Bloomberg Surveillance

Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says the markets need conviction that the Fed is done hiking rates. Annmarie Hordern, Bloomberg Editorial Chief Washington Correspondent, breaks down new election polling from Bloomberg/Morning Consult. Christian Horner, Oracle Red Bull Racing Team Principal & CEO, talks Oracle Red Bull Racing's dominance and previews the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Troy Gayeski, FS Investments Chief Market Strategist, remains in the higher-for-longer camp despite the resilience of the US economy. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details his market view and why he says, ‘it’s not whether I should be short, it’s how short I should be.’Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, expects consolidation in the streaming industry in the coming years. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the third Republican primary debate. Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says it's too early to know if the uplift in unemployment will barrel higher into next year. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence US Media Analyst, breaks down Disney's better-than-expected 4Q earnings. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the global oil market as crude prices remain low.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on app, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Jitting a manuel jointed to surround a table Chief Equity just over at evercor SI jitting Good mornings here, Good morning. Have you been participating in this wonderful, beautiful thing that is an eight day winning streak. Yeah, we have, you know, several weeks ago we just felt that when you backed off of that five percent yield, And I know we've been talking about it, but it is the fact that in this world now for the last year and a half, where stocks and bonds have been positive correlated, if bond yields go down, stocks go up, and backing off of five percent was huge for the psychology. And now we've got this unexpected oil price plunge, which is even bigger for Cheryl, I'm with you. Those two points yesterday stood out for me. Break a four to fifty on a ten year break of eighty on Brent crude. At what point do these correlations start to break the other way? What brings up hot that change? Well, we are watching that very closely. And guess what, the high frequency data is really important because that chart you were talking about a few moments ago, with the unemployment rate rising from three to four to three nine in the past, when that starts to happen, it tends to snowball. But where we're going to get the initial read on that is that eight thirty jobless claims number starts edging over two hundred and fifty thousand, we get a little bit cautious. Three hundred thousand is where we know the economy is going to turn down. I'm supposed to fold in now A question on Ed Hyman's Hicksy and Islm theory and his disinflation theory into your stock babble, forget about it. I love the single sentence you have which pushes against all that malarkey by saying price is paramount. Right now, when you talk to Ed Hyman, how does a respond to you telling them your economics doesn't matter, price is paramount. I'll tell you how five weeks ago Ed Heyman started putting out in almost daily the act that gasoline lean prices started falling as the conflict was erupting. You already had the turn in gasoline prices completely, you know, devoid of real sort of prosperity with Hymen's disinflationary tendency or outright deflation in China. Look, if you look at the last fifteen years, you've had episodic times of that from again. Obviously the financial crisis is one of those times. But ultimately what it comes back to again for equity investors, for bond investors. First of all, the whole idea of getting a real return on money in this world now is actually a positive for financial assets. It's a positive for capital allocation, and long term, it's a positive for growth. And that's you know, that's part of the equity investing mindset. Do you need a long term view right now or do you just trade the short term. It's really difficult to have a long term view because of what we're talking about the inflection in the economy potentially happening. But if you take the super long term view, is that even if you get the recession that Ed's thinking we're going to get, that it's going to be mild in twenty twenty four. What you're left with is a labor market that has rebalanced. What you're left with is again a real cost of money, better capital allocation, and frankly, we've talked about this before, you have new technological developments like generative AI that is going to improve the productivity of corporate America over the long term. One of the main frustrations of this year was that pretty much everything everyone said at the beginning of the year has proven to be wrong, including that this would be the year that tech stocks would fade more meaningfully and you start to see a broadening out in the rally. Energy stocks would start to be the true leaders. You just actually moved away from an overweight and energy and are talking more about generative AI. It seems like the theme just keeps on being that the leaders will keep leading.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, points to potential issues in the global supply chain amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Managing Director of Public Policy, says the margin of error for House Republicans to avoid a government shutdown has narrowed. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, predicts that Apple could look to buy ESPN. Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler Senior Research Analyst, says the commercial real estate market is in the midst of a rare phenomenon.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Our guest of the Morning to synthesize all this with our question. Peter Cheers joins us. Now ahead of macro strategy at Academy Securities, you look for price up, yield down. What will that do to the equity market. I think for now it's going to be good. I think we see four thirty on tens before before we see four to seventy five. I think the pain trade is actually to lower yields. A lot of people who are bullished at five kind of got short again. I think that works until we get down about four thirty five. Equities rally on the back of that. Then we realize we're getting here because things like oil copper receding because the economy is actually slowing fast so I think at that point that's when the recession fear start getting priced back into stock. Taking Academy Securities three year view, you've got that slowing global demand. Nick bennenbrook On from Wells Fargo stunning with a two point four percent global GDP call. Can you own equities out with a three year vision? I think you could if you had a three year vision. I think right now it's more like a two to three week vision. Everything's so volatile. We don't know where this economy is turning. We don't know what's going on there. And one thing that's starting to scare me is we're having a lot of discussions about the Middle East. We're starting to hear a little bit more concerns about supply chains. I don't think it's an issue today, but if as this drags on, if there's any degree of escalation, supply chains become an issue again. So I think that will be a big drag on the economy. The Middle East crude last month is just unreal. To see a move of almost eleven percent lower on WTI, even with the heightened tension in the Middle least, A lot of people appointing to maybe demand starting to crack in a certain places around the world, Europe one, maybe even the United States gone into next year. What's your view on that. Yeah, I think the last time I was here, I said buying oil was not going to be a good hedge for escalation there because oil had been under so much pressure before, and I think that's what we're seeing again. There's just that lack of demand and the Saudis definitely have the ability to turn on the tap if they want. We're clearly trying to figure out how to work with Venezuela, and so far it looks like Aram's going to continue to pump oil despite the sanctions, despite the height intensions there. So there's not much in favor of oil right now, and I think that's a very crowded long position, so I could see that breaking lower coming into next year. You mentioned a two to three week view. I'm with you. You You know what's about to happen. Then in the next two to three weeks, we're going to get a load of people publishing their outlooks for twenty twenty four. Can you help us understand how you get any visibility whatsoever into next year? What's the strategic view going into you know, I think there's still some big themes. I think AI, how people are using AI, the efficiency that that could cause for companies. I think that's going to be a big theme still. So you can look over that. Where are we going to be on the defense spending? Where are we going to be in terms of geopolitical spending. I think the reshoring is still real. I think a reasonably healthy economy with their decent jobs is still the overriding thing. So I think markets are a little bit more volatile, volatile right now than the underlying economy is. So if you put this together to what you said earlier, that you see benchmark ten year yields getting down to four point three five percent before going back up to four point seventy five percent, or just basically they're heading lower. Does that mean that we're going to have slower growth but still the soft landing and that it basically people are going to get a little concerned about stocks, but that it sets up a rally. And I'm just trying to understand. No, I think a very c

