EA Forum Podcast (Curated & popular)

<p> I once ran the monitoring and evaluation department of a large nonprofit in rural Tanzania. We had 25 full-time data collectors who ran surveys with farmers on their crop yields and planting practices. My job was to oversee the team, analyze their data and produce reports with actionable recommendations.</p><p> The field team was incredibly productive and we were collecting tons of data. We were also producing very few actual reports and horrendously behind on everything. This seemed to me like a “time to work harder” problem but reading a business professor's novel about manufacturing helped me see it differently.</p><p> The correct solution was to tell my 25 field staff to stop working for two months.</p><p><strong> The most engrossing book I've read since Harry Potter</strong></p><p> The Goal by Eliyahu Goldratt is a novel about a manager given 6 months to turn around his factory or face closure, and the tactics he uses to get production up. It should not be good. It is very good. I’m not claiming it's great literature but it contains one of those ideas that, once seen, cannot be unseen. </p><p> A system moves at the speed of its slowest component, and nothing you do to [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:55) The most engrossing book Ive read since Harry Potter</p><p>(03:54) Rory, the bottleneck</p><p>(07:09) Bottles as bottlenecks</p><p>(08:23) Some observations on bottlenecks</p><p>(09:39) Conclusion</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> April 8th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7excF9Zsv3gKvAdAZ/the-outsized-benefits-of-removing-bottlenecks-some-personal?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7excF9Zsv3gKvAdAZ/the-outsized-benefits-of-removing-bottlenecks-some-personal</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> “We” in this post refers to CEA leadership, who didn’t write this post.</p><p> In 2025, we grew engagement with CEA's programs by 20–25% across every tier of engagement.</p><p> But we recognize that growing the community is about more than engagement or metrics—at its core, growth is about the bigness of things. How can we claim that we’ve grown the community if the words on the page are the same size?</p><p> To match our ambition off the page, it's time to show ambition on the page. We’re increasing our font size from 15px to 25px across all platforms. You’ll see more from us—clearer text, bigger words, extremely long forum posts.</p><p> What this means</p><ul> <li> All of our programs will be bigger, in the sense that the documents we write about them will be absolutely huge.</li><li> The forum will have a larger font than any other sensible website—a bigger font means more impactful ideas.</li><li> Our events will have larger screens for our ginormous font. This will mean a significant increase in AV costs.</li><li> We’re encouraging local groups to do the same—we’re recommending a 30% font size increase this year, and we’ll be supporting them to reach 20px font size by the [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> April 1st, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EBjcpyfPwhByKeWjM/we-re-growing-cea-is-increasing-its-font-size?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EBjcpyfPwhByKeWjM/we-re-growing-cea-is-increasing-its-font-size</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> I’m excited to launch Highly Engaged EAs: a matchmaking and nuptialization service to optimize tax relief, green card accumulation and more!</p><p><strong> Workstreams</strong></p><p><strong> I Do(nate)</strong></p><p> By marrying EAs in different tax brackets, Highly Engaged EAs reduces average tax burden through joint filing to enable greater giving. A Californian AI safety researcher with a million dollar salary could give an extra $53k/year by tying the knot with an unpaid grad student! </p><p><strong> Til 80,000 Hours do us part</strong></p><p> The place premium is so high in the US that >1,000 people have bought a million dollar gold card! While some roles don’t sponsor visas, spouses always can[1]. We match those looking to move countries with nationals of their desired destination.</p><p><strong> Bang for your Buck</strong></p><p> For full efficiency, Buck Shlegeris and Ajeya Cotra wear multiple hats as the witnesses, officiants and entertainment for weddings we organize.</p><p><strong> Rationally named children </strong></p><p> For those who are interested in having kids, we provide naming guidance based on what really matters: </p><ul> <li> Brevity. Claude BOTECs that each additional syllable to a person's name adds 68 hours to global pronunciation costs. Given that this will disproportionately be time spent by EAs, one-syllable names are a slam dunk.</li></ul><ul> <li> Complementarity: The [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:20) Workstreams</p><p>(00:23) I Do(nate)</p><p>(00:56) Til 80,000 Hours do us part</p><p>(01:17) Bang for your Buck</p><p>(01:29) Rationally named children</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> April 1st, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TLFiwwZGaqgbQhhr7/announcing-highly-engaged-eas?