Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Ray and Jim welcome back one of their most popular guests, retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, to discuss his recent assertion that Beijing’s malign influence operations–which extend from hacking computer networks to undermining faith in institutions to altering the media landscape–have reached the point of constituting a ‘silent invasion’ of the U.S. homeland. Mike discusses his documented concerns about the extraordinary case of Elon Musk, America’s most important industrialist whose core businesses also have deep dependencies on Beijing’s largesse, and who has also now become a major political figure. Mike answers questions about why he has raised alarms about Musk as being “compromised and co-opted” by America’s most powerful adversary. Mike argues that America needs leaders who can lead a national conversation and “connect the dots” for the public so that Americans can understand the pervasive nature of the threat.

Ray and Jim welcome Colonel Rich Butler and Dr. Sheena Greitens to help us understand the readiness of China’s military for combat operations, and what that means for global security. They explain the contingencies the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing for, from a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan to a South China Sea confrontation, and what lessons the PLA has learned from Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens also discuss how China uses the PLA and non-traditional forces like the People’s Armed Police as coercive tools against its neighbors. They also weigh the sheer weight of China’s security forces against its blind spots—political control, corruption and inexperience in combat operations. They also consider China’s ongoing political and military corruption purges—and their impact on combat readiness.They explain how China prioritizes the conquest of Taiwan for achieving its “national rejuvenation”, and what role coercion plays in achieving those goals, even while planning for the potential of a protracted conflict against the U.S. and implementing non-traditional security programs across the Indo-Pacific region.Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens unpack the problems the PLA faces in a cross-strait invasion scenario, and what problems a military blockade of the island might present. They talk through the military and economic challenges Taiwan faces, both in terms of food and energy security.

Ray and Jim welcome Colonel Rich Butler and Dr. Sheena Greitens to help us understand the readiness of China’s military for combat operations, and what that means for global security. They explain the contingencies the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing for, from a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan to a South China Sea confrontation, and what lessons the PLA has learned from Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens also discuss how China uses the PLA and non-traditional forces like the People’s Armed Police as coercive tools against its neighbors. They also weigh the sheer weight of China’s security forces against its blind spots—political control, corruption and inexperience in combat operations. They also consider China’s ongoing political and military corruption purges—and their impact on combat readiness.They explain how China prioritizes the conquest of Taiwan for achieving its “national rejuvenation”, and what role coercion plays in achieving those goals, even while planning for the potential of a protracted conflict against the U.S. and implementing non-traditional security programs across the Indo-Pacific region.Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens unpack the problems the PLA faces in a cross-strait invasion scenario, and what problems a military blockade of the island might present. They talk through the military and economic challenges Taiwan faces, both in terms of food and energy security.

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Randy Schriver joins Jim and Ray to discuss how the security policies pursued by Donald Trump’s second administration are likely to affect the U.S., its allies and the broader region.Randy explains that while the first Trump administration may have featured certain splashy events and surprising rhetoric, real progress on policy was more evolutionary than revolutionary. For example, America’s Indo-Pacific alliances were actually strengthened despite confrontations over trade and defense burden-sharing.He further discusses growing influence of economic nationalism on U.S. policy, and how the Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) trilateral initiative presents both challenges and opportunities for the struggling American shipbuilding industry. The recently announced U.S.-Japan-South Korea and U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilaterals are also key regional pillars to build upon.Randy touts the need to address the U.S. defense procurement process and industrial base to meet the challenge of a rapidly growing and increasingly aggressive People’s Republic of China.Finally, Randy announces some exciting changes upcoming for the Project 2049 Institute, for which he is the Chairman of the Board.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel joins Jim and Ray for 2025's inaugural episode, in which he discusses why the alliance between the U.S. and Japan is critical to the security of both nations and of a vital but volatile region. In his characteristically forthright style, he explains how the Japan alliance strengthens America's strategic position, especially as it has been increasing its investments in its own defense. Multilateral cooperation among allies--an alliance "latticework--is, he says, an asymmetric advantage for the U.S. to offset an increasingly aggressive but still largely isolated China.Turning to economic issues, the ambassador asserts that trade imbalances don't tell the whole story, and that Japan is a major investor in the U.S. economy. Moreover, he makes the case that deterring China can't be seen solely in military terms but must consider economic statecraft as a key element of strategic power.Ambassador Emanuel talks about the evolution and impact of 2024's two major trilateral summits--one between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and the other between the U.S., Japan and the Philippines. He explains that Japan has had an important influence on building regional resilience against coercion and aggression through its defense and economic cooperation programs.Finally, he explains how he used social media to influence the conversation in East Asia, supporting Japan while calling out China for its malign actions and misleading messages.

