Volatility Views

Volatility Views 60: Jackass Investing: Don't Do It. Profit From It. Volatility Review: NASDAQ overview over the last month, since our last show. How low can the vol go? A buyers opportunity. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Mike Dever, Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management, and author of Jackass Investing: Don't Do It. Profit From It. He starts with his unique approach to volatility. Is it possible, given such broad correlation among asset classes, to be able to really diversify? The book says you can increase returns, while reducing risk at the same time. Is this preaching the wisdom of using derivatives? The "loser's concept." What does he say to readers who are concerned about the current state of regulation and oversight in options and derivatives? Crystal Ball: Looking ahead for the next month for NASDAQ vol and VIX.

Best of Volatility Views: Busting Skew Myths Busting Skew Myths! Does the Lottery Effect actually exist? Do flaws in the Black-Scholes model create skew? Were options traders prior to 1987 completely insane? Also, an exploration of the fundamental and psychological causes of Equity/Investment skew.

Volatility Views 59: A Deep Dive into Variance SwapsVolatility Review: VIX has certainly declined since the last show, with a pop happening only recently. NASDAQ vol rundown since last show. Apple's impact on the NASDAQ wasn't as big as expected. Volatility Viewpoint: Don goes over some of the math of variance swaps, including how they differ from vol swaps, variance and vega notional, convexity, and vol of vol.Listener Mail: Addressing Listener QuestionsVol Views Gang - Which will we hit first a VIX of 40 or 14? (Via Twitter from TEXASTEA)Why don't more brokerage firms allow you to quote options by vol levels instead of price/premium levels? You'd think this would be a very desirable feature, particularly to the type of educated clientele that listens to a show like Volatility Views. That's certainly a desirable clientele for a broker. I know I would certainly like that feature. Can you guys weigh in on this and hopefully help me spread the word for this feature among online brokerage firms. (On a side note - I can't wait for Volatility Views to get back to its regular schedule. I never thought I would be this excited for the end of summer.) (Via Facebook From Alex K., Tucson, AZ)Does the Volatility Views team feel that the new method for listing weeklies will lead to a reduced volatility of volatility in those products? Thank you very much for your fine program.(Via email from Alessandro Ropa, Barcelona, Spain) Crystal Ball: Looking ahead at the next month for VIX and NASDAQ Vol.

Best of Volatility Views: Larry the LegendIn this episode, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian are joined by Larry McMillan.Volatility Viewpoints: Larry McMillan, recent winner of The OIC's Sullivan Award, discusses how volatility derivatives have changed the landscape of vol trading. Larry waxes nostalgic on the days when there weren't puts on every stock. The virtues of upside VIX calls versus SPX puts to hedge a portfolio. Discussing the fine art of gamma scalping.

Best of Volatility Views: The Great Skew Debate Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility and skew with John Bilson, Professor of Finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology's Stuart School of Finance. Professor Bilson also proposes two new types of contracts for the marketplace.

Another selection from The Best of Volatility Views. In this episode, dated June 20, 2011, Mark and Don chat with Bill Luby, creator of the popular website VIX and More. They discuss the roller coaster volatility of late, whether the VIX has underperformed given current market conditions, whether VIX futures are essentially irrelevant, whether VIX should be marketed as a hedging tool, the inherent differences between implied and realized volatility, Euro vol updates, and much more...Read more: http://www.theoptionsinsider.com/radio/#ixzz1zVHYNY61 The Options Insider: Your Inside Source For Options Information

Best of Volatility Views: Volatility Discussion with Nobel Laureate Robert Engle Mark and Don have the honor of speaking with Professor Engle on various aspects of volatility, including: Professor Engle's move from physics to economics ARCH and GARCH models, and how the ARCH model was born The Volatility Institute Vlab SoFiE Professor Engle's work with the SEC's Flash Crash Advisory Committee The Professor's viewpoint on Dodd-Frank, particularly as it applies to derivatives & counterparty risk.

Volatility Views 58: Cracking the Bond Code Volatility Review: NASDAQ realized volatility makes a slight upward move, and until we get any evidence to the contrary, this action will likely continue. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Dr. Madhu Kalimipalli, Associate Professor of Finance and Director of the Financial Services Research Center at the School of Business at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Dr. Kalimipalli discusses:-His research, in which he looks at correlations between overall equity market vol and the treasury markets.-What kind of skews he sees in the bond markets insofar as implied volatility is concerned.-Which variable is preferable to use, VIX or the stock turnover, or both?-How the volatility of a particular underlying correlates to corporate bonds on the underlying.-If he finds a more exact bond spread relationship in the near-term as opposed to the long-term.-How actual equity or stock market volatility matters in terms of pricing when you throw in the liquidity factor. Crystal Ball: Greek elections on Sunday. Could send us off in any direction. The movement of volatility will creep back up to normal levels again.

Volatility Views 57: Turning the Tables on Mark Sebastian Volatility Review: VIX is back this week, after it ended unchanged at 0.0 before last week's Option Block episodes. Time will tell as we see what happens in Europe. NASDAQ one- and three-month realized volatility has had almost no movement at all, but the trend is surely upward. Volatility Viewpoint: Long-time panelist Mark Sebastian gets the chance to sit in the guest's seat and discusses what Option Pit is and the world of options education. Mail Bag: Answering listener questions.CBOE is in the process of changing the way they list weekly options. How do you think the change will impact weekly options volatility, as well as the way they perform? Thanks again and I love the show. You guys make my commute to work a little more bearable. (Via Facebook from Chris Monty) In a time spread, which risk/opportunity should I really focus on: gamma or vega? It seems like trading time spreads is essentially finding a proper balance between these two. (Via email from Theodore Johnson, Boise, ID) I'm and expat American currently living and trading in Germany. As an old-school options trader, I've always considered myself first-and-foremost a volatility trader. I mostly view my positions and I'm always looking for interesting new products like VolContracts, VIX, etc., that will provide me with a new way to hedge/trade volatility. When I moved to Frankfurt, I was very surprised to find that most of my European colleagues don't share that perspective. They aren't up on the latest vol products/research and don't tend to view themselves as vol traders. I've found this baffling so I thought I would write to the authority on volatility to see if I am completely nuts or if this is a well-documented situation. Is vol trading, and the interest in vol products, primarily a localized American phenomenon, or am I just hanging with the wrong crowd over here? (Via email from Charles Stephens, Frankfurt, Germany) Crystal Ball: We'll have to keep an eye on Europe, but expect little change in realized volatility. There will be a break in S&P in one direction or the other.