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TLFiwwZGaqgbQhhr7/announcing-highly-engaged-eas</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/TLFiwwZGaqgbQhhr7/i1nb3expdnrnhcuwtfzf" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/TLFiwwZGaqgbQhhr7/i1nb3expdnrnhcuwtfzf" alt="Tax comparison table showing Single versus Married Filing Jointly with savings column." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/TLFiwwZGaqgbQhhr7/lcl1ojirm3xm54dccjep" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/TLFiwwZGaqgbQhhr7/lcl1ojirm3xm54dccjep" alt="Interactive calculator showing assumptions and results for name pronunciation time saved over lifetime." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/TLFiwwZGaqgbQhhr7/enx61mjdamkilbcezxc8" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/TLFiwwZGaqgbQhhr7/enx61mjdamkilbcezxc8" alt="LinkedIn post asking which Sam to blame this November, with a reply saying "Uncle."" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> Epistemic status: Very high confidence in the statistical findings. Genuinely confused about the cause. For reasons that will become obvious, I wanted to publish this post on March 31, but unfortunately I could only get it done today.</p><p> I've been building a classifier to flag potentially misleading content on the EA Forum as part of a side project on epistemics infrastructure. While validating the model, I noticed something I initially assumed was a bug. This is an interim report on that.</p><p> Summary: Every year, on April 1, the rate of posts containing verifiably untrue claims spikes by roughly 2,200% relative to the annual daily average (p < 0.0001, 8 years of Forum data). <br> </p><p><strong> 1. The effect is enormous</strong></p><p> On a typical day, approximately 2 to 4% of Forum posts contain claims that are verifiably false. On April 1, this rises to 57–73%, depending on the year. For context, this is an implausibly large effect by normal social-science standards. I have genuinely never seen anything like it.</p><p><strong> 2. It repeats every year</strong></p><p> This is not a one-off event. The pattern recurs in every year of the dataset.</p><p><strong> 3. "It's only one day" is misleading</strong></p><p> A natural reaction is that [...]</p></br></p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:00) 1. The effect is enormous</p><p>(01:38) 2. It repeats every year</p><p>(01:57) 3. Its only one day is misleading</p><p>(02:57) 4. The false posts are high effort</p><p>(03:21) Possible explanations</p><p>(03:30) Why this matters</p><p>(04:48) Proposed interventions</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> April 1st, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EAokRDmQTjCAWgGdq/an-unexplained-annual-spike-in-false-claims-on-the-ea-forum?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EAokRDmQTjCAWgGdq/an-unexplained-annual-spike-in-false-claims-on-the-ea-forum</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/EAokRDmQTjCAWgGdq/en3rvkx5t2yp9uz63fej" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/EAokRDmQTjCAWgGdq/en3rvkx5t2yp9uz63fej" alt="Line graph titled "Share of EA Forum posts containing demonstrably false claims (average across years)."" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/EAokRDmQTjCAWgGdq/ftop0cixiq6jdyfreoqj" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/EAokRDmQTjCAWgGdq/ftop0cixiq6jdyfreoqj" alt="Line graph showing "Share of EA Forum posts containing demonstrably false claims by year."" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> We're thrilled to announce the founding of RejectDirectly, a new EA-adjacent organization dedicated to closing the global rejection gap.</p><p> For too long, the EA rejection pipeline has been plagued by ineffectiveness. Billions of collective DALYs spend on unsuccessful work trials and interviews. The water waste involved in the mass duplication of Google Docs. The community health is in peril.</p><p> In comes RejectDirectly. By cutting out the middleman we can deliver high-quality, unconditional rejections straight to applicants — no strings attached, no waiting period. No eight-hour work trials where you pour your Claude extra balance into a strategy memo for an organization that just couldn’t bring themselves to reject your heartfelt cover letter.</p><p> How it works: You apply. We reject you. That's it. No interviews, no work trials, no need for culture fit chats.</p><p> Like many orgs in the space, we're happy to forward your application to our partner organizations. Unlike other orgs, they will immediately reject you. We call this our Rejection Cascade™ — one application, up to fifteen guaranteed rejections.