In this special year-end edition of the podcast, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso reflect on most significant developments in the Indo-Pacific region throughout 2024 including the economic challenges faced by China amidst the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping, and how concern over its increasing military power and aggression is strengthening the U.S. network of alliances. They also discuss the prospects for a grand U.S.-China deal in the upcoming Trump administration.They talk about the most surprising developments of 2024, including the recent political upheaval in South Korea and the dramatic confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.They then review some of their favorite, most-viewed/most-heard, and most underrated episodes of the 2024, and give their Indo-Pacific "Person of the Year" nominees: Jim picked China's President Xi Jinping, while Ray chose the recently impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and Philippine President Ferdinand "BongBong" Marcos, Jr.They discuss surprises that may lie in wait for 2025, and what impact emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons will have on the Indo-Pacific order.Finally, they talk about what they’ve learned and most enjoyed in their first 9 months of podcasting.E-mail us at [email protected] with your questions and comments!We are pleased to announce the support of our new sponsor, BowerGroupAsia (BGA), a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific. BGA applies unmatched expertise and experience to help clients navigate the world’s most complex and dynamic markets.

Ray and Jim welcome Isaac Stone Fish to discuss why he believes companies that want to do business with China are being compelled to make hard choices due to the increasingly fraught relationship with the U.S. and the West.Isaac explains how the ongoing economic decoupling with China has been driven in large part by Beijing’s own policies, and that this process has been accelerated since the COVID-19 outbreak. He asserts that U.S. political and business elites, in their enthusiasm for what China might have been, have instead strengthened its authoritarian model to the detriment of the West.Isaac urges companies to understand the risks inherent in their exposure to China’s market, and explains some of the economic challenges Beijing faces moving forward. He also warns that conflict is a real possibility that must be factored in.

Jim and Ray welcome McKinsey & Company’s Global Director of Geopolitics Ziad Haider to discuss how businesses are navigating the evolving risks and opportunities of today’s Indo-Pacific business environment. Ziad asserts that the region is the engine of the global economy which is both economically vibrant but also highly volatile.Ziad discusses the role of India and Southeast Asia as rising global economic power, and of course, the increasingly complex challenge of operating in China amidst its growing regulatory and geopolitical hazards. He emphasizes the need for companies to be prepared to adapt as circumstances can change quickly, as evidenced by recent supply chains disruptions and black-swan events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.y1JCFurOEAh1qKEfwIO3

Jim and Ray welcome BowerGroupAsia’s Managing Director for Indonesia Doug Ramage to look at the country’s economic and geopolitical position as it moves on from a decade under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to new President Prabowo Subianto. They consider Indonesia’s position as a rising power with a $1 trillion economy, a G20 membership and leadership position within the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) nations.Doug credits the Jokowi presidency for championing a stable political and investment climate, and explains why he believes that Prabowo is seeking continuity while also promoting social development. He explains that Prabowo will face a rising imperative to balance Jakarta’s relationships with Washington DC and Beijing in the face of rising great-power competition. He will seek to maintain Indonesia’s strong regional position and continue to promote ASEAN-centrality, while also continuing to promote its role as a leader in the Muslim world.Doug unpacks the strains created by the twin impulses toward economic growth and trade protectionism, and how these may impact the former defense minister’s military modernization plans and the slow-moving effort to relocate the capital city.

Jim and Ray welcome Suzanne Vares-Lum, retired U.S. Army Major General, outgoing President of the East-West Center and Director-designate of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. Together they explore the geopolitical significance of the geographically vast but sparsely populated Pacific Islands region.They discuss how these small island nations have found themselves in the midst of the great-power competition between the U.S. and China, while many have also become unlikely players in the cross-strait tensions between Taiwan and China. At the same time, the concerns that preoccupy these nations at international gatherings such as the Pacific Islands Forum include illegal fishing and climate change.Suzy explains how the U.S. has been renewing its commitment to many of these countries through education and leadership programs, as well as opening new embassies and funding infrastructure projects. To close, Ray tells the story of when he dispatched a special forces officer to rescue a stuffed animal.

In this "emergency" episode, Ray and Jim welcome retired South Korean Lieutenant General Chun In-Bum back to help explain the extraordinary events of December 3rd–President Yoon Suk Yul’s shocking declaration of martial law, its unanimous rejection by the parliament, and its subsequent repeal by Yoon. General Chun talks about the ethical and legal dilemma faced by South Korean military personnel, crediting their professionalism and restraint for averting violence. He also discusses South Korea’s history with martial law and how the ever-present threat of North Korean aggression colors that landscape.The conversation then turns to what is likely to happen next to President Yoon and his administration, and how a potential presidential succession might unfold should he be impeached or resign from office.General Chun laments the impact Yoon’s actions and their aftermath is likely to have on South Korea’s geopolitical situation, with special emphasis on how it will affect recent positive trends with Japan relations during Yoon’s tenure.To close, Jim and Ray compare this experience with others they’ve encountered during their long diplomatic and military careers, and also discuss how authoritarian regimes are likely to exploit the chaos in Seoul.

