The Rules of Investing

The past few years have been kind to investors. A glance over 2024 asset class returns suggests that most Australian investors have been sitting on healthy gains for the past 12 months, with the much-loved banks leading the charge. Global equity exposure will have sweetened returns, with the S&P 500 clocking up consecutive years of +20%. Even conservative investors have been rewarded with returns on cash, which is the best we've seen in decades. It's in our nature to resist making changes to a winning formula. However, with market leadership being highly concentrated and, for the most part, coming from high-growth stocks, there's a decent chance that your portfolio has developed a few biases and overweight positions. Why does this matter? Markets have repeatedly reminded us that good times don't last. Reviewing your portfolio and making tweaks or rebalances is prudent. This ensures you harvest some of those gains and position your portfolio for all market conditions. Livewire's James Marlay spoke with Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth and Ben Clark from TMS Private Wealth to explore the factors they think matter for 2025, discuss how they are allocating capital for the year ahead, and to get some professional tips on rebalancing your portfolio. Putting theory into practice, he also revealed his SMSF portfolio and asked our guests to share the changes they would make. To see the charts and tables referenced in the podcast are on this link: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-invest-1-million-in-2025 ------------------------------ This year's Outlook Series sponsor is Commsec, Australia’s leading online broker. With over 25 years of industry leading service and experience, CommSec offers Australia’s best online and mobile trading solutions. Begin your investment journey - commsec.com.au

If you’re feeling upbeat about markets as we head into 2025, you’re not alone. 41% of investors that participated in Livewire’s Outlook Series Survey said they are feeling optimistic about markets right now, well ahead of the following most popular response with 30% of survey participants saying they are feeling anxious. The responses are not surprising, given the decisive run in equity markets in recent years. The S&P 500 is on the cusp of racking up consecutive years of 20%+ returns. A feat only achieved four times since 1926. The other instances occurred in 1927-1928 before the great depression, in 1942-1943 during World War II, from 1995-1999 there were unprecedented gains with five 20%+ years and more recently in 2017-2018. Investors are likely feeling optimistic given the strong returns on offer, whilst it is natural that anxiety is growing and a recognition that the good times won’t last forever. Unfortunately, history provides little solace for those investors looking to the past in the hope that it might give some clues as to what 2025 might hold. The returns in the years following the four historical precedents are ambiguous, with a 50/50 split between negative and positive returns. However, the drawdown years were smaller than when markets continued to rally. So, how does this information help us, and what should investors think about as we head into 2025? To answer this question, we drew on the expertise of top-rated financial adviser Paul Burgon, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner at Lipman Burgon and Partners. Paul has decades of experience allocating capital on behalf of his clients and was ranked #6 in 2024 on Barron’s list of top financial advisers. Even with his experience, Paul acknowledges that predicting the future is fraught with danger and a recipe for disappointment. However, over his career, he has developed a set of ten principles that he believes can underwrite investment success. These principles draw on the renowned endowment model of investing developed by David Swenson and are now widely adopted by many leading investment institutions, including Australia’s Future Fund. Yale’s endowment fund returns under Swenson are compelling, having delivered annual returns of 14% over 35 years. Summarising the underlying objective of Burgon’s philosophy is relatively simple. He is seeking to remove or dampen the influence of emotions on investment decisions. In 2024, access to extensive research, institutional-grade investment models and improved access to private markets make it possible to achieve more consistent returns, reducing the prospect of poor decision-making at times of peak emotion. While few of us will be seeking to replicate the allocation of global endowment funds, I’m sure most of us would like to bank the healthy returns of recent years and dampen the impact of any impending market dislocations. “If you can have more reliability of outcomes in your equity allocation and more consistency of returns that is a much better way to allocate capital than trying to chase the next high-performing manager.” In the final episode of The Rules of Investing, we hope to leave you with valuable asset allocation and portfolio construction insights from one of Australia’s top financial advisers. And while we’d all love to see another 20% + year from the S&P 500, it makes sense to ensure your portfolio can withstand the chance that 2025 could be a down year. Better to be safe than sorry!

The Australian property market is incredibly nuanced. Markets like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth are soaring by double digits while the markets of Sydney and Melbourne have started to cool considerably. But even if prices in the largest housing markets are mellowing, it does not take away the core and indisputable argument: Housing may never have been affordable but now, the crisis is worse than ever. Andrew Schwartz, Co-Founder, CIO, and Managing Director at alternative real estate investment manager Qualitas, doesn't see this structural situation changing any time soon. When he is asked to reflect on the last 12 months in the property market, he effectively described 2024 as one of the less memorable periods of recent years. "I think it'll go down as one of the less exciting years that we're going to think about when we reflect on the years that have gone by," Schwartz reflects. "As we're approaching the end of 2024, it's quite clear that markets are starting to slow down and a lot of that momentum is coming out of the market." But he does see next year becoming far more "interesting", "fascinating", and even a "thriller" for investors in this asset class. "I think it's getting very exciting in 2025. There are many reasons why I feel that but in particular, residential property is affected by supply and demand and interest rates. When you look at each of those individual factors, you do see a market where Australia is caught short on the supply side at the moment and it's been very hard to get supply into the market. We have quite significant demand coming in and we have had a sustained period of relatively high interest rates," Schwartz says. Schwartz's comments here on this asset class really matter. Qualitas, the company he co-founded, has nearly $9 billion in funds under management today, mainly from overseas and domestic institutional investors who want to access the lucky country's most famous asset. An asset that, Schwartz argues, is a better store of value than stocks, crypto, and even gold. On this week's edition of The Rules of Investing, Schwartz is sitting down with guest presenter Hans Lee to discuss his views on these key tailwinds, his take on the macro environment, and where he sees growth opportunities in the Australian property market today. (APPLE PODCASTS) (SPOTIFY) (PODBEAN) other key insights you can expect Forget stocks, crypto, and gold: Residential property may be the best store of value out there "I actually think that residential property is one of the best stores of value you can consider ... that is my personal opinion." "A beautiful store of value is buying land and you know we are going to be more and more densified over time. Personally, I find it hard to move away [from property] but that is how I think about residential property as a store of value." It's not about whether house prices rise, it's just about whether house prices will fall "One of the key measures for us is around the margin the developer is earning on the project. I don't think about the margin as a developer making money per se. I think about margin as safety for error. How much could we afford for prices to wind back?" Is the answer to unlocking housing supply just to "drop rates to zero"? "There is no doubt that if you want to stimulate the next round of the housing market, it's about dropping interest rates. The cost of capital is such a big factor in delivering projects." "However, the problem with dropping interest rates to that level is that one of the measures the RBA is very focussed on is the wealth effect of housing. The more people's houses are worth, the more they feel wealthy, and the more they go out and consume." How much will it cost for Australia to build 240,000 homes a year? "Construction costs have risen some 40% over the last three years in Australia. As a generalisation, housing prices and apartment prices, in particular, have not gone up by 40%." "Groups like ours see a lot very large volume of project feasibility where developers would like to get their projects financed."

