Lagniappe

As earnings and economic growth deliver above expectations, the market is digesting new information from Jerome Powell and the Fed that rate cuts aren’t coming soon. We’ll look back at the last 30 years of returns and ahead to the next 10 years of prices, discuss offshoring jobs, and give bond market and inflation updates. Key Takeaways [00:19] - Fed Day breakdown [05:07] - April brought a much-needed market reset [09:16] - Looking back at the last 30 years' returns + what to expect over the next 10 [16:50] - The efficiency of offshoring jobs [24:51] - Bond market + inflation updates Links YTD we see 10 of 11 sectors are higher, with cyclical areas like energy, industrials and financials leading the way So far, in Q1, the #EPS surprises have been the highest since 2021 with the dispersion of results elevated Did you know the S&P 500 was up 9 of the past 10 years in May? 30 Years of financial market returns Prices 10 years from now Faber: I'm so bullish on US stocks I think you should invest most of your money here The lagging components of the inflation basket Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

It’s peak season in Nola with Jazz Fest, the Zurich Classic, the Pels in the Playoffs, and town is buzzing. We’ll zoom out to examine what all that spending means for the national economy. We’ll also look at wide-breadth market participation and why despite a sell-off in tech, the rest of the market is holding up well. We finish with a rearview mirror view of COVID-era oil prices, how we missed a recession, and what we’re expecting for the rest of this year. Key Takeaways [00:20] - Fun times in Nola and what that means for the national economy [03:00] - Mixed signals from the country’s biggest economists [06:38] - Things look good with the rest of the 495 S&P stocks [12:18] - The COVID oil crash and why you stick with a game plan [18:20] - Looking back at how we missed a recession & ahead to the rest of 2024 Links S&P 500 Is Ripe for Further Gains, JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Says Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Is Steering Clear of Bold S&P 500 Calls Meta tumbles 12% after a disappointing second-quarter revenue forecast S&P 1500 Value P/E How rare was Friday? 300+ S&P 500 stocks were green, yet the index was down 0.9% which has only happened once since 1998 Four years ago, oil prices went negative How rising interest rates change the relationship between stocks and bonds Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

While the debt doomers circle, we’ll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We’ll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America’s dollar, wages, and efficient energy output. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter’s outsized effect [06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop [09:40] - The power of the US: the Dollar, our wages, energy production [13:36] - The incredible efficiency of modern oil/energy markets [15:09] - What’s happened recently when the SP has broken a positive trend line [16:16] - The surprising market reaction to Iran’s missile attack Links Bilello: The Start of a Correction (March CPI Data) Apartment List National Rent Report (April) Grannis: Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well Weniger: A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors USA has switched from large importer of oil & gas to a significant exporter Carmel: We're not in a 1970s-style oil-inflation spiral Detrick: S&P 500 broke the trend line from late October. What’s next? Carmel: We are objectively terrible at forecasting rates Roche: Why savers are in hog heaven Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

New CPI data is here, and the economy continues to run hotter than the market was expecting. What does that mean for the Fed cuts we’ve been talking so much about? And are we now in a position to be more accommodative if the market does stall? All of that, plus global parenting trends and our hopes for Tiger at Augusta. Key Takeaways [00:17] - CPI Day + Will they or won’t they make cuts? [05:20] - The inflationary impacts of insurance costs [11:24] - Trump’s SPAC & the return of meme/bitcoin [16:45] - EVs + the future of self-driving [19:10] - Why the U.S. economy has yet to break [25:48] - Parenting data + Masters picks Links Stocks hit by Fed-pivot rethink as oil climbs $DJT share price “is back to the level it debuted at on March 26th US sees missile strike on Israel by Iran, proxies as imminent The average price of a used Tesla has declined 21 months in a row Peccatiell: With all the rate hikes, why hasn’t the U.S. economy broken? Parenting has become far more intensive in most developed countries Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We’ll react to Jerome Powell’s post-Quarter 1 comments and look at inflation and the economy related to oil/gas, real estate, and commodities prices. We’ll then look at strong financial numbers coming out of Mexico and prognosticate what a bright future could look like with our Southern neighbors as a main manufacturing partner. We’ll finish by joining the national narrative on Caitlin Clark, LSU, and the rise of women’s hoops. Key Takeaways [00:17] - A big picture view after quarter 1 [06:35] - Inflation risks as the price of commodities increases [09:51] - The interesting parallel between oil/gas and real estate [14:32] - Recovery #s for SBF & Madoff clients [15:50] - Mexico unemployment down, peso up [19:07] - The golden rule of compounding Links Timmer: After falling a modest 2.8% in '23, earnings are expected to grow 9% in '24 1st time since Q3 of 2022 that Tesla has delivered under 400,000 units in a quarter Housel: the % of hedge funds & mutual funds that did worse than investing with Madoff Bilello: never interrupt compounding unnecessarily Women’s Final 4 ticket prices are twice that of the men’s Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We’ll start with the flurry of current event news, from the Baltimore Bridge to Trump’s new SPAC. We’ll then look at the FOMO effect of positive markets and discuss how long-term holds can be a time-tested tool to grow your wealth. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Trump’s Truth Social SPAC [03:53] - Baltimore bridge tragedy [08:00] - Historic data after 5-month wins streaks & the start of bear markets [11:23] - Wealth creation through long-term holds [17:26] - Financial conditions and American energy efficiency are soaring Links Trump’s Truth Social starts trading with a market value near $6.8 billion after SPAC deal Baltimore Key Bridge collapses after ship collision Cocoa prices hit $10,000 per metric ton for the first time ever The S&P 500 is about to be up 5 months in a row Detrick: buying fear is historically a strong idea Yale School of Mgmt: On the Nature of Long-Term Holds Scott Grannis: Financial Conditions Look Excellent Grannis: U.S. energy efficiency has soared Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We’re beginning to sound like a broken record as we record each week coming off more market highs. We’ll discuss how Crypto has roared back after making it through multiple speculative cycles. We’ll also review the positivity that comes with broader market participation. We’ll then examine why you can’t have the debt conversation without also looking at assets and end with the effect of inflation on America’s housing market. Key Takeaways [00:17] - One of history’s longest bull runs continues [02:53] - Crypto, and conversations about Crypto, are back [07:48] - The increasing breadth of the S&P 500 [11:03] - Is this the Roaring 20s minus the vibes? [14:10] - Space launches, AI productivity, and optimism for the future [15:55] - Looking at assets along with debt [22:42] - Inflation’s effect on new real estate coming online Links Detrick: Returns mostly driven by earnings over longer periods Today's Cryptocurrency Prices by Market Cap All-Star Charts: the broadening of market participation Carlson: comparing today with the Roaring 20s Carlson: Households are growing their assets faster than liabilities Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know US Dollar Index Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

With the markets at all-time highs and earnings rising in tandem, we’ll look at why and how the narrative changed so drastically over the last 6 months. Plus, we’ll discuss recession risks being taken off the table with commercial real estate rebounding and the Fed having lots of room to make cuts. Key Takeaways [00:17] - One of the greatest 19-week rallies ever [02:12] - The recession narrative has changed over the last 6 months [06:27] - Earnings growth of the S&P 500 [12:30] - Rebounding CRE prices and more positive economic signs [18:10] - More troubles for the airline industry Links Detrick: We're in the middle of one of the greatest 19-week rallies ever Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say Roche: Inflation is still in a downtrend APOLLO: commercial real estate prices are starting to recover Scary moments on recent Boeing flight Statistical summary of commercial jet airplane accidents Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, we’ll start with the latest jobs report and examine NVIDIA’s wild ride over the last two weeks. We’ll then discuss troubles with Apple and the airline industry and address concerns that the Fed will lower rates too late. We’ll wrap up with a look at this bull market cycle and how a healthy correction could take place. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Jobs and NVIDIA’s last 15 days [04:10] - Apple’s woes and Google's comparison [10:11] - Troubles in the Airline Industry [11:50] - Costco and the pricing power trend [12:58] - Truflation vs what the Fed is saying [19:21] - Is the market in need of a breather? Links NVIDIA added an entire Tesla AND Starbucks in market cap in the last two weeks Citi lowers Apple stock-price target. Blame iPhone sales in China Tire falls off of United Flight Costco has a money-saving plan that beats inflation Powell reinforces position that the Fed is not ready to start cutting interest rates Truflation today is 1.63% Bitcoin crossed above $70,000 for the first time US gasoline prices are at the highest now since November Carlson: What does a healthy correction look like? Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We’re coming off of another good market month. Sentiment is bullish, and we’ll look into why that’s the case. We’ll then discuss how/why we should hedge that optimism with historical data and end with updates on the electric vehicle and bond markets. Key Takeaways [00:16] - The risk appetite has returned [04:52] - Why are the vibes the way they are right now? [09:09] - Hedging optimism [13:15] - Mania in the EV sector [18:42] - Bond market update Links Detrick: what happens historically when the S&P 500 is higher in both Jan and Feb Carlson: A long time horizon is the ultimate equalizer in the stock market Apollo’s Torsten Slok Says Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2024 Detrick: stocks are up because we are looking at a major jump in productivity and EPS over the coming years Galloway: Corporate Ozempic Rivian and EV mania Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

NVIDIA is the story of the week. We’ll look at their rising market cap and why price matters more than hype when it comes to new hot sectors like AI. We’ll also discuss practical AI uses, from big banks to our personal relationships. We end with our suggested advice on how to handle thinking about peaks vs. cliffs during market highs. Key Takeaways [00:16] - AI is becoming the new hot topic [03:57] - NVIDIA’s exploding market cap [07:22] - NVIDIA’s dependence on the Magnificent 7 [08:01] - After 34 years, Japan’s market hits record close [13:25] - Growing, practical use cases for AI [17:50] - What should the investment mindset be with markets at all-time highs? [22:13] - Stocks and bonds correlation Links Lex Fridman podcast with Bill Ackman Nvidia's market cap is over $200B higher than all of the companies in the S&P 500 Energy sector...combined Japan’s Nikkei, after 34 Years, briefly tops record close in intraday trading Timmer: The macro narrative is unfolding as expected Sora, Open AI’s text-to-video technology Why a stock peak isn’t a cliff Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

