Volatility Views

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: Interesting Vol activity this week. Volatility remaining firm going into the weekend VVIX: 96.18 CBOE Skew Index back to boring - This week: 139.16 VIX Options: Heavy volume early in the week. 1M contracts on Monday, 800k contracts on Tuesday. Light volume the rest of the week. Total 5.19m (3.77m calls, 1.42m puts) Gold: GVZ this week: 17.57 Crude oil: OIV: 42.30, OVX: 43.75 Volatility Voicemail: Listener qquestions and comments Question from Hawkeye - Love seeing Russell as the new addition to the Vol Views cast of characters. You mentioned you wanted a nickname for him. Since he is going for his Phd (but has not quite gotten it yet), he teaches classes for the OIC, and he literally wrote the book on VIX, how about calling him "Professor VIX" (and maybe moving to "Dr. VIX" once he gets his diploma). I also wanted to say that it was great hearing Don "Palms out" Schlessinger a couple shows back. You need to get him on as a guest host more often, and see if the Viceroy can guest host once in a while, too. Lastly, I love hearing from those Typhon guys. Any time you can get them on, please do so. Anybody with the comedic sense to name their trades "mullet" and "tellum" is good in my book. Wit with Wisdom is the best mix. Thanks and keep the great shows coming. Question from TiffanyL1 - Is it possible to simply buy VIX cash without messing with the futures? Question from George T. - Can I buy still buy VIX on the old calculation without the skew? Crystal Ball: Meandering VIX. Earnings season winding down. Fed on horizon in December.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash - VIX popping after a protracted downturn - Over 20 briefly. VVIX: 98.19 VIX Futures - CBOE Skew Index back to boring. Last week: 135.21, this week: 136.93\ VIX Options - A very light volume week. Total 7.98m (5.73m Calls, 2.25m Puts) Earnings Volatility - A tale of two earnings seasons: CSCO: $27.94. ATM Straddle: $1.40 - approx. 5% Gold - GVZ this week: 18.47, GVZ last week: 17.69 Crude Oil - OIV: 43.14, OVX: 43.93 Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their day Question from JJL - After listening to your program I have decided to take a look at VIX weekly options. But I am looking at the quotes right now and the weeklies are significantly wider. The VIX Nov 26 calls are $.05 wide, the Dec 26 calls are $.10 but the Nov 26 weekly call is $.15 wide. Strange that a nearer-term contract would be substantially wider than a farther off contract on the same strike. You guys have been talking about VIX weekly volume being high so why are the spreads so wide? Do you think it is worth the approximately 33% increase in cost to trade a weekly vs. a standard monthly? Thanks for the show. Keep up the good work sirs and welcome aboard to russell. Question from Pick6 - When a takeover is announced does the volatility (time value) of farther out options erode or go away? Crystal Ball: Earnings season is in full swing. Fed on the horizon in December.

Today, Mark is joined by: Mark Sebastian, from Option Pit Russell Rhoads, Senior Instructor, the Options Institute Kevin Nichols, Director, CBOE LiveVol Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective, including: Non-farm numbers and the resulting market reaction Bifurcated earnings season A less volatile VIX? SKEW index Earnings crush VIX weekly options Is there a new 12 for VIX? Put love in VIX-land Mark S. extrapolates VIX weekly trading for the past seven years Earnings! The force is strong with DIS. Crude: WTI Skew Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Adam S.: Hello, is there a correlation between imp vol and move in the stock before earnings? I noticed that aapl imp vol is still 33% even though they will report on Tuesday. Does that imply there will be a small move? Nflx was in the 80s and it moved 10%. I sold put and still made money. Would you sell strangles otm to benefit from vol collapse? Question from Pick6: Are there too many VIX-related products? Have any of them ever failed? Crystal Ball: Earnings season! What will the Fed do in December?

Volatility Review: Today's guest is guest: Russell Rhoads from the CBOE Options Institute. The panel discusses: CBOE Earnings Update - Trading volume increases 6 percent, with record trading volume in index options and futures. Total trading days: 64. ADV: 5.25M, Total Trading Volume: 335.7M. Update on TYVIX & RVX. VIX Cash: VIX cash remains south of 15 handle. VIX Futures: Dramatic movements in CBOE Skew Index. Two weeks ago: 151.22, last week: 121.02, this week: 134.63. Previous high around 140 last year. VIX Weeklies - Week 4: Another robust volume week for weeklies VIX Options: Total 6.76m (4.80m calls, 1.95m puts) Gold: Fed squeezing gold yet again. GVZ: 15.77 Crude Oil: OIV: 43.16, OVX: 43.63 Crystal Ball: Earnings season in full swing. Nonfarms next Friday.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: Volatility erosion continues as VIX slips below the 16 handle - Low of 13.24 today. The volatility measure has been below 20 for 12 straight days. Skew Index: A dramatic 30-point drop in The CBOE Skew Index - Last week: 151.22, this week: 121.02 VIX Weeklies: Another robust volume week for weeklies. VIX Options: Paper buys 15k Nov 16 puts for $1.55 and 13k Nov 30 calls for $.34; Total 6.26m (4.43m Calls, 1.83m Puts) Now that Google is Alphabet, options suggest another big stock move. Gold: GVZ: 15.59 Crude Oil: OIV: 40.18, OVX: 40.22 Volatility Voicemail: What do our listeners have to say? Comment from Frank W. - Great discussion on the origins of volatility skew. I really learned a lot. I wish more programs would discuss these topics. Comment from Phil O. - What is it about volatility that tends to bring out the crazies? That stuff about VIX mean reversion and moral hazard was pretty deep into tinfoil hat territory. Surprised to hear that coming out of Artemis. Comment from mark brant ‏- What a relief! Btw fantastic story of the Vol skew big bang by Herr Doktor Schlesinger! A perfect collar is a work of art! Thanks!… Cool thing about selling VIX options spreads is no theta, a pure Vol play at all tenors! Question from Ironc - So Taleb and the 1x2 guy both love backspreads. Are backspreads pretty much the ideal volatility trading position? They have little or no net outlay and let you stay in the game long enough to profit from the big moves. I have to say I am becoming a fan. Are there any secret downsides that I am missing? Question from Varz - Any good recommendations for variance swap volume data? Question from Dan D. - Can you please explain the CBOE skew index? What is it and what does it measure? Thank you Crystal Ball: Earnings season has begun. Will we stay below 20 for the next week?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: Volatility erosion continues as VIX slips below 16 handle. VIX on a downside streak - sold off for nearly 10 straight days Zero Hedge back on the soapbox - Moral Hazard, "Supernormal" VIX Swings, And Why August 2015 Was Just An Appetizer VIX Weeklies: Another robust volume week. VIX Options: VIX Nov 25-30 Call spread papa buys about 7k. Paper "buys" 15K Nov 15 puts. Total 9.58m (6.23m Calls, 3.35m Puts) Crude Oil: OIV - 42.28, OVX - 41.99 Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their say. Question from Agave - Is it true that volatility skew was born out of the 1987 crash and did not exist previously? I heard that recently and it seems difficult to believe.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: The streak is done - VIX firmly below 20! VIX Weeklies finally join the party - decent volume for the first day. A theory of why the VIX sputtered on Aug 24. VIX Options: Some early call selling during the rallies - but primarily more VIX upside call buying. Gold: GLD continues to dive. Crude Oil: OIV - 43.98, OVX - 42.97 Vol Voicemail: Listeners weigh in Question from Nigel B - How are crude options and volatility looking with this rally toward 50? Lots of call love? Question from Alamut01 -SPX sells off over 2% last week and VIX barely budges. What up? Question from IVUP - Can you please give us a status update on the Voldex products particularly a release date? Question from Agave - Is it true that volatility skew was born out of the 1987 crash and did not exist previously? I heard that recently and it seems difficult to believe. Crystal Ball: Earnings season has begun. Will we stay below 20 for the next week?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. Moving up the list - 28 days over 20 in the VIX Cash. VIX Options: A relatively light volume week - 500k contracts most days except for 9/30 - our 1x2 friend is back! VIX: Total 7.77m (4.80m Calls, 2.97m Puts) SPX: Spot Price = 1920.70. Puts/Calls = 2.53. GLD: Spot Price = 108.90. Puts/Calls = 0.40. Crude Oil: OIV - 44.81, OVX - 44.75 Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their say. Comment from Mark Brant - Being afraid of selling W1 IV is just wrong! We are traders, not market makers! Gamma cannot hurt us selling tight Vertical Spreads! Question from Noodles - VIX the tail or the dog? Hello Vol squad. I was just talking with a few of my trading buddies (all VIX options traders) and they were complaining that VIX does not represent SPX volatility anymore. They said that it is its own beast now because so many people are just trading VIX and VIX products and not SPX. I thought I would put it to the Vol pros to settle the debate. Incidentally, I also turned them on to your program in the process. Bonus points for me. Your insight would be appreciated. Comment from Joe S. - With regard to the listener who wrote in looking for a good quick Vol calculator - I find the Greeks breakdown on TOS to be particularly informative for my trading. Maybe he should try a paper account there to see what he thinks. Hope that helps him out. The Crystal Ball: Wild prognostication

