The Sound of Economics

Here's what's clear: public spending is on the rise. Public expenditure ratios have quadrupled since 1870, and increased even more in the recent COVID-19 pandemic.Is that good or bad? What does responsible public spending look like? How should governments institute reforms in order to improve their public spending agendas?These questions are less clear. Bruegel's Director, Guntram Wolff, sits down with Former Deputy Secretary-General of OECD, Ludger Schuknecht to discuss the issues surrounding public spending in post-pandemic economies.

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! On July 1st, 2021, the Chinese Communist Party celebrated its 100th anniversary. Today, Bruegel's Giuseppe Porcaro speaks with Bruegel Senior Fellow Alicia García-Herrero and Professor Steve Tsang, Director of SOAS China Institute at University of London about the past, present, and future of the Party. What are the Party's successes and failures? What is the "China model"? Will it ever be exported to other nations? Can the country's economic success continue?

When COVID-19 struck last spring, European governments rapidly implemented measures to keep businesses afloat. Did those policies support productive firms that bolster the economy? Or, did the policies merely enable the survival of "zombie" firms that ought to have gone bankrupt?One year into the pandemic, Bruegel Deputy Director Maria Demertzis speaks with professors Steffen Müller, Filippo di Mauro, and Carlo Altomonte about whether or not fiscal policy has been successful throughout the pandemic, and how governments can deftly adapt their measures to revitalize their economies as more people across Europe receive COVID-19 vaccinations.Relevant event: The impact of COVID-19 on productivity: preliminary firm evidence with Carlo Altomonte, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Maria Demertzis, Filippo di Mauro and Steffen Müller.

‘Technological change is revolutionising the workplace’, ‘the future is automated’ and ‘a robot will be doing my work before long’ are phrases we hear a lot when it comes to discussing the impact of technological advancement on the labour market and skills. But what is the real impact of robots or AI on the workforce? And, how can we steer technological change in a direction that is labour-complementing and welfare enhancing? How can governments and businesses help workers to adapt to technological change, through reskilling and transitioning initiatives?As part of Bruegel’s Future of work and inclusive growth project, Bruegel fellow Laura Nurski and Dimitrios Pikios, ESCO Project coordinator at DG Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion at European Commission joined Giuseppe Porcaro to talk about the risks of automation, deskilling but also the opportunities for new learning that come with technology and what policymakers can do to facilitate this.

As the only global international organisation dealing with the rules of trade between nations, the World Trade Organisation should be the place where governments sort out the trade problems they face with each other. However, in recent years, WTO members have not managed to conclude new agreements to liberalise trade in goods and services. The organisation has not played a significant role in defusing and addressing the trade conflict between the US and China. It was also largely ‘missing in action’ during the first stages of the global COVID-19 pandemic.All these lead to the conclusion that reform is necessary – whether the political will exists to re engage multilaterally and pursue it is another question. In this live podcast, Giuseppe Porcaro and Niclas Poitiers are joined by Bernard Hoekman, Professor and Director of Global Economics at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute in Florence; Petros C. Mavroidis, Edwin B. Parker Professor of Law at Columbia Law School in New York and Anna Dias, Lawyer and partner at Gide Loyrette Nouel in Paris. Together they discuss what areas of reform the WTO should prioritise, and what challenges it would face.Revelant Publications: China and the WTO: Why Multilateralism Still Matters, Book by Petros C. Mavroidis and André Sapir. Avoiding a Requiem for the WTO, Article by Petros C. Mavroidis and Bernard Hoekman. *This article is part of the Revue européenne du droit (RED) issue on global governance, which you can read here.This podcast is organised together with the editorial team of RED which we thank for the support.

President Biden is visiting Brussels for the first time since his inauguration on 14 June, with great expectations by European commentators to forge a closer transatlantic cooperation. Prior to his visit, Giuseppe Porcaro and Simone Tagliapietra are joined by Ana Palacio, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain to discuss why the two sides of the Atlantic should form a climate alliance, which are the challenges the EU and the US will have to overcome; and most importantly, if this joint cooperation would be enough to leverage the rest of the world. Relevant publications: A transatlantic climate alliance, Opinion by Ana Palacio and Simone Tagliapietra

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics.ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!Since 2010, the landscape of China’s largest companies has shifted away from the dominance of state-owned enterprises towards a more diverse and complex landscape with an increasing number of mixed-ownership enterprises and non-public enterprises.This evolution, however, has been far from linear with Chinese private companies facing several challenges. In this episode, SHAN Weijian, Chairman and CEO of PAG, joins Giuseppe Porcaro and Alicia García-Herrero from Hong Kong, to share his insights on how the private sector has progressed and the road ahead.