Koda Capital is one of Australia's elite wealth management firms, charged with allocating over $11.5 billion of capital on behalf of high-net-worth individuals, family offices, and charitable foundations. For the past decade, Brigette Leckie has played a pivotal role in shaping the firm's views on where the best opportunities lie across global asset markets. Leckie firmly believes that understanding the macro environment is the starting point for building an investment strategy. And while it's not every day that investors like you and me get to pick the brains of an asset allocator with Brigette's experience. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, you'll get a front-row seat and learn how Brigette makes sense of the dynamics in global economies and what that means for investors. With a new regime set to take office in the world's largest economy and Australia's largest trading partner, China, amid a generational economic transition, the macro environment requires careful consideration for investors. Around the world with Brigette Leckie Fresh off the back of visits to Europe and the United States, Brigette made these observations. Europe: Better than the headlines and muddling through 'muddle through' Traffic is everywhere (yes, worse than Sydney) A change in attitudes towards experiences over spending on goods persists. Restaurants and streets are buzzing, and with the exception of Germany, economies will continue to muddle along Manufacturing in Germany remains sluggish United States: The gap is widening Inflation is real. Flights are at capacity, it's hard to get an Uber, and the streets are buzzing in many cities. The gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening. Politics remains highly divisive for families and corporations. "I did see divisiveness in a couple of things I did see on the corporate side. So, for example, getting into a car and asking the driver what his views on the election were, and he said, "Company policy is we don't talk about the election or politics." So that surprised me," said Leckie. China: Three significant issues to deal with Leckie says that China has been letting market forces deal with three major issues in its economy, and she expects these will take some time to resolve. Deflation: This remains an issue caused by excess capacity in the economy. Weak consumer: Consumer sentiment is fragile, creating a downward deflation spiral. Excesses of the property market: This is a well-documented issue that will take time to work through. Historically, China's policy has been boom or bust. Leckie believes that a mindset shift has taken place, and the old approach is being replaced by genuine reform. The goal is to gradually turn China into a more consumer-based economy. A stronger China is good for global economies, especially Australia; however, we should not expect the boom days of the past to return. So does macro matter? Leckie emphatically believes that understanding macroeconomics is the foundation of good investment strategy and asset allocation. She cites the example of interest rates near zero or negative as a point in time when the macroeconomics was 'out of whack' and providing a clear signal. Developed market bonds were 'uninvestable' in her eyes—a call that has been vindicated in recent years. Currency markets can also provide a signal. Most of the time, currencies trade in a narrow range, but there are times when they get to extremes. For example, the Australian dollar was worth less than US50 cents, and equally, it traded at parity. For globally diversified portfolios, these extreme moments matter. Three points for asset allocation right now Leckie says returns in recent years have been exceptional, and investors should be mindful not to extrapolate these into the future. Knowing what risk you will tolerate is easy to underestimate when markets are ripping higher. Leckie had these key messages for investors. Hold your conviction on big calls. If you have a strong foundation for your positions, you need to be willing to ride out short-term noise. Investors are too bullish on risk assets and should be cautious about expecting these returns to continue Diversification will be crucial over the period ahead. Investors must ensure their portfolios are properly diversified with uncorrelated investments.

For those who love equities, you’re in for a treat with the latest Rules of Investing podcast. This week's episode features First Sentier Investors’ Deputy Head of Australian Equities Growth, David Wilson. Wilson's bread and butter is picking high-quality growth companies - a role he executes every day as part of the team that runs the First Sentier Geared Australian Share Fund. He is not afraid to explain how he goes about doing this while acknowledging his missteps and sharing a handful of stocks he likes right now. When it comes to his process for picking stocks, Wilson says it’s all “pretty logical”. “We just try to invest in good businesses with management that are trying to do the right thing for you and with the right sort of balance sheet. It's pretty straightforward. You can overcomplicate these things, but generally, that's our approach”, says Wilson. Wilson adds that the team watches company management very closely: “What they're trying to achieve, what their goals are, but also at their actions, particularly when they make an acquisition or divestment - that's a point where you get a real insight into how a company is thinking," says Wilson. Wilson points to Car Group (ASX: CAR) as a company with a solid acquisition history. The company is a recent addition to the portfolio, though Wilson acknowledges that he was a bit late to the party. Another stock he particularly likes right now is pallet-maker and logistics company Brambles (ASX: BXB), saying that “the new management team has brought in a real pricing discipline over the last five years”, which has allowed them to cement a dominant position as a global leader. In the following episode, Wilson also discusses the Fund's current overweights in tech and healthcare and names one stock from each sector that stands out (one of which is also the stock he would own if the market closed for five years). In terms of what Wilson doesn’t like right now, he talks about the shrinking position of consumer staples and explains why they haven’t been “quite so staple” over the past year. He also talks to sector underweights in energy, financials and materials – despite being overweight BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO). For good measure, he also shares his thoughts on Rio’s takeover of Arcadium Lithium. Finally, in explaining how valuations matter, Wilson shares why he is underweight Cochlear (ASX: COH), despite it being a great business. Listen to the podcast to learn what keeps Wilson motivated after 40 years in markets, how he sees the current market conditions, and learn a little more about his process for picking stocks. For good measure, he'll even share with you which financial metric is a waste of time! Note: This interview was recorded on Tuesday22 October 2024.

