Doom Debates!

Did you know there’s something called the Survival and Flourishing Fund, and right now it’s giving away $20 to $40 million in grants. The application deadline is April 22nd. 😱I’m personally involved as a recommender in the 2026 round, and I’m here to make sure you don’t miss this. If you have a project that could help the world — particularly around AI existential risk — you should apply ASAP!What Is the Survival and Flourishing Fund?The Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF) is a grantmaking program funded by Jaan Tallinn, one of the most prolific funders of charitable causes in the AI safety and effective altruism ecosystem.Jaan was a core team member on Kazaa, then a founding engineer at Skype, then got into crypto early and did well. He started an investment arm called Metaplanet and led the Series A for a couple companies you might have heard of: “DeepMind” and “Anthropic”. He’s one of the largest shareholders of Anthropic right now.There’s a delicious irony to this whole funding round. As we watch Anthropic take off and generate enormous value in AI capabilities, some of that wealth is flowing back through one of their earliest investors into charitable causes — including existential risk reduction. You could, in a very real sense, take some of Anthropic’s money and use it for good.What Gets Funded?It all comes down to Jaan’s philanthropic priorities.AI Extinction RiskThis is priority number one — reducing humanity’s risk of destroying itself with AI. As Jaan writes on his website: “I wish more people would wake up to this issue since literally everyone under the age of 60 is personally at risk.”He breaks AI extinction risk work into two categories:Restrictive efforts — things like certifications on large data centers, speed limits on training runs, liability laws, labeling requirements (disclosing whether you’re interacting with a human or a machine), veto committees for large-scale model deployments, and global off switches. There is so much technology and policy work to be done across all of these.Constructive efforts — approaches that accept AI may be coming regardless and try to make it go as well as possible. This includes collective intelligence enhancement, AI health tech, “protective moralities” that could help an uncontrollable AI treat us well (even as a last-ditch effort, it’s better than nothing), guaranteed safe AI through human-legible quantitative safety guidelines, and hardware-level controls like automatic shutdown and reporting conditions.Some of these constructive efforts look a lot like restrictive efforts, just resigned to AI already arriving — running behind the train instead of standing in front of it holding a stop sign. But the philosophy is simple: throw everything at the problem. Let a thousand flowers bloom.The Tracks: Freedom and FairnessBeyond the main track (where I’m a recommender, alongside five others), SFF runs two specialized tracks:The Freedom Track asks: how can we avoid concentrations of authority and support uses of AI that strengthen freedom for humans and humanity? This includes protecting meaningful freedom of speech, ensuring the continuation of individual liberties like privacy and private property, and maintaining sovereignty for self-governing territories. (If you’ve heard Vitalik Buterin’s episode on Doom Debates about d/acc, this will resonate.)The Fairness Track starts from the premise that AI is a force multiplier for those who wish to control others. It asks: how can we support the use of AI to empower the disempowered? This means empowering the global majority with regard to AI technology, resisting monopolistic practices in AI development, diffusing conflicts and abuses of power, and fostering inclusivity in AI governance.Each of these tracks has three dedicated recommenders evaluating applications. If you’ve ever thought, “Why is everyone focused on the technology of preventing AI from killing us? What about the scenario where we’re all still alive but dealing with massive unfairness?” — well, SFF has an entire track with $3 million-plus in funding just for that.Theme RoundsSFF also runs theme rounds in climate change, animal welfare, and human self-enhancement. Jaan has thought of everything — spreading his bets like a good investor across different possible futures and different mechanisms of impact.How the Process WorksYou submit an application. That’s it. It’s not a super hard application — you detail what you’re doing, how much money you need, and what you’ll spend it on.Once submitted, there’s a two-phase process:Phase 1: Speculation Grants. About 40 speculators — including names like Eliezer Yudkowsky, Nate Soares, Andrew Critch, David Kruger, Oliver Habryka, Roman Yampolskiy, Tsvi Benson-Tilsen, and Zvi Mowshowitz — evaluate applications and may issue smaller initial grants. An individual speculator’s budget is on the order of $250,000, so these grants are smaller but fast: you could hear back as early as May 6th.Phase 2: The S-Process. A d

