Trumponomics

Buckle up. Global financial leaders warn that the current era of expensive money is likely to stick around for at least another year, and maybe longer. Easing up on interest rates now would only embed high inflation in people's assumptions, and "that's where it becomes very long-lasting," says former UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber. In this special edition from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, three experts in banking and monetary policy share with host Stephanie Flanders why central bankers will be battling inflation in the short term as well as the long. In the US, there's little doubt the Federal Reserve will bump up interest rates again this year, says Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. "For 2023, the question is more about how long are you going to keep these rates at the levels that they've moved them to. And we see a need to keep it at over 4% for all of 2023 to be able to bring inflation down durably,'' Gopinath said. Globally, changes in the supply chain and the transition to a greener economy will drive up energy costs and could lead to structurally higher inflation, said Davide Serra, chief executive of asset manager Algebris Investments. As usual, the poorest are most in jeopardy. Already, about 60% of low-income countries are in high-debt distress, Gopinath said, and while a systemic debt crisis has yet to materialize, she warns these are "very risky times."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors were floored when China started cracking down on homegrown tech giants like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. in late 2020. They shouldn't have been, argues Kendra Schaefer, an expert on Chinese tech policy with Beijing-based Trivium China. For almost 20 years, the Chinese Communist Party has struggled to understand how its sprawling internet and financial technology industry fit with a socialist market economy, and things finally boiled over two years ago, Schaefer says. Increasingly, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his party want technology firms to meet "state-directed goals," she says. In this special edition from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, we dive into the complexities of Chinese economic policy. One of the more recent challenges for investors and foreign businesses operating in China is a lack of good intelligence, Schaefer tells host Stephanie Flanders. There's been an "exodus" of Chinese policy experts since the pandemic began, she says, partly because of restrictions on travel inside the country. Schaefer herself recently relocated to the US from Beijing. For now, many foreign companies have been confused by recent aggressive moves out of Beijing and powerless to do much about it. While investors were befuddled by new regulations on China's big tech firms, behind the scenes the country was increasingly uneasy with their power and apparent lack of interest in Communist Party objectives. Instead of "disrupting pizza delivery," tech giants should focus more on developing high-end computer chips, Schaefer says, citing the opinion of party leaders. Meantime, manufacturers have seen production grind to a halt at the slightest spread of Covid-19. For sure, some companies have talked about mitigating risk and diversifying outside of China. However, leaving altogether is hardly an option for many. Duplicating the country's supply chain would take 10 years, so "people are just doing their best to hedge their bets," Schaefer says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the past few decades, the world's economic and political leaders were spoiled by relatively low inflation and minimal borrowing costs, a supercharged economy in China driving demand and generally modest geopolitical tension. But as we know, all of that has changed. With inflation soaring, Chinese growth slowing and Russia waging war on Ukraine, Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik contends the pillars that long underpinned rising prosperity have shifted. This week, the podcast is coming to you daily from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, where corporate and political leaders are discussing vexing issues like sustainability and the fragile supply chain. In today's edition, Orlik shares with host Stephanie Flanders why the current challenges will play out over years, instead of months. First, even if inflation in the US ticks down to 4% by mid-2023, that will still be "way outside the Federal Reserve's comfort zone," Orlik says. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he'll raise interest rates until inflation subsides, but the risk is he'll ease up if unemployment gets uncomfortably high, Orlik warns, since any improvements in inflation could reverse. The second pillar, China's previous annual growth rate of almost 10%, may settle in closer to 4%, and even that could be too optimistic, says Orlik. Finally, while Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden lowered the temperature between the two nations on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, left unresolved was the US effort to restrict the sale semiconductors to Chinese customers. On that note, during one of the forum's sessions Tuesday Senior Minister of Singapore Tharman Shanmugaratnam urged restraint on the part of both the US and China. Tariffs do no one any good, he said, while nations should protect their own national security without trying to limit other nations' economic growth. ``You can't prevent China from emerging as a major player in the global economy and in the global technology space," Shanmugaratnam told Flanders.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Having children isn't only expensive, but it also puts a serious dent in your social calendar. Data show many single, childless women in the US are traveling freely and earning more money, including more than their single, childless male counterparts. But when too many people forgo kids, it raises questions about the future workforce and whether it will be able to adequately fund benefits for the elderly. Increasingly, nations are grappling with how to encourage people to have children while enabling them to live their lives as they wish. In this episode, we explore the subject of birth rates from two very different angles, and from opposite ends of the globe. In the US, editor Molly Smith shares the story of Anna Dickson, a 42-year-old from New York who's traveled to Alaska, Switzerland and Anguilla in the past year. It's something she probably couldn't have done if she had kids, she says. Likewise, a growing number of American women are making the same choice to forgo children, and they're reaping economic benefits. As of 2019, single women with no children had an average of $65,000 in wealth, or $8,000 more than similarly situated men, Smith finds. Stephanie later chats about birth rates and government policy with Isabel Sawhill, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. The total cost of raising a child in the US now exceeds $300,000, and that doesn't even include soaring college costs, Sawhill says. Despite those expenses, Congress has been lax in passing legislation to support families, she says. What's more, states with the most restrictive abortion laws also tend to be ones with the weakest social safety nets. In the Philippines, reporter Siegfrid Alegado says there's a different dilemma, given that it has one of the highest birth rates in Southeast Asia. Women there have 2.5 children on average, which is far higher than in many advanced nations. This threatens to exacerbate poverty among the urban poor and in the countryside, Alegado says. And any effort by new President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to encourage women to use family planning faces a distinct challenge, namely that the largely Catholic country has historically frowned on contraception. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Voters in Brazil just took a leftward turn in electing former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, ousting the far-right populist incumbent. Next week, polls show US voters may move in the opposite direction, dealing a blow to Democratic President Joe Biden and his party. This week's Stephanomics episode explores the economic and political winds in two of the world's largest nations. First, Flanders talks US midterms with Anna Wong, Bloomberg's chief US economist, and reporter Nancy Cook. Overall, the US economy is functioning better than it appears to those focusing on inflation, with a strong job market and high balances in bank accounts, Wong says. Yet, high prices have a way of making consumers feel things are gloomier than they are, and that's not good for Democrats. And if Republicans seize control of one or both houses of Congress, Cook notes that will spell the end of meaningful economic legislation from the Biden administration until the end of the term. Next, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro explains the challenges facing Lula after his defeat of Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil has seen progress this year on inflation, with rates falling from 12% to an expected 5.6% next month. However, economists note the improvement is less impressive than it seems, generated in large part by tax cuts instead of real changes in the economy. Meantime, the new president will be under pressure to deliver on campaign promises to cut taxes for the poor, increase them for the rich and provide a minimum income level for the most needy. In a follow-up discussion, analyst Richard Back of XP Investimentos in Brazil shares with host Stephanie Flanders why he thinks Lula is likely to propose moderate economic policies, despite his progressive reputation. With many acolytes of Bolsonaro still in Brazil's National Congress, Lula knows he cannot be "radical or revengeful," Back says. International investors see the new president as someone who "will make distortions, but he's not the guy that will blow everything."