In a world where artificial intelligence dominates headlines, few fund managers have harnessed it as boldly as Armina Rosenberg. For those who don't know her, "Arms" made a name for herself at Grok Ventures, the family office of Mike Cannon-Brookes. Now, she's paving a new path at AI-backed Minotaur Capital, alongside Perpetual alumnus Thomas Rice. The duo have developed Taurient, a software system that uses large language models for everything from idea generation to portfolio construction. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Arms outlines how you can use AI to level up your own investment strategy, as well as a few stock ideas to get you started. Note: This interview was recorded on Wednesday 9 October 2024. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 2:13 - Lessons learnt from managing the wealth of Australia's mega-rich 7:32 - Family involvement in investment in family offices 8:56 - Differences between how retail investors and mega-wealthy invest 10:01 - What makes Minotaur Capital different from its peers 13:23 - How Arms and Thomas met 15:26 - How Minotaur's AI system Taurient works 25:21 - Mix of fundamental investing and AI 26:30 - Can AI help to know when to sell a stock? 27:37 - Can investors develop an AI-backed system themselves? 29:04 - How investors can use ChatGPT to make smarter investing decisions 31:21 - The future of funds management in an AI world 34:32 - Where the team sees opportunity today i.e. exciting themes 37:13 - Energy companies making waves on the global stage 39:10 - AI winners - why Minotaur is backing smaller players over the behemoths 39:55 - Healthcare ideas - and an emerging oral GLP-1 winner in Japan 41:25 - Why Japan is a "once in a generation opportunity" 42:53 - An example of a company Minotaur is shorting 45:18 - What the market is getting wrong today - private credit 47:36 - Stories of wins and losses and lessons from these 51:51 - Two stocks for the next five years (if the market were to close in that time Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Today, we’ll be bringing all the insights from Livewire Live together with the help of one of Australia's leading financial advisers and one of the country's top wealth managers. Livewire’s James Marlay sat down with Alexandre Ventelon of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and Charlie Viola of Pitcher Partners to answer our audience’s questions about asset allocation and give investors some tangible ideas on how to apply the lessons and insights from a full day of sessions covering multiple asset classes, themes and ideas. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you’re after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We’ll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it’s built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you’re a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Today, you’ll be learning about the good, the bad and the ugly of equities markets - with the help of: Dr David Allen, Head of Long/Short Strategies, Plato Investment Management Ben Griffiths, Executive Chairman, Eley Griffiths Group James Hawkins, Partner & Head of the Catalyst Fund, L1 Capital Dushko Bajic, Head of Australian Equities Growth, First Sentier Investors This panel is hosted by Centennial Asset Management’s Matthew Kidman. They explore the stocks they are bullish on today, the themes they believe are likely to suffer, and the stocks they recommend investors avoid (or short, if they can) over the months ahead. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you’re after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We’ll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it’s built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you’re a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Many of the best investing opportunities emerge when you think differently from the herd. This session will feature five high energy predictions that will challenge consensus thinking as inves­tors look towards 2025 and beyond. You’ll be hearing from five of Australia’s leading investment minds, including: Kellie Wood, Head of Fixed Income at Schroders Vihari Ross, Portfolio Manager at Antipodes, Bob Desmond, Co-Portfolio Manager and Head of Claremont Global Josh Clark, Lead Portfolio Manager at QVG Capital Matthew Kidman, Chief Investment Officer at Centennial Asset Management. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you’re after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We’ll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it’s built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you’re a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this session you’ll be hearing a fireside chat with Todd Barlow the CEO of Soul Patts, Australia’s oldest listed company. Soul Patts is a diversified investment house often described as Australia’s answer to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. The company has established an incredible record of dividend payments to shareholders and today you’ll be getting an asset allocation masterclass from Todd and hearing about the opportunities he sees in the market today. This session was moderated by James Unger, Head of Corporate Finance and Bell Potter Securities. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you’re after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We’ll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it’s built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you’re a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Artificial Intelligence is surely the hottest topic right now powering returns in stock markets and capturing our attention with its promise of productivity and innovation. But with such spectacular interest and returns I’m sure many investors are wondering if the opportunity has passed. Our next panel will be picking the eyes out of the AI opportunity. How big is it and where are we in the cycle for this industry? Who will be the winners? And who will get crushed? The panel features: Nick Griffin, Founding Partner & Chief Investment Officer, Munro Partners Jun Bei Liu, Lead Portfolio Manager, Tribeca Investment Partners Jacob Mitchell, Chief Investment Officer & Lead Portfolio Manager, Antipodes This session was moderated by Livewire’s Deputy Managing Editor Ally Selby. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you’re after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We’ll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it’s built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you’re a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this episode, you’ll be hearing a panel exploring a number of big topics dominating conversations around markets right now. From the changing macro backdrop and debate over the merits of public vs private markets to the implications of ageing populations, the energy transition and digital innovation these are Seismic Shifts and we’re going to hear about the opportunities they present for investors. The speakers in this session are: Matthew Haup, Lead Portfolio Manager at Wilson Asset Management Srdjan Dangubic, Partner at Five V Capital James Abela, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Andrew Lockhart, Managing Partner at Metrics Credit Partners You moderator is Livewire’s managing editor Chris Conway This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you’re after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We’ll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it’s built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you’re a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