During the Mardi Gras break, we welcome on Seth Johnson, a partner at 388 Ventures. With his wealth of real estate experience and insight, he’ll tell us about the impact of COVID and how it got us to this point. We’ll discuss the challenges that developers and project sponsors are facing, the emergence of a new, alternative lending market, and the banks’ current decision tree. Seth also gives his outlook for multi-family and the real estate market as a whole and what we should be looking forward to during and after this high-interest rate cycle. Key Takeaways [00:15] - Meet Seth Johnson, partner at 388 Ventures [01:51] - What happened during COVID and what’s happening now [04:20] - Bid ask challenges for developers/project sponsors after optimistic underwriting [07:22] - What do banks want to do now? And what options do borrowers have? [11:57] - The short and intermediate-term forecast for real estate [17:39] - The long-term outlook for multi-family [20:20] - Capitalizing a deal in today's environment Links Seth Johnson 388 Ventures The bill Is coming due on a record amount of commercial real estate debt The price gap between renting and buying has hit the widest point since 2000 Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Happy early Mardi Gras from New Orleans! Before we head into a weekend of floats and football, we question why we’re hearing so many economic bears coming out of the woodwork. In that vein, we’ll look at potential bearish indicators like tech bubble rumblings and the country’s unsustainable fiscal path. We’ll then examine tech’s impact on the economy and society as a whole, why some are calling this a recession of the poor, and make the bear case for Nvidia. We finish by giving our "expert" opinions on the big game on Sunday. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Why are the bears getting louder? [03:07] - Tech’s effect on the economy and our social lives [07:55] - Consumer net worth and consumer debt are both up [13:30] - The Magnificent 7 globally and the bear case for Nvidia [17:54] - Our expert Super Bowl preview Links Putting the tech rally in perspective Forget barhopping or even dinner out—more young professionals prefer turning in early The introverts have taken over the economy Consumer balance sheets are the Derrick Henry/Mark Ingram meme Credit card delinquency rates now and pre-Covid Truflation's real-time US inflation gauge has moved to 1.35% from 6.24% a year ago Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Thanks for joining us each week for 100 episodes of the Lagniappe Podcast. We’ll continue our conversation from last week about small and large caps and what it means to have such a large gap between them. We’ll then look back on a great January and how it falls in line historically, check in on bond market predictions, and track the normalization of the economy after rapid growth and rate hikes. And like every other podcast, we’ll discuss Taylor Swift in the run-up to the Super Bowl. Key Takeaways [00:18] - Historical data on times when small and large caps had such wide dispersions [05:48] - How a fantastic start to 2024 stacks up with historical Januarys [08:28] - A friendly back-and-forth on Doug’s bond market prediction from last year [13:52] - Layoffs are here as the economy slows [17:46] - Emerging housing markets index [22:45] - The economics of the Super Bowl and Taylor Swift Links Europe regulates its way to last place Europe has never been this cheap versus the US Bilello: Will small-caps have their day in the Sun? Brevan Howard's top economist sees 3 huge macro turning points under way Winter emerging housing markets index The true story behind Masters of the Air Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Coming off the heels of hitting a new high for the S&P 500, we’ll talk about how, why, and what it means that we are in a bull market. We’ll then examine the latest on earnings, inflation, and the effect of a massive cash surplus. With some football talk mixed in, we finish by taking a broader perspective to look back on lessons we learned in a post-COVID cycle. Key Takeaways [00:18] - China stumbles while the US market surges [03:45] - We’re calling it: we’re in a bull market [09:29] - Prices/costs, inflation, and the earnings outlook [15:17] - Could the surplus of cash drive the markets even higher? [18:32] - Truflation reaches the Fed’s goal of being under 2% [22:03] - Reflections on a post-COVID market cycle Links Ro: the long game remains undefeated Jason Kelce helps girl get a message to Taylor Swift during the Chiefs-Bills game The equal-weight S&P 500's forward PE is 18, the lowest valuation for the index on an S&P 500 record high day since January 2020 Timmer: Rising tides lift most boats WSJ: Wall Street hopes trillions in money-market funds will flow into stocks and bonds Truflation: CPI Drops Below 2%: Fed Inflation Target Reached Bilello: What does sitting in cash cost you? Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

2024’s markets have gotten off to a choppy start, but that hasn’t stopped economists from calling this a period of vibespansion. We’ll look into the merits of that notion as well as how fixed debt is working to the advantage of home and small business owners. We’ll also take a look at the economic impact of China invading Taiwan and discuss the red flags of investing in countries with autocratic regimes. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Vibespansion during a choppy start to the 2024 markets [04:25] - How fixed debt is aiding home/small business owners [08:48] - A frigid update on EVs [12:33] - The economic impact if China invaded Taiwan [20:57] - The Fed is moving toward an easing bias [23:48] - Spirit & JetBlue merger blocked Links The $8.8 trillion cash pile that has stock-market bulls salivating Nationwide, 89% of homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate below 6%, down from a record high of 93% in mid-2022 Ford cuts production of F-150 Lightning Electric Truck Oddlots: The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF BlackRock Capital Market Assumptions Timmer: the Fed has gone from a tightening bias to an easing bias Dave Portnoy’s turbulent Spirit Airlines trading Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Heading into a big NFL weekend, we look at the wins and losses and what we learned from the market in 2023. We also chat about conflicting inflation data leading to renewed calls for recession. We then finish with a blitz of news including Boeing, Bill Gates, and Zuckerberg’s cows. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Why the disciplined investor is paid off in the long run [05:18] - Conflicting inflation/CPI data [09:15] - Renewed recession narratives from prognosticators [13:47] - Boeing insider trading [17:24] - Bill Gates and diversification [18:35] - Mark Zuckerberg’s cows drink beer [22:51] - Do insurance rates affect inflation? Links 12 lessons the market taught investors in 2023 Annualized volatility & returns since 1928 Hertz dumps EVs, including Teslas, for gas cars Mark Zuckerberg's cattle get beer and macadamia nuts Ro: If you're trying to become a trillionaire, you've come to the wrong place Dolphins at Chiefs could be the coldest game in history for both franchises Remarkable surge in auto insurance costs fans US inflation Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Happy New Year from Stokes Family Office. We kick off the new year by looking at what historically happens after a good market year and pose the question, are we better off simply expecting positive performance? We’ll then dive into incredibly interesting demographic data, look at the correlation of stocks and bonds, and examine the Ozempic effect on the markets. Key Takeaways [01:03] - Historical results after a good year in the markets [03:53] - Betting on humanity and a diversified portfolio [08:24] - The effects of global demographic trends [15:53] - Bond market update [21:03] - Predictions on stocks/bonds and International vs. the U.S. [26:48] - The Ozempic effect Links What Comes After a Good Year in the Stock Market? The single most important chart to understand the stock market. Bullish on the US in with the current global demographic backdrop Bonds and stocks have each moved in the same direction in 19 of the last 24 months JP Morgan’s Guide to the Markets Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we head into Christmas, we’ll discuss whether or not we’ve already seen our Santa Claus rally. We’ll then dive into core CPE numbers and take our weekly look at inflation. Finally, we’ll review the biggest narratives of 2023 before looking ahead to what we hope will be a big 2024 as we explain our pragmatic stance on being long-term bullish. Key Takeaways [02:05] - Have we already had our Santa Claus Rally? [06:50] - Checking in on core CPE and inflation [10:01] - Looking ahead to 24 [13:31] - What was the broad-market narrative of 2023? [17:21] - The bright side of thinking from a contrarian perspective Links Six-month core PCE is at 1.87 percent, under the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target Consumer sentiment up, inflation expectations down Jurrien Timmer’s outlook for 2024 REIT Index performance Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

There’s a narrative brewing that the market has beaten inflation/a recession, but we’ll look into why the game is not over yet. We’ll also examine the coiled spring of small and mid-caps, how this bear market stacks up historically, and the wild ride we’ve been on over the past 6 weeks. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Is the market declaring that the interest rate hiking cycle is over? [04:45] - The inflation/recession game is not over [09:25] - How does this bear market stack up historically [13:31] - Looking back at an interesting past 6 weeks & the psychology of investing [18:54] - Lessons in looking at market themes and individual stock selection Links CPI less shelter is now at 1.4% Antonelli: 2022 was really just an average bear market We are only 30 points away from Goldman’s year-end target for year-end 2024 2003 vs 2023 valuations for Nvidia and Intel Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Amidst a cloud of public negativity, we’ll combat the perma-bull narratives and go through a list of things you don’t see in a recession. We’ll then discuss why we might need to consider skipping our typical “rules of thumb” during this COVID period. Finally, with the new jobs report in hand, we’ll talk about what happens if the economy doesn’t slow down, what’s on the horizon for multifamily, and why market history shows that patience will be rewarded. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Things you don’t see in a recession [03:41] - When it comes to our normal “rules”, COVID is just a weird period [09:06] - The new jobs report just came out [10:58] - What happens/what does the Fed do if the economy doesn’t slow? [12:44] - Is multifamily the next real estate sector to feel pain? [16:00] - Looking back at the COVID era froth of stocks [18:22] - Why the market’s history should help you become/remain optimistic Links Things you don’t see in a recession What is the Sahm rule? November Jobs Report U.S. Job Growth Continues to Be Robust Odd Lots: Multifamily residential may also be in for trouble The most 2020/2021 bubble thread Since 1928 you've been more likely to finish the year w/a gain of 20% or more (34x) than a negative return (26x) Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We dive straight into the bond market as it comes off its best month in the last 40 years. We’ll then discuss how interest rates are affecting residential & commercial real estate markets differently, what the Fed’s next move can/should be, the life of Charlie Munger, and the crazy spending on Holiday travel and shopping. Key Takeaways [00:13] - Patting ourselves on the back (momentarily) for our bond market takes [03:41] - Differences in the residential & commercial real estate markets [05:29] - Odds and prognostications for the Fed’s next move [12:55] - The life and impact of Charlie Munger [18:45] - What Thanksgiving & Black Friday mean for the economy [25:08] - The S&P’s strong run continues + US vs International markets Links 70% chance that the Fed cuts rates at their May 2024 meeting Core PCE since June is running at a 2.4% annualized rate. Charlie Munger, Buffet’s right-hand man, dies at age 99 11/26 was the busiest day ever at airports in the US Black Friday Shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US Zandi: The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past Goldman's Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over - Odd Lots Meb Faber - the case for global investing Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we look forward to Thanksgiving, we start by saying what we’re grateful for including being American at this point in time of history. We’ll then juxtapose that with what’s going on in one of our favorite countries, Argentina as well as across Latin America and the world. We take note of the strength of the economy in the everyday things we see, give our weekly Fed/inflation update, and finish with our thoughts on Americans’ confidence in the future. Key Takeaways [01:10] - Election shocker in Argentina [06:17] - Why business-friendly environments in Latin America are great for the US, world [12:14] - What F1 races, restaurant reser airport lines tell us about the economy [16:05] - Our weekly Fed/Inflation update [19:22] - Value propositions of the Magnificent 7 [26:32] - Why confidence for our children’s futures is at all-time lows Links Argentine libertarian Milei pledges new political era after election win What China's shrinking population means for the global economy An on-the-ground report from the Formula 1 race in Vegas The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past The Bloomberg Aggregate Index inched about 0% YTD Sam Altman joins Microsoft as OpenAI names its third CEO in 3 days Only 19% feel confident their children’s lives will be better than theirs Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

After another positive week in the markets, we’ll go through our weekly inflation check-in, re-examining our own opinions over the past year and looking ahead to what the Fed can/will do next. We’ll then take note of the big bank forecasts that are rolling in and how they compare to last year’s and discuss why in times of elevation in volatility, bearish opinions come out of the woodwork. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Checking in on inflation numbers [04:27] - The attractiveness of bonds [08:08] - Why we see bearish opinions pop up in times like these [12:44] - Looking at big banks’ previous and 2024 forecasts [17:38] - The relationship between inflation/deflation and day-to-day economics Links Vanguard: Historical returns on fixed income and equities S&P 500 is now up almost 8% since Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson said there would be no year-end rally on October 30 Famed Big Short Investor Michael Burry closed his short position in the S&P 500 Goldman Sachs: The US economy is on its final descent to a soft landing Ben Carlson: Remember in 2022 when everyone was betting on $200 oil? It's currently below $80 Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

