Bloomberg Surveillance

Helane Becker, TD Cowen Sr. Research Analyst, remains confident in the airline industry despite the recent Boeing in-flight safety incident. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says sentiments around the equity market got carried away at the end of 2023. Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Bloomberg Opinion Writer, says December's jobs data points to a healthy labor market. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director of Policy Research, discusses Congress' agreement on a spending-cap deal as well as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's unannounced stay in the hospital. Barton Crockett, Rosenblatt Securities Managing Director, details the reasons behind his firm's neutral outlook on Apple this year. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Helene Becker joins now senior research analyst at TD Cowen, and we're thrilled that she could be with us today. Helene, January twenty second. I guess we get an earnings report from United, the others will lined up. What is their urgency to act, not so much off the Boeing accident, but their urgency to act because of the topsy turvy markets they're in now. I think that we have a situation where we're expecting, or we saw fourth quarter traffic was pretty good. The further we get away from twenty twenty, the more we'll see managed corporate travel come back. I think the trip where you have maybe a one day trip isn't coming back anytime soon. I feel like it's a lot like after nine to eleven tom when the really short haul trips went away, and we expect that to continue really now. But the longer haul trips. People need to get out, they need to see their clients. We've been talking about this for about a year now and we're seeing that. We're seeing that increase in managed travel, and we think that we'll continue into the rest of this year. With the Boeing accident, with the rivets, the fasteners, whatever, we're going to see in the coming weeks of that analysis, even months, I should say, of that analysis, what does it mean for the dynamic of refleeting A word I discovered last week. I think Helene Becker, you know, refleeting is going out and buying the bright, shiny new thing accelerated. Yeah, well yes, and no American did their refleeting in the last decade, so they're on the downside of that. United is doing it now and into twenty thirty two. Delta is in the middle of it. But Delta has a different and Southwest actually have different viewpoints on the way they refleet. They kind of spend about ten percent revenue on capex, somewhere between eight and ten percent every year, so they're continually refleeting, so we view that fairly favorably. I don't think anything changes. There's a lot of pressure on the industry to lower their carbon footprint. I know aviation only makes up two percent of total transportation carbon, but others are doing the whole reduction carbon faster, so aviation over time will become a bigger percentage of it. So there's a lot of pressure to fly young are more fully efficient aircraft oleane. I can't get past this comment from George ferguson words you never want to hear, when he basically came out and said it's not as safe as it was before the pandemic, talking about the safety of flying at a time when we did just have this incident with Alaska Airlines, also the incident that we saw in Japan, Questions around the competency and staffing levels at some of the agencies. Are you concerned? Do you feel like that is an accurate statement that it is not as safe to fly today as pre pandemic. No, no, no, I disagree with that completely. The fact that there were no casualties on the japan Air A three thirty is hugely significant. They were able to evacuate that entire aircraft without any incident, with half the doors being half the emergency doors being unusable because of fire. So I think that's one thing to consider. I think from an aviation perspective and a safety perspect that every time there's an incident, there's an investigation. There is no cover up. You never see that as you would in some as you may in some other industries. There have it. I mean, not to cha the industry, but there really haven't been any major accidents. The fact that Alaska air pilots were able to declare any emergency turnaround land safely with no injuries is hugely significant. And I think aviation is still the sepest form of transportation. No other industry does the deep dive into accidents that aviation does, and then aviation trains for every accident

Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor of Economics & former Fed Governor, along with Bill Dudley, former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, and Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Economist, break down December's stronger-than-expected US jobs report. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the latest on oil with news that Maersk will avoid sending ships through the Red Sea for the 'foreseeable future' amid increasing violence from Houthi rebels.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, breaks down the year's first US weekly jobless claims report which fell below all estimates. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says we've entered the next phase for bonds as she shifts from long positioning to short. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst, previews a busy month ahead in Washington ahead of Congress' return. Steve Trent, Americas Airline Analyst, advises a selective approach with airline investments. Sarah Hewin, Standard Chartered Head of Europe & Americas Research, predicts the ECB will cut interest rates before the Fed.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed's easing of financial conditions could pose risks to the US economy. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, suggests that a potential repricing of rates would be a pain trade. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, says Apple's growth potential makes the stock a 'golden buying opportunity.' Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Large Cap Bank Analyst, advises incorporating bank stocks into investor portfolios and believes we'll see further consolidation in the industry. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, discusses the latest in the Middle East after a senior Hamas official was killed in Beirut. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Right now, our conversation of the day. Synthesizing all this together. Torson Stock is chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Torson I'm going to pull in here a whole bunch of threads. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is showing massive accommodation, and yet I look at the old liboard, the news, Sofa, sofr and I'm seeing huge restriction within the short term paper market tensions on Wall Street and the ill liquidity on Wall Street. How urgent is it for the FED to make some direction on a March cut or dare I even say a January first cut? Well, it has a number of different dimensions. First, there is a dimension on the real economy. It's clear that the FED pivot has eased financial conditions dramatically, and this begins to run the risk that we might see a repeat of what happened at the citycon Valley Bank. Remember Chris Waller just said a few weeks ago the easing of financial conditions in Q two that boost the GDP growth to five percent in Q three. Could we see the same now where the easing of financial conditions after the fat pivot might actually be boosting the housing market, the label market, services inflation, goods inflation. We are not out of the woods when it comes to battling inflation. So on the real economy, absolutely, the easing of financial conditions is very supportive. There are some issues when it comes to the plumbing when the tightness as you're highlighting in very short term markets, and the FED for sure has to play this difficult talk of wall between do we want to ease financial condition on the rial side or how much can we ease financial conditions in the very front end of the curve. But this is the challenge for the FED. At the moment that you're highlighting, Torsten, you didn't listen. They didn't respond to the idea of financial conditions. They didn't seem to think it mattered at all at the last press conference. Why should it matter now? I mean we're going to actually hear them come back and say, actually, just kidding about that financial conditions question. Well, they were debating in October and September, well maybe financial conditions have done a lot of the work for us, and now they're saying, well, maybe financial conditions it doesn't really matter because it can fluctuate so much. So I still think that it's a little bit inconsistent what they're saying when that data dependency, it only talks about the real data, whereas the financial conditions impulse. If you take the easy and financial conditions that we've had since the fit pivot and stuff it into furpose the fed's model of the US economy, you will get a boom of up to one and a half percent growth over the next slevel quarters in GDP. It's going to be very supportive as a tailwind to the economic outlook. Although we did have Ganadi on earlier of TD securities, and he said even with this idea that inflation could remain stickier, that we could get this ongoing growth, the FED could still cut rates and still be restrictive. Given the positive real rate. Do you ascribe to that kind of thing or do you think that just means many fewer rate cuts going forward for the Fed. I think that's absolutely right that we have. Of course, for the better part of the last year, we have talked about higher for longer. Now the conversation is more restrictive for longer, because they can still be restrictive if inflation is coming down, because real interest rates is what matters. So if real interest rates are still positive as inflation comes down, the fact and according you also gradually begin to lower rates. But note also that if you look at the outlook for sofa futures, as also Tom was mentioning, you still have that the bottom will still be around