In this episode, you’ll hear from Scott Kleinman, the co-president of Apollo Global Management, as he sits down with Livewire’s James Marlay. Kleinman shares his views on why he believes markets are getting ahead of themselves with rate cut expectations, where he sees value across various sectors, and how Apollo is positioning to take advantage of mega trends such as digital transformation, the energy transition, and ageing populations. This episode is part of our special mini-series of The Rules of Investing, giving you a front-row seat to discussions from Livewire Live 2024, our flagship investor event. Whether you’re after big-picture market insights or actionable investment strategies, this series offers exclusive insights to help shape your investment decisions. We hope you enjoy this special 7-part series. We’ll return to our regular programming with the next episode of The Rules of Investing. ________________ This series is proudly sponsored by Bell Direct Advantage. Bell Direct Advantage is a premium trading platform designed for active and sophisticated investors. Offering access to Bell Potter research, exclusive IPOs, and advanced trading tools, it’s built to give you a competitive edge. Whether you’re a frequent trader or a high-net-worth individual trading shares, options, or warrants, Bell Direct Advantage delivers tailored solutions and superior service to sharpen your investing edge. [Find out more here]

Behavioural economics explains why we make such stupid decisions with our money. Unfortunately, the study has found that behavioural biases are very hard to control and, even if you are aware of them, no one is immune from poor decision-making when it comes to both life and our finances. This is where quantitative or systematic investing comes in - a realm of investing typically reserved for institutional investors like super funds and the ultra-wealthy. Quantitative investing removes emotion and behavioural biases from investing. Instead, it relies on some of the smartest people in the world to put together hundreds to thousands of signals and data points for a large language model to make decisions. Humans are involved but just for oversight, in case the model does not truly understand a situation. For example, it may not understand that airlines were not a fantastic short-term opportunity amid a significant sell-off during the COVID-19 crash. This is a far cry from fundamental investing, which relies on a fund manager or investor analysing macroeconomic and stock-specific factors, meeting with management teams, trying out products and services and reviewing a business's balance sheet before making an investment decision of their own. The gains from quantitative strategies are typically small, but they're consistent over time. You are not going to have years of 10-20% plus outperformance over an index, but equally, you shouldn't experience huge drawdowns either. And over the long term, this small amount of alpha adds up. Interestingly, Macquarie Asset Management was one of the few firms that saw its funds achieve 100 batting averages - for both the large-cap and small-cap categories - over a 10-year period. This means that these funds, which are all quantitative strategies*, have outperformed the benchmark 100% of the time in every three-year rolling period over the past decade. So, to learn more about quantitative investing, quantitative ETFs and the major trends shaping ETF markets, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Blair Hannon, ETF Strategist at Macquarie Asset Management. We discuss some common misconceptions surrounding quantitative investing, the signals that have worked over the last few years, and the magic of compounding over the long term. Plus, Hannon also shares why he strongly believes that passive investing is not creating a bubble in markets - despite what some of the world's most famous investors (like The Big Short's Michael Burry) would have you think. Note: This interview was recorded on Tuesday 24 September 2024. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:54 - Difference between fundamental and quantitative investing 5:28 - Removing the emotion from investing 6:55 - Signals that are used to avoid behavioural biases 8:56 - Do we need human touch on quant funds 10:31 - Common misconceptions of quant investing 14:44 - The signal that has been working over the last year 18:20 - Turnover of stocks in the portfolio 20:10 - The signal that has worked over the long term 21:32 - Why 1% alpha is attractive over the long term 24:38 - Macquarie's batting average scores over 10 and 5 years 27:37 - Why ETF popularity will continue to soar 29:57 - Why active fund managers need to innovate on ETFs 32:50 - Innovation in the US - and what we can expect in Australia 35:08 - Why ETFs aren't the death of managed funds 37:10 - Why passive investment isn't creating a bubble in markets 39:07 - Something that worries Blair about the direction of ETF markets 41:21 - One ETF to hold for the next 5 years if markets were to close Disclaimer: Product Disclosure Statements and Target Market Determinations for Macquarie ETFs can be found at etf.macquarie.com and should be read before making a decision to invest. *The Macquarie Australian Shares Fund, Macquarie Australian Equities Fund and the Macquarie Australian Small Companies Fund’s investment strategies changed effective 18 December 2017. Until 17 December 2017, the strategies were managed with a fundamental approach. From 18 December 2017, the strategies were restructured such that they are managed with a quantitative, systematic investment approach.

