War on the Rocks

On the sidelines of I/ITSEC in Orlando, we hosted a live podcast recording. Our guest for this very special episode was Maj. Gen. Dominique Luzeaux of France, currently championing NATO's digital transformation. This wide-ranging conversation between Ryan and Maj. Gen. Luzeaux covered training with new technologies, lessons from Ukraine, AI and more. They both also discussed what they learned from the best bosses they ever had. Thanks to Metrea for sponsoring the very special party where we recorded this episode, as well as the terrific audience in Orlando at the Capital Grille.

Mike Kofman and Ryan have a high-level conversation on strategy in this war, or the lack thereof. From Ukraine's mobilization reluctance to the Biden administration's curious approach to sequencing authorities and capabilities, they review what might ultimately cost Ukraine the war. And make no mistake, that is where the war is trending. Ryan also runs an idea by Mike on how the issue of security guarantees might work in the event of a peace settlement, in a way that doesn't involve NATO directly.

We are sharing a free Thanksgiving episode of the Russia Contingency with you all to express our gratitude for your listenership and support. This episode, brought to you by OneBrief, features Michael Kofman and Rob Lee discussing the state of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the role of technology, especially drones. Many of the insights they share are based on their recent research trip to Ukraine.

Mike Kofman came by WOTR HQ to discuss the state of the front and findings from his most recent research trip to Ukraine. From North Korean troops, to manpower woes, to Donald Trump coming back to the Oval Office, what does it all add up to for Ukraine?

Ryan popped over to Quantico to speak with four marines at the forefront of major advances in marksmanship in America's 9-1-1 force. Listen in as Maj. Steve Stephenson, Capt. Phil Williams, Gunner Josh Grayek, and Gunnery Sgt. Jude Stewart of Weapons Training Battalion explain how they are making the Marine Corps more lethal and capable than ever before. And, if you're interested in reading more, check out their article in the Gazette, "Continuously Revolutionizing Small-Arms Lethality."

Michael Kofman popped into WOTR HQ to speak with Ryan about the war. They discussed territorial losses in the Donbas, the situation in Kursk, manpower challenges on both sides, and how Ukraine is seeing war termination on favorable terms. This episode also features a short preview of the most recent episode of Mike's members-only show, "The Russia Contingency," which featured an extended conversation with Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general and world-renowned expert on military affairs. Become a member to listen here: https://warontherocks.com/membership

Three sharp directors on the National Security Council staff invited Ryan over to the Eisenhower Executive Office Building to chat about the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort, or ICE Pact, which is a trilateral partnership between the United States, Canada, and Finland that's aimed at delivering the icebreakers America needs while also jump-starting U.S. competitiveness and power in shipbuilding overall. We also advertise our new members-only podcast hosted by Benjamin Jensen, "Not the AI You're Looking For" in the middle of this episode. Join War on the Rocks platinum and listen at https://warontherocks.com/membership

Mike Kofman popped into WOTR HQ to speak with Ryan about the state of play in Ukraine. From south to north, they review the situation at the front, with special attention to Ukraine's offensive operation into Russian territory, to include its political implications. They talk about manpower and fortifications and explore how much F-16s might change the skies over Ukraine. This episode was sponsored by Onebrief. Learn more about how they are transforming military planning: onebrief.com

The U.S. Army, from the chief of staff on down, is putting its weight behind getting soldiers to take writing and publishing more seriously as an important part of the profession of arms. From the Harding Project to the revitalization of branch journals to the Line of Departure website (coming this fall) to a special forthcoming issue of Military Review on the topic, there is a lot of energy, action, and momentum behind this. Three soldiers — one non-commissioned officer and two officers — join Ryan to talk about why professional writing is so important for the writing and the solider. We hope you enjoy this conversation with Sgt. 1st Class Leyton Summerlin, Maj. Emily Lopez, and Lt. Col. Zachary Griffiths. The views they express do not represent those of the U.S. Army, the Defense Department, or any part of the U.S. government.

This is part one of a two-parter on Ukraine's operation into the Russian oblast of Kursk and it's from our members-only show, "The Russia Contingency" with Michael Kofman. In this episode Mike discusses this fast developing situation with his colleague at the Carnegie Endowment, Dara Massicot. If you're a member, you can listen to part two. Become member at: https://warontherocks.com/membership.

