Bits + Bips: Why a U.S. Recession May Be Coming — And Still Isn’t Priced In - Ep. 814
What if the worst-case scenario isn’t just priced in—it hasn’t even started?
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Show Notes
The markets are rattled. Tariffs are rising. Investors are pulling back.
In this week’s Bits + Bips, the panel digs into what’s really driving the selloff, why the Fed may be stuck, and how Trump’s tariff logic could trigger deeper economic shocks than anyone expects.
Plus:
- Whether Bitcoin becomes a safe haven
- What makes this downturn different from 2022 and 2020
- Why a potential recession still isn’t priced in
- Whether Congress can take the tariff button away from Trump
And yes, Ram coins a new term: FAFO tariffs 😀
Sponsors:
Hosts:
- James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
- Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard
- Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida
- Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter
Links
Tariffs:
- Recent coverage of Unchained on the economy and tariffs:
- Arthur Hayes on Why Tariffs Will Be Good for Bitcoin and Crypto
- Bits + Bips: Trump’s Tariffs Are Causing Mayhem, But Will They Revive U.S. Manufacturing?
- Trump Tariffs Sink Crypto, BlackRock Pumps Bitcoin’s Bags
- Why Trump-Induced Stagflation Could Finally Make Bitcoin a Safe Haven
- In Market Crash, What Should You Buy? Crypto VCs Are Making These Bets
10-year yield and the Fed
- CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield rises back above 4% despite tariff threat to growth
- Reuters: No Fed 'put' when it's unclear which way the economy may pivot
2008 Market Crash
- Federal Reserve: The Great Recession and Its Aftermath
- CNN: Bailout Plan Rejected - Supporters Scramble
Can Congress Step In?
- Economist: How Donald Trump’s Tariffs Will Probably Fare in Court
- Politico: Trump Threatens Veto of Bill to Curb Tariff Power
Timestamps:
👋 0:00 Intro
📉 3:30 Why this selloff feels nothing like 2022 or 2020
🪞 8:41 Why buying signals could be a mirage
🤔 11:28 Is the bear market already priced in? What investors are missing.
🏚️ 14:35 Could this turn into a fall “2008 scenario”? And what real buyers are doing now
🧮 25:57 Why Trump’s tariff math is wrong, and how it will create problems for the administration
📈 36:15 Why Trump wants the 10-year yield down, and why he’s failing
🛟 39:59 What counts as a safe haven right now, and is bitcoin one of them?
🏦 52:42 Can the Fed stand up to Trump’s pressure to cut rates?
🚫 57:56 Trump thinks that the trade deficit is a profit/loss statement. Why that’s a problem.
⚖️ 1:01:19 Can Congress pull Trump’s tariff authority?
💵 1:06:32 Can stablecoins save dollar demand?
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