While Warren Buffett's favourite holding time may be forever, the average holding period for a typical investor is now just 5.5 months. In a world where news, analysis and investment ideas are readily available at our fingertips, investors have quickly forgotten the benefits of long-term compounding and instead are focused on the next great stock, driven likely by their fear of missing out. We've all succumbed to it, there's no point denying it. How many of us jumped on the buy-now-pay-later trend, the lithium trend, the uranium trend, and now, the AI trend, as stocks soared to stratospheric heights? How many of us have attempted to hold on for dear life (HODL) as some of these companies crashed back to Earth? So, how can you identify the companies that continue to win over the long term? And by long term, I don't mean five-plus years, but 20. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Janus Henderson's Josh Cummings outlines what makes a winning long-term stock - a process that has helped the team top the league tables for their consistent outperformance over the last five and 10 years - and provides a few examples.We also take a deep dive into artificial intelligence - and why Cummings believes AI will become even larger, more pervasive, and more impactful on our lives than we could ever conceive of today. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-secret-to-finding-stocks-you-can-hold-for-20-years Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 2:16 - The secret to consistent long-term outperformance 3:30 - What the team got right and wrong over the last 12 months 4:38 - The impact of AI on mega-cap tech companies 7:19 - Is there too much "faith" in the AI theme? 9:48 - Is this the death of value investing? 11:58 - What it's like on the ground in the US right now 15:14 - Impact of cumulative inflation on businesses 18:13 - Nvidia's antitrust charges 20:42 - Factors that can help investors identify consistent winners 22:58 - Celebrity CEOs and red flags 25:20 - Should you really HODL? 26:58 - Smaller companies employing disruptive innovation 31:13 - Lessons from the team's meeting with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 33:49 - Innovation is a scale game - why the big are only going to get bigger 35:01 - What could go wrong with AI (i.e. are we in for an iRobot scenario) 40:22 - Two things investors are getting wrong today 42:36 - Why you should invest in what you know (and trust your gut) 46:45 - One stock Josh Cummings would own if the market closed for 5 years

Nowadays, it’s quite easy to get swept up in the negativity around our economic plight. Living costs are a very real concern, as are increasingly unaffordable house prices. But, as Australians, we’re also quite fortunate. Our economy has enjoyed an unprecedented run of growth, we’re highly educated, we’re resource-rich, and we have opportunities – one of which lies in energy creation. As Darren Brown, Co-Managing Director, Renewables Australia at Octopus Investments tells it, there is “a really unique opportunity for Australia to become a superpower in renewable energy”. The conversation highlights the transformative changes in the energy sector, the strategic initiatives underway, and the opportunities for investors in the renewable energy market in Australia. Brown's unique perspective, gained from his experience in both fossil fuels and renewables, provides valuable insights into the industry's evolution and the potential for long-term growth in the renewable energy space. Note: This episode was recorded on 29 August 2024.

In 1990, then-Treasurer Paul Keating famously said that the country's economic downturn was the “recession that Australia had to have.” Although Keating was responding to a poor GDP print and doing his best to control the narrative, at the start of the rate hiking cycle in mid-2022 most in the market spoke of an impending recession with almost as much certainty. As it stands today, said recession is yet to materialise. So, what happened? And perhaps more importantly, what does it mean for investors? In explaining why a recession hasn’t occurred, Sebastian Mullins, Head of Multi-Asset, Australia at Schroders points out that both the Australian and US governments pumped money into their respective economies—something we hadn't seen in a long time. “During the GFC, you had targeted programs to bail out banks and stimulate the economy, but on average, you had a very, very loose monetary policy and very tight fiscal policy to preserve balance sheets – i.e. improve the fundamentals of both corporate and government balance sheets”, says Mullins. “This time around, it's the reverse. We're hiking rates but the government's stimulating aggressively. So that has offset quite a bit of it”, says Mullins. Regarding America, where most of the recession indicators have been flashing red, Mullins adds that the US went into the current downturn un-levered – at least compared to previous episodes. “If you think about what the pillars of the economy are, you have the consumer, you have corporates, and you have the government”, notes Mullins. The US consumer de-levered after the GFC, reducing their amount of debt to GDP, as did corporations. “You'd expect higher interest rates to crack corporates”, says Mullins, but that hasn’t happened. And while the government has been hurt by higher rates due to the bigger interest payments on its debt pile, “If the two pillars of the private economy are fine and the corporates are all fine, then there's no recession”, says Mullins. Great, no recession. What about inflation? For Mullins, the inflation conversation depends on how far into the future you look. “So in the short term, inflation's definitely coming down,” says Mullins. As for the next five years and beyond, Mullins believes there are structural forces that will mean inflation could stay above the long-term targets of central banks – although that doesn’t have to be a bad thing. “There are more inflationary forces in the system now than they were over the past decade” notes Mullins, adding that “things like fiscal stimulus that's here to stay”. “You're seeing more populous governments come in around the world. You're talking about the election in the US, they're both going to spend. "It doesn't matter who wins, it just depends on who they spend on. But there's no tea party candidate or fiscal conservative”, says Mullins. Mullins points to other inflationary factors, including de-globalisation, on-shoring, and increased security spending—whether that means military, food, mineral, or cybersecurity. “So all that is to say, we're not saying we're going to 1970-style inflation, but if in the US 2% was the ceiling of inflation for the past decade, we think it's going to become a floor. So, it might be between two to three, maybe two to four [percent]”, says Mullins. So, how are you investing? A potentially higher floor for longer-term inflation seems like a small price to pay following the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in living memory. If someone offered the current economic and investing scenario back in late 2022 and early 2023 – with equity markets near all-time highs, bonds providing a decent yield, and an absence of recession – we’d all likely take it in a heartbeat. So, as a multi-asset strategist, how is Mullins shaping portfolios in light of macro developments and a seemingly benign backdrop? Find out in this edition of The Rules of Investing, presented by James Marlay. Mullins provides a view on Australian, US, Chinese and Japanese equities, bonds, and Australian vs. US credit. Finally, he outlines the bull case moving forward as well as the biggest risk to the outlook. Note: This episode was recorded on 27 August 2024. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/what-happened-to-that-recession-we-were-promised

