What the Hell Is Going On

The story from mainstream media is that the core of MAGA is "split" on the war with Iran, strikes in Venezuela, the Houthis, and other Trump 2.0 international policies. This supposed "MAGA schism" over foreign policy challenges Trump's coalition of America First isolationists and hawkish establishment Republicans. But the data tells a different story. Drawing on our coverage of the Reagan National Defense Survey and the work of our guest Kristen Soltis Anderson, we find no evidence of such a divide. In fact, MAGA voters appear overwhelmingly hawkish and strongly supportive of President Trump’s military operations, particularly in Iran. If a divide does exist within the Republican Party, it is more likely generational than ideological. What might that mean for the future of conservative foreign policy leadership? And as we look to 2028, what does a successful Republican candidate project on foreign policy according to the polls?Kristen Soltis Anderson is a pollster, speaker, TV personality, New York Times opinion writer, commentator, and author. Kristen is Founding Partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm that serves brands, trade associations, nonprofits, and political clients. She is an on-air political contributor at CNN and previously has been a contributor to Fox News Channel and ABC News. She currently writes the newsletter “Codebook” on Substack and is the author of, “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up).”Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Operation Roaring Lion, now in its fourth week, has been a striking display of military coordination between the United States and Israel. Building on the success of decapitating Iran’s senior leadership, crippling its navy, and degrading its ability to terrorize its neighbors, U.S. and Israeli leaders are now weighing Tehran’s rhetoric against the reality of its diminished capabilities. Rumors of a “split” in priorities between Washington and Jerusalem, particularly claims that President Trump is quickly seeking a “off-ramp”, misread the resolve of both nations and fail to see the bigger picture at hand. In the remaining weeks, what objectives remain? Where do U.S. and Israeli missions converge or diverge? And what will ultimately signal their success?Ambassador Leiter officially assumed his role as Israel’s Ambassador to Washington on January 27, 2025. Among his prominent roles, he served as an advisor to the late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Chief of Staff to then-Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Education, and Acting Chairman of the Israel Ports Company. Beyond government, Leiter was affiliated with think tanks such as the Kohelet Policy Forum and the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, where he focused on issues like Israeli sovereignty, security strategy, and critiques of the Oslo Accords.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, we share cautious optimism with General Jack Keane on the current state of our military operation in Iran. News of Donald Trump's negotiations with Tehran and an extended partial ceasefire require us to carefully define our objectives and determine what a good deal really requires. General Keane makes it clear, "They would have to surrender to us in major concessions all the things that we are physically taking away from them to include keeping the Strait of Hormuz open." With a three-week horizon, is regime change at the hand of the Iranians still viable? What lies at the end for this regime, once their missiles, cash, and nuclear materials are gone? And what is Admiral Coopers' game plan to get us there?General Jack Keane is a retired 4-star general and former Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army. He is the Chairman of the Institute for the Study of War and a Fox News Senior Strategic Analyst.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

