War on the Rocks

Welcome to a sneak peek of Thinking the Unthinkable, our newest members-only podcast. We are previewing this members-only podcast on this feed for free. This members-only show features in-depth analysis and insight on the perils of a new nuclear age and is hosted by Ankit Panda. Expect Ankit to challenge views on nuclear weapons, deterrence, and explore the future of arms control. This show will come out bi-weekly for War on the Rocks members. If you like what you hear, consider joining War on the Rocks Platinum, where you can hear all of Ankit's future podcasts, along with the Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman and a slew of other podcasts and newsletters focused on national security. Join our tribe today to gain access to War on the Rocks Platinum.

Ryan sat down with Bruce Hoffman, the Shelby Cullom and Kathryn W. Davis senior fellow for counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss Hamas' terror attack over the weekend. The conversation touched on the intelligence failure before the attack, Hamas' history of terror attacks in the region, the role of Iran, and the likelihood of a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. This conversation was recorded on Monday, Oct. 9, 2023.

Nick sat down with Evan Medeiros, Thomas Shugart and Emily Weinstein to take stock of where U.S.-Chinese relations stand today and where they might be going. Can President Biden's diplomatic push pay off? How will Taiwan's elections and Beijing's internal shakeup change the equation? What lessons is President Xi Jinping actually learning from the invasion of Ukraine? And can the U.S. and China ultimately find a stable floor for their bilateral relationship or are they headed toward conflict?

Nick and Mike sat down for an in-depth discussion of what it would take for Ukraine to achieve a true breakthrough against Russian forces. Mike also evaluated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent visit to Washington, D.C., Ukraine's strike on Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters and the potential impact of ATACMS.

Ryan was happy to welcome back Lt. Gen. Brian Robinson and Lt. Gen. Andrea Tullos onto the show. These Air Force leaders lead Air Education and Training Command and Air University, respectively, the latter of which is a major component of the former. As such, they work together all the time (and aren't dueling, but fun title right?). In this episode, they speak to Ryan about what they and their teams are doing to ensure the U.S. Air Force is trained at the highest level possible in order to ensure readiness. Robinson was on the show last year about related topics. And this is Tullos' third appearance on the show, and she has also appeared on Unspent Rounds.

Ryan sat down at the War on the Rocks office with Adm. Sir Antony Radakin, the professional head of the United Kingdom's military. The two discussed the United Kingdom's support for the Ukrainian military, the lessons learned from the conflict and the challenges Russia is now facing. The conversation then pivoted to the future of the British military, the plans for global force presence and Adm. Radakin's perspective on the status of AUKUS.

Nick Danforth sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss the state of the Ukrainain offensive three months in, as well as the challenges of assessing it. Mike also explained why he, as an analyst, was particularly pleased to have Yevgeny Prigozhin out of the picture. The two discussed Mike's recent co-authored piece with Rob Lee, "Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine's Counteroffensive at Three Months," and how the findings were similar to Jack Watling and Nick Reynold's latest report for RUSI, Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine's 2023 Offensive.

On this episode of the War on the Rocks podcast, deputy assistant to U.S. President Joe Biden, Joshua Geltzer, sat down with Nicholas Danforth to discuss the administration's case for the reauthorization of section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. They discussed the act's role in a changing threat environment, challenges in Congress and potential avenues to mitigate civil liberties concerns.

On this special preview of the Russia Contingency, Mike sat down with Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The conversation touched on the latest news from the Ukrainian offensive, examined lessons learned from observing the conflict and explored the Ukrainian definition of victory in the war. Parts two and three of this conversation are available exclusively on the Russia Contingency. Sign up today.

On this episode, Nick sits down with Mike to discuss Ukraine's ongoing offensive. The conversation discussed the latest from Ukraine's three axes of advance. The two also covered the latest reports from both the Washington Post and the New York Times focused on the U.S. government's growing pessimism about the offensive, as well as how to judge Ukrainian military action. Mike also examined the latest news from the Black Sea, Russia's recent boarding of a ship operating in the area, and the feasibility of Russia using its Navy to interdict civilian ships there.

Ryan and Mike finally found themselves in the same locale after heavy travel and sat down for a in-depth conversation on Ukraine's offensive, how we got here, and what might be coming next.

Aaron sat down with Mike to discuss the Ukrainian counteroffensive and where things stand along the three axes of advance. The two discussed the state of the Ukrainian armed forces, the units committed to the fight, Russia's well-prepared defense and whether the offensive is at an inflection point.