</p><p> Our 2026 roadmap:</p><p> We're piloting a browser addon that sends you a push notification rejection before you even finish your cover letter. Early users report feeling "liberated" and [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> April 1st, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5qZdpKEFcGBrHJxDB/rejectdirectly?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/5qZdpKEFcGBrHJxDB/rejectdirectly</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> I went on the Sam Harris podcast again recently. If you want the full non-paywalled episode, I’m able to share it here:</p><p> https://samharris.org/episode/SE6877E700B </p><p> 30 mins of it is also on youtube, spotify, etc. </p><p> The occasion for the podcast was the 10-year anniversary edition of Doing Good Better. So, preparing for the podcast, I collected some relevant facts about what EA has achieved over the last decade, and where the movement stands today. I found the numbers both surprising and inspiring, so I thought I should share them here.</p><p> EAs don't often toot their own horn, and with all that's going on in the world, or on the internet at least, it's easy to lose sight of the big picture. So I think a bit of horn-tooting is at least occasionally warranted, otherwise we’ll only ever focus on the bad and not on the good. And, despite a few subdued years, the EA[1] movement is thriving.</p><p> I’ll break things down by cause area, before looking at EA's recent return to serious growth. </p><p> First, global heath. Since 2015, over $2 billion has been raised for the most effective global health charities, with contributions from over 100,000 donors. The [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 31st, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rSPEisvYw9K49ja2T/300-000-lives-100-million-hens-and-a-world-still-to-save?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rSPEisvYw9K49ja2T/300-000-lives-100-million-hens-and-a-world-still-to-save</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Donating my shares to Lightcone Infrastructure, the Good Food Institute, and the Long-Term Future Fund, because EA refuses to make Mirror's Edge 3</p><h5 data-internal-id="Leaning_into_EA_disillusionment__Why_I_no_longer_believe_in_EA">Leaning into EA disillusionment: Why I no longer believe in EA</h5><p> I bought this EA stock almost thirteen years ago:</p>Leopold Aschenbrenner once said that “people with situational awareness have a lower cost basis in Nvidia than you do”.  I’m not sure if this is exactly what he meant… but close enough, right?<p> Back in the late 2000s and early 2010s, EA was a great company pumping out great, interesting games:</p><ul> <li> Mirror's Edge had a striking art style and showcased a whole new style of first-person parkour gameplay.</li><li> Crysis infamously pushed graphical technology to such extremes that it was like getting a preview of videogame technology 5-10 years in the future.</li><li> Spore was… weird and bad, but its ambition and uniqueness was inspiring.</li><li> The Dead Space games (including the almost weirdly good point-and-shoot Wii spinoff) were pretty creative, and the realism of Battlefield 3 felt like a valuable counterpoint to an increasingly-cartoony Call of Duty series.  Both series felt like they were crafted with a lot of care, despite their big-budget action vibes.</li><li> This was a hidden gem [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:20) Leaning into EA disillusionment: Why I no longer believe in EA</p><p>(02:24) EA is was three radical ideas I want to protect</p><p>(03:57) The soul of EA is in trouble</p><p>(06:10) EA is about maximization, and maximization is perilous</p><p>(09:22) Dont be bycatch</p><p>(10:47) EA and the current funding situation</p><p>(12:20) Abandoning EA, in favor of doing the most good</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 31st, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZegHZBvEeQanrGhpY/giving-up-on-ea-after-13-years?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZegHZBvEeQanrGhpY/giving-up-on-ea-after-13-years</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZegHZBvEeQanrGhpY/xdkyksxygbpfxk4bhj5b" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZegHZBvEeQanrGhpY/xdkyksxygbpfxk4bhj5b" alt="Leopold Aschenbrenner once said that “people with situational awareness have a lower cost basis in Nvidia than you do”. I’m not sure if this is exactly what he meant… but close enough, right?" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZegHZBvEeQanrGhpY/xxcae9anobyty9d29vik" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZegHZBvEeQanrGhpY/xxcae9anobyty9d29vik" alt="Haters will say it’s false, but this was actually a great game. Most of all, it's one of the few big action games that truly seems to care about having coherent themes / ideas." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZegHZBvEeQanrGhpY/c8m1w0ozqs5u71zqeliu" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/ZegHZBvEeQanrGhpY/c8m1w0ozqs5u71zqeliu" alt="Once upon a time, EA took the “Arts” part of “Electronic Arts” seriously, publishing this manifesto about the power of computer games as an expressive medium." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/fb381eea894170d50ef91a27fd1cf084feeff04968bf961d2c92c9b1eb9c4a1c/yszenmsiunjvvij9dmog" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image