The recent forced landing of an internal EU flight to arrest opposition activist Roman Protasevich is the latest escalation by a President who is consolidating power in the wake of unrest following the disputed results of the 2020 presidential election. The EU and international community reacted with further retaliatory sanctions and a flight ban over and by Belarussian airlines. Where does EU external action go from here? This week, Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff is joined by Sławomir Dębski, Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), to discuss Belarus’ fractious relationship with its neighbours and put the events of the last year into the wider historical and European context.

The idea of a global corporate tax has been floating around for decades, but a US proposal for a 15% of a global minimum tax rate means the proposal is now a serious possibility. This would affect both direct and indirect taxation, broader tax policy issues, and tax administration.In this live episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel scholars Rebecca Christie and Niclas Poitiers, to discuss the outlook of global corporate tax and its possible outcomes.Relevant publication:Christie, R. (2021) ‘International tax debate moves from digital focus to global minimum,’ Bruegel Blog, 27 May

European strategic autonomy is probably the single most used watchword in European circles, if only because of lack of consensus about what it entails. US bashing for some, a more confident and independent EU for others, the concept has well and truly moved out of the security and defence area into every area of EU policy. This is most apparent in the debate around the international role of the euro, where institutional thinking has shifted fast in the past couple of years. Is it inevitable?In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff is joined by Franziska Brantner, Member of the Bundestag and Europe spokesperson for Alliance 90/The Greens’ parliamentary group, to talk about sovereignty, the international role of the euro and the geopolitical repercussions of the EU’s green deal.Relevant publications:Claeys, G. and G. Wolff (2020) ‘For the euro, there is no shortcut to becoming a dominant currency’, Bruegel Blog, 13 OctoberClaeys, G. and G.B. Wolff (2020) ‘Is the COVID-19 crisis an opportunity to boost the euro as a global currency?’ Policy Contribution 11/2020, BruegelOr maybe you’d like to watch our event with President of the European Council ‘From playing field to player: Europe’s strategic autonomy as our generation’s goal’ on the importance of Europe’s strategic autonomy

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! China’s growing economic power is causing great anxiety in the West: European regulators are tightening the rules on takeovers by Chinese state-owned giants, while the United States is imposing aggressive sanctions on leading Chinese technology firms such as Huawei, ByteDance (TikTok) and Tencent (WeChat). In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel’s Alicia García-Herrero, Mario Mariniello and Giuseppe Porcaro make the virtual trip to the enclave of Hong Kong, where they are joined by Angela Huyue Zhang, an expert on Chinese law and the author of “Chinese Antitrust Exceptionalism: How the Rise of China Challenges Global Regulation”. She draws on her experience of examining how Chinese exceptionalism, as manifested in the way China regulates and is regulated, is reshaping global antitrust regulation to impose extraterritoriality and counter western sanctions and influence.

IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath joins Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff for this Live recorded session. They were able to discuss the uneven recovery from the pandemic. In the latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF warns that even though the global economy is on firmer ground, recoveries are diverging dangerously across and within countries, as economies with slower vaccine rollout, more limited policy support, and more reliance on tourism do less well.Global prospects remain highly uncertain one year into the pandemic. The outlook depends not just on the outcome of the battle between the virus and vaccines—it also hinges on how effectively economic policies deployed under high uncertainty can limit lasting damage from this unprecedented crisis. Bruegel would like to thank the International Monetary Fund for co-hosting this recording. This podcast was recorded with a live audience on clubhouse. Follow The Sound of Economics club on Clubhouse for the latest and regular rooms and high level policy conversations on everything from geoeconomics to energy and climate change.

What is a central bank digital currency (CBDC)? How is it different from the money in a private bank account, or from cryptocurrencies? What do consumers stand to gain from CBDCs? Have cryptocurrencies enabled the creation of the technology needed to guarantee anonymity, privacy and security?To debunk the myths and get to the bottom of the hows and the whys of CBDCs, this week Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel Deputy Director Maria Demertzis and Senior Fellow Gregory Claeys who will tell us just how likely digital currency is to replace the money under our mattress. Relevant publications and event:Demertzis, M. (2021) ‘Central bank currencies going digital’Claeys, G. and M. Demertzis (2019) ‘The next generation of digital currencies: in search of stability’, Policy Contribution, European Parliament Disruption or transformation: the impact of a digital euro on the financial system with Guntram Wolff and Fabio PanettaSee more relevant Bruegel research on Digital Currencies.

