Bloomberg Surveillance

Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson discusses constraints on regional banks, themes for the markets in 2024 and reducing the Magnificent Seven to the Magnificent Four. He speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Lisa Abramowicz, Jonathan Ferro and Annmarie Hordern. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyThursday February 1st, 2024Featuring: Rebecca Patterson, Bretton Woods Committee board member, on markets Komal Sri Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies President, on the Fed Margie Patel, Senior PM at Allspring Global Investments, on markets Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg SurveillanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

JP Morgan Securities Chief Economist Bruce Kasman discusses what he expects from the Fed's decision today, dynamics in the labor market and the relevance of the Fed. He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney Wednesday January 31th, 2024Featuring: Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Senior Equity Analyst, on tech earnings Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President/Founder, on markets Robert D. Kaplan, Author on geopolitics Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

General Motors Co. CEO Mary Barra discusses a slowdown in electric vehicle adoption and the launch of plug-in hybrid models in their North America line-up. She speaks to Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyTuesday January 30th, 2024Featuring: Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder, on the economy Adm. James Stravidis, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, on US reaction to Iran Nadia Lovell, UBS Senior U.S. Equity Strategist, Global Wealth Management on markets Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Citizens Bank of Edmond CEO Jill Castilla speaks on the outlook for the banking sector in 2024, commercial real estate and car loans with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa AbramowiczSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

NYSE Group President Lynn Martin joins the roundtable to discuss principal trends that may share global markets this year with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyMonday January 29th, 2024Featuring: Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Equity Strategy on markets Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist Dennis Gartman, Dennis Gartman, University of Akron Endowment Chairman & former publisher of The Gartman Letter on markets Lisa Mateo, Bloomberg News reporter Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo says the administration is not declaring victory over inflation and it knows there is more work to do when it comes to the economy. He says President Joe Biden continues to make progress on putting money back in the pockets of Americans. Adeyemo spoke with Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz, Jonathan Ferro, and Annmarie Hordern from the White House.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Mohamed El-Erian is concerned that economic growth could "disappoint" and the Federal Reserve won't cut rates in line with expectations. He speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jon Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie HordernSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE each morning on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. Friday January 26th, 2024 Featuring: Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments CEO and CIO David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management Frank McCourt, Founder and Executive Chairman of Project Liberty AND Executive Chairman of McCourt Global Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US sanctions have succeeded in reducing the amount of oil Iran exports, a White House energy adviser said Thursday. Iranian oil exports have been cut from as much as 3 million barrels a day to as little as 1 million barrels a day, President Joe Biden’s energy security adviser Amos Hochstein speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jon Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie HordernSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The likely face-off between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump in November will stir turmoil in the mergers-and-acquisitions market this year, according to PJT Partners’ founder Paul Taubman. He speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jon Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE each morning on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. Thursday January 25th, 2024Featuring: Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Chairman Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg Screentime Newsletter Garrett Nelson, CFRA Research Senior Equity Analyst and VP Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE each morning on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. Wednesday January 24th, 2024 Featuring: Victoria Fernandez Chief Market Strategist Crossmark Global Investments Brian Wieser, Madison and Wall Principal Amy Wu Silverman, managing director and head of derivatives strategy for RBC Joe Theismann, former NFL Quarterback Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says he thinks Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley will drop out of the race before the primary in her home state of South Carolina. He spoke with Jon Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern on "Bloomberg Surveillance."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