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's Ally Selby learns about some of the companies that meet these criteria, why Rizzo believes AI will be far more transformative than investors currently think, as well as why he believes that investors are likely to do more harm waiting for a correction in some of these tech winners than a correction itself. Plus, he shares what he is seeing on the ground in the US right now in terms of economic weakness, the stocks he believes are worth paying up for right now, and how he takes advantage of sell-offs when he holds very little cash. Note: This episode of The Rules of Investing was recorded on Wednesday 14 August 2024. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-ai-will-have-a-bigger-impact-on-the-world-than-the-invention-of-electricity Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 2:10 - Making sense of the volatility in tech stocks 3:11 - This is a healthy bull market correction 4:44 - The true transformational nature of AI 8:11 - Spotting the imposters from the real AI winners 11:06 - There are risks but we are starting to see business acceleration from AI 13:27 - Should you take advantage of sell-offs in AI companies? 15:08 - What Dom is seeing on the ground in the US in terms of economic stability 17:08 - How to identify winning tech stocks 19:53 - How Dom thinks about risk 22:01 - Dom's wishlist of stocks he would own at a cheaper price 24:15 - Stocks it is worth paying up for right now 26:32 - A deep dive into semiconductor stocks and cycles 30:20 - NVIDIA at the point of deceleration and what this means for investors 31:16 - How to take advantage of sell-offs with very little cash 34:19 - One thing investors are getting wrong about markets 34:53 - Biggest lessons Dom has learnt during his career 39:06 - One stock Dom would hold if the market closed for 5 years.

Much has been made of the “Great Rotation” of late and the move away from highly concentrated large caps into small-cap equities, particularly in the US. Greg Dean, founder of Langdon Equity Partners, is having none of it. When quizzed about whether the rotation was impacting how Dean and his team invest, the short answer was ‘no’. Late last year, amid widespread commentary about 2024 being the ‘year for small caps’, Langdon wrote about the time and energy people spend talking about timing in small caps and called it a “big waste of time”. Dean feels a similar way about the rotation. “The reality is if you wait for the perfect time, you've probably missed out on a lot of opportunity during that period when fewer people were interested”, says Dean. Dean founded Langdon in 2021 on the concept of a “clean sheet of paper” – i.e. not being beholden to anyone but investors. His philosophy is built on deep research and holding management to account, allowing him to ‘trust but verify’. He adds that speaking with management is a delicate balance that is often “executed poorly”. “You think you have to be aggressive and definitive or you have to be a “yes” person and agree with everything that they're telling you, and neither of those is optimal”, says Dean. In the following episode of The Rules of Investing, Dean delves deeper into small-cap investing, explains why he and his team take more than 300 individual company meetings each year, talks through the current portfolio tilt, and shares why the fund favours Europe over the US. He also upacks two global small-cap stock ideas that highlight Langdon’s approach. Note: This episode was recorded on 31 July 2024. You can watch the video or listen to the podcast below. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-trying-to-time-small-caps-is-a-big-waste-of-time-and-2-long-term-stock-ideas Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:36 - Investment background and founding Langdon 5:05 - Biggest influences over the journey and why small caps? 8:39 - Investment philosophy origin story 11:01 - When is enough, enough? 12:45 - The Great Rotation and current market conditions 15:31 - Company meetings how the best stand out 20:09 - Honing the craft 23:42 - Current portfolio: underweight US, overweight Europe 26:58 - Why cashflow is Landon's North Star 28:07 - Other non-negotiables 29:12 - Testing beliefs 30:40 - Navigating patience as a small-cap investor 32:57 - Small-cap stock ideas 37:52 - What are investors getting wrong about today's markets? 49:27 - Courage of conviction 41:29 - The five-year stock

In tennis, just as in investing, it's the points that you win that matter. After all, Roger Federer played 1,526 singles matches throughout his career, and while he only won 54% of the individual points within those matches, he walked away with the win 80% of the time. Ausbil Investment Management's fresh-faced co-head of emerging companies, and portfolio manager for its small and micro-cap strategies, Arden Jennings, is focusing on just that. "Stocks are just points. But it's the points that matter that win you the game. So for us, our largest detractor was still smaller than our 17th biggest winner. Even though we had an even spread of winners and losers, it was the ones that were successful that made it a good year," he says. And a good year it was. The Ausbil MicroCap Fund returned 33.53% in FY24, while its Australian Small Cap Fund delivered investors a nice 25.73%. Since inception, these funds have returned 20.08% (since February 2010) and 24.17% (since April 2020), respectively. So, where is the Roger Federer of Australian small caps seeing the most opportunity today? You'll find out in this episode of The Rules of Investing. Note: This episode was recorded on 30 July 2024. You can watch the video or listen to the podcast below. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/where-the-roger-federer-of-australian-small-caps-sees-the-most-opportunity-today Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 2:36 - Decisions that lead to outperformance in FY24 5:04 - Roger Federer's streak and lessons for investing 6:13 - Interest rate expectations 7:00 - Why the small-cap rebound can continue and the Great Rotation in Australia 8:03 - The stocks that will benefit - HUB24 (ASX: HUB), Zip Co (ASX: Z1P), Credit Corp (ASX: CCP) 9:24 - Wildcards that could impact investors' portfolios 11:41 - What to expect this reporting season 12:29 - Why investors should be wary of crowded trades 13:24 - A stock to watch this reporting season: Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB) 14:15 - One thing the market is getting wrong right now 16:24 - A story of a big win or loss from Arden's investing journey 17:27 - Stories from childhood - investing at 10 years old 18:01 - One stock to hold if the market were to close for the next 5 years... you'll have to listen to the interview for that one!