Before the pandemic, Africa was experiencing unprecedented economic growth and poverty reduction. While many economies have faced disruption around the globe, emerging economies face an even tougher challenge because they lack the tools at the disposal of developed countries, whether that be vaccines, macroeconomic liquidity or the ability of the labour market to work from home. The global nature of the pandemic requires a global response. This January, Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff and Vera Songwe, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa were appointed by the Italian G20 Presidency to the High Level Independent Panel on financing the global commons for pandemic preparedness and response, tasked with identifying gaps in the financing system for the global commons for pandemic prevention, surveillance, preparedness and response; and proposing actionable solutions to meet these gaps on a systematic and sustainable basis.In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Vera shares her insight on how Africa has been handling the spread of COVID-19 and its economic implications. Together they discuss how to ensure necessary financing available to all, that can ensure that the world is better prepared for the next pandemic.

In a recent set of two Bruegel publications Giuseppe Porcaro, Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol, Enrico Bergamini and Francesco Papadia set out to understand exactly how europeanised public debate in national conversations actually is. With no quantitative indicators, they used a whole set of 'imperfect proxies' such as analysis of national newspapers to give them additional elements alongside the voters turnout, and existing eurobarometers surveys to understand just how strong citizens’ attachment to the European Union is.In this episode of The Sound of Economics LIVE, Giuseppe and Emmanuel are joined by two guests who with hands on experience in finding this 'European public sphere': Jaume Duch Guillot, the Spokesperson and Director General for Communication at the European Parliament, and Mick ter Reehorst, founder of 'Are We Europe', a pan-European publication that focuses on 'border-breaking' stories.Relevant publications:Bergamini, E. and E. Mourlon-Druol (2021) ‘Talking about Europe: exploring 70 years of news archives’, Working Paper 04/2021, BruegelPapadia, F., E. Bergamini, E. Mourlon-Druol and G. Porcaro (2021) ‘Interest in European matters: a glass three-quarters full?’ Working Paper 05/2021, Bruegel

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! A digital currency has been a heated discussion among central banks around the globe, and China is no exception. Where does Renminbi stand in the debate, what's next and what would be the implications of a digital yuan? Professor ZHU Min, Chair of the National Institute of Financial Research at Tsinghua University and former Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, shares his insight with Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff and Senior Fellow Alicia García-Herrero. Relevant event: Disruption or transformation: the impact of a digital euro on the financial system with Guntram Wolff and Fabio Panetta

Recent sanctions and counter-sanctions between the EU and China have put the future of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) in doubt. Where do the parties go from here? In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff is joined by Mikko Huotari, Executive Director of MERICS - Mercator Institute for China Studies, to talk about the future of the agreement, the geopolitics at play and the role of the United States.

This is a very special moment for space exploration. The beginning of April will see the maiden flight of the first helicopter to another planet. The Artemis accords will mean that man will be back on the moon before long. The European Space Agency is building Daedalus, the first robot that will crawl inside lunar caves. The United Arab Emirates and India have successfully entered Mars’ orbit on their first try. Elon Musk has just stated that he will land his starship there before 2030.We are in the midst of a new space race, this time not as a proxy of the Cold War of the 60s, but as a multiplication of the actors, both private as well as state actors across the globe enter the realm of space.This week, Giuseppe Porcaro host of The Sound of Economics (and self acclaimed 'space geek') and Reinhilde Veugelers, senior fellow at Bruegel, have the pleasure of hosting Michel Praet, Head of the European Space Agency (ESA)’s Brussels Office, Jérôme Béquignon and Eleni Paliouras, also from ESA’s EU Relations Office for this episode. They discuss the position of the European Space sector in this brave new world, what the consequences are for industrial and innovation policy, and also take a closer look at the institutional set up which should foster this innovation.A transcription is available for this episode. Disclaimer:Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all our podcasts are recorded remotely. We apologise in advance for the sound quality and thank you for your understanding.

Women are less financially literate than men. But does this gap reflect a lack of knowledge or a lack of confidence? To find out Maria Demertzis, deputy director of Bruegel is joined by Annamaria Lusardi, Professor of Economics and Accountancy at the George Washington University and non-resident fellow at Bruegel and Maarten van Rooij, senior economist at the Dutch Central Bank in The Sound of Economics.Annamaria and Maarten explain their findings in a recently published paper that about one-third of the financial literacy gender gap can be explained by women’s lower confidence levels.Relevant publication:Bucher-Koenen F., R. Alessie, A. Lusardi and M. Rooij (2021) ‘Fearless woman: financial literacy and stock market participation’.