IBM Vice Chairman and former US National Economic Council Director under the Trump administration Gary Cohn says the Fed cycle is finally becoming more normal. Speaking to Bloomberg Surveillance host Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern, Cohn adds US consumers partly feel bad though because of the peculiar compounding effect of inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE each morning on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. Tuesday January 23rd, 2024 Featuring: Luke Kawa, UBS Asset Management Allocation Strategist Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist Sylvia Jablonski, Defiance ETFs CEO and CIO Gene Munster, Managing Partner and co-founder at Deepwater Asset Management Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo and Michael Barr are now LIVE on YouTube. Watch Surveillance live each morning, from 7-10 AM Eastern, on the Bloomberg Podcasts YouTube Channel. Watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhwsLGvjjggSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE each morning on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. Monday January 22nd, 2024 Featuring: Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equity Advisory Solutions BNY Mellon Wealth Management Scott Chronert, Citi Research Managing director Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy Jennifer Lee, BMO Capital Markets Senior Economist and Managing Director Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Damian SassowerThursday, January 18th, 2024Featuring: Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon EMEA macro strategist Komal Sri-Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies President Amanda Agati, PNC Financial Services Group CIO Margie Patel, Allspring Global senior portfolio manager Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Damian SassowerFriday, January 19th, 2024Featuring: Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Principal Greg Daco, EY Chief economist Brian Levitt, Invesco Global Market Strategist Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Partner/Head of Economic Research Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brad Stone, Bloomberg News Senior Executive Editor for Global Tech, shares his AI insights from the World Economic Forum in Davos. Wedbush's Dan Ives details his takeaways from the CES conference. Dana Telsey of the Telsey Advisory Group discusses the strength of the US consumer in the wake of retail sales data. Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders ties in Led Zepplein with her markets outlook. Hosted by Tom Keene and Damian Sassower. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. He is definitive on Amazon of course, the Trophy book right now Amazon Unbound. Jeff Bezos The Invention of a Global Empire. He joins us from Davos, the meetings of the World Economic Forum at brad Thrilled to have you with Bloomberg Surveillance this morning. Let me cut to the chase. I see AI at Microsoft is countable, revenue, co pilot, azore all the rest of it. And I see a lot of other AI is smoking mirrors. How do you parse between legitimate artificial intelligence future and the makeup, the fantasy, the comedy of it. How do you parse? Oh? Boy, well, thanks Tom for having me. Hi Damien. Look, I've been covering Silicon Valley long enough that I've seen this story play out before. We're at the beginning of a hype cycle. There will be disappointment a lot of you know, the visions of Agi computers that reason that change our world, they seem far fetched, you know. There there we talk about a trough of dissolutionment that will happen. But you're right that there you know that there are real revenues, real benefits. Yesterday, Microsoft announced that it was bringing its open AI powered co pilot to the office seat, so you know at twenty dollars a month, making it available small business as an individual users. That's real. Yeah, brtt I signed up last night. I was going to be reack. Can you see me, Damien? Can you see me do an artificial Intelli get out of the way. Fred. If I look at this, can you say that the Magnificent seven they seem to be away from the hype. How is the Magnificent seven going to create revenue and cash flow out of AI? Yeah? I mean they're the best position because they're they're they're selling the picks and shovels to all the miners. You know, this is Alphabet and Amazon and Microsoft running the world's most powerful cloud services and making basically AI available as a service to every university and startup in consumer goods company that you know wants to use these tools for a variety. It's it could be R and D could be customer service. So you know, even even though that'll be a work in progress there, the revenues will be real. My question for Santia Tom by the way yesterday was you know, do you control any of this. You're you're investors in open AI. You don't even have a board seat. You're like in the back of the bus with a seatbelt, and it's got such peculiar governance. And he said, you know, it's fine, we just want stability. So I don't know if I quite believe it. I think they're outsourcing a key competency. But they're in the cappards seat, the driver's seat because they did make that investment. I'm sure the Amazons and the Googles of the world wish that they hadn't passed up the open AI opportunity when they had the chance. Well, Brad, I appreciate you answering those two questions from that artificial personification of Tom Keen that wasn't really Tom Keen answering those questions, And my question for you is talk to me about deep fake videos X these platforms. What's to stop open AI and chat, GPT and all this artificial nonsense from mudding the waters ahead of the election? Yeah? Well, what it's funny because it is really the talk of the conference that