Trumponomics

The Benchmark crew celebrates the podcast's 100th episode with a trip through highlights as picked by hosts and producers, both past and present. From the Nobel Prize to Duke Bootee, Dan and Scott — along with some special guests — share the moments that put a human face on that thing we call economics. And we look forward at what the next 100 episodes will bring.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Why does the U.S. still dominate discussion in a major Chinese city? On a multi-week trip to Asia, Dan discovers a surprising place where America's dominance in Asia is unparalleled and gains some insight into Japan's labor market during a busy lunch hour in Tokyo's financial district. Guest host Joe Weisenthal from Bloomberg's `Odd Lots' podcast holds Dan to account and road tests some of his theories.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve said this week that it's about to try something that's never been done on this scale in the annals of central banking: reduce its $4.5 trillion stockpile of assets. The ramifications could be felt everywhere from mortgage rates, to the cost of vacationing in Thailand, even to President Donald Trump's attitude toward the Fed. Bloomberg reporter Chris Condon joins Scott to explain what's happening and try to come up with a better name than "balance sheet normalization" for the whole process. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One year ago, the Benchmark crew ventured into the future -- July 2017 -- to imagine what was then all but unimaginable: How would the U.S. economy fare in the first six months under President Donald J. Trump? Now that it's all come to pass, Scott and guest co-host Jeanna Smialek speak with our seer from 2016, Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro Research, to explain what we got right and wrong -- and what we can expect for the rest of the president's term. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Home prices in Canada's largest city have been on a tear. But the party could be on the verge of ending, at least temporarily. The Bank of Canada's decision this week to raise interest rates -- the first hike in seven years -- makes mortgages more expensive. A string of government tightening measures and a liquidity crunch at a Toronto mortgage lender are adding to concerns a price correction is around the corner. This week on Benchmark, Dan, Chris Fournier and Katia Dmitrieva speak to Phil Soper, chief executive officer at Royal LePage, a unit of Brookfield Real Estate Services, about what the latest developments mean for Toronto housing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. labor market looked pretty strong in June, with more Americans getting jobs and unemployment close to a 16-year low. All strong, with one glaring exception: Wages still just aren't rising that quickly. The question is, why? Yelena Shulyatyeva, a Bloomberg Intelligence senior economist, helps Scott and Dan break it down.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Twenty years ago this week, a momentous event more than a century in the making finally occurred: Hong Kong's handover to China. Turns out, that wasn't even close to the biggest story that year. What really did transfix the world in 1997 was the financial crisis that exploded a day after the handover -- in, of all places, Bangkok. Today on Benchmark, Dan, a former Malaysia bureau chief, and Hong Kong-based Malcolm Scott look back at the crisis and the wrenching economic and political changes it wrought. They're joined by Alec McCabe, who covered the drama from Hong Kong, and Lee Miller, then Bangkok bureau chief and now a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. One conclusion: Asia's convulsions were the first modern global financial crisis and a harbinger of a much greater shakeout in the U.S. a decade later. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New York subway riders and commuters, already mired in a miserable year, are bracing for a summer like no other amid rising delays, service cuts and overcrowding. It all underscores the perils of under-investment in rail systems that should be key drivers of growth. What the heck is going on? Can anything be done? Two guests think they have the answers: Jim Venturi, creator of the ReThinkNYC plan to overhaul regional transport links, and Tracy Gordon, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. Scott hosts along with Bloomberg City Hall reporter Henry Goldman.