“Long-term risks from ideological fanaticism” by David_Althaus, Jamie_Harris, vanessa16, Clare_Diane, Will Aldred

<p> Cross-posted to LessWrong.</p><h3 data-internal-id="Summary">Summary</h3><ul> <li> History's most destructive ideologies—like Nazism, totalitarian communism, and religious fundamentalism—exhibited remarkably similar characteristics:<ul> <li> epistemic and moral certainty</li><li> extreme tribalism dividing humanity into a sacred “us” and an evil “them”</li><li> a willingness to use whatever means necessary, including brutal violence.</li></ul></li><li> Such ideological fanaticism&nbsp;was a major driver of eight of the ten greatest atrocities since 1800, including the Taiping Rebellion, World War II, and the regimes of Stalin, Mao, and Hitler.</li><li> We&nbsp;focus on ideological fanaticism&nbsp;over related concepts like totalitarianism partly because it better captures terminal preferences, which plausibly matter most as we approach superintelligent AI and technological maturity.</li><li> Ideological fanaticism is considerably less influential&nbsp;than in the past, controlling only a small fraction of world GDP. Yet at least hundreds of millions still hold fanatical views, many regimes exhibit concerning ideological&nbsp;tendencies, and the past two decades have seen widespread democratic backsliding.</li><li> The long-term influence of ideological fanaticism&nbsp;is uncertain.&nbsp;Fanaticism faces many disadvantages including a weak starting&nbsp;position, poor epistemics, and difficulty assembling broad coalitions. But it benefits from greater willingness to use extreme measures, fervent mass followings, and a historical tendency to survive and even thrive amid technological and societal upheaval. Beyond complete victory or defeat, multipolarity may [...]</li></ul> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:16) Summary</p><p>(05:19) What do we mean by ideological fanaticism?</p><p>(08:40) I. Dogmatic certainty: epistemic and moral lock-in</p><p>(10:02) II. Manichean tribalism: total devotion to us, total hatred for them</p><p>(12:42) III. Unconstrained violence: any means necessary</p><p>(14:33) Fanaticism as a multidimensional continuum</p><p>(16:09) Ideological fanaticism drove most of recent historys worst atrocities</p><p>(19:24) Death tolls dont capture all harm</p><p>(20:55) Intentional versus natural or accidental harm</p><p>(22:44) Why emphasize ideological fanaticism over political systems like totalitarianism?</p><p>(25:07) Fanatical and totalitarian regimes have caused far more harm than all other regime types</p><p>(26:29) Authoritarianism as a risk factor</p><p>(27:19) Values change political systems: Ideological fanatics seek totalitarianism, not democracy</p><p>(29:50) Terminal values may matter independently of political systems, especially with AGI</p><p>(31:02) Fanaticisms connection to malevolence (dark personality traits)</p><p>(34:22) The current influence of ideological fanaticism</p><p>(34:42) Historical perspective: it was much worse, but we are sliding back</p><p>(37:19) Estimating the global scale of ideological fanaticism</p><p>(43:57) State actors</p><p>(48:12) How much influence will ideological fanaticism have in the long-term future?</p><p>(48:57) Reasons for optimism: Why ideological fanaticism will likely lose</p><p>(49:45) A worse starting point and historical track record</p><p>(50:33) Fanatics intolerance results in coalitional disadvantages</p><p>(51:53) The epistemic penalty of irrational dogmatism</p><p>(54:21) The marketplace of ideas and human preferences</p><p>(55:57) Reasons for pessimism: Why ideological fanatics may gain power</p><p>(56:04) The fragility of democratic leadership in AI</p><p>(56:37) Fanatical actors may grab power via coups or revolutions</p><p>(59:36) Fanatics have fewer moral constraints</p><p>(01:01:13) Fanatics prioritize destructive capabilities</p><p>(01:02:13) Some ideologies with fanatical elements have been remarkably resilient and successful</p><p>(01:03:01) Novel fanatical ideologies could emerge--or existing ones could mutate</p><p>(01:05:08) Fanatics may have longer time horizons, greater