you've got national elections in some seventy seven countries around the world. Half the world's population could head to the polls at the same time as this enormously powerful technology is made available to people, and what's to stop it from being missus? I know this is going to carry a lot of water with our listeners, but you know they are raising their right hand and putting their left hand over their hearts and saying, we're not going to allow our technology to be abusing. They really understand the risks. I mean, I mean do they? I think they do? They? I think they do because we've all seen this movie before and meta its reputation went through the meat grinder because social media was perverted. You know, yesterday, it's no surprise that Sam Altman's here. He spent time with us at the Bloomberg House, and before our interview, they posted a statem

Julie Norman, University College London professor, discusses Donald Trump's victory at the Iowa Caucuses. Claudia Sahm, founder of Sahm Consulting, gives her take on the Fed's approach to interest rates. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President, talks about the inflation environment. Barry Ritholtz, host of the Bloomberg Masters in Business podcast, breaks down the week ahead in markets. Ken Rogoff, Harvard Professor and former IMF Chief Economist, takes a look at inflation in the face of our current geopolitical situation. Hosted by Tom Keene and Damian Sassower.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Large Cap Bank Analyst, and Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, break down Friday's 4Q bank earnings releases that included record NII for JPMorgan and disappointing results for Citi. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, discusses the latest in the Middle East after the US and UK launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, overviews his outlook on global markets and says he expects consumer inflation to get stuck at 3%. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses the latest in sports streaming after a strong year for NFL viewership.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, breaks down December's hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation data. Erika Najarian, UBS Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance Equity Research Analyst, previews Friday's bank earnings releases. Michael Collins, PGIM Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager, predicts the Fed will wait to cut interest rates. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, discusses the latest in the Middle East as tensions continue to escalate. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses the latest on Boeing and the airlines sector amid a nationwide grounding of the 737 Max 9 aircraft. Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, expects a positive nominal growth environment and a continued fall in inflation. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Chief Economist, says a mild recession is still a possibility despite strong economic data. Matthew Bartlett, Darby Field Advisors Principal & Republican strategist, previews the final GOP debate before the Iowa Caucuses begin on Monday. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Where are Boeing Aircraft made? I believe it's Renton, Washington where they were tuned into the college football game here a while back. The seven thirty seven comes out of Reton, Washington. An expert on that is Sheila Kiglu, senior equity research analyst at Jeffreys and joins us this morning. Have you been to Reton, Washington? I have. There's three production lines. The third one just opened up, so if you think about it, each one of those turns out fifteen to seventeen max's per month. The fourth one will open next year and ever at about an hour and a half away from Renton. So I want you to speak and I don't want you to talk about all your leverage finance work at JP Morgan and your wonderful work at Jefferys, your award winning work and institutional investor forget about it. Our listeners and viewers want to know where's the problem and is it easy to fix? Is it rent in Washington or is it the fuselage riveters in Kansas. I think the problem is the pandemic deteriorated their aerospace workforce not so much. And I mean the problem is in Renton, not only at the Boeing factory, but the small Tier three, Tier four suppliers around there. They're seeing strain on their workforce. The problem has been really focused over the last year in Spirit in Wichita, with three incidents either on the Max or the eight to seven involving quality issues. So there's been management changes there to address those quality issues, and I think that's really the focus item. Given we've seen small improvements in the engine manufacturers and the Tier three, this sounds absolutely shocking when I start to hear about this, At least for ask this question earlier in the week. I'd love your response to it. Are we suggesting that things are safe but not as safe as they were before the pandemic? Now in this industry, I think the industry is having a tough time recruit you know, getting back up to post pandemic levels, and you know we're manufacturing. In September, we were only manufacturing in the teens a month on these max is when we were supposed to be at thirty eight a month. So we essentially, you know, in December deliveries were forty four. Half of that was out of inventory, half of it was actual production. So we basically doubled output in three months, right, we were trying to double output. So there's a stream, given air traffic is back to one hundred percent of twenty nineteen levels, to get this aircraft production back, and it was very constrained over