Volatility Views 56: More Listener Mail Fun Volatility Review: Broad selloffs across the markets, due to the poor jobless claims numbers. One-month realized volatility on the NASDAQ was up about half a percentage point to 17.40, and the three-month edged higher to 16.02. Reacting, rather than predicting, was the order of the day. Listener Mail: We're Going Listener Mail Crazy Again This Week How do you guys feel the addition of Facebook will impact NASDAQ volatility in the future? (Via Twitter from DAMIAN14)What's your opinion of Facebook's option vol and options trading so far? (Via email from Tim L. in Portland, OR) Any update on the NASDAQ VolContracts? (Via Twitter from EuroDJ) Is delta neutral hedging the only way to trade realized volatility in the options market right now (outside of VolContracts on the Euro, of course)? I like what you guys talk about every week and I'm looking for ways to capture that good ol' "realized vol." (Via Facebook from Steve K., Victoria, BC) I just wanted to write in to let you guys know that I love this show. Volatility Views is unique in the options podcast world. No one else is out there talking about the stuff you guys talk about or bringing on the guests you guys get. It truly is a fantastic, one-of-a-kind program. So thanks again for putting together such a great show. And Mark - thanks also for The Options Insider Radio Network. You truly are "the voice of options." (Via email from Dick Framingham - Rochester, NY) Mark "Voice of Options" Longo, Don "sold to you" Schlesinger and Mark "tinny seabass" Sebastian - I have a pressing question that requires your vast expertise. Why, in the name of God, does the VIX have a skew? Shouldn't that information already be represented in the SPX options or am I completely missing the boat on this? Thanks again and I love the network. That new Options Boot Camp show is fantastic. (Via Facebook from Tim Bond, Tulsa, OK) Why do you think so many attempts to bring OTC vol to exchanges have failed - CBOE variance, etc. (Via Twitter from AXEMAN74) I know you guys have talked about selling vol when others are buying. Like when a newsletter recommends buying a particular put, for example. How exactly do I execute that trade? Do I wait until late in the day when everyone is done buying, then sell that same option? Can I sell nearby strikes instead? What about the stock? Do I have to hedge delta neutral or one-to-one to really capture the vol premium? I am really interested in this strategy, but a little fuzzy on the actual execution. (Via email from Joe Eftes, Sacramento, CA) Crystal Ball: We could see 30 shortly in the VIX. All-time low for 10- and 30-year bonds. More volatility -- it's going to get worse before it gets better.

Volatility Views 55: Good Volatility, Bad Volatility Volatility Review: The play between pre- and post-election Greek volatility has seen big action. Ultimately though, the EU will let the Greeks decided their own fate. Andrew G. does not want to own pre-election juice. Given realized volatility, there has not been much change in the NASDAQ. The three-month realized vol has actually risen somewhat -- replacing volatility that was extremely low just a short while ago. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Andrew Patton, Associate Professor of Economics and Finance at Duke University. He is the author or co-author of several academic papers, including "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility." Prof. Patton discusses some of its findings, including the importance of directional movement in forecasting future volatility. Crystal Ball: In VIX, Andrew G. is just waiting for the Greek election to sell June, buy July, and unleash the time spread. NASDAQ one-month realized may roll over a little bit. The short term might be dropping more, but that is not a ringing endorsement.

Volatility Views 54: Listener Mail Extravaganza, Part Two Volatility Review: NASDAQ one-month vol came in a little bit, and at the same time the three-month vol went up slightly. The risk premium between implied and realized volatility has widened further. A crazy scenario of implied vs. realized volatility in VIX. Listener Mail: Mark, Don, and Mark take on listener questions. All of this talk about JP Morgan has left me wondering, what kind of derivatives hedge loses $2.3 billion? How is that even possible? Help me Volatility Views hosts, you are my only hope! (Todd Lundgren, Pittsburgh, PA) I Know Bob and Don are big fans of vol cones. How about a vol cone update on the major indices (VIX, NASDAQ, Euro, etc.) for your loyal listeners? Where should I be buying, or perhaps not buying VIX here? (TEDMAS via Facebook) Hey Don, what index is next from VolX after NASDAQ? Russell? Emerging Markets? Thanks. (Via Twitter from UNCLESTEVE) Mark is fond of calling NASDAQ "Apple Plus." I know he's joking, but it raises an interesting question about how much the Apple tail is wagging the NASDAQ dog? What percent of NASDAQ vol, or even vol of Vol, is directly attributable to Apple? I'm sure your listeners, me included, would like to know. Also, quick side question for Mark - Is there any way to buy Options Insider gear? I love the logo and I want to do my part to get the word out about the network. (Steve K., Oklahoma City, OK) Vol crew, why is the VIX term structure coming in so dramatically? The VIX ETPs and annuities are still net buyers of long-term vol. (Max Shreck, Atlanta, GA) Has the rise of weeklies rendered existing vol studies, and maybe even conventional vol wisdom, moot? (Via Twitter from Todd Dupres) Crystal Ball: We might start to see levels of realized vol taper off a bit in NASDAQ. The three-month vol of vol is actually lower than the vol of the S&P itself. VIX could reach 30 sooner than later. Bonds are in even worse condition.