Ryan was joined by Melissa Griffith (SAIS-Johns Hopkins), Anne Marie Schumann (Department of the Navy), Alexis Bonnell (Air Force Research Laboratory), and Tyler Sweatt (Second Front) for a free-wheeling, candid, and thoughtful conversation on the challenges of cyber security in the Defense Department. You won't want to miss this. Please keep in mind that the views expressed by Schumann and Bonnell are their own and do not represent those of their organizations, the Department of the Navy, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government.

A sailor from a landlocked state and a soldier from a state with the country's second longest coastline are trying to accomplish something transformative for American seapower. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) are leading an important bi-partisan and bi-cameral effort to revitalize American shipbuilding and maritime strategy. They were kind enough join Ryan for a substantive and wide-ranging conversation. You can read their report on national maritime strategy here (pdf).

Mike Kofman dropped by War on the Rocks HQ to update us on the war, drawing on his findings from his recent field study in Ukraine. They discuss the state of the front (and why developments at the front might be less important than before), mobilization, China's role as a gateway and supplier for Russia, the debate over Ukraine using U.S. weapons for deep strike into Russia, and tough choices facing Kyiv.

Ryan met with Adm. Rob Bauer of the Royal Netherlands Navy for a conversation in Washington, DC. As chair of the NATO Military Committee, he is the senior-most military officer in the alliance. They discussed many things from Ukraine to why military industrial capacity has become such a defining issue for his tenure. On the eve of the NATO summit in Washington, this is a must-listen episode. Don't forget to check out our membership program: https://warontherocks.com/membership

Last year, Rajmund Andrzejczak retired as Poland's chief of the general staff, but he has been busy since. During a recent visit to Washington, he spoke with Ryan about his career, European security, Polish defense, manpower, Ukraine, and what he's been up to, including his podcast "Ground Zero."

Michael Kofman dropped into WOTR HQ to chat with Ryan about the war in Ukraine. From Russia's culminated offensive on Kharkiv, to battlefields of the Donbas, to ongoing fighting in the south, to Russia's displaced Black Sea Fleet, Mike parses through the data to try and assess where the war is heading next.

It's become more and more common for organizations in the Defense Department, from the military services to geographic combatant commands and beyond, to have chief technology officers. What do they do? What challenges do they tackle? Why are they becoming increasingly important as the U.S. military tries to maintain its technological edge over China and other shrewd and savvy rivals using tech to create asymmetries? To help grapple with these questions, I sat down with Schuyler Moore, the CTO of U.S. Central Command, and Justin Fanelli, the CTO of the U.S. Department of the Navy.

Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall was kind enough to spend some time with Ryan talking about the reorganization of the Department of the Air Force and modernization. They also discussed the challenges new entrants have breaking into working with the Defense Department. And they closed with a brief discussion about resistance to plans to move some Air National Guard members from six states into the Space Force.

Nick sat down with United States Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan to discuss the Coast Guard's global activities, from the Arctic to the Indo-Pacific to the growing digital security challenges to America's ports.

The U.S. Congress finally passed the security supplement, authorizing a large amount of funding and support to keep Ukraine in the fight. This package buys Ukraine another year of time. What will Ukraine do with that time? What is the situation at the front? Michael Kofman answers these questions and more.

Ryan sat down with three friends to talk about the war in Ukraine through the lens of a new edited volume on the topic. Enjoy this conversation with Andrea Kendall-Taylor (former CIA), Hal Brands, and Alexander Bick (former National Security Council staff), which surfaces some important disagreements and debates about the war and international order. Oh, and also buy War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World (https://www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-Conflict-Strategy-Fractured/dp/1421449846). Please note this was recorded shortly before the U.S. Congress passed the security supplemental, which included aid for Ukraine.

Nick sat down with Eric Brewer, Dana Stroul, and Gavin Clough to discuss how the conventional, proxy, and nuclear threats Iran poses are evolving. Who was deterred and who wasn't by the latest Iranian and Israeli strikes? What did we learn about Iranian capabilities? And how will this affect Iran's thinking about a bomb?

On the sidelines of the National Space Symposium, we threw a little party and recorded a podcast, because why not? Our special guest was Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb and the main focus of the conversation was the Defense Department's new strategy on space commercial integration.

This deep and fascinating conversation is one of a two-part discussion that you can listen to on the Russia Contingency, a members-only podcast hosted by Michael Kofman. Become a member here: https://warontherocks.com/membership

Nick sat down with Czech Ambassador to the United States Miloslav Stašek for a geographically wide-ranging conversation that moved from Munich to the Middle East to the Texas automotive industry. Amb. Stašek discussed the progress of his government's ammunition initiative for Ukraine, relations within the Visegrád Group and the expanding scope of U.S.-Czech ties.

Ryan popped into Austin to see what the Army Applications Laboratory was getting up to. Its director, Dr. Casey Perley, was kind enough to sit down with Ryan and break it down for him. If you care about military innovation, defense tech, and the future of the Army, this episode is for you.

Nick Danforth sat down with Moldovan Ambassador to the United States Viorel Ursu last week to discuss democracy, energy and Russian hybrid warfare, not to mention Black Sea security and the post-conflict politics of wine exports.

Mike Kofman, fresh back from a research trip to Ukraine, spoke with Ryan about Ukraine's main challenges in facing down Russia this year.

Ryan visited Ambassador Marek Magierowski at the Polish Embassy in Washington. They spoke about Poland's military build-up and the challenges posed by Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. Much of their conversation focused on defense industrial issues, which sit at the heart of NATO's most difficult hurdles.

Ryan sat down at the Pentagon with Gen. Gary Brito, who leads U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, to talk about strengthening Army professionalism, which Gen. Randy George, the chief of staff of the U.S. Army, has identified as one of his key priorities. Whether you're a solider, Department of the Army civilian, a contractor supporting the Army, or just someone interested in the future of America's Army, this episode is for you.

On the second anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ryan and Mike Kofman sit down to chat about where the war stands today and where things are heading. It is, to be candid, a pessimistic conversation. They cover the fall of Avdiivka, military leadership changes, Ukraine's mobilization challenges, Congressional dysfunction, European defense spending, and more.

Last week, Nick Danforth sat down with Denise Natali, Doug Ollivant and Bilal Wahab to discuss the latest in Iraqi politics? They debated what Iraq was like on Oc. 6th, how it has been impacted by the war in Gaza, and where the country will be five years from now.

Ryan and Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, chatted about, well, it's in his job title. They discussed North Korean intentions, American military posture, deepening cooperation between South Korea and Japan, Chinese military modernization, corruption in the Chinese military, and deterring an attack on Taiwan.

As the world grapples again with the dangers of nuclear weapons use, Aaron sat down with Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Heather Williams, the director of the project on nuclear issues and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss new nuclear dynamics, the meaning of deterrence, and debate about the future of U.S. nuclear weapons strategy. PS: We are hiring a membership editor. If you want to play a critical role in driving conversations and debates about national security, you should consider applying: https://apply.workable.com/war-on-the-rocks/j/2F3A361BCE/

As the largest war in Europe since World War II rages and as China rises, the U.S. Army is preparing for an evermore dangerous world with an ambitious vision. To learn more about this vision, Ryan paid a visit to Gen. Randy George, who has been serving as the Army's chief of staff since last September. They tackled a range of topics, from warfighting and professionalism in the Army, to modernizing training and acquisitions, and to lessons learned versus lessons identified. Gen. George reveals his thoughts on how the Army is learning from the war in Ukraine. And they also discussed a new Army initiative called "transforming in contact." PS: We are hiring a membership editor. If you want to play a critical role in driving conversations and debates about national security, you should consider applying: https://apply.workable.com/war-on-the-rocks/j/2F3A361BCE/

As Putin throws his forces relentlessly into the meat-grinder of Avdiivka, Mike and Ryan sort through the state of Russia's offensive there, Moscow's efforts to bleed Ukrainian air defense, and Kyiv's success on the Black Sea. They also discuss how Ukraine can defend and rebuild in 2024 so that it can go on the offensive again next year. Ryan and Mike also return to Europe's ongoing failure to muster the political will and resources needed to do its part. And listeners will be treated to a rant from Ryan on the turmoil over President Zelenksy's reported decision to fire Gen. Zaluzhny.

What is the value of a U.S. aircraft carrier? How are the Department of Defense and the U.S. Navy held to financial account? And why does the Department of Defense keep failing its audit? Ryan sat down with Russell Rumbaugh, Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Financial Management & Comptroller), to discuss the budget, its relationship with the comprehensive ship building review, the ongoing challenges with building more ships and submarines, and the need to ramp up munition production.