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says policymakers have yet to win the fight against inflation, and that they will consider more tightening if needed. Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research US Economic Research Head, says a rebalanced labor market could led to a rate cut. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, expects more potential buying for treasuries in the short-term. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor-In-Chief, previews the off-year elections happening across several US states. Nadia Martin Wiggen, Svelland Capital Director, discusses the global oil market as prices fall to over two-month lows. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa A. Bromoids, along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrow, join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This morning, Mike McKay Drumrow, fantastic guests the random type with us to talk about Fed policy. Yes, and thank you very much, John, because we are pleased to welcome Neil Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, to the table today. Thank you for coming in making the trip all the way to New York only for us. I'm sure nothing else There would be nothing else this morning, and except for Bloomberg Surveillance. You're kind of known as the guy who is the most hawkish. I don't want to characterize you exactly now, given how things have changed over the last couple of months, but you have left open the possibility of doing more. How much more would you think the economy might need? Are we talking about just that one leftover move from the dot plot in September, or if you have to start raising again, do you have to go farther. Probably. Well, first of all, it's great to see you, Thanks for having me. People are looking for certainty, and I wish I could give that certainty provided there's been so much, so much it's unusual about the reopening of the economy and the dynamics that led to the high inflation, and how long it has taken, and the dynamics as the disinflation process has taken hold. I wish I knew. We have to let the inflation data guide US, the labor market data guide US, just to point out the obvious. Our forecasts have not been great over the past couple of years, and so we just need to We're all committed. Everybody on the FORMC has committed that two percent is our inflation target. We have to get inflation back down to two percent over a reasonable period of time. Ultimately, the economy will tell us how much is needed to get there, And I just don't know. Well, at what point do you think you would believe you have tightened enough or not tightened enough? What is it that you're looking for. Well, I'll give you some good news is that core PC on a three month basis is running about two point five percent, and it's lower than the six month data. It's lower than the one year data. So that suggests that the disinflation is real. If we continue to see inflation numbers of that range two point five percent or lower on a go forward basis, that would tell me, Okay, we are now on a path back to two percent inflation. But three months data is still only three months data, and if we see that start to tick back up again, that would tell me our job is not yet done. Tick back up means what? In other words, we get another couple of CPI reports in a PCE report before your next meeting, a couple of tents higher. The chairman and others say it's going to be lumpy or does it have to be a significant move? In other words, what are you thinking about for December? Well, I think we could look at, as the chairman always says, we look at all of the data. So what surprises Over the past few months, We've been surprised by how strong American consumers have been. Consumer spending is held up remarkably well, we've been surprised by GDP growth. When activity continues to run this hot, that makes me question is policy as tight as we assume that it currently is. So if you saw inflation tick back up and you saw continued very strong economic activity on the real side of the economy, that would tell me, okay, we might need to do more. So it's hard for me to say this one data point needs to be here. I would be looking at the suite of data. Did we outsource doing more to financial markets? In the arts week? Have we outsourced doing more to financial markets? You know, this is a very complicated question on what has been driving the long end of the Yeld curve. Some people point to term premium, and I always joke the term premium is the economist version of dark matter. It's the residual of all the stuff we can't explain. It's not that our models are wro

Mandy Xu, CBOE Global Markets VP & Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, advises monitoring multiple asset classes going into the year-end. Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, says the airline remains committed to Boeing despite delays in aircraft deliveries. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says there's an increased focus on selectively from credit investors. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director, discusses the Israel-Hamas war and Antony Blinken's visits to several leaders in the Middle East. Ashley Allen, Franklin Templeton Corporate Credit Research Analyst, discusses resilient consumer spending. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa Abramoids along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I'm DeLine of joined us now at a macro credit research at black Line I and I don't worry. We're not going to be talking about that. I do want to talk about supply if we can start there. We've got forty eight billion dollars a three year notes this week, We've got forty billion dollars a ten year notes. We've got some thirty year bonds twenty four billion dollars worth. These are big, big numbers. That's treasury supply. What's happening with credit supply going into year rent, Good morning, Thank you both for having me so. As you know, credit supply had a bit of a flurry of activity in September. It calmed down in October. I do think with this tentative stability in the treasury market that corporates, CFOs and treasures may look to move ahead before the year end seasonal slow down. It will be an important test for the market how this treasury supply is digested. But as we know, the Treasury Secretary guided us towards the front end of the curve and not so much in duration in the refunding announcement last week. But I actually think, if nothing else, the past several months have shown corporates that this can be very episodic in terms of these windows opening, and so given that we know the maturity walls are coming up, I think for corporates it's better to issue early rather than late. We're expecting a big week in the IG market this week. I think expectations are a little lower in high yield, but I would not be surprised if we surprise to the upside in terms of those expectations, because I think it's just prudent for CFOs, which speaks to kind of the opportunism that one Sidi get desk told me about last week. He messaged me as soon as we saw this rally and he said, everyone's trying to come to market. I've gotten fifteen phone calls. Everyone's basically lined up. Is this going to be bad? With credit spreads widening in the sort of counterintuitive way because we've got more supply, I think the appetite is there, and I think we've had such light supply, especially in high yield year to date, and twenty two was a record