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ahead of next month's crucial US midterm elections, Democrats would usually be counting on the support of labor unions, historically a key constituency for the party. And unions are having a moment in this late pandemic era, with successful organizing drives among Starbucks baristas and Amazon warehouse workers. But despite President Joe Biden's efforts to woo them, many union members are showing a lack of enthusiasm for Democrats that may undercut the party's bid to keep control of both houses of Congress. In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, reporter Katia Dmitrieva provides a dispatch from the traditional union stronghold of Macomb County, Michigan. Biden, who promised to be the most pro-union president ever, has followed through to an extent by regularly touting their importance while creating a labor task force, enacting its proposals and helping secure a deal that may yet avert a damaging railroad strike. Still, some workers in this Detroit-area county say they hoped for more. Democratic efforts to raise the federal minimum wage struck out in a sharply divided Congress, and the PRO Act, legislation to strengthen collective bargaining, has stalled. In the words of one Starbucks barista, who helped unionize her store, the Biden administration's efforts have been "a little bit performative." Then Stephanie speaks to University of California, Berkeley economist Bradford DeLong about his new book, Slouching Towards Utopia. DeLong argues that the 20th century essentially started in 1870, a technological turning point after which production was rapid enough that (at least theoretically) we could bake a large enough economic pie to provide for all. The fact that, in the real world, everyone doesn't have enough is a symptom of our failure to distribute goods and services equitably, DeLong observes. Getting in the way of that goal as well are human foibles including a desire to distribute wealth to their children and a related disdain for inheritance taxes, as well as abhorrence of people who appear to be getting a free ride, he says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As Xi Jinping embarks on his third term as China's president, the world's most populous nation has lost some of the zeal for growth, experimentation and global collaboration that defined it two decades ago. In its place, both Xi and China are focusing on security above everything else, argues Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik. Today, Beijing is "fighting with the US, fighting against pandemics, trying to secure what it has rather than open up and explore new opportunities," Orlik says. Everyone else is left trying to figure out how to cope with this less-freewheeling China. On this week's Stephanomics, we delve into the present and future of China's relations with the rest of the world following the Chinese Communist Party Congress. First, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Orlik about what a third term of Xi means. It's arguable China isn't in immediate danger of slipping into bad governance, and that--for all the economic turmoil of its "zero Covid" policy--China has done a better job protecting citizens from the coronavirus than the West. In the long term, though, there are dangers. Vital positions in China's central bank or its Ministry of Finance could be staffed by old-guard bureaucrats instead of dynamic reformers, Orlik says. Next, reporter Carolynn Look and editor James Mayger share how Europe's own relationship with China is fraying over reports of Chinese human rights abuses and anger over aggressive trade tactics against Lithuania. Still, for all the handwringing, few European companies show signs of scaling back investments in China. Finally, we reflect on an alarming speech by Scottish-born historian Niall Ferguson at a recent Group of 30 conference. He argues that, while everyone's worried that the 2020s will see a repeat of the inflationary 1970s, we may be fortunate if that's all that happens, given the prospect of economic calamity and global war.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If the combination of inflation, Russia’s war on Ukraine and a surging dollar don’t send the world into recession, disastrous policy mistakes surely could. That’s the increasingly gloomy outlook among some who gathered in Washington this week for meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Institute of International Finance. One pessimist, Martin Wolf, a longtime columnist at the Financial Times, predicts a deep downturn in Europe, one that includes the UK. That country has been dragged down by a leadership team Wolf calls “mad, bad and dangerous.” This week’s episode delves into the dicey economic and political climates enveloping three continents. First, Wolf joins host Stephanie Flanders to discuss Europe at the IIF’s annual membership meeting, where he unloads on UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng for their panned efforts to enact tax cuts—which created chaos in the British bond market and sent the pound plunging. Beyond the UK’s borders, natural gas prices that have soared thanks to the Kremlin’s war will pull Europe into contraction, Wolf said. But there’s a brighter scenario, according to Flanders. If it’s a mild winter and natural gas prices fall faster than expected, Europe could end up with too much gas. Then, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro details how politicians across Latin America are struggling to avoid protests over inflation that’s reached double digits in some nations. Already, people have blocked highways in Panama, rioted in Ecuador and demanded state assistance for the poor in Peru. Finally, we hear from reporter Colum Murphy, who reveals how the Chinese Communist Party tries to keep foreign journalists in the dark. The party holds its congress in Beijing next week for the first time in five years, and Murphy will be looking for the smallest clues that party members still support President Xi Jinping. In a country where few dare speak out, Murphy said reporters glean what they can from the level of applause to Xi’s speech, which lines get the most attention and whether the party gives him another official title to the three he already holds.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The UK's politics and policies have always been a bit quirky. But international investors have long trusted that the country would, in the words of prominent British economist Malcolm Barr, see itself from point A to point B. Lately, those investors could be forgiven for calling that premise into question. A series of unforced errors by new Prime Minister Liz Truss and her financial team have shaken confidence in Britain's leadership at a time when its public is reeling from soaring energy and mortgage costs. In the first episode of this season's Stephanomics podcast, we deliver a triple dose of UK turmoil. First, Bloomberg UK political editor Kitty Donaldson details Truss's arguably terrible debut. Donaldson spent the week at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, where some of the prime minister's fellow Tories are "hopping mad" after tax cuts proposed by Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng spooked financial markets and sent the pound to its lowest level since 1985. In an embarrassing U-turn, Truss had to scrap her plans to cut the 45% tax rate on top earners. Next, Stephanie Flanders talks with Barr about what the market chaos means for the UK (both now and later) as well as its trading partners and investors. Head of European economics for JPMorgan Chase & Co., Barr argues that some of the guardrails that have steered British politicians toward sound, orthodox economic decisions in the past have fallen away. An independent central bank, a proficient civil service and functioning parliamentary oversight have all been undermined to the point that it's "hard to imagine a similar set of errors having been made by any incoming administration over the last 15 to 20 years." Finally, Bloomberg Senior Editor Brendan Murray takes us to Liverpool, where dockworkers say they're missing out as the port city bustles with tourists and expensive new soccer stadiums. They're staging a strike to demand higher pay amid soaring inflation and interest rates, and for now, have the sympathy of the public.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Young people unable to buy homes because of stratospheric price increases are cheering the downturn in some housing markets around the world. But they'd better be careful what they wish for: Frothy housing prices, empty office buildings and even a refusal to pay mortgages by many Chinese have the potential to turn a global economic slowdown into something much worse. In this season's final episode, we explore the confounding real estate market, where prices in many countries have reached unsustainable levels despite a global pandemic. First, reporter Maria Paula Mijares Torres relates the struggle many low- and middle-income Americans face following rent increases averaging 14% nationwide, with some places like Miami seeing a 41% spike. About 8.4 million people in the US are behind on rent payments, and with the end of many Covid-induced eviction moratoriums, advocates for the poor fear a surge of people will be made homeless. Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah crunches price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to determine which housing markets are the frothiest. Topping his list are New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Australia and Canada, with the US coming in seventh. While the subprime-fueled financial crisis is still fresh in some people's minds, better mortgage quality and the growth of fixed-rate mortgages means "there is some hope that we are not going to see the worst of this," Shah says. Stephanie talks global real estate risks with John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and author of "The Fearful Rise of Markets." The commercial real estate market is "probably the single greatest cause for concern," Authers says, particularly in New York. For developers there, a sharp increase in the supply of commercial real estate in recent years, a steep drop in occupancy rates and rising borrowing costs have created a very tricky situation. Meantime, he sees China navigating its way around a domestic property crisis without triggering a global financial crisis, though not without risks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite all the highfalutin advances in automation and just-in-time inventory, Covid-19 has still managed to upend the world's supply chains. But all this pandemonium may be a dress rehearsal for future chaos, courtesy of challenges such as political unrest and the climate crisis, warns one author who's tracked the global flow of goods. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the problems plaguing the retailers, warehouse operators, truckers and shippers who labor to get widgets from factory floors to your doorstep. First, reporter Augusta Saraiva explores why everything from baby formula to Teslas can still be hard to find in the US, even though the epic West Coast container ship backlog has eased. In part, consumers are to blame since they've continued buying at levels far beyond what analysts had expected, given 9.1% inflation and fears of a potential recession. Meantime, importers are fighting over scarce capacity on trucks, ships and in warehouses, creating additional backlogs. One company was so spooked by delays last year that by April it already had 600 containers of artificial Christmas trees waiting at the Port of New York and New Jersey. In a follow-up discussion, Stephanie talks about how supply chains got so fragile with Christopher Mims, author of "Arriving Today," which traces advances allowing for same-day delivery. Mims argues that efficient supply chains that were developed before Covid-19 struck weren't battle-tested for pandemics, wars and extreme weather. While unionized years ago, truckers today are largely non-unionized, and as a result earn about two-thirds less in real terms than truckers did 40 years ago. They are also burning out quickly from 14-hour days, Mims says. Alternately, a unionized longshoremen workforce has resisted automation, creating some of the world's least efficient ports. Eventually, supply chains will have to shorten, Mims says, with corporations bringing production in-house or nearshoring it to neighboring countries.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dispirited by pandemic lockdowns and a massive real estate crisis, today’s young Chinese workers are dreaming less about becoming super-rich entrepreneurs and more about the workaday lives of bureaucrats. Their new distaste for private-sector jobs has caught the attention of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which is trying to change opinions and recruit for private-sector manufacturing jobs that are going begging. In this week’s episode of “Stephanomics,” reporter Tom Hancock discusses the unrest brewing among China’s youth. Many have newly minted degrees and a growing number have embraced anti-capitalist idealism, exacerbating a mismatch between the jobs that are available and the jobs they actually want. Meantime, younger workers see the country’s state-owned enterprises as more stable than privately-owned ones amid Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, creating intense competition for public-sector jobs. The upshot is the jobless rate among China’s youth is likely to hit 20%, which has alarmed President Xi Jinping’s government. Host Stephanie Flanders talks to Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik about the outlook for the world’s biggest country. He says China likely has been overstating its growth for years, giving critics reason to question how big its economy actually is right now. But China’s leadership has proven it can develop that economy, and “it would be a big mistake for us to underestimate how big they will likely become in the next 10 or 20 years,” Orlik says. And, Flanders also talks worker wages with Rachel Reeves, who as the UK’s Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer is the chief economic voice of the opposition Labour Party. It’s a risky topic to address since Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey got lambasted last winter for suggesting workers forgo seeking pay raises because they might be inflationary. Reeves wouldn’t say what a reasonable increase for workers would be, given ongoing discussions over pay by UK authorities, but suggested the trick to giving everyone a raise is boosting the economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The global appeal of Italy’s fashion, food and sports cars long ago proved that the country’s businesses have few equals when it comes to marketing abroad. But selling Italians themselves on the merits of the nation’s economy has been a bigger challenge. Italy’s politicians, central bankers and academics contend the global capital of style can’t reach its full potential until it persuades more of its own citizens to seek employment. In this week’s episode of “Stephanomics,” reporter Alessandra Migliaccio explores why 2.6 million Italians who could be looking for work aren’t. Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco discusses how the country has one of the lowest labor force participation rates in Europe, and that demographic trends aren’t likely to make things better. The number of Italians between 15 and 64 is expected to fall by 5 million over the next 15 years, with many of those remaining living in the nation’s economically disadvantaged South. To be sure, other countries have seen workforce challenges throughout the pandemic. But Italy faces unique structural problems, Rosamaria Bitetti, an economist and lecturer at Luiss University in Rome, tells host Stephanie Flanders. First, Italians tend to spend more time in school and away from work, partly because the nation’s university system encourages students to linger, Bitetti said. Other challenges include a dearth of childcare providers and a growing elderly population that relies on younger generations for care. Finally, economist Nouriel Roubini (nicknamed Dr. Doom for his often ominous predictions) lives up to his billing as he warns that the US, UK, euro zone and other advanced economies have little hope of avoiding recession. During a talk at the recent Qatar Economic Forum, Roubini said the combination of Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, a Chinese Covid-zero policy that’s hurting supply chains and loose monetary and fiscal policies suggests “a situation similar to the 70s.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US Supreme Court’s decision last week to overturn the federal right to an abortion will have profound effects on American women. And while prime ministers and presidents of the UK, France, Belgium and New Zealand criticized the ruling as a setback for women’s rights, it’s actually part of what observers call a global retrenchment when it comes to gender equality. In this week’s episode we explore the economic and societal fallout of the end of Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling holding that there is a Constitutional right to abortion, and how it fits with that worldwide trend. First, reporter Katia Dmitrieva shares the story of Jane, a Honduran immigrant living near Dallas who induced an abortion through pills she obtained from a friend through the mail, a practice prohibited in Texas even before last week’s decision. Jane (not her real name) answers phones for a construction company that doesn’t provide paid time off or health benefits. She has neither the time, nor money to care for a child. Reverend Daniel Kanter, senior minister at the First Unitarian Church of Dallas, has called efforts to restrict abortion “a war on the poor.” Next, host Stephanie talks with Ngaire Woods, dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, about how many countries are rolling back protections for women’s rights. Even developed nations with robust laws, including the US and UK, are seeing declining rates of prosecution for rapes, Woods says. Meantime, women politicians are often subjected to a level of personal attacks on social media rarely endured by their male colleagues. Finally, reporter Claire Jiao shares how some Southeast Asian nations (among others) are trying to make the remote working trend more permanent. While many travelers would love to log into work from the beaches of Bali, they or their companies have feared the potential tax consequences. Jiao finds that Thailand is creating a long-term visa for remote workers that frees them from any tax obligations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the US, UK and other wealthy nations grouse about the prospect of stagflation and risk of recession, people in some emerging nations are facing more perilous questions about how to find medicine to stay alive. A financial crisis gripping Sri Lanka’s 23 million people threatens to spread across the developing world and sweep up hundreds of millions more. This week, we explore profoundly different economic climates. The first are emerging markets exemplified by Sri Lanka and burdened with pandemic-related debt, double-digit inflation and food shortages; the second is Qatar, an already rich petro-state that’s getting richer thanks to a global energy crisis. Reporter Sudhi Ranjan Sen surveys the chaos in Colombo, where protesters angry with 40% inflation and days-long waits for fuel and cooking gas are demanding the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In the words of one Sri Lankan woman who was unable to find pharmaceuticals for her parents: “It’s really hard to see somebody die without medicine, because you have the money, you don’t have a place to buy the medicine.” For the wider world, the risk is that Sri Lanka’s financial crisis spreads to other developing nations that also face high debt levels, rising interest rates and weakening currencies. Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg's chief emerging markets economist, counts five countries most at risk of following in Sri Lanka’s footsteps: Tunisia, El Salvador, Ghana, Ethiopia and Pakistan. Lenders to Sri Lanka stand to lose half of their investment, Daoud tells host Stephanie Flanders, but it’s unclear how the island nation will treat its debts to China. In the past, China has been unwilling to join multilateral agreements to write down debt. But what happens if other lenders forgive much of Sri Lanka’s debt, while the nation makes good on what it owes China? Finally, correspondent Simone Foxman relays the remarkable turn of events in Qatar, which this week hosted the Qatar Economic Forum. Until very recently, analysts questioned the wisdom of Qatar’s plan to boost its liquefied natural gas exports by 60%, at a cost of $30 billion. Where analysts figured Qatar was overestimating demand, Russia’s war on Ukraine has European nations lining up for Qatari energy. Meantime, the Persian Gulf nation is readying its stadiums ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Doha, set for November and December. By one estimate, the nation has pumped $350 billion into badly needed infrastructure and other improvements ahead of the games. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US inflation is at a 40-year high and the UK is effectively in recession as demand slows for Chinese-made goods. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, though addressing the British economy, could have been speaking for the whole world when he said in a recent interview that “we’re going to have a difficult period, and we’ve got to be absolutely clear with people it is going to be difficult, and the government cannot solve every problem.” On the heels of a massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, this week’s episode of “Stephanomics” tackles the bumper crop of trouble facing the globe’s central bankers—not to mention finance and trade ministers. First, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik, who says the Fed’s 75 basis point hike in interest rates was necessary to help cool inflation, but it doesn’t address the root causes of spiraling prices. To do that, the Fed would have to persuade Saudi Arabia to boost oil production, Russia to stop blocking Ukraine’s wheat exports and Taiwan to produce more semiconductors. What’s more, the Fed’s move is likely to boost borrowing costs for emerging nations and likely won’t prevent a US downturn, Orlik says. While it may duck one this year, a recession by 2023 “is going to be pretty hard to avoid.” Next, correspondent Lizzy Burden discusses why the UK may want to brace for a sustained downturn rather than a short one. Consumer confidence has declined to levels last seen in the 1970s and the housing market is cooling. So even if Britain avoids two quarters of contraction, Burden says, “almost every other economic metric is screaming slowdown.” Finally, reporter Enda Curran reports on how Chinese manufacturers are also feeling the pinch from inflation and rising interest rates faced by their US and European customers. While it hardly qualifies as a trade recession since consumers are still spending, Chinese manufacturers such as Prime Success Enterprises, a maker of pop-up swimming pools for dogs, warn that demand is drying up. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Much of the appeal of McDonald’s comes from the chain’s consistency. A cheeseburger in the US or a McSpicy Chicken in India should taste the same every time. But what if a business had wildly different outcomes depending on which leader was making decisions? Renowned psychologist Daniel Kahneman calls this variability “noise,” and suggests controlling it is key to ensuring the best decisions get made. In this week’s episode, Stephanie interviews Kahneman, a best-selling author and professor emeritus at Princeton University, and Olivier Sibony, a professor of strategy at HEC Paris, about their new book, “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment.” (Their co-author is US legal scholar Cass Sunstein of Harvard Law School.) Kahneman and Sibony argue businesses often wrongly assume their decisionmakers will make similar judgments given similar circumstances. Kahneman relates an experiment he conducted with an insurance firm and dozens of its underwriters. It’s fair to predict underwriters would reach similar conclusions about a case’s risk and put a similar dollar value on it, right? Wrong. Kahneman found judgments often varied by 50%, or five times the divergence one would reasonably expect. Silencing that noise often means adopting good decision “hygiene,” the authors said. Many job interviews start with employers having an initial impression and spending the rest of the interview justifying it. Instead, companies should use structured interviews with standard questions that might help disprove false impressions, Kahneman said. And while many firms use artificial intelligence to weed out job candidates, they’re likely doing themselves a disservice, Sibony said. Too often, the algorithms themselves are faulty, he said. “My worry is that companies are using this mostly to save time and money, not to actually improve the quality of their decisions,” Sibony said.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It seems like things could hardly get worse for President Joe Biden, who faces 8.3% inflation, a baby formula shortage and, according to the latest Gallup poll, a 41% job approval rating. Not to mention managing a global face-off with Russia. But now it looks as though another crisis is forming in his backyard. The US is hosting the Summit of the Americas next week in Los Angeles, and Mexico and a few other Latin American nations are threatening to boycott, and even block any progress it might yield. In this week's episode Mexico City reporter Maya Averbuch explains the fight over the summit, during which the White House plans to raise the fraught topic of immigration. A key conference holdout has been Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who says he'll stay away unless representatives of authoritarian governments in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua are invited. The US has refused, citing their undemocratic records. In turn, the leaders of other nations, including Guatemala and Honduras, have said they may skip the summit as well. In a follow-up discussion, managing editor Juan Pablo Spinetto talks with Stephanie about the drama-filled history of these summits and whether Mexico's president will eventually attend. They also explain why there's a good chance rising interest rates in the US won't trigger a crisis in Latin America as they have so often in past.  And we end the episode with some revealing research from the McKinsey Global Institute on what it says drives workers' "human capital," or their collective knowledge, skills and experience as measured by lifetime earnings. For all the fanfare over training and education, on-the-job experience accounts for at least half of gains in lifetime earnings, according to institute head Sven Smit. The more new jobs and experiences a worker accrues, the more their earnings will rise, he tells Flanders.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While the world's multimillionaires and billionaires (and multibillionaires) ponder inflation and supply shortages in the Swiss Alps, they might get a better view from the dusty landscape of Midland, Texas. Residents of the oil town have lived through inflation around 10% or higher for six months. Even worse, the forces driving up prices there may take months or even years to unwind. Bloomberg reporter Katia Dmitrieva takes listeners to that West Texas boom-and-bust community, home to the highest inflation rate among roughly 400 metropolitan areas tracked by Moody's Analytics. While there, she meets an excavation company owner who's run out of heavy-duty pickup trucks and bulldozers because of supply-chain shortages. Nurses are in such short supply that a local health-care company is paying $280 an hour to get them on contract. And the line of cars waiting at the West Texas Food Bank is longer than it's been since the worst days of the ongoing pandemic. Back in Davos, host Stephanie Flanders chats about deglobalization with economist Richard Baldwin, a professor at Geneva's Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. He's skeptical that trade actually is fragmenting, arguing that China is the "OPEC of industrial inputs" and that "you can't shut off OPEC." Finally, Flanders talks global commerce at the World Economic Forum with the head of the World Trade Organization and the European Union trade commissioner, as well as officials with the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry and US-based logistics firm Flexport.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Touted as a potential prime minister not long ago, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak's star has been falling fast of late. Some of the blame can be placed on inflation hovering at a 40-year high and embarrassing headlines about his rich wife's taxes. To resurrect his political career, Sunak may want to help Britons out of their financial funk while persuading them he's not disastrously out of touch.  Sunak tells Stephanie how the UK government is trying to alleviate the pain inflicted by 9% inflation. It's providing about £350 ($431) in energy bill discounts to families while also providing families with about £100 in relief by cutting fuel duties. Still, the efforts may be too little too late, as the average family is seeing a £2,100 increase in its cost of living, according to Bloomberg estimates.  It didn't help matters that Sunak's wife, Akshata Murthy, daughter of an Indian billionaire, was forgoing paying UK taxes on her overseas earnings, which while technically legal is arguably terrible politics. "I do think part of being a good husband is not presuming to dictate to my wife what to do, because she's an independent person and I support her decisions,'' Sunak says.  Also, in a discussion from Bloomberg's New Economy Gateway Latin America forum in Panama City, Panama, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet speaks about troubling abuses in Venezuela, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Haiti, as well as efforts to hold Vladimir Putin accountable for war crimes in Ukraine. Finally, she calls the potential end of federal abortion rights in the US a "massive setback for women's rights."