Pandemic aside, the past year has seen renewed discussions in Europe on transparency and good governance as the EU takes an unprecedented role in health policy and procurement and in the creation of common debt. As part of an ongoing effort to capture a wide range of views from the European Parliament, this week in The Sound of Economics Guntram Wolff talks to Vice President of Renew Europe and MEP for Hungary, Katalin Cseh to discuss all things governance, human rights, and transparency of vaccine purchasing.

Maria Demertzis and Nicola Vegi join Giuseppe Porcaro to talk about their recent research on low interest rates, declining productivity growth and how to tackle this.In both Europe and the United States, interest rates have been declining for more than fifteen years. For much of this period, real interest rates have been negative and they are expected to remain negative for at least another decade. The literature associates this decline in interest rates with a similarly protracted decline in productivity. But the decline in productivity appears paradoxical given major technological advances.The structural factors behind the downward pressure on interest rates imply that macroeconomic policy will have a reduced role in managing aggregate demand. Monetary policy in the euro area will be more about preventing financial fragmentation and less about stimulating demand. Equally, fiscal policy will have more of a supporting rather than stimulating role.Tackling the structural decline in market dynamism and therefore in real rates will require structural policies to reduce market power globally and ensure the creation of capital markets in the EU.

This podcast episode is part of Bruegel’s macroeconomic outlook series of The Sound of Economics, in which we bring you regular analysis of all things macro and fiscal policy. This February, the European Commission published the Winter 2021 Economic Forecast with the estimation of a 3.7% increase in GDP in the EU in 2021. While this means a recovery from the pandemic, economic uncertainty still remains significant. On the other side of the globe, the Biden administration has announced a $1.9 trillion fiscal package. Would this result in inflation risks? How will this affect European economies? And, what fiscal intervention is needed in the euro area? Maria Demertzis, Deputy director of Bruegel, is joined by Elina Ribakova, Deputy Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance, Christian Odendahl, Chief economist at the Centre for European Reform and Grégory Claeys, senior fellow at Bruegel to discuss the Commission forecast, recent US fiscal package and their insights of the macroeconomics outlook in the EU and globally. Relevant publications: Demertzis, M. (2021) ‘A K-shaped recovery and the role of fiscal policy’ Claeys, G. and M. Demertzis (2021) ‘The productivity paradox: policy lessons from MICROPROD’, Policy Contribution 01/2021, Bruegel Demertzis, M., M. Domínguez-Jiménez and A. Lusardi (2020) ‘The financial fragility of European households in the time of COVID-19’, Policy Contribution 2020/15, Bruegel

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics.ZhōngHuá Mundus is a new newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!The middle-income trap describes a situation in which a country, having attained a certain income level, gets stuck there (due to given advantages). The high-income trap is of a similar nature, because although the positioning of these economies might be more advantageous to begin with, they find it difficult to promote innovation in manufacturing or upgrade to higher value-added services to remain competitive and provide benefits to a wider spectrum of society.In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro and Alicia García-Herrero are joined by Syaru Shirley Lin, Compton Visiting Professor in World Politics at the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. They discuss the middle/high-income trap in East Asia, and especially in China. Is the high-income trap different between East Asia and Western Europe, especially in terms of their economic relationship with China? How has COVID-19 changed the economic landscape?

Central bankers now seem keen to take on responsibility for policy objectives they have previously shied away from – in particular, tackling climate change. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde acknowledged in January that central bankers will have to look beyond their traditional duties to address the challenge. ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel said in September 2020 that central banks should be an active part of the collective effort to reduce carbon emissions. Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta said ECB analysis can help make climate-risk valuations more accurate.Should central banks continue accommodating corporate bonds and bank loans of high carbon companies as collateral, or should they reduce them? Giuseppe Porcaro, is joined by Rebecca Christie, Jean Pisani-Ferry and Dirk Schoenmaker to discuss the hot topic of the role of central banks in greening finance and possibly contribute to decarbonisation.The three guests of this episode recently published a series of blog posts which tackle the issue from complementary perspective:Christie, R. (2021) ‘US separates climate concerns from financial oversight in contrast to EU activism’, Bruegel Blog, 18 FebruaryPisani-Ferry, J. (2021) ‘Central banking’s brave new world’, 24 FebruarySchoenmaker, D. (2021) ‘A brown or a green European Central Bank?’ Bruegel Blog, 24 February

COVID-19 has caused unprecedented disruption to business. Since the first lockdowns, governments have used credit support programmes as the main instrument to mitigate the liquidity shock businesses have been facing. Have the programmes worked?Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff is joined by Bruegel's very own Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia and Nicolas Véron to talk about their research into credit support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies. They share their findings with us as well as possible policy implications.Related research:Anderson, J., F. Papadia and N. Véron (2021) ‘COVID-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies, Working Paper 03/2021, BruegelDataset, Loan guarantees and other national credit-support programmes in the wake of COVID-19 Anderson J., Papadia F. and Véron N. (2020) ‘Government-guaranteed bank lending six months on’, Bruegel Blog, 29 September