After a volatile, but positive past week, we’ll discuss comments from Jerome Powell and how the Fed continues to drive the markets while earnings continue to grow. We’ll also reexamine fearmongering prognostications and provide context around the headlines on surging debt. Key Takeaways [00:17] - How the Fed continues to be the market driver [06:15] - Why some of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors have done the best this year [10:05] - Earnings per share for the S&P 500 [13:23] - Prospective returns for a diversified, 60/40 portfolio [17:01] - How much should you read into headlines on surging debt? [21:11] - Looking back at oil price and market crash prognostications [24:51] - News roundup featuring Belichick, Biden, Bankman-Fried, and Bridgewater Links Treasury’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction goes poorly 82% of S&P 500 beat Q3 estimates by an average of 7.61% Buffett says rising interest rates are gravity to asset prices A short history of the 60/40 portfolio U.S. credit card debt reaches $1.08 trillion The crash callers won’t save you Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Happy All Saints’ Day from the home of the Saints. After recapping Halloween from Uptown New Orleans, we’ll jump into a discussion on the secrecy of some of the largest hedge funds. We’ll then look at the intertwined relationship and valuation of stocks and bonds, the trajectory of the U.S. markets, and our weekly inflation update. Key Takeaways [01:20] - Looking behind the curtain at hedge funds like Bridgewater [07:35] - The relationship and relative valuation of stocks & bonds in today's market [15:04] - The long-term trajectory of the U.S. economy [22:22] - Inflation update Links How does the world’s largest hedge fund really make its money? Hedge fund two sigma is hit by trading scandal How inflation altered the stock - bond relationship How often do we see intra-year declines like this? US stock market is almost 5x larger than the next biggest market Inflation-adjusted excess household liquidity September PCE inflation by the numbers Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We start today with the narrative that Google’s earnings are the impetus for the markets selling off. Then with a historical perspective, we’ll share what we’re telling our clients during this choppy, ping pong market. We’ll finish with our thoughts on why we actually haven’t slipped into recession and how the U.S. missed a major refinancing opportunity. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Are Google’s earnings really why the market is down? [04:08] - What we’re telling clients about the stock market [09:27] - Difference between today & a bear market or bull market correction in the past [15:50] - Why haven’t we gone into a recession? [19:27] - The huge missed opportunity of the US not refinancing debt Links Happy 1 year anniversary to a 100% chance of recession forecast that never happened CNN Fear and Greed Index Sam Ro: 11 stock market charts that offer much-needed context Michael Santoli on the Morningstar’s The Long View Podcast The Billion Dollar Molecule The greatest missed opportunity of our lifetimes US interest costs outpacing investments Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We open with Saints sadness after a night in the Dome. Then on the anniversary of 1987’s Black Monday, we’ll look back at that historic day and how it compares to today’s choppy market. We’ll then take a deep dive into the bond and real estate markets before examining a narrative shift where good news is actually good news again. Key Takeaways [00:17] - The Saints are no longer fun [03:45] - Looking back at the crash of 1987 [07:11] - How today’s choppy market compares to that historic downturn [09:53] - The asymmetric bond risk to the positive we’re seeing right now [13:15] - Predictions on the Fed raising rates [14:48] - Mortgage rates hit 8% [21:58] - Is good news good again and bad news bad? Links 36 years ago today was the worst day in the history of the Dow The choppiness of the market in just the last week Dreams of big bond gains backfire with $10 Billion ETF loss The Fed Whisperer on a notable shift from Powell Odd Lots: This is what an 8% mortgage means for the housing market Active housing inventory levels are increasing but still below pre-pandemic Total US Real Estate Price Index (YoY%) Job openings/creation, low layoffs, low jobless claims, high bank balances, rising net worth, capex spending = bullish? Who consumes the most calories globally? Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