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The old axiom about the sins of the father being visited upon their children got a shocking rebuttal this week, when Ferdinand Marcos Jr. won a landslide victory in the Philippines's presidential election. Whether Marcos will embrace progressive economic and social values or take after his father, the late dictator and kleptocrat Ferdinand Marcos, is anyone's guess.  Singapore-based Bloomberg Opinion columnist Daniel Moss explains how the younger Marcos deftly sidestepped press interviews and avoided revealing any policy preferences during his campaign. That ambiguity and a strong social media strategy helped to "if not erase, then dilute the memory of his father's period for a huge chunk of voters,'' Moss tells host Stephanie Flanders. Marcos comes into power at a precarious time. The Philippine economy has been far more robust than those of its neighbors, but its embrace of Chinese investment could backfire if China's economy continues to decline. In a second segment, Bloomberg's chief U.S. economist, Anna Wong, explains how China's slowdown might provide at least a little relief to the US's inflation woes. And, Rome-based economy reporter Alessandra Migliaccio takes listeners to bucolic Trevinano, Italy, where local leaders hope an injection of money from the European Union will help turn the hamlet into a center for tourists and artisans and stem years of depopulation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Persistently higher inflation and interest rates are probably in the offing as the world transitions to a greener economy. That’s hardly a selling point for politicians pushing climate-friendly policies, but it’s one they’ll have to cozy up to, says Isabel Schnabel, an executive board member of the European Central Bank. Unfortunately, she adds, before politicians will show enough urgency toward the threat of global warming, “it really seems that bad things have to happen.” On this week’s episode, Schnabel tells Stephanie about the financial consequences of the green transition, as the world moves away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. Eventually, she sees energy costs from solar, wind and other renewable sources falling below today’s prices for oil, gas and coal. But in the interim, people can expect traditional energy prices to rise as producers have less and less incentive to invest in fossil fuels. There’s also likely to be a spike in lithium, copper and nickel prices as green energy companies expand, Schnabel says. Finally, the massive investment needed from governments and the private sector to make the transition happen will probably lead to higher interest rates. Still, procrastinating isn’t an option. “Waiting makes everything much worse, much more costly in economic terms,” Schnabel says. In a related report, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Jonathan Levin shares how people in Miami don’t seem to be heeding the looming threat posed by the climate crisis. Despite rising sea levels, the tourist mecca’s real estate market is soaring and buyers seldom see disclosures about future flood risk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s hard to imagine a more chaotic world than the one we’re in right now—what with Russia’s war on Ukraine, a Covid-19 pandemic that won’t quit and the lockdowns spreading across China as a result. Now, add to the mix a debt crisis that’s threatening to cripple emerging markets. In the words of a former International Monetary Fund official earlier this month, “We can see this train wreck coming towards us.” Washington-based reporter Eric Martin explores a burgeoning economic crisis in the developing world, one exacerbated by the debt loads assumed by low-income nations as they try to cope with the coronavirus. In Tunis, a mother of two children relates how she comes away empty-handed when out searching for sugar and oil; and in Rio de Janeiro, a market vendor shares his struggle to buy vegetables in a nation with 12% inflation. All told, 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it, according to the World Bank.  In a follow-up discussion on the crisis, Tim Adams, chief executive of the Institute of International Finance, tells host Stephanie Flanders about the particular risks facing Turkey and Egypt, both heavily dependent on food imports and reeling from fallout from the war. Finally, in a dispatch from France, reporters share why President Emmanuel Macron has precious little time to celebrate his victory over far-right opponent Marine Le Pen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When visiting El Salvador, be sure to bring sunscreen, a long-lens camera to memorialize its bountiful biodiversity and … Bitcoin. But have some U.S. dollars on hand just in case local merchants don’t accept it. On this week’s episode, we dive into the disparate ways in which global leaders approach digital currencies, from the Salvadoran embrace to the tentative exploration by central banks. Tiny El Salvador, population 6.5 million, was the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender, providing a test case for its widespread use. Bloomberg reporter Michael McDonald filed a dispatch from the Central American nation after testing Bitcoin at various restaurants, rental car agencies and street vendors. While some transactions went through just fine, McDonald reports, many Salvadoran merchants have sworn off crypto and are sticking with the country’s other legal tender, the U.S. greenback. Elsewhere, Stephanie finds central bankers and economists to be more circumspect about whether and how to create central bank digital currencies. Such crypto would be regulated by a country’s central bank and theoretically offer price stability. In a discussion sponsored by the Bank for International Settlements, a central banker from Sweden, the chief executive of Santander Bank and a Yale University finance professor weigh in on how to protect consumers while exploring this alternative form of payment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last year, Larry Summers famously shot down one of the Federal Reserve's favorite buzzwords, "transitory." This year, he's taking aim at "soft landing."The Harvard University professor, former Treasury secretary and paid Bloomberg contributor says a combination of high inflation and low unemployment historically has spawned a recession. So, he's skeptical that the Fed can chart a path that will see the country out of its inflationary funk without causing an economic downturn. Once again, Summers is more pessimistic than his peers, with economists pegging the chance of recession in the next year at just 27.5% in a recent Bloomberg survey.This week, Summers shares his thoughts on why the Fed needs to be more willing to acknowledge what he calls its monetary policy failures. He also comments on why he thinks some recent Biden administration moves to ease prices increases will be ineffectual, and about why he thinks Americans need to sacrifice more in order to punish Russia for the "worst threat in 75 years of naked aggression."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We may live in a global economy, but beyond the war in Ukraine, what's front-of-mind for policymakers in the U.S., Europe and China is very different. For China it’s Covid-19; for Europe, it’s the price of energy; and for the U.S., it's inflation. In the first episode of the new season, Stephanie Flanders takes us on a tour of the world economy, opening a window on the top concerns in all three regions. Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik reveals what’s behind his growth forecasts and how geopolitical tensions may affect globalization. Senior Reporter Shawn Donnan visits Indiana, where the red hot jobs market has laid bare the reality of finding workers for U.S. factories, and the perks needed to get them in the door.In Europe, reporters Carolynn Look and Jana Randow explore how Russia's invasion is overturning long-held views on both economic and foreign policy. And finally, Chief Asia Economics Correspondent Enda Curran turns his gaze to his long-time home of Hong Kong, and questions its future path amid increasingly aggressive interventions by Beijing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With his poll numbers falling, U.S. President Joe Biden is under pressure to do something—anything—to get inflation under control. That’s led his administration to scrutinize the prices you pay at the grocery store, even if some critics argue alleged price-gouging by consumer products giants is a convenient bogeyman.This week’s episode dives into the debate around corporate consolidation and whether it’s giving too much power to those companies. First, Bloomberg editor Molly Smith visits a New Jersey butcher shop where the owner suspects greedy multinational firms are behind the doubling of prices for some cuts of meat. The companies are pleading innocent, blaming instead labor shortages and soaring demand. But Bill Baer, a former antitrust chief at both the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission, sides with the butcher. He tells host Stephanie Flanders that some companies in concentrated industries are boosting prices well beyond just covering their extra costs.Finally, Rome-based reporter Alessandra Migliaccio reports on the “Groundhog Day” nature of the Italian government, with its long history of cyclical political crisis, salvation, infighting and crisis again. With Prime Minister Mario Draghi potentially leaving his post to become Italy’s next president, a more ceremonial role, many worry it won’t be long until the cycle begins again. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When facing an economic crisis, the Fed's playbook normally skews toward juicing the economy too much rather than too little. After all, in the last go-round in 2007, being too stingy might have helped trigger a depression. Fifteen years later though, America's central bankers face the opposite problem: they need to move fast to cool inflation.That's one of the takeaways from a panel discussion among economists this week, moderated by Stephanie. With U.S. inflation at 7%, the Fed needs to do more than expected, said Bill Dudley, a former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and senior adviser to Bloomberg Economics. Dramatically raising interest rates by a half-point in March is worth a look, Dudley said, though unlikely to happen. Meantime, Bloomberg chief U.S. economist Anna Wong explains why U.S. workers, who've gone missing lately, are likely to rejoin the labor force soon. And, chief global economist Tom Orlik shares why President Xi Jinping isn't about to let China's economy implode while he seeks to cement lifetime power. Finally, on a lighter note, reporter David Hood shares everyone's frustrations with the IRS, where customer service is so bad that some tax professionals are hiring robots to wait in line for them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Closed schools. Empty shelves. Workers out sick. Almost two years after Covid-19 overturned the U.S. economy, "it's like deja vu all over again,'' in the words of baseball great and eminent wordsmith Yogi Berra. This week, we dive into how the omicron variant is likely to disrupt plans across America this winter. But we also explore how another country is bouncing back, as Stephanie chats with French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire about his nation's robust economic comeback. But first, senior reporter Shawn Donnan gets a firsthand look at omicron's disruption at a Washington-area pizzeria. He explains why one economist likens the current infection surge to the "mother of all winter storms," one that cancels flights and causes supermarket shortages of everything from chicken to tofu. Next, we size up French President Emmanuel Macron's reelection chances this spring and a campaign centered on the nation's humming economy. Le Maire tells Flanders that France's employment rate, its highest in 50 years, is a sign of Macron's success. Paris-based economics reporter Will Horobin shares why the nation's economic recovery may sway France's voters more than its culture-war clashes. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With shortages at the grocery store and not enough people willing to work, 2022 is starting to look a lot like 2020. But beneath the ugly exterior, the world's economies have learned to cope with Covid's fallout, and the supply chain debacle in particular. One country is even thriving. In the first episode of the new year, we offer two fairly optimistic assessments. Bloomberg Senior Editor Brendan Murray shares with Stephanie Flanders how companies are adapting to the fast-spreading omicron variant and finding ways to function as more workers fall ill. He also explains that the success of China's zero tolerance policy may determine the length of the supply chain crisis.We then travel to Mexico and the Chihuahuan Desert, where U.S. companies can't build factories fast enough. Tired of backups at Los Angeles-area ports and no-shows by American workers, manufacturers are moving production to the booming border town of Ciudad Juarez, Bloomberg manufacturing reporter Thomas Black reports, in a pandemic victory for Mexico's economy. Finally, Tokyo-based economics reporter Yoshiaki Nohara brings us a dispatch about the side effects of moving toward a greener future. Japan's leadership is trying develop its renewable energy industry by putting offshore wind farms near places like Iki island, off Japan's southwestern coast. But fishermen worry the noise and radio waves will drive away all the fish and cripple their industry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While still recovering from a coronavirus-induced recession, the U.S. may be rushing into a new downturn, this time thanks to inflation. Its economy faces no shortage of potential peril in 2022, Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik says, with the Federal Reserve looking set to raise interest rates to fight rising prices, and as Congress seems unlikely to pass any more big spending bills. That's one of the takeaways from the Stephanomics global preview of 2022, in which Stephanie and a panel of experts look into their crystal balls for political and economic insights.On the political front, French President Emmanuel Macron looks poised to win reelection in France next spring, but U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a 40% chance of losing power, with "strong upward pressure" on that number, says Mujtaba Rahman of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. In the U.S., the fate of President Joe Biden and fellow Democrats may depend on inflation. With midterm elections on the horizon, they could be toast if it lingers too long, Bloomberg White House reporter Nancy Cook says.Bloomberg Green editor Aaron Rutkoff sees Biden being powerless to improve U.S. emissions if he can't get the climate component of his Build Back Better agenda passed. And Orlik sees a novelty in the U.S.-China relationship, where China will probably go its own way and cut interest rates while the U.S. raises them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economically at least, this holiday season feels a bit more like it belongs to Ebenezer Scrooge than Santa Claus. Amid a resurgent pandemic, there are shortages at the grocery store and the highest inflation in almost 40 years. So who better to sum up 2021 and forecast 2022 than Larry Summers, whose contrarian warnings about inflation have, at least at this point, largely proven accurate.On this special holiday edition of Stephanomics, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary shares with host Stephanie Flanders how he arrived at his prediction that inflation would run higher than most everyone else expected, and why he fears "we are already reaching a point where it will be challenging to reduce inflation without giving rise to recession.” Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid Bloomberg contributor, also explains why he thinks "running the economy hot" is unlikely to help U.S. workers get a larger slice of the economic pie.If inflation isn't enough to further dampen your spirits, Summers also tells Flanders why the nation may see a double whammy of recession and "secular stagnation," an unappealing mix of weak growth and persistently low interest rates.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The so-called great resignation that’s confounding businesses in the West has a counterpart in a most unlikely place: China. This week, we offer a double dose of China’s “lie flat” movement, which is challenging the nation’s historic industriousness, as well as a glimpse into how America’s massive pandemic bailout juiced spending, especially among historically disadvantaged groups.First, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock explains why many Chinese workers are suddenly whiling away the hours playing online games instead of toiling on the factory floor. After years of clocking in at 9 a.m. and clocking out at 9 p.m., six days a week, some are saying enough is enough. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shuli Ren shares how President Xi Jinping isn’t amused with this trend. China’s leadership meanwhile is eager to stop pumping out so many university graduates, preferring instead to steer youth into vocational training and high-value manufacturing. The hope is to replicate Germany’s success.Next, data reporter Andre Tartar unearths some revealing credit and debit card numbers to show how government payments during the pandemic boosted spending by Black Americans as much as 40% over 2019 levels. For a time at least, it shrunk the nation's persistent racial wealth gap. Finally, Hong Kong reporter Oanh Ha shares why some big food producers are betting that soon you may be getting some of your protein from crickets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It seems nothing can hurt the world's billionaires, not the worst pandemic in a century or a global recession. On this week's podcast, New York-based reporter Augusta Saraiva shares how the wealthiest only added to their fortunes as Covid-19 killed millions and flattened economies. Indeed, the super-rich accumulated $4.1 trillion just as 100 million of the planet's less fortunate fell into extreme poverty, according to estimates by the World Bank. Two years into the pandemic, some 2,750 billionaires now control 3.5% of the world's wealth -- almost double the holdings of the planet's poorest 50%, according to the Paris-based Global Inequality Lab. For those whose holdings don't reach ten figures but must still buy holiday gifts, Hong Kong-based economy reporter Enda Curran reports on the run-up in toy prices. He visits the maker of the Mighty Megasaur Megahunter T-Rex, who warns that consumers will shell out as much as 20% more this year because of the supply chain pinch. And finally, we provide a double dose of German politics as Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down following 16 years in office. Berlin-based producer Aggi Cantrill reports from the German parliament while Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, explains why Germany's smooth transition of power is so different from the kind of rancor that has befallen the U.K. and U.S. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Initially, Jerome Powell said the highest inflation in decades was going to be "transitory." This week, the world's most powerful central banker said the nebulous term should be retired. Such is the high-stakes guessing game going on at the Federal Reserve and the world's central banks, which risk losing public confidence should inflation continue to prove less, well, transitory than expected.This week, Stephanie delves into the messaging strategies of both central bankers and American corporations. First, Stephen King, a British economist and senior economic adviser to HSBC, suggests Powell's openness to cutting support for the U.S. financial system is meant to reestablish trust with the public by signaling a willingness to tackle inflation. Next, U.S.