a low level that I think the appetite for the market is there. I think where the real risk is is it that lowest quality cohort of the triple C market, that kind of lowest quality rung of high yield which are triple C issuers. There. I think we've seen some enhanced pressure where it's weak results coupled with refinancing needs have really pressured those capital structures. And even on this swift rally in high yield spreads that we've seen over the past few trading sessions, triple c's have rallied, but they've lagged on the way in. And I think it's the market telling you that there's an appetite for certain quality cohort in the credit market. Ig I think is there in most market conditions. Hig yield is a bit more tentative, but for that lowest quality rung, I think it's very case case specific and vary idiosyncratic. Are people kind of just pricing in perfection here? Well? With high old spreads below four hundred, it's hard to argue you that there's much risk premium added into the market at the moment. I think what we're seeing is a lot more focus on selectivity from our credit investors, so thinking about asset allocation between high yield and leverage loans, sector selection, issuer selection. I think where we're high old spreads are at the moment, the path of least resistance is probably a little bit wider in terms of choppiness, with some of the headline risk ahead of us. But again, as we've talked about before, where yields are, it's really difficult to see kind of highield spreads breaking out in this range of much wider from here, because when you every time, we tried to reach four forty last week and we kind of snapped back in, and so there is a bit of a tug of war between fundamentals and technicals, and ev

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Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics, and Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, discuss the softer-than-expected October US jobs report. Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner and Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Technology Senior Analyst, recap Apple's sluggish 3Q earnings report. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses the rift in Washington over government spending and aid to Israel.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance FULL TRANSCRIPT: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. What you need on Jobs Day more Newtonian calculus. We'll do that with Randall Krosner of the Bus School, Chicago, of course, the former Fed governor, one of our great and giant financial economists in America. What's the second derivative of the jobs market look like? Randy? When it moves? Does it move? Ah? And that's the key question exactly what you were talking about. What does this pretend for the trajectory going forward? Certainly we're seeing a slowing pace over the last few months downward revisions. And then the question is will this be nice and smooth or will this pretend something that is going to be As at LISTA mentioned before, nonlinear, very difficult to predict any nonlinear moves and things. But I do think it's consistent with a somewhat softening labor market. I think the FED will certainly be heartened by the wage growth coming down a bit over time. I think this takes the wind of the sales of those who wanted to go further. I think it makes it much more likely that we will just hold where we are for a while. But so far, there's nothing in this to suggest that the FED is going to be eager to cut or be even talking about cutting anytime soon. Do you think, Randy is some people are pointing to manufacturing as a point of weakness, that that is a leading indicator in the way it has been in previous times, just because of how many people were hired during the peak of the pandemic. It is certainly one area that there was a lot of bounce back, because of course people want to things, but now people want services, and so the services part is still extremely important. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on any one particular sector. I think you have to look over overall, and as Mike had said, you know, we're seeing a little bit of slow down broadly, but not enormous amount of slow down. But I do think that is consistent with in somestance where the FED wants to go. They want to see the uneployment rate go up a little bit, not too much. They want to see wage growth come down a little bit, but not too much. And I think it's just going to be tougher to be hiring people going forward. Until just a few months ago, real wages were not growing, they were actually negative. Real wage growth was negative. Now real wage growth is positive, so it gives less of an incentive for firms to hire. Real interest rates are now positive. They had been negative for a very long time. That combination is probably going to lead firms to be less eager to hire, less eager to invest, and I think that's going to be leading to what I think is potentially a hard ish but not hard landing. This is an important jobs report. This November report of the October data just absolutely extraordinary. Randy Krasner, thank you so much, Professor Krasner with the Boost School the University of Chicago. If you're not part of the global Wall Street gang, you've got to understand it's hard to look at the Bloomberg screen and frame it out from where we were two weeks ago, which gets us to canes and when the facts change, I change. Jeffrey Rosenberg studied as Maynard Keynes at Carnegie Mellon. He's a black Rock portfolio manager systematic multi strategy fund for all of us. Jeff Rosenberg, are the facts changing? Great question, Tom. You know, the narrative is changing and the facts are driving that. And so Lisa asked the kind of the key question, You know, how do you rally in front of a slowing labor picture? And that's because it's where we are. Equity markets were weaker while the economy was strengthening, and that was really about the rise in the denominator, in the discount rate and the interest rates. So as you ease off the pressure in terms of the interest rates, there's a little window here where the narrative changes and there's relief because the discount raid is expected to be a bit lower, and you see it in the bond market. But that's about horizon and so the near term horizon narrative will shift, but the longer ter

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Sree Kochugovindan, abrdn Senior Research Economist, breaks down the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the Israel-Hamas war and its political impact in Washington. Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief US Economist, says a slowdown in the US labor market would lead to a slowing in inflation. Geetha Rananathan, Bloomberg Intelligence US Media Analyst, discusses Disney's plan to buy Comcast's stake in Hulu. Pierre Ferragu, New Street Research Head of Global Technology Infrastructure, previews Apple's earnings release.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. What a joy to see her in London. Sree Kachigovin and joins us right now, senior research economists at Aberdeen three. I'm absolutely fascinated by how the US stands alone, how Jerome Powell yesterday stood alone with massive stimulus leading into massive real GDP. Does the United Kingdom, where Governor Bailey stands now, do they need stimulus to keep it going? I think stimulus would probably not be a good idea at this point. Really, what we want to tackle is inflation. Now. The Bank of England have a very challenging backdrop. Growth outlook is weakening, but we still have very elevated inflation pressures. Now inflation is past the peak, it has started to decelerate. However, energy costs are still quite elevated. The headline inflation is still very high. And also we have even though those multi price based effects will start to unwind over time, we still have very sticky core services and wage pressures in place. So stimulus right now would not be a good idea for the UK. Now it's not restrictive fiscal background at the moment, but further stimulus would actually not be helpful with the Here's a fun fact from the Bloomberg News story that Lucy White wrote for US. Ben Bernanke actually attended the Bank of England's meeting as an observer. It's part of his review into the UK central banks forecasting communications. And of course this comes as Bailey has faced some criticism that they didn't move quickly enough to respond to inflation. Sree, can you compare and contrast the efficacy of communication at the BAIE versus the FED. I think, as we mentioned earlier, there was a conversation about group think. There is