With the new CPI report in hand, we’ll take a look at inflation and how it continues to affect purchasing power and the markets across the board. We’ll also examine why when you start investing can be as vital as anything else. Then, we’ll finish with our weekly Taylor Swift conversation, rave about our own personal experience with Patrick Mahomes, and marvel at the human achievement of a new marathon record. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Looking at the latest CPI numbers [08:41] - Real estate and bond markets [10:15] - Treasury bond bear markets [11:45] - The importance of timing in investing [19:05] - Stock market update [24:13] - Ozempic and a cautionary tale against headlines [26:45] - T-Swift, Patrick Mahomes, and a new marathon record Links September inflation report Truflation’s new aggregated inflation metric Disneyland is increasing its prices again We're in the biggest Treasury Bond Bear Market ever, Bank of America says Maggiulli: When you start investing can be more important than anything else The S&P 500 has a higher daily return when the McRib is available Parets: Welcome to the year-end rally Ozempic shows promise treating kidney failure in blow to dialysis firms TCU beats Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech on last minute tipped catch 23-year-old runner sets mindboggling world record at Chicago Marathon Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We kick off this week looking at the bond yield and the risk/reward that the bond/fixed income market presents. We’ll also look at how interest rates/inflation are affecting housing, stocks, the odds of a recession, and general consumer spending. Key Takeaways [00:16] - Looking at the Bond yield [07:38] - The risk/reward of bonds now and in the future [11:45] - An update on mortgage rates and the housing market [15:50] - How is the stock market reacting? [19:21] - Real estate index fund performance Links The recent surge in the yield on the 10-year US Government bonds. US Treasuries, who is holding the bag? Ultra-long-duration Treasury bonds have lost more in % than stocks during the Great Financial Crisis Timmer: the higher rates go, the more compelling the risk-reward becomes for bonds Have bonds finally reached escape velocity? Bond buyers battered as Austria's 100-year note shows the danger of duration risk Goldman Sachs expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.8% in 2024 How the U.S. stock market typically declines historically Truflation VNQ, the ETF Vanguard real estate index fund Fear and Greed Index Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We’ll check out a choppy market and how it reacted to last week’s Fed announcement that rates will be higher for longer and another rate hike is on the way. We’ll also look at why we may be entering a time to buy fixed income, how opinion sentiments of inflation have an impact, and give updates on the oil and crypto markets. Key Takeaways [00:18] - Reviewing the last week’s choppy market [04:20] - Bond markets and opportunities to buy fixed income [08:38] - The seasonality of the market [14:25] - Oil markets and deflation [20:03] - What happened to cryptocurrency? Links CNN Fear & Greed Index The price of a May 2050 UST bond is now below 50 Down big in August and September isn’t always a bad thing Pre-Election Years = 80% Hit Rate after down Mid-terms Oil at $100 is too high, even for energy companies JPMorgan's UK bank Chase to ban crypto transactions Roche: Menendez could have been earning $26K+ per year risk-free with T-Bills How chemotherapy was derived Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We start this week with our thoughts on the Fed estimating rates will be higher for longer. We’ll then dive into the craziness of the venture capital industry over the last few years and how interest rates are playing a role. We finish with a historical perspective on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and bullish takes on Taylor Swift and our New Orleans Saints. Key Takeaways [00:18] - Checking in with Jerome Powell and the Fed [04:41] - Instacart IPO & the competition within the venture capital industry [14:03] - How interest rates are affecting real estate and venture capital [15:58] - Ten-Year Treasuries [22:40] - LA tent city, T-Swift economics, and excitement for the Saints Links Current projections for Fed Funds Rate Investments in Instacart made after ‘15 underperforming S&P 500 significantly Home price index with an 18-month lag versus CPI Demand for vacation homes at 7 year low Total returns on an annual basis of the 10-year US Treasury bond Timmer: A compelling risk-reward picture for owning bonds Meb Faber: The Ivy Portfolio California tent city to cost $44k per tent Taylor Swift helps Chicago book most hotel rooms on record Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Join us as we examine sticky core CPI numbers and how shelter factors in. We’ll also look at why deflation may be our biggest economic risk right now. We’ll finish with tales of a Somali pirate stock exchange and how an idea from the movie Trading Places is playing out in real life. Key Takeaways [00:25] - Housing’s effect on inflation and CPI [04:41] - Disinflationary risks [08:19] - Why the S&P 500 has been stuck in a rut [15:44] - The Somali pirate stock exchange [18:00] - Orange juice futures are at all-time highs! Links Cullen Roche: Where is inflation heading now? Zillow home price data for America's 40 largest metropolitan housing markets Goldman Sachs: 3 developments that will slow US growth to a crawl in Q4 2023 The S&P 500’s prolonged period of limbo BoA scraps bullish stance on 10-year treasuries TikTok Investors: the Somali Pirate Exchange Method Orange juice futures prices Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we head into a big, energized sports weekend, we go all in on all things energy. From oil and gas stocks to the demand and performance of EVs, we’ll review where we’ve been and where we’re headed in the world of energy investing. Key Takeaways [02:45] - The current state of the oil market [04:41] - The demand for and price of electric cars [08:19] - Investing in oil companies and commodities in general over the last decade [12:17] - Will there be a re-rating on energy stocks? [15:07] - How big of a factor does ESG play? [17:23] - Fuel economy, EVs, and self-driving cars [21:18] - Berkshire Hathaway, Fidelity, Robin Hood, and the power of disciplined investing Links WTI is up 25% since Jim Cramer went bearish on oil Tesla Model S and Model X base prices drop once again Vanguard Energy ETF Rockefeller Foundation moved away from fossil fuels in 2021 Harvard says it will not invest in fossil fuels Fuel economy for all vehicle classes has improved substantially over past 2 decades Odd Lots podcast: self-driving cars might finally be for real In-ground pool permits declined by -36% in units and -30% in dollars YoY If Berkshire Hathaway stock tanked 99% it would still have outperformed S&P 500 Fidelity study: best-performing accounts were of people who forgot they had an account Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we head into Labor Day weekend, we fittingly look at the latest jobs report and the revised GDP numbers. We’ll also think location, location, location as we investigate the areas that are winning and losing the migration/real estate race. Finally, we’ll review some of our favorite COVID-era IPOs and wonder if the euphoria bubble is over for now. Key Takeaways [01:05] - Jobs report and the GDP data revision [06:28] - What does the frozen real estate market mean? [10:15] - Which US areas are winning? Which are losing? [16:16] - Mark Cuban + the right place, right time nature of venture capitalism [19:09] - Has the IPO euphoria window closed for the time being? Links U.S. GDP grew less vigorously than believed in Q2 The labor market is now looser than it was pre-Covid Home price decline from peak in 40 largest US markets Just 1% of U.S. homes have changed hands this year The rental market continues to slow 30 migration winners and losers Mark Cuban has taken a net loss on $20M in Shark Tank investments Traeger: another Pandemic IPO to fall down to earth Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As the Federal Reserve hosts its annual conference out West in Jackson Hole, we’ll take a look at what Jerome Powell said and what they forecasted that they’ll do next. We also discuss how mortgage rates, cash buyers, and new builds are affecting the real estate market. We finish with Humble Dollar’s seven financial superpowers that can help you make, save, invest, and ultimately enjoy money. Key Takeaways [00:20] - Checking in on the Fed’s economic policy symposium [05:18] - Is there pent-up demand for home purchases? [10:15] - Unsurprising news out of Russia [12:16] - Financial Superpowers Links Powell: "It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal” Truflation says we’re currently at 2.56% Richard Moody: Regions Economic Outlook, August 2023 Spreads between treasuries and mortgages are still extremely high Downed Russian jet carried Wagner’s hierarchy including Yevgeny Prigozhin Jonathan Clements’ financial superpowers he says we should all strive to cultivate Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