Across the Atlantic, EU member states have been discussing a recovery plan since last spring, striking an agreement over the summer to create a €750 billion pandemic recovery fund. Hard-pressed EU capitals must now submit detailed plans to Brussels to unlock their share of the cash and begin rebooting their economies. One such country is Italy, where an ambitious once in a generation plan is being drawn up to spend €200 billion to relaunch an anemic economy. The hope is that by pushing through unpalatable reforms together with funds underwritten by 27 member states, that an economy that has not grown in real terms for over two decades can be jump started. Bruegel has been tracking the national recovery plans that states have been submitting to Brussels to unlock funds, and plans to release an overview soon. Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel scholars Carlo Altomonte, Maria Demertzis and Zsolt Darvas to discuss economic stimulus and its implications. For more details, please check our dataset on national fiscal response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Bruegel will soon publish a new dataset on national recovery plans. Stay tuned!

The European Green Deal is a plan to decarbonise the EU economy by 2050, revolutionise the EU’s energy system, profoundly transform the economy and inspire efforts to combat climate change. But the plan will also have profound geopolitical repercussions and is likely to impact partner countries adversely. In the latest paper co-written by Bruegel and the European Council on Foreign Relations, the authors map out the geopolitical implications and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and lead climate change efforts globally. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, co-authors Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel introduce their paper and give their insight on this issue.Related content:Leonard, M., J.Pisani-Ferry, J. Shapiro, S. Tagliapietra and G. Wolff (2021) ‘The geopolitics of the European Green Deal’, Policy Contribution 04/2021, BruegelEvent, The geopolitics of the Green Deal

On 30 November 2020 after over 7 years of talks, the European Union and China concluded negotiations for a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI for short).The agreement is intended to increase investment between the EU and China by establishing a legal framework and common rules on issues ranging from state-owned enterprises to subsidy transparency and rules against the forced transfer of technologies. The deal replaces more than two dozen bilateral investment treaties between the EU’s 27 member states and China, improving market access for European companies operating — or intending to operate — in China and ensuring a level playing field and reciprocity when they do.Does the agreement actually live up to the above claims and seven years of expectation? To help us find out, in this episode of the Sound of Economics Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bert Hofman, the director of the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore and Bruegel’s China expert Alicia García-Herrero, for a in depth commentary and glance at what the detail of the deal means for Europe. Relevant publications:Demertzis, M. (2021) ‘An EU – China investment deal: a second look’ 19 JanuaryGarcía-Herrero, A. (2021) 'Europe’s disappointing investment deal with China' 4 January

One year since the pandemic began, widespread vaccination has finally started. It would be a mistake however to say the end is in sight. Senior fellows Uri Dadush and J. Scott Marcus join Bruegel director Guntram Wolff to talk COVID-19 vaccine strategy, from testing and production to procurement and inoculation.Relevant publications:Dadush, U. (2021) ‘A matter of life and death: governments must speed up vaccination’ Bruegel Blog, 13 JanuaryMarcus, J.S. (2021) ‘Has the European Union squandered its coronavirus vaccination opportunity?’ Bruegel Blog, 6 JanuaryDemertzis, M. (2020) ‘Are we out of the woods yet?’ 14 December

Poland is sometimes characterised as the black sheep of EU climate policy: in 2019, more than 70 percent of the country’s electricity was generated by coal. In the meantime, it is closing down coal mines and discussing building a nuclear power plant in order to diversify its energy supplies. What is Poland’s climate policy and how is it evolving? Is the idea of Poland’s characterisation as a scapegoat of the failure of international climate ambitions misleading?In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Bruegel's Guntram Wolff and Georg Zachmann are joined by Michał Kurtyka, the Minister of Climate and Environment of Poland and former President of the COP24 in Katowice, considered by many as a climate champion in the country. They discuss current climate policy in Poland, the social impact of decarbonisation, how the EU’s recovery package can help smooth the climate transition, and the future of international climate diplomacy.Research mentioned:Bergamini, E. and G. Zachmann (2020) ‘Understanding the European Union’s regional potential in low-carbon technologies’, Working Paper 07/2020, BruegelWolff, G. (2020) ‘Europe should promote a Climate Club after the US elections’