the last three years. You've now did demand at Boeing isn't the problem, it's deliveries. We had Ryan as Michael O'Leary sit in your seat actually at the end of last year, complaining about the delays to the seven thirty seven max getting delivered to Ryanair how Osawi to further delays and ultimately canceled orders because of what's tanking place. I'm sure he was more entertaining than me, and this seat, I will tell you that he's more entertaining than I Am, don't worry about it. You know, what we've seen is that we've seen a delivery slip. We delivered about one thousand aircraft in twenty two. That number was fifteen hundred post pandemic on the narrow body. So we've seen that happen already. But we're not going to see cancelations. We're seeing the order brook stretch out twenty eight twenty nine. Everybody wants to get in line, and even Ryanair, who's been the most outspoken against Boeing, has talked about wanting that aircraft sooner and pricing being better for them, Pricing being better for Boeing on some of the Ryan Air aircraft because they want the aircraft sooner. What's the opportunity here for Airbus? I mean, I mean just as simple and tou luise I got to play this low. It could be them. I get the whole dance. But is this a huge strategic opportunity in the United States of America for unit sales for Airbus? Not so much. I think th

Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed's 'pivot party' over rate cuts has led to a hangover in the equity market to start the year. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, walks through a hectic week for Boeing and the airlines sector. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group founder, outlines his top ten risks in geopolitics for 2024. Nadia Martin Wiggen, Svelland Capital Director, expects a seasonal slowdown in global oil production amid low crude prices.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak delivers today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Subscribe to get the podcast by 6am Eastern every day. On Apple: http://bit.ly/3DWYoAN On Spotify: http://bit.ly/3jGRYiB On YouTube: bit.ly/3NMqUKlSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Helane Becker, TD Cowen Sr. Research Analyst, remains confident in the airline industry despite the recent Boeing in-flight safety incident. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says sentiments around the equity market got carried away at the end of 2023. Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Bloomberg Opinion Writer, says December's jobs data points to a healthy labor market. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director of Policy Research, discusses Congress' agreement on a spending-cap deal as well as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's unannounced stay in the hospital. Barton Crockett, Rosenblatt Securities Managing Director, details the reasons behind his firm's neutral outlook on Apple this year. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Helene Becker joins now senior research analyst at TD Cowen, and we're thrilled that she could be with us today. Helene, January twenty second. I guess we get an earnings report from United, the others will lined up. What is their urgency to act, not so much off the Boeing accident, but their urgency to act because of the topsy turvy markets they're in now. I think that we have a situation where we're expecting, or we saw fourth quarter traffic was pretty good. The further we get away from twenty twenty, the more we'll see managed corporate travel come back. I think the trip where you have maybe a one day trip isn't coming back anytime soon. I feel like it's a lot like after nine to eleven tom when the really short haul trips went away, and we expect that to continue really now. But the longer haul trips. People need to get out, they need to see their clients. We've been talking about this for about a year now and we're seeing that. We're seeing that increase in managed travel, and we think that we'll continue into the rest of this year. With the Boeing accident, with the rivets, the fasteners, whatever, we're going to see in the coming weeks of that analysis, even months, I should say, of that analysis, what does it mean for the dynamic of refleeting A word I discovered last week. I think Helene Becker, you know, refleeting is going out and buying the bright, shiny new thing accelerated. Yeah, well yes, and no American did their refleeting in the last decade, so they're on the downside of that. United is doing it now and into twenty thirty two. Delta is in the middle of it. But Delta has a different and Southwest actually have different viewpoints on the way they refleet. They kind of spend about ten percent revenue on capex, somewhere between eight and ten percent every year, so they're continually refleeting, so we view that fairly favorably. I don't think anything changes. There's a lot of pressure on the industry to lower their carbon footprint. I know aviation only makes up two percent of total transportation carbon, but others are doing the whole reduction carbon faster, so aviation over time will become a bigger percentage of it. So there's a lot of pressure to fly young are more fully efficient aircraft oleane. I can't get past this comment from George ferguson words you never want to hear, when he basically came out and said it's not as safe as it was before the pandemic, talking about the safety of flying at a time when we did just have this incident with Alaska Airlines, also the incident that we saw in Japan, Questions around the competency and staffing levels at some of the agencies. Are you concerned? Do you feel like that is an accurate statement that it is not as safe to fly