There's no supply in residential housing nor the majority of segments of the commercial real estate market. Sky-high construction costs are now too prohibitive. Bandaid solutions, like rent control, only backfire. And inconsistent state, federal and local policies are not helping either. That's according to this week's guest on The Rules of Investing, Andrew Parsons, a founder and the chief investment officer of global listed real estate manager Resolution Capital. While these factors continue to perpetuate Australia's housing problem, they are actually positive for long-term investors in real estate. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Parsons dives into Australia's property problem, outlines what he believes to be the solution, and shares why listed property is in for a strong three to five years ahead of us. Note: This episode of the Rules of Investing was recorded on Wednesday 17 July 2024. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/30-year-property-veteran-australia-has-its-head-in-the-sand-on-housing Timecodes 0:00 – Introduction 2:06 – A fascinating, under-appreciated part of the market 3:45 – What is a REIT? 5:30 – The key distinctions between REITs and physical property assets 8:45 – Which do you prefer: an investment property or listed property assets? 9:50 – Where REITs sit alongside equities and fixed income 10:55 – What you’re really paying for when you buy real estate 12:50 – Why property development is so difficult currently 13:40 – Australia’s troubling property supply shortfall 15:04 – “We don’t want urban sprawl” 16:30 – How do you solve Australia’s big property problem? 20:50 – The effect of interest rates on listed property, versus equities and bonds 23:40 – How Resolution Capital is currently positioned 33:50 – What is your best investment of all time? 38:08 – Resolution Capital’s five-year pick

Investors are too focused on interest rates and are subsequently underweight risk assets. That’s the, albeit US-centric, view from Global X ETFs’ Head of Investment Strategy, Scott Helfstein. He elaborates by saying that the US economy is looking a lot more like mid-cycle expansion than late cycle and that “you don’t want to be sitting on the sidelines”. A fan of thematic investing, Helfstein goes on to highlight three big investment themes that he likes right now, including one offering the opportunity for true transformation, that’s available for the same price as the S&P 500. Don’t miss the latest Rules of Investing Podcast. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-compelling-long-term-etf-ideas-for-investors-still-on-the-sidelines Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 1:12 - A unique background for an investment professional 7:17 - The current state of geopolitics 12:00 - Australia's position in the global landscape 14:10 - The appeal of thematic investing 16:42 - Where is the puck going? 22:53 - Sectors versus themes 26:48 - The role of thematic investing in a portfolio 28:46 - Nothing but ETFs? 30:27 - Ranking the big themes 34:22 - A theme that is flying under the radar 36:40 - Risks in thematic investing 38:32 - Mama's favourite son 39:49 - What are investors getting wrong? 41:07 - One theme for the next five years

Fully franked dividends are a prized asset of the Australian market. While the lack of growth is often lamented, plenty of self-funded retirees are content to dine on the distributions of Australia's big miners and banks. And who can blame them - high commodity prices, particularly in iron ore and lithium, resulted in record dividends from the top end of town. However, after peaking in 2021 and 2022, dividends from mining companies are steadily declining. Research from Commsec published late in 2023 showed that the 12-month forward dividend yield for the ASX200 has been below the long-run average of 4.7%, and dividend per share estimates have been cut by 14 per cent. The good news is that Australian banks have been increasing their dividends whilst also enjoying surging share prices. There is also a long list of consistent dividend paying stocks that often fly under the radar. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Livewire's James Marlay speaks with Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson to get his diagnosis on the case of the 'disappearing dividends'. Hamson insists that diversification remains a free lunch for investors, especially for those seeking stable and consistent returns. He also emphasizes that fully franked dividends continue to stack up as the backbone of an income-generating portfolio. Timecodes: 0:00 - Introduction 1:43 - The outlook for dividends 8:27 - Dividends versus Fixed Income 10:25 - Dwindling dividends 13:08 - The dividend outlook for mining shares 17:00 - Tactics to combat declining dividends 20:07 - Australian banks - stable but expensive 22:10 - The case for diversification 25:15 - Winning by avoiding the losers 28:09 - What returns are realistic for Plato? 31:26 - A lesson from Medibank Private 34:10 - Don’t focus on the US election 36:23 - The stock most likely to be a 5-year resident in the Plato Australian Shares Income Fund

This time last year, PIMCO Portfolio Manager Adam Bowe told Livewire that there was a 50/50 chance that Australia would slip into recession. March GDP figures show that the economy grew at just 0.1 per cent, the slowest rate since December 2020. Today, Bowe says interest rates are sufficiently restrictive, and the chance of recession remains a ‘line ball’. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Bowe explains why interest rates in Australia don't need to go higher, why house prices have been immune to interest rate increases and where he is finding the best income opportunities right now.

While "survival of the fittest" certainly applies to the Earth's abundance of flora and fauna, it may be time for investors to take a page out of Darwin's book. That's according to FNArena's Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, who believes the market has irreversibly changed since 2014 - as has the way investors should value stocks. In this episode, Rudi outlines why he believes technological innovation will transform the market as we know it. He also discusses some of his favourite ASX-listed stocks to play the AI theme, the importance of quality companies in today's markets, and what it takes for a company to be an all-weather stock. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 29 May 2024. Note #2: Ally was today years old when she learnt what R.E.M. is, she apologises for any harm her ignorance may have caused hardcore fans. If it's any excuse, the song was released seven years before she was born. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/rudi-ai-is-the-end-of-investing-as-we-know-it