Should the tragedy of war with China occur, the Air Force will play a critical role in ensuring America is able to meet the challenges of conflict in the vast stretches of the Indo-Pacific. Gen. David W. Allvin, the 23rd chief of staff of the Air Force, joined the show to talk with Ryan about his priorities and how he is directing the Air Force to meet America's evolving national security needs by following through on the work of his predecessors. Listen to learn more about how Gen. Allvin views the future of training, logistics and refueling in contested airspace, the lessons from Ukraine, why he admires George C. Marshall, and more.

Nick sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss where the Russo-Ukrainian conflict stands at the start of 2024. They talked through the situation on the front lines, naval developments in the Black Sea and Russia's cynical diplomacy, as well as Moscow's growing munitions advantage and what went wrong with the Ukrainian offensive. Don't forget to listen to "All Quiet on the Second Front," an amazing new show that supported this episode to receive a promo code for a limited number of free War on the Rocks memberships.

In the last few days of 2023, the United States proposed that working groups from the G7 explore ways to seize $300 billion of Russian state assets. Given the news, we are re-releasing a members-only podcast with Philip Zelikow, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, which was recorded and released on Dec. 19, 2023. Aaron and Philip discussed the legal grounds to seize Russian assets held in Western banks, Moscow's potential retaliatory options, and whether a seizure would be escalatory. Consider joining our membership program today to listen to our slew of members-only podcasts and gain access to our daily newsletters.

Nick Danforth sat down with Steven Cook, Joyce Karam, and Faysal Itani to discuss how the war in Gaza will impact Israel's relations with the Gulf and American interests in the Middle East. Among other topics, they debated the future of the Abraham Accords and what options, if any, exist for governing post-war Gaza.

TechCrunch Disrupt hosted Ryan and a top-notch panel for a conversation on the increasing importance of commercial stakeholders in the exercise of military power in and from space. It features John Plumb, the first assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Mandy Vaughn, the CEO and founder of GXO, Inc.; and Gen. James H. Dickinson, the commander of U.S. Space Command. Listen to their discussion, which was recorded in September. Thanks to TechCrunch for allowing us to use this recording.

Ryan and Mike Kofman discuss the state of the war before turning to various other issues including important tactical adaptations since the start of summer, why Washington's theory of its involvement in this war is fundamentally "unworkable" due to a lack of military observers in country, the various meanings of "stalemate," and the big picture for next year.

Nick sat down in Tokyo last week with Satoru Mori and Yasuhiro Izumikawa to discuss the evolution of Japan's threat perceptions and defense planning. They also shared their thoughts on how Japan views the challenge posed by China, a potential Taiwan scenario, and the current conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.

The title says it all! If you missed episodes of our show "Net Assessment" over the summer and fall, you aren't alone. Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlow, and Christopher Preble join Ryan for a discussion about the show, about what's happening in the world, and what we can expect from Net when it comes back next month.

Now that the offensive launched by Ukrainian forces is possibly in the process of petering out, Mike Kofman shares some of his exploratory thoughts on where Ukraine stands and what 2024 might look like.

Continuing our series of conversations about issues at the intersection of defense and capital, Ryan chatted with Raj Shah of Shield Capital last month in San Francisco. From his service in the Air Force flying F-16s to his time as an entrepreneur to the Defense Innovation Unit-Experimental to his current work in venture capital, Shah has been a critical player in trying to maintain and grow the U.S. military's technological advantages.

Ryan spoke with the commandant of the Marine Corps, Gen. Eric Smith, about a range of issues from his forthcoming planning guidance to the future of force design to personnel and safety and beyond.

Ryan sat down with Mike to discuss the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia's effort to seize the initiative before winter begins, Moscow's turn to North Korea for artillery shells, the challenges the Ukrainian military may face next year, the Biden administration's failure to provide certain weapons to Ukraine quickly, and the state of the Russian military. Mike and Ryan close with a conversation about the need to be forward-looking about the conflict, given that the Russian defense industry has increased its rate of production, which will require the United States, its European allies, and Ukraine to plan for continued combat in the future.

Ryan sat down with John Amble of the Modern War Institute to unpack the challenges Israel is likely to face in Gaza; Israel's world-renowned urban warfare training facilities; comparisons with other battles in cities such as those that took place in the Iraqi cities of Fallujah and Mosul; and how the initial Hamas attack overwhelmed Israel's preparations to defend itself. John and Ryan close by reflecting on how three Islamist militant groups have shocked the world and armies that were, on paper, better prepared than they were: the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Islamic State in Iraq, and now Hamas in Israel and Gaza.