<h5 data-internal-id="Summary">Summary</h5><ul> <li> We’re publishing our book, 80,000 Hours, with Penguin on 26 May.</li><li> It's an update of the 80,000 Hours career guide, with a full round of edits, new design, and new content discussing the effect of AI on career choice. We think it's now the best single entry point to our advice.</li><li> We hope publishing it will multiply the impact of our advice.</li><li> One quick way you could help is to preorder a copy (especially from a traditional retailer). It helps increase the chance we get on bestseller lists, and increases our expected reach. Preorder here.</li></ul><h5 data-internal-id="The_new_book">The new book</h5><p> It's called 80,000 Hours: How to Have a Fulfilling Career That Does Good. It covers all of our best advice for having a big, positive impact with your career.</p><p> It's being published by Penguin Random House on the 26th May in the US, and the 28th May in the UK.</p><h5 data-internal-id="Why_did_we_decide_to_publish_this_book_">Why did we decide to publish this book?</h5><p data-internal-id="ftnt_ref1">According to the EA Survey, 80,000 Hours has been the biggest single entry point into effective altruism, and our online career guide has consistently had an outsized impact compared to our other programmes.[1] We think it's probably the best content we’ve ever published [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:11) Summary</p><p>(00:52) The new book</p><p>(01:13) Why did we decide to publish this book?</p><p>(02:11) Whats new in this edition?</p><p>(03:47) How you can help</p><p>(04:45) FAQs</p><p>(10:48) Thank you</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 24th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qbAg8fnAbJQE3SLe9/80-000-hours-is-coming-to-bookstores-in-may?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qbAg8fnAbJQE3SLe9/80-000-hours-is-coming-to-bookstores-in-may</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qbAg8fnAbJQE3SLe9/zi6yjb8dm3oibofk2ttr" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/qbAg8fnAbJQE3SLe9/zi6yjb8dm3oibofk2ttr" alt="Book cover with pie chart showing time allocation across life activities" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/916e8d794aa495c0d1bc453a707e40c74f86c48da7863b220045c1d1f4042121/xmf9jn96kpaipapaf57l" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/916e8d794aa495c0d1bc453a707e40c74f86c48da7863b220045c1d1f4042121/xmf9jn96kpaipapaf57l" alt="Cartoon of patient in hospital bed telling visitor about increasing shareholder value." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> I.</p><p> Imagine you run a charity which gives cows to people in the developing world. Your new boyfriend is a statistician and you want to impress him, so you’ve decided to look into this Monitoring and Evaluation thing he keeps going on about. So you give a bunch of people cows and then follow up a year later, and sure enough the people you gave the cows to are richer, healthier, and happier. You proudly tell this to your boyfriend and expect to reap rewards in the form of admiration, cuddles, and a ‘yes’ to your marriage proposal.</p><p> Your boyfriend, however, isn’t impressed. What if everyone in the country is getting richer, because the country is industrializing? What if the poor people you gave cows to were having an unusually hard time, and then they got back on their feet, and your cows had nothing to do with it? Apparently, in order to get a sample that really says anything about the world, you need to randomly give cows to half the people, and then check whether the people you gave cows to are doing better than the people you didn’t give cows to (a “randomized controlled trial”).</p><p> This [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 10th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QsvFCcDR2TfSj32aM/the-joys-of-cash-benchmarking?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QsvFCcDR2TfSj32aM/the-joys-of-cash-benchmarking</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> No-one knows when AI will begin having transformative impacts upon the world. People aren’t sure and shouldn’t be sure: there just isn’t enough evidence to pin it down. </p><p> But we don’t need to wait for certainty. I want to explore what happens if we take our uncertainty seriously — if we act with epistemic humility. What does wise planning look like in a world of deeply uncertain AI timelines? </p><p> I’ll conclude that taking the uncertainty seriously has real implications for how one can contribute to making this AI transition go well. And it has even more implications for how we act together — for our portfolio of work aimed towards this end.