On this episode of WTH Extra! Dany and Marc discuss their recent pieces on the war in Iran and the media coverage that has followed. Marc writes for the Post, What is the definition of victory in Iran? There are three. Dany writes in the WTH Substack, No we're not losing to Iran, detailing the myths and tropes about the ongoing war and its operational success. What Western media and our supposed "allies" fail to, or refuse, to consider, is that Iran is a unique enemy and the regime's words must be taken seriously. To root for failure is an affront to our ongoing mission and the Iranian people. So WTH? We share our wisdom with more to come...Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Our WTH saga on Chinese espionage continues with a new installment on the technology inside your car. Chris Miller details “Huawei on wheels”: the security threat posed by Chinese EVs, whose sensors, cameras, microphones, and radars can transmit data directly from your car to servers in China. You might be thinking, “I don’t drive a Chinese car, so I’m safe.” Unfortunately, the broader trend is cause for serious alarm. Our European allies have once again failed to regulate Chinese influence and are adopting low-cost autonomous driving technology and communication components from China that report to Chinese satellites. Why doesn't this national security threat receive the congressional attention it deserves? Marc's thesis rings true: the more we comingle our economy with China, the harder it will be to remove threats and roll back poor policy decisions. As Chris Miller puts it, “These are smartphones on wheels, and we’ve got to treat them with the requisite level of security concern.”Chris Miller is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on Russian foreign policy, Ukraine, and broader Eurasia. He specializes in semiconductors and the geopolitics of technology. His latest book Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology reveals the geopolitical history of the computer chip. It is a New York Times bestseller and a winner of the 2022 Financial Times Business Book of the Year Award.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Over the weekend, President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury, the most ambitious US military operation in decades. In the wake of the 2025 12-Day War, Iran again worked to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program and its missile arsenal. These threats, in combination with the massacre of tens of thousands of Iranians in January, brought the US to the brink of war. The operation has targeted IRGC command, missile defense systems, and senior regime leadership, including the Supreme Leader and his successors. Secretary Hegseth has stated that nothing is off the table, including the possible deployment of ground forces, an option potentially necessary to secure Iran’s nuclear materials. Our guest, David Albright, warns that failing to secure those materials will ultimately undermine the operation’s success. In the weeks ahead, what indicators will signal whether the regime is truly at risk of collapse? Beyond military targets, what political considerations must be addressed to ensure lasting success once combat operations cease?David Albright is the founder and President of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, D.C. He has written numerous assessments on secret nuclear weapons programs throughout the world, has authored or co-authored nine books and briefed policymakers on non-proliferation policy making.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Yesterday marked the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Four years of war in which Russian forces have occupied roughly one and a half percent of Ukraine’s territory at the cost of approximately half a million lives. Our guest, Frederick W. Kagan, and his team at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) assess that Russia’s strategy is to win at the negotiating table what it cannot seize on the battlefield. Putin’s theory of victory rests on the assumption that Russian forces will continue grinding forward indefinitely, regardless of the cost, and that he will be able to persuade the West to abandon Ukraine, ultimately forcing Kyiv to concede more than it already has. Successful negotiation requires changing Putin’s calculus. Over the past four years, Ukrainians have made their position unmistakably clear: “We would rather die than be part of Russia.” So, what will drive this tipping point toward peace? Would a global inflection point against malign actors and axis partners change Putin's negotiating position? And what security guarantees from the West would be sufficient to sustain this hypothetical peace? Frederick W. Kagan is a senior fellow and the director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). He edits CTP’s and the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) daily updates on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He was previously an associate professor of military history at West Point, and he earned the Distinguished Public Service Award for his volunteer service in Afghanistan. Dr. Kagan coauthored the report Defining Success in Afghanistan and is the author of the “Choosing Victory” report series, which recommended and monitored the US military surge in Iraq.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Blame it on American individualism or a political aversion to regulation, but the United States has become a striking outlier in its failure to regulate the assisted reproductive technology industry. As a result, individuals from other countries have begun engaging in quasi–birth tourism through American surrogacy contracts, and not in small numbers. Chinese billionaire Xu Bo, for example, has reportedly fathered more than 100 American children through surrogacy and has been involved in legal battles over custody, describing them as part of his “business legacy". Beyond clear international abuses of U.S. surrogacy laws, there are also numerous domestic practices that warrant greater oversight and protection. The central question is why? What do they want these children for? Who, if anyone, is regulating these contracts? And why have lawmakers declined to address this rapidly growing industry?Charles Hilu is a reporter for The Dispatch based in Washington, D.C. Before joining the company in 2024, he was the Collegiate Network Fellow at the Washington Free Beacon and interned at both National Review and the Washington Examiner. He attended the University of Michigan, earning a Bachelor’s in Political Science, where he was editor in chief of The Michigan Review and chairman of Young Americans for Freedom.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

In addition to the media blitz over Greenland triggered by President Trump, American presidents going back a century have agreed on the strategic importance of the island due to its fundamental geography, proximity, and critical sea lines. China and Russia’s Arctic ambitions require greater defensive efforts by the (now sovereign) Danes and strong resistance to coercion should Greenlanders continue on their path to independence. Our guest sheds light on the various precedents underlying these concerns and the so-called "Cyprus Model" for the US's role. What does that roadmap look like? Do we need sovereignty to achieve our goals? If and when Greenland gains independence, what economic and security agreements will need to be made? And what impact, negative or positive, does Trump's rhetoric have on the conversation?Alexander Gray is the Chief Executive Officer of American Global Strategies LLC, an international strategic advisory firm that he co-founded with former U.S. National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien. Mr. Gray most recently served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff of the White House National Security Council (NSC), where he directed the daily operations of the National Security Advisor’s immediate office, as well as the budget, personnel, and security functions of the NSC, as well as positions within the State Department and the Hill. Mr. Gray concurrently serves as Term Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, is a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC); a Senior Nonresident Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute (GTI); and a Senior Nonresident Fellow in the GeoStrategy Initiative at The Atlantic Council.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Kremlinology has made its way east as analysts try to make sense of dramatic PLA purges under Xi Jinping. The CCP regime appears to be clearing house, but what does it all mean? Should there be a reconsideration of a Taiwan contingency for China? Is China even equipped to make threats against its neighbors? At a moment of global turbulence, why reduce military expertise? What does it all mean for the United States? Is Xi going the way of Stalin? So many questions; join us for the answers.John Garnaut is the founder of Garnaut Global, where he provides strategic advice and risk management services to global finance and corporate clients as an authority on Chinese elite politics and Chinese Communist Party interference. John was previously Fairfax's China correspondent and Asia-Pacific Editor, Senior Advisor to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, and Principal Advisor at the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, where he led the government's analysis and policy response to authoritarian interference. He regularly presents to departments and agencies in Australia and the United States and serves as a Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