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Surprise! Japan's economy is no longer down and out. Instead, it may just be the next big growth surprise. Almost three decades since the collapse of Japan's stratospheric property bubble, bank lending is back, the jobless rate is below 3 percent and corporate profits have never been fatter. Technology and AI are again leading the way, compensating for the nation's shrinking population. Investor Peter Tasker joins Dan and guest co-host Chris Anstey to share his reasons for optimism. Along the way, Tasker reminisces about Japan's go-go years in the 1970s and '80s -- how his fictional anti-hero Mori survived all those long years of economic stagnation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Central banks tend to be more comfortable pulling levers of economic policy than being on the front line of crimefighting. For the monetary gurus of Indonesia, those two worlds have collided. Central bankers say the mafia is driving up the price of chili peppers, the Southeast Asian nation's favorite spice. This is one situation where raising interest rates -- the common tool to fight rising prices -- won't be enough. Dan and Scott talk with Karlis Salna, an economics reporter in Bloomberg's Jakarta bureau, to get the story.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Millions of middle-class Americans face an unexpected reality in today's era of economic growth: their paychecks vary so much that paying bills and saving for the future is exhausting and challenging month after month. This week on Benchmark, Dan and Scott speak with Jonathan Morduch and Rachel Schneider, whose book, "The Financial Diaries," vividly illustrates the financial struggles of more than 200 U.S. families.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What on earth is going on in Brazil? Less than a year after impeaching one president for fiddling fiscal accounts, her successor is on the ropes amid allegations of graft. Dig a little deeper and the real problem is a recession deeper than any the country has ever experienced. With Brazil one of the world's 10 largest economies -- and Latin America's largest -- it matters beyond the nation's borders. Sao Paulo native Vivianne Rodrigues, who runs Latin American political news at Bloomberg, joins Dan and Scott to explain what gives. We also hear that the gas station in Brasilia at the center of the scandal doesn't actually have a car wash!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump's road to 3 percent growth might run through New Zealand. The faraway nation is the only developed economy that's been expanding at such a torrid pace, thanks to the one factor that Trump railed against on the campaign trail: immigration. How did the land of "Lord of the Rings" become such a desired destination, and how are all those people squeezing into such a small country? Joining Dan and Scott is Tracy Withers, who has spent almost two decades covering the economy of his native land as a Bloomberg reporter in Wellington.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A major puzzle in the U.S. economy is why wage gains have been relatively subdued in the last couple of years, even as all signs point to a tight job market where employers are having trouble filling positions. One reason is that labor unions just don't have the clout they used to in America. While there are occasional victories, the situation is a far cry from the glory days of the 1970s, and it's also helping reshape the political landscape. Jared Bernstein, former chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden and an expert on labor economics, joins Scott and guest co-host Patricia Laya to explain.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world's easiest place to do business, the second-largest container port and the biggest center for commodities trading. There's a lot more to Singapore than a ban on chewing gum, which is mostly honored in the breach. Smaller than Rhode Island, settlements around modern-day Singapore rose and fell centuries ago on the China maritime trade. Think of it as an Oceanic version of the Silk Road. And as China's economic power expands, the little entrepot is well positioned to keep rising. John Curtis Perry, author of "Singapore: Unlikely Power" tells all to Dan and Scott.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Israel's economy is so innovative that it's forcing otherwise hostile Arab neighbors to look at ways they could also benefit -- and the result could eventually be a gradual normalization of relations, if all continues to go smoothly. One example: trade and collaboration in technology and intelligence are flourishing below the radar between Israel and a host of Arab states. Sure, there are a lot of caveats, and whether this will affect relations with Palestinians or Iran is another question, but just the fact that Israelis and Saudis are quietly getting along in one way is a start. Jonathan Ferziger, a reporter for Bloomberg in Tel Aviv, joins Dan and Scott to tell the story.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Here's an economic statistic you don't see very often: Top-flight surfing breaks can drive growth. Fresh from his 11-year-old daughter's surfing lesson just outside Sydney, Mike Heath asks guest Sam Wills to run through experiments that he says confirm the theory, especially during El Niño years. Stay tuned as Dan pines for the apartment he left behind in Bondi Beach two decades ago.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

G, a D and a P. Three letters, lots of trouble. Gross Domestic Product is the world's most common way to measure the value of all goods and services produced in an economy. But does it really deserve its pedestal? Lorenzo Fioramonti, a professor at the University of Pretoria, tells Dan and Scott that the acronym should actually stand for "Gross Dumb Product." He argues that it's responsible for all manner of sins, ranging from the pillaging of a South Pacific island to an instrument used by austerity-craven northern Europeans to hammer Greece. Time for a revolution, Fioramonti insists. Just make sure investors don't crucify you.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Donald Trump spent plenty of time on the campaign trail accusing China of stealing American jobs by taking away factories and using unfair trade practices. But China is actually giving a lifeline in one hard-hit part of the Rust Belt. That makes things between the two nations more complicated than Trump might want to admit as he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping for the first time. Michael Davis, economic development director for Moraine, Ohio, and Case Western Reserve University professor Susan Helper explain the story to Scott Lanman and guest host Andrew Mayeda.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We usually don't think about economics as a life-or-death subject. But for white Americans without a college degree, there's no other way to describe it. With job opportunities limited and an opioid epidemic in full throttle, death rates among this group are skyrocketing, an issue that probably helped elect Donald Trump as president. Anne Case and Angus Deaton, the married academic couple who brought this issue to the forefront, have just issued a followup paper to their groundbreaking 2015 study on the subject. Case returns to Benchmark to discuss the latest findings with Dan and Scott -- and offers her ominous take on what it portends for the future of the nation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Post-industrial Midwestern America helped propel Donald Trump to the nation's top job. You've heard that a hundred times. But did you hear about St Louis? A wave of Bosnian refugees, many of them Muslim, arrive in the city, starting in the mid-1990s. The result: a surge in business and job creation, revitalization of the community and help in the transition from a manufacturing to a service economy. Sadik Kukic tells Dan and Michelle about his journey from Balkan concentration camps to a pillar of the local community: He's now president of the Bosnian Chamber of Commerce. What could be more American?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Who says economics has to be all about numbers? Take a trip back in time with the Benchmark crew to the early 1980s, when double-digit inflation was such a scourge that it inspired a lyric in the hip-hop classic "The Message." Ed "Duke Bootee" Fletcher, who wrote most of the song, joins Scott and Dan to talk about those lyrics -- and a whole lot more. Then Alice Rivlin, a former Fed vice chair, gives perspective on inflation from her decades in the economic-policy world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Americans like to think of themselves as great risk takers, rolling back frontiers and imbued since birth with a spirit of entrepreneurship. But what if the technological revolutions spawned in Silicon Valley were, ironically, symptoms of a risk-averse country? Underneath the latest app for sex or music, we are becoming older and more comfortable with stasis and statism, according to guest Tyler Cowen. Dan and Scott ask him why we've become more like Europe and poster children for sclerosis: France, Germany and Italy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Forget Vladimir Putin. If Donald Trump and the Republicans want to stay in power, they could do well to emulate the approach of Poland's Law and Justice Party. After sweeping to victory in 2015, the conservative party has mixed nationalist rhetoric, populist economic policies and social conservatism to maintain a healthy lead in polls while driving liberals and the media crazy. So what's in the secret sauce, besides an unpronounceable brand of beer? Scott and Dan are joined by two Polish colleagues who can answer that question: Wojciech Moskwa, Bloomberg's Warsaw bureau chief, and Kasia Klimasinska, a Bloomberg reporter in Washington.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Widening inequality is a blight on the modern economy and will ultimately undermine growth. But wait. Let's not hurry to fix it because history shows it can only really be addressed by total war, total revolution, state collapse or Black Death-like pandemics. That's the conclusion of Stanford professor Walter Scheidel, who joins Dan and Scott. Scheidel takes us on a tour-de-force of the rise and fall of inequality from cave societies through the bubonic plague to the two World Wars. He's not an optimist.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump has had plenty to say about the smash hit musical "Hamilton": "Highly overrated," for one. But if we focus instead on Hamilton's economic policy, the president might find something to applaud. The first U.S. Treasury secretary wanted to protect industry. Hamilton also sought to roll back globalization and replace foreign-made goods with domestically produced ones. Sound familiar? Bloomberg's Rich Miller joins Dan and Scott to explain.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The nation's leader takes a sudden action that only a handful of people know about beforehand. His populist base loves it, even if it could disrupt the economy. Donald Trump's executive order on immigration? No, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's move to invalidate more than 80 percent of currency in circulation, a bid to stamp out corruption. Three months later, do the benefits outweigh the costs? Or will the hit to the economy be felt for years to come? Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad and Bloomberg reporter Sho Chandra join Scott to share their recent firsthand experiences from India and help explain why the action might just end up working.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Even in Deep Red America, the cosmopolitan world of Chardonnay and dual passport-holders is alive and well. Right alongside is a middle class enmeshed in that same world -- yet infuriated by it, a rage that opened the door to Donald Trump. Sure, this alternate universe may be shrinking, but it's still kicking up a lot of dust. Such are the revelations from a series of coast-to-coast road trips by bestselling author Robert D. Kaplan. Driving between New York and San Diego, Kaplan marvels at the strength of America's geography and its ability to project global political and economic leadership -- if only the middle class still wants it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

"Make America Great Again," Donald Trump's campaign slogan, became the government's guiding policy when he was sworn in last week as the 45th U.S. president. But how will we know just how great America is becoming? Forget GDP or unemployment: we'll tell you all about five Trumpian economic indicators you need to follow, including the share of workers with full-time jobs, the pace of business creation and how many prime-age Americans are in the labor force. Bloomberg Intelligence chief U.S. economist Carl Riccadonna and Bloomberg News economy editor Vince Golle join Scott to give you the rundown.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Too often the study of economics and exchange rates can seem very arcane. What does it mean in real life? For one meat smuggler, the end of 15 years of car trips to and from France with a trunk full of pork, beef and lamb. The Swiss franc's surge and the euro's swoon has encouraged more and more people to turn their hand to smuggling. There could be more to come. Catherine Bosley, a Bloomberg economics reporter in Zurich explains why to Dan and guest host Joe Weisenthal. And then there is the case of the $30,000 cash found in a sunglasses case.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows inflation is out of control in Venezuela. But the government long ago stopped publishing figures on a regular basis, leaving economists to dial up what are essentially wild guesses. Enter the Bloomberg Cafe Con Leche Inflation Index. It tracks just one item: A piping hot coffee at a bakery in eastern Caracas. Yet it provides a unique look at inflation in one of the world's most dysfunctional economies. David Papadopoulos, a Bloomberg managing editor in New York, and Fabiola Zerpa, a Bloomberg correspondent in Caracas, join Scott to talk about the gauge, and just how bad things really are in the nation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brexit. A Trump win. 2016 was full of unexpected surprises that rocked the global economy in ways that even most experienced market observers couldn't have predicted. But what does 2017 have in store? Benchmark hosts Dan Moss and Kate Smith speak with Bloomberg's John Fraher, creator of "The Pessimist Guide," to see what's in store in a worst-case scenario of the year to come.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump has pledged to get tough with China on trade and currency, already tensing up relations with the world's second-largest economy. But it could be worse: President Woodrow Wilson signed a treaty that gave Japan control of part of China, and that didn't go over too well. John Pomfret joins us to take the long view of relations between the U.S. and China. The longtime China correspondent for the Washington Post and author of the new book "The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom" joins Dan and Scott to discuss what the incoming U.S. president can learn from two centuries of contact, and how, as he puts it, stable ties with the U.S. can "make China great again."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

America's central bank finally got around to raising interest rates for the first time in a year and signaled borrowing costs will keep rising from their currently low levels. Should you rush out to buy that house? Will savers get more bang for their bucks? Are more people going to drown in credit-card debt? Join Dan, Scott and special guest Steve Matthews, a longtime Bloomberg Fed reporter, as we discuss just why, exactly, you should care.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From a fatal highway bridge collapse in Minneapolis to LaGuardia Airport's "third-world" experience, America's failing infrastructure is no secret. To bring the country up to date, advisers to President-elect Donald Trump have floated the idea of a federal infrastructure bank, allowing cities and states to borrow at exceptionally low interest rates and encouraging private investment. Will it work? We check in on America's neighbor to the north, where Francois-Philippe Champagne, Canada's parliamentary secretary to the finance minister, joins Kate and Scott to explain that nation's newly announced Infrastructure Bank and what the U.S. might be able to learn.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President-elect Donald Trump is on the verge of igniting a trade war with China. He might want to first listen to Jon Huntsman's thoughts on why that's a bad idea. The former ambassador to China, Utah governor and onetime GOP presidential candidate shares his insights into the Middle Kingdom at a time when the nation is undergoing its own economic transformation and faces a political crossroads. You won't want to miss the hints he gives Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss at his own political future in the U.S.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

First came Brexit. Then Trump. Now the world's attention turns once again across the Atlantic to France, where a presidential election is coming up and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could be the next politician to upend the establishment. The nation is reeling from terror attacks, the economy is in lousy shape, and President Francois Hollande's popularity is dismal. Nicolas Veron, a scholar at think tanks Bruegel and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins Scott and Kate to gauge the odds -- and potential impact of -- this next political earthquake.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Millions of Americans could help solve a looming labor shortage for certain U.S. industries. Problem is, they're felons. Are ex-cons who can't get jobs holding back economic growth? Join us on Benchmark this week to hear from Keri Blakinger, who served time in state prison for heroin possession before getting out, finishing college (at Cornell) and managing to get a job in, of all things, journalism. What's it like to go to an office cubicle from a prison cell?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the wake of Donald Trump's surprise presidential victory, the Benchmark team has a few questions: Is trade with Mexico destined to end? Is our relationship with China about to drastically shift? Is the U.S. about to experience a Reagan-esque stimulus? Take a trip around the world as Kate, Dan and Scott discuss what the president-elect means for the global economy as we know it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Falling food prices may be good for your Thanksgiving tab this year, but they're doing a number on the U.S. economy. Food commodity prices have fallen over 20 percent from early 2015, helping to keep inflation at bay and wages stagnant, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs. As prices have fallen, the cost of eating out has stayed the same - what gives? This week, co-hosts Kate Smith and Dan Moss are joined by Al Di Meglio, the chef behind buzzy new South Williamsburg restaurant Barano, to talk about what falling food prices mean for the notoriously difficult restaurant business.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How tight is the U.S. labor market? So much that one trucking company is offering $5,000 signing bonuses to lure new drivers. Yet millions of Americans remain out of the workforce -- people who might be candidates for a job that, while tough, takes relatively little training and can't be shipped overseas. What's going on here? Two guests share their theories with co-hosts Scott Lanman and Kate Smith: Scott's uncle, Kenny Hahn, a professional truck driver for almost four decades, and Justin Fox, a Bloomberg View columnist who has written about the industry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If U.S. childcare costs are so expensive, why do people who walk your dog make more money than the workers who take care of your kids? Is there any way it could become cheaper to send your kid to day care than to attend a public university? Our co-hosts are interested: Scott because he has two young daughters in preschool, and Kate because she pays a sizable sum to have her dog walked. Joining them are Scott Cotter, CEO of Childcare Network, which operates 249 centers across the southeastern U.S., and fellow Bloomberg podcaster Rebecca Greenfield, who takes time from her Game Plan show to discuss her reporting on childcare costs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How did a diminishing slice of Western economies come to so dominate the political narrative? The roar of the white working class, mainly in onetime industrial powerhouses, put Donald Trump within shouting distance of the White House, ejected Britain from the EU and fueled the surge of far-right parties in France and Germany. J.D. Vance, bestselling author of "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis" tells Daniel Moss and Scott Lanman how we got here. The onetime resident of Middletown, Ohio shares his tip on who will win Ohio and, in the process, the presidency.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

And you might want to cross San Francisco off the list, too. In the past 30 years, the most expensive metro areas in the U.S. have seen their housing prices grow at a much faster pace than the least expensive markets, according to a new report out from Trulia. That rapid increase has caused certain areas - especially New York's long-envied Manhattan borough - to be closed off to not only the successful and wealthy, but those that were also raised by the successful and wealthy. Kate Smith and Dan Moss talk to one half of the Case-Shiller Index and the authority on housing prices, Robert Shiller, on what's driving the prices up and whether New York real estate is all it's cracked up to be.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world's most powerful central bank kept interest rates unchanged today, but the Federal Reserve also suggested an increase is imminent -- perhaps as soon as December. Join Dan, Scott and Fed reporter Matt Boesler on a special Benchmark podcast to figure out what's new and what's not.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Can a nation's entire economy fit on one smartphone app? In China, that day is almost here. More than 700 million Chinese -- more than double the entire U.S. population -- use WeChat. It's an all-purpose super-app that does the job of Facebook, Uber, Paypal, Tinder and many other apps, making it an invaluable tool for the Asian nation's rising middle class. That's helped give WeChat's parent Tencent, a stock-market valuation larger than any other company outside the U.S. -- even bigger than Wal-Mart. But does WeChat actually contribute to China's GDP? Or are there better ways to measure its value? Economist Gan Li, who splits his time between the U.S. and China, and Dune Lawrence, a former Bloomberg correspondent in Beijing, join Kate and Scott to pin down the answers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than a decade after the first Internet boom, U.S. productivity growth has stagnated and the economy has been unable to break out of 2 percent expansion. This situation is testing even the most optimistic of forecasters, but in contrast to our recent guest Robert Gordon, MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson is unbowed. Brynjolfsson -- who's also director of MIT's Initiative on the Digital Economy, and co-author of the book "The Second Machine Age" -- joins Daniel Moss and Scott Lanman to explain why he thinks the current wave of advances in technology means we don't have to worry about secular stagnation after all.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sometimes the monthly U.S. jobs report delivers a clear signal on the labor market and the economy. This is not one of those times. Fortunately, the Bloomberg Benchmark crew is here to talk about the burning questions raised by the latest report, including the implications for the Federal Reserve and what the wage numbers mean. In this special bonus episode of the Benchmark podcast, reporter Jeanna Smialek joins hosts Dan Moss and Scott Lanman to break it all down.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Happily ever after doesn't come cheap in the U.S. Couples looking to tie the knot pay an average of about $30,000 between things like caterers, flowers and photographers to capture the day. But why is it that weddings cost more than other large-scale parties? In this week's Benchmark, former White House economic adviser Austan Goolsbee explains how the concepts that we learned in freshman year economics class determine why celebrating eternal love costs so much. Kate Smith is also joined by guest host Brian Chappatta, a government bonds reporter at Bloomberg News and soon-to-be married man, who gives us his experience in planning a wedding.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When phone companies implored U.S. customers in 2003 to text more because they were lagging behind the rest of the world, it was all over. Almost. While we're used to a dizzying array of new apps each month and new "sharing economy" companies such as Uber and AirBnB transform the way we do business, one of the greatest periods of U.S. productivity was already behind us by 2005. The little gadgets we're addicted to now are nothing compared with the invention and adoption of the electric light, indoor plumbing and the automobile. That's according to Robert J. Gordon, author of "The Rise and Fall of American Growth" and a professor at Northwestern University. There's not much on the horizon to change all that, Gordon tells Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss. But take heart: A recession isn't likely anytime soon!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.