</p><p><strong>  </strong></p><p><strong> AI Timelines</strong></p><p> By AI timelines, I refer to how long it will be before AI has truly transformative effects on the world. People often think about this using terms such as artificial general intelligence (AGI), human level AI, transformative AI, or superintelligence. Each term is used differently by different people, making it challenging to compare their stated timelines. Indeed even an individual's own definition of their favoured term will be somewhat vague, such that even after their threshold has been crossed, they might have [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:58) AI Timelines</p><p>(04:38) Short vs Long Timelines</p><p>(07:05) Broad Timelines</p><p>(17:55) Implications</p><p>(19:46) Hedging</p><p>(20:58) A Different World</p><p>(24:00) Longterm Actions</p><p>(28:33) Conclusions</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 19th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/broad-timelines?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/broad-timelines</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/p5uowohkuof7cbng9rdm" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/p5uowohkuof7cbng9rdm" alt="Graph showing a curve that rises sharply then gradually declines." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/a9jnxufjtirn4qdu7ppm" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/a9jnxufjtirn4qdu7ppm" alt="A line graph showing "Years until first general AI system announced" forecast over time." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/w14nfbk2mj6vxg3frftd" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/w14nfbk2mj6vxg3frftd" alt="Graph showing "Probability of Reaching AI Milestones" with forecast timeline through 2052." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/soghqu5ynquiepqcnu4g" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/soghqu5ynquiepqcnu4g" alt="Stream graph showing data flow for Daniel, Ajeya, and Ege over time." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/jh0o56eamz13vjaxcojl" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/jh0o56eamz13vjaxcojl" alt="Graph showing probability of AGI development declining from 2025 peak through 2040." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px;

<p> Crossposted from my blog</p><p> I am very fortunate to have my job in many ways – I get to talk to, learn from, and give money to amazing people and nonprofits all around the world. I get to allocate a modest amount of resources to incredible organisations that I think are doing some of the best work to improve the world. I don’t have to fundraise for my or my team's salaries anymore. However, there are some things I’ve learned since becoming a philanthropic grantmaker that were either surprising or affected me more strongly than I expected.</p><p> I will outline some of these below. These are not meant to invoke feelings of “oh poor grantmakers who have access to money and influence” but rather “oh, I never considered things from that perspective”. Hopefully, they will also lead to more productive working relationships between funders and advocacy groups.</p><p> Here, I discuss:</p><ul> <li> How challenging the trade-offs are that funders face</li><li> The extremely poor feedback mechanisms that nonprofits have</li><li> How people treat you differently once you have access to funding, and how that changes you</li><li> The weight of saying no to good groups</li><li> Some things that make me feel cynical</li></ul><p><strong> Trade-offs [...]</strong></p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:18) Trade-offs are hard and money is scarce</p><p>(06:35) Nonprofits have bad feedback mechanisms</p><p>(13:00) How people treat you differently (and how that changes you)</p><p>(14:52) Its hard to say no to people</p><p>(16:08) Its easy to become cynical</p><p>(19:38) Wrapping up</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 11th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/umicYzuRsm6okFRKA/what-i-didn-t-expect-about-being-a-funder?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/umicYzuRsm6okFRKA/what-i-didn-t-expect-about-being-a-funder</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> Epistemic status: A bit sad (I know that's not an epistemic status)</p><p><strong> The best development Forum on the internet?</strong></p><p> 3 years ago a headline “FTX SBF blah blah blah” triggered my memory “oh that's right, that effective altruism thing”. <br> <br> A few years earlier I had read “Doing Good Better” in our Northern Ugandan hut, and was excited by how the ideas matched my experience of seeing the BINGOs [1] on the ground here doing not-much-good at all. Soon after my wife dragged me to Cambridge for a year and I joined an EA group. I was drawn in to a beautiful crew of good, ernest people trying to do the best they could with their lives -[2] something I’d only seen before among a few people at church. I was most impressed by their veganism, practising what they preached. </p><p> But after going back to Uganda I forgot about the whole EA thing. But 3 years later the FTX headlines and a google search led me to the EA forum, which to my delight turned out to be the best place on the internet to discuss global health and development. My first foray was a not-very-good post [...]