The Sound of Economics

Digital banking has made our lives easier, but why are people use mobile banking more likely to be overdrawn? This week Maria Demertzis and Nicholas Barrett are joined by Annamaria Lusardi, Denit Trust Endowed Chair of Economics and Accountancy from George Washington University School of Business to discuss financial literacy

With interest rates so low for so long, central bankers are running out of levers to pull. But perhaps better fiscal policy can help economies grow as well as cutting carbon emissions. Politicians, journalists and economist have spent years bickering about the quantity of public spending in Europe, but the quality of public spending could be just as important. This week's podcast features Maria Demertzis, Boris Cournede, Francesco Papadia and Nicholas Barrett.

The British government has reached a deal with the EU27. The agreement is still subject to approval by the British and European parliaments, as well as the European Council. But is it good news for Brussels? How will Britain strike favourable trade deals when all this is over? And, with a new relationship between Brussels, London and the world yet be realised, is this the beginning of the end or just the end of the beginning?

Nicholas Barrett and Guntram Wolff talk to Kalypso Nicolaïdis, author of Exodus, Reckoning, Sacrifice: Three Meanings of Brexit. Together they discuss the mythology that binds Britain to continental Europe

The European Union and Mercosur – a customs union covering Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – have spent two decades negotiating a trade agreement. The gains are modest the ratification process will be anything but easy. Nevertheless, the deal is worth fighting for according to Uri Dadush. This week he joins Nicholas Barrett on our Deep Focus podcast to discuss the perils and process of an agreement that could be as significant to the globe's climate as it is for the global economy. Read the latest policy contribution by Michael Baltensperger and Uri Dadush on the same topic.

Increasing cyber and hybrid risks will test the European Union’s system of fragmentation on issues of security but centralisation on financial and other economic issues. This asymmetry was not an obstacle in a world in which security threats were more contained or of a different nature. But the world is changing. But what is a hybrid attack and whose responsibility is it to deal with? Last week Bruegel's Director, Guntram Wolff and our Deputy Director Maria Demertzis presented a paper on the subject to ECOFIN, an informal meeting of European finance ministers in Helsinki. In this episode of Bruegel's "Sound of Economics" podcast, Nicholas Barrett sits down with Guntram Wolff to find out.

The layout of the commission has largely changed this year. A key part being that there are now three executive Vice Presidents, driving three main economic issues. Frans Timmermans, responsible for the implementation of the Green Deal; Margrethe Vestager, responsible for the digital age and competition policy and Valdis Dombrovskis, responsible for economy and financial services. The major change being that, in this commission, the Vice Presidents also have their own portfolio and Directorate-Generals to oversee, suggesting these three will be instrumental in driving the political priorities of commission.In this episode of 'The Sound of Economics' Bruegel director Guntram Wolff discusses with Simone Tagliapietra the new commission setup and Ursula von der Leyen's European Green Deal.In his previous blog post on the Green Deal, Simone argues not only does it aim to reduce the continent's emissions, but it also has the potential to grow the EU's economy and transform the bloc's politics. He also states the green deal has the motivation to achieve very high climate targets in quicker time than foreseen.For further reading on this topic, we recommend another recent blog post by Simone Tagliapietra on the global summits between now and November 2020 that are crucial to the future of climate change.

Should competition policy adjust to current concerns and support industrial policy? How can we contextualise long-run consumer welfare? How can we maintain independence and objectivity in enforcement? In this podcast, Rebecca Christie discusses competition policy, with Mathew Heim.

Is current financial architecture working as intended? If not, can it be fixed at the margin, or does it require holistic overhaul? Can such reforms be envisaged in a way that gives satisfaction to most or all member states? In this podcast, Rebecca Christie discusses financial sector architecture with Nicolas Véron.

What can the EU’s incoming leadership do to protect Europe’s economic autonomy in light of America and China’s economic, geopolitical struggle for supremacy? In this podcast, Nicholas Barrett discusses enhancing Europe’s economic sovereignty, with Jean Pisani-Ferry.

How complete is Europe’s monetary union? Is the euro area ready for a next recession or an economic crisis? What should be the reform priorities? In this podcast, Nicholas Barrett discusses the priorities for Europe’s monetary union, with Zsolt Darvas.

Will increasing use of AI, machine learning, robots and big data lead to massive unemployment? How are non-traditional workers and the self-employed to obtain health insurance and pensions? What role should public policy play going forward? In this podcast, Giuseppe Porcaro discusses the future of AI, robots and platform workers, with J. Scott Marcus.

When the last Commission took office in 2014, Europe was consumed by the eurozone crisis. Today, the incoming leadership must decide how to deal with a variety of issues. In this podcast, Rebecca Christie discusses the priorities for the new EU leadership, with Guntram Wolff.

What corporate strategies and public policy support are needed to turn the potential of digital technologies into opportunities for sustainable growth of EU firms, and for addressing EU societal challenges? In this podcast, Giuseppe Porcaro discusses how Europe’s economy can thrive in the digital age, with Reinhilde Veugelers.

How should and will the EU position itself vis-à-vis the US and China, both bilaterally and multilaterally in the context of the WTO system? In this podcast, Giuseppe Porcaro discusses Europe’s trade policy, with André Sapir.