As the year draws to a close, Giuseppe Porcaro invites Maria Demertzis, André Sapir and Guntram Wolff to review this eventful year in economic policy and beyond. The guests also talk about a book that has marked them this year and finally, their hopes and wishes for the decade ahead.Events mentioned: Monetary policy after the pandemic, with Janet Yellen Together for Europe’s recovery and for a better, more sovereign Europe, with Olaf Scholz The green deal: Europe’s growth strategy, with Frans TimmermansBooks mentioned:Zuboff, S. (2019) The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power, PublicAffairs, New York.Carreyrou, J. (2018) Bad blood: Secrets and Liies in a Silicon Valley Startup, Knopf, New York.Aral, S. (2020) The Hype Machine: How Social Media Disrupts Our Elections, Our economy, And Our Health–And How We Must Adapt ,New York Currency, New York.Bratton, B. H. (2016) The Stack: On Software and Sovereignty ,MIT Press, Massachusetts.

In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Maria Demertzis, J. Scott Marcus, Georgios Petroupolos, and Mario Mariniello, Bruegel experts on digital policy to delve into the latest EU digital regulations: the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act. What is the Commission proposing? What connections do these two bills have, and what policy and market implication do they have?

In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Paola Subacchi, Professor of international economics and chair of the advisory board of the Global Policy Institute at Queen Mary University of London, and Bruegel senior scholars Alicia García-Herrero and Michael Leigh join Giuseppe Porcaro for an age old discussion but with a twist. They try to understand the geopolitical role of money, in other words, currencies and capital flows. While unconstrained capital flows cause afflictions of the global economy, the current debate on currencies is in fact driven by politics rather than economics, as Alicia argued in an opinion piece recently: Politics, not economics, demands a strengthened international role for the euro. What would the next US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen do on the dollar?

Climate transition is hotly debated in EU circles as it impacts all areas of policy: from the ambitious climate targets set by the President of the European Commission with the European Green Deal, to the discussions of the next budget of the Union and the recovery plan from the current pandemic.The topic is especially important for 2021 with a new US administration more likely to engage on climate change, a commitment for carbon neutrality in 40 years by China and the delayed COP26 under the leadership (or not) of the United Kingdom. Any European debate is certain to have an important impact on a regional and national level, but will also influence the global trajectory of climate policy.In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels, Piotr Arak, Director of the Polish Economic Institute from Warsaw and Simone Tagliapietra, research fellow at Bruegel (joining from Italy) for a conversation on the political economy of the climate transition as covering the European Green deal, the concept of “green industrial policy”, and distributional challenges of decarbonisation.

The economy of the euro area is forecast to contract by 8.7% in 2020 but grow by 6.1% in 2021. The drop in GDP in 2009, the worst year of the financial crisis, was just over 5%. There is no doubt that the drop we face today is much more significant, although it is expected to be short-lived with a sharp bounce back. However, all EU countries are currently going through a second COVID-19 wave exponentially worse than the first in terms of number of infections, albeit with fewer deaths (so far). Who knows what the real hit to the economy will be, and indeed how long it will be before we can resume normality?In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis, and Nicola Viegi, Professor of Monetary Economics at the University of Pretoria, who is based in South Africa. They will explore the theme of uncertainty, highlighted by the pandemic, and how to plan policy interventions, especially monetary policy, in this climate of uncertainty.Maria Demertzis and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez, Bruegel research analyst have recently published a paper for the European Parliament on the topic, looking at the challenges faced by the European Central Bank: ‘Monetary policy in the time of COVID-19, or how uncertainty is here to stay’: https://www.bruegel.org/2020/11/monetary-policy-in-the-time-of-covid-19-or-how-uncertainty-is-here-to-stay/

On November 15 2020, the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), creating the world’s largest free-trade bloc in terms of gross domestic product. Bruegel fellows from around the world - Uri Dadush, based in Washington DC; Alicia Garcia-Herrero based in Hong Kong and Suman Bery based in India, bring their knowledge and geopolitical expertise to a heated discussion on this deal, hosted by director Guntram Wolff. What is the RCEP really about? Who will benefit? Why did India withdraw from negotiations on the deal? What implications will it have for Europe and the United States? And more importantly, what should they do?

Following Biden's victory in the US presidential election, what will the transatlantic relationship look like? Would it be a big relief, or nothing much will change? And will we see a shift from ‘America first’ to ‘buy American’? This week Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by Esther de Lange MEP, Vice Chair of the European People's Party Group, to talk us through what this all means for Europe, and more importantly for its place in the world. What next for European strategic autonomy? How will this affect climate policies? How can EU level the playing field while not getting squeezed by the US and China?With Mrs de Lange’s experience within the Delegation for relations with the People's Republic of China, we also discuss that, as the US is trying to decouple economically with China, what would be the right strategy for Europe?