John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Chief Investment Strategist, says the consumer and the jobs market will play an important role in 2024. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & Former White House Fellow, overviews the latest in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific as global geopolitical tensions continue to rise. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says six rate cuts could indicate a weaker economic scenario. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, advises holding a long position on oil. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details the catalysts that could drag down stocks in his '10 surprises of 2024.' Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. John Stolfus joints chief investment Strategist at op co Op and I'm our asset management and we speak to him about the bullmarket he nailed last year and continues to nail this year. John, I'm going to take it back to the analog of the middle seventies, a horrific recession, the leap in nineteen seventy five, and then a follow on in nineteen seventy seven. It's twenty twenty four, a follow on bullmarket. I think in many ways it is, Tom. I think the question here really is, or rather the difference is, it's a substantially different background in terms of a digitalized global society for business as a consumer and what was back then, which was essentially an analog world. And I think things get digested much quicker. I think that the data is a better quality. And because we've been in crisis in an out of crisis since two thousand and eight, all the players as well as you know, the traders as well as the investors are more experienced with dealing with volatility. John, I think what's so important here is only Stolphus is talking about last year was a prelude. I just think that's so important. Fifty two hundred price target year rent this year, John, let's build on that. You and I have talked about this a few times in the last few months, and I've appreciate it. Can we just address it right now? How dependent that call is on interest rate cuts from the feder Reserve? Not much really. You know, we're not of the camp it's looking for six cuts this year in twenty twenty four. We're looking for perhaps one or two. And we're not looking for the first half for cuts. We think it'll happen in the second half of the year, and lightly later rather than earlier. In the second half. To us, the Fed has been remarkably sensitive in practicing its mandate. You know, where as able to comy and full employment is described by unemployment between three and four percent, and we think it wants to keep it that way, and so that's what we're looking at A little bit different. We like the Fed. Ironically, very few people do we think the Fed has done. It shows the Ben Bernank legacy carried on through Jerome Powell in the sense of communication and clarity. So it might not necessarily the rally my not be dependent on j. Powell. But how much is it dependent on the Central Bank of Tim Cook? I would have to say, perhaps I'll keep it away from a company specific here, but I would say certainly a business, the consumer and the jobs market will play an important role this year. Keyword to watch for is resilience when we look at economic data, what we're looking at is for things to show resilience, and naturally is a challenging environment when you're making transitions and you have the levels of trouble around the world. The geopolitical risks seems to keep ramping up by the day. But consider where business plays out in this where the opportunities are both this cyclical point where we are on the calendar, as well as the secular trends that are driving potential growth for all eleven sectors. Okay, So in other words, his text still lead me. I guess if that's the question at a time, or that accounted for fifteen percent of the twenty four percent game of the SMP last year at least, I think tech certainly remains a major participant in this, But I think what we need to watch well, of course communications services, which is about fifty percent tech related, you also have when you look at the other sectors, just think about industrials and all the technology in that. And it's a good customer of technology, whether it's it's sensors of robotics or what have you, and the cloud, big data and all that aon. So when we look at this, it's you know, whether it's it's a utility company, whether it's a materials company, whether it's a pharmaceutical or a bio

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Sam Stovall, CFRA Chief Investment Strategist, advises going for breadth in equity investments next year. Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Chief Correspondent, recaps another robust year for Apple and discusses the ongoing legal saga with the Apple Watch. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, says markets may be undervaluing geopolitical and US domestic risks. Angela Stent, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, breaks down the latest in the Russia-Ukraine war amid Russia's largest missile barrage since the invasion began. Josh Weinstein, Carnival CEO, walks through a year that saw record demand for the international cruise line.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cathie Wood, Ark Investment Management CEO, CIO & Founder, recaps a prosperous year for Ark Invest ETFs and discusses her outlook on the crypto and technology sectors for 2024. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, breaks down the final jobless claims data of 2023 and predicts a moderation in consumer spending next year. Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones Senior Investment Strategist, says bouts of volatility next year could provide opportunities for investors to get more involved. Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon Senior Market Strategist, says the US dollar has peaked and advises to pick any dollar shorts with caution. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the latest in the global oil markets amid increasing instability in Red Sea trading.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, says the key for investors in 2024 is to be well-diversified. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Large Cap Bank Analyst, advises a risk-on investment strategy going into the new year. Steven Cook, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Middle East & Africa Studies, says the US will opt to remain on the defensive amid recent escalations in the Red Sea. Nadia Martin Wiggen, Svelland Capital Director, overviews the impacts of ongoing geopolitical conflicts on the global oil market. Sel Hardy, CFRA Research Analyst, predicts a gradual recovery in the healthcare sector next year. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, recaps a busy holiday shopping season and says there's been a moderation in consumer spending across all income levels. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, predicts Apple will hit a whopping $4 trillion market capitalization next year. Matt Miskin, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, predicts the Fed will have less influence over markets in 2024. Tom Tzitzouris, Strategas Head of Fixed Income Research, says rate cuts are easier to justify for central banks outside the US than for the Fed. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, overviews escalating tensions in the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas war threatens to spill over. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Gapen, Bank of America Securities Head of US Economics, says November's Core PCE inflation data supports a March rate cut from the Fed. Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research President, calls for a bullish 5,400 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2024. Kim Wallace, 22v Research Head of Washington Policy Research, gives his end-of-year political recap and outlines his expectations for 2024. Deborah Cunningham, Federated Hermes Global Liquidity Markets CIO, says cash is continuing to enter the markets via deposit products and money market funds. Brian Kelly, The Points Guy founder, overviews the holiday travel season and says most of the current travel growth is international.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities Chief US Economist, reacts to a resilient US jobless claims report and cautions that the recession the market is pricing-in doesn't happen. Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says bullishness likely has a wider window to perform going into 2024. Susan Thornton, Paul Tsai China Center at Yale University Senior Fellow, expects a tumultuous year ahead for US-China relations. Robert Fishman, Moffettnathanson Sr. Research Analyst, discusses the potential merger of Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Global.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Hirson, 22V Research Head of China Research, discusses a new NBC News report that claims Xi Jinping warned President Biden that Beijing intends to reunify Taiwan. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says we've already entered a global easing cycle. Jim Caron, CIO, Portfolio Solutions Group, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, advises a balanced portfolio approach going into what he expects to be a 'very rocky year'. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, says Apple margins will continue to expand despite pressure from EU regulators. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, says 'huge' problems lie ahead for the US in addressing the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Moynihan, Bank of America Chairman & CEO, sits down with Bloomberg's David Westin for a conversation on the bank's eventful year in 2023 and his economic outlook going forward. Rich Clarida, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman & Columbia University Professor, says he doesn't think Fed Chair Powell made a mistake in suggesting rate cuts next year. Chris Hyzy, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank Chief Investment Officer, says investors are eyeing a broadening out in the equity market over the next several years. Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale Head of US Rates Strategy, expects the bond market rally to lose momentum going into the year-end. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, discusses the impacts of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea on the global oil market.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says the market could be getting ahead of itself after Fed Chair Powell's optimistic outlook. Priya Misra, JP Morgan Asset Management Portfolio Manager, says markets are not pricing in the chance of Fed cuts below the 3% level. Jay Pelosky, TPW Advisory Principal & Founder, says that we're moving toward a rate cutting cycle in 2024. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & former White House Fellow, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Co-Founder & Managing Director, discusses the impacts of ongoing attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Julian Emanuel, Evercore Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist, expects the Fed to stay as quiet as possible over the next few months after giving markets the ‘all-clear’. Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group United States Managing Director, discusses the implications of increasing global resistance for supplying aid to Ukraine. Greg Daco, EY Chief Economist, says the economy has “all the right ingredients for a disinflationary environment” in 2024. Meghan Swiber, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Director of US Rates Strategy, says uncertainty around inflation is leading to a reluctance for markets to price-in the Fed’s 2% goal. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillanceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Head of Economics, says the Fed is following a "rules-based framework" around inflation and expects the economy to continue top grow. Elyse Ausenbaugh, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Global Investment Strategist, reacts to the ECB decision. Sree Kochugovindan, Abrdn Senior Research Economist, says she sees the possibility of a start of a technical recession in the UK and expects recession-like conditions to persist. Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research Chief Economist, says the runway is wider for a soft landing in the US. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is a joy. Yesterday was humbling ability for everyone, no question about that, and today well accept But today a recalibration year of where we go in our optimism on the American experiment. A few have been right, nobody like Neil duddat how to Economics at Renaissance Macro over the last eighteen months an absolute tewort of force that America economic might will prevail. This morning, David Rosenberg writes of a tepidominal GDP. At the same time, the tech analyst Dan ives Hit Webbush and Joel Fish buying it truest go out two in three years. I'm technical excellence of the Magnificent seven. Can our technology lead continue the dota optimism on American economy? That's a tough question, Tom, I mean, I hope so. I mean, productivity is notoriously difficult to forecast. But if productivity is picking up, which it has been over the last couple of quarters, then it raises the you know, the capacity for the economy grow without stoking inflation, and that takes a lot of pressure off the Fed. The last few months, you've been absolutely locked in. You seem to have some kind of visibility on what's happening here that some of the people are lacking. What's helping you. What's the framework that you're using to see things a little bit more clearly over the last few months. Well, I mean you had mentioned earlier that you know, Powell uh sounded some sounded different a couple of weeks ago. I mean, but you know, to me, the die has been cast for this for for a little bit of time now, I mean, and that's because inflation is slowing more rapidly than they expect. I mean, I think the Fed is following essentially a rules based framework where they're taking changes in inflation and the unemployment rate and translating that into expectations around the federal funds rate. And that's basically what's happening. That's what they did yesterday. And so you know, core inflation in November is likely to come in barely one tenth of one percent month over month, and that means that the momentum going into twenty twenty four is quite weak. And so if they're revising down inflation in December, which they did, and then a few months later they're going to be revising down inflation again in March, what do you expect expect them to do? What I would push back on, John, is this notion that this is because I mean, you know, you see all this already. Oh the ten years broken below four percent, that means a recession is happening. No, that's not what this is about. This is about inflation coming in better and the adjusting as a result, and that's ultimately a good thing. And you know, I think it's going to, you know, give the economy it a chance to continue growing. And I think that's that's what's likely. Well gets you around look on growth in just a moment. Policymakers like to use the word if just to hedge themselves if this continues, we might do this. You don't think that if is that large? You think this is already kind of baked in these right cuts are coming. Well, I don't know that it'll be six because to me, six feels like, you know, if there's a recession, six wouldn't be enough, but if the economy is growing, six feels like too many. Frankly, but I do. I don't think it's much of an if about round inflation. I mean, Powell talked earlier this year about a disinflationary process, and I think that was a little bit premature to talk about it. But now it really does feel like a meaningful disinflationary process is underway, and we have continued moderation in housing rental inflation coming. You know, the Terminal has an article today about Manhattan rants going down year over year. We also know that used car prices will continue to deflate over the next several months, and that was actually it popped in November. So and between that and you know, core goods excluding cars, I mean there's continued downside there as well, so I do. And the labor markets

Blackrock Managing Director Jeffrey Rosenberg discusses the latest Fed decision with Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Lisa Abramowicz, and Jonathan Ferro. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Former NY Fed President Bill Dudley discusses the latest Fed decision with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Tom Keene. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Jay Powell following the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz break down the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Bloomberg Opinion Writer, says her biggest risk factor in the markets is the Fed itself. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management Chief Investment Strategist, says any interest rate cuts would likely happen toward the end of 2024. Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo Global Head of Macro Strategy, says that markets are running ahead of the Fed. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi US Chief Economist, says an overall slowing of economic activity points to a Fed cut. Chris McGratty, KBW Head of US Bank Research, says banks are deleveraging amid expectations of slower growth.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, expects consumers to pull back on spending as core prices ticked up in November. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Investment Strategy and Equity Advisory Solutions, predicts the Fed won't cut rates until the second half of 2024. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says her concern is that the Fed doesn't tighten enough, and allows inflation to become further entrenched. Christyan Malek, JP Morgan Global Head of Energy Strategy and Head of EMEA Oil & Gas Equity Research, says it's only a matter of time until the global oil markets tighten.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Riccadonna, BNP Paribas Chief US Economist, says we still have yet to feel peak restriction. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says there's a place for bonds as investors look to a more balanced portfolio. Greg Valliere, AGF Chief US Policy Strategist, says we could see a surprise from the Democrats with an unknown nominee. Max Layton, Citi Global Head of Commodities Research, says OPEC+ would need to maintain cuts next year in order to balance markets.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Julie Su, US Acting Secretary of Labor, reacts to the better-than-expected November jobs report. Michael Darda, Roth MKM Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says that the report should compel the Fed to hold off on cutting rates in early 2024. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Portfolio Manager of the Systematic Multi-Strategy Fund, says the report suggests a very strong labor market supportive of services inflation. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Managing Director, Short-Term Portfolio Management & Funding, gives his take on the jobs report. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Economist, expects growth to stagnate next year as the Fed's policy drags continue to build. David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth Chief Investment Officer & Global Head Of Investments, says there's opportunity in rising earnings as markets begin to normalize. Randy Kroszner, Univ. of Chicago Professor of Economics & Former Fed Governor, says continued wage growth makes the Fed's inflation goal unlikely. Paul Sankey, Sankey Research Founder & Lead Analyst, says he's concerned that Saudi Arabia may dump the oil market as prices continue to drop. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, recaps a fiery Republican presidential debate.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa Abramoids along with Tom Keane and Jonathan Farrow. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Right now, I've been out a few days, but I really want to reset here on the American economy, and there's no one better to do that than Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pimco. Tiffy, I'm going to go beyond the labor reports. We'll circle back to that. What is your real GDP growth for twenty twenty four? Yeah, I mean, so we think that the good news from twenty twenty three, the resilient story, the you know, two and a half percent kind of above trend GDP growth, you know, that's probably squarely behind us. You know, the saying kind of goes you can't go to heaven twice, and we think some of the factors that led to that, you know, we're still some of these excess savings sloshing around from the pandemic and other supports, and you know, and those kinds of things in our and under our estimation are going away next year. And when you when those things go away, what you're left with is still tight monetary policy, you know. And obviously we have a Federal Reserve that is telling us they're going to remain on hold. So those policy drags are continuing to build. So overall, we think growth probably is closer to something, you know, the stagnant. You know, whether it's slightly positive or slightly negative, I think is anyone's guest. But we're kind of a stagnant situation next year. So are you basically saying that we're in heaven and that this is the Goldilocks and that you can't go there again it's over? Yeah, I mean, so we do think there's a lot of good news this year with the US economy. There's a lot of surprising resilience in the growth numbers, of course, you know, and and so we think, you know, the supply picture, as the Federal Reserve has also pointed out, has also helped that, you know. But again, if you looked at twenty twenty four, you have demand which is potentially coming down, you know, but some of the things that added to supply, like supply chain normalizations. You know, we have the labor force participation rate for the prime age folks that are now you know, it's back to pre pandemic levels. You know, we're just not convinced maybe that you're going to get as much on the supply side next year. Now. Of course, immigration has been a story here, and that's why we've also seen you know, the unemployment rate rise because some of those labor market inflows aren't getting absorbed by just a strong labor demand. But again, overall, all of those signals kind of point to us of something that's closer to more stagnant. More stagnant economy. Baked into this is this assumption that you're going to have higher yields for a longer period of time. You said, what we're going to be left with is just tighter financial conditions, and yet it's unclear whether that's going to be the case. There have been a lot of people calling for pretty substantial rate cuts by the Fed, by the ECP in response to inflation coming down significantly. Do you agree with the paradigm or oil prices stay lower than they have and keep inflecting lower because of production, because of supply, you start to see a re engagement of global trade, forget deglobalization, and you start to get more people come into the workforce. It's basically everyone that people use. It's the opposite of the this time is different narrative that we heard this year. Yeah, well, I mean, I'm not exactly sure in terms of labor market inflows. You know, higher participation rates for that prime age cohort, you know, I'm not sure that that's going to continue to increase. I do think there's some potential for immigration flows to stay high in twenty twenty four. That's been a story not only in the US but across the developed markets. Obviously geop elevated, you know, geopolitical risks and conflicts are are contributing to that as well. But overall, you know, I guess what we

