Episode 654
Gold took us up … and Gold will take us down
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown · JustOneLap.com
October 28, 202518m 9s
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Show Notes
🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025
🎙️ "Gold took us up … and gold will take us down."
🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride- Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it's leading it back down.
- Year-to-date returns:
- Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %!
- Excluding dividends!
- Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely.
- The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market's ~20 %.
- Translation: half this year's gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it.
- Simon spots a "kangaroo-tail" reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉.
- Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn't over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰.
- For those who "missed" gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.
Top40 Monthly chart 2025
💡 Optasia IPO Extended- Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime).
- Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼.
- Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊.
- Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.
- Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %.
- HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 ("fair").
- Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️.
- Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins.
- Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.
- Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng.
- No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus.
- Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba).
- Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️.
- Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.
- Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow.
- Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help.
- Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100.
- Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ).
- Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.
- Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉.
- Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper).
- Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped.
- Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.
- Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs.
- Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term).
- US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them.
- Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally.
- Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he'll lose ⚖️.
- Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters.
- Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓
- Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲.
- Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour.
- If you haven't been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March).
- Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.
"Gold gave us the party — and now it's calling last rounds." Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don't lose the big picture.
Simon Brown 🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft 💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.