Bloomberg Surveillance

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his much-anticipated speech at the Kansas City Fed Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. While many were expecting some kind of academic or theoretical discussion, the text was straightforwardly about the current path of monetary policy. So what did we learn? What actually happens at Jackson Hole? And how did this year's event fit in with prior years? On this bonus episode, Odd Lots turn to Bloomberg Surveillance co-host Tom Keene and Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics and Policy Correspondent.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says the central bank's data-dependency forces it to act meeting by meeting. She spoke with host Tom Keene on the sidelines of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz, live From the 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium with esteemed guests including Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College Cambridge, Tracy Alloway of Bloomberg Odd Lots, Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed, Kristalina Georgieva of the IMF and Barry Eichengreen of UC Berkeley.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard says the biggest question right now is of reacceleration in the US economy. Michael Darda of Roth MKM says the probability of a recession happening in the US are high. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi Asset Strategist says market sentiment has turned bearish over the last two weeks.Diana Amoa of Kirkoswald Asset Management says growth outside the US is lackluster.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities US Chief Economist, says there's a lot of idiosyncratic risk out there. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says this is more likely a rally in a bear market. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, says Fed Chair Powell could "pat itself on the back" as the US sees lower inflation and a better economy but "I don't think it's time for him to do that." Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, discusses the first GOP presidential debate tonight. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says a 6% 10-year yield is not crazy. Vincent Reinhart, Chief Economist and Macro Strategist Dreyfus and Mellon, says current yield levels are sustainable. Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Senior Retail Analyst, says we are seeing signs of a discretionary recession. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder, says fixed income returns are better than a year ago.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, says this is not an end of a bull market run, this is just a correction. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says we are in the early stages of the distress cycle. William Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says China may need to install a social safety net for their economy. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics Policy Director at Brown University, says Gov. Ron DeSantis has the most to gain and the most to lose at the first GOP debate, as President Trump continues to lead in polls. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Edward Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, says the Fed can't really afford to see bond yields keep going up. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says this is the time to be buying fixed income. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses air travel and says domestic fares are seeing declines. Steve Pagliuca, Bain Capital Senior Advisor & Atalanta Co-Chairman, says the recent Saudi investment in football may disrupt the premier league as players see pays rise.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Athey, Abrdn Investment Director, says credit spread are too tight. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist, still expects a recession and for equities to come down. Susan Thornton, Yale University Law School Paul Tsai China Center Senior Fellow, says China needs households to start spending. Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst and Assistant Director of Research, discusses Walmart lifting its profit outlook on a boost from US shoppers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says it does feel like equities are topping out a little bit. Greg Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, thinks we're in this stronger growth environment but at the same time we will see above trend default and distress activity. Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, says he sees headwinds emerging for retail sales. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, discusses Target and TJX earnings. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bob Doll, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer, says he's cautious on the markets and economy as cracks are beginning to develop. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, believes the ECB is done hiking. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, discusses US retail sales exceeding forecast. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses Trump's indictment in Georgia. Drew Reading, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Home Depot earnings topping estimates. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former President Trump has been indicted for a fourth time. Here's everything you need to know about the new charges. For more podcasts like this, and the news you need to start your day, subscribe to the Bloomberg Daybreak Podcast: Apple: http://bit.ly/3DWYoAN Spotify: http://bit.ly/3jGRYiB Anywhere: http://bit.ly/3J1bct9See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Head of US Large-Cap Bank Research says Goldman Sachs shares would probably go down if David Solomon were fired today. Sebastien Page, T. Rowe Price Chief Investment Officer and Head of Global Multi-Asset says the greatest risk right now is a selloff in stocks. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global head of FX Strategy says the FX market is in a tight range. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director weighs in on the likelihood that President Trump will participate in next weeks GOP debate. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, doesn't think the US is headed to a soft landing. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, says the markets are enamored with Europe, China. Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Research Analyst and Assistant Director of Research, discusses upcoming retail earnings from Walmart and Target. Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says the House is behind the curve here.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, says the Fed hasn't done enough. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says inflation could get back down to 2% on its own.Jessica Reif Ehrlich, BofA Securities Senior Media & Entertainment Analyst, discusses Disney raising prices for its streaming services by as much as 27%. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Research Director, discusses the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark Cabana, BofA Securities Head of US Rates Strategy says the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Chief Economist says the US economy is in a disinflationary trend. Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Market Strategist says it's a stock pickers market. Michael Nathanson, SVB MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst says Disney's parks are not for sale as CEO Bob Iger tries to turn the company around.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank Chief Global Strategist & Head of Asset Allocation, says we are due for a 3-5% pullback in the equity markets as outlined in his "Wobble" call. Meera Pandit, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says we are in an environment where stocks are "jogging in place." Rob Waldner, Invesco Chief Fixed income strategist & Head of Macro Research, there's a risk that the Fed overstays their welcome. Lee Klaskow, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses UPS earnings. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder & "Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein" Host, discusses his interview with Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital Founder & CEO.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says the markets need to stop, pause and have a moment of digestion. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer and Morgan Stanley Global Investment Committee Chair, says be 'very selective' with stocks. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses why he's bullish on Apple despite weak earnings. Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute Chief Economist for North America, says the consumer and economy are shifting. Sri Natarajan, Bloomberg News, discusses Goldman Sachs commodities research chief Jeff Currie set to leave the bank. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund says we are seeing normalization in the labor market. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President says we're in a rolling recovery, but the second half of the year could be challenging. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Senior Research Analyst, says Amazon's cost cuts could impact customers going forward. Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy Director at Brown University says the Trump indictment emboldens his base.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sree Kochugovindan, Abrdn Senior Research Economist, discusses the BOE raising rates by 25 basis points. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, sees continued earnings resilience. Tom Porcelli, PGIM Fixed Income Chief US Economist, says he doesn't expect the US to suffer through a recession. Tom Wagner, Birmingham City FC Owner and Co-Chairman & Knighthead Capital Co-Founder, discusses his recent purchase of Birmingham City FC. Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence, previews Amazon and Apple earnings. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, says he questions Fitch's US credit downgrade and its timing.Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income Chief Investment Strategist, says there has been an erosion in the US and its governance. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Mgmt. CIO & Head of Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities, says the US is headed to recession near year-end. Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Global Markets Global Chief Economist, says we need to see some easing in services spending. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Head of Derivatives Strategy, says the options market is "terrible" at pricing political and geopolitical events. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Doug Krizner, Bryan Curtis, and Ed Baxter break down the latest federal charges against former President Donald Trump with Bloomberg Law host June Grasso and Political Contributor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Elyse Ausenbaugh, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management Investment Strategist, says the Fed could be in a place to cut rates next year. Helane Becker, TD Cowen Senior Research Analyst, says this summer is all about Europe and next year will be all about Asia, as international travel picks up. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says his biggest headache right now is higher oil prices. Regina Mayor, KPMG Global Head of Energy, discusses rising oil and gas prices. Jonathan Miller, Miller Samuel President & CEO, says housing prices have leveled off. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Levitt, of Invesco says we're likely to see a pullback in 2024. Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics says it's not clear what the Bank of Japan is up to. Wendy Schiller of Brown University says it looks like Donald Trump owns the Republican Party. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President says he's bearish for the remainder of 2023.Zak Brown, CEO of McLaren Racing says it's awesome to see how big Formula 1 has gotten in the United States. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Sr. Market Strategist, says "everything is on the table" for the BOJ after they announced a surprise loosening of yield curve controls. Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief US Economist, says the US is still a long way from price stability. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the BOJ's surprise yield curve actions were to "take themselves away from being pushed into a corner by market conditions." Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, sees core CPI at 3.9% this year. Jay Pelosky, TPW Advisory Principal & Founder, says "we're at the end of the rate hiking cycle in the west." Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Richard Clarida, Fmr. Federal Reserve Vice Chair, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor & Columbia University Professor, says one more Fed hike is in play in the fall. James Athey, Abrdn Investment Director, reacts to the ECB hiking rates by 25 basis points. Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon Chief Economist and Macro Strategist, says Fed Chair Jerome Powell is "pretty confusing."Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Meta revenue, forecast beating estimates. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Surveillance discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ethan Harris, BofA Securities Head of Global Economics, sees a mild recession early next year. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist says market is pricing in four Fed rate cuts next year. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist says there's a lot of disinflation in the pipeline. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Research Analyst says AI is going to bigger than the street anticipates. Sean O'Brien, Brotherhood of Teamsters General President says Amazon is definitely a target going forward.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Drew Matus, Chief Market Strategist at MetLife Investment Management sees longer term potential growth at 3% GDP. Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income says the US remains on solid economic footing and doesn't expect a recession. Paul Jacobson, General Motors CFO says the company has the vehicles customers demand. Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley Head of Fixed Income Research says the Fed will hike this month, but not in September. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Co-Chairman & "Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein" Host sees slow office valuation diminution.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gargi Chaudhuri, BlackRock Head of iShares Investment Strategy Americas, says its too early to call victory on inflation. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Chief Economist, expects to see the last Fed hike of this cycle at Wednesday's meeting. Matt Brill, Invesco Head of North America Investment Grade Credit, says we are set up for 6 months of good total returns. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, says Russia is strategically blocking grains. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College Cambridge expects a dovish Fed and a hawkish BOE. Win Thin of Brown Brothers Harriman could see a higher dollar ahead. Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics says the situation in the Black Sea is devastating. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research says that the development of AI will mean the fiscal system will need revamping. Vinai Venkatesham of Arsenal FC says the US has become their top international market ahead of their friendly in New Jersey against Manchester United. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says the Fed will hike in July and that will be it.Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Netflix earnings. Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets Head of US Rates Strategy, expects a dovish hike from the Fed next week. Steve Trent, Citi Americas Airline Analyst & Managing Director, discusses airline earnings, including United and American Airlines. Daniel Ricciardo, AlphaTauri F1 Driver, says he hopes to race for Red Bull again, as he prepares to make his return to F1 with AlphaTauri in Hungary this weekend. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research Head of US Economic Research, believes the probability of a Fed hike after July is higher than what markets are pricing in. Anna Han, Wells Fargo Securities Equity Strategist, says you want to be "chasing" big tech momentum but "when the train has left, look for growth opportunities in other areas." Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says more weakness is coming to markets as defaults "flow through" but doesn't necessarily see a recession. Sri Natarajan, Bloomberg News, discusses Goldman Sachs earnings.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, says we're heading back to 2% inflation. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Head of Derivatives Strategy, says the market rally could broaden out. Ed Morse, Citigroup Global Head of Commodity Research, sees a $90 ceiling for oil. Gregory Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, says markets are gaining excitement as they see policy rates peaking. Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, discusses Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, discusses tariffs on China and the state of the US economy. David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth CIO, says 2-2.5% inflation is possible in 2024. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says if the Fed is at the end of the cycle, bonds are going to outperform. Tom Michaud, KBW CEO, expects to see more consolidation among the smaller US banks. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ken Leon, CFRA Director of Equity Research, discusses US bank earnings kicking off. Meghan Swiber, BofA Director of US Rates Strategy, expects stickier inflation in the near-term. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says the US is on track for a soft landing. Pooja Sriram, Barclays US Economist, sees a mild, shallow recession.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says we are nowhere near the 2% inflation target.Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, is sticking with his 4,600 S&P price target but says it could be raised to 4,800. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, expects GDP growth in the US to be the slowest among the major economies. Erika Najarian, UBS Equity Research Analyst, Large-Cap Banks and Consumer Finance, previews US bank earnings kicking off Friday. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chief Financial Officers now play a critical role in shaping corporate strategy and positioning organizations to meet future challenges. Bloomberg's monthly program, Chief Future Officer, profiles these leaders and explores the impact they're making on their companies and industries. This episode profiles Fenway Sports Group CFO Julie Swinehart, who plays a central role in the company's plans to expand its portfolio of professional sports teams and continue investing in venues and real estate development.