today as pre pandemic. No, no, no, I disagree with that completely. The fact that there were no casualties on the japan Air A three thirty is hugely significant. They were able to evacuate that entire aircraft without any incident, with half the doors being half the emergency doors being unusable because of fire. So I think that's one thing to consider. I think from an aviation perspective and a safety perspect that every time there's an incident, there's an investigation. There is no cover up. You never see that as you would in some as you may in some other industries. There have it. I mean, not to cha the industry, but there really haven't been any major accidents. The fact that Alaska air pilots were able to declare any emergency turnaround land safely with no injuries is hugely significant. And I think aviation is still the sepest form of transportation. No other industry does the deep dive into accidents that aviation does, and then aviation trains for every accident

Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor of Economics & former Fed Governor, along with Bill Dudley, former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, and Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Economist, break down December's stronger-than-expected US jobs report. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the latest on oil with news that Maersk will avoid sending ships through the Red Sea for the 'foreseeable future' amid increasing violence from Houthi rebels.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, breaks down the year's first US weekly jobless claims report which fell below all estimates. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says we've entered the next phase for bonds as she shifts from long positioning to short. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, previews a busy month ahead in Washington ahead of Congress' return. Steve Trent, Americas Airline Analyst, advises a selective approach with airline investments. Sarah Hewin, Standard Chartered Head of Europe & Americas Research, predicts the ECB will cut interest rates before the Fed.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed's easing of financial conditions could pose risks to the US economy. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, suggests that a potential repricing of rates would be a pain trade. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, says Apple's growth potential makes the stock a 'golden buying opportunity.' Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Large Cap Bank Analyst, advises incorporating bank stocks into investor portfolios and believes we'll see further consolidation in the industry. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, discusses the latest in the Middle East after a senior Hamas official was killed in Beirut. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Right now, our conversation of the day. Synthesizing all this together. Torson Stock is chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Torson I'm going to pull in here a whole bunch of threads. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is showing massive accommodation, and yet I look at the old liboard, the news, Sofa, sofr and I'm seeing huge restriction within the short term paper market tensions on Wall Street and the ill liquidity on Wall Street. How urgent is it for the FED to make some direction on a March cut or dare I even say a January first cut? Well, it has a number of different dimensions. First, there is a dimension on the real economy. It's clear that the FED pivot has eased financial conditions dramatically, and this begins to run the risk that we might see a repeat of what happened at the citycon Valley Bank. Remember Chris Waller just said a few weeks ago the easing of financial conditions in Q two that boost the GDP growth to five percent in Q three. Could we see the same now where the easing of financial conditions after the fat pivot might actually be boosting the housing market, the label market, services inflation, goods inflation. We are not out of the woods when it comes to battling inflation. So on the real economy, absolutely, the easing of financial conditions is very supportive. There are some issues when it comes to the plumbing when the tightness as you're highlighting in very short term markets, and the FED for sure has to play this difficult talk of wall between do we want to ease financial condition on the rial side or how much can we ease financial conditions in the very front end of the curve. But this is the challenge for the FED. At the moment that you're highlighting, Torsten, you didn't listen. They didn't respond to the idea of financial conditions. They didn't seem to think it mattered at all at the last press conference. Why should it matter now? I mean we're going to actually hear them come back and say, actually, just kidding about that financial conditions question. Well, they were debating in October and September, well maybe financial conditions have done a lot of the work for us, and now they're saying, well, maybe financial conditions it doesn't really matter because it can fluctuate so much. So I still think that it's a little bit inconsistent what they're saying when that data dependency, it only talks about the real data, whereas the financial conditions impulse. If you take the easy and financial conditions that we've had since the fit pivot and stuff it into furpose the fed's model of the US economy, you will get a boom of up to one and a half percent growth over the next slevel quarters in GDP. It's going to be very supportive as a tailwind to the economic outlook. Although we did have Ganadi on earlier of TD securities, and he said even with