Ray and Jim welcome Victor Chin, the official representative of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, to discuss Taiwan’s political landscape. They discuss how the KMT evolved from the flight with Chiang Kai-shek to Taiwan at end of the Chinese Civil War; through decades of unchallenged KMT rule over the island; its transition to a multiparty democracy; through to today as its primary opposition party to the ascendant Democratic People’s Party (DPP).They turn to Taiwan’s strategic geographic location, the building military threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the need for Taiwan to prepare its entire society for hostilities, and the crucial role the U.S. plays in ensuring its security.Victor explains why the KMT emphasizes its support for the “1992 Consensus” regarding “One China” and its ambiguous interpretation. He explains the difference in how the KMT looks at cross-strait relations, emphasizing dialogue over confrontation to manage tensions until democracy can be the force that unifies China.This conservative approach has earned the KMT the reputation of being Beijing’s preferred party, but Victor insists it remains Taiwan’s original and staunch bastion against communism.To close, Jim’s “There I was” story leads him and Ray into a discussion about the promises of authoritarianism versus democracy, which Churchill described as “the worst form of government except for everything else that’s been tried.”

Ray and Jim welcome AEI senior fellow Zack Cooper to the podcast to discuss China's increasingly aggressive behavior, and what the U.S. and its allies need to do in response. They focus on the question of how deterrence strategies need to evolve and adapt to the threats, whether they be nuclear, conventional military, or across the spectrum of malign gray-zone activities. They discuss the specific need to deter a military move against Taiwan.The discussion turns to the topic of extended nuclear deterrence, and whether a perceived U.S. inability or unwillingness to back up its security guarantees might lead its allies in the region to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs and lead to a breakdown of the non-proliferation regime.Zack also covers the recent U.S. policy of “integrated deterrence” and whether it can be effective, as well as recent discussion about an “Asian NATO” and whether it has a future.

Ray and Jim explore the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration for the Philippines with prominent Filipino columnist, podcaster and author of the 2020 book, The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery. Richard Heydarian discusses the historical context of US-Philippines relations, the fluidity of ASEAN perspectives on China, and the importance of strategic autonomy for Southeast Asian nations.The dialogue compares the policies of U.S. administrations through recent decades, emphasizing the need for clarity and continuity in interpreting the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and other security cooperation arrangements.The discussion drills down on the potential impact of Trump-imposed tariffs on Philippine economic interests, before turning to the broader geopolitical and economic landscape across Southeast Asia.Richard also gives his opinions on the effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the potential for minilateralism to overcome its limitations.The hosts ask Richard to give advice about how Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. can maximize his impact with President Trump, as well as his advice on what makes a successful podcast.Finally, Ray tells Jim about his recent experience at the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, where he created a buzz by describing China’s activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone as akin to a “maritime occupation” by a “hostile imperial power”.

Ray and Jim talk to author and geopolitical analyst James Crabtree about India’s policy of strategic ambiguity, its evolving but complicated relationship to the other “Quad” countries (the U.S., Australia and Japan), and its enigmatic relations with Russia and China. They also review India's ongoing military modernization efforts, as well as the challenges of doing business in India with its complex web of protectionism, regulations and infrastructure issues.Crabtree unpacks the rhetoric of India’s “Act East” policy of prioritizing Southeast Asia, as opposed to its evident interest in developing relations with wealthier Western economies. He also explains the implications of its inclusion in the “BRICS” grouping with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, together with a growing number of emerging Global South partners.

Jim and Ray welcome former Ambassador to Singapore Frank Lavin--now the Founder and CEO of Export Now, a firm that helps companies do business in China. Frank explains why he believes economic decoupling from China is unwise, and why he believes that China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization was not a mistake but instead forced Beijing to make important reforms that benefited U.S. businesses.Our guest emphasizes the importance of balancing geopolitical considerations with business decisions, and advocates for a positive U.S. trade policy of collaboration with like-minded nations rather than over-focusing on adversarial relationships with countries like China.The discussion also rolls around to the evolution of U.S. trade policy, the potential implications of increased tariffs under Donald Trump, and the challenges posed by China's rise. It explores the history of trade agreements, the current political climate surrounding free trade, and the impact of China's economic strategies on global markets.Frank emphasizes the importance of openness and collaboration in trade, while also addressing the need for defensive measures against unfair practices. He concludes with a call for proactive leadership in U.S. trade relations and the potential for future agreements.

Ray and Jim welcome Chinese espionage expert Matt Brazil to discuss the unprecedented scale of Chinese intelligence operations, emphasizing the role of the Ministry of State Security (MSS). He highlights the implications of China's sophisticated program of both domestic and transnational spying and repression of dissent; the involvement of some Chinese academics and students in espionage activities; and the growing threat of cyber hacking as a tool for state-sponsored intelligence.Matt also explains how the United Front Work Department conducts foreign influence operations, and offers insights into how organizations can mitigate risks when hiring individuals from China.The conversation concludes with a discussion on why China's wide-ranging program targets local government officials and the broader implications of these actions.Ray and Jim then discuss how China's whole-of-civilization approach to espionage can increase the scrutiny--including discrimination, profiling and racism--that ordinary ethnic Chinese academics, students and businesspeople face in western countries.Finally, Ray relates an amusing occasion on which he himself was called a "cyber hacker" while serving in southeast Asia.