With regime change brewing in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, and the Russian war of attrition still marching on, Cold War déjà vu shapes our understanding of what happens when regimes do fall and offers a hopeful conclusion. Former Soviet states that have joined the EU have experienced an average tenfold increase in GDP since 1990, while Russia and its non-EU neighbors have grown only fourfold. Like the stark contrast of the Berlin Wall, if Ukraine is free to continue to prosper economically, people in Russia’s border regions will begin to work out that the problem isn’t NATO, the problem isn’t ideology, the problem is the failure of the system in Russia to deliver. And in addition to the huge costs of the war already waged, that’s something Putin cannot afford. So, will Putin try to wait it out? What choices does he have to avoid failure? We asked an investment banker for his theory and the numbers are enlightening…Michael Tory is a co-founder and Chairman of the financial advisory firm Ondra Partners. Tory is also an outspoken advocate for and supports several NGO efforts in Ukraine. Previously, he served as head of UK investment banking for Lehman Brothers Inc. and has been a Senior UK investment banker of Lehman Brothers Holdings. Michael previously served as Morgan Stanley’s head of investment banking in the UK and worked in their New York office for over a decade. Tory is also principal of Turning the Page, which develops and publishes ideas for rebuilding the UK’s domestic capital markets and savings systems.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

The so-called “pro-Israel lobby” in Washington, D.C., has long been a target for antisemites and for fringe voices on both sides of the aisle. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, support for Israel in the United States is not a predominantly Jewish cause. Once a Democratic hallmark, its strongest base today is Evangelical Christians, whose theology and values profoundly shape their political advocacy for the Jewish people and their homeland. Yet antisemitism and hostility toward Israel persist, with October 7th exposing eroded support across the political spectrum. What ideology drives these attitudes? How can the generational divide over Israel be bridged? And what do these trends reveal about America’s values?Ralph Reed is the founder and chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition and is the chairman and CEO of Century Strategies, a public relations and public affairs firm. Prior to founding the Faith & Freedom Coalition, Ralph served as Executive Director of the Christian Coalition where he built one of the most effective public policy organizations. Reed also served as a senior advisor to the 2000 and 2004 Bush-Cheney presidential campaigns and was chairman of the Southeast Region for Bush-Cheney 2004. As chairman of the Georgia Republican Party, he helped elect the first Republican Governor and third U.S. Senator since Reconstruction. Reed has worked on seven presidential campaigns and has advised 88 campaigns for U.S. Senate, Governor, and Congress across 24 states. He is the best-selling author and editor of seven books, including his latest novel, Awakening.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

The world is watching as protests rage across Iran amid nationwide internet blackouts, state-sponsored propaganda, and lethal security force crackdowns. Despite reports suggesting that hundreds, possibly thousands, have been killed at the time of this writing, Iranians are taking their future in their hands with extraordinary courage. For Tehran, what makes this wave of unrest different from those before it? Should civil war breakout, will we finally see a free Iran? Will President Trump enforce the red line he has drawn for the regime, and if so, what military options exist without deploying boots on the ground? Will President Trump ignore the eleventh-hour, desperate promises of diplomacy from Islamist leaders? He’ll need to if he intends to continue his administration’s legacy of freedom.Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. He also currently serves as director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

For many Americans, Operation Absolute Resolve, which brought Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro to trial in New York, was an unexpected New Year’s surprise. For others who have endured the corruption of his regime and watched as American adversaries have turned Venezuela and Cuba into platforms for illicit investment, arms trafficking, and narcotics, it is a long-awaited moment of vindication. It appears Chávez’s henchmen are finally facing the music. But why now? Our guest, Roger Noriega, cites institutional issues within the U.S. government and severe counterintelligence failures of the past, obstacles he argues have been overcome under Marco Rubio’s leadership and with President Trump’s resolve. So, what’s next? Will the opposition win a democratic election? And what is the Cuban play here? Could their regime be at risk?Roger Noriega is the founder and managing director of the consultant firm, Vision Americas LLC, which has teams in Washington and Bogotá. Ambassador (ret.) Roger F. Noriega has more than three decades of public policy experience focusing on U.S. interests in the Western Hemisphere. After a 10-year career on Capitol Hill with Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs, he was appointed by President George W. Bush to senior State Department posts including Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs and a U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States. He also coordinated the American Enterprise Institute's program on Latin America as a visiting Fellow for 15 years.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

It is officially 2026, which means America is turning 250 this year. Our question on this semiquincentennial looks back to America’s founding and the constitutional framework that gave birth to our nation. America is the only nation founded not on blood or soil, but on a creed. Established by the Declaration of Independence, this creed, now more than ever, should be viewed through Jefferson’s words as a unifying force in our country as we continue to confront the challenges of a multicultural society. Both sides of the aisle have factions that seek to blame American democracy for our difficulties. Still, Professor Wood assures us that Americans are better positioned than any other people to mitigate these challenges because of our creedal identity. So what is the source of our strength? Is civic education the key to protecting our ideals? And how important are a free society and assimilation in preserving them?Gordon Wood is a renowned and highly awarded historian and Professor of History Emeritus at Brown University. He is the author of the Creation of the American Republic which won the Bancroft Prize and the John H. Dunning Prize, and The Radicalism of the American Revolution, which won the Pulitzer Prize for History and the Ralph Waldo Emerson Prize, among many other written works. In 2011 he was awarded a National Humanities Medal by President Obama and the Churchill Bell by Colonial Williamsburg. He is largely regarded as a leading scholar of Early American history, known specifically for his masterful prose and transformative understanding of true radicalism of the American Revolution. The American Enterprise Institute most recently awarded him the Irving Kristol Award.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.