this idea that inflation could remain stickier, that we could get this ongoing growth, the FED could still cut rates and still be restrictive. Given the positive real rate. Do you ascribe to that kind of thing or do you think that just means many fewer rate cuts going forward for the Fed. I think that's absolutely right that we have. Of course, for the better part of the last year, we have talked about higher for longer. Now the conversation is more restrictive for longer, because they can still be restrictive if inflation is coming down, because real interest rates is what matters. So if real interest rates are still positive as inflation comes down, the fact and according you also gradually begin to lower rates. But note also that if you look at the outlook for sofa futures, as also Tom was mentioning, you still have that the bottom will still be around

John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Chief Investment Strategist, says the consumer and the jobs market will play an important role in 2024. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & Former White House Fellow, overviews the latest in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific as global geopolitical tensions continue to rise. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says six rate cuts could indicate a weaker economic scenario. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, advises holding a long position on oil. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details the catalysts that could drag down stocks in his '10 surprises of 2024.' Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. John Stolfus joints chief investment Strategist at op co Op and I'm our asset management and we speak to him about the bullmarket he nailed last year and continues to nail this year. John, I'm going to take it back to the analog of the middle seventies, a horrific recession, the leap in nineteen seventy five, and then a follow on in nineteen seventy seven. It's twenty twenty four, a follow on bullmarket. I think in many ways it is, Tom. I think the question here really is, or rather the difference is, it's a substantially different background in terms of a digitalized global society for business as a consumer and what was back then, which was essentially an analog world. And I think things get digested much quicker. I think that the data is a better quality. And because we've been in crisis in an out of crisis since two thousand and eight, all the players as well as you know, the traders as well as the investors are more experienced with dealing with volatility. John, I think what's so important here is only Stolphus is talking about last year was a prelude. I just think that's so important. Fifty two hundred price target year rent this year, John, let's build on that. You and I have talked about this a few times in the last few months, and I've appreciate it. Can we just address it right now? How dependent that call is on interest rate cuts from the feder Reserve? Not much really. You know, we're not of the camp it's looking for six cuts this year in twenty twenty four. We're looking for perhaps one or two. And we're not looking for the first half for cuts. We think it'll happen in the second half of the year, and lightly later rather than earlier. In the second half. To us, the Fed has been remarkably sensitive in practicing its mandate. You know, where as able to comy and full employment is described by unemployment between three and four percent, and we think it wants to keep it that way, and so that's what we're looking at A little bit different. We like the Fed. Ironically, very few people do we think the Fed has done. It shows the Ben Bernank legacy carried on through Jerome Powell in the sense of communication and clarity. So it might not necessarily the rally my not be dependent on j. Powell. But how much is it dependent on the Central Bank of Tim Cook? I would have to say, perhaps I'll keep it away from a company specific here, but I would say certainly a business, the consumer and the jobs market will play an important role this year. Keyword to watch for is resilience when we look at economic data, what we're looking at is for things to show resilience, and naturally is a challenging environment when you're making transitions and you have the levels of trouble around the world. The geopolitical risks seems to keep ramping up by the day. But consider where business plays out in this where the opportunities are both this cyclical point where we are on the calendar, as well as the secular trends that are driving potential growth for all eleven sectors. Okay, So in other words, his text still lead me. I guess if that's the question at a time, or that accounted for fifteen percent of the twenty four percent game of the SMP last year at least, I think tech certainly remains a major participant in this, But I think what we need to watch well, of course communications services, which is about fifty percent tech related, you also have when you look at the other sectors, just think about industrials and all the technology in that. And it's a good customer of technology, whether it's it's sensors of robotics or what have you, and the cloud, big data and all that aon. So when we look at this, it's you know, whether it's it's a utility company, whether it's a materials company, whether it's a pharmaceutical or a bio