Ray and Jim welcome Stanford University fellow and author Oriana Skylar Mastro to discuss her recent book, "Upstart: How China Became a Great Power". Oriana emphasizes that outsiders often misunderstand the sources of China's strength. She says that while Beijing sometimes emulates Western strategies, it also frequently exploits their weaknesses--for example, engaging strongly with certain developing countries that the U.S. largely ignores.She further asserts that China engages in entrepreneurial new strategies, such as training developing countries' police forces or building a vast maritime militia force. Many of these approaches are made possible by China's authoritarian political system in ways that democracies cannot easily emulate and probably shouldn't try, though they need to find other ways to contest them using their own strengths.Oriana examines the diplomatic and military options regarding China's growing threat to Taiwan and the South China Sea, emphasizing the need for less bluster but more strength--Theodore Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" approach. Regarding the South China Sea, she discusses her recent New York Times article in which she advocated for "calling China's bluff".Finally, in this episode's edition of "There I was...", Jim describes working with a U.S. company involved in exploring Indonesia's North Natuna Sea, where there is a dispute with China's vast maritime claims. He observes how a country's own perception of its national interests is often very different from what outsiders believe it should be.

Jim and Ray welcome Charlie Edel, Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about the significance of AUKUS--a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK and the US--focusing on its implications for defense and technology collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region. Their discussion covers the origins of AUKUS, its strategic importance, the controversies around "Pillar One" (nuclear submarine production), and the challenges and potential for expanding partnerships beyond the three countries in "Pillar Two" (advanced technology cooperation). The conversation then moves on to the need for building enhanced deterrence capabilities to meet the growing China threat, and the evolving nature of defense technology collaboration.

Ray and Jim welcome retired Lieutenant General Chun In-bum of the South Korean Army to discuss North Korea's increasing role in supplying arms to the Russian war machine. General Chun highlights the long history of North Korea’s illicit arms industry, and how its ambitions pose not just regional but global challenges. General Chun emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of North Korea's changing military ambitions in the context of its ever-shifting relationships with China and Russia. He emphasizes that U.S. policy toward North Korea has often been flawed by misguided hopes that the Hermit Kingdom might respond positively to offers of engagement or inducements.The discussion turns to the challenge that North Korea’s nuclear program poses to a strained global non-proliferation regime, and the real potential for South Korea and other countries under threat to break out and pursue their own nuclear capabilities if their faith in U.S. extended deterrence fails.General Chun contemplates the question of an “Asian NATO”, appreciates the long history of American service in South Korea, and makes an impassioned plea to Americans to hold to their country’s historic ideals.In our “There I was…” segment, Ray tells an amazing-but-true story of how his Air Force unit once encountered the toughness of South Korean Special Forces.

Union College Professor Mark Dallas--also a senior advisor to the U.S. Department of Commerce--joins Jim and Ray to delve into how the recently accelerating movement of global supply chains away from China is affecting consumers, employment and national security, both in the U.S. and around the world. Professor Dallas explains the importance and complexity of global supply chains, and explores how COVID-19 brought their vulnerabilities into the public awareness. He unpacks how 'friend-shoring' has emerged as a western strategy to reduce supply-chain reliance on potential adversaries by sourcing goods and labor through more friendly countries.One reason China's manufacturing capabilities became so dominant in global supply chains was its ability to geographically cluster manufacturing sites closely together for maximum efficiency.Professor Dallas explains that while authoritarian policies, geopolitical shocks and cybersecurity threats pose serious challenges to global supply chain integrity, decoupling supply chains away from China is far more complicated than it sounds.

Michael Brosowski, founder of the Blue Dragon Children's Foundation in Hanoi, discusses how his organization combats human trafficking in Vietnam, though he asserts that trafficking is a global problem--a crime against humanity that affects everyone.Trafficking in Vietnam is a constantly changing and evolving challenge, one that often targets disadvantaged youth seeking job and life opportunities. Blue Dragon has leveraged collaboration with the Vietnamese and other governments to intervene.Last decade one of the biggest problems Blue Dragon found was that women were being trafficked across the border into China, where decades of the "One-Child Policy" had left a severe gender imbalance. Blue Dragon has worked with both governments to stem the flow of brides across the border so that it is a more manageable problem today.Michael discusses how Blue Dragon often conducts dramatic, sometimes risky rescue operations to secure trafficked persons' freedom. These require careful planning and often involve rapid responses to calls for help, sometimes even across borders.Aftercare for survivors is a key part of the program. This is highly individualized, and may include psychological, financial, vocational and legal supports.

Ray & Jim interview the former U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster about his New York Times bestselling memoir, “At War With Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House”. Lieutenant General McMaster unpacks how he believes the Trump Administration executed a long-overdue shift in America’s strategy towards China, from a policy based on a false hope of integration into the U.S.-led international order to one that emphasized the need to engage in great power competition to prevent a revisionist China and Russia from overthrowing that order. McMaster explains how he tried to implement President Trump’s policy of "putting America first" and demanding reciprocal trade agreements and defense burden-sharing among America’s allies, even as he himself advocated with the president for maintaining strong alliances and a muscular forward military presence to deter conflict, and explains his assertion that the greatest provocation for aggressors is the "perception of American weakness".McMaster also pushes for the rebuilding of America’s defense industrial base in order to deter escalation in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere, especially in places like Taiwan, the Philippines and the South China Sea.