After Michael Burry (of Big Short fame) made his crash prediction, we decided to go back through the success rate of his predictions. We then go abroad and take a look at the Chinese economy’s contraction, how Britain and our Mississippi neighbors are similar, and more insane sportswashing from Saudi Arabia. We’ll end with data on young homeowners and how coastal areas could take an even bigger real estate market hit. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Fearmongering from Michael Burry + the media [06:30] - What’s going on with the Chinese market? [11:33] - Britain = Mississippi and Neymar = rich [14:41] - The shocking data on how much Americans have saved for retirement [17:39] - Homeownership rate for young people may be better than narrative says [20:43] - Factoring in homeowner’s insurance in places like New Orleans Links Big Short trader Michael Burry bets $1.6 billion on stock market crash Michael Burry’s market predictions: Hits, misses, and the reality Mexico surpassed China as the top U.S. trading partner China suspends report on youth unemployment, which was at a record high Is Britain really as poor as Mississippi? Perks of Neymar’s Saudi Arabia football club deal Here’s what a $5M retirement looks like in the U.S. Young homeownership rate actually comparable to the last four decades Mortgage rates and home prices needed to return to pre-pandemic affordability Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We start this week by looking at perma-bear prognosticators and on the flip side, the excitement and danger behind the hype of the “next big industry”. And staying on winners and losers, we’ll examine UPS drivers, the decline in petroleum interest, and Phil Mickelson’s eye-opening bets. We will, of course, finish with our weekly inflation update. Key Takeaways [00:17] - The doom-and-gloom-ers are back [07:49] - The winners and losers of darling tech companies [12:50] - It’s a good time to be a UPS driver [13:50] - While oil is up, undergrad interest is way down [18:31] - Phil Mickelson’s bets [21:06] - What’s driving the decline in inflation? Links John Hussman predicts extreme bubble in stocks will end in tears WeWork - from $47 billion to $270 million NVDA joins 99 companies with the highest P/S multiple within the 500 largest stocks From Apple to Amazon, the staggering cash-on-hand numbers Full-time UPS drivers will earn $170,000 a year, on average, in new contract Undergrad enrollment in petroleum engineering down 75% over the past 10 years Vanguard Energy ETF Since 1995, US Airfares have increased 29% on a nominal basis but have actually declined 36% after adjusting for inflation New book alleges Phil Mickelson wagered over $1 billion, tried to bet on Ryder Cup US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% today The demand for mortgages has evaporated Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As potentially positive economic factors pile up, we look at the market’s recovery, what’s factored into disinflation, and where we go from here. We’ll also examine two strategic competitions: oil vs electricity and real estate vs. the S&P 500. Key Takeaways [03:17] - The tailwinds of deflation [07:49] - Is our power grid ready for mass EV usage? [12:06] - Oil isn’t going anywhere [15:03] - Real estate investment compared to the S&P 500 Links Sam Ro: Everything looked good last week Barry Sternlicht on the ‘category 5 hurricane’ hitting office buildings 6 things that actually cost less than last year, despite inflation Nick Timiraos: Why the drivers of lower inflation matter WTI Oil up 15% in July Goldman Sachs estimates global oil demand has risen to an all-time high Elon Musk’s latest mission: rev up the electricity industry Jeff Currie: oil’s not going anywhere Nick Maggiulli: The Return on Hassle 2010 acres outside Telluride purchased for $130,000 in 40s listed for $67.75M Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As performance numbers roll in from some of the country’s largest companies, we take a look at how the markets are performing here vs. the World and how America became a global economic leader. We also discuss how the market deals with intra-year volatility and check back in on Taylor Swift and Messi as market impactors. Key Takeaways [02:38] - Breaking down the latest earnings numbers [05:00] - How the markets move intra-year and year over year [07:17] - How the rest of the world is faring in comparison to the U.S. [14:36] - T-Swift makes the Fed’s Beige Book [16:38] - Messi is just like us Links Ro: The stock market has Wall Street on its heels CNN Fear and Greed Index Peter Lynch: “I love volatility” WSJ: Europeans are becoming poorer Annual working hours across the world Federal Reserve credits Taylor Swift with boosting hotel revenues through Eras Tour Lionel Messi at Publix Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, we look at what comes from cooling inflation paired with a resilient economy. With the latest inflation numbers in hand, we’ll examine how shelter impacts the numbers, visualize the staggering amount of empty office space, and try to explain what’s going on at Disney. Key Takeaways [00:18] - The latest inflation report and shelter’s role in the numbers [04:21] - What are the “experts” saying? [10:23] - The general economy vs. inflation [11:37] - The empty office conundrum [15:01] - What’s going on with Disney? [20:04] - Tales from our first jobs Links WSJ: Inflation eased to 3% in June, the lowest since early 2021 Goldman: Fed tightening is in its final innings Flight Rader 24: Busiest day for commercial aviation that we’ve ever tracked Visualizing 1 billion square feet of empty office space The empty downtown - a new normal Boston offers tax breaks to turn empty offices into housing Disney World hasn’t felt this empty in years Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we wrap up the week, we take a look at the June jobs report and how it may affect the calls for recession and the Fed’s actions moving forward. We’ll also dissect movement in the electric vehicle, T-Bill, and housing markets and end with our takes on the great American summer blockbusters. Key Takeaways [00:27] - Looking at the newest jobs report [7:15] - T-Bill yields are at their highest in over two decades [10:34] - The implications of interest rates [11:06] - Teslas and the electric car market overall [16:22] - Could we see sub-3% mortgage rates again? [20:30] - We put on our film critic hats to say what American movies need to do Links Ryan Detrick: Takeaways from the new jobs numbers Mark Zandi: “The June employment report was close to perfect” Current Truflation number T-Bills are at their highest rate in over 20 years CNBC: Least affordable car market in modern history The top-selling EVs in the first half of 2023 in the US WSJ: Rising EV inventory on dealership lots will offer test of future demand Antonelli: the sub 3% 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be the greatest gift ever bestowed on US homeowners. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

As we trot into the locker room at the halfway point of this year, we examine the competing ideology of calls for a recession vs. declining inflation leading to a bull market. We’ll also look at the economy’s resiliency, how America is viewed across the world, and the unprecedented play of Shohei Ohtani. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Recapping the markets in the first half of this year [11:04] - Positive milestones in the rental markets [13:46] - The historical probability of market returns [14:55] - Shohei Ohtani is a stud [17:00] - How the U.S. is viewed globally [20:26] - Will Mexico be the next big growth market? [24:21] - America’s aging population Links Barry Ritholtz: What Recession? Major milestones in the rental market History says there’s a higher probability of the stock market finishing up 20% than down for the year Ohtani’s 2 HR, 10K night International public opinion of the U.S. remains positive The US population is older than it has ever been Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, we start by discussing the biggest story in the news, the Titan Submersible tragedy. We’ll also look at the transformation of real estate and stock markets and examine the go-forward outlook of the U.S. economy vs. the World. Key Takeaways [00:22] - Recapping the Titan Submersible tragedy [07:25] - The most expensive U.S. cities to buy a house in 1930 [11:42] - The evolution of participation in the stock market [17:57] - Shifting from a historical to a current look at the markets [24:24] - The U.S. economy vs the EU and the UK Links The booming business of trying to reach the ends of the Earth More than 500 migrants presumed dead after shipwreck off Coast of Greece A $49.99 videogame controller could have been running the Titanic submersible 10 things you may not know about the Great Depression The “More Doctors Smoke Camels” ad campaign The number of stocks accounting for the S&P 500's gain by year CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index continues its YoY decline Months without a 52-week high in the market Europe has fallen behind America and the gap is growing Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We discuss the new CPI data, look back at what the experts predicted, and hopefully put the Fed conversation to rest. We’ll also talk about the potential fading of oil demand and ESG importance, and close with our favorite Indiana Jones movies. Key Takeaways [01:00] - Summarizing inflation data and the Fed’s reaction [05:15] - Did experts see this coming? [14:42] - Are we about to see oil demand begin to tamper? [20:49] - Tesla, Bud Light, and the importance of ESG scores/public opinion [25:09] - Our favorite Indiana Jones editions before the release of the new movie Links Fed pauses rate hikes after 15 consecutive months of increases Price changes over the last year (CPI report) Truflation is at 2.34% Charlie Bilello: Did the experts see this coming? No. Robert Kiyosaki (2/12): Giant crash coming Bloomberg: Global oil demand growth will taper off over the next few years Buffett is buying more Occidental Petroleum stock as oil prices near 2023 lows Patrick Bet-David: Phillip Morris received a higher ESG score than Tesla ESG becoming much less of a talking point on earnings calls Ramp Capital: The king of beer has been dethroned Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