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Sam Stovall, CFRA Chief Investment Strategist, advises going for breadth in equity investments next year. Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Chief Correspondent, recaps another robust year for Apple and discusses the ongoing legal saga with the Apple Watch. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, says markets may be undervaluing geopolitical and US domestic risks. Angela Stent, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, breaks down the latest in the Russia-Ukraine war amid Russia's largest missile barrage since the invasion began. Josh Weinstein, Carnival CEO, walks through a year that saw record demand for the international cruise line.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cathie Wood, Ark Investment Management CEO, CIO & Founder, recaps a prosperous year for Ark Invest ETFs and discusses her outlook on the crypto and technology sectors for 2024. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, breaks down the final jobless claims data of 2023 and predicts a moderation in consumer spending next year. Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist, says bouts of volatility next year could provide opportunities for investors to get more involved. Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, says the US dollar has peaked and advises to pick any dollar shorts with caution. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the latest in the global oil markets amid increasing instability in Red Sea trading.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, says the key for investors in 2024 is to be well-diversified. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Large Cap Bank Analyst, advises a risk-on investment strategy going into the new year. Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Middle East & Africa Studies, says the US will opt to remain on the defensive amid recent escalations in the Red Sea. Nadia Martin Wiggen, Svelland Capital Director, overviews the impacts of ongoing geopolitical conflicts on the global oil market. Sel Hardy, CFRA Research Analyst, predicts a gradual recovery in the healthcare sector next year. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, recaps a busy holiday shopping season and says there's been a moderation in consumer spending across all income levels. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, predicts Apple will hit a whopping $4 trillion market capitalization next year. Matt Miskin, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, predicts the Fed will have less influence over markets in 2024. Tom Tzitzouris, Strategas Head of Fixed Income Research, says rate cuts are easier to justify for central banks outside the US than for the Fed. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, overviews escalating tensions in the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas war threatens to spill over. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Gapen, Bank of America Securities Head of US Economics, says November's Core PCE inflation data supports a March rate cut from the Fed. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, calls for a bullish 5,400 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2024. Kim Wallace, 22v Research Head of Washington Policy Research, gives his end-of-year political recap and outlines his expectations for 2024. Deborah Cunningham, Federated Hermes Global Liquidity Markets CIO, says cash is continuing to enter the markets via deposit products and money market funds. Brian Kelly, The Points Guy founder, overviews the holiday travel season and says most of the current travel growth is international.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities Chief US Economist, reacts to a resilient US jobless claims report and cautions that the recession the market is pricing-in doesn't happen. Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says bullishness likely has a wider window to perform going into 2024. Susan Thornton, Paul Tsai China Center at Yale University Senior Fellow, expects a tumultuous year ahead for US-China relations. Robert Fishman, Moffettnathanson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses the potential merger of Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Global.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Hirson, 22V Research Head of China Research, discusses a new NBC News report that claims Xi Jinping warned President Biden that Beijing intends to reunify Taiwan. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says we've already entered a global easing cycle. Jim Caron, CIO, Portfolio Solutions Group, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, advises a balanced portfolio approach going into what he expects to be a 'very rocky year'. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, says Apple margins will continue to expand despite pressure from EU regulators. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, says 'huge' problems lie ahead for the US in addressing the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Moynihan, Bank of America Chairman & CEO, sits down with Bloomberg's David Westin for a conversation on the bank's eventful year in 2023 and his economic outlook going forward. Rich Clarida, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman & Columbia University Professor, says he doesn't think Fed Chair Powell made a mistake in suggesting rate cuts next year. Chris Hyzy, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank Chief Investment Officer, says investors are eyeing a broadening out in the equity market over the next several years. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, expects the bond market rally to lose momentum going into the year-end. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the impacts of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea on the global oil market.