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says the status of the economy doesn't justify the Fed cutting rates. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, claims banks will remain at the center of lending, but that private credit can now compete in ways it previously couldn't. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Director of Public Policy, previews the fourth GOP presidential debate. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & Former White House Fellow, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder, previews a brand-new episode of Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations" featuring Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa abrahmoids along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I've been looking forward to this conversation. Liz An Son is the chief Investments trying to just a chold swap joins us right now. Lizan, I've been looking forward to it because we're not going to talk about self landing, hard landing, no landing, none of that. We're going to talk about what you and a team have been focused on now for a while, and that's rolling recessions. That is a framework, Lizen. Why is that so important for you? That nuance? Well, first of all, this is a unique cycle. That's the ultimate understatement. I think taking a nuanced approach is important, and we've been using that term for quite some time. I think the only other person that I know that's been using as long as we have is Ed yard Denny, and not that we want to rehash the last three and a half years, but if you think about the stimulus fuel demand surge coming out of the worst part of the pandemic, all of that demand and money associated with it was funneled into the good side of the economy because we had no access to services. That was where the inflation problem first began on the good side of the economy, exacerbated by the supply chain disruptions. But fast forward to the more recent period, we've gone into hard landing recessions for housing, manufacturing, a lot of housing related, many of the consumer product areas that were big beneficiaries of the lockdown, and we've gone from inflation to disinflation to deflation in many of the goods categories. We've just had the later offsetting strength on the services side. Same thing as rolled through in terms of inflation. So to me, best case scenario is not really soft landing that Schuberti sailed for many important segments of the economy. It's a continued roll through where if in when services in the labor market get hit, you have found stability and maybe even some improvement in those areas that have already taken their hit. Lezan, love your nuance. Let's build on that. Where are you seeing opportunities that might have hit bottom that you want to be investing in now, In particular sectors that you think already have rolled through, they're hard landing and are now buys. I still think that investors are better off taking a factor based approach as opposed to a monolithic sector based approach, But we have made some adjustments in terms of the foot factors that we're focused on. As you know we've talked about it on this program. We have been emphasizing stay up in quality with factors like interest coverage and strong return on equity and strong balance sheet, but also growthy factors like positive earnings, revisions and surprises. But I think you want to now add kind of evaluation kicker into the mix because this year was characterized by all multiple expansion, no earnings growth. We see in the last month that there is money itching to move out of the Magnificent seven to find opportunities down the cap spectrum. And you have seen some lower quality characteristics to of what has rallied. I think you want to fade that and continue to lean into quality. But you can find it across the spectrum of sectors and also outside that group of just the Magnificent seven. So you said something Lezen talking about how people are itching to take the money that they've put into the Magnificent seven and put it to work elsewhere that might be at a lower valuation. How big is that wave of people is to get out of the Magnificent seven. Is this something that could cause an underperformance or is it just simply there's just been so much money people are looking for other ideas well. So far, so good in terms of the rotational nature of this easing of some of the excesses, You've seen some pullback in the Magnificent seven. The rest of two thousand SMP

Marc Rowan, Apollo CEO, says his firm has no plans to shift from private equity amid the best year in its history, and also discusses rising antisemitism and the 2024 presidential election. Jim Zelter, Apollo Asset Management Co-President, says the Fed put is back in the market. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says there's evidence of a weakening labor market. Olivia Wassenaar, Apollo Head of Sustainable Investing, joins from the COP28 climate summit in Dubai where she says there's a 'tremendous' amount of optimism and capital.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities says he wants to be underweight Treasuries right now.George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, says the ECB should cut rates when it meets next week. Ajay Banga, President of The World Bank joins from COP 28. David Turk, US Department of Energy Deputy Secretary joins from COP 28 where he says now is the time to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Helane Becker, Senior Research Analyst at TD Cowen weighs in on Alaska Air's plans to buy rival, Hawaiian.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Reports of crimes targeting Jews, Muslims and Arabs have risen around the world in since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, and the Israeli military’s retaliatory operation in Gaza. While previous conflicts in the Middle East also sparked a backlash outside the region, this time it is more intense and the wave of hate may be far from cresting, according to advocacy groups, former law enforcement officials and analysts. In this Bloomberg Radio special report, Stephen Carroll examines how these communities are confronting a global surge in hate speech and hate crimes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Liz Young, SoFi Head of Investment Strategy, says the correlation between stocks and bonds could remain positive going forward. Lauren Goodwin, New York Life Investments Economist & Director of Portfolio Strategy, predicts the story around technology in 2024 will expand into the digital infrastructure. Nadia Martin Wiggen, Svelland Capital Director, says she doesn't see a long-term negative price path for oil. Antonio Neri, Hewlett Packard Enterprise President & CEO, discusses the company's expanded partnership with Nvidia into the generative AI space. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, breaks down the "historic" launch of the Tesla Cybertruck.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Micklethwait, Bloomberg Editorial Editor-in-Chief, reflects on the life and career of the late Henry Kissinger. Neil Dutta, Renaissance US Economic Research Head, says the economy is on a glide path toward a Fed interest rate cut by March. John Lawler, Ford Motor Chief Financial Officer, says the company is focusing on increasing efficiencies and reducing labor hours to produce vehicles. Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, suggests the Fed is done hiking rates amid faster-than-expected disinflation. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, discusses the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Henry Kissinger, the child refugee who rose to become US Secretary of State and defined American foreign policy during the 1970s with his strategies to end the Vietnam War and contain communist countries, has died. He was 100.Not long before his passing, Kissinger sat down with Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait for an extended conversation. He talked about his life and career, what shaped his worldview, and his thoughts on the current state of global affairs. Listen here for that special conversation, in its entirety. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mary Barra, GM CEO, discusses the company's announcement of its biggest-ever buyback plan, and says she expects 'strong adoption' of more affordable EVs. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates & Currencies Strategist, says the biggest risk right now is another sudden shock in the oil market. Scott Nuttall, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Co-CEO, discusses his firm's acquisition of insurer Global Atlantic. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the state of services in the economy could threaten the Fed's 2% inflation goal. Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, reflects on the legendary life and career of Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder, previews brand-new episodes of Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations" featuring AIG CEO Peter Zaffino and Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. John Ferrell with Mary Burrow, I want to go through some of the numbers for our audience. Divid end up thirty three percent, biggest ever buyback plan ten billion dollars, forty billion dollar name yesterday. Just some context perspective there that is massive inquiring minds. Mary will want to know why have you decided to deliver a ten billion dollar buy back shortly after you've signed a labor contract that adds nine point three billion to expenses over its term. Well, as we looked at what was happening from a labor perspective, we had built and really the labor environment going into our negotiations, we had put conservative estimates into our plan. So although it was a little higher than what we expected, we believe that we have and our guidance for next year, we've already said that we'll be able to offset that completely with the plan that we already had of a two billion dollar cost out perspective. So we did the right thing to recognize our manufacturing team members who have done a great job and continue to build vehicles safely with high quality. And we also thought that we've got to look and make sure that we're balanced across all of our stakeholders, and our owners are very important. So we think this was a very balanced response when we look at what was done from a labor perspective and what we're doing as part of our capital allocation framework for our owners. Well, let's get into that. So shareholders are super happy. The name is up by almost eleven percent so far this morning. I wonder if you aw Wiz Mary, they didn't get the forty percent they wanted. They got twenty five plus cost of living adjustments and other things as well. Is the old things of this morning not something that concerns you. When I look at it, I think it's balanced. Again, we have very well compensated and you know, when you look at the suite of benefits that our represented team members have it's a very very appropriate package and frankly leading from an industry perspective broader than just the auto industry. So I think we did the right thing to recognize and reward the hard work of our manufacturing team members across the board. But also one of the things our manufacturing team members very much value is job security. And to have job security, you have to have a strong company and you have to look at all of your stakeholders. So what we did from a share buyback perspective for our owners is I think a very balanced response. As you know, this move this morning not just about the capital return program, also about cost cuts. We know you're looking to fully offset that labor contract the additional costs from it. Have you identified where you will cut where you need to cut? Yes, a lot of this was already underway. At the beginning of this year calendar year twenty twenty three, we announced it too, billion dollar cost reduction structural cost reduction between twenty three and the end of twenty four. That's well underway. As I said, we also comprehended that we would have increases in our labor cost as we looked at what the environment was and also wanting to reward our manufacturing employees. So you know there's work going across many aspects of the business and including making our products more efficient while still having the features, the functionality and beautiful designs that our customers want. So there's been a concentrated effort at the company to lower our fixed costs while enabling wonderful products and rewarding the team that is helping us deliver them. Clearly, these are addition

Charles Munger, the alter ego, sidekick and foil to Warren Buffett for almost 60 years as they transformed Berkshire Hathaway Inc. from a failing textile maker into an empire, has died. He was 99. For more on Munger's life and legacy, Bloomberg Radio hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with Bloomberg News reporter Noah Buhayar, and long-time Berkshire investor, Bill Smead of Smead Capital Management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cameron Dawson, Newedge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, says that signs of a recession will come from the market, not the Fed. Bill Dudley, Former NY Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, expects central banks to introduce digital currencies amid disarray in the crypto sector. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Senior Equity Analyst, says AI can take the relationship between banks and technology to another level. Katy Kaminski, AlphaSimplex Chief Research Strategist, says she's concerned about the risk-on rally in the bond market. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war amid the release of more hostages from Gaza. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Cameron Dawson tear eyed over the quality of that data. Check Cio of New Edge Wealth joining us right now. What's your conviction the next year? I'm talking about you need to get conviction. Now, do you have a lot of conviction? I think that we have to judge as we go into the end of the year when we look at where we in the year with positioning and sentiment and valuations and earnings expectations, because if we get to a point where those things are stretched, where people have been drawn into the market, everybody chases the market into a rallying to the year end, that's when you probably want to start asking questions of how sustainable or durable is We learned that lesson really powerfully this year in the opposite direction. People were underweight, valuations had come in, positioning was very light, and that set up for a very powerful year this year. One really difficult thing for a lot of people is to get two things right. Won the call on the economy and to what the economy means for financial markets. I was looking at Deutsche Bank's call yesterday least when I were going back and forth on this, They've got recession one hundred and seventy five basis points of cuts. Then bink chat is saying fifty one hundred on the SMP. Is good news bad news? Or is bad news good news? What is it? I mean, it's sort of that I want it all and I want it now kind of mentality, which is that I want a FED that's supportive, and I want an economy and earnings that are going to be growing very strongly. And I have to think that we need to ask the question of if a strong economy and strong earnings are consistent with having FED rate cuts and a recession, and if we can have both at the same time, meaning that if the FED is cutting rates, can we really grow earnings at twelve percent next year? Do we actually have the potential that we could have a third year in a row of earnings being closer to flat. If we have a recession. Well, this is John Sulfis basically saying people think we're late cycle, we're actually mid cycle. That if the Federal cuts rates is just sort of a mechanical year over year trying to adapt restrictiveness to inflation, and that that will pave the way for companies to continue to evolve, particularly in the consumer cyclicals. Thoughts. Yeah, it's interesting. You go back to the times when the Fed cut rates and we didn't have a recession ninety five, ninety eight, and twenty nineteen. What's interesting is that the Fed was actually very fearful of a recession in each of those times. They talked about the US not being an island. What's interesting is that the market wasn't scared of a recession. There was no impact to earnings. You had the market hitting all time highs as they were cutting rates. So I think we have to take the cue from the market if it starts to sniff out that data is weakening, that data is starting to come in where we need to be cutting earnings stents we don't hit all time highs in markets, that's when you'd say maybe recession risk is actually higher. So what's your conviction is it to basically shift away from the conviction of everybody else that equities are going to go higher and to take the other side. I think it's incredibly important to remain invested even in times of uncertainty, and the way that we do that is focusing on quality, focusing on companies that can block and tackle, which just means that I want to take out the risk that the economy is going to roll over and I'm going to have big earnings downside. But I also don't want to be over levered. I don't want to be overextended on risk having to have the best case scenario in order for my investments to work. So it's still that middle ground. It's worked really well this year, it likely wo