a split within the within the Bank of England, and I think the communication has been quite clear from the various members. We've had the arguments for staying on hold, the arguments for perhaps another an additional hike, and all of those are quite consistent actually with the data that we're seeing. But it seems that on the whole we are witnessing switch towards a focus on growth and the weaker activity data and some greater faith in terms of inflation actually passed the peak and decelerating from here. So we're also seeing there. So we have a signal from the split in the vote, and we also have that signal well, very very clear in terms of rates are going to be on hold for a meaningful period of time, even if, as we expect, the economy enters a recession, rates are going to remain quite elevated. And that's quite a burden for small companies in particular who are much more sensitive to the rate cycle. They are facing a profit squeeze. There is a bit of an issue there in terms of future business investment and so there are a number of challenges there, particularly for the smaller, smaller firms. So that's something that the Bank of England are going to have to really be wary of. Yeah, credit availability for small firm is always an issue, whether it's stateside or across the pond street. When it comes to the stimulus versus austerity debate, that time was referencing how does the Bank of England's decision to keep rates on hold for a second straight meeting and warn about a possible recession, warn about the need to perhaps raise rates in the future of inflation reaccelerates. How does that restrain or limit the government's options when it comes to supporting the economy. I think the government is also very aware, and we have heard from Sunak p at the Prime Minister. We have heard that there is a focus on inflation even within the government. Yes, they do have an election coming up, but they're worried about stimulus too soon and too much stimulus too soon. So I think they're going to pair back on any measures that are going to fuel inflation. Further, I think that's also concerned from them, get every challenging decision for them, given that there is an election on the

Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist, and Mark Cabana, Bank of America Head of US Rates Strategy, break down the US Treasury's refunding announcement. Dom Konstam, Mizuho Securities Head of Macro Strategy, previews the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Global Head of Currency Strategy, expects Japanese yields to continue to rise after the BOJ's decision. Jennifer Flitton, Invesco Head of US Government Affairs, discusses the latest in Washington on US aid to Israel.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance FULL TRANSCRIPT: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Where this seth Carpenter at, the chief global economist at Morgan Stanley. Is this just about in our start? Are we all John Williams this morning and we're readjusting? I clared it with me last week at a Bloomberg event. At two point zero percent is not two point six percent? I mean, are we really talking, as Mike aludes tou there about a new inflation regime? I think you want to separate out a couple of things. One is the new inflation regime, and there if you're comparing it to where we were from the financial crisis through COVID to say, yes, right, the FED was consistently missing it's inflation target to the downside. I call it a quarter percentage point. We're above, clearly above target now and over the next several years they want to bring it down, but I'm not sure they want to go back to the old days of you know, being below two percent on a regular basis. So if they're going to be averaging a little higher during expansions, call it a tenth or two above. You know, you're talking about twenty five to fifty basis points high inflation, so that's got to be there. I don't think we're talking about the difference between two percent inflation and three percent of I want to tell you on radio on television where we're heading here, what half are we have. We have Dark Carpenter with this on the broader economics of this moment. Ira Jersey schedule to join us just exquisite here on fixed income dynamics, and then we do even better. Mark Cabana is going to darken the door. Who's just expert on your world about you know, the different tranches of the auctions. I want to dig into what the implications are of this announcement sas and to me, I'm looking at the idea that they're really going to force the front end to a lot of the heavy lifting here. Does that pose a greater risk than people realize. So my view is no, the way I would think about it. There was a speculation that back and forth a little bit earlier, did the Treasury just react to the market. And I think you want to remember that the folks there at Treasury, Josh Frost, the assistant secretary, the career staff in debt management, they have a structure now, they have a framework for how to think about what to issue, and they're looking at what is the market saying about where the market wants to pay up and where the market's demanding a discount, and at the margin, they'll lean a little bit more to where the market wants the paper and lean a little bit away from the place where the market's pulling back. And we've seen over the past several months a big sell off in the long end. It showed up, you know, in models speak and the term premium, and they're paying attention to that. It's not that one week to the next, or one month to the next, or even one quar to the next, is it sustained. What we are seeing is very much a strong move on the long end in that thirty year yield plunging back below five percent. As we were talking about do you think I think that this indicates that really what we're seeing in yields is entirely a supply driven story more than anything in terms of an economic read on strength and inflation in the US. So no, it's so hard depending on any single thing. When I talk to our clients here in New York, in London, around the world who are trading in treasuries, there are a whole set of different narratives, one of which has been supplied. People have been worrying about the deficit, which is exactly why Secretary Yellen came out and said it's not the deficit. People are worrying about stronger growth. Q three GDP data was very strong, There's no two ways about it, and so that contributed to it. Other people are worrying about is there going to be a pullback from risk by global investors. Other people are looking at the back of Japan. We just had that meeting right where they effectively de facto got rid of yield crop control. So it's not just one single thing, it's everything c

Mark McCormick, TD Bank Global Head of FX & EM Strategy, analyzes the Bank of Japan's decision to loosen its grip on government bond yields. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed's sensitivity has enabled the resilience of the US consumer. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, discusses the latest in the Israel-Hamas war. Stephen Stanley, Santander Chief US Economist, says the Fed has overstated the importance of the recent surge in US treasury yields. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, says the US economy hasn't yet felt the sting of the Fed's recent rate hikes.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance FULL TRANSCRIPT: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We are living it right now. A brief from Mark McCormick, Global Head of Foreign Exchange in EM Strategy TD Securities. Mark, and why don't you to explain to our audience why a super strong dollars from twenty twelve and a super week yen is disturbing? Well, I think of what it does is it just shows the massive divergence you have between central banks. I think one of the things that you can unpack is there are certain currencies that care about growth, there's certain currencies that care about commodities, there's certain currencies that care about different relative central bank functions. The thing that the end cares a lot about is the ten year point to look at euro. Euro cares about the two year point of the curve. More than say the ten year and if you take the combination of what we had, and this is one of the most important things going on effects is the relative terms of trade shift. Japan is also a massive importer of energy and other commodities. So you take the commodity story, you take the great differential story, and now you take the aggressive bear steepening of the US curves this summer, and you've got basically a trifective things that will weaken