Saints Denver Broncos Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Real estate has long been considered an attractive asset class by investors for several reasons. This investment offers many benefits, including high returns, stability, and inflation protection. With real estate investing being an excellent way to diversify portfolios and build wealth over time, what are some of the investment strategies that can take advantage of these opportunities? In this episode, Greg and Doug talk with Drew Pearson, the Managing Partner at Pearson Partners. Drew began his commercial real estate career at Latter & Blum in Baton Rouge in 2008. He moved to a boutique firm, Waters & Pettit, in 2011 and became a top-selling agent there within a few years. In 2015, Drew began to work at Promanas, where he served as head of acquisitions helping the firm to grow to over $250M of real estate asset value. Drew talks with Greg and Doug about his journey to becoming a real estate investor. A self-storage investor and developer himself, Drew speaks about why self-storage is an attractive asset class, how he builds teams to manage local and regional markets, and what his thoughts are on the next big thing on the real estate investing scene. Key Takeaways [01:07] - Drew's journey to becoming a real estate investor. [05:39] - Why self-storage is an attractive asset class. [10:33] - How Drew finds deals in secondary and tertiary markets. [12:09] - What makes investing today different from the past. [14:45] - Why team building is important from an operational perspective. [17:28] - How Pearson Partners serves investors. [22:06] - The next big thing in real estate investing. [27:11] - Drew's thoughts about vacancies. [29:39] - What makes real estate an attractive investment. Quotes [06:25] - "The demand drivers for storage are death, divorce, and dislocation or moving. Those things happen in good times and in bad. Unlike an office tenant in a recession who needs to downsize his footprint, there is a need, regardless of economic times, for this storage type." ~ Drew Pearson [16:11] - "People are the gas to the race car, and investment properties are the race cars. They need people to operate them." ~ Drew Pearson [28:22] - "It's almost better to have a short-term lease in today's market. If the tenant's paying six bucks a foot and the market is now nine bucks a foot, it's beneficial to have a short-term lease as a landlord. We can restructure the lease or bring things back closer to market and get a better return." ~ Drew Pearson Links Drew Pearson on LinkedIn Pearson Partners Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing has grown in recent years as more investors are looking to put their money into companies that align with their values. While this investment can positively impact the world, some unforeseen consequences come with it, especially in a tight supply chain. In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about the recent updates on markets and economies. Focusing on the impact of the increased price of energy, they speak about the result of Europe's shift towards renewables, the unforeseen consequences of ESG investing, and the risks associated with ESG investing in a tight supply chain. Key Takeaways [00:34] - Recent updates on markets and economies. [04:46] - How the rising cost of electricity in Europe affects the global economy. [08:36] - Doug's thoughts on international and domestic market returns. [12:50] - Why investing in the US is still a better option. [14:31] - ESG investing and its unforeseen consequences. [18:58] - Why policymakers and investment committees need to revisit ESG guidelines. [22:15] - Risks associated with ESG investing in a tight supply chain. [24:07] - The impact of energy price increases on emerging economies. Quotes [16:56] - "There are these unforeseen consequences for many of these ideas that sound good in theory, like shifting to renewables. But there are potential causes and effects, like national defense concerns and what Europe is going through right now." - Greg Stokes [18:24] - "The whole collective idea behind renewables is fabulous, but the idea of getting ahead of yourself from a policy perspective is not prudent." - Greg Stokes [22:15] - "In good times, ESG seems great because you're not sacrificing anything. But in a supply chain crunch when energy is scarce and commodity investment has been low for a long period, those that didn't fall for the policy of the day are the ones that come out on top." - Doug Stokes Links Charles Schwab Liz Ann Sonders Lawrence Hamtil UBS Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The stock market is often seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, with movements in share prices reflecting changes in underlying conditions. For this reason, analysts closely watch stock markets for clues about future inflation trends. While inflation has been one of the most feared economic events, periods of high inflation have often been followed by bear market rallies. What does this phenomenon mean, and how does it impact investors? In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about inflation trends, the bright side of all of the issues facing the U.S. and the international community, and the importance of time and quality assets in investing. Key Takeaways [00:21] - Recent trends in commodity prices. [01:50] - Inflation trends, CPI, and the price-earnings ratio. [06:12] - How U.S. stocks outperform international stocks. [08:39] - The bright side to all issues facing the U.S. and the international community. [13:49] - The importance of time in investing. [15:15] - How real estate investing is similar to stock investing. Quotes [03:55] - "Inflation has peaked and is coming down. Anything can happen in markets, but from a fair valuation perspective, we're at the average level currently." - Doug Stokes [10:00] - "If we look at every single bear market rally since 1929 and look at the best performance during that bear market before it declined even further, 2022 would be the absolute best." - Doug Stokes [21:04] - "Having these emotional swings based on the political news of the day and general market sentiment is one of the worst things you can do for your portfolio decision-making." - Doug Stokes Links Crestmont Investments JP Morgan Jurrien Timmer Fidelity Investments Nautilus Capital Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

What are the narratives in the market? Bullish or bearish? This is a question that is always on the mind of investors. The stock market is constantly bombarding investors with news, analysis, and commentary, and it can be overwhelming to try to make sense of it all. However, looking at the market narratives from a different perspective can give you a better understanding of what is happening in the market. In today's episode, Greg and Doug debunk market myths. They explore the market narratives through a different lens by looking at the news, analyst opinions, and price action. Key Takeaways [02:15] - How the markets have rebounded recently. [06:16] - How the markets are doing better today than they have ever been. [08:57] - Why the current mortgage rate is unpleasant for homebuyers. [13:37] - What an inverted yield curve means from a market perspective. [18:34] - Why investing early in life is important. Quotes [06:57] - "Things are better now than they've ever been. From a short-term perspective, things have been looking a lot better. Inflation seems to have chilled out, and the latest inflation numbers were flat monthly." - Greg Stokes [07:51] - "Consumers are tapping into savings to fight inflation. On top of that, debt levels and delinquencies are rising." - Doug Stokes [15:23] - "Historically, a yield curve leads to a recession. And a recession is always accompanied by a negative market experience." - Doug Stokes [21:20] - "Invest early, invest often, be aggressive, and stick with the plan. If you do that for many decades, it will work out in your favor." - Greg Stokes Links You Can Make Any Piece of Data Look Bad If You Try Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know: And Many Others You Will Find Interesting Sam Ro Brian Portnoy Goldman Sachs Santiago Capital Vanguard Fidelity Investments Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.