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says the path for equities is higher in 2024. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, breaks down record-high Black Friday sales. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, discusses the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management, says the Fed's rate policy is leading to a gradual slowdown. Steve Schwarzman, Chairman & CEO of Blackstone Inc., says his firm has seen a bevy of buying opportunities in real estate across Europe. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin the program with Lori Cavasina, head of US ecority Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Lori, good morning. We hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I want to kick off with your call fifty one hundred for five thousand rather year rent on the s and P five hundred for next year Deutsche Bank going one further, a fifty one hundred, Lurie talk to us about the path to five k. Well, thanks for having me as always, and look, you know we purposefully did not put out you know, we see a near term pullback and a resurgence. I think a lot of people got caught in that trap in twenty twenty three calling for a near term pullback in the first quarter that didn't end up happening. I do think we'll be watching our sentiment indicator very closely. It's been the best star in the sky to navigate the equity market this year, but it's also round tripped a couple of times. It started out giving you a screaming by signal because of deep pessimism. Return to that post. SBB gave a sales signal in August and then gave a by signal again in November. So I think we're going to have to just be very tactical in that. You know, I have been telling people November is very consistently a strong month, but December is a little bit more hit or miss. So we'll see if we end up getting the Santa or Grinch in December. But I do think the path for equities is higher next year, and if we do have a bit of a short term pullback either in December to start the year, I expect it to be temporary. Llurie Goldman Sachs had a note thanks zero Edge for this on sales girls looking out two years twenty three, twenty four to twenty five and the difference between them magnificent seven with eleven percent sales grows versus the SPX four ninety three of three percent sales growth. Why would anybody sell the magnificent seven right now? I think it's a great question, Tom. When we look at our indicators and we look at the megacap growth trade broadly, it looks crowded. If you look at the weekly CFTC data on Nasdaq one hundred futures positioning, we're basically close to peak valuation and growth relative to value. If you look at the rustle one thousand on a weighted PE multiple, which is going to be very heavily influenced by that magnificent seven. And if you look at earning's momentum, we're still seeing better earnings revision trends and growth and value, but value is starting to catch up a little bit, so we are seeing that leadership on the earning side fade a little bit. All of that tells me that there should be a pause in growth leadership at some point. But I think one of the reasons people can't really permanently quit these growth stocks is kind of hitting on exactly what you said, the idea that there will be superior growth there over the intermediate term. And if you look at GDP forecasts for next year one percent in real terms anticipated by the street one point eighty percent in twenty twenty five. When we're in a sub two percent GDP environment, growth stocks usually do outperform because economic growth is perceived to be scarce. So I do think there is a real tension. You know, we still like the tech sector even though we have these shorter term tactical concerns on growth, had those tactical concerns on growth frankly for a while, and they've yet to really materialize in a big way. And I do feel like you may need to see a real ratcheting up of GDP expectations before you can really see growth loose some of that leadership dominance. When you talk about sentiment and how really that's been the loadstone for you, it's figuring out where is investor sentiment em betting against it? Am I correct? Basically? You know, one of the things I've learned over my career, Lisa, is that when everybody is really really pessimistic, that's usually a fantastic time to buy. If you look at when the AAII net bullishness indicator is, you know, sort o

Jeff Gennette, Macy's CEO says department stores are still relevant and his company is ready for the holiday shopping season. Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Sr. Research Analyst says retailers are starting to embrace AI. Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan, University of Michigan Professor of Public Policy & Economics discusses the surprise drop in prices of Thanksgiving dinner. Brian Kelly, The Points Guy Founder says use your credit card points before they lose value. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jack Caffrey, JP Morgan Asset Management Equity Portfolio Manager, says the holiday rally in the equity market is in full force. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, discusses the latest in the Israel-Hamas war and its impact on domestic politics. Helane Becker, TD Cowen Senior Research Analyst, walks through what's expected to be the busiest holiday travel season in years amid uncertainty in the airline industry. Earl Davis, BMO Global Asset Management Head of Fixed Income & Money Markets, doesn't expect the Fed to cut rates until after the US presidential election. Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Sr. Technology Analyst, recaps a chaotic week for OpenAI founder Sam Altman and Nvidia's lukewarm earnings report.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak delivers today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Download and subscribe for the news you need, delivered by 6 AM Eastern each morning. Listen on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you get your podcasts. Apple: http://bit.ly/3DWYoAN Spotify: http://bit.ly/3jGRYiB Anywhere: http://bit.ly/3J1bct9See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rishi Jaluria, RBC Capital Markets Managing Director, says Microsoft has leapt ahead of its competitors in the monetization of AI. Victoria Fernandez, Crossmark Global Investments Chief Market Strategist, says diversification is key for portfolios and expects more volatility to come. Michael Collins, PGIM Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager & Multi-Sector Fixed Income Strategies, says there's a chance inflation could get stuck over 2%. Robert Hormats, Tiedmann Advisors Managing Director & Former Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, discusses the potential deal between Israel & Hamas to release hostages in Gaza and previews his upcoming trip to Beijing in the wake of the Biden-Xi meeting.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Sr. Technology Analyst, breaks down the shifting AI landscape amid Sam Altman's move to Microsoft. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi US Chief Economist, says there is no urgency for the Fed to cut rates. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy Founder, discusses troubling new poll numbers for President Biden. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says 2024 could see major changes in the foreign exchange market. Mike Froman, Council on Foreign Relations President, says that bipartisan consensus on foreign policy and national security still remains despite the US never being more politically polarized.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mohamed El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, guests hosts the show and says the 'enormous volatility' in the bond market needs to be corrected in order to restore the Fed's credibility. Stephanie Kelton, Stony Brook University Professor of Public Policy & Economics, says the Fed has effectively put fiscal policy on autopilot. Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, describes the Fed's policy trajectory as headed for a "rocky landing." Stephen Schork, The Schork Group Principal, says traders have become skeptical about supply levels of oil and jet fuel heading into a major travel season. Jeannette Lowe, Strategas Managing Director of Policy Research, says the meeting between President Biden and Xi Jinping won't change the dynamic between the two countries in a major way. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Why don't we move on to what doctor Olrium cares Mohammed, We've got to sit on crude, the idea that crude has essentially collapsed into a bear market, down more than twenty percent from the September highs. We spent this week talking about soft lending, hopes and dreams. Do we have to start thinking about an economic downturn in the not too distant future, well some of them. Some people are talking about this. I mean to see oil prices down more than twenty percent from the highs at the time that there's a conflict going on in the Middle East. It's quite quite and that's feeding into the soft landing. And we're going to talk a lot about this. But the market has now fully embraced not just that the fat has finished this hiking cycle, which I think is correct, but that we're going to see deeper and deeper cuts next year without a recession, and that's the critical assumption that's now built in across markets. I want to get the money question out of the way right away. As CEO of a major two million employee company in America called Walmart, yesterday brought up a d word deflation seared into the fabric of Cambridge, Oxford in the London School of Economics as a study a British deflation of the thirties and forties. America has never faced that have they They haven't, and we've had Japan recently. And the problem with deflation is it discourages people from buying today. However, I want to stress the US is deflation in certain products, food being the primary example, and that's why Walmart we decited it. We don't have general deflation, and I doubt we're going to have general deflation. I mean, I look at the an inflation question and it is a vector of disinflation in place. Clearly we see that. What is your optimism of getting back to John Williams two point zero percent? Richard claired is two point x percent. I think Richard is more likely to be right than John. I think we're going to get stuck in the high twos, and the FED is going to have to make a very difficult decision. Does it live with inflation higher than target because the target itself is too low, or alternatively, does it acknowledge that two percent is the right target and then crushes the economy. I think that's the choice the FED is going to have to make. What's your best guess right now? I think it's going to go for the format. I think the FED will understand that pressing two percent inflation in a world where there's insufficient structural supply is not the right thing to do. So where do you think it leaves this bond market? Let's go through this course right now. We've got a two year at the moment at about four eighty, a ten year at about four forty. Think about where we've been in the last month of Summerhammet had a two year pushing five twenty five high set of cycle, ten year through five percent high set of cycle. How are you thinking about what we come back down to, bearing in mind what we're pricing for right cuts next year. I think we've come down too far to tell your truth. I understand why some people think that we're going further, but if you look at the inflation dynamics, that's harder to get unless we go into recession. If we go into a recession, then the stock market is mispriced, so you can't have both at the same time. Has something changed? I think this is what it goes back to. Has something changed post pandemic? That means we don't go back to the pre pandemic world. That debate, I think is still on going. Mohammed, where'd you come down on it? I think the pre pandemic world was exceptional. It was a world of qui. It was a world of insufficient aggregate demand. And when you have insu