Volatility Review: Speaker of the House John Boehner steps down. Janet Yellen and the Fed. VIX Cash. VXUP/VXDN. GLD. Oil. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Iron flies Getting tchotchkes Tick-by-tick calculator What drives the VIX? Crystal Ball: The challenges of prognosticating.

Volatility Review: A look back on the week from a volatility perspective. What happened post-Fed? VIX remained elevated going into Fed announcement VIX, VVIX Advice offered to the Fed Irrational exuberance abides VIX Cash making waves, VIX options, not so much Weekly VIX options can’t come soon enough The madness that is VXUP and VXDN RVX and VIX still within spitting distance of each other Mark has opinions on the Goldman Sachs research team Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Quadruple witching: does it impact option volatility? Product question on: VXST, VolDex Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognosticating

Volatility Review: A look back on the week from a volatility perspective, which includes: VIX Cash RVX VIX Options VXUP VXDN And the Fed Volatility Voicemail: In which listeners have their say Question from Mr. Rose - On 8/21/15, S&P lost 3.19% and VIX is up 8.89 points. Following Tuesday S&P down 2.96%, VIX up only up 2.38 points. Next Wednesday S&P up1.83%, VIX drops 5.31 points. Please explain. Question from Confused - Hey, is there an overwhelming biased to trading calls in the VIX? Why? What about VIX puts, does anyone trade them? Question from Jacob - What are some examples of basic volatility arb strategies? Thanks for the program. Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication

Volatility Review: A look back at the week in volatility VIX Cash: Looks like we were right - VIX cash remains elevated over last week level. Goldman Sachs thinks this volatility index should be much lower. The VIX is trading like the U.S. is in a recession. VIX Futures: Near term of the futures backward, as expected. Contracts are wonky. Bids popping up in unexpected places. VIX Options: Sept. 1 - 1.5M Contracts, Sept. 2 - 791K Contracts, Sept. 3 - 1.1M Contracts VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (XIV) has accumulated $1.1 billion in net inflows, according to ETF.com. VXY: Additionally, over the past two weeks, the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF brought in $540.3 million in net inflows and now has $599.9 million in assets under management. Crude Oil: Crude market full of volatility and uncertainty. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Comment from Mark Brant - Thanks for sharing the VIX 1x2 call swap roller trader and repeating it until we get it! A super great VIX strategy! Question from Jay G. - Is the interest in VIX options mostly institutional, or is retail there too? Question from Peter R. - Mark, thanks for doing the free webinar. Trying to educate myself regarding VIX. Please answer why if there is backwardation in the VIX term structure is the VXX not trading close to 3 times higher than the VIX? Thank you.

Volatility Review: Black Monday Redux The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly slumped more than 1,000 points, its biggest point-drop ever. VIX Cash hit 53.29 at 10am and VIX did not update for 30 Minutes as options quotes got erratic. AAPL hit low of $92 before rebounding. VVIX: Hit a high of 212 on Monday 8/24. VXUP/VXDN: VXUP did 813k shares on Monday - VXDN 650k. Crude Oil: OVX - 51.80, OIV - 51.12 Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Inchon55 - Was this the week that VIX traders have been waiting for? It seems like they have been buying calls in the 20-strike range all summer with no payoff. Now we finally got the pop they needed. Will this lead to a flurry of more call buying in the months to come? Question from Jim J - Question for Volatility Views - This was a crazy week for Vol traders. What was the craziest thing that jumped out at you? Comment from JoeJoe: Why is everyone making such a big deal about the selloff on Monday? Flash crash? Market manipulation? That is BS! It is August. Everyone knows the market is thin in August. Does this really come as a surprise to anyone?

Volatility Review: Mark Sebastian guest hosts and is joined by Bill Luby, of VIX and more. Ugly day, week, month. What does it all mean? Serious interest in VIX options. Volatility Viewpoint: How to structure a trading strategy around this kind of market? Should you look at volatility products in a vacuum? When will the Fed actually pull the trigger on rates? Crystal Ball: What is the driver that will push us into a full-on selloff or rally? What is the normal duration of a major VIX pop? Will Jared own Mark a steak?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective China devalues the yuan. Why is there no volatility in response? It all comes out in the wash. AAPL flirting with a big move to the downside. Put volume averaging 618,000/day. AAPL a utility? What's the Fed going to do? The week in VIX options. Strong volume for the week: 1.6m contracts Monday 8/10 1.4m contracts on Wednesday 8/12 835k contracts Thursday 8/13 VSTOXX: Channeling Don S. Crude Oil: Eyeing the continued dive in oil prices. OVX: 43.23 OIV: 44.49 Gold: Gold Storm on the Horizon Crystal Ball: Diving boldly unto the breach and making reckless volatility predictions.

Volatility Review: A review of the week from a volatility perspective. Volatility continues through earnings season - Disney and Tesla hit hard. VIX Cash: 14.13 - Some juice coming back into the balloon. VIX Futures: 12.16 - not as controversial as main VIX settlement. VIX Options: Decent volume week - 770k contracts Monday. Total 7.95m (5.89m Calls, 2.05m Puts). Crude Oil: WTI term structure - West Texas Intermediate is heading for its biggest monthly fall this year. Gold: A prominent gold forecaster predicts the metal will drop to a mere $350 an ounce, a level unseen since 2003. Gold Implied Vol: 12.1% as of July 14, 2015 and up to 18.8% on July 21, 2015 Volatility Voicemail: listener questions and comments Question from Antimony - Question for the Vol Squad. Have you had a chance to look over the list of latest index products launched by the CBOE? Any contenders? Personally I think the weekly revamps of put and BXM have promise, along with the 30-delta BXM. Question from Tommy Hendricks - What is your take on weekly VIX Futures so far? Hit or miss? Crystal Ball: Our future vol predictions.