Volatility Views 53: An Insider's View of Risk Management Volatility Review: There is an extra note of tension in the market with S&P vol waiting for the other shoe to drop. NASDAQ vol is slightly higher. JPMorgan news does little to rattle VIX. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Todd Petzel, the Chief Investment Officer at Offit Capital, sits down with Mark and Don, and discusses myriad aspects of volatility and risk management. Topics include:. The instruments he uses to manage portfolio risk. Structured VIX products. Go-to products. Financial investors and their lacking use of options. Pending regulations concerning position limits Crystal Ball: Sebastian sees the market bouncing around in the short term. A safe trade may be shorting U.S. treasuries. There is still a continued contraction between implied risk premium and realized vol levels. Vol may go higher, but without anything dramatic moving it.

Volatility Views 52: The Father of Financial Futures Volatility Review: Listeners from last week may remember Don made a timid prediction that the realized volatility of NASDAQ could be going a bit higher, and it managed to inch up a few basis points. It was a strong down week for equities. Since this selloff was gradual, the actual market volatility was not significant. Greek and French elections this weekend may fuel some volatility moves next week. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Dr. Richard Sandor, "the father of financial futures," and Chairman and CEO of Environmental Financial Products. Dr. Sandor discusses his new book "Good Derivatives," and his storied career. He distinguishes between regulated and unregulated derivatives, discusses what it takes to create a new market, and his involvement in the issue of acid rain. Crystal Ball: There may be an increase in realized volatility on NASDAQ in the next week. Putting a cap on volatility at 20%. Upcoming elections in both France and Greece.

Volatility Views 51: Risk Managers: The Adults in the Group Volatility Review: VIX options were absolutely crushed this week. Apple after earnings and its effect on NASDAQ vol. Don and Sebastian weigh in on VVIX. Volatility Viewpoint: Volatility Views welcomes back Euan Sinclair, author and risk manager at Bluefin Trading, to discuss risk management and his work on the barrier (or first time) method for calculating volatility. Euan gives a quick sneak preview of the updates to his book. The group also discusses Euan's opinion on vol of vol, and if the universe of ETPs has dramatically affected the vol of vol. Crystal Ball: Sebastian is looking at a 14-handle in the VIX and observed that S&P realized volatility was already in the 14s and would probably maintain those levels. Now that Apple's earnings are out of the way, what to look for in the NASDAQ? Getting close to the summer doldrums.

Volatility Views 50: Listener Mail Extravaganza Volatility Review: NASDAQ (aka Apple+) is starting to see a rise in realized volatility, as had been anticipated. VIX looks like it is settling back into a range, so we will have to see if it holds where it is or moves yet again. We seem to be in flux; there's no real trend here. Listener Mail: Via email from Tim Siffron, Lansing, MI.I love your show and the great guests you guys manage to wrangle, but I was a little out of my depth with last week's guest. It's been a while since I took a stats course, so your discussion of jump frameworks and stochastic volatility models for pricing OTC variant swaps was a tad out of my league. Can you give a quick, plain English summary of the take-aways from that discussion, for those of us who may have had trouble following along? Thanks and looking forward to the NASDAQ contracts. Via Twitter from Joe X4.Mark and Don: Who is your favorite Vol Views guest so far? Love the show. Via email from Aston VaLance, Hoboken, NJ.Mark L, Mark S and Don: Now that you are discussing NASDAQ vol on the show, do you find that it performs dramatically differently from S&P vol? If so, how much of that difference do you attribute to the relative dearth of NASDAQ vol products versus the explosion of S&P volatility ETPs? Mark L has said many times on the show that the VIX has many masters these days, not just SPX front-month volatility. On the flip side, it seems that NASDAQ vol only has one master. Are these various masters pulling the VIX in different directions from NASDAQ vol? Also, would the lack of NASDAQ vol ETPs "polluting the waters" make NASDAQ implied vol a more pure product from a volatility perspective? Via the Options Insider forum, from Captain Options.What causes VIX term structure? Mark L, Don and company: The Vol Views show has discussed the term structure of VIX futures many times in the past; most recently the emphasis has been on the incredibly steep slope of that term structure. I wonder if you could voice your opinions on what you think is actually causing such a steep slope in that product. As my handle suggests, I am more of an options guy than a futures guy, so I'm not particularly familiar with futures term structures and how they should work. I hope my question isn't too remedial for this esteemed panel. And Don, may I say, "Sold to you." Wow. That felt great! Crystal Ball: NASDAQ volatility at nearly historic lows, which Don predicts will rise over the short term. However, he did not say "buy 'em." Remember his motto re options: "Sell, or don't sell." Sebastian discusses shocking bond movement, earnings season, and Apple.

Volatility Views 49: How Best to Price Variance and Volatility Swaps Volatility Review: It's funny how it didn't take long for our prediction of a range-bound VIX to be proven wrong! The VVIX has been high. Is a tradable VIX of VIX in the works? What have the NASDAQ and SPX vol of vol six-month averages been? One-year? Don gives some remarkable numbers. Apple on the move downwards; some are eager to buy Apple at 600. NASDAQ vol cones, like most volatility readings, are at historical lows. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guests, Thomas Thorsen and Emil Stamp, are the authors of the master's thesis, "Pricing of Variance and Volatility Swaps in a Stochastic Volatility and Jump Framework." The gang discusses pricing models of OTC variance swaps, the different models the authors created, and the accuracy of the models for both forecasting realized volatility, as well as pricing of variance swaps and GARCH models in real-world applications. Crystal Ball: Are you still shorting the VIX? Are higher levels forecasted for the future? Perception versus reality.