scope-sensitivity, and prioritize growth more</p><p>(01:07:15) A possible middle ground: Persistent multipolar worlds</p><p>(01:08:33) Why multipolar futures seem plausible</p><p>(01:10:00) Why multipolar worlds might persist indefinitely</p><p>(01:15:42) Ideological fanaticism increases existential and suffering risks</p><p>(01:17:09) Ideological fanaticism increases the risk of war and conflict</p><p>(01:17:44) Reasons for war and ideological fanaticism</p><p>(01:26:27) Fanatical ideologies are non-democratic, which increases the risk of war</p><p>(01:27:00) These risks are both time-sensitive and timeless</p><p>(01:27:44) Fanatical retributivism may lead to astronomical suffering</p><p>(01:29:50) Empirical evidence: how many people endorse eternal extreme punishment?</p><p>(01:33:53) Religious fanatical retributivism</p><p>(01:40:45) Secular fanatical retributivism</p><p>(01:41:43) Ideological fanaticism could undermine long-reflection-style frameworks and AI alignment</p><p>(01:42:33) Ideological fanaticism threatens collective moral deliberation</p><p>(01:47:35) AI alignment may not solve the fanaticism problem either</p><p>(01:53:33) Prevalence of reality-denying, anti-pluralistic, and punitive worldviews</p><p>(01:55:44) Ideological fanaticism could worsen many other risks</p><p>(01:55:49) Differential intellectual regress</p><p>(01:56:51) Ideological fanaticism may give rise to extreme optimization and insatiable moral desires</p><p>(01:59:21) Apocalyptic terrorism</p><p>(02:00:05) S-risk-conducive propensities and reverse cooperative intelligence</p><p>(02:01:28) More speculative dynamics: purity spirals and self-inflicted suffering</p><p>(02:03:00) Unknown unknowns and navigating exotic scenarios</p><p>(02:03:43) Interventions</p><p>(02:05:31) Societal or political interventions</p><p>(02:05:51) Safeguarding democracy</p><p>(02:06:40) Reducing political polarization</p><p>(02:10:26) Promoting anti-fanatical values: classical liberalism and Enlightenment principles</p><p>(02:13:55) Growing the influence of liberal democracies</p><p>(02:15:54) Encouraging reform in illiberal countries</p><p>(02:16:51) Promoting international cooperation</p><p>(02:22:36) Artificial intelligence-related interventions</p><p>(02:22:41) Reducing the chance that transformative AI falls into the hands of fanatics</p><p>(02:27:58) Making transformative AIs themselves less likely to be fanatical</p><p>(02:36:14) Using AI to improve epistemics and deliberation</p><p>(02:38:13) Fanaticism-resistant post-AGI governance</p><p>(02:39:51) Addressing deeper causes of ideological fanaticism</p><p>(02:41:26) Supplementary materials</p><p>(02:41:39) Acknowledgments</p><p>(02:42:22) References</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> February 12th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EDBQPT65XJsgszwmL/long-term-risks-from-ideological-fanaticism?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EDBQPT65XJsgszwmL/long-term-risks-from-ideological-fanaticism</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/EDBQPT65XJsgszwmL/zqlppdx0qcv4vwe6h2im" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/EDBQPT65XJsgszwmL/zqlppdx0qcv4vwe6h2im" alt="A stacked bar chart titled "Death counts from different types of regimes."" style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/031cf0b418153274b989e7b27c989e2ca47fc9e4db5a1b731240e4cbe850d13e/vv9rxfzak9yrkzcduqcl" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/031cf0b418153274b989e7b27c989e2ca47fc9e4db5a1b731240e4cbe850d13e/vv9rxfzak9yrkzcduqcl" alt="Table showing "Worst ten atrocities since 1800" with ideologies, descriptions, and death tolls." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/a077564119fd50efc7228618bdcd9bb1deffb2b030d376af3dde949da5d989e1/ickw8yshp7xttwefnlpp" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/a077564119fd50efc7228618bdcd9bb1deffb2b030d376af3dde949da5d989e1/ickw8yshp7xttwefnlpp" alt="Line graph showing "Liberal Democracy Index, 1789 to 2024" with population-weighted world data trending upward." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. 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