-based economics reporter Matt Boesler details the selective messaging of U.S. corporations, where profits are up 37% over last year despite rampant CEO complaints about wage inflation.Finally, Geneva-based economics reporter Bryce Baschuk shares how the debate over intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines is a chance for the World Trade Organization to become relevant again.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week we unpack two very different challenges facing global leaders: the climate crisis and domestic violence. First, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry joins host Stephanie Flanders to share why he thinks the Glasgow Climate Pact is more than just words on paper. Among other achievements, Kerry notes that countries representing most of the world’s gross domestic product agreed to cut methane emissions by 30% this decade. Such cuts to this dangerous greenhouse gas (if they actually happen) would be a worthy accomplishment, even if rich nations have yet to fulfill a pledge to steer $100 billion a year to poorer nations facing the brunt of climate change.As countries try to cut carbon, whether by a tax on emissions or other measures, leaders can limit the effects on inflation by adopting the measures sooner rather than later—when more drastic measures may be needed, Bloomberg’s senior Euro-area economist Maeva Cousin says.Finally, Frankfurt-based economics reporter Carolynn Look shares the harrowing story of a German woman who escaped a violent partner and how some European companies are stepping forward to fight domestic abuse. They have a financial imperative as well as a moral one: gender-based violence is estimated by the European Institute for Gender Equality to cost the European Union economy 366 billion euros ($409 billion) a year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As if rising sea levels and fiercer cyclones weren't enough to worry about, the climate crisis is already cutting crop yields and could lead to widespread food shortages. That's the grave warning from the United Nations, which cautions that farmers won't meet a projected 50% increase in food demand by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions stay high. In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders tackles how to feed almost 10 billion people, the projected population of the planet in three decades. She turned to four leaders in global agriculture at Bloomberg's New Economy Forum in Singapore for their insight. Technology will play a starring role, says Werner Baumann, chairman of German healthcare and agricultural giant Bayer AG. One Bayer project involves developing "short-stature" corn that resists stalk breakage and can be planted more densely. Cargill Inc. Chairman David MacLennan insists genetically modified organisms must be part of the solution, though GMOs are a controversial component of modern agriculture with significant opposition.Finally, the panelists had some ideas regarding a tweet from the world's richest man, who last month offered to put up $6 billion if a UN official could prove the money would solve world hunger. Sara Menker, chief executive of agricultural analytics firm Gro Intelligence, suggests Elon Musk's money would be best spent creating a new financial institution to help modernize how many crops are traded. More fundamentally, Musk's money could build roads and crop storage facilities so farmers in developing nations could more easily get their products to market, says Alloysius Attah of Farmerline, which helps farmers embrace technology.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One by one, countries that sought to stamp out Covid-19's spread with aggressive lockdowns are giving up zero-tolerance policies and learning to live with the virus. The most notable exception is China, which has decided to cling to the strategy. This week, the new attitude among many nations toward the coronavirus is getting a major test in Singapore, host of Bloomberg's New Economy Forum. The city-state recently experienced its biggest flare-up of the pandemic. In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders discusses Singapore's determination to move forward with the annual meeting of political, business and academic leaders with NEF editorial director Andrew Browne. In many ways, Singapore is intent on signaling it's open for business and that "remaining in lockdown just wasn't an option,'' Browne says. It's a gamble that others in the region are now taking, including New Zealand, which had been widely praised for containing the virus via severe restrictions on daily life, but hasn't been able to shake a steady infection rate.For now, China is bucking the shift away from zero-tolerance. It's still willing to shut down at the slightest hint of an outbreak. However, the approach is coming at great cost to its economy, Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik tells Flanders. With China also facing threats from energy shortages and distress in its giant real estate industry, the country's traditional 6% or 7% annual growth could be halved in 2022, Orlik warns.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robots may replace us eventually, but for now Covid-19 has revealed just how desperate businesses are for workers of the human variety, and the broader economic consequences of that desperation. Companies are raising wages to attract talent, which in turn is helping boost inflation. It hit 6.2% in the U.S. last month and is running at 8.1% in Russia.This week, Bloomberg reporters on two continents share how and why workers are slow to return to the office, factory and field. First, New York-based economics reporter Jill Shah explains the mystery behind the U.S. labor market, which at once has millions of unemployed and as many as 11 million openings. A few of the reasons? Some are waiting to land a remote job, others can't find childcare--and at least a few are trying to make a living trading cryptocurrency. Meantime, Moscow-based reporter Áine Quinn finds Russia's labor shortage is more easily explained. Many migrant workers from Central Asia left during the pandemic and didn't return, while the nation's high infection and death rates has many Russians staying home. Finally, Stephanie Flanders discusses the labor shortage's lasting effects with Jason Furman, a professor of the practice of economic policy at Harvard University. History tells us that many long-term unemployed will see their skills erode, leaving them at a competitive disadvantage, Furman says. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As if controlling spiraling inflation wasn’t enough to worry about, the world’s central bankers are under increasing pressure to help solve climate change, income inequality and myriad other societal ills. What’s more, elected officials in some nations are trying to exert more power over bankers for political ends.Stephanie Flanders debates the proper role of a central banker with three esteemed women economists, Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank, Carmen Reinhart of the World Bank and Minouche Shafik of the London School of Economics and Political Science. While bankers can’t be the “white knight” who rushes in to save the world from global warming or income inequality, they can use their bully pulpit to prod slow-moving politicians to act, Shafik says. Schnabel goes a step further, arguing that tough talk alone won’t suffice, and that central bankers should use what economic levers they have available to advance important causes.Of the three economists, Reinhart raised the most concern about inflation, currently running at an annual rate of 5.4% in the U.S. and 4.1% in the euro area. Yes, the world needs to address the climate crisis, she says, but nothing will stop the green economy faster than high prices, which may lead to tighter monetary policies and a steep drop in financing in developing nations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than a decade after the U.S. subprime crisis sparked the Great Recession, the threat of default at giant property developer Evergrande is raising the prospect that ghost towns of unoccupied homes could trigger a China property slump. On this week’s podcast, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock visits Evergrande to see how the company is trying to raise money and avoid default, including by trying to sell its headquarters. Guest host Tom Orlik delves into the issues with Rhodium Group Director Logan Wright and Bloomberg economist David Qu, a former financial stability regulator at the People’s Bank of China.And finally, with Halloween just around the corner, Orlik ponders the scariest risks to the global economy with three Bloomberg economists: Anna Wong in Washington, Dan Hanson in London and Ziad Daoud in Dubai. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Central bankers are in a precarious spot in this chaotic pandemic economy. U.S. and U.K. consumers are grousing about rising prices and want some relief. But if government officials give it to them by raising interest rates, they may set back the recovery. It wouldn’t be the first time an errant move by a central bank triggered a recession.This week, Stephanie Flanders helps listeners navigate the perils of monetary policy with David Wilcox, Bloomberg’s director of U.S. economic research, and Jamie Rush, Bloomberg's chief European economist. Wilcox, who formerly directed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s research division, explains why the central bank is more worried that inflation will run too low over the long term, and less worried about the current 5.4% annual rate. Meanwhile, Rush argues that the Bank of England “lost its nerve” and is taking too aggressive an approach in battling price increases. And, in a dispatch from Brazil, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro shares why a new mobile payment app called Pix has overtaken the nation of 213 million people faster than expected, with everyone from small business owners to panhandlers accepting it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An old debate in economic circles is whether Europe’s strong safety net and worker protections are preferable to America’s more company-friendly labor rules. Now this classic argument is getting a fresh look, as economies on both sides of the Atlantic bounce back from pandemic work-stoppages. The U.K. and many euro-area nations adopted generous furlough programs that subsidized worker wages after Covid-19 halted business, and consequently kept workers on payrolls. The U.S., meantime, allowed companies to fire employees and then compensated the newly jobless workers with unemployment insurance payments.This week Stephanomics podcast, Bloomberg reporters Carolynn Look in Frankfurt and Reade Pickert in Washington share the ups and downs of the European and American approaches to pandemic worker relief. By one measure, Europe’s furlough strategy proved superior: the euro area’s unemployment rate peaked at 8.6% last year, far lower than the U.S.’s 14.8% high. Finally, Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics shares with Stephanie Flanders why he prefers the euro area’s approach. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Breakthrough, a new series from the Prognosis podcast, we explore how the pandemic is changing our understanding of healthcare and medicine. We start with an examination of long Covid, a mysterious new illness that has stumped doctors attempting to treat symptoms that last for months and potentially years. It has changed the way hospitals work and forced healthcare officials to prepare for the next pandemic. Covid has also opened the door to revolutionary technology: messenger RNA vaccines. It’s a technology that never could have been proven so quickly outside the crucible of that first pandemic year, 2020, and it holds big implications for the future of medicine. Breakthrough launches on Oct. 19. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, more than 60 container ships sat anchored off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, waiting for their chance to unload as makers of everything from board games to bicycles sweat the looming holiday season. How did the world’s supply chains get so snarled? In the first episode of the new season of Stephanomics, reporters, manufacturers and economists across three continents explain the myriad problems plaguing shippers and offer a sobering prediction for the near future.First, Enda Curran, Bloomberg’s chief economics correspondent in Asia, takes us to Hong Kong, where a coffee machine manufacturer must wait up to nine months for key electronic components to arrive. Meanwhile, the cost of moving one container from Asia to the U.S. has risen from $2,000 at the start of the pandemic to $20,000. Next, U.K.-based economy reporter Lizzy Burden shares why one of the world’s most advanced economies could find itself with a shortage of fuel and food this winter, a problem exacerbated by Brexit and new rules on worker visas.Finally, Stephanie Flanders gets a taste of how U.S. restaurants are coping with a shortage of both supplies and waiters. Celebrity restaurateur Willie Degel and HSBC trade economist Shanella Rajanayagam explain why supply shortages haven’t improved despite the accelerating reopening of the global economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve is theoretically above the fray in Washington, but in these hyperpartisan times both Democrats and Republicans are keen to keep the chair's seat in their camp. As a result, President Joe Biden has a tough decision to make this fall in whether to retain the central bank's current chair, Jerome Powell, who happens to be a Republican. On this week's podcast, host Stephanie Flanders delves into Biden's options with Bloomberg Fed reporters Craig Torres and Rich Miller. Also on this week's episode, Bloomberg senior editor Brendan Murray cruises the River Thames to share how the Port of London, once the world's busiest, is regaining some of its past glory. And, Zurich-based economics reporter Catherine Bosley, Dublin-based reporter Peter Flanagan and Dublin bureau chief Morwenna Coniam explain why European tax havens are so stressed over a proposed global minimum corporate tax rate.That U.S. politicians are debating Powell's fate may be a bit perplexing, given his fans in both parties and that many contend he did a good job steering the economy through the first 18 months or the pandemic. Still, some progressives fault him for being too lax in regulating Wall Street and not vocal enough when it comes to income inequality and Black unemployment. If Biden sticks with Powell, it would be another signal that he's serious about bipartisanship. One possible maneuver discussed on this podcast: keep Powell in place, but fill three other board seats with candidates more to the left's liking. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the not-too-distant future, every time you buy a cup of coffee, someone somewhere might know about it. That’s an unnerving prospect as private companies and central banks experiment with digital currencies. On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders explores the promising and disconcerting future of Bitcoin and its brethren with Cornell University Senior Professor of Trade Policy Eswar Prasad, author of the forthcoming book “The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance.”Also on this week’s episode, Singapore-based economics reporter Michelle Jamrisko and Hong Kong-based economist Chang Shu explain how low fertility rates in China and elsewhere in Asia are imperiling economies there. And Madrid-based economics reporter Jeannette Neumann visits Valencia to show how Spain and France are trying to help small businesses emerge from the pandemic intact. Digital currencies, including cryptocurrencies, pose a “fundamental threat” to central banks around the world because they cut banks out of the picture, Prasad said. Governments are developing their own digital currencies, which could give payment systems extra credibility and boost consumer confidence. But Prasad, a leading expert in this arena, warned that a significant downside to adoption will be privacy: Banks will be monitoring currencies for illicit use and “anything digital is going to be traceable.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Criticism from the right regarding U.S. government aid to unemployed workers has intensified of late, with governors in some Republican-leaning states putting an early end to the extra $300 in weekly payments. Their stated intention was that more jobless Americans would look for work if they can’t count on the extra cash. But for some workers—especially parents with young children—barriers to re-entering the labor force remain, and the loss of those additional dollars is adding to their problems. On this week’s podcast, Bloomberg economics reporter Olivia Rockeman explains how a lack of childcare options is keeping many women out of the job market. Rather than abusing government aid, many came to rely on the payments while they searched for suitable employment. The U.S. economy had a record 9.2 million open jobs in May, and getting many of those positions filled will require helping working parents find someone to watch their kids. In a second segment, guest host and Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik explores the details and likely effects of President Joe Biden’s sweeping order aimed at promoting competition, with input from reporter Anna Edgerton and University of Tennessee College of Law Professor Maurice Stucke.Finally, Vietnam-based economics reporter Nguyen Uyen explains why thousands of workers in the Asian export hub are sleeping on factory floors to keep production going during a Covid-19 surge.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China’s climb to the top of world economic rankings is considered a foregone conclusion in many circles, especially those inside the Chinese Communist Party. But all is not assured: Beijing faces economic and demographic challenges that make surpassing the U.S. less of a no-brainer than one might think.On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders steers a lively debate on global domination between Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik and George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. At present, China’s $14.7 trillion gross domestic product is 70% of America’s $20.9 trillion economy. In China’s best-case scenario, it could overtake its Western rival by 2031, according to research by Orlik and Eric Zhu, a Bloomberg economist based in Hong Kong. In a worst case scenario, a combination of stalled reforms, international isolation and financial crisis could relegate China to permanent second place. Magnus is skeptical of China’s chances of passing the U.S., arguing that its most productive periods were during liberal economic reform, which is hardly the state of affairs under President Xi Jinping. In a second segment, London-based economy reporter Lizzy Burden shares how some U.K. corporations are speaking more openly about menopause, something 1 in 4 women around the world may be facing by 2030. A rising number are leaving the workforce as a result, which is prompting business leaders to finally address the sometimes taboo subject. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The early days of the pandemic saw a scramble to unleash massive monetary and fiscal bailouts to counter the fallout of a global health crisis and the shutdowns intended to mitigate its damage. Almost a year and a half later, times have changed in many countries, and so has the economic landscape. But are policymakers moving fast enough to unwind their emergency measures?On this week's podcast Stephanie Flanders is joined by two of the biggest names in the financial world—billionaire investor Ray Dalio and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who is perhaps the loudest voice of warning when it comes to inflation. Hear their opinions on just how hot the U.S. economy is running, where they think bubbles are building and why they contend that government officials need to take the threat of inflation seriously, and do so right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.