David Sirota helped create “Don’t Look Up” sometimes feels like we’re living inside his movie. Does he share my belief that the looming planetary threat is rogue AI?Sirota is an award-winning investigative journalist, bestselling author, and former speechwriter for Bernie Sanders. He was nominated for an Oscar for co-writing the story of Don’t Look Up.Find our more about David’s work at The Lever: https://www.levernews.com/Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:01:20 — Introducing David Sirota00:04:34 — Why David Fights Against Power and the Concentration of Power00:13:46 — From NAFTA to AI: The Warnings We Ignored00:22:05 — How Big Will the AI “Jobpocalypse” Be?00:25:28 — Superintelligence & the Parallel to Don’t Look Up00:28:37 — What’s Your P(Doom)™?00:31:44 — The Speed of the AI Threat00:36:26 — Society Is Losing a Collective Capacity to Focus00:38:34 — Is Climate Change David’s Biggest Existential Concern?00:45:01 — David Reacts to Bernie Sanders’ Data Center Moratorium Proposal00:49:11 — Can We Build The “Off Button”?00:52:08 — “Don’t Look Up” x AGI Mashup00:54:35 — Why There’s Still Hope00:58:14 — Living in “Don’t Look Up”00:59:46 — Wrap-Up: Where to Follow Major AI NewsLinksWatch Don't Look Up — https://www.netflix.com/gb/title/81252357 The Lever, investigative news outlet — https://www.levernews.com/David Sirota on X — https://x.com/davidsirotaDavid Sirota, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_SirotaMaster Plan podcast — https://the.levernews.com/master-plan/David Sirota, “Hostile Takeover” on Amazon — https://www.amazon.com/Hostile-Takeover-Corruption-Conquered-Government/dp/0307237354The Three-Body Problem (novel), Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Three-Body_Problem_(novel)WarGames (1983 film), Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WarGamesAdam McKay, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_McKayWatch Don’t Look Up — https://www.netflix.com/title/81252357AI 2027 scenario — https://ai-2027.com/Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

The popular debate show, Middle Ground by Jubilee, invited me on to take the "anti-AI" side back in April 2024.This highlight reel of the episode shows my experience of the discussion.I'm a lifelong techno-optimist, and it's unnatural for me to represent an anti-tech position. It's just that our AI labs are admitting they're on the path to superintelligence they don't know how to control, which implies we're all about to die and the universe will be robbed of all value forever before our kids grow up. Other than that one little consideration, I'm normally pro-tech!Timestamps00:00:00 — Why Liron is Worried about AI00:02:13 — The Nuclear Analogy00:02:43 — Human Evolution and Neuralink00:03:14 — The AI Labs’ Own WarningsLinksFull episode on YouTube —https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47fGrqzoFr8Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Multiple live callers join this month's Q&A as we react to Bernie Sanders and AOC's data center moratorium, the sudden shutdown of SORA 2, and the record breaking "Stop the AI Race" protest.I explain why Claude Code has me claiming a 700% productivity boost, what that means for takeoff timelines and debate instrumental convergence.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:01:08 — Can AI Train on Its Own Data to Reach Superintelligence?00:03:42 — Are We in the Takeoff? 700% Faster with Claude Code00:04:27 — EJJ Joins: Is Instrumental Convergence Really That Dangerous?00:16:44 — The Positive Feedback Loop Problem00:20:09 — S-Risk, Consciousness, and Objective Morality00:22:27 — Futarchy and Prediction Markets00:24:31 — Low P(Doom) Arguments and Bayesian Updates00:31:05 — Lee Cyrano Joins: Superintelligence Won’t Matter for Decades01:02:45 — Lesaun Joins: Are There Adults in the Room?01:17:39 — Connor Leahy: “There Are No Adults in the Room”01:19:51 — Bernie Sanders Calls for a Data Center Moratorium01:24:23 — Claude Code Anecdotes and Audience Q&A01:35:49 — The Stop the AI Race Protest in San Francisco01:41:38 — Known Unknowns and Risk Assessment01:45:03 — From Waymo to Existential Risk01:51:28 — Closing: The Road to One Million SubscribersLinksQuintin Pope vs Liron Shapira debate on Doom Debates — https://lironshapira.substack.com/p/ai-alignment-is-solved-phd-researcherCAP theorem, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAP_theoremGoogle Cloud Spanner, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanner_(database)Newcomb’s problem, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradoxGödel’s incompleteness theorems, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del%27s_incompleteness_theoremsDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Dr. Quintin Pope, PhD, is one of the few critics of AI doomerism who is truly fluent in the concepts and arguments. In Oct, 2023 he joined me for a debate in Twitter Spaces where he argued that AI alignment was basically already solved.His “inside view” on machine-learning forced me to update my position, but could he knock me off the doom train?Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:43 — Introductions00:01:22 — Quintin's Opening Statement00:02:32 — Liron's Opening Statement00:05:10 — Has RLHF Solved the Alignment Problem?00:07:52 — AI Capabilities Are Constrained by Training Data00:10:52 — Defining ASI and Could RLHF Align a Superintelligence?00:13:13 — Quintin Is More Optimistic Than OpenAI00:14:16 — What Is ASI in Your Mind?00:15:57 — AI in 5 Years (2028) & AI Coding Agents00:19:05 — Continuous or Discontinuous Capability Gains?00:19:39 — DEBATE: General Intelligence Algorithm in Humans00:30:02 — The Only Coherent Explanation of Humans Going to the Moon00:34:01 — Are We "Fully Cooked" as a General Optimizer?00:35:53 — Common Mistake in Forecasting Superintelligence00:42:22 — 'Neat' vs 'Scruffy': Will Interpretable Structure Emerge Inside Neural Nets?00:48:57 — Does This Disagreement Actually Matter for P(Doom)?00:54:33 — Thought Experiment: Could You Have Predicted a Species Would Go to the Moon?00:57:26 — The Basin of Attraction for Superintelligence00:59:35 — Does a Superintelligence Even Exist in Algorithm Space?01:09:59 — Closing Statements01:12:40 — Audience Q&A01:19:35 — Wrap UpLinksOriginal Twitter Spaces debate (Quintin Pope vs. Liron Shapira) — https://x.com/i/spaces/1YpJkwOzOqEJj/peekQuintin Pope on Twitter/X — https://twitter.com/QuintinPope5Quintin Pope, Alignment Forum profile — https://www.alignmentforum.org/users/quintin-popeInstructGPT, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InstructGPTAIXI, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIXIAlphaZero, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaZeroMuZero, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MuZeroDeepMind AlphaZero and MuZero page — https://deepmind.google/research/alphazero-and-muzero/Midjourney — https://www.midjourney.com/DALL-E, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DALL-EOpenAI Superalignment announcement — https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/Shard Theory sequence on LessWrong — https://www.lesswrong.com/s/nyEFg3AuJpdAozmoX“Evolution Provides No Evidence for the Sharp Left Turn” — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hvz9qjWyv8cLX9JJR/evolution-provides-no-evidence-for-the-sharp-left-turn“My Objections to ‘We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky’” — https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wAczufCpMdaamF9fy/my-objections-to-we-re-all-gonna-die-with-eliezer-yudkowsky“AI is Centralizing by Default; Let’s Not Make It Worse” — https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zd5inbT4kYKivincm/ai-is-centralizing-by-default-let-s-not-make-it-worseSingular Learning Theory, Alignment Forum sequence — https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/mqwA5FcL6SrHEQzoxDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

My new interview on Robert Wright's Nonzero Podcast where we dive into the agentic AI explosion. Bob is an exceptionally sharp interviewer who connects the dots between job displacement and AI doom.I highly recommend becoming a premium subscriber to Bob’s Nonzero Newsletter so you can watch the Overtime segment in every interview he does — https://nonzero.orgOur discussion continues in Overtime for premium subscribers — https://www.nonzero.org/p/early-access-the-allure-and-dangerLinksNonzero Podcast on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@nonzeroRobert Wright, The God Test (book, Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/God-Test-Artificial-Intelligence-Reckoning/dp/1668061651Timestamps00:00:00 — Introduction and Today's Topics00:03:22 — Vibe Coding and the Agentic Revolution00:08:57 — The Future of Employment00:17:57 — Agents and What They Can Do00:27:59 — The "Can It" and "Will It" Framework for AI Doom00:30:27 — OpenClaw and Liron's Experience with AI Agents00:36:45 — The Case for Slowing Down AI Development00:43:28 — Anthropic, the Pentagon, and AI Politics00:48:37 — AI Safety Leadership Concerns00:52:06 — Closing and Overtime TeaseDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Noah Smith is an economist and author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.He returns to Doom Debates to share a massive update to his P(Doom), and things get a little heated.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:41 — Welcome Back Noah Smith!00:01:40 — Noah's P(Doom) Update00:03:57 — The Chatbot-Genie-God Framework00:05:14 — What's Your P(Doom)™00:09:59 — Unpacking Noah's Update00:16:56 — Why Incidents of Rogue AI Lower P(Doom)00:20:04 — Noah's Mainline Doom Scenario: Much Worse Than COVID-1900:23:29 — Society Responds After Growing Pains00:29:25 — Agentic AI Contributed to Noah's Position00:31:35 — Should Yudkowsky Get Bayesian Credit?00:33:59 — Are We Communicating the Right Way with Policymakers?00:40:16 — Finding Common Ground on AI Policy00:47:07 — Wrap-Up: People Need to Be More ScaredLinksDoom Debate with Noah Smith — Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwmJ-OnK2I4Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinionNoah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blogDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe