Trumponomics

Democratic powers in Europe, as well as Japan and Australia could be left out on a limb should Donald Trump win the US presidential election in November, cable news host and author Fareed Zakaria tells Adrian Wooldridge in this episode of Voternomics. He says the former president and convicted felon may opt for a policy of protectionism instead of America’s long-standing practice of internationalism—all as US political influence continues to wane. Zakaria, host of the CNN program GPS, contends the world is experiencing a backlash to globalization similar to one in the 1920s—as set out in his new book, Age of Revolutions, which makes Wooldridge’s summer reading list. This dynamic is made all the more stark by Trump’s transformation of the Republican Party into an anti-immigrant, trade-skeptic entity, he says. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A network of dictators from China to Venezuela could be the beneficiaries of a welcoming White House should Donald Trump win the US election come November. That’s according to journalist and historian Anne Applebaum, who warns that the self-proclaimed dealmaker and convicted felon’s foreign policy may be more personal and even less predictable in a second term. Applebaum joins Voternomics host Stephanie Flanders to discuss her latest book Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run The World. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Joe Biden announced Sunday he’s no longer seeking the Democratic Party’s nomination, saying his exit from the race was in the best interests of his party and the country. He then threw his support to his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris. But is it as simple as that? Will Harris receive her party's nomination? Is she the best person the Democrat's have to take on Donald Trump? And does the market's mild response to the news suggest many think a Donald Trump victory is still the most likely outcome?Hosts Stephanie Flanders and Adrian Wooldridge explore those questions. Plus, we bring you an episode from our sister show the Big Take -- Gregory Korte and Laura Davison, who cover money and politics for Bloomberg, discuss Kamala Harris’s fundraising edge and how Democratic donors are reacting to the news. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What could a second Donald Trump presidency look like, should he defeat US President Joe Biden in November, and how could the Republican’s policies shape markets and the world economy?We discuss with Elbridge Colby, a member of the first Trump administration and potential National Security Advisor if there’s a second one. Also on this episode, a conversation with Bloomberg political correspondent Nancy Cook, who joins from the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. And finally, Bloomberg Editor in Chief John Micklethwait discusses his column on what lessons the Republicans could glean from the recent defeat of the Conservatives in the UK. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

From the Paris Bureau, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Jean-Claude Trichet, former European Central Bank president and Bank of France governor, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Lionel Laurent, and Eleonora Mavroeidi, an economist for Bloomberg Economics, to debrief on the election results. "The worst has been avoided," says Trichet, but now France must embark on a "very complex maturing process."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a special edition of Voternomics, the former CEO of Legal & General Nigel Wilson urges the new UK government to be bold and act fast. He speaks with host Stephanie Flanders and Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Abrdn Chairman Douglas Flint joins this week to explain why he thinks the new government needs to build up transportation and education. Senior reporter Phil Aldrick also joins to discuss the sort of economy Labour will inherit if it wins this week's election. Hosted by Stephanie Flanders, Adrian Wooldridge, and Allegra Stratton. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this special episode of Voternomics, Tim O’Brien, senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion and author of TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald, and Bloomberg Big Take podcast host, David Gura join host Stephanie Flanders to discuss the US presidential debate on Thursday night, including President Joe Biden’s poor performance, Donald Trump’s repeated falsehoods, the lack of fact-checking and how it all will shape the future of the race.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of Voternomics, former UK diplomat Tom Fletcher discusses how the Labour Party leader’s first 30 days could define his premiership. Plus, reporter Ellen Milligan discusses her story on Labour’s position on Brexit. Hosted by Allegra Stratton and reporters Alex Wickham and Ailbhe Rae. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“We, the left, have messed up,” said Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister who came to fame negotiating on behalf of the Greek government during the country’s 2015 debt crisis. “We’ve tried, we’ve been tested and we failed our test.”Varoufakis joins this week’s Voternomics podcast, in which hosts Allegra Stratton, Stephanie Flanders and Adrian Wooldridge take a closer look at the rise of far-right populism in Europe and the retreat of left-wing progressivism. Francesco Giubilei, author of The History of European Conservative Thought and president of the conservative foundation Fondazione Tatarella, also joins this week’s episode to discuss the success of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s been a busy few days in the world of economics and politics. The big developments include UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s damaging decision to skip a high-profile D-Day event, voters across Europe handing gains to right-wing parties and French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise announcement of snap elections.All of this was discussed at a live taping of Voternomics before an audience at Bloomberg’s London offices. Hosts Allegra Stratton, Adrian Wooldridge and Stephanie Flanders were joined by Editor in Chief John Micklethwait, Washington Bureau Chief Peggy Collins and Bloomberg Television anchor Francine Lacqua. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe cannot rely on America for its long-term security, says Robin Niblett, distinguished fellow and former director of Chatham House. On this episode of Voternomics, Niblettt—who conceives of a multi-decade “structural conflict” between China and the US—says Europe has experienced a “wake up call.” Plus, Stephanie, Allegra and Adrian discuss Brexit architect Nigel Farage's decision to run in the UK election and reporter Swati Gupta joins to break down the India election surprise. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this special Monday episode, White House national security adviser for economics Daleep Singh explains how America is seeking to maintain global influence. Bloomberg senior editor Ruchi Bhatia discusses the likely victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party in India’s election and what it means for the world’s fastest-growing major economy. And Stephanie and Allegra discuss the election results in South Africa and Mexico. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For the past three decades, South African politics have been defined by the African National Congress. But with initial forecasts from the May 29 vote showing a marked decline in support for the ruling party, change looks likely. So what do the various potential outcomes mean for South Africa’s growth and debt outlook? For investor interest in the country? Bloomberg Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge and Senior Executive Editor Jacqueline Simmons review the landscape with Bloomberg economist Yvonne Mhango.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bad actors using machine-learning, generative artificial intelligence and the power of digital networks are seeding ever-more distrust in democracy, warns Audrey Tang, former digital affairs minister for Taiwan. Tang joins this week’s episode of Voternomics to discuss the risk of foreign interference in the many elections happening around the world, as well as lessons learned while combating efforts to distort the political debate in Taiwan. Plus, Bloomberg political correspondent Nancy Cook discusses the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polling which reveals the unease voters feel around the US election—from misinformation to political violence and foreign interference.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this special edition of Voternomics, we discuss the possible reasoning behind the Conservative’s decision to gamble on an earlier-than-expected vote. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Munich Security Conference Chair Wolfgang Ischinger joinsVoternomics to explain the new European project he says is needed. Plus, Bloomberg reporter Michael Nienaber discusses why German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s popularity remains at historic lows while the far-right AfD party may see gains in the European parliament next month. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ben Page, chief executive of market research company Ipsos, joins Voternomics this week to outline what he’s discovered about voters and what they think about their politicians, governments and economies. He tells Stephanie Flanders and Allegra Stratton that trust in politics is the “lowest we’ve ever measured.” Also on this episode, Flanders, Stratton and Adrian Wooldridge ask Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers whether—given the question of when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates between now and the election—the central bank can remain above the political fray.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Karen Ward, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief market strategist for EMEA, joins this week to explain why politicians are being punished for the sins of central banks. Ward, a former Bank of England economist and adviser to both UK Chancellors Philip Hammond and Jeremy Hunt, tells Stephanie Flanders, Allegra Stratton and Adrian Wooldridge about the damage done as a result of missteps when it comes to inflation. Plus, Bloomberg News editor Craig Trudell unpacks how Elon Musk is driving on both sides of the US-China relationship. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to the first episode of Voternomics. On this podcast, Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics coverage, Allegra Stratton, author of Bloomberg’s The Readout newsletter and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge discuss how voters have the opportunity to affect markets, countries and economies like never before. Historian Niall Ferguson and Bloomberg Washington reporter Nancy Cook join our hosts to give their take on this unique moment in time. Ferguson explains why he believes the 2024 US presidential election isn’t about foreign policy, why Donald Trump is using his 2016 campaign strategy and why the second Cold War is escalating faster than the first. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephanie is back with a new podcast series.This is the year of elections. Around 40 percent of the world has the chance to vote in 2024. And those votes will shape the geo-economic landscape for years to come.The implications for business and democracy are huge and worth exploring, which is why Stephanie is joining Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge and Bloomberg contributor and former government advisor Allegra Stratton for a new series called “Voternomics.”It’s a weekly look at the way geopolitics - and elections - are upending the longstanding assumptions of policymakers and business people around the world. In short, it’s a series about how elections mean business.Don’t miss the first episode coming this Friday. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk. In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seventeen months after Russia invaded Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians remain scattered around the world, with no end to the war in sight. Many of those who fled are women and children. Unless they return when the fighting is over, some of the damage inflicted on their country's economy may become permanent. On this season’s final episode of Stephanomics, Kyiv bureau chief Daryna Krasnolutska explains why women are so critical to Ukraine’s recovery. Most men age 18-60 aren’t allowed to leave the country, which explains why 68% of Ukrainian refugees are women. Of them, some 2.8 million are working-age. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg Economist Alexander Isakov, who estimates that Ukraine’s economy would lose $20 billion a year, or about 10% of its pre-war GDP, should none of them return. The government, which says it needs 4.5 million workers to achieve its reconstruction goals, is working on incentives, including narrowing the gender pay gap, to lure them back. Flanders also chats with Marta Foresti, a senior fellow from the Overseas Development Institute in London, who discusses the importance of refugees (especially women) to their home economies, as well as her experience of working with returnees to Sierra Leone after its decade-long civil war.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The green minerals boom has triggered a new scramble for natural resources across the developing world. From Southeast Asia to Africa, countries rich with raw materials necessary for things like electric vehicle batteries are trying to capitalize on it without falling victim to the “resource curse.” There’s a long and inglorious history of commodity-rich economies failing to get rich from their natural wealth. The money pours in from industrialized nations when global demand is high, but when boom turns to bust, they often end up worse than neighboring economies not similarly “blessed.” Those nations are hoping this time could be different. On this episode of Stephanomics, reporter Claire Jiao hears how Indonesia, home to a large chunk of the world’s nickel, has led the way by banning the export of processed forms of the metal so vital to the production of EVs. The idea is that instead of exporting its enormous reserves of raw nickel and bauxite, it can turn them into EV batteries, or even EVs themselves, for shipping abroad, thereby kickstarting local manufacturing. So far, it seems to be working. Host Stephanie Flanders then sits down with Jim Cust, senior economist for Africa at the World Bank, and senior reporter Jack Farchy to discuss whether Indonesia has set an example African nations could follow as they look to partake in this new gold rush, and whether pulling it off to the scale will be the exception or the rule.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People in China are blocked from seeing much of what’s happening in the outside world. For outsiders, it can be just as difficult to see in. This week, Stephanie interviews Keyu Jin, professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook. Jin discusses what she considers misunderstandings of China’s ambitions and goals in the world, and the risks that come with such views. She says that one of the biggest misconceptions is that China is trying to displace the US. What it’s really aiming for, Jin explains, is to improve living standards for its middle-income earners. She also discusses the current state of China’s economy, its relations with the US and Europe and the skills gap contributing to high youth unemployment. Within China, there’s widespread gratitude and deference toward the government, something outsiders often find surprising, Jin says. But she warns this could change if slower economic growth translates into fewer high-quality jobs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Covid-19 was supposed to mean the end of the city as we know it. Buzzing urban centers would give way to boarded-up ghost towns as white-collar employees worked from home in perpetuity. Now, two months after the pandemic’s end, it’s clear that dystopian vision won’t come to pass. But among the best-known cities, winners and losers are emerging. Some have people and riches flowing in while others struggle to recover. On this week’s episode of Stephanomics, we start off in Dubai, a popular destination for wealthy Russians who fled when Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine. Bloomberg Television anchor Manus Cranny tells host Stephanie Flanders about the city’s massive increases in rent, and in particular his own experience. It’s a similar story in Singapore, says Bloomberg Senior Reporter Michelle Jamrisko. As Xi Jinping pushes his “common prosperity” mandate at home, the richest Chinese are looking to protect their assets by pouring money into the city-state. The influx of wealth has in turn turbocharged rents and restaurant prices, all at the expense of a shrinking middle class. When it comes to the losers in this post-pandemic shakeout, look no further than San Francisco. Once the glittering high-tech hotbed of wild wealth and exorbitant real estate, the outflow of people and money exacerbated by the recent tech downturn may have done irrevocable damage, says California Bureau Chief Karen Breslau. Flanders speaks with her and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Justin Fox about how San Francisco’s fate compares with other US cities, many of which are managing to climb back.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US economy has proven resilient after more than a year’s worth of interest-rate hikes, with a steady drumbeat of recession predictions having been proven wrong. New data released this week continued to point away from a downturn. Still, some forecasters warn a recession might still be coming, and that it could coincide with the 2024 presidential election. On this week’s episode, we look at how the current leading candidates for the White House are framing the economy. Bloomberg Senior Reporter Nancy Cook describes the challenge facing President Joe Biden: the economy has thrived on his watch, especially in terms of record low unemployment, but the overhang of persistent inflation weighs heavy on voters’ minds. Meantime, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump haven’t put forward any economic plans and have largely focused on divisive social issues and the threats posed by China. Then Stephanie sits down with Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, and Bloomberg economist Anna Wong. They discuss how the US economy will evolve leading up to the 2024 vote, and how important it might be in deciding the election. Wong says that, while Biden’s signature economic legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law—are investments that will play out in the long term, short-term costs of higher inflation and recession risks may offset the benefits, and even outweigh them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Climate change is fast transforming the planet. Global warming is fueling drought, massive wildfires, rising sea levels and stronger hurricanes. Now scientists and economists are worried about another knock-on effect: faster inflation. On this episode of Stephanomics, we hear from reporter Laura Curtis, who explains how drought has lowered the water level of a lake feeding the Panama Canal, which could in turn boost shipping costs. A similar phenomenon is already playing out in Europe, where low water levels in the Rhine River are making it more expensive to transport key commodities across the continent. Then host Stephanie Flanders chats with Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen and Bloomberg economist Bhargavi Sakthivel about the economic impacts of El Nino, a period of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The system, which scientists say is becoming more frequent and intense thanks to global warming, is already placing upward pressure on prices of agricultural goods like coffee and sugar. That could lead to higher inflation and lower growth in several countries in the tropics and southern hemisphere.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Globalization was once the watchword of Washington. Bill Clinton made it a centerpiece of his economic policy, from the North American Free Trade Agreement to ushering China into the World Trade Organization. But two decades later, America has become increasingly protectionist, pushing strategic industrial policies and trade barriers. Just the other day, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan turned heads when he said "the postulate that deep trade liberalization would help America export goods, not jobs and capacity, was a promise made and not kept." Indeed, the Biden Administration has been touting a new kind of trade policy, one known as "friend-shoring." It encourages friendly nations and their companies to shift manufacturing away from geopolitical rivals like China and toward allies. On this episode, Stephanie speaks with Mike Froman, who served as the US Trade Representative under President Barack Obama, about how trade policy has evolved since his administration and where it's heading. We also sit down with Senior Editor Brendan Murray, who takes us to Morocco, a country where globalization still holds sway. There, companies from China and Russia are manufacturing auto parts and sending them around the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Joe Biden, like so many other presidents before him, put America’s re-industrialization at the center of his campaign for the White House. And like his predecessors, he’s found that the “Made in America” label remains hard to find. Indeed, more countries are trying to cut their reliance on imports from China, the global giant of manufacturing, citing everything from geopolitical tensions to human rights abuses and supply-chain snarls. But the reality is they still can’t seem to break away from the “world’s factory floor.” And when they try, it doesn’t work out well. On this episode we take you around the world to see what’s standing in their way. Bloomberg reporter Jeannette Neumann tours clothing factories in Los Angeles, the heart of America’s apparel industry, and struggles to find tags that don’t say “Made in China.” In India, Bloomberg editor Ruchi Bhatia and reporter Vrishti Beniwal explore toy stores in New Delhi, and find the selection lacking thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s effort to cut out goods from his neighbor to the north. Finally, we have more from Milken Institute Chief Economist William Lee and his chat with host Stephanie Flanders. They discuss how realistic it really is for companies to even try to diversify their supply chains beyond China.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The idea that artificial intelligence would someday replace humans in certain jobs is nothing new. Now, as some companies make plans for this new reality, it's still an open question as to whether AI should be feared--or embraced as a technology that will make the world a better place. On this episode, Daron Acemoglu, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tells Stephanie that while it may be right to be concerned, people shouldn't be scared. They discuss a new book co-authored by Acemoglu, Power and Progress, and whether AI will yield benefits similar to those conferred by other technological and scientific advancements throughout history. The key to making AI work in the long run, Acemoglu says, is that workers maintain a role and a voice through protections like unions and government regulation. Without those guardrails, he warned, AI may indeed sideline more humans from the workforce. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US debt ceiling is all anyone in Washington (and increasingly elsewhere) can talk about these days. For months, politicians have been in a stalemate triggered by Republican demands for spending cuts as the price for paying America's debts. With next week seen as the point at which the Treasury may have to start issuing IOUs, any deal to avert a catastrophic default is going to come down to the wire. Recent sticking points are tied to potential spending caps, the GOP's insistence on slashing domestic spending for several years and the Biden administration's desire for more limited cuts. On this episode of Stephanomics, Senior Editor Chris Anstey and reporter Josh Wingrove give us the state of play, from explaining what exactly the debt ceiling is to laying out some scenarios of how things progress from here. Stephanie then sits down with economist Stephen King to talk about government debt levels more broadly, and if we should be worried given how high interest rates have climbed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some of the world's largest economies are struggling with a response to the rising influence of China and Russia. Specifically, how the ambitions of those two authoritarian nations tend not to conform with Western ideals. And nowhere is this more relevant than in Japan, for whom China, Russia and indeed North Korea are neighbors. Those tense relations and their economic implications are top of mind at this week's Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan, where we take you for this episode. From a city that suffered the unspeakable destruction of nuclear weapons, Bloomberg's Yoshiaki Nohara explains how the nation is now trying to balance its longtime aversion to war with the growing threats in its backyard. Stephanie then sits down with Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, and Rory Medcalf, who leads the National Security College at the Australian National University. They discuss not only Japan's strategic role in the Indo-Pacific region, but also China's significance in the global economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation rates may be slowing broadly across Europe, but you wouldn’t know it after a trip to the grocery store or dining out. And there’s only so much governments can do to help their people cope. In this week’s Stephanomics podcast, Bloomberg reporter Alessandra Migliaccio takes you across the continent to see how much more it costs to make some of the world’s most famous dishes, from France’s coq au vin to pizza margherita in Italy. Politicians have tried to limit the pain of high prices, but their efforts have barely made a dent. Bloomberg has been tracking custom food indexes around the world for close to a year, including the traditional English breakfast. Reporter Irina Anghel tells us about the latest reading, which showed the average basket of ingredients—including eggs, bread and milk—spiked almost 23% in the past year. Host Stephanie Flanders then chats with Joe Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, about the outlook for global food prices.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The banking crisis that began in March continues to rapidly evolve. What started with the collapse of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank went on to claim Signature Bank and push a vulnerable Credit Suisse into the arms of UBS. This week, another midsize California lender that couldn’t find its footing also dropped, as First Republic was acquired by JPMorgan. In the first episode of this season, we catch you up on the turmoil in the financial sector and how it’s straining US small businesses that rely on these banks for capital. Bloomberg reporter Mike Sasso takes us to Florida, where a couple that’s trying to create a space for people to eat and drink while playing the fast-growing sport of pickleball is struggling to get an affordable loan. The topic dominated discussions at this week’s Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. Host Stephanie Flanders sat down with Milken Institute Chief Economist William Lee, who warns that cutting off small businesses from borrowing would hit the labor market almost directly. However, he says that’s exactly what the Federal Reserve wants, as illustrated by a cycle of rate hikes that, after Wednesday's latest increase, may finally be at an end. And finally, Flanders speaks with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who said the banking crisis highlights the complacency of regulators when it comes to financial risk. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all might one day be replaced by robots or ChatGPT. But for now, businesses still need humans to make computer chips or staff daycare centers. Problem is, too few workers in the US are actually working and too few people are having babies. That’s a major concern for American industry, policymakers, and most immediately, tech giant Intel Corp. The company is trying to find 7,000 people in central Ohio to build its new semiconductor facilities and 3,000 more to staff them.On this, the season’s final episode of Stephanomics, we dig into the super-tight US labor market, which is expected to get even tighter as more of the nation’s skilled workers retire. First, senior reporter Shawn Donnan visits Licking County, Ohio, future home to a $20 billion chip plant that will pay workers an average annual salary of $135,000. The Biden administration hopes Intel’s project sparks a wave of manufacturing projects in strategic industries like semiconductors and electric vehicles. Then reporter Ben Steverman offers some insight into the roughly 2.6 million US workers who’ve gone missing since the pandemic began. A recent study by Harvard University economist Raj Chetty suggests many of them waited tables, cut hair and staffed gyms in relatively affluent neighborhoods. When these wealthy residents slashed their spending and stayed home as Covid-19 bore down, it created a wave of business closures and job losses. Many of those workers, Steverman explains, never returned. Meanwhile the nation’s working-age population is growing at its slowest pace since 1960, and total population actually dropped in at least 24 states, including Ohio. Host Stephanie Flanders follows up on America’s demographic challenges with University of Maryland economist Melissa Kearney, also director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group. The US birth rate, at just under 1.7 children per woman, is well below the so-called replacement rate of 2.1, and the share of working-age adults who are actually working is falling, says Kearney. Long term, fewer workers means fewer ideas and less specialization, she warns, all of which could mean lower income and living standards in the US and globally. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“My fear is that we are sleepwalking into this world. But hey, here is Davos! Wake up! Do the right thing!” That's the rallying cry of Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, imploring the global elite at this week's World Economic Forum to be vigilant as an almost unrivaled list of perils weighs on the world's leaders. Recession looks set to sweep across the globe, nations are leaning more heavily on coal amid tight energy supplies and the cost of servicing debt is soaring. Getting things wrong, Georgieva says, means dragging the “world into a place where we’ll be all poorer and we would be less secure.” In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders chats with a star-studded list of international economists, finance ministers and corporate chieftains from Davos, Switzerland. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, explains why finance ministers and central bankers are caught in an almost impossible dilemma: High inflation requires central bankers to raise interest rates to cool the economy, even as governments spend more to help consumers hurting from soaring energy and food costs. Longer term, real interest rates may stay high unless countries can get more targeted with their relief programs, instead of spreading assistance universally, argues Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The US overspent during the pandemic, partly because “every constituency got a share of the spending simply because they couldn't make choices,” Rajan says. Next, Flanders has a decidedly more upbeat chat with Nandan Nilekani, chairman of Indian tech giant Infosys Ltd. With news that China's population has declined for the first time in decades, India is set to become the world's most populous country. What's more, Nilekani sees the country benefiting from manufacturers seeking an alternative to China, spooked by the latter nation's repeated factory shutdowns amid its Covid-zero policy. Per capita incomes may grow from $3,000 now to $15,000 in the next 25 years, and “that's much more than a middle-income country,” Nilekani says. Finally, Nela Richardson, chief economist at US-based payroll and business outsourcing firm Automatic Data Processing Inc., says real wages have declined across the world recently, even if nominal wage gains have created a myth that workers are “in the driver's seat.” Businesses would benefit from paying workers a living wage, which despite the apparent expense actually results in better productivity and lowers costs, Richardson tells Flanders. “Will inflation moderate enough and wages stay solid enough that workers actually benefit from lower inflation? We don't know that yet,” Richardson says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Frustrated by prices at the grocery store? People in countries with advanced economies who have been grousing about single-digit inflation have nothing on Argentina and Turkey. There, inflation is above 90% and 60%, respectively. In the words of one tourist in Buenos Aires, carrying enough cash to pay for a flight leaves one feeling like a bank robber—with a stack of pesos as thick as a brick. With new consumer price data on Thursday, the US is getting a better idea where inflation is headed there. But as it reopens, China remains a wild card for the whole world. In this week’s episode of Stephanomics, we look at what’s driving prices up in two of the world’s inflation hot spots, and when prices may finally cool there and elsewhere. First, reporter Patrick Gillespie details the alternately quirky and harrowing state of Argentina’s currency. For tourists, using it is a relatively minor inconvenience. Because of strict government currency controls, travelers can get a far better exchange rate through non-bank sources like Western Union (and on the black market) than by going through Argentine banks. So, there are endless lines of tourists at Western Union locations, and it’s made the country something of a laughingstock: Brazilian soccer fans recently tore up near-worthless pesos to mock their Argentine rivals. Of course, Argentines are faring much worse. The poverty rate has soared from 25% to 40% in recent years. In the words of one nurse, “a pair of shoes is half my salary.” Meantime in Ankara, an inflation rate of 65% is actually an improvement from the 85% price increases the Turkish citizenry faced a short while ago. Reporter Beril Akman shares the dubious economic strategy pursued by the nation’s central bank and President Recep Erdogan. Whereas other nations are feverishly slashing interest rates to cool their economies and bring down inflation, Turkey is doing the opposite: keeping rates low and raising the minimum wage. The fallout? An Ankara flower shop merchant shares with Akman how electricity costs are so high he’s stopped using his refrigerator. Finally, host Stephanie Flanders zooms in on Turkey with Bloomberg economist Selva Bahar Baziki, and zooms out to look at the global picture with Chief Economist Tom Orlik. Baziki explains that while inflation is taking a toll on the Turkish people, “mystery money” flowing in from Russia is helping to soften the blow, at least for now. Orlik says global inflation peaked at around 10% in the third quarter of last year, and it should fall to 5% by the end of this year. The big risk is that growth in China will take off now that it's shedding its “Covid zero” restrictions. If so, that could cause inflation to go in the wrong direction again, Orlik said.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If it feels like the US relationship with China is a tinderbox waiting to explode, chalk some of it up to political expedience. Leaders on either side of the Pacific have played the blame game for years, faulting each other for their troubles while failing to enact necessary reforms at home, says economist and China scholar Stephen Roach. Meantime, these “false narratives” have built up so much animosity that a new Cold War has emerged, he says. The fight, as Senior Editor Chris Anstey explains, potentially spans everything from rules governing the internet to the most mundane facet of consumerism. On this first Stephanomics episode of the new year, we feature a double shot of brewing economic and political conflict between the US and its Western allies on one side and China on the other. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Roach about his new book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives. Things didn’t have to be this bad, says Roach, a former chief economist for Morgan Stanley and now senior fellow at Yale Law School. Years ago, the US and China regularly held big economic and strategic forums. Nowadays, Chinese officials have Zoom calls, or Joe Biden and Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of a G20 summit, accomplishing “nothing,” Roach says. What happened? Roach says the deterioration of US-China relations stems from a zeal for blaming the other side for one’s own shortcomings. US leaders routinely blame China for the large trade imbalance favoring the Chinese, Roach says. To be sure, China is the biggest source of the imbalance, but countries run trade deficits because they fail to save. “And when you don’t save and you want to grow, you import surplus savings from abroad, and you run massive current account or balance of payments deficits,” Roach says. In China, leaders know they need to rejigger their economy to reduce dependence on exports and investment while bolstering domestic consumer consumption. But it’s easier just to blame the US for constraining its growth, Roach says. In a lighter segment, Anstey explains a growing rift between the US and China. He does so by way of the lowly desiccant, those small packets of silica gel that keep moisture out of everything from new sneakers to electronics. Last year, China decided the world needed a new production standard for desiccant packets, part of a much larger effort to influence standards on everything from desiccants to internet protocols. The latter would give Beijing a larger say in how things are made globally. Ultimately, US representatives helped kill the new desiccant standard, much to the delight of sneaker, textile and food companies who figure one desiccant is as good as the next. Still, the fight over production standards is heating up, and where moisture-reducing packets are low-risk, cybersecurity experts worry more about China’s efforts to influence internet standards.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hosted by Bloomberg Opinion senior executive editor Tim O'Brien, Crash Course will bring listeners directly into the arenas where epic business and social upheavals occur. Every week, Crash Course will explore the lessons to be learned when creativity and ambition collide with competition and power -- on Wall Street and Main Street, and in Hollywood and Washington.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A push for peace in Ukraine, a recovering China and good news for US consumers may be in the cards.Will China keep moving beyond its "Covid-zero" policy in the face of a massive infection wave? When and how will Russia's war on Ukraine end? Will Donald Trump really go ahead with his US presidential campaign next year? Groundhog Day won't arrive in the US until February, but until then the Stephanomics podcast has assembled a crack team of prognosticators rivaling Punxsutawney Phil himself to give a glimpse into 2023.In this annual look-ahead edition of the podcast, host Stephanie Flanders delves into the future with Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, and three Bloomberg experts, Chief Economist Tom Orlik, Washington Bureau Chief Peggy Collins and London-based TV anchor Francine Lacqua. First, with inflation and interest rates dominating economic headlines, Orlik gives a somewhat reassuring outlook for the US. Price hikes will fall rapidly from their perch above 7% in 2023, but they'll remain high enough that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening the money supply for now, Orlik says.In US politics, Trump's bid for a second term has gotten off to a slow start. Facing multiple criminal investigations and diminishing party support, some are wondering if his heart is really in it. However, since he's announced that he's running, we'd better assume the Republican might be on the ballot in 2024, even if potential rivals like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis don't clear a path for him, Collins said. The man who defeated Trump in 2020, President Joe Biden, has his own challenges next year now that the GOP controls the House of Representatives. Collins sees Biden circumventing a deadlocked Congress by making prolific use of executive orders, as many of his predecessors have done in the past.Across the Atlantic, Grant predicts the French, Italians and Germans, joined by the US, will eventually urge Ukraine to cede territory to reach a peace agreement, despite the tens of thousands of its citizens killed by Russia in its war. While some Eastern European nations are taking a hardline stance against the Kremlin, including pushing for regime change, Biden and his allies foresee having to work with Russia over the long term, Grant says, and may take a more diplomatic approach. Meantime, the continent has been spared a full-on energy crisis, in part because of a mild European winter and a large supply of natural gas in storage, Lacqua says. That could change, though, with the European Union's new cap on gas prices. Energy importers may choose to send their natural gas elsewhere and cause prices in Europe to soar, Lacqua warns.China currently faces a national crisis as coronavirus cases flood hospitals and threaten to kill more than a million people. It's a public health catastrophe that was triggered by Xi Jinping's sudden reversal of his "Covid-zero" policy. But in 2023, that turnabout may have Beijing's desired effects: After the infection wave recedes, Orlik predicts China's economy may finally turn the corner. He sees the country growing by 5.1% next year, with the risk being that it grows too quickly and puts a strain on the world's commodity supplies. For now, the US and Europe have been somewhat at odds over China, with the US more concerned about Beijing's accumulation of power and the threat to US security. Europe may be forced to side with its US allies, Grant says. "The more we get into a sort of new Cold War, the more inevitably the Europeans, however reluctantly, are forced to take sides and will take sides on the American side," he says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thirty years after the Cold War ended, a new one of sorts is emerging between China and the West, a leading economic scholar asserts. As a muscular China seeks to refashion trade and geopolitical organizations in its own image, the US and many of its allies face a key challenge: keeping Beijing on board with trade pacts and efforts to slow global warming without ceding ground on democratic freedoms. In this special episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders talks economics and geopolitics with Paul Tucker, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England and author of the new book, Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order. Years ago, world leaders could set their monetary, national security and human rights policies independently, but nowadays all of those things are interconnected and everything is more complicated. This new reality was evident when the Group of Seven leading economies, responding to the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, froze Russian currency reserves held in Western banks, Tucker says. Tucker predicts that developing nations will eventually topple the existing world order, shaping one in which the US, Europe and Japan no longer call all the shots. In this new iteration, international trade and diplomatic entities will have to be completely remade. But Tucker says that’s still a few decades away, because while China is already a world power, India and a few other developing nations remain a ways off. For now, the US will enjoy a “lingering status quo” in global finance as issuer of the world’s premier reserve currency, but global trade, cross-border investment and everything else will see more jostling for power, something between a “superpower struggle” and a “new Cold War.” Tucker sees China trying to influence global trade and politics much more in coming years, a real concern for the West since Beijing tends to prioritize Communist Party control over civil liberties. World leaders will need to walk a fine line when dealing with Beijing, he says, working with China on pressing global issues while distancing themselves on others. “I think the big thing is China is too powerful” for the US and its allies to tell it how to reorder its society, Tucker tells Flanders. Still, the West should “should find common cause” where it can.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's evidence the Federal Reserve may have finally gained the upper hand in its war against inflation, a potential relief not only for US investors but also real estate agents 8,000 miles away in Hong Kong. The central bank's year-long rate-hike campaign has stymied America's housing market as well as that of the Asian financial hub, and people on both continents will be glad to see the back of it. This week, we explore how global challenges like inflation, rising interest rates and worker shortages are moving markets in three continents. First, Chief US Economist Anna Wong tells host Stephanie Flanders that, while inflation appears to be slowing in the US, it's too early to tell if the Fed has won the war. Too many risks remain in the global economy, including Russia cutting its oil production or China's reopening sending commodities prices soaring. What appears more clear, Wong says, is that someone may have gotten a heads-up on this week's surprising US inflation report. A minute before the Consumer Price Index numbers went public, someone traded heavily on Treasury futures. "So, by being a bit early, before everybody gets the same data, somebody is making a lot of money with that move,'' she says. Next, we travel to Hong Kong, home to one of the world's priciest property markets. Reporter Enda Curran and producer Yang Yang visit a 33rd-floor apartment that just sold for $3.2 million -- a relative bargain for a unit with a view of the famous Happy Valley Racecourse. In a better market, it might have fetched almost 10% more, the unit's real estate agent said. While China's restrictive "Covid zero" policy may be partly to blame, so too is US monetary policy. Since Hong Kong's currency is linked to the US dollar, Fed rate hikes ricochet across the city's system. And just as US housing prices are cooling off, economists say prices here could fall 30% from their peak. Finally, reporter Alessandra Migliaccio shares how Italy's legendary fashion companies are struggling to persuade young people to make 1,000-euro boots. The nation's youth unemployment rate is almost 24%, but roughly one in every two job postings in the luxury industry goes unfilled, according to trade group Altagamma. New Fendi Chief Executive Officer Serge Brunschwig is on something of a crusade to reverse the trend and get Italian youth to take up the craft. Still, it's no easy sell. In the words of one 18-year-old who's learning shoemaking, ``People say, `Oh, you make shoes? That’s a bit useless.'"See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the rest of the world raises interest rates to battle inflation, Japan curiously is clinging to low rates to raise wages and finally move past its long battle with deflation. But as Tokyo tries to hold the line, the fastest inflation in decades is spooking a country unaccustomed to it. And the “decoupling” of the US and China, along with Russia’s war on Ukraine, are also raising tough questions for a historically pacifist nation whose biggest export market is governed by Beijing, but whose national security has long depended on Washington. This week, we devote our entire Stephanomics podcast to Japan, delving into its economy, its ties to China and the US and its efforts to stay on friendly terms with both. First, reporter Yoshiaki Nohara brings us the noisy scene inside the Toyosu Market, the world’s largest wholesale fish market. There, businesses face a dilemma: costs of materials are rising at a 9.1% clip, but consumer inflation is running at a more modest 3.6%. So, wholesale fish merchants, restaurants and other businesses are eating some of the inflation for fear of alienating a Japanese public that’s used to prices falling, not rising.