Jim and Ray talk to Dr. Euan Graham of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute about how Malaysia's positive relations with Beijing--despite ongoing tensions in the South China Sea--may be attributed to its deep economic ties with China. In particular, Malaysia's Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, has taken a friendly stance towards China and downplayed security concerns, even as China continues to press its maritime claims. They discuss Malaysia's approach to geopolitics as it is about to assume the rotating chair of ASEAN, with which Beijing has been slow-rolling South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations for decades--a circumstance that has grated on leaders in the Philippines who have sought stronger ASEAN support. For this reason, ASEAN's centrality in managing security issues is increasingly in question.Malaysian leaders see their approach as being pragmatic and flexible, while they see the Philippine approach as being unnecessarily confrontational. In "There I was...", Jim tells the story of his meeting with Anwar's daughter and the U.S.'s efforts to secure Anwar's release from jail two decades ago.

Jim & Ray talk to former U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong Hanscom Smith about the recent erosion of its autonomy and why he still believes in maintaining support for its people. Hanscom argues that despite its recent challenges, Hong Kong remains economically distinct from mainland China, though he acknowledges that the erosion of political autonomy has serious implications for Hong Kong's future. He asserts that international businesses still see value in maintaining a presence in Hong Kong, though the 2019 national security law has created uncertainty. He reflects back on his time there, which encompassed both the 2019 protests and the COVID-19 outbreak. Finally, in a special update Jim asks Hanscom to respond to recent US State Department warnings to businesses in Hong Kong and the passage through the US House of Representatives of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office Certification Act.

Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull joins Jim and Ray to give his pointed views on what he believes would be a high-risk second Donald Trump Administration on the Indo-Pacific against the relative continuity represented by Vice President Kamala Harris. Citing Trump's narcissism and erratic behavior, Turnbull asserts that the former president's return would unsettle U.S. alliance relationships across the region.Turning to how foreign leaders can prepare for a possible "Trump 2", Turnbull emphasizes the need to forge a direct relationship with him, as traditional methods of working through senior officials and advisors have limited influence on his decisions. He shares his own experience of dealing with Trump while he was prime minister, such as persuading him not to impose steel tariffs on Australia.Turnbull also details his objections to the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) submarine deal. He criticizes the decision to abandon Australia's partnership with France to build diesel-electric submarines and instead opt for nuclear-powered submarines with America and Great Britain. Turnbull argues that this decision undermines Australian sovereignty and poses unacceptable risks due to the potential that limited supplies of U.S. submarines may well result in their being unavailable to meet Australia's needs.He also discusses how Australia has dealt with China's influence and espionage operations, and specifically why his government was among the world's first to refuse to allow Huawei to build 5G networks in the country.

Ray and Jim discuss the recent tense and sometimes violent maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines with expert Greg Poling, author of "On Dangerous Ground: America's Century in the South China Sea". They consider what these developments mean for America's long-standing alliance commitment to the Philippines, which Greg asserts is finally being treated like a "real ally" on equivalent footing with more developed countries like Japan.Greg explores the origins of China's vast claims to the South China Sea--including the origins of the so-called "nine-dash line"--and then works through progression of its gray zone campaign from Scarborough Shoal to Second Thomas Shoal to its latest flashpoint at Sabina Shoal. The conversation turns to the impact of President Rodrigo Duterte's administration (2016-2022), which turned away from the U.S. alliance and leaned hard into its relationship with Beijing. They also discuss ASEAN's fragmentation over the South China Sea issue and what it means for a future Code of Conduct. To close, Ray tells the story of his experience in Vietnam when large protests broke out in 2014 over a Chinese oil rig operating in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Ray & Jim talk to Indonesian investment banker, entrepreneur, philanthropist, musician and podcaster Gita Wirjawan, who was also the country's former trade minister from 2011-14. They discuss the significance of Indonesia as the world's third largest democracy and the largest country in Southeast Asia, and its potential to grow its economy and internationalize its profile under incoming President Prabowo Subianto. They discuss Probowo's past allegations of human rights violations, and what implications this has on his future presidency. The conversation touches on topics such as Indonesia's view of its place in the region and in ASEAN; whether it should join the BRICS grouping; its tradition of non-alignment and its perceived security threats; the ongoing relocation of its capital city; and the need for more and different sources of energy and increased foreign direct investment for the country's development.Afterwards, Jim asks Ray to respond to online rumors that Ray is secretly a U.S. government agent.

Jim and Ray talk to Stanford University scholar Arzan Tarapore, who highlights India's emerging role as an anchor of U.S. security policy in the Indo-Pacific, despite the fact that India values its strategic autonomy. Arzan highlights the growing threat posed to India by China. He emphasizes India's need to prioritize investments in its Navy to counter this challenge, but also lays out concerns that these investments are starting to lag. The conversation also touches on India's relationship with Russia and the balancing act it faces in maintaining partnerships with opposing geopolitical camps.For our "There I was..." segment, Jim talks about his time among some of the world's top baseball players while he was posted in the Dominican Republic.

Rhombus Power founder and CEO Anshu Roy explains to Ray and Jim how artificial intelligence (AI) has been able to predict future global crises months before they occurred--including events such as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and this summer's regime-ending political instability in Bangladesh. By sifting through vast amounts of data, AI augments and complements human analysis by identifying patterns and anomalies that even the best analysts can easily miss, and then synthesizing them into projections about future events. Roy further explains how important it is to carefully and continuously curate data sources to prevent AI "hallucinations" as often occur on less sophisticated applications such as ChatGPT. Rhombus incorporates over 500 streams of publicly available and commercial data sources--from satellite service providers to media to socioeconomic data. In the hands of responsible actors AI has tremendous potential to prevent future conflict and other crises by reducing uncertainty and buying time for better decision-making. However, it can also be a terrifying tool in the hands of our adversaries.

Jim and Ray talk to Indonesian expert Aristyo Darmawan about how international law applies to the contest over the South China Sea. Aristyo explains how a rules-based international order ensures equal footing for all countries, and unpacks the history and significance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)--particularly from an Indonesian perspective. They also discuss the challenges and limitations of the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations, and whether they will ever result in an actual agreement or whether they are being used by Beijing as a delaying tactic while it consolidates control. Specifically, Aristyo answers the question of whether ASEAN is able to address the actual security concerns of a nation under direct threat such as the Philippines currently faces from China. The conversation concludes with a comparison of Canberra and Jakarta as capital cities, and then Jim tells the story of how his family weathered severe flooding during his tour in Indonesia.

Jim and Ray talk to former Australian Home Affairs Secretary Michael Pezzullo to discuss the critical challenge of defense procurement and weapons production in the face of the looming threat of conflict in the Indo-Pacific while wars rage in Europe and the Middle East. Pezzullo emphasizes the urgent need for the Australia, the U.S. and their allies to address their defense industrial base capacity to deter such a war--or win, if necessary. For Australia he proposes the creation of a statutory commission to streamline the procurement process and speed up production. He also highlights the importance of diplomatic efforts and the need for a collective security agreement in the Pacific region to counter China's strategic ascendancy.

Ray and Jim talk to Dr. Prashanth Parmeswaran, founder of the ASEAN Wonk newsletter, about "ASEAN centrality"--both its importance and the challenges it faces in managing issues in Southeast Asia. ASEAN, a diplomatic grouping of 10 countries in Southeast Asia, sees itself as the primary driving force in managing the region's relations between its members and with external powers, but there are clear limitations to its ability to resolve complex issues like the South China Sea dispute and hydroelectric dams along the Mekong River. The organization operates by consensus, which can be challenging with diverse member states and conflicting interests. The conversation also touches on the varied perceptions of China's role in the region among ASEAN's member states, and their views on minilateral institutions like the Quad and AUKUS.In this week's "There I was..." segment, Jim and Ray share their experiences with karaoke in Southeast Asian diplomatic circles.

Australian naval expert Jennifer Parker joins Ray and Jim to talk about the nuclear-powered submarines Australia will be acquiring as a result of the new trilateral Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) partnership. Jen discusses the advantages of nuclear-powered submarines over their diesel-powered cousins, and the reactions of Australia's neighbors to the abrupt AUKUS announcement. She also explains the distinction between nuclear power and nuclear weapons, and how confusion over these terms played a role in the controversy surrounding the deal. Jen unpacks the risks involved with such a significant leap in technology--such as its high cost and the country's lack of nuclear expertise and infrastructure--and how Australia is working to mitigate those risks. Jen takes on some of the AUKUS deal's critics, including those who believe Australia should prioritize a close-in defense of Australia. Finally, in our "There I was ..." segment, Ray tells the story about how he had to learn English all over again when he served in Australia.

Philippine Senator Risa Hontiveros has been leading an extraordinary investigation into Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGOs) and their malign social, economic and political implications. In this special, in-person interview with co-host Ray Powell, she explains the history and origins of POGOs, their rapid spread under former President Rodrigo Duterte, and their ties to Chinese criminal syndicates. She explains the remarkable case of Alice Guo, a small city mayor who was implicated following a federal raid on a local POGO. Her extraordinary wealth and evidently false documentation of her Philippine birth raise questions of whether she was planted into the political system, by whom and for what purpose. The conversation then turns to regional tensions with China--especially in the West Philippine Sea--and the importance of protecting Philippine national interests in the face of foreign interference. It also discusses the role of the United States and the need for international support in addressing these issues.

Retired Ambassador Bob Blackwill and Richard Fontaine talk to Jim and Ray about how America failed to complete its "pivot to Asia" during the past decade and across successive administrations. The authors of the recent bestseller, 'The Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power', argue that America's much-celebrated geostrategic rebalance has never fully materialized, resulting in a weaker US position in the face of a rapid rise in Chinese power and aggression. They emphasize the increasing importance of the Indo-Pacific, the area of greatest geopolitical competition and compounding threats to the global order. They call for a belated but properly executed pivot that includes economic, military and diplomatic components. The conversation also touches on the challenges of getting the American people and political class behind a pivot to Asia, the need for increased defense spending and the importance of deterrence in dealing with China.

Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami discusses the rise of China's "wolf-warrior" diplomacy, including what motivates their aggressive approach to their diplomatic roles. He explains how China's growing economic and military power has led to a shift in their approach to international relations, with a focus on regaining national prestige at the expense of China's neighbors. Ambassador Yamagami emphasizes the need for countries to speak out against these aggressive tactics and not acquiesce to their demands. He also discusses the importance of the AUKUS and the Quad, Japan's recent rapprochement with South Korea, and the important role of Japan's new national security policy in countering China's influence.In this week's edition of "There I was ...", Ray tells his experience with a Chinese military diplomat who had a list of things he had to say.

"If you don't have an India play, you're not recognizing the realities of growth over the next 30 or 40 years on our planet."U.S.-India Business Council President Ambassador Atul Keshap spotlights the shared values and democratic principles between India and the United States, emphasizing that India's rise to become the world's third largest economy will be a net benefit for the American people. The conversation also covers India's economic growth, the challenges of attracting foreign direct investment, the need for job creation, and the complexities of doing business in India. Additionally, the discussion touches on India's geopolitical relationships, including its border disputes with China, its involvement in the Quad alliance, and its pragmatic approach to foreign policy.

Member of Parliament Peter Khalil joins Jim and Ray to talk about how Australia has dealt with foreign interference operations--with an emphasis on Beijing's sophisticated influence machine--through national legislation and other security policies and framework documents. This response has been comprehensive, including strengthening Australia's defense, cyber security and intelligence efforts, as well as building security partnerships with like-minded democracies. Universities have been a particular target of foreign interference operations, and Peter discusses how Australia has tried to curb China's corrupting influences in academia while maintaining academic freedom. Another critical challenge has been to build in this national resilience while avoiding xenophobic policies and rhetoric that negatively impacts Australia's important ethnic Chinese communities. Peter ends by emphasizing how a successful the Indo-Pacific future must be built on a middle-power fulcrum, where like-minded countries work together to uphold the crucial rules-based order and deter conflict.

Admiral Phil Davidson, the former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from 2018-2021, discusses the so-called "Davidson window"--the period beginning in 2027 which many believe is when the threat of war over Taiwan will be at its greatest. He explains how his name became associated with this term. The then emphasizes the need for a strong conventional deterrent, the importance of deepening alliance relationships, and how showing commitment in other regions is crucial to averting war over Taiwan. He explains how China's growing bellicosity is perceived by other countries, and how Beijing is executing a pressure campaign to achieve its objectives short of war using asymmetric means.Admiral Davidson also discusses the need for devoting resources Indo-Pacific defense and where those could come from, for addressing U.S. and allied force structure deficiencies and for assuring the region that the U.S. remains an effective and reliable security partner. He concludes by emphasizing Taiwan's importance to key U.S. allies--especially Japan.To close, Jim tells the story of when he was accused of being a CIA spy for being "too nice".

Jim and Ray discuss the remarkable Southeast Asian nation of Singapore with Nydia Ngiow, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia's Singapore office. They explore why how this small city-state emerged to play a leading role in Indo-Pacific business and geopolitical affairs--even hosting major international events like the Asia Tech Summit and the Shangri-La Dialogue. Nydia talks about how Singapore came to be, and how it navigates its complex relationships with the US and China and practices a "consistent, principled and pragmatic" foreign policy. They also touch on Singapore's external security threats, its internal politics and its approach to balancing political stability against civil liberties. Finally, she explains how Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong and political changes in the U.S. have impacted Singapore.In this week's edition of "There I was ...", Jim tells Ray his experience with a Singapore COVID quarantine.

Ray and Jim examine why we should care about the seemingly insignificant islands scattered across the Pacific region with former U.S. Ambassador to Palau John Hennessey-Niland. They highlight the strategic importance of these islands in terms of their supply routes and military access. John explains the Compacts of Free Association by which the U.S. guarantees the security of three Micronesian countries in exchange for exclusive access. They also discuss the rapidly expanding role of China in these island countries and the challenges of "elite capture" and corruption. The conversation emphasizes the need for the United States and its allies to avoid the temptation to ignore these countries and allow them to slip into China's orbit through benign neglect.Finally, in the latest edition of "There I was...", Ray recounts how he and Jim were able to navigate a tricky international dilemma in Australia with the help of a very good military lawyer.

Ray and Jim talk to Elbridge Colby, author and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, about his provocative views concerning America's need to urgently address the China threat by prioritizing the Indo-Pacific theater. They discuss and debate the interaction between sharp honesty and assurance when dealing with America's allies, their concerns about U.S. staying power, and whether accepting risks in other theaters might actually undermine deterrence with respect to Taiwan and East Asia. The wide-ranging conversation covers a range of topics related to U.S. foreign policy and defense strategy, including China's gray-zone coercion and America's defense industrial base.

Ray and Jim talk to Ian Urbina, Director of the Outlaw Ocean Project about the vast, lawless areas of the sea where dark, extra-legal, often destructive and inhumane activities take place. Ian highlights the ethical concern for the well-being of the 50 million people who work at sea, the environmental impact of the oceans as the earth's climate stabilizer and source of biodiversity, and the fascinating stories that unfold in this hidden world. He also delves into the issues of overfishing--especially China's immense distant-water fishing fleet--and human rights abuses in the fishing industry.

Ray & Jim talk about an Asian civil war and human rights disaster that many have never heard of with former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar, Scot Marciel.Myanmar is a southeast Asian country of 55 million people strategically located between Thailand, China, India, and Bangladesh, which experienced a military coup in 2021. The ruling junta has been responsible for massive human rights violations and a humanitarian crisis, while a growing resistance has recently gained significant ground.China has strategic interests in Myanmar, and has supported both the military and some ethnic armed groups. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has struggled to address the crisis. The best hope for Myanmar's is for the resistance to prevail and negotiate a new federal system, but there are risks of balkanization among the ethnic groups.At the end, special guest Biak Tha Hlawn--now a student at Stanford University--shares her personal experience as a member of the persecuted Chin ethnic group, and the losses her family has suffered due to the conflict. Those who wish to support her relief efforts can contact Hlawn at [email protected].

Ray and Jim welcome retired Admiral Harry B. Harris, Jr., former commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and former Ambassador to South Korea, to discuss how alliances are crucial to U.S. national security. They touch on each of the five Indo-Pacific treaty alliances--Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand--and discuss why some are coming together in a new "latticework", replacing the "hub-and-spoke" model of the past. Admiral Harris explains why he has come to advocate for replacing the decades-long U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan and replacing it with one of "strategic clarity". He also discusses the roles of several new Indo-Pacific groupings such as the Quad--U.S., Japan, Australia and India.

Jim and Ray welcome retired Major General Mick Ryan, Royal Australian Army and retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, U.S. Navy to discuss the importance of defending Taiwan. They highlight the profound consequences of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan and its implications for the United States, Australia and the region. They emphasize the need to communicate the significance of Taiwan to the public, and to strengthen deterrence against China's aggression. The conversation explores the challenges of deterrence in the modern age and the need for a comprehensive approach that goes beyond military capabilities. Mick discusses his recent book about a hypothetical war over Taiwan and the importance of land operations in the defense of Taiwan.

Jim & Ray interview former U.S.Ambassador Ted Osius--now the President and CEO of the US-ASEAN Business Council--about the importance of Southeast Asia's rapidly growing economies, especially as companies seek to de-risk away from China's deteriorating business environment. They discuss the growth and potential of Southeast Asia, the opportunities for US investment in the region, and the continuing challenges faced by American companies who want to operate there. They also touch on America's failed involvement with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and how that has negatively affected its economic opportunities and strategic position in Asia. They further discuss ASEAN's role in regional politics--what it can and can't do in the economic, diplomatic and security arenas.In this episode's "There I was..." segment, Jim recalls how as diplomats in Jakarta he and Ted would meet regularly with a wealthy Indonesian businessman who often had an axe to grind.

Jim and Ray interview the Philippine Coast Guard's spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, Commodore Jay Tarriela, about China's continuing harassment of Philippine ships at a time when the mist of the previous day's water-cannoning near Scarborough Shoal was still dissipating. They discuss the importance of countering Chinese aggression and protecting the international rules-based order. They ask Jay to weigh the benefits of the Philippines' transparency campaign against its risks, and to comment on ASEAN's reluctance to publicly back Manila in its maritime struggles and its inability to produce a South China Sea Code of Conduct.They also laugh and lament over the accusations by Beijing's propagandists about Ray's supposed manipulation of Jay and the Philippine government.Finally in "There I was...", Ray tells the story of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, when he and his new bride were evacuated from the Philippines.

Ray and Jim are joined by retired Lieutenant General Lori Reynolds, former U.S. Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Information, who provides insights into China's recently uncovered "Volt Typhoon" cyber operation and its implications for national security, both within the U.S. and across the free world. They discuss Beijing's shift from simple snatch-and-grab intellectual property theft to now conducting high-level cyber espionage and embedding its operatives within a nation's critical infrastructure. They also talk about the data security and cognitive threats posed by TikTok and the need for free countries to become more resilient, and to leverage their own asymmetric advantages by exposing the Chinese Communist Party's cyber aggressions.00:00 Introduction and Background05:12 China's Shifting Cyber Strategy: From Intellectual Property Theft to Critical Infrastructure Embedding11:58 The Threat of TikTok: Data Access and Manipulation22:23 The Threat of TikTok and the Need for Divestment28:04 Leveraging Asymmetric Advantage: The Power of Truth and Strategic Narratives32:44 Contesting Chinese Influence: Exposing and Countering Manipulation in Various Industries