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, Fmr. NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the latest US CPI data won't change the Fed's trajectory in the July meeting. Michael Gapen, BofA Securities Head of US Economics, sees nominal GDP growth remaining healthy until 2025. Megan Horneman, Verdence Capital Advisors Chief Investment Officer, says the Fed can't take their foot off the pedal yet. Michael Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Market Strategist, discusses the US June CPI print.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, still expects a recession but says it doesn't have to be severe. Phil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager, says his recession probability has dropped to 25% from 40% in March. Claudia Sahm, Former Federal Reserve Economist, Sahm Consulting Founder & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says everything is puzzling with the Fed. Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Chief investment Officer, expects a short and shallow recession. Jonathan Miler, Miller Samuel President & CEO, says housing prices will rise more than people think. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says if we do have a recession, the market will be able to focus on the bigger picture and it may not be as damaging as some assume. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says we'll need a recession in order to get inflation to 3% or below. Alifia Doriwala, RockCreek Group Managing Director, says diversification is key, "especially in this type of uncertain environment." Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities Head of US Rates Strategy, sees the first Fed cut in March of 2024.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julie Su, Acting US Secretary of Labor, discusses the US June payrolls report coming in below estimates. Randall Kroszner, University of Chicago Booth School Professor of Economics & Fmr. Fed Governor, says "wage growth is still stronger than the Fed will feel comfortable with." Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says the jobs report "keeps the Fed on the path for an addition rate increase later this month." Christian Horner, Red Bull Racing Team Principal, says Max Verstappen "continues to surprise us" and there's "more to come." Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, reacts to the ADP report and US jobless claims. Dominic Konstam, Mizuho Americas Head of Macro Strategy, says a hard landing is still on the radar. Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, says we're in a "tricky late-cycle environment." George Goncalves, MUFG Head of US Macro Strategy, says it would take a lot to derail a hike at the next Fed meeting. As Instagram unveils the Threads app, Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, says it will be "very difficult" to gain critical mass. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI Chairman & Head of Macro Economic Research, sees the Fed hiking one more time then they will be done. Thomas Tzitzouris, Strategas Head of Fixed Income Research, believes inflation expectations are bottoming for this cycle. David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, warns against chasing the rally. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, isn't surprised by Saudi Arabia's search for "global prestige" in the sports world, as they are "not really getting it from oil anymore." Helane Becker, TD Cowen Senior Research Analyst, discusses the airline industry following the influx of travel on July 4th. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist says it would take a payroll print of less than 100,000 and a downside surprise in CPI for the Fed to not hike in July. Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO Market Strategist says the US is in a growth recession today. Anna Han, Wells Fargo Securities says it's time to take some profits on your winners. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President says rates are going to continue to drift higher. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director of Policy Research says the bar is low for US-China talks. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, sees a recession in the first half of 2024. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses Apple as Citi sees another 30% upside. Paul Donovan, UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist, says we're seeing disinflation. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, says he struggles to see a big downside surprise in earnings. Clint Henderson, The Points Guy Managing Editor, discusses airline delays persisting ahead of the holiday weekend. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, says good news is bad news for the Fed. Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Macro Strategy, says equities in Japan look attractive. Elyse Ausenbaugh, J.P. Morgan Global Wealth Management Investment Strategist, says leadership in the next cycle will look different. Kona Haque, ED&F Man Head of Research, discusses commodities. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg News, discusses UBS tapping Morgan Stanley’s Tom Wipf to help lead Credit Suisse tie-up.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical & Macro Strategy, says they've seen some "stalling in tech." Joseph Amato, Neuberger Berman President and Chief Investment Officer for Equities, says central bankers are still at the "center of the debate" with what will happen in the economy. Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, discusses BlackRock's mid-year outlook. Helane Becker, TD Cowen Senior Research Analyst, discusses airlines preparing for the holiday travel weekend. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks about his market positioning and why he's currently net short.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says we're seeing some "fatigue" in tech buying. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says a number of factors could be "muting the effect of monetary policy transmission," and as those effects decline, "we can start seeing more of a slowing in activity." Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, sees weakness ahead for the dollar. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth CIO, believes in the 60/40 portfolio plus alternatives. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder, discusses his interview with Afsaneh Beschloss, RockCreek Founder & CEO.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.