Volatility Review: In this episode, we are joined by guest co-host Mark Shepherd, Derivatives Strategy Consultants. VIX Cash: VIX selloff finally over - VIX cash stabilized around the 13 handle this week. VIX Futures: New weeklies listed this week. VIX Options: Calls over puts: 2.9 / 1. Solid volume week - most days over 600k contracts. Total 5.83m (4.35m Calls, 1.48m Puts) Gold: GVZ: 19.39 - Spiked nearly 5 handles this week. Gold volatility skew - clear concern in the near term, longer-dated options showing some bullish positioning as well. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments. Question from LAX66 - Do you guys know where I can find a list of the pensions and endowments that utilize options and futures for hedging purposes? I would like to see if my money is safe and being put to good use. Is that info publicly available? Question from Bailiwyck - I would like to submit a question from the volatility views radio program. What is the problem with GVZ? Why are there no products to trade with it? I looked it up earlier this week only to find zero contracts traded. Did they delist them? You would think this product would be very popular in a week like this. Question from TalbotL - Let me see if I have this straight. The front end of the VIX curve is where all the crazy stuff happens. So I want to avoid that in my hedges and "kick the can" past it. The longer portion of the VIX curve is where things typically get pricey. So am I correct in assuming that somewhere in the midpoint - around 3 months - is the goldilocks spot where I should buy my porridge? Is that the most effective place to purchase VIX futures for hedging from a cost to vega perspective? Crystal Ball: Wild prognostications about the future of volatility.

Volatility Review: Today's guest is Mike Thompson, Typhon Capital VIX Cash: An apocalyptic week for VIX - Largest 5-day drop in the product history. VVIX: 85.55 - Back at the low end of recent range. VIX Futures: Keeping an eye on the term structure. Weekly VIX Futures coming next week, finally! VIX Options: Calls over puts 3.1/1 - a strong volume week. Total 9.00m (6.79m Calls, 2.21m Puts) Oil: After some brief signs of life, oil volatility continues to erode. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Al Parasian, Oakland, CA - What is the most effective way to speculate on a true volatility explosion in the marketplace? Is it straight up VIX calls or is there a more effective product? Question from ENV16 - I searched for volatility programs on a lark using PockectCast. Did not think I would find anything. Man, was I surprised when your show came up. What a treat! 100+ episodes! I have been sinking my teeth in all week. Any chance you could bring on a guest who specializes in OTC variance swaps? That is a market that has always interested me, but it is hard to find good color on it. Other than that, please keep up the good work and to Russell for bringing us this show. One more quick thing - you guys talked about how a VIX of one is all but impossible. What do you feel is the realistic upside limit of VIX? We saw it hit the 90s during the meltdown. Is that it or is a VIX of 200 a possibility one day?

Volatility Viewpoint: The guest today is Scott Maidel, Derivatives Research, FTSE Russell Investments. He discusses: His viewpoint on current volatility landscape VIX spot level - Did VIX cash perform as expected? What are volatility strategies? How to talk about volatility mechanics and characteristics with clients? Updates on current and pending Russell volatility products Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Performance vs Market expectations. VVIX: Hovering around 115. VIX Options: Decent but not a strong volume week. Total 7.71m (5.89m Calls, 1.82m Puts) Crude Oil: Volatility creeping back into crude. Crystal Ball: Peering over the market precipice. Earnings season ahoy. Volatility prognostication.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: VIX poised to start moving aggressively again? VVIX: Hovering around 85 - near the low end of its 1-year range. VIX Options: Back to light volume - all sessions below 500k. 3.8/1 Calls over puts. RVX: OI 62 contracts. VXUP / VXDN: Light week here as well - VXUP most days well under 30k shares, VXDN under 5k shares. VSTOXX: Flirted with a 5-month high of 27.5 earlier this week. Crude Oil: Crude Vol creeping lower. OVX - 29.18, OIV - 29.36 Rates: TLT Aug IV = 16 - Has not changes much over the past month. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Nick James - Tuned in last week for the first time and heard the discussion on volatility products, and particularly the AccuShares VIX products. I have been intrigued by this product and found your conversation interesting. It sounds like you take a dim view of it and would recommend against me buying shares of the VXUP version. How would you fix it if you could? Question from St. James - How low can VIX go? You guys said on a recent show that a VIX of 1 was not realistic. So what is a realistic low for VIX? Question from Encore - I am a fan of bullish risk reversals or collars in the equity and index world, due to the volatility premium inherent to the puts. It looks like that similar strategy is not as effective in VIX Options and most volatility products. The volatility premium is in the call, so most bullish risk reversals end up costing a net debit rather than generating a credit. So, should I take this to mean that I should flip my strategy to employ bearish risk reversals instead in volatility products? Do they tend to be more effective, or are the call premiums merited in volatility products?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective June VIX settles at 14.67 VIX Futures: Front month down to 15.15 VIX Options: VIX call/put = 3.9 - getting more attention again. RVX: OI 61 Contracts VXUP / VXDN VSTOXX: Hit 5-month high of 27.75 on Monday ahead of the emergency meeting on Monday. VSTOXX vs. VIX Spread widened this week with VIX crisis. Crude Oil: OVX: 30.60; OIV: 30.46 Rates: TLT Aug IV = 15 - Has not changed much over the past month. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Tasty Meatballs - What is your take on the new TYVIX index disseminated by the CBOE? Question from Jarvis - This is for the volatility views radio program. There are a lot of players entering the volatility ETF world. Some offer ratio products, inverse products or the new wave of spot products. I would like to know if there is a certain type of ETF or a certain area of the market that you think is ripe for a new volatility product. Question from Azon - How does VSTOXX perform relative to VIX? Just as call heavy? Similar pops to the upside? Crystal Ball: VIX pop? Buyers to come when the deadline looms.

Volatility Review: Greek vol not amounting to much. Setbacks in Greek debt talks on Friday bringing a little vol back to the marketplace. Traders aggressively hitting volatility going into the weekend. VIX Cash: High of 15.74 on June 9. VIX trending lower throughout the week finally breaking the 13 handle on Thursday. VIX Options: Call love - a heavy volume week, averaging 500k contracts. A massive day on Wednesday - nearly 1.6M. Our 1X2 friend is back! Total 8.13m (6.48m Calls, 1.65m Puts) VIX Up/Down: Nascent VIX Up/Down ETF Could Face Hedging Pressures Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Nixy - Just found this hose on iTunes and liked the discussion about the new VIX ETPs. I am curious what you think of the CVol ETF product? Worth my time or more volatility detritus? Comment from Abstergo_US - Great discussion on VXX leap puts. After listening to your program, I pulled up the VXX options chain and pulled the trigger on the Jan 2017 12 puts for around $2 in my IRA. Fast forward a few weeks and these puts are already up well over 10%. Thanks again for the great tip. Seems like everyone should be loading up on these things. Crystal Ball: Reckless prognostication.

Volatility Review: An action packed week on the market - shrugging off the non-farms. VIX Cash: Major indexes selling off over 1% Thursday. VIX Options: A big call stupid going up in June/July 20s. VXUP/VXDN: VXDN not catching fire like the VXUP Crude Oil: OIV & OVX IMF: The Mark-Jared bets continues. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Skew: What is it? Should it exist? Why does it exist? Around the Block: Summer VIX is back in season.