This week, we discuss the two biggest stories in not only the sports world but the world at large. We also dive into how people are living and spending their money and what that could mean for a recession as well as give updates on the bond and oil markets and ChatGPT vs the S&P 500. Key Takeaways [00:58] - Messi’s unprecedented move to the MLS [06:10] - The shocking LIV/PGA merger [09:27] - What does it mean that we’re not seeing significant recessionary indicators? [22:43] - Update on the oil markets [24:04] - The importance of who you listen to for financial advice Links Messi sold more PSG jerseys last year ($130m) than total revenue for the top-earning MLS team, LAFC ($116m) Messi turns down $400M per year contract from Saudis Messi's deal includes profit sharing from Apple and Adidas Players shocked and angry after LIV/PGA merger Tiger Woods Was Offered LIV Golf Contract in $700M-$800M Range Nick Timiraos: Goldman Sachs cuts recession probability down to 25% Scott Grannis: The information we have to date strongly suggests that the Fed is done—no more hikes CNN Fear and Greed Index: Extreme Greed Jeffrey Kleintop: Bull markets don't wait for recessions to be over Charlie Bilello: US Bond Market in drawdown for 34 months, by far the longest in history WSJ: This Rally Is All About a Few Star Stocks Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Stokes’ Managing Partners start by revisiting a point from last week’s episode on down and sideways markets and whether they’re bullish or bearish on a go-forward basis. They’ll also join the discourse on the debt ceiling bill, look at the beginnings of what could be the era of AI, and continue the weekly Fed conversation. Key Takeaways [00:28] - Looking at our down and sideways market [03:48] - What happened with the debt ceiling deal? [10:20] - Are we entering the AI bubble era? [21:39] - Our weekly Fed update Links Nick Maggiulli: Why Down & Sideways Markets are Bullish Cullen Roche: CBO estimates debt ceiling deal will reduce the deficit by 0.2% of GDP Market Sentiment: NVDA is trading at 37x its revenue (P/S) and 202x its earnings (P/E) Charlie Bilello: Top May stock returns Charlie Bilello: A look back at extremes price-to-sale ratios in 2020 Mark Zandi: Over 50% experiencing B2B sales declines Bloomberg: Fed Signal for Rate Pause Takes Pressure Off Hot Jobs Report Lawrence McDonald: Processing the duration/interest rate risk situation Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Before we head into the holiday weekend, Greg and Doug Stokes discuss why and how so much has happened over the last two years with very little market movement. They also talk about the possibility of a bull market quietly brewing during this time of consolidation and finish with a recap of Greg’s trip across the pond. Key Takeaways [01:25] - A 10,000-foot view of the market today [07:09] - Truflation vs. what the government says about inflation [08:46] - Is a new bull market quietly underway? [16:43] - Greg’s economic observations of a trip to London Links Michael Green: USA Truflation down below 3% Axios: Cheaper eggs are on the way Jurrien Timmer: How to think like a bull This forgotten Apple Co-Founder left an estimated $75 Billion on the table Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

Doug and Greg start this week by noting a pod prediction that came true in regard to the latest CPI/inflation numbers. They also look at current and past S&P 500 top 10 holdings to answer a hypothetical investment question on diversification vs. the big tech stalwarts. Finally, they prepare for the ramifications of the debt ceiling debate, check in on Russia/Ukraine, and look back at the results of the student debt moratorium. Key Takeaways [01:04] - Our weekly inflation check-in [05:10] - Tech’s current hold on the S&P 500 top 10 holdings [13:34] - Apple vs the World [18:54] - Explaining the Debt Ceiling debate [24:01] - An update on the Russia/Ukraine conflict [27:39] - What we now know about the 2020 student debt moratorium Links BI: Inflation continued to cool in April Truflation Conor Sen: Owners’ equivalent rent — the turn-down has begun Luis Gonzali: Top 10 S&P 500 Holdings since 1980 Brian Beal: Apple’s market cap is as large as every UK business combined Brookings: How worried should we be if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted? Russia had only one tank in their Victory Day parade Univ. of Chicago - Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

The Stokes Brothers are back this week to discuss their favorite topic, the Federal Reserve. They question the Fed’s decision to raise rates again, look at the latest bank failure, and examine how these occurrences may slow down the economy. Key Takeaways [00:17] - A busy week with a rate hike and more bank failures [08:54] - The effect of large bank failures on regional banks [13:34] - The danger of being all in on a certain strategy or sector [19:04] - The latest snippets from S&P 500 earnings calls/reports [22:48] - Historical market returns when earnings are up and down YOY Links Fed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes Truflation Sven Henrich: 99.2% odds of rate cuts before the end of the year Pranksters posing as Ukraine's president tricked the Fed chair into a phone call Jim Cramer’s April 19th Western Alliance take Federal government seizes First Republic Bank and sells to JPMorgan Chase Ben Carlson: Regional Banking ETF returns vs S&P 500 The top move-out U.S. Metros and their top destinations McDonald’s says people are cutting out ordering fries 'Labor Shortages' mentions outpace 'Job Cuts' during S&P 500 company earnings calls Carlson: Over the last 90+ years the stock market has been more likely to see positive returns, double-digit returns, and up years of 20% or more when earnings are down from one year to the next. Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.