Taxation is one of the few areas of financial policy which the general public has great interest in, as it affects their everyday life directly. But when we talk about it on a European level, it has much to do with tax distortion and competition in the single market.In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by Sven Giegold MEP from the European Green Party. Giegold envisions a European common tax space, where minimum tax rates will be applied on a European level. They also discuss tax reporting regulations for large corporations, VAT reform, and how the Commission, European Financial Intelligence Unit and potentially a European financial police force can target money laundering and financial crime.

Born and bred in the United States, Bruegel scholars Rebecca Christie and J. Scott Marcus are joined by director Guntram Wolff, on a special edition of The Sound of Economics, to talk about the upcoming US election, the implications it will have for American and European Economic policies, as well as the impact on future transatlantic relations.Rebecca and Scott will walk us through the most crucial domestic topics, from voter suppression to shrinking republican demographic, from the covid-19 pandemic to US healthcare system. On international issues, they look at the approaches the two administrations will likely take on climate, trade, data privacy, as well as financial regulations. While a Biden presidency might be the hope to reinitiate sensible discussions and restore alliance and partnerships, a Trump administration will very much likely continue its path on isolationism.Find out more from Bruegel scholars for the upcoming US election:The future of EU-US trade relations after the US electionWhat should Europe expect from American trade policy after the election? Trump’s International Economic Legacy

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, we invite Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan to talk about their most recent book: 'The Great Demographic Reversal’. They argue that trends in demography and globalisation, especially the stunning rise of China combining both, have greatly weakened labour bargaining power and led to subsequent disinflation, inequality and falling interest rates. But just as these demographic and globalisation trends are now reversing, labour bargaining power will rise again, bringing with it more inflation, less inequality and rising interest rates. The coronavirus pandemic will only accelerate this reversal.Bruegel scholars Maria Demertzis and Guntram Wolff join the authors for a conversation on ageing societies, waning inequality, as well as an inflation revival.

On 15-16 October the European Council will take stock of the implementation of the withdrawal agreement and review the state of the negotiations on the future EU-UK partnership. Leaders will discuss preparatory work for all scenarios after 1 January 2021. The timetable is very tight, with October seen as the last deadline for reaching an agreement that could then be ratified in time for entry into force by the end of the current transition period. In this live recording session of The Sound of Economics, Bruegel’s scholars took a step back and provided the background, as well as outline the key issues at stake necessary to follow the discussions at the Council and understand the ongoing negotiations. We also engaged in an informed debate with the audience on the post-Brexit scenarios. The podcast host, Giuseppe Porcaro, was joined by Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Guntram Wolff. To read more about Bruegel's research on Brexit, please check: https://www.bruegel.org/tag/brexit/.

The European Union recovery fund could greatly increase the stability of the bloc and its monetary union. But the fund needs clearer objectives, sustainable growth criteria and close monitoring so that spending achieves its goals and is free of corruption. In finalising the fund, the EU should take the time to design a strong governance mechanism. In this episode, Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, is joined by MEP Luis Garicano, vice president of Renew Europe, who is also an economist and was heavily involved in the discussion on Next Generation EU, the new recovery instrument that the EU proposed for the Recovery and Resilience Facility. On this topic, they discuss the key concerns on how to ensure EU-borrowed money will be well-spent by the member states. MEP Garicano shares his insights from the Parliament of where this debate currently stands. Read the Opinion of Guntram wolff on the topic: https://www.bruegel.org/2020/09/without-good-governance-the-eu-borrowing-mechanism-to-boost-the-recovery-could-fail/

In this episode, we propose a full lecture about the future of globalisation by Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy, at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, of Harvard University. Rodrik argues that the model of hyper globalization we have been pursuing is unsustainable and that we have an opportunity to embark on a sounder, healthier globalisation. And he outlines his views on what such a globalisation might look like.The Lecture took place during the Bruegel Annual Meetings and it was followed by a lively discussion between Dani Rodrik and André Sapir, who is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel, which we have recorded and included in this podcast.

As we move away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy solutions, the complexity of the global energy system has increased. With his new book published by Cambridge University Press, Global Energy Fundamentals, Simone Tagliapietra cuts through this complexity with a multidisciplinary perspective of the system, which encompasses economics, geopolitics, and basic technology. In this episode of The Sound of Economics Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, discusses with the author the current status and future prospects of the global energy system.