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief US Economist, says the nearly two-year high in US continuing jobless claims represents a needed softening in the labor market. Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President & Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says there needs to be significant changes to the treasury market in order to restore strength. Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Senior Retail Analyst, says Walmart, Target and Burberry's earnings indicate pressure on the entire retail sector. Michael Hirson, 22V Head of China Research, analyzes President Biden's meeting with Xi Jinping and its implications for both countries. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Joining us now, we're thrilled to every usually for big events, So today's a big event. It's always a big event. When Ellen Zenner joins his chief US economist, Morgan Stanley Ellen on claims, I go to the four week moving average. How do you interpret claims with this two hundred thirty one thousand statistic? And can you say there's finally a vector in place of higher claims more pain. So I hope that there's a higher vector in place. I disagree that higher claims will be more pain. We're coming off of extraordinarily low levels. As you said, we look at the four week moving average to smooth through volatility, and it has been lifting, but it is still very low. And so what does that tell me? Something that Mike and Lisa alluded to as well, normalization slowing in normalization, good god man, that's what we've been needing, and I don't see this accelerating at an extreme pace. I've been on the road the last few days in several states meeting with corporate clients. They are finally seeing some relief in terms of how tight the labor market has been in terms of the availability of the kinds of employees that they need. We're seeing not just claims rising a bit here, but I focus on continuing claims. People that have been losing their jobs are staying unemployed for a bit longer, and that's been rising since October, so it's getting more difficult to just get re employed right away. This is the kind of softness in the labor market that we have needed, and of course it takes pressure off the FED to raise rates again. Right going on extended hold, what is the distance between normalization and an outright downturn? So well, the difference is jobs stay positive, So normalization is you've got more supply coming back into the labor market, so you see participation rates rising, which we have. That is what puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate. And we've been seeing that, and if people are having taken longer to be able to get re employed, then that should produce further upward pressure on the unemployment rate. But that just takes pressure off the labor market, pressure off of businesses, off of margins. You see wages grow more slowly, and you'll see confidence build among FED policy makers that they have done enough here. I don't think we're anywhere near getting to negative job gains. I think negative jobs would mean that companies have stopped hiring. What I hear is that they're doing selective hiring, that they stop hiring, and that they start firing, and I mean firing up broadly. And that's just not what we're seeing. But I'm ever watchful, especially reading earnings transcripts, to see if that's something that's around the around the corner. I'm glad you mentioned earnings because we were talking about Walmart, and I understand their idiosyncrasies here, but they talked about potentially seeing outright deflation over the next year with consumers clearly pushing back. You do see margin pressure, you do see a market deterioration and consumer appetite over the past ninety days. How concerning is that to you about the nonlinearity of where things could be. So, Lisa, we put out a consumer survey that goes out into the field every two weeks, and one of the biggest areas of trade down that households have been doing is within stores themselves, say, going from a high priced branded good to the generic good within the store. And that means that those retailers are going to see some deflation. And we've been hearing from businesses that input costs are falling, but prices that they're charged or falling faster. And that's important because we all started to think we the economics community at large, not myself though an exception, started to think that households just have unlimited price tolerance, and that is not the case. Finances start to slow, we run through th

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Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute North America Chief Economist, says October's slight drop in US retail sales doesn't take away from overall robust consumer spending. Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist, details how the Fed will look to navigate a potential successful soft landing. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital Chief Investment Strategist, says corporations could look to cut costs in 2024 if the Fed doesn't cut rates. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Economic Policy Director, discusses an increasingly dysfunctional environment on Capitol Hill despite the passage of a stopgap funding bill. Jennifer Bartashus, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, breaks down Target's better-than-expected 3Q earnings. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is a joy what happens with young economists as you read their research and you go, oh, they're quite competent. Not long ago and far away, but a few years ago. That was Michelle Meyer absolutely owning the parsing of the American consumer. She worked for a small bank in Manhattan and is now Chief Economists North America from MasterCard Economics. You own the analysis I put you and Allen Zetner together. You own the analysis of the American consumer. Have we stopped spending? We clearly have not stop spending. Far from it, and think about the data this morning. It was an incredible combination of continued strength and retail spend, of rebound in Empire State manufacturing, which shows that there's still a need for more goods production, which is because consumers are still spending, and on top of that, you're getting some relief on the pricing side. So it's a really nice combination. I hate asking this question, and I'm stunned. It's my first time I've asked it. On November fifteenth, what's back to what's a holiday season look like? What's Black Friday? And then Black Monday and this and that? What does this retail madness did January look like? Well, it is a longer holiday season. We've learned that over the last few years, and it's a heavily promotional based holiday season, and part of that is because of the fact that there's so much demand out there to buy online. I mean, think about the numbers we just saw this morning. Our spending post numbers saw just over eight percent year of your growth in e commerce sales. So you know, you're seeing a consumer that is certainly exploring many different channels of spending, including online, and that creates a lot more opportunities for them to get products, and it also creates a lot more need for retailers to compete with these big moments in time where they offer promotions, and I think that's what's going to be indicative. So we'll learn a lot from the Black Friday period, and it's approaching very quickly. How sustainable is this combination of both robust retail sales and disinflation or even outright goods deflation. So I think you have to consider the different categories. I mean, when you looked at CPI yesterday, you certainly saw some categories like these big durable goods like your refrigerators back seeing some price declines. But for many other things, like many services, for example, you are still seeing some price increases. So part of the drop in prices for some of these goods simply reflects the fact that prices increased too much out of a pandemic because of supply chain issues, because of higher costs, and now it's reverting a bit more to something more normal, right, So that means in real terms you will see some support in terms of some of these items moving through. In nominal terms, you could see some move down in terms of overall spend. So it really depends on why inflation is moving, and that is a function of the type of product and how things evolved coming out of the pandemic. When you put it together, does this seem like a recipe for this goldilocks soft landing, or does this seem to paint the picture of a federal reserve that needs to do more and of an economy that has way too much momentum to really achieve the disinflation that a lot of people are baking into market evaluations. I think the data is shaping up in a way that's really favorable at the moment because you continue to have economic growth. Look at the third quarter GDP numbers, that was fairly broad based economic activity, not just consumers but also businesses investing inventories getting much more manageable and in stock So you know, things have been evolving remarkably well in terms of the real economy, taking out some

Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo Chief Economist, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, break down October's US CPI report that shows a steady easing in inflation. Liz Suzuki, Bank of America Securities Analyst, says consumers are relying on excess savings amid the discomfort of higher rates. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief US Policy Strategist, expects Congress to pass a government funding bill and avert a shutdown. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript:I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Well, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Is the Fed Done? Is this basically what we're looking at right now? The all clear sign for the Federal Reserve to have to do more. Jay Brison, Chief Economist, it W Wells Fargo joining US. Now I ask that to you, Jay, does this sound the all clear for the FED? It does for right now, Lisa. I mean, you know, these numbers are going to bounce around on a month by month basis. You know, I wouldn't. Our view is that the FED probably is done. But I don't expect FED officials to be coming out just because of this one report saying oh it's all clear, everything's great out there. I mean, I think they're still going to continue to be biased to potentially tightening. We don't think that will happen, but you know, in the next few months, these numbers kind of reverse and they kind of pop up, and the economy expands at a stronger unexpected rate, you could potentially see them going But again, I think that's a that's a high bar at this point. This adds to signs that there is some sort of cool and this is the reason why so many people are talking about a soft landings. You haven't seen the real cracks you'd expect ahead of a massive recession. Jay, do you think that is an accurate categorization of exactly what we're seeing with prices not going up as much as people had expected. Yeah, I think that's right, you know. I mean, if we were still clipping along at a year over year rate on the core of a five percent, we'd be talking about the Fed hiking even more. And when you start to hike even more, that's when you have the problems. So, you know, so the potential for a soft landing is still there. I guess what I'm a little bit still watching and concerned about is that the real FED funds, right, you know, the nominal rate minus some sort of inflation rate continues to drift higher, and that's what matters for the real economy. And so I think the Fed is going to delay easing at this point, and so we may or may not have a downturn early next year, but I think the next few quarters because monetary policy is going to remain restrictive. I think you're looking at headwinds on xanomic growth. Is it mission accomplished? There's a comedy to that, a painful comedy for our geopolitics, our history, Doctor Bryson. What are we getting to a transitory point where this Federal Reserve can say mission accomplished? Well, again, Tom, I don't think they're going to come out and say that right at this point. But you know what I would say is the bar for further rate hikes is getting higher and higher at this point. Many of the members on the FOMC think they have done enough at this point, and you know, today's rally and the tenure notwithstanding, you know, we still have seen you know, relatively high long term rates and so there's a fair amount of headwinds on the economy right now. Again, they're not going to come out and say mission accomplished right now. They need to see a few more months of this before I think they feel confident in that this is certainly a good start in that journey. But I still think, you see, you need to see a few more months of point two's before they say accomplished. Lisa, the mission accomplished December twelfth a CPI report before a December thirteenth FED meeting, and or just to really echo what Jay was talking about that the bar is getting higher and higher for them to go again, evidently the bar is getting a bit lower for them to cut rates. FED dated swaps are now pricing in the first twenty five basis point cut for June versus July. Before we got this print, Jay, there is this issue of what we're going back to. Are we seeing a fast enough pace of disinflation to believe that two percent is very much in the horizon. You and your team have been excellent about the last mile of getting inflation down from three percent to two percent? How far along that process are we? So, you know, I don't have the numbers here in front of me, Lisa, but you know, I think if you look at the three month annualized change in the core, we're probably at three and a half percent right now.

Thomas Kennedy, JP Morgan Private Bank Chief Investment Strategist, expects a growth slowdown in the US amid a decline in excess savings. Christian Scherer, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer, says the company is in an undersupplied situation coming out of the pandemic with high numbers of aircraft orders. Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder, says the US is now closer to a recession than earlier this year. Toto Wolff, Mercedes AMG Petronas CEO, previews this weekend's first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix. Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group United States Managing Director, says that both political parties are aligned on avoiding a government shutdown. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on a Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. What we do here is we have smart guests like Will Kennedy, just joining us at Queen Victoria Street in London on oil and now joining us his compatriot in Irish crime. Thomas Kennedy joins his chief investment strategist at JP Morgan. One Kennedy to another, and you linked it when you sat down and you looked at Will Kennedy's world and says, when the price of oil moves, you see in chases, charge card juggernaut reaction, what do you observes oil comes down? Yeah, we saw change in the way the consumer was reacting to higher oil prices around August September area in our Chase credit card day. To remember, we're banking about twenty percent of America, and what we saw there was a nice plug nailed deck when gasoline prices rose. You actually saw a discretionary spending go down. Now, Tommy might be saying, well, of course you're going to see that. Right, prior to August and September, in the post COVID era, we did not see that relationship. It suggests the excess savings in America might actually be depleting after how many quarters of negotiating on it, right, and then when we really dig into the accounts of these folks, and we do it in anymous anonymous fashion, about half of America looks like they're out of excess. If you're missing words up, it's okay. You're sitting on the side of the table where we do that routinely. You know, I'm looking Time Kennedy at the polarity between Morgan Stanley and Golden Sachs today. You need the leadership or Bruce chast and Michael Faroli to give you an economic backdrop. What's your economic backdrop that forms your outlook call this year? Yeah, we're expecting a growth slow down pretty much like the less rest of Wall Street at this point, and it is relatively simple and intuitive. You have the cost of capital above expected revenue in this economy, and if you think about America as one big business, it's very odd to see the cost of capital to be above expected GDP. It should force investors to say, maybe I'll just save instead of borrow money and invest in my business. We've seen this four or five times in the last forty years, just about every time you see a growth slowdown, tom So we should expect that to happen. The question becomes what's the scenarios where it doesn't happen? And in those scenarios you have one where either the consumer is much more resilient and they have access to borrowing, and you're going to see growth come higher or something breaks in the meantime. Those are pretty dynamic and polarizing outcomes in the future. Everything you set up until then, though said, by the ten year go along the curve. Look in some of this yield. Is that right? Yeah? I think it has to be. John. You have at this point a municipal bond that is giving you equity like yields, and for the first time in twenty years, it is actually competing with the earning yield on the s and P five hundred. For my clients that are gathering wealth for generations, I can show them something that has near zero default risk and you can get equity like yields. Is their risk to that, of course there is, But that's a dynamic that they haven't seen in two decades. And now I can start to reposition some of their portfolio and they say, Thomas, I'm nervous. I'm seeing yields all over the place. Are they reluctant to buy even at these rates? Even after you tell that story, it's a reluctant still to buy it. In our data for the last twelve months, this has been the trade that people have been excited about and can get invested in. That doesn't mean it's not without angst. When we saw a five year tax free yields show up two weeks ago, that dynamic changed five percent tax free for people in New York City, where we're sitting. Guys got to buy a taxable bond above ten percent to get an equal return, So the behavioral experience for them did

At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk. In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.