To mark the tenth anniversary of War on the Rocks, Philip D. Zelikow did us the honor of interviewing Ryan on the origin story of War on the Rocks, where it's gone from there, and where it is going next.

On this special sneak peak of the Russia Contingency, Mike sat down with Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, to discuss the findings from their recent research trip to Ukraine. The conversation covered Russian defensive lines, the role that mines have played in stymying Ukraine's counteroffensive, and the broader challenges the Ukrainian military has with scaling offensive operations. To listen to part 2 of this episode, as well as a series of conversations about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the Russian military, sign up today to become a member of War on The Rocks.

On this sneak-peak episode of the Russia Contingency, Aaron sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss the state of the Ukrainian military's offensive, the different axes of advance and what the offensive may be able to tell observers about the direction of the conflict. Listeners will get to hear the first 20 minutes of the conversation. To hear the rest, which examined the recent debates in Russia about nuclear weapons use and looked back at Yevgeny Prighozin's mutiny, please consider becoming a War on the Rocks member.

Aaron sat down recently with Kimberly Jackson, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for force readiness and Gen. David Berger, who is handing over the reins as commandant of the Marine Corps on the day that this podcast is published. The conversation focused on the article "Readiness Redefined: Now What?," which was published on the site on June 12th. The three discussed how to think about readiness and how to fuse data to answer tough questions about where and when to take risks

This episode comes to you from Ramstein Air Base, where Ryan spoke with Gen. James Hecker of the U.S. Air Force and Air Marshall Johnny Stringer of the Royal Air Force about what we can learn from airpower and spacepower almost a year and a half into the war in Ukraine.

In the first of a series of conversations on the topic of the defense industrial base and capital, Ryan is joined by Dan Gwak of Point72 and James Parker of Leonid. If you're a policymaker, founder, technologist, in finance, or a defense acquisitions professional this is a must-listen episode.

In today's episode, Mike looks at the slow progress of the Ukrainian offensive and what, if anything, it means for the course of the war. He also discusses Russia's defensive strategy and how grateful he is not to be in Yevgeny Prigozhin's head. Mike and Nick recorded this show on Friday, June 23rd before the Wagner insurrection began to escalate. We will have more podcasts and articles on the recent events in Russia in the coming days and weeks.

On this special edition podcast, listeners will get to hear the first 20 minutes of Unspent Rounds, a members-only War on the Rocks podcast that features interesting conversations with interesting people. On this episode, Aaron Stein spoke with Capt. Adam "AI" Solomon, an airfield operations flight commander. Adam was in charge of airfield operations and oversaw almost all aspects of flight operations during the evacuation from Kabul. The conversation explored the withdrawal, how it all went down, how challenging it was to coordinate flight operations, how Adam dealt with logistical challenges when evacuating people from the country, and the tragic killing of 13 Marines guarding the airport. To listen to the show in its entirety, and to other episodes of Unspent Rounds, sign up to become a War on the Rocks member.

On Monday, Nick Danforth sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss the latest from the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive. In this episode, Mike details the advances of Ukrainian forces to date, as well as their challenges and potential objectives. He also weighs in on the value and limitations of ongoing Western military support and warns against the dangers of excessive and unfounded optimism.

On this special edition podcast, listeners will get to hear the first 20 minutes of Mike Kofman's members-only podcast, The Russia Contingency. Mike spoke last week with William C. Wohlforth, a faculty member in Dartmouth College's department of government about Russia, its role in the world and American power in Europe. The 45-minute conversation explored in-depth the challenges of forecasting, analyzed Russian revisionism and explored the future of great power competition. To listen to the show in its entirety, and to other episodes of The Russia Contingency, sign up to become a War on the Rocks Member.

Following Russia's failed winter offensive, Ukraine appears to be preparing for its planned counter-offensive. Ryan sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss the state of Russia's armed forces, the current state of the Western-led effort to train and equip Ukrainian forces and the latest from the battle for Bakhmut. The conversation also touched on the role of the British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missile, Ukraine's ability to absorb the F-16, what exactly happened during the recent cross-border attack on Belgorod and revisited concerns about nuclear escalation.

This week, Ryan sat down at a cafe in Washington, D.C., with Hümeyra Pamuk and Nicholas Danforth to discuss the results of Turkey's May 14 election. They talked about the nature of President Erdogan's rule, the roots of his political longevity and what these elections mean for Turkey's future.