Volatility Views 48: Masters of the VIX Volatility Review: Not much vol action to report with the markets closed on recording day (Friday). Steep contango in VIX futures has lessened in the past few weeks. Long holiday weekend volatility didn't fully come out of VIX futures and index options, which is highly interesting and unusual. Also an unusual situation -- unemployment numbers were released on a day when the market was closed. Don and Mark discuss contango. NASDAQ volatility update. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don are joined by David Palmer, Volatility Book Portfolio Manager at Hudson Bay Capital. They discuss the evolution of skew, the growing market of products tied to VIX, and how they're manipulating the underlying, the halting of TVIX share creation, OTC versus listed trading, volatility arbitrage opportunities, rational arbitrage, and hedging and downside protection. Crystal Ball: Nothing to rant about in S&P land, at least until we reach the next unknown unknown. Summer doldrums are coming. The impact of having such low levels of realized volatility.

Volatility Views 47: How Dynamic Volatility Can Reshape Your Portfolio Volatility Review: VIX review, with interesting corresponding elements relative to VIX and VIX skew. Monday massive overreaction to the market rally. NASDAQ vol review, driven by AAPL, which is slowing down a bit. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Bob, and Mark are joined by Peter Christoffersen, Professor of Finance, Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, and author of Elements of Financial Risk Management and a chapter in the forthcoming Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Prof. Christoffersen discusses dynamic volatility, the Sharpe ratio, and practical applications for the average investor. Mark asks Prof. Christoffersen whether it's possible to have a truly diversified portfolio without having some kind of volatility asset. He also discusses his research on skew and its impact on the underlying instrument. Crystal Ball: Looking deep into the murky ether of the future of volatility, Mark and Mark pontificate on the contango environment of VIX futures, with Sebastian seeing VIX staying between 14 and 17. Will AAPL vol come in? As AAPL goes, so goes the NASDAQ. There might be an increase in volatility post-Easter, with the beginning of earnings season.

Volatility View 46: Volatility Discussion with the Godfather Volatility Review: Slaughter of the VIX April future, with May poised for the same. Credit Suisse released more creation units and TVIX crushed long positions - going from 13 to 6.5 in a week. Euro vol review -- March 1- and 3-month contracts expired last week. NASDAQ vol update. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Bob, and Mark have the great pleasure to discuss volatility with the Godfather: Anthony Neuberger, Professor of Finance at Warwick Business School. The gang discusses his seminal paper, "The Log Contract and Other Power Contracts.” They also discuss tail risk and skew risk. Mark asks Prof. Neuberger if the market is correctly pricing in tail risk. Crystal Ball: Sebastian sees VIX staying between 14 and 16, with a lot of erosion in VXX. Watch out for contango. Euro vol is a coin flip right now. NASDAQ vol might be too expensive right now because of Apple.

Volatility Views 45: What Does Butter Have to Do with It? Mark is joined by Volatility Exchange CEO Bob Krause croquet courtside at the FIA Boca Conference. Volatility Viewpoint: Mechanics of the forthcoming Nasdaq VolContracts. Bob gives details on the genesis of the product, the formula, how it captures movement, the agreement with Nasdaq, the difference between VolContracts and other Nasdaq-based products, the specifications, the closing price, and more.

Volatility Views 44: Listener Mail Extravaganza Volatility Review: Vol is down and SPX is up. Even the news of the new iPad wasn't enough to boost the market. Don opines on Apple. Nasdaq vol still flat-lined. Euro vol -- the 1-month and 3-month March contracts expire soon. Listener Mail: Nasdaq VolContracts, TVIX, the nature of VolContracts, and avoiding the VIX.1. Will the new Nasdaq VolContracts be exclusive to the Nasdaq, like the Euro and CME, or multi-listed? 2. What's your take on the ongoing TVIX drama? Cause? Was it shady? Is TVIX done? 3. I'm new to the show, so I apologize if you guys have discussed this in earlier episodes, but I'm intrigued by the concept of VolContracts and how they work. Would the new Nasdaq products be normal futures and options in the truest sense? In other words, do normal strategies such as verticals, time spreads, etc. apply in VolContracts products? Or, do I need to relearn my trading fundamentals and apply some new concepts to fully capitalize on these instruments? 4. I hear you guys talking about the problems with using VIX as a proxy for SPX volatility: Poor settlement, too many masters affecting the VIX, etc. So instead of VIX, I'm thinking of getting a pure realized vol position using delta-neutral ATM straddles in SPY. The contract size is smaller, so it's easier for me to trade. As long as I make my hedges and adjustments accurately, this should be a vastly superior proxy for the true S&P volatility. Am I correct or am I nuts? Crystal Ball: Non-farms may be a non-event. Load up on VIX downside. Hopefully the Nasdaq vol can break out of this flat line and the other shoe will drop. Otherwise it's difficult to make any predictions.

Volatility Views 43: Are Weekly Options Ruining Volatility? Volatility Review: The VIX was gaining ground again, but became mired in a holding pattern. What was the cause of the influx of capital in TVIX? NASDAQ vol is still flat-lining. Euro vol review. Volatility Viewpoint: Sanjay Tolia of Bengal Capital is the featured guest. A great conversation included questions such as: Are high levels of correlation taking away from single-stock option trading? Are high levels of correlation taking away from running balanced volatility portfolios? Are VIX products good or bad for retail investors? Are weekly options good or bad for retail clients? Is their explosive growth good for the industry? Crystal Ball: Until people start hitting the bid or lifting offers, VIX levels are going to stay in this range. Expect a similar stall in NASDAQ. Don predicts that Euro vol expiration settlement price next week will be lower than the 10.27 of Thursday night, and will settle in the mid-9s.

Volatility Views 42: Pricing VolContract Futures: Part History, Part Mystery Volatility Review: Euro vol review. How has the Greek settlement affected Euro Vol? Nasdaq vol review. S&P’s overly dramatic brother, Nasdaq is an interesting beast these days. Many of the swings in the S&P are greatly exaggerated in the Nasdaq, due in part to the tech-heavy nature of the index. How has that played out from a vol perspective? Are we seeing the same degree of selloff in the Nasdaq vol? An explosion of volume recently in the T-VIX. There is something very interesting going on. Volatility Viewpoint: Don discusses a little about expected pricing of VolContracts — information he touched upon before, but needed some clarification. Listener Mail: Question 1: I know Mark has said several times in the past that the difference between retail options traders vs. pro options traders is that retail trades direction while professionals trade volatility. I wonder if you guys can elaborate on this a little more, as I'm a little confused by the distinction. Do pros implement different strategies? Different products? How do they trade volatility and how does that differ from the way retail trades options? Question 2: Nasdaq or SPX — Which has had the greatest "vol of vol" over the past few months? Crystal Ball: The continued discrepancy between the VIX futures and VIX cash — how will that play out? Will the Nasdaq continue to hover in this range, or will we see a turn south sometime in the near future?

Volatility Views 41: Breaking Open the Volatility Mailbag Volatility Review: SPX/VIX review — some level disparities between the VIX cash and the VIX futures. Euro vol is in single-digit territory. Nasdaq VolContract preview. Listener Mail: Comment on the Great Volatility Skew Debate, Don's comments on volatility, and questions about Nasdaq VolContracts. Crystal Ball: How will the disparity between VIX cash and VIX futures unwind? Where will Euro vol go next?

Volatility Views 40: Manipulating The VIX Volatility Review: Euro vol review. March Euro VolContract has an interesting phenomenon brewing — realized vol calculation is 7.93, and the inferred volatility is 10.84. How or where will they meet? Major correlation break in VIX/S&P 500. Volatility Viewpoint: Not afraid of controversy, the panel discusses the notion of VIX settlement price manipulation with Henry Schwartz, founder and CEO of Trade Alert. Crystal Ball: Short VIX going into the weekend, but then watch out for the unknown unknown. Don makes a shaky prediction that the Euro vol will dip lower.

Volatility Views 39: Redefining Normal Volatility Review: How low can vol continue to go? Dancing around 17 in VIX cash. We have finally reached perfect equilibrium. The last 22 trading days of realized volatiity was 6.73 for the S&P, the lowest Don has remembered since 1994. Lofty numbers have skewed people's ideas of "normal," and it's time to reassess the definition of it. Expiration day for the February Euro VolContract. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility correlation, overlays for equity portfolios, and several other uses for volatility products with Simon Acomb, from Acomb Financial Research, Ltd. Crystal Ball: Dipping into the murky depths of volatility. Mark S. sees a flattening of the VIX yield curve, and thinks it makes sense to isolate gamma and short VIX using S&P versus VIX futures. Don provides insightful Euro vol picks. Information on the volatility workshop that Simon discussed can be found here.

Volatility Views 38: The Great Skew Debate Volatility Review: What is going on with the VIX? How low can it go? Sebas sees VIX going to 16. Don gives a Euro VolContract update, noting the equity-like behavior (underlying increased, while vol dropped). Looking forward to the Nasdaq 100 VolContracts. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark, Mark, and Don discuss volatility and skew with John Bilson, Professor of Finance at the Illinois Institute of Technology's Stuart School of Finance. Professor Bilson also proposes two new types of contracts for the marketplace. Crytsal Ball: Right now, there are good opportunities to buy individual equity options because volatility is so low. Mark Sebastian uses AAPL as an example. The impact of the leverage effect. Don thinks that the vol levels on the Euro VolContracts look just about right.

Volatility Views 37: Volatility: How Low Can It Go? Volatility Review: Might we see VIX below 20 for some time to come? Euro vol up slightly since last week -- Bob Krause called it correctly. Two weeks to go in the Feb VolContract.Volatility Viewpoint: Don gets a chance to give his views on last week’s topics and talking points from Nikunj Kapadia, Associate Professor at the UMass Eisenberg School of Management. Mailbag: VolContracts on the NASDAQ!!!“Woohoo!! This is what I've been waiting for, a realized VolContract on an underlying that I actually trade. This is going to open up a whole new world of trading possibilities for me. I can't wait to short VXN and buy the realized Nasdaq product. I won't need to wait for Don to earn me an island in the Bahamas, I'll pick one up myself when I collect all that juicy risk premium. In all seriousness, I couldn't be more excited by this announcement. This will be an enormous development for VolX as well as for all the realized vol aficionados out there. As the book says ‘We are legend.’”Options on NASDAQ Vol Contracts“On the last show Bob Krause announced that VolX is planning to launch Vol contracts on the Nasdaq. He also said that you plan to launch the full suite of products on the Nasdaq VolContracts, including options. Now correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't the option be priced on an implied volatility basis? So essentially, you'd have an implied volatility instrument trading off a realized trading instrument. That is an intriguing scenario, but the inherent contradiction makes my brain hurt whenever I think about it for too long.” Crystal Ball: Vol could stay below 20 for a while, VIX futures are even on sale. Is volatility at 12 realistic for the Euro going forward?

Volatility Views 36: The VIX vs. Black Swan: Analyzing Tail Risk in the VIX Volatility Review: Another interesting week in general volatility. Although predicted to settle around the new mean of 23-25, VIX is down to 19. Where will it go next? CBOE has finally put out an adjustment to their settlement process. Euro VolContract review. Volatility Viewpoint: This week's guest, Nikunj Kapadia from UMass, sits down with Mark and Bob to discuss Black Swans, volatility pricing, tail risk, and buy-writes. Crystal Ball: VIX may be headed towards 19 from heavy pressure on VIX Jan and Feb futures. Could we really see an explosion to the upside? Big news at VolX!

Volatility Views 35: Aggressively Selling Volatility in the New Year Volatility Review: After a holiday hiatus, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian discuss and review current and upcoming vol in 2012. The $64,000 question: Why is vol getting crushed? What's happening in the Euro zone? Volatility Viewpoint: A grab bag of volatility topics in this viewpoint section, including: VIX futures--how they trade, the nature of their term structure, contango, etc., and actual realized vol in the market for the past year. Mailbag: Best method of volatility measurement? "I've just found this show on iTunes and I find it very enlightening. Thank you for producing a quality show on this topic. I'm relatively new to options and I'm looking to do some basic modeling to get a better handle on options pricing and performance, but I'm hung up on which volatility measurement to use in my model. Close to close volatility certainly seems easiest but I'm not sure if it would be accurate enough for my needs. Should I try for something intra-day or should I stick with the easy path? Thanks, John." Crystal Ball: Vol, S&P, VIX, EuroVol Contracts, and Jan futures--where are they moving this year? A few new contracts may be in the pipeline over at VolX.

Volatility Views 34: A Break from the Insanity Volatility Review: This was an intriguing week for volatility action. Strange week in the world of VIX, with it finally returning to "normal." The novel concept of being fully insured. The seasonality of VIX--general uptrend in market plus professionals taking money off the table equals a perfect storm in VIX. Euro VolContract updates--December one-month went out at 11.12, three-month at 12.84. Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don discuss volatility with Stephen Figlewski, Professor of Finance at NYU's Stern School of Business, founding editor of the Journal of Derivatives, and Director at the Nasdaq OMX Derivatives Research Project. Crystal Ball: VIX at a much more tolerable level, but Mark thinks it will vascillate in this "new mean" for quite a while. January Euro VolContract is fairly new, but volatility is forecasted to be lower going out. Click here to access the Salomon Center that Prof. Figlewski spoke about in Volatility Viewpoint. Prof. Figlewski's personal webpage is available here.

Volatility Views 33: The Art of Managing Volatility Volatility Review: VIX has been up and down around the 30-handle, but now it is time for it to begin to settle at a more normal level. Friday was quarterly expiration day in the Euro VoContract futures, with the front one-month and the December three-month going out. Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest, Chris Cole, Managing Director at Artimus Capital Management, sits down to discuss VIX options and futures, volatility doldrums, and the trading approach at Artimus. Crystal Ball: VIX is a coin flip with regard to both the long-term and short-term mean. The gang looks at the January one-month and March quarterly Euro VolContracts and their implied volatilities versus potential realized vol.

Volatility Views 32: Larry the Legend In this episode, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian are joined by Larry McMillan. Volatility Review: Last week saw a lot of volatility action. VIX downside positions are just starting to pan out. Are people buying insurance or are they buying gamma? Seasonal drain to volatility. Euro VolContract update--one week left to go in the front-month contract. Volatility Viewpoints: Larry McMillan, recent winner of The OIC's Sullivan Award, discusses how volatility derivatives have changed the landscape of vol trading. Larry waxes nostalgic on the days when there weren't puts on every stock. The virtues of upside VIX calls versus SPX puts to hedge a portfolio. Discussing the fine art of gamma scalping. Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating from the panel. The market will have trouble supporting current vol levels. Sebastian likes buy-write opportunities in gold right now. Larry still has a bullish bias to the market. With expiration week for the front month upon us, Don sees Euro vol settling at around 12.40-12.75.

Volatility Views 31: Live from Las VegasVolatility Review: It's been a rough week for the equity markets. With the weekend decay out, and the super committee's report due this week, is it time to buy or sell the VIX? Is leverage causing a rise in volatility? What's going on with the Euro FX VolContract, and what does realized volatility look like right now? What's the latest news on the Dec one-month VolContract?Volatility Viewpoints: Bob talks about the long-term future of volatility, the volatility of volatility, and how efficiency affects the market. Also, Bob discusses his initial thoughts of the article in Futures magazine written last week. Volatility Interview: Dan Cook, Director of Business Development at the Nadex Exchange, joins Mark and Bob in the interview segment.Crystal Ball: With the VIX at 33, we need the market to move 2% per day to pay for VIX. Is that possible, or are we looking at a potential meltdown? If we see the VolContract fall anywhere below 13%, should we be looking to get long FX vol?

Volatility Views 30: Epithet Etymology Volatility Review: Only four days into the new front month of December, we have a ton of volatility. Greece and Italy are leading the way, dictating how the market will trade day to day. Mark Sebastian's week in review. Is Europe ramping up or winding down? The trend of net unit buyers continues into today. Volatility Viewpoint: This segment was kicked off by an article in Futures Magazine, "Stock Market Trends and the Volatility Premium by Marco Erling. We felt the article would be right up the alley of Volatility Views listeners. Mailbag/Crystal Ball: WHERE ARE WE ON THE EURO VOL CONE? I know the guys over at VolX are big fans of the vol cones. I'd like to know where the Euro VolContracts currently fall on the vol cones spectrum. It sounds like they would be a screaming sell at these levels. Am I correct, and do the hosts agree? Until the VIX proves it can hold 30 and lower, it may be a good time to hold premium – good for gamma scalping.

Volatility Views 29: Other Volatility Indices Volatility Review: The VIX cash and the VIX, in general, have been on quite the roller coaster ride. With further concerns about Greece, and now Italy as well, the VIX bounced right back to the 32 level. Greece continues to set the Euro on fire. Don discusses the recent expiration of the front month November Euro VolContract. Volatility Viewpoint: Don discusses some of the hedging aspects of using VolContracts against options positions or equity portfolios, and some general logistical issues for listeners who are looking to add VolContracts into to their portfolio for the first time. Mailbag: Volatility on Other Indices. Hello Vol Views Crew: Love the show. Keep up the good work. My question concerns the viability of volatility products on indices other than the S&P. For whatever reason, none of those products have managed to attract volume or attention like the VIX, even when the ones that were created by the CBOE. To what do you attribute their failure? Is there something inherent to those indices to make them poor candidates for vol products, or is the S&P simply an ideal candidate for vol products? Thanks for your insight. Crystal Ball: With so much uncertainty coming out of Europe, how long will sentiment factor in vol remaining high? Can Euro volatility at 15% last for the rest of the month? Plus, Mark Sebastian's weekly outlook.

Volatility Views 28: Day-Trading VolContractsVolatility Review: Mark Sebastian's week in review. Euro vol a roller coaster ride recently -- two big moves during the first two and a half weeks pulled the one month Nov up and down.Volatility Viewpoint: Trading VolContracts intra-day, and some of the opportunities and mathematical applications inherent in this type of trading.Listener Mail: How Would You Update VIX?Hello: Since VIX is still the brand name for volatility with much of the investing public, I would like to know what tweaks/upgrades you would suggest for future iterations of the VIX.Crystal Ball: Euro vol outlook -- will we move lower from here? Also, Mark Sebastian looks into his crystal ball.

Volatility Views 27: Stealing the Mean Volatility Review: A bit of a roller coaster ride with the S&P 500 and VIX -- A general rally in the broad market and a resulting sell-off in the VIX going into this weekend. Don gives a review of the ever-unfolding and crazy world of Euro vol. Plus, Mark Sebastian's week in review. Volatility Viewpoint: A continuation of the discussion about skew, kurtosis, etc. Why don't we remove the mean in our volatility formula and why doing it this way is a better hedge for options traders. Listener Mailbag: Volatility Trading for RetailHi Guys: I imagine I am one of the many retail options traders who regularly tune into your program, even though much of it is way over my head. I've heard you guys discuss delta neutral trading in the past. My question is whether you think this is an appropriate strategy for retail options traders to adopt. Is it viable to trade delta neutral with a regular online brokerage account these days? Also, I know Mark Longo has said on previous programs that retail tends to be directionally oriented and professionals trade vol. I'm sure that's the case for a reason. Why do you think so many retail traders fall into the directional vs. vol camp? Thanks for the show. I'm learning something new every week -Facebook question from Dabney K, Ontario, Canada. New VolContractsDon's hinted at new vol contracts coming soon on equity indices. Will these utilize the same formula as the euro or will there be slight tweaks for the different underlyings? - Twitter question from Oseo Crystal Ball: Mark Sebastian weighs in on the upcoming week. Also, an outlook of Euro vol for the remainder of October.

Volatility Views 26: Live from FIA Chicago Taped live before a packed audience, Mark, Don, and Mark Sebastian are joined by Chris Strong, Director of Research for Liberty Funds. If you can imagine Crossfire meets Sports Center meets Fast Money, then you're half way to understanding how great this episode is.

Volatility Views 25: Skewness and Kurtosis Volatility Review: Metals and gold vol. Euro vol review: Don talks about the recommendations he had made to sell the Euro VolContracts a week ago Thursday, and where they settled this past Friday - a product rich in volatility. S&P, Nasdaq, and commodity vol review. Plus, Mark Sebastian's volatility review. Volatility Viewpoint: A quick primer on mean, median, standard deviation, skew-ness, and kurtosis of distributions, and why we don't remove the mean for vol calculations. Plus, explaining negative market skew-ness, leptokurtic behavior of stock prices, etc. As always, we keep it easy to understand and non-intimidating. Mailbag: Captain Options asks, "Given the explosion of popularity in weekly options, I'm curious if Mark & Don think there is room for short-term realized volatility products. Would a weekly realized vol product even make sense at this point given the short time frame of the product? Can you generate a worthwhile calculation of volatility in such a short time frame?" Crystal Ball: S&P, Nasdaq, and commodity Vol outlook. Euro VolContracts outlook. What's coming up at VolX and Option Pit?

Volatility Views 24: Precious Metals Volatility ExplosionVolatility Review: The markets are turning green after a recent sea of red. A huge sell-off in gold and silver -- the story here is that people are rolling out of gold and precious metals and keeping funds in cash to be in a position to buy the market when it reaches the bottom. VIX review -- volatility certainly got scary for a little while. Euro vol review. Mailbag: "I've been listening to the show for some time and have become intrigued by the concept of VolContracts. I think I have a decent handle on the differences between implied versus realized volatility and I'm ready to take the next step. But that's where I'm stuck. How do I trade VolContracts? I don't see them promoted or even mentioned by any brokerage firms. If I call or email my broker (Interactive Brokers), are they even going to know what I'm talking about? Do you have any brokers that you'd recommend for their expertise with VolContracts? Also, since they are listed by the CME and track realized vol of Euro futures, I assume that I will need a futures account to trade them. Lastly, are these listed on Globex so I can trade them electronically or do I need to put an order into a pit?" "Bob Krause advocated the use of volatility cones on a recent show, and I know Don has discussed them in the past as well. However, Mark made an excellent point in a recent episode that, in this environment, vol cones may not be the best barometer for where you should work your orders. It got me wondering if maybe there were certain market environments where vol cones were extremely useful, and other times, such as the current environment, when waiting for mean reversion is the quickest way to blowing out. Long Term Capital immediately comes to mind. I'm wondering what you guys think on this issue. I think I know where Mark stands, but I wonder where Don falls on this since I know he is an ardent fan of vol cones." Crystal Ball: Metal vols -- have we just witnessed the bottom of gold and silver? Mark Sebastian predicts VIX to hit 50 in the next three weeks. We are halfway through the Oct VolContract, and as of Thursday the contract settled at 15.87 -- you would need 18 volatility on the Euro, going forward, to justify that price.