“We really wonder whether customers will keep coming back if we raise prices,” one businessman tells Nohara. That reluctance to boost prices, though, is creating a bit of a vicious cycle for Japan. Worker wages are stuck and won’t rise until businesses can pass along more of their rising prices to consumers. However, consumers won’t accept higher prices until they see higher wages. For now, the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance are trying to force wages up by keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels—even if the yen craters, too.Next, host Stephanie Flanders, who’s in Tokyo this week, chats with reporter Isabel Reynolds about the way Japan is being drawn into global conflicts and its delicate efforts to keep everyone happy. This week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ordered an increase in defense spending that could strangely put his country almost on par with Russia. Meantime, Japan finds itself caught between its loyalty to the US and its crucial trading ties with China, Reynolds says. The US has been signaling it’s getting more aggressive toward China on trade issues, and while Japan has been reluctant to take sides, it may be forced to follow America’s lead if things escalate, she says. Finally, Flanders chats with Takehiko Nakao, a former senior official with the Ministry of Finance, about whether Japan is finally ready to shed its years-long deflation, as well as the nation’s need to ensure its own national security in light of the threat from China while also maintaining economic ties with Beijing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe might just avoid what had been a widely predicted, Kremlin-induced energy crisis this winter, thanks to a surprisingly large stock of natural gas. But are the continent’s efforts to conserve giving a bah humbug to the holidays? Some of Europe’s best-loved Christmas markets are shutting their holiday lights earlier to save electricity or even banning them outright. Even worse, Frankfurt’s famous market is—perish the thought—forgoing heated toilets. In this episode we delve into the energy challenges facing Europe as it works to replace natural gas cut off by Russia. First, reporter Bastian Benrath visits with retailers in Frankfurt’s famed Christmas market, where cutbacks to the city’s large holiday light displays threaten to sap some of its magic and give shoppers less reason to turn out. Other cities like Zurich, Berlin and London also have trimmed holiday display hours or reduced their size, and Paris is turning off the lights at the Eiffel Tower an hour early. What really annoys retailers about this Scrooge-like behavior is that keeping the lights on may expend less energy than powering and heating the markets themselves. As Benrath reports, “in many places, cutting the Christmas lights might actually be more about saving face than actually about saving energy.” In a follow-up discussion, host Stephanie Flanders talks European energy with Maeva Cousin, Bloomberg’s senior euro-area economist, and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas. The continent appears ready to confront the winter without mass shortages of gas, thanks in part to forecasts that were overly pessimistic, reduced demand from China and relatively mild European weather, Cousin says. Still, Blas warns that the continent isn’t out of the woods yet. In the short term, a harsher winter than forecast could still lead to blackouts. In the long term, Europe’s high energy costs could persuade companies to relocate to places with cheaper costs, like Texas. Finally, reporter Colum Murphy reflects on the protests over China’s “Covid zero” policy. The plight of residents stuck in lockdowns there has come into stark focus. While images of jubilant crowds at World Cup soccer games flicker on TV screens, “at home in China the people are living in strict conditions,” Murphy says. And for President Xi Jinping, the protests are a huge embarrassment, coming “just after receiving the backing of the whole party.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in the days when bands like Led Zeppelin or The Who toured America, teens lined up overnight at ticket booths, hoping for great seats when the window opened. As time went on, the queue moved to the telephone and ultimately online. All the while, one company increased its grip on the live-event market. That company is Ticketmaster. But that could change thanks to Taylor Swift. Having waited years to see her live again, millions of fans were blocked by a combination of crushing demand, technical breakdown and the ascendance of bot-buyers who funnel tickets to a secondary market that charges sky-high prices. (In the 20th century, they were called scalpers.) As reporter Augusta Saraiva explains, this consumer calamity infuriated Swift’s fans, many of whom are swimming in cash saved up during the pandemic and desperate to spend it, regardless of the shaky economic landscape. This strange state affairs already has a name: “Swiftonomics.” Lawmakers have seized on the popular outrage, uniting with fans against what many have long alleged to be Ticketmaster’s monopoly power. Host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg industry analyst Eleanor Tyler about how the debacle, and its growing political exploitation, may be the tipping point for increased antitrust regulation that finally breaks Ticketmaster’s spell over the live event marketplace. Then we dive headlong into a different thicket: how recycling doesn’t work as advertised. Consumers may feel better about mass consumption because there’s a blue bin for everything, but the hard truth is they’re fooling themselves. Most of the plastics, clothes and other items they seek to recycle wind up in landfills or dumped on the developing world. Along the shoreline of Accra, Ghana, what locals call “dead white people’s clothes” can be found in piles up to six feet high. Reporter Natalie Pearson explains that while fast-fashion chains like H&M and Zara encourage recycling, only a small fraction of their clothes will ever be remade into new items. Bloomberg recently surveyed the problem in Accra, where some 40% of the imported clothes end up as trash, and in the Indian state of Gujarat, where roughly one-third have no use. Finally, Flanders sits down with Bennington College Senior Fellow and visiting faculty member Judith Enck, a US Environmental Protection Agency official during the Obama administration, to discuss just how broken the recycling system is, and how it could be made to work better.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.