the end quite considerably unless the BOJ does something well to the trifecta. Let's go to Mondel of Columbia. I mentioned this with Vice Chairman Clara to the other day. He will join US folks for our special FED coverage. Look for that? Is that tomorrow? Yes, it's tomorrow. The FED meeting is too more might people have just briefed me and Mark I'm looking at that. I want to echo what I talked to Professor Clara about, which is something has to give here. When something gives, what is the instability our audiences should be worried about? Well, I think of the context of the end, what needs to give is the actual the currency itself. As you mentioned, there is a very interesting policy mix where fiscal policy is actually quite favorable in forms of in terms of growth, also inflation. You see the BOJ is expecting higher inflation to kind of be a bit more sticky, I think, than markets are looking for. And they've also basically said we don't have a cap anymore. It can go above one percent. So I think what they're trying to do is synchronize themselves a little bit, which which has been US yield rising, which would contain the weakness in the end, But this is not a policy mix that is coherent and it is no longer sustainable. So I think a big thing is what we're going to see is things are going to change. It will change abruptly, but I think the movement that we had overnight where they said there's no longer a one percent cap, is actually quite a significant change. But it will take time for this to work through the market. So again i'd say that the thing that needs to break is yields needs to be higher, yet needs to be stronger. It's just going to take more time because we also need to see a peak in the US yield story, which again is not even about the FED anymore. When we talk about the ten year yield. It's more about supply and demand for ten year bonds. This is a big mishmash. Do you have a sense of what the response mechanism from the Bank of Japan is, what the lines in the sand are, what they're sort of looking at. I mean, we were talking about some of the opacity that they put forward overnight. It's very tricky because I think obviously most central banks it's very common language. At this point, they care more about the currency movements. So the end has not been as volatile. So as you can see, we have not the report came out this morning like they did not intervene last month. So I think I don't think there's a red line per se. I think they're all kind of doing what everyone in the market's doing. They're very con

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says confidence across all sectors in the equity market remains fragile. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, says that fiscal support at the federal and state levels is reducing the odds of a recession. Elliot Ackerman, Former White House Fellow, US Marine Corps Veteran & Co-Author of 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, says the urban warfare environment in Gaza poses major challenges to both sides. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy founder, expects Congress to pass spending bills on Ukraine, Israel, and the Southern border before the end of the year. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Economist, North America, says the Fed may opt for future rate hikes. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa Abramoids along with Tom Keane and Jonathan Ferrow, joining us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Lori Kelvacina joining head of US Equity Strategy to RBC Capital Markets. Do you agree with that that when you look under the hood, you're seeing massive breakdowns that are reflective of a great deal of pain that people really gloss over. I think that's fair, Lisa. I mean, I think Jana hit the nail on the head when she talked about small caps making a new low. I always tell people about small caps, even if you can't buy them, they tell you a lot about what's going on in the broader market. And I think what's going on is that they're really taking the brunt of the pain as regards to the big increase in tenure yields that we've seen now. Of course, the tech stocks and the cap part of the market are getting knocked around by that as well. But small caps, it doesn't matter to how many charts I can show people suggesting that the balance sheets are not that bad. People simply don't want to hear it. And there's a view that small caps are simply not going to be able to weather the storm that's created by the surge and interest rates, whether it's ten year yields or fed funds. And again, I have so many charts, Lisa that I've been showing people for the last six months saying, hey, small caps have done a good job of shifting towards long term debt, the variable rates down, the weighted average maturities are really not that bad on average about four and a half years. People simply don't want to hear it, Lisa. There's just been a long adage that small caps don't weather higher interest rates very well, and I think that's one of the big reasons why they're getting punished right now. Laurie, can you talk about sector performance within the small caps sectors, because I do think that the sectors are telling an interesting tale in small caps that maybe we're not picking up in large cups. So if you think about you know, think about it. From evaluation perspective, I will say that most sectors in small cap look cheap relative to their low large cap counterparts. But where it gets really interesting is on some of the cyclical sectors. So it's not just small cap financials that are dragging down the rustle two thousand from evaluation perspective. Healthy sectors from a fundamental perspective, like industrials, also look pretty cheap relative to large cap. In the small cap space, consumer discretionary stocks really look kind of left for dead if you look at valuations there. They're deeply, deeply cheap, and they were actually really down around recession type flows last summer. So we're really seeing that pain very very widespread. And given we are in the midst of earning season, is there anything that you're getting out of earnings that maybe is not getting picked up by the markets, considering the markets are so captivatd like what's happening in these macro indicators, So I think people are really misunderstanding what's going on with inflation moderating and what that does to companies. One of the things that we've seen when we compare our numbers versus the street consensus and we actually, you know, we use the Bloomberg data to monitor the street consensus and it does a really good job of articulating how margin expansion is baked into a number of different sectors next year. Well, in my modeling, we actually don't have margin expansion. We kind of have margins going back to twenty twenty two type levels. And one of the reasons why is that we don't give margins a big benefit from sliding inflation. We simply haven't seen a justification to do that in our back test. And when you go through all the transcripts, what we're really noticing is that companies are picking up on this. So the pricing discussion has simply gotten much much swishier, and companies

Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, breaks down today's core PCE price index which showed that both inflation and consumer spending rose in September. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Policy Research Director, predicts that the chaos in the House will lead to a shutdown later this year. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management, says that we've entered within 50 basis points of a peak in rates. Poonam Goyal & Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analysts, discuss a big week in Big Tech earnings. Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Analyst, expects banks to set aside reserves to build confidence going into 2024. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance FULL TRANSCRIPT: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa A. Bromoids, along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We're waiting for the PC data. We're joined by Mike Nicky Aron the Deak. So we're waiting for the personal spending, the deflator. Mike, will it be disinflationary? Roll of the dice, that's the question. We're waiting for the numbers to come down on the Bloomberg Terminal. Well, I got about four seconds until that happens. But the ideas we may get a little more disinflation. Let's find out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and here come the numbers. And we'll start with the inflation numbers. They come in hotter than anticipated, up four tenths of a percent. I don't know month over a month basis. For the headline, the core comes in up a three tenths which is about what was expected, although there was some leaning towards maybe a little lower number year over year. Now we see the PCE headline number at three point four percent, that's down from three to five, and the core comes in at three seven, down from three to nine. Both of those expected. All the people who like to dive into all those numbers and figure out what actually changed will be with us in a few seconds. Personal income up three tenths. That's lower than the prior month of four tenths gain, but also lower than what was anticipated a four tenths gain. Spending up seven tenths, I mean not strong. On the back of that, on the back of that GDP and the connginut well, this number is in the GDP because this is a September number. It was the third month of the quarter, so he kind of sort of backed out the numbers and anticipated that this would be fairly strong. We were up four tenths the prior month. The question is now do we continue to see that spending happen, Because if incomes are falling behind and they have been the spending levels over the last couple of months, that would suggest that maybe there's a pullback ahead. Now I'm not the expert here. There's one more there is, indeed, La Rain chief economists out with us this morning. First take, I think that we continue to see inflation coming down, but it's still uncomfortably It's still unacceptably high from the point of view of the Fed, and I think the conversation as we go into next year continues to the options for the Fed continue to narrow because if inflation stays about where it is and it's going to take a long time for it to get closer to too, their room to maneuver should the economy slow at all, is going to be very narrow. And look by these numbers, it looks like the economy is just still incredibly strong. We know that from the GDP numbers that we already got, but I mean the spending has just by the households that has defied every expectation of it to slow, and it's accelerated so much in the third quarter. That's what's extraordinary. I think savings rate comes in a three point four percent. People have been watching that for some indication of whether or not they're going to run out of money in the American consumer. It's down from four percent and it's been a steady decline. But historically, before the pandemic, we used to say people spend what they make. They don't dip into savings the way people tend to think they do. And so if that's the case, then there's more of a case now for maybe a slow down. People don't have as much to dip into if they wanted to, but they're also not making as much as they were. Well, I had johnat Henry with me this morning from HSBC and she said, actually Americans are more likely to dip into their savings and spend, spend, spend right to the very end. But I want to bring you an idea from UBS, which is Paul Donovan, where he said, you know, when we go to write the history of twenty twenties, do not bet against the headonism of the US consumer. It's very rich. I love it. I mean, there's a there's a brilliant wine place in London called Hedonism Wines. Whole o

Jeremy Stretch, CIBC Head of G10 FX Strategy, breaks down the European Central Bank's decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, discusses the US economy's fast-paced growth in the last quarter. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, says the US won't face a government shutdown in November after Congress elected a House Speaker. Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Sr. Technology Analyst, says AI will be a key focus for Big Tech going forward. Michael Nathanson, MoffettNathanson Sr. Research Analyst, says 2024 will be a year of consolidation in the streaming market.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Jeremy Stretch of CIBC as he considers these headlines, not much movement in the market. I've got ero one oh five forty, Jeremy. A key question to me is simple, and that is the idea of what two percent means. These are different economies, different nations. Do you look at it as two point zero percent? Is the ECB Bundesbank hope two point two percent while the FEDS two percent is two point eight percent? Well, of course, the Eurozone is a difficult beast to manage, and I think President Leguard is very mindful of that because, as we've touched upon, there is a very different degree of performance and activity in a number of the different economies across the zone. Now, the Eurozone and ECB is aiming to get back inflation to that two percent target threshold over the medium term. I think it was notable that obviously inflation in September did fall a little fast and the ECB had been expecting. And as I say, I think the next meeting in December will prove to be particularly instructive as we get forecasts out to twenty twenty six for the first time, but also looking at those longer run inflation expectations and if those are back towards the two percent threshold in aggregate across the whole of the zone, and that of course is the difficulty. We will still get divergence in the individual nations, but as an aggregate measure, the ECB is going to be aiming to get back to that two percent target threshold over the course of the next two years. Jeremy, I'm going to go to a wonderful moment I had with the August and here from Leon Jean Claude Trichet, and he talked to me about transmission, the diffusement of an economy across borders. Europe doesn't have the transmission mechanisms of America, do they. Well, there is obviously one of the inadequacies of the Eurozone project is the you know, the difficulties on the fiscal side on a relative basis that the US obviously has because the US has the you know, the federal system, and we do get that disperse into federal funds across the fiscal dynamics. So we are in a situation where the plumbing, if you like, in terms of the Eurozone economy, in terms of monetary and fiscal policy is very diverse because of course fiscal dynamics, and that's still much more at the behest of national governments. But I think the other interesting dynamic to consider as we move into twenty twenty four is that the Eurozone is thinking about bringing back those fiscal thresholds that were put on or suspending during the COVID period, and that will be an interesting dynasm to add to the rinkle about fragmentation risk, and that of course is one of the big concerns that the ECB has to be mindfulwed even if prisident, Legard will try and downplay any concerns at this particular Poet, Jeremy Stretch, thank you so much. October thirty, Apple to announce new MacBook pros I should say Lindsay Piaggs is pleased with that because as she ran her Excel spreadsheet on the American economy at burn Up or MacBook a couple days ago, Doctor piags it joins us now from Stifel as well. How hard is it to put together an Excel spreadsheet with the mysteries of this American economy. Well, it's typically difficult, but it's become increasingly difficult with all of these ancillary factors that are coming in that are virtually impossible to model. We do have a lot of international factors that are impacting the market's expectations. We do have now unprecedented fiscal variables that we're trying to account for. But I think right now the market is very much discounting that third quarter number, focusing onstead on the latest central bank decisions the BOC the ECB as a proxy for what to expect from the Fed next week, suggesting that developed central banks around the world, despite still elevated inflation, are starting to pull back in anticipation of a slower

Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst, breaks down a busy week of tech earnings starting with Microsoft and Alphabet. Marvin Loh, State Street Senior Global Macro Strategist, says the Fed will maintain its higher-for-longer policy for longer than many expect. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, believes President Biden has enough support in Congress to eventually pass an aid package for Israel and Ukraine. Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities Chief US Economist, says the Fed has shifted its priority from inflation to employment. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says we may not yet have seen the bottom of the long-end of the bond market.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton President & CEO, shares concerns about spiraling US debt and its impact on interest rates. Mandeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence discusses the latest in tech earnings. Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says the Fed's higher-for-longer policy is starting to bite. Paul Jacobson, General Motors Chief Financial Officer, discusses GM's 3Q earnings and the company's outlook amid the UAW strike. Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Executive Director, discusses the impacts of geopolitical conflicts on the global energy market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says there's a need for a repricing of risk assets to reflect the higher rate environment. Tom Tzitzouris, Strategas Head of Fixed Income Research, says that continued high interest rates will bite all corners of the economy. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Chief Economist, expects wage growth to level off as the Fed works to lower inflation. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research, expects more consolidation in oil as Chevron buys Hess in a $53B deal. Ret. Gen. Frank McKenzie, Global & National Security Institute Executive Director and Fmr. US CENTCOM Commander, says the main objective in the Middle East is to ensure Iran is deterred from further involvement in the war. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Bolton, former National Security Advisor and former US Ambassador to the UN, says the US has failed to coherently monitor the situation in the Middle East for close to two decades. Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, expects to see continued challenges to the bond market. Greg Valliere, Chief US Policy Strategist at AGF Investments, says the case for US aid to Ukraine and Israel is self-evident. Alex Brazier, BlackRock Investment Institute Deputy Head, says that we've seen the end of the 'great moderation.' Deborah Cunningham, CIO at Federated Hermes Global Liquidity Markets, believes the Fed's message of higher-for-longer remains truthful.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Speaking at the Economic Club of New York, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed could hold interest rates steady again at its next meeting. But, he warned a future hike isn't out of the question. Powell sat down for an exclusive conversation with Bloomberg Wall Street Week host David Westin, following his remarks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Claudia Sahm, Founder of Sahm Consulting, expects the Fed to get inflation back to 2% in the near future. Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense, wants to see a stronger consensus among Western leaders connecting the attacks in Israel to Iran. Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at Newedge Wealth, says consumer spending is starting to soften. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management expects to see an economic slowdown. Brian Wieser, Principal & Senior Media Analyst at Madison & Wall, breaks down the strong earnings report from Netflix.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jon Lieber, US Managing Director at Eurasia Group, says the US could potentially become involved in the Israel-Hamas war if strikes happen beyond Gaza. Will Kennedy of Bloomberg News doesn't see a major disruption to oil flow in the short-term. Gerard Cassidy, Large Cap Bank Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, reacts to Morgan Stanley's sluggish 3Q earnings. Binky Chadha, Chief Global Strategist & Head of Asset Allocation at Deutsche Bank, says the equity market's resilience indicates durability in consumer demand. Diana Amoa, CIO of Long Biased Strategists at Kirkoswald Asset Management, says sovereign debt issues remain a concern for the treasury market going forward. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer, says margins will come under pressure going forward. Greg Daco, EY Chief Economist, discusses September's strong retail sales report. Meghan Graper, Barclays Global Debt Capital Markets Co-Head, says that more discipline is being applied to investment decisions. Sri Natarajan, Bloomberg News, says recent banks earnings reflect a 'transitional quarter.' Henrietta Treyz says Congress is eager to begin the voting process on aid for Israel.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says his favorite hedge at the moment is calls on the treasury market. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says there's evidence of capitulation in the markets. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director, says the Israel-Hamas war will define what direction the region goes next. Erika Najarian, UBS Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance Equity Research Analyst, discusses bank earnings. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains how he factors geopolitical risk into his outlook as he attempts to anticipate markets.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath and WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala speak with Bloomberg's Tom Keene at the IMF Meeting in Marrakech, Morocco.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News, discusses Citi, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo earnings. Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, says banks can continue to enjoy net interest income growth if they "hold the line" in deposit costs and the Fed stays higher for longer. Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas Head of US Equity & Derivatives Strategy, believes the Fed has put in its last hike but there is a risk they go again. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, says the current state of Washington is a circus and a clown show. Rep. Mike Lawler, (R) New York, discusses the Israel-Hamas war, as well as Scalise ending his bid for House speaker. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. Bloomberg's monthly program, Chief Future Officer, profiles these leaders and explores the impact they're making on their companies and industries. This episode profiles Martin Hoffmann, who holds two leadership positions at the Swiss athletic footwear and apparel company On -- serving as both CFO and Co-CEO. He tells Anna Edwards how On is poised to continue its growth with an increased focus on apparel, raising its profile in tennis, and expanding its portfolio of flagship stores.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says the last mile to get us back to 2% inflation on a sustained basis is tough. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, still sees inflation coming down. Elliot Ackerman, Former White House Fellow, US Marine Corps Veteran & Co-Author of 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, discusses the Israel-Hamas war. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management CEO, sees some sort of yield curve control being brought into the US. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses Delta earnings. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Daleep Singh, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Global Economist, says there's been a flight to quality as markets wade through the "fog of war." Julie Norman, UCL Centre On US Politics Co-director, says Israel faces a challenging path forward as they respond to the attacks by Hamas. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed is succeeding with their tightening and that the economy is moving towards a faster slowdown. Savita Subramanian, BofA Global Research Head of US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, says markets can rip from here and sees a 4,600 S&P by year-end. Alix Steel, Bloomberg News and Julian Lee, Bloomberg News, discuss Exxon to buy Pioneer for $60B.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, says there's no policy decision on re-freezing Iranian money. Tzipi Hotovely, Ambassador of Israel to the United Kingdom, says "Israelis are united now... I'm sure that a unity government will happen and it will be the reality." Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says banks have been a particularly tricky sector. Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for the Middle East and Africa studies, says "Iran is playing the role of the agent of chaos in the region." Rep. French Hill (R) Arkansas, sees the speaker chaos in Washington potentially threatening future aid and support to Israel.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ron Dermer, Israel Minister of Strategic Affairs, says Israel has a clear goal to cripple the capabilities of Hamas. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow & Author of "Saudi Inc.", discusses oil surging after Hamas' attack on Israel. Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, says if you start to see any terrorist activity in non-Middle Eastern countries, that is something that could shake confidence in the world. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser for the Transnational Threats Project, says Iran was unlikely to have played a "robust, active role in planning attacks" on Israel but they do enable proxiesGet the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julie Su, United States Acting Secretary of Labor, discusses US payrolls growth blowing past estimates. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Former Fed Governor, says it's possible that we could have a Goldilocks scenario with a strong labor market and not-too-high wage growth. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says this is a much stronger labor market. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder and Head of Research, maintains her call of $100 oil by Halloween despite the recent price slump in oil. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says the economy is not going to be able to handle these rates, but the Fed will be the last to admit that. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says there's room for fixed income in portfolios. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, sees concern as people question the trajectory of treasuries. Kevin Tynan, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the latest in the EV market, as well as UAW strikes. Rep. Bill Huizenga, (R) Michigan, expects "real trouble" if bond rates continue to go up, as the US govt faces a potential shutdown on November 17th. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says GOP principals remain intact but the party has lost their way tactically as Kevin McCarthy was ousted as House Speaker. Gene Tannuzzo, Columbia Threadneedle Global Head of Fixed Income, says we have seen a steepening that should give investors pause. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says the fact that 10-year yields are higher is probably consistent with what the Fed is trying to achieve. Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, doesn't expect any big bank failures to happen this year. Jennifer Flitton, Invesco Head of US Government Affairs, says a US government shutdown on November 17th is possible. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chris Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Equity Strategy, discusses Wells Fargo's call for 4420 on the S&P 500 year-end. Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Investment Strategist, says 5% or 6% on the 10-year could be possible. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, says United airlines could save $80M a year if the average passenger weight falls by 10 pounds. Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, says the consumer will face a number of hurdles. Gov. Ned Lamont, (D) Connecticut, says Connecticut is not currently facing a migrant crisis but he's watching the situation carefully.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says she saw concern, not fear, in markets as the US faced a potential government shutdown. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says EUR-USD towards parity is possible. Mike Darda, Roth MKM Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says yield trades can be unwound over the course of the year if we see softer data. Rep. French Hill (R) Arkansas, discusses congress averting a US government shutdown. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says it's time to buy equities. Veronica Clark, Citi Economist, discusses US economic data including Personal Income and Spending. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says the BOJ is trying to straddle a fine line. Patrick Anderson, Anderson Economic Group Founder & CEO, discusses the UAW strikes and says says there's no base case for success in the terms of the electric vehicle transition. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, sees the Fed cutting rates materially next year. Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says bears got it wrong on Apple. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says we're bracing for a higher-for-longer environment. Rep. Bryan Steil (R) Wisconsin, says the DC system in which they are working on spending may be broken.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bob Michele, JP Morgan Asset Management Global Head of Fixed Income says the Fed won't go to 5.75% - 6% rates. Nadia Lovell, UBS Global Wealth Management Senior US Equity Strategist says the earnings recession is over. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst weighs in on a looming government shutdown. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder and Head of Research shares her outlook for oil prices.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer, says we are seeing a breakdown again in a lot of the stock market. Queens' College Cambridge President Mohamed El-Erian, Former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown & Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence sit down with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro to talk about their new book "Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World", as well as the future of AI. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says there is evidence higher rates are biting the economy. Elaine Kamarck, Former Clinton Administration Official & Brookings Senior Fellow, discusses Biden set to join the UAW picket line and the 2024 presidential race. Sheila Johnson, BET Co-Founder, discusses her new book "Walk Through Fire: A Memoir of Love, Loss and Triumph." Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a special episode of the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Jonathan Ferro sits down with global economist Mohamad El-Erian, former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and renowned scholar Michael Spence to discuss their new book, 'Permacrisis.'See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Katy Kaminski of Alpha Simplex sees equity markets disjointed from fixed income. Earl Davis of BMO Asset Management sees 2024 as a cyclical bull market. Holger Schmieding of Berenberg expects upside for Europe next year. Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair says more banks are going to fail. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christyan Malek, JP Morgan Securities Global Head of Energy Strategy, sees oil normalizing towards $100. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says the dollar strength is already near levels where it is becoming disruptive. Saira Malik, Nuveen CIO, says the soft landing narrative is being challenged. Janet Henry, HSBC Global Chief Economist, says this is an unusual cycle. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance, live from the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in London. Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz speak with James Zelter, co-president of Apollo Global Management. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard says the prospects for soft landing look good. Sree Kochugovindan, Abrdn Senior Research Economist reacts to the BOE rate decision. Edward Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research says there is no longer an oversupply of oil. Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist discusses the FX market amid a busy week of central bank decisions. Daniel Levy, Tottenham Hotspur Chairman talks about the recent sale of star striker Harry Kane to Bayern Munich.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Jonathan Ferro break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cathie Wood, ARK Invest CEO & CIO, discusses Ark acquiring Rize ETF. Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth Chief Investment Officer, doesn't see inflation falling to the Fed's 2% mandate. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says we can get to EUR-USD parity. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says China is exporting deflation and goods prices to the rest of the world.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Max Kettner of HSBS says tech still has room to run over the next few weeks. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President sees a higher chance of a US recession than he did before. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the euro will feel the impact of global crises more than the US dollar. Simon French, Panmure Gordon Chief Economist and Head of Research looks ahead to Thursday's BOE rate decision. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.