"This Time Is Different" – Yet Again

Ken Rogoff does not trade in headlines or market timing. He trades in history. As Professor of Economics at Harvard and co-author of This Time Is Different, Rogoff has spent decades studying what happens when societies convince themselves old rules no longer apply. His latest book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, extends that lens to today's economy – and to the quiet assumptions underpinning U.S. financial dominance. In our conversation, Rogoff unpacked why the dollar's "exorbitant privilege" still matters, why it is slowly eroding, and why the real risks facing the U.S. economy are not where most people are looking. This was not a discussion about panic. It was a discussion about probability. Among the questions Rogoff addresses:

1. Why does dollar dominance lower borrowing costs for U.S. households and businesses – and what happens if that advantage fades?
2. Why is the combination of high debt and higher interest rates historically dangerous, even for advanced economies?
3. Why central bank independence matters more than most people realize – and why it is under pressure from both sides of the political spectrum.
4. Why commercial real estate stress is serious but not systemic – and what risks matter more.
5. Why AI could extend U.S. economic strength or trigger a sharp reversal – and why today's low volatility is misleading.

Rogoff's core message is unsettling precisely because it is familiar. The United States has navigated debt, inflation, and institutional stress before. It did not escape unscathed. It adapted under pressure. The question is not whether adjustment comes. It is how – and under what conditions. If you care about macro risk, capital markets, or the long-term assumptions embedded in real estate and investment decisions, this conversation is worth your time. Tune in to hear it in full. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get:

• Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.
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• Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before.

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