Ryan sat down with Mike Kofman at WOTR HQ in Washington, DC to talk about Ukraine's coming offensive; the manpower, materiel, and politics behind it; and lingering questions about Team Biden's theory of success. Are you a War on the Rocks member yet? If not, why not? Check it out at warontherocks.com/membership

Ryan recently tagged along on a little trip to Alabama with Gen. CQ Brown, the chief of staff of the Air Force. They recorded this episode on the flight back to Washington. Gen. Brown discussed basing and posture in the Indo-Pacific, what the Air Force might be learning from the war in Ukraine, his vision for the Air Force as expressed in Accelerate Change or Lose, artificial intelligence, books that have influenced him, and his passion for leadership.

Ryan sat down at 1789 in Georgetown with Justin Vaïsse, a French historian and director general of the Paris Peace Forum, an independent NGO he started at the urging of French President Emmanuel Macron. Justin recently returned from China where he was traveling with Macron. They discussed Macron's recent remarks about China that were so poorly received in Washington, the work of his organization, and what he learned from the Cold War.

Ryan sat down with two old friends for a rich conversation on wielding innovation and smart policies to create an American renewal. Listen to his conversation with Dave McCormick, author of Superpower in Peril: A Battle Plan to Renew America (along with James Cunningham) and Chris Brose of Anduril Industries. The first 15 people that email editor (at) warontherocks (dot) com with a personal story about how you participated in innovation in some way will get a free hardcopy of Superpower in Peril.

Mike Kofman joins the show yet again. This time, he explains why the debate over the wisdom of the Battle for Bahkmut is so important while still overshadowing other important debates. As Ukrainian forces are being pressed out of the city of Bahkmut, they preparing to go back on the offensive, which will put Russia on the defense. The critical issue in Mike's view is what happens after the Ukrainian offensive. Listen to understand why. Do you want to listen to more Mike? Become a member and you get access to his show, the "Russia Contingency."

Nicholas Danforth recently sat down with Agustina Giraudy, Adam Isacson and Anya Prusa to discuss the latest political developments in Latin America. This the second installment of our two-part podcast. The conversation began with an overview of the role of the military in different Latin American countries, before pivoting to an examination of regional views of great powers. The conversation concluded with a discussion about U.S. policy in the region, and how different governments view the Biden administration.

On this episode, Ryan sat down with Schuyler Moore, the chief technology officer for U.S. Central Command, to discuss how it is planning to fight and win the next war with new and exciting technology.

Nicholas Danforth recently sat down with Agustina Giraudy, Adam Isacson and Anya Prusa to discuss the latest political developments in Latin America. This two-part podcast covers the rise of the Left in the region as well as its implications for relations with Washington, Moscow and Beijing.

Fresh back from his research trip to Ukraine, Mike Kofman joins Ryan for a discussion about what he learned. They discuss the battle for Bakhmut, munitions shortages and force structure, artillery and attrition, Russia's unimpressive offensive, and what else the West could be doing to set Ukraine up for success in a widely anticipated spring offensive.

Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl and Counselor to the Secretary of State Derek Chollet join the show to reflect on the war on year after Russia's brutal invasion and the commencement of Ukraine's monumental resistance. In a wide-ranging, hour-long conversation, the two respond to Ryan's questions about the arming of Ukraine, sanctions, choices about certain platforms and munitions, China, India, America's staying power, and much more.

Mike Kofman sat down with Nicholas Danforth to discuss Russia's latest offensive, it's focus, and why it has been underwhelming so far. The conversation analyzes the current state of the conflict, where it may be headed, the constraints each side may face in the coming months, and whether this year could see decisive turning points in the war.

Mike Kofman and Ryan Evans cover a lot of ground in this episode about the war in Ukraine: Russian goals in the Donbass, the coming Russian counter-offensive, the state of Russian and Ukrainian forces, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, cluster and sensor-fuzed munitions, fourth-generation fighter aircraft, a warm winter, nuclear risk, and more. If you are interested in what's happening in and around Ukraine, this is another must-listen episode.

Ryan sat down with Dr. Mara Karlin, who serves as assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities. They discussed the making of the new National Defense Strategy, the critical topic of implementation, integrated deterrence, how Russia's fumbles in Ukraine have changed the way the Pentagon thinks about Moscow as an adversary, and a whole lot more.

In his latest discussion with Ryan on the war in Ukraine, Mike Kofman explains why the coming spring and summer will be strategically decisive. He also offers his analysis on the Russian command reshuffle, new Western kit, and the grinding battle for Bakhmut.

Michael Kofman joins Ryan for their first discussion of the new year on the war in Ukraine. They cover the state of play at the various fronts, manpower and materiel, the Russian strike campaign, and more.