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says the market could be getting ahead of itself after Fed Chair Powell's optimistic outlook. Priya Misra, JP Morgan Asset Management Portfolio Manager, says markets are not pricing in the chance of Fed cuts below the 3% level. Jay Pelosky, TPW Advisory Principal & Founder, says that we're moving toward a rate cutting cycle in 2024. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & former White House Fellow, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Co-Founder & Managing Director, discusses the impacts of ongoing attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Julian Emanuel, Evercore Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, expects the Fed to stay as quiet as possible over the next few months after giving markets the ‘all-clear’. Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group United States Managing Director, discusses the implications of increasing global resistance for supplying aid to Ukraine. Greg Daco, EY Chief Economist, says the economy has “all the right ingredients for a disinflationary environment” in 2024. Meghan Swiber, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Director of US Rates Strategy, says uncertainty around inflation is leading to a reluctance for markets to price-in the Fed’s 2% goal. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of Economics, says the Fed is following a "rules-based framework" around inflation and expects the economy to continue top grow. Elyse Ausenbaugh, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Global Investment Strategist, reacts to the ECB decision. Sree Kochugovindan, Abrdn Senior Research Economist, says she sees the possibility of a start of a technical recession in the UK and expects recession-like conditions to persist. Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research Chief Economist, says the runway is wider for a soft landing in the US. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is a joy. Yesterday was humbling ability for everyone, no question about that, and today well accept But today a recalibration year of where we go in our optimism on the American experiment. A few have been right, nobody like Neil duddat how to Economics at Renaissance Macro over the last eighteen months an absolute tewort of force that America economic might will prevail. This morning, David Rosenberg writes of a tepidominal GDP. At the same time, the tech analyst Dan ives Hit Webbush and Joel Fish buying it truest go out two in three years. I'm technical excellence of the Magnificent seven. Can our technology lead continue the dota optimism on American economy? That's a tough question, Tom, I mean, I hope so. I mean, productivity is notoriously difficult to forecast. But if productivity is picking up, which it has been over the last couple of quarters, then it raises the you know, the capacity for the economy grow without stoking inflation, and that takes a lot of pressure off the Fed. The last few months, you've been absolutely locked in. You seem to have some kind of visibility on what's happening here that some of the people are lacking. What's helping you. What's the framework that you're using to see things a little bit more clearly over the last few months. Well, I mean you had mentioned earlier that you know, Powell uh sounded some sounded different a couple of weeks ago. I mean, but you know, to me, the die has been cast for this for for a little bit of time now, I mean, and that's because inflation is slowing more rapidly than they expect. I mean, I think the Fed is following essentially a rules based framework where they're taking changes in inflation and the unemployment rate and translating that into expectations around the federal funds rate. And that's basically what's happening. That's what they did yesterday. And so you know, core inflation in November is likely to come in barely one tenth of one percent month over month, and that means that the momentum going into twenty twenty four is quite weak. And so if they're revising down inflation in December, which they did, and then a few months later they're going to be revising down inflation again in March, what do you expect expect them to do? What I would push back on, John, is this notion that this is because I mean, you know, you see all this already. Oh the ten years broken below four percent, that means a recession is happening. No, that's not what this is about. This is about inflation coming in better and the adjusting as a result, and that's ultimately a good thing. And you know, I think it's going to, you know, give the economy it a chance to continue growing. And I think that's that's what's likely. Well gets you around look on growth in just a moment. Policymakers like to use the word if just to hedge themselves if this continues, we might do this. You don't think that if is that large? You think this is already kind of baked in these right cuts are coming. Well, I don't know that it'll be six because to me, six feels like, you know, if there's a recession, six wouldn't be enough, but if the economy is growing, six feels like too many. Frankly, but I do. I don't think it's much of an if about round inflation. I mean, Powell talked earlier this year about a disinflationary process, and I think that was a little bit premature to talk about it. But now it really does feel like a meaningful disinflationary process is underway, and we have continued moderation in housing rental inflation coming. You know, the Terminal has an article today about Manhattan rants going down year over year. We also know that used car prices will continue to deflate over the next several months, and that was actually it popped in November. So and between that and you know, core goods excluding cars, I mean there's continued downside there as well, so I do. And the labor markets