</p></br></br></p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:16) The best development Forum on the internet?</p><p>(01:29) A steady decline</p><p>(02:59) Why?</p><p>(04:34) Is this fine?</p><p>(05:02) Is this less fine?</p><p>(06:29) How to Boost GHD discourse?</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 15th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4jbbjTTJ87baMrkY4/ghd-discussion-here-is-slowly-dying?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4jbbjTTJ87baMrkY4/ghd-discussion-here-is-slowly-dying</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/4jbbjTTJ87baMrkY4/yjeyhlo6ncor9hskwosu" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/4jbbjTTJ87baMrkY4/yjeyhlo6ncor9hskwosu" alt="Line graph titled "EA Forum - Global Health & Development posts: average comments per post (3-month rolling average, 2021-2026)"" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/4jbbjTTJ87baMrkY4/gvpm8dcsbbkuabky1zox" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/4jbbjTTJ87baMrkY4/gvpm8dcsbbkuabky1zox" alt="Bar chart showing 47 curated EA Forum posts by topic category." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> Many of us in this community are in the shocking position of thinking there's a real chance of humanity being wiped out over the next decade or two. Most of the time, we discuss that in rational terms. We talk about probabilities, and threat models, and interventions. We don’t talk as much about the emotions we have about how radically our world might change and about the possibility of it ending entirely. </p><p> There are lots of reasons for not talking about those feelings. For starters, it's often hard to know how we even do feel about it. There isn’t a straightforward societal script for how to feel about such radical world changes. People each have to figure it out for themselves, and feel very different ways. No one wants to sound extreme or crazy by talking about feeling very strongly about it. But they don’t want to sound callous either. And opening up about your feelings and being met without understanding and similarity feels alienating, particularly when it's about something so important. But the biggest reason I don’t talk about it is horror. I don’t want to think about it, and I don’t want to upset others. </p><p> [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(01:58) A range of feelings</p><p>(04:18) How I feel</p><p>(06:46) Different people are different</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 7th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZDKkhoJoS7qgq2wqA/feelings-about-the-end-of-the-world?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZDKkhoJoS7qgq2wqA/feelings-about-the-end-of-the-world</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> I work on the capacity-building team on the Global Catastrophic Risks-half of Coefficient Giving (formerly known as Open Philanthropy). Our remit is, roughly, to increase the amount of talent aiming to prevent unprecedented, globally catastrophic events. These days, we’re mostly focused on AI, and we’ve funded a number of projects and grantees that readers of this post might be familiar with– including MATS, BlueDot Impact, Constellation, 80,000 Hours, CEA, the Curve, FAR.AI's events, university groups, and many other workshops and projects.</p><p> The post aims to make the case that broadly, capacity-building work (including on AI risk) has been and continues to be extremely impactful, and to encourage people to consider pursuing relevant projects and careers.</p><p> This post is written from my personal perspective; that said, my sense is that a number of CG staff and others in the AI safety space share my views. I include some quotes from them at the end of this post.</p><p> I’m writing this post partly out of a desire to correct what I perceive as an asymmetry in terms of how excited I and others at Coefficient Giving are about this kind of work vs. how much people in the EA and AI [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(02:15) The case for capacity-building work</p><p>(04:11) Surveys</p><p>(06:49) Testimonials</p><p>(08:21) Neel Nanda (Senior Research Scientist at Google DeepMind)</p><p>(11:15) Max Nadeau (Associate Program Officer (Technical AI Safety) at Coefficient Giving)</p><p>(12:51) Rachel Weinberg (founder and former head of The Curve, currently at AI Futures Project)</p><p>(14:30) Marius Hobbhann (CEO and founder of Apollo Research)</p><p>(16:38) Adam Kaufman (member of technical staff at Redwood Research)</p><p>(18:10) Gabriel Wu (member of technical staff (alignment) at OpenAI)</p><p>(19:37) Catherine Brewer (Senior Program Associate (AI Governance) at Coefficient Giving)</p><p>(21:12) Aric Floyd (video host for AI in Context)</p><p>(23:12) Ryan Kidd (Director of MATS)</p><p>(25:43) What tends to work?</p><p>(28:34) Whats good to do now?</p><p>(29:31) Who should be doing this work?</p><p>(31:02) What would doing this work look like?</p><p>(31:13) Working at an organization doing good work in the space</p><p>(31:46) Constellation - CEO</p><p>(32:46) Kairos - various early generalist positions</p><p>(33:42) Starting or running your own capacity-building project or organization</p><p>(34:07) Working on a capacity-building project part-time</p><p>(34:30) Subscribing to Multiplier, a Substack with thoughts from our team (and other AI grantmaking staff at CG)</p><p>(34:39) Letting our team know</p><p>(35:03) Social proof</p><p>(35:25) Julian Hazell, AI governance and policy at Coefficient Giving</p><p>(36:19) Trevor Levin, AI governance and policy at Coefficient Giving</p><p>(36:51) Ryan Greenblatt, Chief Scientist at Redwood Research:</p><p>(37:21) Buck Shlegeris, CEO of Redwood Research</p><p>(39:52) Appendix</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 10th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rAqKSSXankvys2Fzu/the-case-for-ai-safety-capacity-building-work?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rAqKSSXankvys2Fzu/the-case-for-ai-safety-capacity-building-work</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

<p> For those not working in the space this probably isn't on your radar, but the animal advocacy movement just secured a huge win with Ahold Delhaize, convincing the fourth-largest supermarket company in the US to set the strongest cage-free policy of any large US retailer:</p><ol> <li> A roadmap with benchmarks to fully eliminate caged egg cartons, expand cage-free offerings, and increase the percentage of cage-free sales. </li><li> A pledge to annually report on its progress. </li><li> At all 2,000+ locations, placing large, promotional shelf tags in front of cage-free cartons to differentiate cage-free and caged cartons for consumers. </li></ol><p> This was a giant campaign. My understanding is that other companies were watching to see if this campaign would succeed or fail, to see if they would need to follow suit. In addition to the animals helped, this win will add pressure for competitors to do the same. </p><p> This was a coordinated effort among many groups, including: Center For Responsible Food Business; Animal Equality; International Council for Animal Welfare; The Humane League; Mercy For Animals; Compassion in World Farming; Coalition to Abolish the Fur Trade and Animal Activist Collective.</p><p> Animal Equality states that this will affect 5-7 million hens. I know a lot [...]</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 4th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2wePKArWWr4Xx6Zvf/some-good-news-ahold-delhaize-to-go-cage-free?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2wePKArWWr4Xx6Zvf/some-good-news-ahold-delhaize-to-go-cage-free</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p>

This is a link post.<p> Forum note: this post embodies the spirit of a new project I—Matt Reardon—am starting to reinvigorate in-person EA communities. I'm hiring a co-founder and I'm interested in meeting others who want to collaborate on this vision. My DMs are open.</p><p> Sequence thinkers will be forgiven and rejoice</p><p> In some fleeting moments lately, I catch glimpses of 2022—the year Effective Altruism's ascent seemed unstoppable. Universally positive (if limited) press, big groups at top universities across the world, a young EA entrepreneur was the darling of the financial industry, the first EA running for Congress calling in enormous financial and personnel resources for his campaign. More than those public-facing facts though, was a feeling on the ground that if you had a good grip on things and a plausible idea, you would get funding, go to the Bay, and make it happen.</p><p> I actually regret how slow I was to see it at the time. You could just do things, and yes, that's always been true, but at that time, you didn’t even have excuses. In my first year as an advisor at 80,000 Hours, I allowed people a lot of excuses. I think this came from [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(02:37) The Retreat</p><p>(07:03) What Greatness Demands</p><p>(10:59) Effective Altruism is Good and Right</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 7th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uHhcqagBBkhFTTGpq/effective-altruism-will-be-great-again?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uHhcqagBBkhFTTGpq/effective-altruism-will-be-great-again</a> </p> <p><strong>Linkpost URL:</strong><br><a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.substack.com%2Fpub%2Ffrommatter%2Fp%2Feffective-altruism-will-be-great" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://open.substack.com/pub/frommatter/p/effective-altruism-will-be-great</a></p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/uHhcqagBBkhFTTGpq/oq3twicu52vytmubgzng" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/uHhcqagBBkhFTTGpq/oq3twicu52vytmubgzng" alt="Two panels showing stick figures: trampolines above, playground equipment below." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try <a href="https://pocketcasts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Pocket Casts</a>, or another podcast app.</em></p></div>

<p> All views are my own, not Anthropic's. This post assumes Anthropic's announcement of RSP v3.0 as background.</p><p> Today, Anthropic released its Responsible Scaling Policy 3.0. The official announcement discusses the high-level thinking behind it. This is a more detailed post giving my own takes on the update.</p><p> First, the big picture:</p><ul> <li> I expect some people will be upset about the move away from a “hard commitments”/”binding ourselves to the mast” vibe. (Anthropic has always had the ability to revise the RSP, and we’ve always had language in there specifically flagging that we might revise away key commitments in a situation where other AI developers aren’t adhering to similar commitments. But it's been easy to get the impression that the RSP is “binding ourselves to the mast” and committing to unilaterally pause AI development and deployment under some conditions, and Anthropic is responsible for that.)</li><li> I take significant responsibility for this change. I have been pushing for this change for about a year now, and have led the way in developing the new RSP. I am in favor of nearly everything about the changes we’re making. I am excited about the Roadmap, the Risk Reports, the move toward external [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(05:32) How it started: the original goals of RSPs</p><p>(11:25) How its going: the good and the bad</p><p>(11:51) A note on my general orientation toward this topic</p><p>(14:56) Goal 1: forcing functions for improved risk mitigations</p><p>(15:02) A partial success story: robustness to jailbreaks for particular uses of concern, in line with the ASL-3 deployment standard</p><p>(18:24) A mixed success/failure story: impact on information security</p><p>(20:42) ASL-4 and ASL-5 prep: the wrong incentives</p><p>(25:00) When forcing functions do and dont work well</p><p>(27:52) Goal 2 (testbed for practices and policies that can feed into regulation)</p><p>(29:24) Goal 3 (working toward consensus and common knowledge about AI risks and potential mitigations)</p><p>(30:59) RSP v3s attempt to amplify the good and reduce the bad</p><p>(36:01) Do these benefits apply only to the most safety-oriented companies?</p><p>(37:40) A revised, but not overturned, vision for RSPs</p><p>(39:08) Q&A</p><p>(39:10) On the move away from implied unilateral commitments</p><p>(39:15) Is RSP v3 proactively sending a race-to-the-bottom signal? Why be the first company to explicitly abandon the high ambition for achieving low levels of risk?</p><p>(40:34) How sure are you that a voluntary industry-wide pause cant happen? Are you worried about signaling that youll be the first to defect in a prisoners dilemma?</p><p>(42:03) How sure are you that you cant actually sprint to achieve the level of information security, alignment science understanding, and deployment safeguards needed to make arbitrarily powerful AI systems low-risk?</p><p>(43:49) What message will this change send to regulators? Will it make ambitious regulation less likely by making companies commitments to low risk look less serious?</p><p>(45:10) Why did you have to do this now - couldnt you have waited until the last possible moment to make this change, in case the more ambitious risk mitigations ended up working out?</p><p>(46:03) Could you have drafted the new RSP, then waited until you had to invoke your escape clause and introduced it then? Or introduced the new RSP as what we will do if we invoke our escape clause?</p><p>(47:29) The new Risk Reports and Roadmap are nice, but couldnt you have put them out without also making the key revision of moving away from unilateral commitments?</p><p>(48:26) Why isnt a unilateral pause a good idea? It could be a big credible signal of danger, which could lead to policy action.</p><p>(49:37) Could a unilateral pause ever be a good idea? Why not commit to a unilateral pause in cases where it would be a good idea?</p><p>(50:31) Why didnt you communicate about the change differently? Im worried that the way you framed this will cause audience X to take away message Y.</p><p>(51:53) Why dont Anthropics and your communications about this have a more alarmed and/or disappointed vibe? I reluctantly concede that this revision makes sense on the merits, but Im sad about it. Arent you?</p><p>(53:19) On other components of the new RSP</p><p>(53:24) The new RSPs commitments related to competitors seem vague and weak. Could you add more and/or strengthen these? They dont seem sufficient as-is to provide strong assuran