Ryan recently traveled to Air University at Maxwell Air Force Base where he was joined by three of the many big thinkers teaching servicemembers down there: Andy Akins, Anna Batta, and Mark Conversino. They covered the risk of nuclear war over Ukraine, the prospects for negotiations, why so many struggle with strategic empathy, and efforts to learn lessons from this war, which often stumble when we fail to learn lessons about ourselves.

Mike Kofman and Nick Danforth start this episode by analyzing the latest events in the war and the fighting in and around Bakhmut. Mike offers his thoughts on Russia and Ukraine's stockpiles of artillery, and what that may mean for the fighting this winter and beyond. The conversation concludes with a discussion about foreign support for the war effort, and the implications of this for the future of the conflict.

Mike Kofman and Ryan Evans start this episode by taking a step back to the beginning to put this stage of the war in context. Mike offers possible scenarios on the next few months of the war, discusses Ukraine's recent strikes on Russian bases deep in Russian territory, and assesses the state of forces, munitions, and kit on both sides.

War on the Rocks threw a party for almost 200 people on the sidelines of I/ITSEC, the premier modeling and simulations conference held every year in Orlando. At this party, we had a special guest for a live podcast recording: Lt. Gen. Brian "Smokey" Robinson, the commander of Air Education and Training Command. In a chat with Ryan, he laid out his objectives, the future of education and immersive training for airman, and the centrality of data. Robinson emphasized this is not just about pilots — as pilot training is only 10 percent of what his command does — but all airmen. In forging ahead, he echoed former Assistant Secretary James Geurts, saying "We have to demand curiosity." The two also chatted about his career, why he joined the Air Force, and why squadron command was his favorite job. They also took some questions from the audience on professional military education, the T-7A program, his tentative 2023 pilot training goal, and his favorite superhero. For a transcript of this episode, visit: https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/cognition-and-curiosity-a-conversation-with-lt-gen-brian-robinson

Ryan sat down with Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, in his New York office earlier this month to talk about why he is drawn to invest in companies working on national security challenges. But the conversation covered much more than that. They covered everything from the major defense industry primes to why anger is an important driver of innovation to what he looks for in founders, and beyond.

On this episode, Ryan and Mike discuss the liberation of Kherson, the Russian military's strategy before the start of the winter, and Ukraine's efforts to retain the initiative once the weather improves in the spring. We also offer a sample from Mike's latest members-onlypodcast, the Russia Contingency, which features an in-depth conversation with RUSI senior research fellows, Justin Bronk and Jack Watling, about the Russian air performance during the war.

While in Ukraine, Ryan sat down with Brig. Gen. Viktor Khorenko, the commander of Ukraine's Special Operations Forces. They discussed the roles and missions of Ukraine's special operators in this war, from its opening days to the present, as well as how their Russian enemies have operated. We hope you enjoy this discussion, which marks the first time Khorenko has been interviewed.

Mike Kofman and Ryan Evans recorded this episode on the war as they return home from their week-long research trip to Ukraine. They cover the fight for Kherson, Russian failures in the east, Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, and dirty bomb threats. If you're interested in hearing more from Mike, we are launching a members-only podcast that he hosts called "The Russia Contingency." We offer a sample of one of the early episodes of that show, which features Mike chatting with Konrad Muzyka about the current and future threat to Ukraine from Belarus. Become a member to get access.

During a visit to Maxwell Air Force Base, Ryan had a chance to visit with Lt. Gen. Andrea Tullos, the president and commander of Air University. We spoke about her career, how she ended up commanding the lead agent for Air Force education, producing practitioners in the art and science of air-minded warfare, the addition of more wargaming at Air University, and preparing the Air Force for an era of strategic competition. She ends with a call for military personnel to engage in professional and public debate.

A blown up bridge, progressing Ukrainian operations in the east and south, and an unimpressive Russian mobilization effort. How should these be understood? Michael Kofman updates us on the war in Ukraine.

Lawrence Freedman and Michael Kofman walk us through the post-Cold War history of the Kremlin as commander. In the second episode of this multi-part series, they focus on Russia's intervention in the Syrian Civil War and its first assault on Ukraine in the aftermath of Euromaidan. In Syria in particular, Moscow thinks it makes major progress on command and high-tech targeting, but that later proves to be something of a mirage. The Western intervention in Libya is also an important part of this period, informing how Vladimir Putin views threats to his own power and influence. Ukraine soon reveals itself to be an unresolved issue for Moscow. Don't miss the first part of this discussion, which focuses on the First and Second Chechen Wars as well as the Russo-Georgian War of 2008. In these episodes, Freedman draws on his new book, Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine.