Trumponomics

Around the world, women are having far fewer children than they were 50 years ago. This decline in fertility threatens to cause falling populations in many countries, which weighs on economic growth because it means fewer workers who can produce goods and services. In the first of a two-part episode of Benchmark, Scott Lanman talks with Elizabeth Katkin, author of the new book "Conceivability," about why it's so hard for many couples to overcome struggles with fertility -- and how countries differ on their approach to the issue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. and China are on the verge of a trade war, one that President Donald Trump says will be easy to win. So how will it really impact China's economy? Is the nation's GDP really growing at an incredible 7 percent rate, or is it about to collapse from a mountain of debt and aging population? Jeff Kearns, a Bloomberg editor who just finished a three-year stint in Beijing, helps separate myth from fact with host Scott Lanman, himself a former China economy editor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Globally, women make 50 percent less than men. In the U.S. and U.K., it's about 20 percent. Why? What are some countries trying to do to fix it? And is this even possible? Rebecca Greenfield, host of Bloomberg's "The Pay Check" podcast, joins Scott Lanman to discuss some of the findings and stories from her show.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the U.S. jobless rate at the lowest level since 2000, where can employers turn to fill positions and keep up with demand? There's a huge corps of Baby Boomers and slightly younger Americans who are perfectly willing to do so. But businesses may need to overcome their inclination to go younger -- and if they do, it could prove profitable for them and the economy. Jean Setzfand of AARP and Keith Hutchison of energy utility National Grid talk with Bloomberg's Scott Lanman and Chris Condon about the benefits of employing older workers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

No need to be caught off guard by the latest tweet from Donald Trump about tariffs and China. The underlying nature of Western economic links with the Asian nation today follows a pattern set by events almost 200 years ago. Britain, then the world's pre-eminent industrial power, wanted to reduce its trade deficit with China and muscled Beijing to reduce barriers. The result was a conflict that weakened Imperial China irrevocably, but framed President Xi Jinping's view of foreign relations. Stephen R. Platt, author of a new history of the opium conflict, speaks with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion about how much -- and how little -- has changed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. is producing more oil than ever. So why are oil prices rising so much that a gallon of gasoline now costs almost $3? Wasn't shale oil supposed to make OPEC irrelevant? How much higher can prices go, and how is it all impacting the global economy? Javier Blas, chief energy correspondent for Bloomberg News, discusses all this and more with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In Argentina, the cost of borrowing is shooting up to stratospheric levels with interest rates rising to 40 percent. The country's leadership promised a new era that put this sort of trajectory behind it. But now, Argentina finds itself in talks with the International Monetary Fund for loans to shore up its finances. Federico Kaune, head of emerging markets fixed income at UBS Asset Management, tells Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion how Argentina got to this point, how the country can make it right and how this is part of a larger challenge facing emerging markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listeners are probably familiar with China's economic and strategic ambitions in the South China Sea. But have you heard about what China is up to in Vanuatu? (Hint: It's not the beaches.) China is pouring money into this South Pacific nation by investing in local infrastructure projects. That's got the region's traditional powers, the U.S. and Australia, breaking out in a sweat, and it’s raising eyebrows in France, a colonial power. Jonathan Pryke of the Lowy Institute explains to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion what’s at stake. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s a big, expensive, global mystery. Why do women still make less money—a lot less—than men? In the US, the average woman makes 80 cents to every dollar a man makes. Launching May 9, the Pay Check is an in-depth investigation into what that 20 percent difference looks like. In this miniseries we'll show you how the gender pay gap plays out in real life. We'll hear from Lily Ledbetter, Mo’Nique, and a lot of other women who weren’t happy to be paid less. We'll find out what happens when a whole country tries to tackle the pay gap. And we'll talk to some women who are taking things into their own hands.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S. unemployment rate may be at the lowest level since 2000, but some economists want the federal government to go further and guarantee a job for every American. Several potential Democratic presidential candidates support the idea, but the plan faces plenty of hurdles, from how to pay for it to how it would actually get up and running. Economics professor L. Randall Wray, one of the plan's principal authors, and Evercore ISI analyst Ernie Tedeschi discuss the issue with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From self-driving cars to robot-powered factories, artificial intelligence is taking over significant pieces of the global economy. But while this is good news for the businesses incorporating robots into their workplaces, it also means more and more people will lose their jobs to computers. Joshua Gans, co-author of the recent book "Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence," explains to hosts Scott Lanman and Christopher Condon what this shift means for the economy, and how it will also impact issues like inequality, monopolies and geopolitical competition. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, oil was the major determinant of which countries rose to -- and lost -- power in the global economy. Today, that commodity increasingly is water. This week on Benchmark, we hear about the water crisis in Cape Town, where authorities are warning they may need to turn off the taps, from local Bloomberg editor Robert Brand. Then, we take a journey through global water issues with Helen Mountford of the World Resources Institute. They speak with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been a wild ride for investors in the U.S. stock market these past couple months. Yet for all the chaos on Wall Street, Main Street seems to be doing fine. So are equities signaling trouble for the economy, or will this storm blow over? Jim Paulsen, a veteran market strategist with a doctorate in economics, gives his take to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What if it's not the economy, stupid? The Great Recession and the long, moderate expansion that's followed gets blamed for a lot of political upheaval. But, William Galston of the Brookings Institution says that's a misreading. The former adviser to President Bill Clinton tells Bloomberg News' Jeanna Smialek and Bloomberg View's Daniel Moss that the populist wave moving across the world is also born out of anxiety about immigration. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You've heard about Xi Jinping now becoming China's leader for life. But did you know about his new economic team? They are the ones who could help direct -- or deflect -- a possible trade war between the U.S. and China. China economy expert Nicholas Lardy gives the lowdown on these men to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It may be hard to remember, but not too long ago, hailing a taxi in many cities was often a hassle. Ever since companies like Uber and Lyft entered the world, it's become a lot easier for consumers to catch a ride -- and a lot tougher for drivers to make a living. Henry Farber, a Princeton University economist, joins Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View to explain the dynamics of this industry -- and how it may be upended once again by driverless cars.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum don't add up to a trade war. It's more like a frontier skirmish. But, what would a real conflict look like? Who would win and who would lose? Shannon O'Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations joins Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View to explore these questions, and what tariffs might mean for you.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The North American Free Trade Agreement has been labeled everything from an unfair deal for U.S. workers to a boon for commerce across the continent. Less well known is that it's helped cause a big expansion in Mexican waistlines. Simon Barquera, executive director of the Nutrition and Health Research Center at Mexico's National Institute of Public Health, explains the nation's rise in obesity to Scott Lanman and Bloomberg intern Shelly Hagan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Maldives, known as an exotic and luxurious tropical vacation spot, is fast becoming one of the world's most important geopolitical footballs. China is investing heavily in the island chain in a bid for economic and strategic supremacy, stoking the ire of India -- just miles away. Eurasia Group's Shailesh Kumar explains to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View how this honeymoon destination got caught up in a great-power rivalry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Decrypted returns on March 6th with a brand new season. Here's a sneak peek of what's in store. We'll be releasing new episodes every Tuesday starting next week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a crisis in coffee. On Java, the Indonesian island that gives your morning shot its nickname, the bean is struggling. A booming Asian middle class is spurring demand just as climate change is eroding farmland and changing the taste along the way. Indonesia is now being forced to import coffee from Brazil and Vietnam just to keep up. It's a bit like Saudi Arabia importing oil. Jamal Gawi, a climate change consultant in Jakarta, explains what's going on to Bloomberg News' Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost one-tenth of Denmark's labor force is made up of foreign workers. But with quality of life standards increasing in eastern European countries, many of these people are considering returning to their native nations. Karen Haekkerup, CEO of the Danish Agriculture and Food Council, talks with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View on what this means for Denmark, which is already facing a severe labor shortage.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This month, Bloomberg is excited to bring you a brand new show. Every Friday on What'd You Miss This Week, we'll feature the most interesting interviews from Bloomberg's daily market close show, "What'd You Miss" hosted by Scarlet Fu, Julia Chatterley and Joe Weisenthal. We want to take you beyond the headlines and bring you a unique perspective on the week's top stories, and those you may just have missed. It's the perfect way to kick off your weekend. Be sure to subscribe now, so you don't miss a thing!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Amazon, JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway recently announced they're joining forces to tackle America's expensive health care system. Health care is probably the most reliably growing piece of U.S. GDP -- and until recently, a strong driver of inflation -- but that could change as Amazon moves into that space. Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News speaks with Bloomberg reporter Spencer Soper and economist Laura Rosner of MacroPolicy Perspectives about Amazon's history of disrupting industries, and whether or not our current health care system could go the way of bookstores.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You may have heard of a gender-pay gap in America, but here's a statistic that's really eye-opening: Workers at men's apparel stores earn 56 percent more than employees at womenswear retailers. It's a huge gap, and yet it can be explained in part by supply and demand -- and could even be a sign that worker pay will finally pick up more broadly across the U.S. Bloomberg reporters Katia Dmitrieva and Lindsey Rupp join Benchmark to discuss the topic with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What happens to someone's land when the owner dies? In Japan, no one knows. In fact, no one knows who owns more than 10 percent of the nation's landmass -- about 16,000 square miles, equivalent to the size of Denmark. Without knowing who owns the land, it can't be sold or redeveloped -- and that limits economic growth or prevents the government from collecting taxes, at a time when Japan is already suffering from severe depopulation outside of major cities. Bloomberg reporter Yoshi Nohara discusses the issue with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An online discussion board where women are frequent subjects of vitriolic attacks. A lack of diversity in top positions. Strong evidence of discrimination against females. These are all issues that the economics profession is grappling with as part of a broader reckoning with sexual harassment and misconduct in American society. Economist Heidi Hartmann discusses these issues and her petition drive to address misogyny in the field, while Bloomberg reporter Jeanna Smialek talks about her recent coverage of this topic with Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View and Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The American South will keep rising and Dallas will eclipse New York. The city that never sleeps has had its obituary written plenty of times, but it may just have met its match in native son Donald Trump. His tax-cut law is more than just a deficit-busting giveaway to the rich; it affirms the economic and political rise of the South. Even New York's famed cultural and intellectual scene is in jeopardy along with financial primacy. Jared Dillian, publisher of the `Daily Dirtnap' and a Bloomberg View contributor explains how to Dan and Scott. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whether the U.S. tips into recession this year or not, chances are you won't hear about it until well after it happens. That's because the decision on whether the economy is in a serious slump or merely having a bad day rests with a little-known group of academics who deliberate behind the scenes. Ten years after the economy entered the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the group's chair, Stanford University professor Robert Hall, gives Dan and Scott an inside look into how the panel makes its calls -- and shares his thoughts on whether another recession could be in store soon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What will be the most surprising economic development of 2018? Who will be the most influential people that you haven't heard of? What kind of non-economic developments will have biggest impact? Benchmark delivers answers from around the world in part two of our year-end special. Joining Dan and Scott to give their picks are three members of Bloomberg's global economy team: European editor Jana Randow, Latin America editor Vivianne Rodrigues and Asia correspondent Enda Curran.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What was the year's most surprising economic development? Who were the most influential people that you haven't heard of? What were the non-economic developments that had the biggest impact? Benchmark goes around the world to deliver the answers in part one of our year-end special. Joining Dan and Scott to give their picks are three members of Bloomberg's global economy team: European editor Jana Randow, Latin America editor Vivianne Rodrigues and Asia correspondent Enda Curran.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

America's GDP is growing at an amazing 3 percent! Unemployment is at the lowest level in 16 years! The stock market is reaching a new record high every day! The U.S. economy is just going to keep on booming, right? Well, not so fast. The stock market might be surging, but the bond market is painting a more nuanced picture. David Ader, chief macro strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence, joins Dan and Scott for a tutorial on Treasuries. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wait! There wasn't a trade war this year. Wasn't Donald Trump's election supposed to mean a rejection of open commerce between nations? Bloomberg's Andrew Mayeda explains the surprise increase in goods and services exchanged across national boundaries. Don't think the protectionist bullet's necessarily been dodged; there's more going on than just Trump. Arancha Gonzalez, executive director of the International Trade Center tells Dan and Scott what more needs to be done. Gonzalez shares her perspective on China's expanding role in the international system and opines on Xi Jinping's big speeches in Davos and Geneva.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For many women and an increasing number of men, it's been hard to get a job again if you take some time off for family reasons and have a long gap on your resume. But that's starting to change in the U.S., where the unemployment rate is at the lowest in almost 17 years. With the labor market getting tighter, companies are looking at potential workers they previously might not have considered. Carol Fishman Cohen, a consultant who helps companies develop programs for returning workers, shares her story of returning to work after having four children and talks about how she is getting companies to take a look at more workers like her. Bloomberg reporter Craig Torres also joins to explain the trend to Dan and Scott. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Money goes where it's treated best. That simple truth is a big reason why more and more money—trillions, in fact—flows into a powerful, low-cost tool that's quietly transformed investing in recent years. Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, let you invest in everything from the stock market to gold like never before. This podcast will demystify them—and delight you in the process.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Benchmark takes the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday and re-runs an episode from March. Post-industrial Midwestern America helped propel Donald Trump to the nation's top job. You've heard that a hundred times. But did you hear about St Louis? A wave of Bosnian refugees, many of them Muslim, arrive in the city, starting in the mid-1990s. The result: a surge in business and job creation, revitalization of the community and help in the transition from a manufacturing to a service economy. Sadik Kukic tells Dan and Michelle about his journey from Balkan concentration camps to a pillar of the local community: He's now president of the Bosnian Chamber of Commerce. What could be more American?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Figuring out the global economy has always involved looking at the data. But only in recent years has big data, such as that contained in satellite imagery, become a factor in helping understand what's going on. One place where it's particularly useful is China, where official figures are far less comprehensive than in the U.S. and most other developed nations. It's also provided badly-needed insight into poverty across Africa. Scott and Dan get the scoop from UC-Berkeley professor Joshua Blumenstock and Bloomberg China economy editor Jeff Kearns. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By picking Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chief, President Donald Trump is making a historic gamble that his five predecessors did not: appointing a new leader of the central bank in his first term instead of retaining the existing one. That move could have massive ramifications for the U.S. and global economies. But how did the Fed get so powerful? And how powerful is it really? Peter Conti-Brown, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, joins Scott and guest host Chris Condon, a Federal Reserve reporter at Bloomberg, for a deep dive into the Fed's history and how Powell fits in. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mexico just didn't see it coming. The free-trade backlash and anti-Mexican rhetoric that helped fuel Donald Trump's rise came as a surprise to officials and executives in the U.S.'s southern neighbor. Now they are scrambling to save not just NAFTA, but an entire economic model based around global supply chains and ever closer ties with the U.S. Thrown into the mix are elections in Mexico that could propel their own populists into the presidency and congress. Shannon O'Neil from the Council on Foreign Relations explains the stakes to Dan and Scott. Intriguing footnote: Maybe the NAFTA debate is really about China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The biggest challenge refugees face is economic. A couple of financial market insiders are here to help and have recruited some of the biggest names on Wall Street. PIMCO's Greg Sharenow and Trailstone's Michelle Brouhard tell Dan and Scott about their foundation, Interfaith Refugee Project, and how to integrate refugees into the U.S. economic fabric. It's also personal: Greg describes his grandmother's flight from 1930s Germany through Panama.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

How do you create a new country? For Catalonians looking for independence from Spain, secession can give you an emotional high, but what about the bills? Every nation needs a sense of identity and community, of shared heritage and geography. That won't feed people. There's revenue to be collected and bills to be paid, not to mention possibly issuing currency and creating a central bank. And don't forget about picking up the trash. Bloomberg's Maria Tadeo and Maxime Sbaihi explain the building blocks of statehood to Scott and Dan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Before Hurricane Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico three weeks ago, the U.S. territory's economy was already in shambles, thanks in part to an overload of debt and decades of misguided policies. Now, after a terrible storm, things are much, much worse for the 3.4 million people there, and they're likely to stay that way for a while -- though measuring just how bad is the tricky part. Bloomberg reporter Jordyn Holman shares her recent experience reporting there, and Arthur MacEwan, an expert on the territory's economy, tells Scott how it got so bad in the first place. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Saudi Arabia may be best known for its vast supply of oil, but outside of that industry, Islamic tourism is one of the kingdom's biggest businesses. Hajj, the annual Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, as well as other Muslim pilgrimages throughout the year, have been driving growth in tourism, with a building boom to match. The country is seeking to remain a destination, while liberalizing its ultra-conservative rules such as the ban on female drivers. Scott is joined by Siraj Datoo, a Bloomberg editor in London, to discuss his recent hajj experience and the economics of the pilgrimage, as well as Donna Abu-Nasr, a Bloomberg reporter who covers the Middle Eastern economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some of the planet's most powerful people may be out of a job in the next two years. Beginning in the next few months, terms start ending for the central bankers who control the price of money in the world. First Janet Yellen, whose term ends February. Up next, Haruhiko Kuroda in April. England's Mark Carney departs in 2019 as does Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank. How many of them will survive and, if they depart, what will be their legacy? Guest Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, walks Dan and Scott through the horse race. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

North Korea seems an unlikely place for capitalism to take hold. But markets are playing a bigger role in daily life in the country. While that's created a degree of economic stability in the short run, it's also inexorably undermining the power of the state and making ruler Kim Jong-Un more vulnerable over the longer term. What role does the economy play in the outcome of today's nuclear standoff? Professor and author Byung-Yeon Kim explains to Dan and Scott.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A troubled company threatens a nation's entire economy. It's not Lehman Brothers a decade ago -- and it's not even a bank. No, this time it's Agrokor, Croatia's dominant food maker -- and its potential collapse could even extend Russia's influence in Eastern Europe. Scott and Dan get the scoop from Bloomberg reporters Luca Casiraghi and Jasmina Kuzmanovic.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As India and Pakistan celebrate their 70th birthdays, Benchmark looks at the economic partition of colonial India into the two independent nations. The violence and human tragedy that accompanied the division has been widely chronicled. Less discussed, but no less important, is the economic divergence between the two. How did Pakistan's economy stumble after a promising start? What happened to India in the early 1990s that led it to take off after a sluggish couple of decades? Faris Khan tells Dan and Scott about his own family's journey to Pakistan while Nisid Hajari injects a note of caution into India's bullish assumptions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Western Capitalism is supposed to thrive on Joseph Schumpeter's idea of creative destruction. Yet few companies really nurture creativity. Beancounters loom, ready to take away the canvas that the next big thing is sketched on. Take heart: Thinking about art can help business and finance executives get to Point B. They don't always have to know what Point B looks like before they begin. New York University Professor and author Amy Whitaker explains why to Dan and Scott. Along the way she shares anecdotes about investment bankers in pinstripes mucking it up in a London studio. And how did Oscar-winning `Dallas Buyers Club' almost not get made?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is Thucydides's trap and how does it foretell the future of U.S.-China economic ties? Much has been said about China's strategic challenges to America. Less talked about is the financial tussle between the two. Harvard's Graham Allison walks Dan through his latest book and explains why a conflict is more likely than many people imagine. Along the way, Allison talks about North Korea and how dealing with a "nutty regime" fits into the broader competition between Washington and Beijing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is the U.S. debt ceiling, where did it come from and why does it matter? This time the familiar Washington ritual has a twist. And investors are starting to anticipate something new: The most critical of deadlines may be missed. How can this happen when the White House and Congress are controlled, nominally, by the same party? Why even have a debt ceiling? Special guests Alex Harris and Brian Chappatta join Dan to explain that this time it actually could be different.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.