Volatility Views 23: Can You Eat Risk-Adjusted Returns?Volatility Review: VIX futures vs. VIX cash -- many long-dated contracts predicted the sell-off in VIX cash that is now materializing. Bond vol has been crazy, and bonds themselves have been very expensive. Implied and realized volatility. Volatility Viewpoint: Don takes this viewpoint segment to discuss the ideas and principles behind the Kelly Criterion. Crystal Ball: With the VIX in decline, as it moves toward the prediction given by long-term futures, will it dip and then turn back to the upside? An outlook of Euro vol -- with the period of arb availability gone, can we find a new relationship to exploit?

Volatility Views 22: Bringing Don to the Dark SideVolatility Review: A broad market volatility review – it's been another volatile week. The market sold off in the wake of a European central bank resignation. Euro vol review – where did Mark and Don's wager close out? Do they have enough for a private island in the Bahamas? Plus, OptionPit.com's Mark Sebastian gives his review of the week. Volatility Viewpoint: In this combo Volatility Viewpoint/Listener Mail segment, Mark and Don answer a question from the Options Insider Forum: "I enjoyed the conversation last week between Mark and Bob about the Volatility Feedback Effect. They mentioned that Don is not a fan of this theory and that Bob and Don have had many fights on the subject. I'm curious what Don's issues are with this concept and what he feels is the truth on the matter." Indeed, Don gets his rebuttal, and gives his two cents about the volatility feedback effect. Crystal Ball: Mark Sebastian's outlook for the coming week, as well as an outlook of S&P 500 volatility and Euro vol.

Volatility Review: A review of SPX, VIX, and pricing the weekend out. Non-farm payroll: what was the impact on vol? Euro vol review. How did Mark and Don's gentlemanly wager on three- and one-month vol fare from last week? Plus a live Vol Review from OptionPit.com's Mark Sebastian. Volatility Viewpoint: Volatility Exchange CEO Bob Krause talks inverse correlation - is this specifically to address the VIX negative correlation perception? How can we tell if the market is bullish or bearish? Skew and the somewhat controversial topic of the volatility feedback effect are also on the docket. Is the market trying to forecast future returns? As volatility rises, the market must fall, but does it work the other way as well? Listener Questions: Mark and Bob reach into the dark recesses of the mailbag. Why exactly is selling a three-month VolContract not the same as selling three consecutive one-month VolContracts? Is it analogous to the difference between writing a three-month option vs. three consecutive front-month options? Crystal Ball: An outlook of SPX & VIX. Could we pick up a free weekend on Friday? Euro vol outlook - How will the one- and three-month VolContracts fair?

Volatility Views 20: Divergence & Convergence Volatility Review: A rundown of VIX, Euro VolContracts, and the equity markets. Interestingly, we have the simultaneous expiration of both the one- and three-month products, so what does their discrepancy in implied volatility suggest? Mark Sebastian gives his volatility review. The Mail Bag: Don and Mark reach into the mail bag and answer listener questions. 1. Can gamma scalping/hedging be the cause of, or catalyst for, the recent massive down days in the market? Submitted by: Jersey Boy2. The CBOE has had S&P 500 variance contracts available since 2004. Why have VT and VA never taken off and how does VIX remain the volatility hedge of choice with all of its quirks? Submitted by: ZPF3. I'm eagerly looking forward to more guests. Who do you have on tap for future shows? Submitted by: Complete Beginner The Crystal Ball: An outlook on the Euro vol. Will there be a convergence of the one- and three-month products? Mark Sebastian looks into the crystal ball for the coming week.

Volatility Review: Volatility contracts have calmed a little - a surprise given what the recent history for the previous contacts has been. A rundown of the weekly VIX, Euro VolContracts, and the equity markets. Plus Mark Sebastian gives his volatility review. Volatility Viewpoints: Special guest Euan Sinclair author of several books including "Option Trading" and "Volatility Trading" and risk manager at Blue Fin Trading discusses measuring volatility. Euan's concept of barrier method or first exit time method vs. the standard close-to-close method.Crystal Ball: An outlook on the Euro vol; Mark Sebastian looks into the crystal ball for the coming week.

Volatility Views 18: The Chicago WayVolatility Review: Volatility has been on quite the roller coaster since the last show. A rundown of the weekly VIX/Volatility as well as the Euro Vol. Plus Mark Sebastian gives his volatility review. Volatility Viewpoint: Special guest Dan Keegan from the Chicago School of Trading discusses teaching the newest crop of traders. Commodities - the sexy world of ags and metals. Delta neutral vs. realized vol. The Crystal Ball: An outlook on the Euro Vol. Also Mark Sebastian looks into the crystal ball for the coming week.

Volatility Views 17: Busting Volatility Skew MythsVOLATILITY REVIEW: The debt ceiling deal and its effect on the market. Euro VolContracts trading on the CME. VOLATILITY VIEWPOINT: Busting Skew Myths!!!! Does the Lottery Effect actually exist? Do flaws in the Black-Scholes model create skew? Were options traders prior to 1987 completely insane? Also, an exploration of the fundamental and psychological causes of Equity/Investment skew. CRYSTAL BALL: An outlook on the weekend risk- What could happen? PLUS: Mark Sebastian gives his forecast for the coming week.

Volatility Views 16: Risk PremiumVolatility Review: Interesting week with the market not doing much, but volatility increased anyway. The market's "in a pickle" until the debt issue is resolved. July 8 was the fifth expiration for the Euro VolContract, which showed greater than 29% movement in the price during the life of the contract. The August contract has provided 16% vol movement in the first three days of the contract.Listener Mail: Mark and Don answer questions from listeners, including: Why did an option price drop as the stock price went up, and; what is a sellers' premium in options?Crystal Ball: Mark foresees no debt deal over the weekend. If anything can push VIX to 30, will this be the event that does it? Front month Euro vol likely to go lower.