Volatility Review: The week in review, from a volatility perspective Some action earlier this week as S&P dropped over 1% and VIX popped to the 14 handle. VIX Futures: Front month future flirted with 15 during the selloff. VIX Options: Anemic volume week post-holiday - only 63k contracts through 11am. Still mostly call buyer in June - primarily VIX. Total 6.06m (4.73m Calls, 1.33m Puts) VXX: Puts trade in iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term ETN (VXX) are up 0.34 to 19.02 today. VXX is near the lower end of the 52 week range. VXST: Volume: 0, OI: 4. VXST will be replaced by VIX weeklies probably by the end of the summer depending on VIX weekly approval and launch. Crude Oil: OIV: 33.04; OVX: 32.5 Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Aeschylus - One thing I cannot understand clearly is why there is so much focus on the volatility smile. Given my knowledge of the Black and Scholes model, this is what I get: People use the volatility smile as a forecast of future volatility. They assume that the market is 100% efficient and everyone would engage in dynamic hedging if they could or that everyone agree that the Black and Scholes model gives the "fair" price for the option, whatever it means to them. Therefore any difference between the market price and the BS price shouldn't be interpreted as an opportunity for arbitrage or a presence of model risk, but what 'the market' is saying the BS parameters should be, in special the volatility the market is predicting for the future time until the maturity of the European option. Question from James Bass - Why is IV different between put and call of same strike? In his book Dynamic Hedging Nassim Taleb says that the volatility of an OTM put should be exactly equal to that of a corresponding in the money call of same strike. But in option chains, the calls always have a slightly higher IV than the corresponding put. Is this because I am looking at American option chains and not European?

Volatility Review: Looks like the market started taking the weekend out on Thursday, and never looked back. VIX Cash: Low: 12.09, High: 13.27 S&P 30-Day realized: 10, S&P 60-Day realized: 11 VVIX: 74.50 - on the lower end of its recent range. Skew Index: 121.11 - also on the low end of recent range. Put vs SPX White Paper: A Leveraged Portfolio Management Approach Applying The CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index. VIX Options: A strong volume week. 945K Contracts on Monday, 750k Tuesday, 700k Wednesday and only 350k Thursday. VIX Up / VIX Down: Despite our doubts last week, the product is doing heavy volume. Question from IVDaily - Please explain the VXUP and VXDN products to me. I am very confused. What am I getting if I buy this thing? Its not really spot VIX that I am getting, but the actual percentage move in the spot VIX, correct? What does this paired contract thing mean? Do I have to wait for someone to sell VXUP before I can buy the VXDN and vice versa? Shed some more light into the darkness please guys. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Gerry Engle - Hola fellows. Like the programs especially Option Block and Volatility Views. I noticed you guys do not talk much about technicals. The few times you have mentioned them you seem to take a dim view of them. Why is that? Are there no technicals that you feel are useful for options traders to pay attention to? What about volatility technicals? Question from Ibrahim Hawash: Hi Mark. This is Contrails again, after several months away from options I forayed into Forex my original trading stumping ground smile emoticon I learned a lot about price action support and resistance, trend lines, pivots etc... I am looking now into options for position trading. I am so comfortable doing directional trades, bullish and bearish speculation and not yet into vol trading. My question is if I find a stock sitting on strong support and at a very low IV% (MU and PG is what I am looking at) along with confirming buying volume would you buy a OTM or ITM calls? I have a feeling you will say why not sell puts smile emoticon but let’s stick with calls for now given my account restriction. Is there a golden rule on choosing ITM vs OTM in this situation? I read that only buy ITM calls because OTM expire worthless as in hear. Also my understanding that when IV% is very low you would not buy call vertical spread and choose to buy calls, is this correct? I also have a question, do leap options IV increase at earning times along with shorter expiration options? One more thing, forgot to ask that I am looking to buy calls expiring in 2-3 months and I am looking at daily candle stick charts. Crystal Ball: Reckless prognostication. Will there be a Tuesday morning pop?

Volatility Views 158: Is VIX Without Contango Even Possible? Volatility Review: A look back at the week in vol VIX Cash: High: 15.13 - Low: 12.41 VVIX: 82.12 S&P 30-day realized Vol: 10 VIX Options: Total: 7.84m (5.84m Calls, 2.01m Puts) Single largest VIX Options trade in History. Sold VIX July 17-23 1x2 call spread to close. Bought July 17-23 1x2 call spread to close play $0.11 - essentially rolling out to July. Size was 1.08M contracts total. Crude Oil: Crude bears are starting to show their claws again. OVX 31.67 - OIV 32.18 This comes after today may set a near-record 9th week of gains for the most consecutive weekly gains in at least 30 years. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Andrew Grove - Are there any packaged products out there that will replicate a long or short delta-neutral straddle position? The key part I believe would be the adjustments as the product would require multiple adjustments to remain delta neutral. I have listened to your program for a long time and come to the conclusion that delta-neutral is the best way to capture volatility in the marketplace right now. But I do not want to tie up all of my capital and all of my time managing and adjusting one trade. I would prefer to buy or sell something that handled the lion’s share of the work for me. If there was some slippage on the execution I could live with it as the ultimate cost of using a packaged product vs. doing it myself. Thoughts? Am I crazy? I would love to get the old VolX guys opinion on this as well if possible since I assume they have insight into this issue.

Volatility Viewpoint: Today's guest is Euan Sinclair, Author of Volatility Trading Editions 1 & 2, as well as Options Trading. He discusses: What is driving the pronounced decrease in VIX? What were the primary drivers of the dramatic increase in "Vol-of-Vol" we saw at the end of 2014? CBOE is launching VIX weeklies soon. Does he feel they have the potential to succeed where VXST has failed miserably? A sneak peek of any book he currently has in the works. Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Low - 12.10, High - 16.36 VIX Options: Total 6.62m (4.76m Calls, 1.86m Puts) Crude oil: OVX & OIV Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Mark Brant: Please address how IV chain structure can make a spread more viable or less viable and how liquidity affects such IV structures. Question from AdamVega:Hello I am a big fan, thank you for your great shows. I have been looking for a platform that I use for Backtesting. I currently use thinkorswim but Backtesting is slow and not reliable. Any suggestions? Thanks AdamVega

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility point-of-view VIX Cash: Low: 12.33 - High: 15.29 VIX Options: Another modest volume week. 75k May 20 calls purchased Wednesday for $.40. Paper buying June 23 puts for $.15. June 17-20 call spread vs 14.5 puts went up nearly 30k times. May/June 13.5 put spread trade 10,000 times. Total 6.14m (4.39m Calls, 1.75m Puts) Options volume slid in first quarter. Volatility cycles and stock trends. International Volatility: India VIX caps monthly advance as futures rollover below average. Crude Oil: OVX - 36.09, OIV - 36.95 Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Eli - Would you agree that VXX shares are a useful intraday way to trade volatility? What is the longest you would consider holding that before the roll yield effect begins to kick in? Question from Oaklander - Do VIX options suffer the same from time decay as regular options? Are there peculiarities to the VIX formula that make the options perform differently on a theta basis? Question from Charlie B - Long VXX vs short OTM front month VIX call. Can this be considered a covered call? What other sorts of "volatility yield" strategies can you recommend? Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating? You betcha. Non-farms have been rather “meh” lately, with people selling vol into non-farms. What’s the outlook for this week?

Volatility Viewpoint: Today’s guest is Mike Thompson of Typhon Capital. He discusses: VIX Futures VXST The mainstream acceptance of volatility VXX and VSTOXX Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a vol perspective A groundhog day in volatility. VIX: volume down significantly. VIX Options: Put love later in the week. June 14-18-21 fly spread going up. Gold: GVZ hitting a seven month long, near the 15 handle. Crude Oil: The bulls are back in crude. Volatility Voicemail: Listener comments and questions Question from Tim Engels - Been a lot of ink lately about VIX volume being in the toilet. You guys have touched on it once or twice on the program as well. Why do you think the volume has fallen off a cliff? Question from Theist - Reading about delta neutral strategies. But the profit seems small for each adjustment, commissions seem large for the adjustments, and the values for many of the variables (delta, vega) seem questionable at best. Is this really a viable strategy over the long term or are there better way to capture volatility in the marketplace? Question from Frank Underwood - Any good mobile apps out there for volatility analysis? Seems like I am always on the go and never at my desk when a good trading idea strikes me. Crystal Ball: Reckless prognostication. Looking for VIX to rise over next week or two.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. Greece bringing some volatility back to the table. VIX Cash: Low: 12.50 - High: 14.75 Earnings do not seem to be injecting much Vol into the market. S&P: Skew Index: 120.37 VIX Options: Our friend with the April 13 puts decided that discretion was the better part of valor - sold 90,636 of them on Tuesday for $.05. 800K contracts on Tuesday. Total 4.22m (3.12m Calls, 1.11m Puts) Elizabeth Warren: Tax the banks. Warren called for a transaction tax on firms that use computer-based trading systems to make rapid-fire transactions. She said taxing so-called high-frequency trading would make the market less volatile and give smaller investors a fighting chance. Crude Oil: The bulls are back in crude - OVX: 43.48, OIV: 42.67 Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from K9 - Why does no one in the US talk about VSTOXX as a volatility gauge? I think it does a better job of measuring overall Vol by taking the square root of the implied variance rather than the convoluted VIX formula. It also does not have all the outside influences polluting the calculation the way VIX does. Maybe this should be something you guys include in your program going forward? Question from Fred - My study of options is enjoyable, but it takes so long. I am going to be 200 before I know anything… Do you think expiration Friday has changes in significance in recent years? Is it not really that much of a big deal anymore? Comment from Mark Brant - Inspired by C-bass video: AAPL, Sell W234 6-Strike Iron Butterflies; Buy W7 Straddle. Credit is 20% of margin requirement...AAPL Week2 1X5 modified Iron Butterflies with long 5X gamma wings are working! Crystal Ball: Maybe check the expiration date of the contracts you trade. Just saying. Will there be an all-time high in S&P 500?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week in volatility VIX Options: April 50 calls still open - someone made a massive play in May calls. A ton of new volume in June 17-23 calls, nearing the 1M mark total for just today. Crude oil: Call option trades target return of $100 US crude oil. Other Volatility Topics: Apple Watch - can it bring back the glory days of AAPL? Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Rahul Tandalkar - Sir. Can you please tell me a website where I can find implied and historical volatility for Indian stocks? Question from J Dog - So VXX is crap! We all know this. Are there any VIX ETFs that you guys like? Question from Tom Snydon - What can I not trade options on OVX? Crystal Ball: Sold to you, and more wild speculation.

Volatility Review: A look back at the week in vol VIX Cash: Low: 12.89 - High: 17.19 S&P: Skew Index: 122.86 VIX Futures: Stories from the front Question - Hi Mark: My story is about a professional trader in VIX Futures who claims he lost heavily because the electronic broker he was trading through had the wrong expiration date – it was one day early. Apparently this professional trader had a position of over $100M. Apparently the wrong expiration date had been posted for several months. He won an award for over $2m at a FINRA panel behind closed doors. My questions: What is your reaction? If you are a VIX Futures trader do you typically hold your position over days/months or do you close out at end of day? It seems also possible that if the wrong expiration date was published, a VIX Futures traders could also come out ahead on the positive side of the balance sheet? What is your take on VIX Futures? VIX Options: April 50 calls still open - someone is quite optimistic about April Vol. Total 4.49m (3.03m Calls, 1.46m Puts) International Vol Review: More from the Russians? Crude Oil: Call option trades target return of $100 US crude oil. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Charlie C - Hey Vol Viewers. OIV and OVX both hovering around 50 - which has the best chance to pop? Question from Mark - Liked the discussion about the structural volatility of the market from the last episode. Allow me to pose a related thought question to you. Mark Longo stated on the show that it would take “world peace and perfect harmony in the markets” to get the VIX below 5 for any substantial period of time. But what if the S&P were to double or even triple in value? According to the skew curve wouldn’t that bring us down into a VIX in the single digits? Perhaps even below five? Probably more feasible than world peace. Good show. I have to side against Jared in the Fed wager. The odds of a raise this year don’t look very good. If I throw my hat into the ring can I get in on the inevitable steak party that Jared will be throwing in Chicago? I like my T-bone medium rare please.

Volatility Views 151: The Fix on VIX Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Low: 12.54 - High: 16.37 VIX Settlement seemed somewhat controversial again this month. VIX ETFs: TVIX and VIXY shares outstanding doubled over the past 5 weeks going into the bankers meeting this week. S&P: Options contracts that pay off should the S&P 500 lose 10 percent in the next three months, near the time of a potential Federal Reserve rate increase, are by some measures almost seven times more expensive than at the start of the year, the data show. Quadruple witching something of a non-event - with expiration every week now, it seems as though triple and quad witching have lost some of their luster. VIX Options: Big VIX trades this week - customers buying upside calls in April, particularly 22 & 26 strikes. April 50 call still open. Total 3.65m (2.50m Calls, 1.16m Puts) Volatility Index Bracketology: Someone beat Jared to the earnings volatility study - Informed traders prefer options says academic research. International Vol Review: Russian "mystery" event a bit of a letdown - Could the Israeli election have an impact? Crude Oil: The bears had their claws out again for crude oil. Brent down 3% Thursday - WTI down 2%. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from The Great Donaldo - Hello to the volatility wizards. I enjoyed your coverage of the RMC conference and Marks interviews with some of the speakers. I have never been able to attend the event due to scheduling conflicts. I am also not partial to attending an event that is primarily intended to promote one firms products. So I would appreciate your informed opinions on other volatility-oriented events that you feel are worthwhile for the listening audience to attend. I do not mind some forays into the mathematical realm but I am not interested in modeling so much as strategy and theory. Thank you for all of the work that you do to shine light into the darkness. Question from Lee Daniels - What is the absolute baseline level of volatility that we could reasonably expect to see in the marketplace. I have heard you guys talk about a VIX in the low teens on earlier episodes. Is a single digit VIX feasible and if so for how long? Could we ever see a VIX below 5? What sort of situation would it take to achieve such historically low volatility levels in the marketplace?

Volatility Views 150: Doing Our VIX Term Structure Homework Volatility Review: A look back at the week in volatility: VIX Cash: Low: 14.71 - High: 17.19 Skew Index: 121.53 VIX Options: Total 5.58m (3.74m Calls, 1.85m Puts). Surprisingly light volume given the activity seen this week. Most days substantially under recent ADV. MSCI options to be listed soon. RVX: 65 Contracts open interest. FTSE volatility products coming soon. VXST: OI just 25 contracts. VolX: A lot of interest in their products down at Boca from market makers as well as domestic & international exchange. International Volatility Review: What can we expect from the Kremlin? Crude Oil: A volatile week for crude with futures having wild intraday swings. Both Brent and WTI made early gains yesterday only to give them up heading into expiration. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Carl Jedredes - What is the traditional slope of VIX futures term structure? How much premium do the long term futures typically exhibit over front month (i.e six month future 8% over front month future)? When the term structure is flat or even backward does this typically benefit ETPs like VXX that are forced to rebalance on a regular basis. Question from Beta Ray Bill - Is there some way to use implied volatility to choose your strike when trading options? Crystal Ball: The wager continues: Fed raising rates in 2015?

Volatility Views 149: History of Economic Data Volatility Viewpoint: Mark & Bill breakdown the RMC Conference. The most interesting panels and presentations, surprising revelations, and other like or dislikes. Volatility Review: A look at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Low: 13.25 - High: 15.33 Skew Index: 127.26 VIX Options: Total 4.97m (3.38m Calls, 1.59m Puts) The extended hours for VIX options began trading on Monday, while the extended hours for SPX options are expected to start on Monday, March 9. International Volatility Review: ECB plans to buy foreign debt. Crude Oil: Expect more volatility in oil says Exxon CEO Crystal Ball: Is vol creeping back in

Volatility Views 148: What Color Is the Dress? Volatility Review: A look back in the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: Low: 12.86, High: 15.48 Skew Index: 126.20 The extended hours for VIX options are set to begin Monday, March 2, while the extended hours for SPX options are expected to start on Monday, March 9. VIX Options: Total 4.38m (2.98m Calls, 1.40m Puts) VIX term structure hits CBOE earnings International Volatility Review Crude Oil: Volatility returning to oil. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Jordan M. - Do you have any updates on the volatility ETF from Robert Whaley that proposes to eliminate the roll yield issues with VXX? Is it coming to market any time soon? Question from Smile Creators - Hello, big fan. Thanks for the great shows. Is there a study that tracks Implied vol vs Historical vol? I am interested to see when they are following the same pattern or they deviate. Pakapiko. Question from Mr. Bochco - Where do you guys fall on the great 252 vs 365 debate when analyzing volatility? I have heard arguments for both. At the end of the day does volatility not occur even on the weekends and holidays? The Wager: Comment from AvonDude - Recent comments from the Fed this week seem to reinforce Marks stance on rates. Whomever wins the wager should buy the other guy a bottle of the fine liquor of their choice. Comment from Mike S. - Not looking good on the Fed front. I probably have to fall on the no change side of the fence after this week. I do not remember which host wagered on what but I would like to see the losing host make a donation to the other host’s favorite charity. That way everyone wins. Comment from Tom Statton - I think both co-hosts should buy Mark a steak regardless of the outcome for featuring them on this fantastic program. Well done Mark. I would buy you one as well if you ever make it to Alberta. Comment from Mark A. - No way Fed raises this year. When he loses I think Jared should fly to Chicago and host a cocktail party for all Volatility Views listeners. I would happily allow him to buy me some tasty beverages. Comment from SylvanElph - Regarding the Fed Bet - It o\is a radio program so the co-hosts cannot wear embarrassing outfits. Maybe buy the other a pizza of their choice? So Jared would have to buy Mark (and Mark) a nice Chicago deep dish and Mark would have to buy Jared a tasty NYC thin crust. Or New Haven style. Whatever his preference. Comment from Jeremy Stevens - I think the Fed will have to adjust their rates before the close of 2015. They are too terrified of inflation and stagflation to sit on their hands. Not sure why a blip in CHF in early 2015 would set the tone for Fed policy at the end of 2015? Maybe Mark can elaborate? As for the wager - How about the loser gives away 5 free subscriptions to his services to VV listeners? So Jared can give away some BGC Research and Mark can offer his Option Pit subscriptions. Crystal Ball: Andrew and Jared prognosticate wildly. VIX cash to below 13?

Volatility Views 147: Men Cause Volatility Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: High - 16.74, Low - 15.10 S&P: 30-day IV - 13, 30-day HV - 15, Skew Index - 131.30 VIX Options: A decent volume week except for 2/19 with only 250k contracts. Total 3.39m (2.33m Calls, 1.06m Puts). Extended VIX Options trading hours start March 2. International Volatility Review: Greece is the word. Oil: The battle for $50 continues - WTI March futures back below $50, OVX at $55.75. Men create volatility? Could more women traders cut volatility? Experimental market sessions show more women traders = smaller and fewer bubbles Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Follow-up from Uncle Ben - Thanks for answering my question last week. Your sympathy for my plight as the “lone market participant” is appreciated. Sorry I set off Jared’s racism detector with my handle. I did not mean to derail the program. It just happens to be my name (although I do like the rice). Question from Brian T. - You say earnings is a crap shoot, so you simply should not play the game. I say that if you take a systematic, risk-limited short volatility approach, such as with iron condors, you maximize the potential to harvest premium, while eliminating the risk of what Mark referred to as "big blowouts". You clearly have to be judicious with your strike selection, but I have found this to be a profitable long term approach to earnings season. Question from Tim Biggs - Any data on that theta free approach to earnings? What percentage of decay occurs prior to the event vs. post-event and how does that compare to underlying movement during the period? Crystal Ball: Will the Eurozone move towards gradual progress? What does economic growth really mean? Other wild prognostications.

Volatility Views 146: Betting on Fed Volatility Volatility Review: A look back in the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: High - 19.28, low - 15.26 S&P: 30-Day Imp. Vol - 13, 30-Day Hist. Vol - 16. Skew Index - 129.94 VVIX: Thursday Close - 93.24 VIX Options: 700K contracts on Feb 12, for a strong up day for the market. Total 5.36m (3.28M calls, 2.08M puts). Extended VIX Options trading hours start March 2. Upcoming launch of RealVol SPY Options on BOX - good news for our former co-hosts. VXST: Current open interest: 3 contracts. RVX: Current open interest: 58 contracts. International Volatility Review: RVI - Russian Volatility Index OIL: WTI March futures are back above $50, after dipping below it again. OVX still hovering near $60, 6-month chart of OVX is pretty impressive. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Follow-up from Uncle Ben - Thanks for answering my question last week. Your sympathy for my plight as the “lone market participant” is appreciated. Sorry I set off the racism detector with my handle. I did not mean to derail the program. It just happens to be my name (although I do like the rice). Question from Tim Biggs - Any data on that theta free approach to earnings? What percentage of decay occurs prior to the event vs. post-event and how does that compare to underlying movement during the period? Question from George - This may seem like a silly question but does anyone go out and look at old VIX cash data from 30 days ago and compare that to current realized? Is that not what VIX cash is attempting to predict? Is that disseminated anywhere as a number or index? Something along the lines of a VIX Accuracy Index? The Wager: Comment from Tom Statton - I think both co-hosts should buy Mark a steak regardless of the outcome for featuring them on this fantastic program. Well done Mark. I would buy you one as well if you ever make it to Alberta. Comment from Mark A - No way Fed raises this year. When he loses, I think Jared should fly to Chicago and host a cocktail party for all Volatility Views listeners. I would happily allow him to buy me some tasty beverages. Comment from SylvanElph - Regarding the Fed Bet - It is a radio program so the co-hosts cannot wear embarrassing outfits. Maybe buy the other a pizza of their choice? So Jared would have to buy Mark (and Mark) a nice Chicago deep dish and Mark would have to buy Jared a tasty NYC thin crust. Or New Haven style. Whatever his preference. Comment from Jeremy Stevens - I think the Fed will have to adjust their rates before the close of 2015. They are too terrified of inflation and stagflation to sit on their hands. Not sure why a blip in CHF in early 2015 would set the tone for Fed policy at the end of 2015? Maybe Mark can elaborate? As for the wager - How about the loser gives away 5 free subscriptions to his services to VV listeners? So Jared can give away some BGC Research and Mark can offer his Option Pit subscriptions. Crystal Ball: Mark and Mark prognosticate wildly.