On 16 September 2020 Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, delivered her first State of the Union address before the European Parliament. In addition to looking back at the past year, she presented the priorities for the year ahead, focusing on initiatives such as the European Green Deal and the Digital Strategy. A conversation between: Giuseppe Porcaro, Head of Outreach and Governance, Bruegel Alicia García-Herrero, Senior Fellow, Bruegel André Sapir, Senior Fellow Guntram B. Wolff, Director

This is part of a special feature of the Sound of Economics reporting highlights from Bruegel Annual Meetings, which happened between 1 and 3 September 2020. Usually physically gathering hundreds of people in Brussels every year, the Annual Meetings are the flagship event of Bruegel. This year, due to the pandemic, we held the event entirely online. For this episode of the Sound of Economics we report the full speech delivered on 3 September by the Minister of Finance of Germany, Olaf Scholz, touching upon the key issues Europe is facing for its economic recovery and its own sovereignty in a complex global setting. After the speech you will be able to follow as well a lively conversation Between the Minister, Guntram Wolff, director of Bruegel, and Maria Demertzis. more information about Bruegel Annual Meetings on www.bam.bruegel.org

This is the last episode of the summer feature of the Sound of Economics recorded as part of the Reopening Europe project. Between the 12th and the 27th of June, we traveled over 2700 kilometres through the Netherlands, Germany, France, Austria, Slovenia and Italy to collect voices from the ground during the weeks when the borders were reopening after the COVID-19 spring lockdown. Since the start of summer, the pandemic has continued to ravage the globe, and in Europe we are currently seeing a resurgence of infections. The next few months continue to be uncertain in terms of medical and economic consequences. Given this context, the Reopening Europe project assumes additional layers: documenting the seemingly ephemeral moment of the summer reopenings, and reflecting about the hopes and wishes of Europeans at a unique moment. That is why, in this concluding episode of this feature, we reflect about the future. Not as an escapist wishful thinking, but as an attempt to start re-imagining a society, an economy and politics cohabiting with the virus and eventually overcoming it. For this reflection Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel’s senior scholar Alicia Garcia Herrero and Rutger Sjögrim, the architect that built the space ship featured in the movie Aniara (2018), and member of the Secretary studio in Stockholm.

On the fourth episode of this summer series of The Sound of Economics, recorded on the road as part of the Reopening Europe project, we talk with Antje von Dewitz, CEO of the outdoor equipment company- Vaude. We met her on June 17th in Tettnang, near Lake Konstanz, on the German/Swiss border, where her family company is located. The Reopening Europe team was the first external visitor’s group to be admitted at the company headquarters after lockdown. Antje told Giuseppe about the effect of COVID-19 on her company, on retailers and consumer behaviour, and she told us of her vision for a post-pandemic economy which should work for the common good.

The OECD has estimated that COVID-19 will cause a 60% decline in international tourism in 2020. This could rise to 80% if recovery is delayed until December. During their trip, the Reopening Europe team noticed the direct impact of the lockdown on cities such as Strasbourg or Salzburg, which were practically devoid of the usual tourist crowds. In this latest installment of our summer series on Reopening Europe's trip across Europe at a unique moment, Giuseppe is in conversation with Ivo Tarantino, Head of Public Affairs & Media Relations at Altroconsumo, the largest independent and non-party political consumers’ organisation in Italy.They hear contributions from-Leone, a Gondolier in Venice; Nives Monda, restaurant owner in the historic centre of Naples; Emilio Casalini, journalist and writer; Elvio De Monte, architect in Venice; Jeannette Neumann, Bloomberg correspondent in Madrid.

In June 2020, as Europe reopened after lockdown, we crossed ten national borders. We listened to diverse citizens, from passers-by to politicians, business people to artists, recording, documenting, and publishing stories. In this second episode of Reopening Europe, we unpack some reflections about borders and the pandemic which we have collected along our journey. Giuseppe Porcaro is joined in by Martina Tazzioli, Lecturer in Politics and Technology at Goldsmith University, London. Her work is characterised by an interdisciplinary approach to political theory, migration and border studies and political geography. Recently, she has investigated the technologisation of the borders and how technologies constitute a battlefield for migrants, states and non-state actors.They hear contributions from- Felies Zomerplaag, a high school student in Meerssen, a few kilometres from the Belgian/Dutch Border; Djuna Bernard, Member of the Luxembourgish Parliament; Stephan Halbach, the CEO and owner of Klenke, a printing workshop in Dortmund, Germany; Klemen Miklavič, mayor of Nova Gorica, on the Slovene/Italian border; Jean Baptiste Couzin, the head of cross-border cooperation, in the Grand-est Region; Michael Leigh, senior fellow Bruegel; Ugo Rossi, Associate professor of Economic and Political Geography, Gran Sasso Science Institute; Jeannette Neumann, Bloomberg correspondent, Madrid