When the dust settles after the recent European elections, and as the new Commission takes office, the problem of climate change - and its accompanying policy challenges - will remain one of the EU's chief agenda items.One significant facet is the transition of Europe's energy generation to more renewable sources. The EU has to find a way to decarbonise particular sectors much more quickly than has been managed so far, while allowing for and managing the distributional consequences of such policies for the continent's population.Simone Tagliapietra has co-written a research paper on energy transition with his Bruegel colleague Georg Zachmann, as well as Jean-Michel Glachant, director of the Florence School of Regulation; Pedro Linares, professor at Universidad Pontificia Comillas; Andreas Loeschel, professor at the University of Muenster; and Ottmar Edenhofer, director and chief economist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.If you would like to read more on this topic, we suggest Simone Tagliapietra's article the geopolitical implications of the global energy transition. Equally, we recommend an episode of our Backstage podcast series, where the same scholar hosts a discussion on the next decade of energy transition in Europe with Sir Philip Lowe, former director general at the European Commission, DG ENER, and Alberto Pototschnig, director at the European Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).

A difficult proposition faces the new ECB president – monetary union remains incomplete, the bank lacks room to manoeuvre in applying new tools, and it is not yet clear what constitutes the new economic ‘normal’.In this episode of 'The Sound of Economics' Bruegel director Guntram Wolff addresses deputy director Maria Demertzis and research fellow Grégory Claeys, who together with senior fellow Francesco Papadia have written a memo to the incoming ECB president.In their note, the authors state that the ECB needs to begin this eight-year term by reviewing monetary policy framework to account for the increasingly uncertain environment in which it will have to operate. In that vein, the incoming president will have to be prepared to emulate previous actions, providing certainty when it cannot be found elsewhere.In addition, the authors propose methods by which the ECB can bolster the euro-area architecture while continuing to fulfil its role in promoting financial stability.For further reading on this topic, we recommend a recent blog post by Grégory Claeys and Tanja Linta on the evolution of the ECB governing council's monetary-policy decision-making process.

The next president of the ECB, much like his predecessors, will have the difficult task of dealing with the balance between speaking with one voice and making timely, optimal decisions for the euro area as a whole. In this episode of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis speaks with Bruegel research fellow Grégory Claeys about the evolution of decision-making of the previous three governors and the differences in the effects of interest rates. Grégory Claeys and Tanja Linta have published a blog post creating a database to look back and examine precisely how decisions have been taken since the ECB was created.

Cohesion policy remains a contentious topic in the EU, central as it is to the matter of convergence between regions. The need to share economic growth throughout the bloc is particularly acute in the wake of notable electoral advances from several more populist political parties in Europe in recent years.Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas explains how his recent study, co-written with Jan Mazza and Catarina Midões, adopts a new methodology with the aim of avoiding the complicating factors that have underpinned the greatly varied results of many previous assessments of cohesion-policy effectiveness. He explains further how the EU might refine its implementation of cohesion policy, and looks ahead to what might be the biggest obstacles to improvement.For further reading, we recommend the Bruegel Policy Contribution at the centre of this Deep Focus episode, ‘How to improve European Union cohesion policy for the next decade’.

The next presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament will inherit a relatively healthy European economy, but will face three formidable challenges in the next five years. First, the incoming presidents must define Europe’s place in an increasingly bipolar world driven by a geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China. Second, global warming is a reality and temperatures appear to be rising faster than forecast. Third, the three presidents need to manage the economy and EU cohesion. In this episode of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Bruegel director Guntram Wolff speaks with Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis about the specific measures that the new incumbents should take to tackle these challenges. Together with senior fellow André Sapir, the two discussants have co-written Bruegel’s memo to the three new presidents, elaborating on the policy priorities for the next institutional cycle.

In this episode of 'The Sound of Economics', Bruegel senior fellow Georg Zachmann continues the Backstage series with an interview with Massimo Tavoni, professor at the Politecnico di Milano and director of EIEE.The discussion point is climate modelling - specifically its use and the necessity of complexity in some of its formulations.Some climate models are very straightforward, and this allows for the building of a solid base. But interaction between complex systems requires consideration of a multitude of factors, not all of which are easily measurable.Modelling can be productive as a means of plotting a route to a policy goal such as the Paris Agreement. And the outcomes are best viewed as producing only one of many possible routes that could be taken.These models are increasingly relevant for numerous sectors, all beginning to factor in not only climate change but climate-change policy.If you are interested in more on this topic, we recommend the Bruegel Blueprint co-written by Georg Zachmann with Grégory Caleys and Gustav Fredriksson on the distributional effects of climate policies.

The European Union's next framework programme for innovation and research - 'FP9', better known as Horizon Europe - will run from 2021 to 2027. With the rise of China as an increasingly direct competitor with the EU and the US, this will be a vital period. Bruegel senior fellow Reinhilde Veugelers, together with Michael Baltensperger, has produced an analysis for the European Parliament's Committee on Industry, Research and Energy. The research paper, on which Reinhilde elaborates in this episode of the Deep Focus podcast, looks at what needs to be prioritised in the next framework programme in order to maintain and improve Europe's position as a leader in this increasingly competitive field. For further reading we recommend the paper in question, 'Europe – the global centre for excellent research', as well as Reinhilde Veugeler's previous Bruegel Policy Contribution, 'Are European firms falling behind in the global corporate research race?'

The keyword in Ukraine right now is ‘uncertainty’, as the country prepares to elect a new parliament in July only a few months after electing a new president. Not only will the new government have a role in stabilising and growing the economy following the 2014-15 economic crisis, but they will face the challenge of a large debt repayment during their term while dealing with an aggressive Russia. In a political climate that is known for being corrupt and not respecting the rule of law, there are opportunities to change the country beyond economic policy. In this episode of the Backstage podcast series, Giuseppe Porcaro, head of communications and events at Bruegel, hosts non-resident fellow Marek Dabrowski and Hlib Vyshlinsky, executive director at the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) to discuss the opportunities for the new government and the best recipe of reforms. For further reading, we recommend this blog post written by Marek Dabrowski about Ukraine’s struggle for reform, as well as this policy contribution on Ukraine’s unfinished reform agenda.

An analysis of the results of the most recent European elections reveals what Bruegel director Guntram Wolff classifies as a generally positive trend in electoral participation across the EU, with an overall increase of 7% in voter turnout since the last elections in 2014. Additionally, populist parties in the European Parliament seem to have been prevented from gaining ground.However, election results in some EU member states were not as pro-EU at the national level. In this podcast, Guntram Wolff welcomes Ferdinando Giugliano from Bloomberg and Krzysztof Blusz from WiseEuropa to discuss the results in each guest's home countries - Italy and Poland, respectively - and how the nationalist trends in each state might play a role in politics in the new European Parliament and European Commission.If you are interested in Bruegel's work concerning the European elections, we recommend our blog post: ‘Spitzenkandidaten visions for the future of Europe’s economy’, which features the candidates for the next president of the European Commission. You can also visit the main page for our Spitzenkandidaten series, to review the content in full.

Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and visiting fellow Rebecca Christie to reflect on the key policy positions taken by the candidates for the European Commission presidency, ahead of May's elections.European elections are fast approaching. With them comes not just a visit to the polls, but the beginning of a sequence involving the European Parliament and the Council that will eventually decide who becomes the next president of the Commission. The Spitzenkandidaten process sees each of the parties put forward their nominated candidate - or candidates - one of whom should eventually assume the presidency, if the various criteria can be met.Looking back upon Bruegel's recent six-part series of events, held in partnership with the Financial Times, the discussants assess the candidates' views on Europe's future industrial policy path, the EU's stance on the growing trade dispute between the US and China, as well as the most vital and realistic euro-area reforms for the next five years. The debate also considers how each of the candidates might be positioning themselves and their parties in the complex process of selecting a new president.Giuseppe Porcaro leads the review with Bruegel visiting fellow Rebecca Christie and director Guntram Wolff, in this special edition of the Backstage series.If you would like to review the series in more depth, we recommend our blog post: ‘Spitzenkandidaten visions for the future of Europe’s economy’, which contains extracts and video clips from the events. You can also visit the main page for our Spitzenkandidaten series, to review the content in full.

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and Bruegel fellow Uri Dadush welcome William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for a discussion of how China-US relations are developing in the context of unfolding trade war.With President Trump increasing tariffs on the US' imports from China and China retaliating in kind, the trade dispute between the two countries is escalating quickly.Here the discussants elaborate on the disruption caused by trade tariffs, the likelihood of China acquiescing to US demands with regard to economic reform, and where the EU might figure in the stand-off. Guntram Wolff introduces this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', welcoming Bruegel fellow Uri Dadush as well as William Alan Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. If you are interested in more of Bruegel's work on this topic, we suggest Uri Dadush's blog post on the full implications of the escalating trade dispute between the US and China. We also recommend Alicia García-Herrero's working paper on the EU's options amid the China-US trade turmoil.

'The Sound of Economics' podcast continues with an instalment of the Deep Focus series, with Bruegel fellow Marek Dabrowski talking to Sean Gibson about the findings of his research paper on Russia's growth problems (co-written with Antoine Mathieu Collin).The Russian economy has weathered several crises in recent decades, most recently between 2014-16. Though this latest dip was relatively not so deep, growth has returned much more slowly this time around than in previous years.Some problems are age-old, while others are a product of recent political movements and developments. In this episode the conversation specifies some of Russia's institutional shortcomings and structural economic weaknesses, accounting for the country's efforts at macroeconomic management and the evolving demographic difficulties particularly concerning Russia's working-age population. The discussion also reflects on the particular economic impacts of Russia's involvement in Ukraine, and looks ahead to the most vital and realistic possible remedial measures that could yet be taken.If you are interested in more of Bruegel's work on this topic, we recommend Marek Dabrowski's blog post on how Russia's foreign policy obstructs its attempts at economic modernisation. Also consider the same author's recent publication, 'Can emerging markets be a source of global troubles again?'

Bruegel fellows Rebecca Christie and Nicolas Véron discuss how the map of the EU's financial services industry has begun to change, and how it might eventually settle.The Brexit process has begun to unravel the supremacy of London as the financial centre of Europe, yet it remains unclear how the map of the EU's financial system will eventually be refigured.Several cities have emerged to compete not only for the business that is leaving the UK's capital but for new investment as well. This raises broader questions about whether it is more beneficial to have a single hub or to spread financial services across numerous locations. It also poses difficulties for firms that relocate, some of whose general staff may prefer a different destination to that desired by the lawyers and compliance officers.Brexit has set in motion events that will not be undone even if the UK were to throw the process in full reverse, and remain in the EU, and the idea has been mooted that Brexit merely accelerated a desertion of London that may have happened in any case. Still, the future landscape of the EU's financial services industry will still largely depend on the final shape of the UK's future relationship with the EU. Broadly, observers would expect a harder Brexit to yield a swifter and more seismic movement away from London.In this episode of the Bruegel Backstage podcast series, Bruegel visiting fellow Rebecca Christie and senior fellow Nicolas Véron discuss the early developments in this direction, and the likeliest areas of future progression.Each of the discussants made presentations at the Bruegel event 'The emerging new geography of financial centers in Europe', which was conducted under the Chatham House rule.For further reading, we recommend this article written by Nicolas Véron about the relocation of banking business from London to elsewhere in Europe in the wake of the Brexit referendum vote.

Maria Demertzis sits down with Bruegel senior fellow André Sapir to break down the news, discussing the events leading up to the renewed EU-US trade talks, and the likely future course. On 15 April 2019, the European Council approved mandates for the Commission to resume trade negotiations with the United States, which are to be centered around eliminating industrial tariffs. Although already a breakthrough, the talks are set to encounter many difficulties given their highly political nature. Bruegel's deputy director Maria Demertzis sits down with senior fellow André Sapir to assess the news, discussing the events leading up to the renewed talks and the likely future outcomes. A consistent theme in the making of any EU trade deal is the repeated declaration that it would only engage with countries that are signatories to the Paris Agreement. In 2017, the Trump administration announced the US' intention to withdraw from that agreement, which should in theory exclude the possibility of a trade deal. Maria and Andre discuss just how likely it is for the deal to come to fruition against this backdrop. Lastly, the discussants touch upon how the fractured EU-US trade relationship affects the multilateral trading system and, by extension, global economic growth. For further reading, we recommend the Policy Contribution of Uri Dadush and Guntram Wolff, which analyses how Europe can act in the interest both of itself and the multilateral system amid the ongoing global trade crisis. Similarly, consider Alicia García-Herrero's recent Working Paper on the the options available to the EU in the face of the US-China trade stand-off.

In this episode of the Director's cut, Guntram Wolff discusses with Alicia Garcia Herrero about the results of the 21st EU-China Summit. The EU and China committed to further strengthen the EU-China strategic partnership at the 21st EU-China summit. Both sides agreed on a joint statement setting out the direction for EU-China relations in the years to come. Leaders expressed their joint support for multilateralism and rules-based trade. They reaffirmed their joint engagement to reform the World Trade Organisation. The EU and China agreed to work together to address industrial subsidies. They also discussed foreign and security issues in their respective neighbourhoods.Bruegel's director and Alicia Garcia Herrero comment on the joint declaration and the challenges for the next steps in this cooperation. Further reading on Eu-China on Bruegel website

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff talks to Padmashree Gehl Sampath, a Berkman Klein fellow at Harvard University, on the consequences of ‘new manufacturing’ for European industrial policymaking.In this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Bruegel’s Guntram Wolff discusses Industry 4.0 with Harvard University Berkman Klein fellow Padmashree Gehl Sampath.Europe is yet to truly explore what interventions can and should be made with regard to the digitisation of industrial policy. But the ongoing development of technologies obliges the EU to examine how best to create a level playing-field for companies, and how to ensure that newly compiled sets of data can contribute positively to the welfare of its citizens.The deployment of Europe’s General Data Protection Regulation brought into focus the potential negative consequences of people’s data being amassed. Yet, as the discussants consider here, there are many potential works to which these data can be put that would serve a greater public good. But this will only follow once policymakers formulate fresh approaches tailored to the challenge, and propose how they will follow through on their aforementioned obligations.If you would like to read more on this topic, we recommend our blog post by Silvia Merler on machine learning and economics.

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and senior fellow André Sapir discuss how potential WTO reform might position the organisation differently towards China.In this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', Guntram Wolff talks to Bruegel senior fellow André Sapir about his upcoming paper on the WTO reform, specifically what is necessary in order for the Chinese economic system to be compatible with the global multilateral trading system.China has recently been atop the European policy agenda, especially with President Xi's recent visits to Rome and Paris ahead of the EU-China Summit in April. The discussants here walk us through the main challenges in the EU's quest to position itself vis-à-vis China, including the issues of forced technology transfers and the behaviour of Chinese state-owned enterprises.For further reading, we recommend the Bruegel Policy Contribution by Uri Dadush and Guntram Wolff on how Europe should approach the unfolding crisis in global trade.

This episode of 'The Sound of Economics' features Bruegel senior fellow J. Scott Marcus in conversation with Lise Fuhr, director general, European Telecommunications Network Operators' Association (ETNO).The next wave of mobile network innovation is provoking great excitement in the industry. And indeed, there is substantial potential for improvement. However, the exact form of the technology and the appropriate policy support are still far from clear. The next generation of mobile technology, 5G, is being developed along markedly different lines from previous generations. In the past, mobile generations were generally characterised by a core technology (or sometimes by two or more core technologies), and were designed to fulfil the requirements of a fairly small number of mobile voice and data applications. By contrast, 5G is being developed to fulfil the needs of multiple use cases.In this episode Scott Marcus and Lise Fuhr outline the challenges of 5G deployment in Europe, their policy implications, and the impact for the citizens. For further reading we recommend the blog post by Scott Marcus High expectations for 5G confront practical realities.This podcast was recorded during the event Rethinking Industrial Policy in the Digital Age, an all-day conference held on 21 March 2019, about how the European policy-making will have to adapt to the digital transformation.

Bruegel's Maria Demertzis welcomes Yale Law School professor Yair Listokin to this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', to discuss how law might be deployed as a macroeconomic tool to counter financial crisis.In this episode of Director's Cut, Bruegel's deputy director Maria Demertzis talks to Yair Listokin, a professor at Yale Law School, about the effect law could have on achieving macroeconomic objectives.In his new book titled 'Law and Macroeconomics', Yair Listokin puts forward the idea that law has the ability to function as an instrument of macroeconomic policy. He argues that the time it took for private spending to recover after the 2008 financial crisis could have been cut, had legislation played a more vital role in the process.Here the two elaborate on these ideas, focusing particularly on the perceived trade-off between law's role in maintaining stability, and its potential to be used as a real-time response to economic shocks. They also discuss the applicability of this policy approach in the European reality of multiple legal frameworks and central banks struggling to stimulate aggregate demand at the zero lower interest rate bound.You can find more on macroeconomic policy in previous editions of the Director's Cut. First, we recommend Bruegel director Guntram Wolff's conversation about the growth and stability challenges facing the global financial system, with Tharman Shanmugaratnam, deputy prime minister of Singapore and chair of the G20 Eminent Persons Group, and Jean Pisani-Ferry, mercator senior fellow at Bruegel. Second, consider Maria Demertzis' discussion with Martin Sandbu of the Financial Times, on the topic of what the field of economics has learned in the decade since the financial crisis.

This episode of 'The Sound of Economics' features Bruegel visiting fellow Elina Ribakova in conversation with Marc-Olivier Padis and Jean-Paul Tran Thiet about the reform of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS). Asylum is a fundamental human right and an international obligation, first recognised in the 1951 Geneva Convention on the protection of refugees. Between 2013 and 2017, 4 million asylum applications were filed in the EU. This high number resulted in growing tensions between Member States, with some of them displaying non-cooperative behaviour. The migration crisis of 2015 revealed the inadequacies of European legal tools and, by extension, management of migration flows. In this context, Institut Montaigne jointly with Terra Nova have written a report which calls for a reform of the European asylum policy and for a rapid, unified response to the humanitarian emergency in the Mediterranean. In the context of recent rise of populism and nationalist tendencies in Europe, creating a binding mechanism for solidarity is a daunting task. Currently, the EU is in the process of reshaping the Common European Asylum System, but the negotiations have shown close to no progress. In this episode of Backstage, Elina Ribakova, a visiting fellow at Bruegel welcomes Marc-Olivier Padis, head of studies department at Terra Nova, and Jean-Paul Tran Thiet, senior fellow at Institut Montaigne, to make a case for this reform. Together, they discuss the key elements of the revised system, which include improved monitoring of the asylum process, as well as efforts for equitable burden sharing. For further reading, we recommend our blueprint “People on the move: migration and mobility in the European Union“, written by Uuriintuya Batsaikhan, Zsolt Darvas and Inês Gonçalves Raposo. Zolt Darvas also contributed to the debate on migration and refugees in Europe with two blogs on similar topics: “Beyond border control, migrant integration policies must be revived“ and “The challenge of fostering financial inclusion of refugees“. This podcast episode was recorded during an event Saving the right to asylum on March 5th, 2019.

This episode of 'The Sound of Economics' features Bruegel research fellow Simone Tagliapietra in conversation with Sir Philip Lowe and Alberto Pototschnig about the progress of the European energy transition as we prepare to enter the third decade of the 21st century. In this episode of Backstage, Bruegel's Simone Tagliapietra welcomes Sir Philip Lowe, former director general at the European Commission, DG ENER, and Alberto Pototschnig, director at the European Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). Together, they elaborate on the main trends driving the European energy transition towards greater sustainability, energy security and economic competitiveness. They also assess whether the EU has the necessary institutions to ensure a smooth process for a rapidly growing and more integrated energy market. Among the key challenges is the effective management of an increasingly democratised energy sector, which requires – among many things – innovative solutions in energy storage and use of renewables. The discussants also touch upon the subject of distributional effect of climate policies, as the recent unrest in France shows that this issue will sit high on the agenda as new strategies are implemented over the coming years. For further reading, we recommend a Policy Contribution co-authored by Simone Tagliapietra on European automotive industry's place in the global electric vehicle revolution, as well as a Blueprint by Grégory Claeys, Gustav Fredriksson and Georg Zachmann on distributional effects of climate policies. This podcast episode was recorded during an event The European Energy Transition: A year ahead of the Twenties on February 19th, 2019.

Bruegel fellow Dirk Schoenmaker walks Sean Gibson and 'The Sound of Economics' listeners through his latest working paper, focusing on how to make monetary policy in Europe more climate-friendlyIn this episode of the Deep Focus podcast series, Bruegel's Dirk Schoenmaker explains his proposed greener alternative to the ECB's current 'market-neutral' approach to monetary policy.Elaborating on research contained within a recent Bruegel working paper, the author shows that significant strides can be made while remaining within existing constraints and with due considerations for the primary vital purpose of monetary policy.If you would like to learn more on this topic, we recommend Dirk Schoenmaker's blog post on greening monetary policy, published in conjunction with the aforementioned working paper.

In this episode of Director's Cut, Stephanie Segal of CSIS joins Bruegel's Guntram Wolff and Maria Demertzis for a conversation about the tension between free trade and national security issues, and the emerging threats to multilateralism.In a changing geopolitical order, with China on the rise, the linkage of economic and national security is more evident than ever. The boom of disruptive new technologies is accompanied by increasingly country-centric political tendencies, and the more and more antagonistic stance of the US towards the EU and China. Taken together, a unique setting emerges for dealing with pressing issues in economic security.Stephanie Segal, deputy director and senior fellow of the CSIS Simon Chair in Political Economy, joins Bruegel director Guntram Wolff and deputy director Maria Demertzis to discuss the looming challenges.They sketch out the approach taken by key global players to balance the continuous benefits of free trade against the need to safeguard national security interests. The new trade-restrictive measures – such as increased scrutiny over foreign direct investment – have obvious consequences for global economic growth and the rules-based multilateral trading system. The discussants elaborate on the importance of preserving multilateralism, and the role of international organisations in the process. For further reading, we recommend an opinion piece by Jean Pisani-Ferry where he portrays the current international economic and geopolitical order as increasingly reminiscent of chess, as well as an economic blogs review by Bowen Call on the impact of recent US mid-term elections on the world economy.

Bruegel senior fellow J. Scott Marcus joins Sean Gibson for this episode of Deep Focus on the 'The Sound of Economics', elaborating on a Bruegel study for the European Parliament into the progress made with the Commission's Digital Single Market Strategy since 2015.In a study for the European Parliament, Bruegel senior fellow J. Scott Marcus (together with co-authors Georgios Petropoulos and Timothy Yeung) has reviewed the gains delivered so far by these new measures, insofar as they can yet be determined. The authors also look at what the next legislative term might deliver, what realistic progress can be expected and what business remains unfinished regarding measures implemented by the current Commission. Speaking to Bruegel press officer Sean Gibson in this episode of the Deep Focus podcast series, Scott Marcus specifies some of the real achievements that the DSM can - and, indeed, has begun to - deliver for both consumers and producers. More broadly, the DSM is put in the context of efforts to digitise European society, specifically how well policies towards the former are keeping pace with the latter. We invite you to review the research paper in question in this episode, but also recommend consulting Scott Marcus' testimony before the European Parliament Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection (IMCO).

Bruegel fellows Alicia García-Herrero and Uri Dadush join Guntram Wolff for this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', focusing on the progress made by China's Belt and Road Initiative, how it will continue to develop, and the reactions it has stirred across the world.China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a trade and development strategy proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013. It aims to enhance development prospects via infrastructure, trade, and investment on a trans-continental scale, and is hence often referred to as 'the 21st century's Silk Road'.Five years after its launch, how well has the BRI been received and how much potential does it still hold? Two Bruegel scholars, Alicia García-Herrero and Uri Dadush sit down with Bruegel's director Guntram Wolff to discuss their analyses of the initiative.In a recent Policy Contribution, Uri Dadush and Michael Baltensperger reflect on the background and context of the BRI, and critically assess the project's potential for future performance. In this podcast episode, Uri points to the worrisome aspects of the initiative, particularly the lack of transparency and due diligence concerning the issue of debt trap, as well as China's poor regard for the possible environmental impact.In a newly released Working Paper, Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu analyse large amounts of data to identify the trends in the global perception of the BRI. In this episode Alicia lets us in on their findings. For example, she explains why – despite the generally positive image of the initiative – it is the Central European countries, which benefited from substantial assistance from China, that have a relatively negative perception of the initiative.For further reading, you may consider Simone Tagliapietra and Shivali Pandya's blog post on Chinese investment in European maritime ports, as well as a piece by Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu discussing what the Belt and Road Initiative means for EU trade.

This episode of The Sound of Economics features Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas in conversation with Maurizio Bussolo and Bernadette Ségol about income inequality in Europe and Central Asia, and the policy principles underpinning a possible new social contract. Although income distribution in Europe and Central Asia reaches a fairly egalitarian standard relative to the rest of the world, the current levels of inequality among individuals and households are a major cause of dissatisfaction. In the time of globalisation and rapid technological change, when income inequalities heavily affect people's security and well-being, the demand for a new social contract (and hence welfare state) is apparent. But what would a renewed social contract look like?In this episode of Bruegel Backstage, senior fellow Zsolt Darvas talks to Maurizio Bussolo, the lead economist for Europe and Central Asia at the World Bank, and Bernadette Ségol, the former secretary general of the European Trade Union Confederation.The document that brings them together is the recently published World Bank report, “Towards a New Social Contract: Taking on Distributional Tensions in Europe and Central Asia”, co-written by Maurizio Bussolo. It highlights the shortcomings of the current systems both for taxes and transfers and for labour-market regulation. The report sketches out the policy principles to guide a potential new social contract, principles that assume universal social assistance and insurance, labour protection, and more progressive taxation. If implemented, the report suggests, these measures would improve mobility and flexibility, helping to overcome the inequality traps and provide a broader, more just access to opportunities.For further reading, you may consider Zsolt Darvas' blog post on the EU income inequality decline, as well as a publication on the hardships of achieving the EU's poverty target by the same author.This podcast was recorded following a Bruegel event, "Towards a new social contract" on January 24th 2019.

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by senior fellow Zsolt Darvas to rake through the possibilities and probabilities inherent in a no-deal Brexit scenario, covering trade, the Irish border, citizens' rights and the EU budget.Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas joins Guntram Wolff for this Director's Cut, to discuss the economic fall-out of a no-deal Brexit.While the UK remains without an agreement on the nature of its relationship with the EU beyond March 29th 2019, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit - and its bundle of complex permutations for each sector - is still on the table.What would a WTO-based trade relationship between the EU and the UK look like in reality? Beneath surface-level tariffs, the value chains that would be broken by a hard border in the English Channel could have far-reaching consequences. And in Ireland, the more innovative border solutions remain mostly unsubstantiated, and at the very least would require a long implementation period - the time for which has long since passed.A no-deal Brexit also has implications for the EU budget. Our calculations specify the gap to be filled if the UK were to stop contributing immediately, as well as the spread of the additional burden across the EU's member countries.For further reading on this subject, consider Guntram Wolff's Policy Contribution on how well prepared the EU might be for a no-deal Brexit scenario, as well as Zsolt Darvas' full breakdown of the implications for the EU budget of the UK 'crashing out' of the union.

Bruegel fellows Reinhilde Veugelers and Simone Tagliapietra elaborate on the recent Policy Contribution they co-authored on the European automotive industry in the light of the global electric vehicle revolution.Electrification is a key trend transforming the global automotive industry, especially in the light of increased decarbonisation efforts. The speed at which the technology is being developed and the decreasing production costs make for a rather optimistic prognosis for future global deployment of electric vehicles (EVs). The automotive sector is undoubtedly an important one for the EU economy, yet it has lagged behind in terms of both EV manufacturing and deployment.In this episode of Deep Focus, Sean Gibson interviews Reinhilde Veugelers and Simone Tagliapietra, the co-authors of a recently published Policy Contribution on the EU automotive industry and the global EV revolution. European manufacturers have extensive experience, robust R&D projects and a large internal market, but can they make the switch to EVs sufficiently fast to remain competitive? To answer that question, Reinhilde and Simone outline the current picture of China's industry and point to the lessons that can be learnt from their electrification success story. While Europe cannot and should not adopt the centrally planned policy measures, a more comprehensive policy framework combining both demand- and supply-side instruments is necessary to bring the industry back up to speed.The research discussed in this episode is available in full in the Bruegel Policy Contribution, "Is the European automotive industry ready for the global electric vehicle revolution?", by Gustav Fredriksson, Alexander Roth, Simone Tagliapietra and Reinhilde Veugelers. For further reading, we recommend a blog post on low carbon technology exports by Georg Zachmann and Enrico Nano.

With 2018 drawing to a close, and the dawn of 2019 imminent, Bruegel's scholars reflect on the economic policy developments we can expect in the new year – one that brings with it the additional uncertainty of European elections.These elections will be a bellwether for the continent-wide rise of populist politics that has been a defining characteristic of the year past. The results will certainly have profound consequences for all policy debates within the EU, but also for the bloc's relationship with external partners. The shifts in the geopolitical landscape have borne a trade war, prompting renewed talk of closer ties between China and the EU, the potential internationalisation of the euro, and how the multilateral trading system might be saved, reformed, or left behind.Meanwhile, 2019 promises fierce debate of the next EU budget for 2020-2027, not entirely separate from the mooted euro-area budget and the ongoing efforts at euro-area reform and expansion. The upcoming elections will be pivotal in determining the complexion of these discussions as the year progresses.Speakers: Maria DemertzisJean Pisani-FerryFrancesco PapadiaElina RibakovaAndré SapirNicolas VéronThomas WieserGuntram Wolff

Bruegel senior scholar Zsolt Darvas speaks about his review of systematic errors in ECB forecasting, in another instalment of the Deep Focus podcast on 'The Sound of Economics' channelIn this episode of the Deep Focus, Sean Gibson speaks with Bruegel senior scholar Zsolt Darvas about his research on European Central Bank forecasting.Zsolt has analysed that, over the past five years, ECB forecasts have proven to be systematically incorrect: core inflation remained broadly stable at 1% despite the stubbornly predicted increase, while the unemployment rate fell faster than predicted.Such forecast errors, which are also inconsistent with each other, raise serious doubts about the reliability of the ECB’s current forecast of accelerating core inflation, and necessitates a reflection on the inflation aim of the ECB.You may also be interested in this blog post by Zsolt Darvas, which contains charts illustrating just how erroneous the ECB's forecasting on inflation and unemployment has become in recent times.

Bruegel fellow Georg Zachmann talks through a Bruegel Blueprint he has co-authored, looking into the potential distributional effects of climate policies, in another episode of the Deep Focus series. Climate change is one of the big questions of this century, and mitigating its effects remains an enormous challenge. Decarbonisation will require a massive shift in our economies. Heating, transport, electricity and industry will have to transition to a world without fossil fuels. Agriculture and industry will have to find new ways to reduce emissions. This aim – as ambitious as it is essential – necessitates intrusive climate policies. In this episode of Deep Focus, Sean Gibson interviews Georg Zachmann, a co-author of a recently published Blueprint on distributional effects of climate policies. They untangle the complicated picture of said effects, which may vary depending on the policy tool and its design, the sector addressed and the initial socio-economic conditions in the country. Some policy tools such as carbon taxes may leave low-income households worse off, while policies such as taxes on aviation may leave them better off relative to high-income households. Others, like public investment and agriculture policies, still have unclear effects. One thing is for certain: whatever distributional effects climate policies may have, they constitute no argument against their implementation. Climate change would leave everyone worse off and disproportionately hit the poorest part of the population. It is therefore essential to design policies in a way that minimises the adverse effects on those most vulnerable. For further reading, you might consider an opinion piece by Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann on what the “gilets jaunes” movement tells us about environment and climate policies, as well as their blog post on the EU energy industry transformation.

In this episode of the Backstage series, Bruegel's Non-Resident Fellow Dirk Schoenmaker welcomes Molly Scott Cato, a Green party MEP for South West England, for a conversation on the EU's plan to transition towards sustainable finance.To achieve the EU's 2030 targets agreed in Paris, such as a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions, in May 2018, the Commission announced its action plan on sustainable finance. Its aims are, among others, to facilitate sustainable investment and improve the availability of information on investments carbon footprint. Molly Scott-Cato in conversation with Dirk Schoenmaker outlines the details of the plan and elaborates on the steps necessary for the transition from brown to green finance, from vast investments into public infrastructure to the introduction of carbon tax on aviation. While it is important to introduce dynamism to the discussion, we have to keep in mind to balance the sense of desperate urgency to avoid a systemic crisis.For further reading, you might consider a policy contribution by the same author Sustainable investing: How to do it.This podcast episode was recorded during the event How to speed up sustainable finance? on the 28 of November

Bruegel's director Guntram Wolff looks at north Africa's economic growth in the light of the region's trade agreements with the EU, welcoming Karim El Aynaoui and Uri Dadush to the Backstage series on 'The Sound of Economics'.In this episode of Backstage, Bruegel's director Guntram Wolff welcomes Uri Dadush, a non-resident scholar at Bruegel and a Senior Fellow at the OCP Policy Center, as well as Karim El Aynaoui, managing director at the OCP Policy Center. Together, they look at north Africa's economic growth in the light of the region's trade agreements with the EU.This podcast episode touches upon a Policy Contribution co-authored by Uri Dadush, which provides an economic assessment of the EU-north Africa trade agreements. While their performance is not spectacular, the agreements' common view often appears too harsh, especially bearing in mind the unfavourable domestic and international environment in which they came into force.Despite the visible misallocation of capital and insufficient job creation, some sectors in the region – such as the automotive, pharmaceutical and aeronautical industries in Morocco – are doing exceptionally well, both in terms of performance and integration. The question remains about the potential direction the region may wish to take when moving forward with its growth plan. To ensure strengthened EU-north Africa value chains, we have to move beyond the blanket-approach and instead reward the best performance.For further reading, you might consider an opinion piece on the China-Africa economic relationship written by Alicia García-Herrero, as well as a blog post by Marek Dabrowski and Yana Myachenkova on the difficult task of achieving free trade in Africa.This podcast episode was recorded during the third edition of the "Platform for Advanced & Emerging Economies Policy Dialogue", which focused on the core theme of “Policy Responses for an EU-MENA shared future”.

In this episode of the Director's cut, Bruegel's director Guntram Wolff hosts a conversation with Danièle Nouy, the first chair of the European Single Supervisory Mechanism. On the eve of the end of her mandate she traces the legacy of her five years and the prospects for the future of banking supervision in Europe.

In November 2008, the first G20 summit at the leaders' level took place amid the global financial crisis. The admittedly ambitious undertaking has since played its role in stabilising the global economy throughout the aftershocks of the crash. Today, the global order looks much different to the one in which the G20 found itself 10 years ago. How has the institution evolved and is it still equipped to create a supportive political environment for strong national and global actions? In this episode of Bruegel's Deep Focus series on 'The Sound of Economics', Suman Bery reviews the G20's performance over the past decade to identify the challenges for the future. After the initial success, he identifies a sense of complacency that has seemingly crept into the global forum. Moreover, the emerging and developing economy members have remained observably passive, which may reflect their discomfort at their perceived systemic importance despite lower levels of income. A further challenge for the G20 arises from Donald Trump assuming the US presidency in 2016, and the following tendency to drift away from multilateralism in favour of bilateral trade. The upcoming summit in Buenos Aires may be revealing in terms of just how much the G20 depends on American leadership. Another question remains about what potential the EU has as a future leader within the institution. One thing is certain: to champion a comprehensive approach, the G20 must conceive a set of rules that closer reflects the changing world. For further reading we suggest not only the Policy Contribution written by Suman Bery – 'The G20 turns ten: what’s past is prologue' – but also the blog post of Jim O'Neill and Alessio Terzi, outlining a proposal for a reformation of the G7.