Volatility Views 145: Debating Earnings Skew and Corporate Racism Volatility Review: A look at the week in vol: VIX Cash: High: 22.81, Low: 16.67 S&P: 30-day IV: 15, 30-day HVOL: 16, Skew Index: 127.54 VVIX: Thursday close: 98.56 VIX Options: Total 4.80m (2.86m Calls, 1.95m Puts) Market now loving CBOE numbers, stock off 5.5% - earnings were up 7.6%, but missed expectations. Extended VIX Options trading hours start March 2. VXST: Another week of anemic volume dispute significant underlying movement. RVX: Still no appreciable volume. OIL: Another crazy week for oil - rallies over 20%, then clipped, the rallied more again. Currently hovering above the $50 strike again. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Reply from Ernitin14 - @OptionsInsider love Vol Views show. Here's my counterargument on remarks on skew shape. If everybody is hedging their short bet, vol squeeze is very likely which is exactly what happened in GOOG post earnings. Yes ATM call spread were the best plays, in case it was a win - win situation. Blow out numbers - upside explosion, so-so numbers- covering their shorts. What I am missing? Question from Uncle Ben - Liked the discussion on risk premium from the last episode. This is a topic I have always struggled with. It seems like you are chasing your tail either way. If you compare straightforward 30-day implied vol vs. historic vol, then you are comparing an indicator that is really 30 days forward with an indicator that is nearly 30 days lagging. It does not make much sense. If you attempt to extrapolate realized vol forward, you run into the same errors that plague implied volatility. There are millions of dollars spent on volatility forecasting models that cannot get it right, so what chance do I really have with my own little algorithm? Is this all a fool’s errand? Comment from Alvo - Hey guys - just a note that 30-day historical vol actually measures about 20 trading sessions, with 30-day implied vol foes out a full month. Different size sets = problems. Crystal Ball: Andrew and Jared prognosticate wildly.

Volatility Views 144: Talking Earnings Volatility Volatility Review: A look in the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash: High: 21.55, Low: 15.52 S&P: 30-day IV: 18, 30-day HVOL: 17, Skew Index: 130.44. Goldman says nap time for put sellers. VVIX: Thurs close: 100.70, Week range: 91.85-109.99 VIX Options: Total 4.29m (2.97m Calls, 1.32m Puts) VXST: Another week of anemic volume despite significant underlying movement. RVX: Still no appreciable volume. OIL: Another crazy week for oil. Saudi prince reiterates that "we will never see $100 oil again." OPEC Chief says this may be the bottom for oil. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from NINC - Hey Volatility Views guys. I know you have discussed the topic of earnings studies in the past, particularly as it relates to earnings straddles. You said there was not much research on the topic. Has the situation changed since that conversation? Has there been any new research on the topic? I know you discussed the possibility of doing such a study for this program? What is the status of that study? Please let me know when you release it as I would be very interested in the results. Thank you for this network. I am a regular listener of volatility views, options boot camp and the news rundown programs. Question from Andrew S - If you had to lean long or short going into every earnings cycle which way would you go? Me - I am tempted short but I am terrified about the blowout events. Question from Nitin Gulati - @OptionsInsider Funny how $GOOG moved today, apparently skew was bid up all day yesterday, so not a surprise. Crystal Ball: Mark and Jared prognosticate wildly.

Volatility Views 143: The Great Fed Debate Volatility Review: The week in volatility ECB takes all of the vol out of the market in one fell swoop. S&P 500 volatility streak longest since '12 as 1% moves multiply. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.5 per cent yesterday and moved 1.3 per cent from its lowest to highest levels. VXST: Another week of crappy volume. (The Mystery of Short-Term Volatility) FX Volatility: Another crazy week following the Swiss Franc crisis. Crude Oil: Crude continues to take it on the chin. Domestic crude supplies at near record levels. Iraq increasing production to offset declining revenues. Death of the Saudi King adding to the confusion. Here’s the chart that Mark was referring to from Daily FX: Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Marcus N - You discussed the retracement from backwardation to contango in VIX Futures on the last episode. If I thought the retracement would be rapid and I wanted to play that retracement, would the near-term futures or options be my best bet? Question from Avrile - Risk premium - What is it? I have seen it defined many ways. Is it a products 30-day implied vs. 30-day realized? 10-day vs. 10-day? If using 30-day realized that’s a lagging indicator. Do you then have to extrapolate that forward using an algorithm, then compare that to 30-day implied to get a more accurate number? What about comparing something like front month or 30-day implied SPX volatility vs VIX Cash or VIX Future? Is that the best surrogate for the markets risk premium? Or has VIX Cash become such a polluted number that it is better to stick with straight SPX implied volatility? Crystal Ball: Mark and Jared prognosticate wildly!

Volatility Views 142: The Swiss Franc Black Swan Volatility Review: A look at the week that was: Swiss Franc: Deutsche Bank AG suffered about $150 million in losses Thursday after the Swiss National Bank abruptly removed the cap on the Swiss franc’s value, sparking a massive rally. Meanwhile, a major U.S. currency broker warned its equity was wiped out, a U.K. retail broker entered insolvency and a New Zealand foreign-exchange trading house collapsed. Crude Oil: Oil prices fell on Thursday after weak U.S. economic data spurred worries over crude oil demand. U.S. crude declined $2.23, or 4.6 percent, to settle at $46.25 a barrel. Brent crude was last down $1 to trade around $48 a barrel. Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Mark Brant - @Options How long does VIX backwardation normally last and are the reversions to contango sharp or mild? Question from Analygos - I have heard you discuss previously buying options prior to earnings to capitalize on free gamma with no decay. My question is about after earnings when the premium collapses. Is that technically options decay all coming out of the option at once? Or is it a collapse of implied volatility that is erasing the premium in the options? If the latter then is the decay technically occurring every day prior to earnings and just being overcome by increasing implied volatility leading up to the earnings event? Crystal Ball: What is coming up for this week in vol? Expiration making things extra crazy.

Volatility Views 141: The Return of Euan Sinclair Volatility Viewpoint: Euan Sinclair, author of Volatility Trading Editions 1 and 2 and Options Trading,is back. Euan is an option trader with over eighteen years of professional trading experience. He currently works on strategy design and is the risk manager at Bluefin Trading. He holds a PhD in theoretical physics from the University of Bristol. He discusses: The major volatility takeaways/lessons from 2014? The dramatic increase in "vol-of-vol" at the end of the year, and the primary drivers of that? Did the flight of institutional liquidity from the markets contribute to the increase in "vol-of-vol", or is the lack of liquidity overplayed? His take on what we are seeing from a commodity vol perspective right now, particularly crude oil? His opinion of VXST, and why it has not gained more traction His opinion on the two VIX competitors in the works - Voldex and the Whaley Project A sneak peek at his new book and what he is looking out for in 2015 Crystal Ball: Non-farm payroll numbers were the only vol driver this week. Maybe the start of earnings season will inject some volatility back into this marketplace?

