“Broad Timelines” by Toby_Ord

<p> No-one knows when AI will begin having transformative impacts upon the world. People aren’t sure and shouldn’t be sure: there just isn’t enough evidence to pin it down. </p><p> But we don’t need to wait for certainty. I want to explore what happens if we take our uncertainty seriously — if we act with epistemic humility. What does wise planning look like in a world of deeply uncertain AI timelines? </p><p> I’ll conclude that taking the uncertainty seriously has real implications for how one can contribute to making this AI transition go well. And it has even more implications for how we act together — for our portfolio of work aimed towards this end.</p><p><strong> &nbsp;</strong></p><p><strong> AI Timelines</strong></p><p> By AI timelines, I refer to how long it will be before AI has truly transformative effects on the world. People often think about this using terms such as artificial general intelligence (AGI), human level AI, transformative AI, or superintelligence. Each term is used differently by different people, making it challenging to compare their stated timelines. Indeed even an individual's own definition of their favoured term will be somewhat vague, such that even after their threshold has been crossed, they might have [...]</p> <p>---</p><p><strong>Outline:</strong></p><p>(00:58) AI Timelines</p><p>(04:38) Short vs Long Timelines</p><p>(07:05) Broad Timelines</p><p>(17:55) Implications</p><p>(19:46) Hedging</p><p>(20:58) A Different World</p><p>(24:00) Longterm Actions</p><p>(28:33) Conclusions</p> <p>---</p> <p><b>First published:</b><br/> March 19th, 2026 </p> <p><b>Source:</b><br/> <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/broad-timelines?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Source+URL+in+episode+description&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/broad-timelines</a> </p> <p>---</p> <p>Narrated by <a href="https://type3.audio/?utm_source=TYPE_III_AUDIO&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_content=Narrated+by+TYPE+III+AUDIO&utm_term=ea_forum&utm_campaign=ai_narration" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TYPE III AUDIO</a>.</p> <p>---</p><div style="max-width: 100%";><p><strong>Images from the article:</strong></p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/p5uowohkuof7cbng9rdm" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/p5uowohkuof7cbng9rdm" alt="Graph showing a curve that rises sharply then gradually declines." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/a9jnxufjtirn4qdu7ppm" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/a9jnxufjtirn4qdu7ppm" alt="A line graph showing "Years until first general AI system announced" forecast over time." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/w14nfbk2mj6vxg3frftd" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/w14nfbk2mj6vxg3frftd" alt="Graph showing "Probability of Reaching AI Milestones" with forecast timeline through 2052." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/soghqu5ynquiepqcnu4g" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/soghqu5ynquiepqcnu4g" alt="Stream graph showing data flow for Daniel, Ajeya, and Ege over time." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/jh0o56eamz13vjaxcojl" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/jh0o56eamz13vjaxcojl" alt="Graph showing probability of AGI development declining from 2025 peak through 2040." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/dgc94bgrju1ttu8sv38y" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/dgc94bgrju1ttu8sv38y" alt="Graph showing a probability distribution curve peaking around 2025, declining through 2080." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/yrhrl79lnewh2nenxkdl" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/yrhrl79lnewh2nenxkdl" alt="Line graph comparing model-based and judgement-based forecasts for TAI/AGI probability over time." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/wufw2zxlruchaoxc6h27" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/wufw2zxlruchaoxc6h27" alt="Graph showing probability of HLMI forecasts from 2025 to 2100, comparing 2023 and 2022 aggregate forecasts." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/clx5kahhhnmzqbst9l0n" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/clx5kahhhnmzqbst9l0n" alt="Graph showing a curve with peak around 2038, declining rightward." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/e1zzdgkftzuopxdwbklu" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/e1zzdgkftzuopxdwbklu" alt="Graph titled "Probability of Reaching AI Milestones" showing probability density over time from 2027 to 2052." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><hr style="margin-top: 24px; margin-bottom: 24px;" /><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/rkazs2wghx7ofzesxnba" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/HCR2AE9it279ggiZT/rkazs2wghx7ofzesxnba" alt="Graph showing "Probability of Reaching AI Milestones" with forecast curve through 2048." style="max-width: 100%;" /></a><p><em>Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. 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