Volatility Views 139: Getting Angry About Volatility Volatility Review: The week in volatility: VIX Cash: Low - 12.55, High - 21.09 VIX Options: Total 6.66M (4.35M calls, 2.31M puts) VXST: Total 7,746 (5,185 calls, 2,561 puts) Oil Volatility: USO vs. XLE - Traders hedge oil ETF while energy stocks lure buyers. Volatility Voicemail: Questions and comments from our loyal listeners Question from CPunk - Hello Volatility Gurus! Long time, first time. Love your discussions of all things volatility, particularly your breakdowns of the different products. I listened to your episode with Scott Nations recently and it got me thinking about how most volatility products appear to be very flawed. VIX has obvious issues and the Voldex product does not appear to solve many of them beyond eliminating skew. The various ETPs all have very well-known issues as well. If I had to think of an ideal volatility product, it would probably be something along the lines of what your former sponsors VolX promoted - a product that essentially captures the actual volatility in the marketplace. I am not familiar with the underlying mechanics of their product to analyze it, but I think we need more products in that vein, that attempt to deliver the actual volatility in the marketplace versus some vague guesstimate that is probably wildly inaccurate. Do you agree? If you could construct your ideal volatility product, what would it be? Crystal Ball: What do we expect to see in the last few weeks of 2014?

Volatility Views 138: The Action Is In Oil Volatility Review: The week in vol VIX Cash: High: 14.75 - Low: 12.09 VIX Options: Total 5.71M (3.84M Calls, 1.86M Puts). VIX shunned as few bumps seen for S&P 500 at years end. International Vol review: Its official - America is now No. 2 Oil Volatility: Oil futures slide on Saudi price cut to U.S. Gold Volatility: Hard to be a bull in this gold market. Listener Mail: Listener questions and comments Question from Michael Roberts - I came across your program while looking for new diversification options for my clients. I find your suggestions about collars and protective puts very interesting. I have also been reading new research about volatility itself being positioned as an alternative asset class. This leads me to two questions: 1. Do you agree that volatility is an asset class? 2. What is the best process to gain exposure to that asset class for my clients? Is simply buying an options with a substantial vega component sufficient, or must I purchase a dedicated volatility asset such as VIX options or an ETF life VXX? Question from Joe Hill - SPY vs SPX vs e-Mini Options Question. Hello from Georgia. I know that these products are supposed to be similar from an implied volatility perspective, but how similar are they really? After all, they are distinct products, each with its own volume and customer flow. Do they all trade in a similar fashion, or are there times when these products will exhibit discrepancies. Last - Can we get a show on just commodity vol on of these days? Thanks for your time.

Volatility Views 137: Crying Wolf in Volatility ETPs Volatility Review: The week in vol: Global Derivatives Event: It was nice to see a lot of Vol Views listeners and former guests! Sell implied when VIX is low, buy implied when VIX is high. VIX Cash: High - 15.74, Low - 13.13 VIX Options: Total 4.34M (2.89M Calls, 1.46M Puts) VXST: Another weird volume week - 300 to 3,000 contracts on various days. Total 11k (8305 Calls, 2801 Puts) A Review of Jared's Vol ETP Report - Crying Wolf: What the VIX alarmists are missing. Crude Vol: Nat Gas and Oil Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from IndyJoe - I saw Marks tweet about buying high VIX/selling low VIX this week. Can he clarify what he meant by that? Seems counterintuitive. Question from Pat Cummins - I think the pounding the VIX has taken lately is overdone. I am bullish volatility in the long term. Question: What is the best way for me to express that view? You have already dissuaded me from buying VXX as that is clearly the road to ruin. Would I be better off buying and holding a 1-year future? Or is there a third option I am overlooking Question from Alagory - Which is more overpriced - VIX calls or SPX puts?

Volatility Views 136: Oil Volatility and VXST Volume Volatility Review: The week in vol VIX Cash: VIX rallies - the market rallies has been a big story of this week. A lot of outlets have been jumping on the train. VIX Options: 2.3/1 call/put VXST: A decent week from a volume perspective. OI now at 10,244 (8,015 Calls/2,229 Puts) Introducing the launch of Treasury VIX futures. Crude Vol: XLE, Brent and WTI Listener Mail: Listener questions and comments Question from Timinc - Hello volatility views hosts. I appreciate your fine program although much of it exceeds my expertise. My question involves the Black-Scholes formula. I’m a student studying quantitative finance and we’re learning about this formula now. My professor stresses the value of this formula but is it still widely used in industry? Do I need to study Black-Scholes in order to get a derivatives quant or modeling job after I graduate? Question from Alan Baxter - What is the best source for data on trading activity in the volatility swaps market? Crystal Ball: Reckless, wild prognostication ensues. Jared flies solo in looking at the year ahead.

Volatility Views 135: Under-the-Radar Swiss Gold Volatility Review: Vol premium over the past week. Implied volatility vs. realized volatility. Vol Commodities: Oil, currencies, etc. Russell 2000 - RVX VXTYN - introducing the new 10-year volatility product. Crystal Ball: What are we looking forward to in the coming weeks?

Volatility Views 134: Earnings Surprises and Greenspan Gold Fades Volatility Review: Big surprises from an earnings vol/straddle perspective this quarter. AMZN - Sold off about $30. LNKD - Closed at $202.50. TSLA next week. CBOE this morning. VIX Cash: 17.87 - 14.04 VIX Options: Total 6.53m (4.46m Calls, 2.08m Puts) VXST: Total 4927 (4918 Calls, 9 Puts) Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Phillipono - Are there any good tools out there for comparing realized to implied volatility and determining the best times to sell premium?

Volatility Views 133: Skew Inversions and Dynamic Hedges Volatility Review: The week in vol VIX Cash: Most major indices up on the week - volatility returns to Rocktober. High - 23.08, Low - 15.56. VIX Options: A whopping 6.14M contracts total. OTC Volatility: Volker rule and its impact on liquidity. VXST: When is it going to catch fire? Oil/Energy: Strong investment skew, heavy puts activity. Metals: An outlook on gold/silver volatility. Volatility Voicemail: Return of the Don Comment from Don S regarding this listener question - "Let me leave you with this question: Long term which do you think will outperform - dynamically hedged SPY ATM straddle or dynamically hedged VIX straddle? They should be roughly equivalent but clearly they are not." Not sure anyone addressed this in a satisfactory manner. When you dynamically hedge an ATM straddle (meaning keeping it reasonably delta-neutral throughout), you are making a bet that the implied vol at which you buy or sell the options will turn out to be lower/higher than the actual volatility that the underlying goes on to display during the life of the trade. So, the first decision to make, which the writer did not address, when he asked about outperformance, is whether he was of a mind to be long or short the straddle. Naturally, being of sound mind, the only acceptable thing to do is to sell the straddle (!), as, historically, the implieds of the options are virtually always higher than what the realized vol of the underlying turns out to be. So, now that we have decided to sell these straddles and dynamically hedge them, trying to earn the spread between implied and realized vol, the question is, which underlying might provide, on average, the better profit potential. Typically, SPY implieds average 2-4 percentage points over realized, but, of course, there is great variability in that spread, which even goes negative, ever so briefly, from time to time. Unfortunately, I no longer have access to the comparable numbers for VIX, but, of course, we are now talking about making a bet not on the volatility differential between implieds and realized for an equity index, but rather for implied volatility itself (VIX), which means that the values we are dealing with are much higher (in the 90s, as opposed to in the teens). Again, I do not have the numbers, but I am guessing that the average spread between what amounts to implied vol of vol and actual vol of vol is somewhat greater than that of those same concepts applied to SPY. Soooo, I am guessing that, for the strategy under discussion, the vehicle of choice would be VIX, and, of course, it goes without saying that the only sane thing to be doing with the straddle would be to sell it. :-) Perhaps, next show, you would like to throw these ideas out there to see what everyone thinks. Regards,Don Crystal Ball: More reckless guesses about volatility going forward.