There seems to be no stopping Australia's ultra-wealthy, with the number of billionaires down under growing by 14.4% over the past 12 months, to a record 159 people. For some context, in 2020, this number was 117, according to The Australian. While it's wonderful to daydream about what you would buy or do with a few billion dollars, the true secret success of the ultra-wealthy is their ability to stay that way. After all, how many stories have you read of lottery winners squandering their newfound wealth just a few short years later? So, how do the other half continue to grow their wealth? To find out, Livewire sat down with MRB House's Peter Magee and Walsh Capital's Louise Walsh for their insights into how Australia's ultra-wealthy invest as part of Livewire's Undiscovered Funds Series. They share their tips and tricks for identifying "exceptional" funds, outline the factors that are important to their processes, share what to do when a fund isn't performing as expected, and name one recently launched fund that has impressed in recent years. Note: This interview was recorded on Wednesday 15 May 2024. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-investment-secrets-of-australia-s-billionaires

In investing, just as in love, trust is everything - and without it, you really don't have anything at all. It's for this reason that the Wilson Asset Management global equities team meets with more than 700 management teams across the world each year - including in the US, Japan, and Europe. In addition, they also meet with competitors and suppliers, as well as talk to current and past employees and industry experts. According to WAM Global (ASX: WGB) lead portfolio manager Catriona Burns, the team does this because trust in a company's management team is paramount. "Have they hit their targets? Have they done what they said? If we have any doubts on that trust factor, for us, that's completely a non-negotiable and we won't invest," she says. Burns is reading between the lines, and looking beneath the surface for red flags. And while management teams selling stock, poor track records and value-destructive deals can certainly be warning signs, she argues that alignment - and the lack thereof - can often be far more telling for the future direction of a company's share price. "Incentives drive outcomes... I can't tell you how many times I have seen incentives for management based on earnings per share growth," she says. "Companies just chase acquisitions to meet earnings growth without thinking about the returns that are being generated on the dollars spent. That happens time and time again and is a massive red flag." In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Burns takes listeners through some of the companies that have managed to pass her filters, as well as why catalysts are so important for investors with a penchant for value. She also outlines why the listed investment company's growing annual yields won't be slowing over the next five years, what it's actually like on the ground in the US right now, as well as what the US election at the end of the year could mean for markets. Note: This interview was recorded on Tuesday 14 May 2024. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/700-meetings-each-year-how-wam-global-uncovers-under-the-radar-stocks 0:00 - Intro 1:21 - What it is actually like on the ground in the US 2:14 - Catriona Burns' outlook on rates and inflation 3:26 - The WAM Global (ASX: WGB) investment process (and the importance of trust) 8:09 - Alignment is everything + why CTS Eventim (ETR: EVD) is a good example 9:35 - Artificial intelligence and where Catriona is invested here 13:38 - On not owning NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) 14:41 - Why she's overweight financials and healthcare 16:47 - Picks + shovels approach versus drug developers in healthcare 18:18 - Stock with major catalysts on the horizon: CTS Eventim (ETR: EVD) and Quanta Services (NYSE: PWR) 20:01 - Why catalysts are so important 21:27 - The sustainability of WAM Global's yields + franking credits 22:46 - How to think about performance 24:33 - Why Catriona is bullish on the outlook for global small and mid caps 25:42 - One thing investors are getting wrong about today's markets 26:51 - US politics + what a Trump win would mean for markets 29:10 - A story of a loss from Catriona's career and what she has learnt from this 31:19 - One stock that Catriona would buy and hold if the market were to close for the next five years: Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE)

Time flies when you’re having fun! While the last five years have had plenty of ups and downs, they haven’t dented the enthusiasm and passion of small-cap fund manager Chris Stott from 1851 Capital. Stott launched 1851 Capital in 2020, just before COVID-19 hit, wreaking havoc on the market and his portfolio. Since then, Stott has comfortably beaten his small-cap benchmark, growing the fund’s initial capital of $80 million to almost $500 million through a combination of inflows and capital growth. Whilst there was some exuberance after the initial shock of the pandemic, the past few years have been far more challenging for small-caps investors. “Over the past four and half years, the small-cap index has returned 3% per annum. If you look at the 30 years before we launched the fund, it was 10% per annum. So quite a significant underperformance, quite dismal in fact,” Stott says. However, late October 2023 marked a turning point and the small-cap index has recently entered a technical bull market, having rallied more than 20%. So where to from here and which companies does Stott believe can sustain the early track record that 1851 Capital has established? In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Stott shares his lessons from starting a new fund, why he believes the bull run in small caps can continue and five of the stocks he is backing to deliver market-beating returns. For those of you with a good memory, Stott was last on the podcast in June 2020, when he tipped NextDC (ASX: NXT) as the one stock he would hold if markets were to close for the next five years. Shares in NextDC have gained more than 75% over that time, and the company is now in the ASX100, forcing Stott to exit his position. Naturally, we’ve asked him for a fresh idea. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 8 May 2024. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/chris-stott-s-5-high-conviction-stock-ideas-for-the-new-bull-market

The past six months have been golden for investors, with everything from equities to gold and even Bitcoin enjoying stellar runs. And if risk assets are not your bag, then there have been juicy yields on offer across a range of cash and fixed-income asset classes. Animal spirits woke from their slumber in late October 2023 when the Fed effectively claimed victory in the fight against inflation. Markets have been led to believe that rate cuts are a forgone conclusion in the year ahead, and participants have been piling into risk assets accordingly. Christopher Joye, portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Coolabah Capital Investments, says that markets have become so complacent that they appear to be completely ignoring a growing set of data suggesting that the path forward might not be smooth. Most notably, the resurgent inflation data coming out of the US is causing interest rate cut expectations to be dialled back and kicked down the road. When asked what he thought investors were getting wrong about markets today, Joye was quick to call the dichotomy between what the economy is suggesting needs to happen with interest rates and market expectations. “If this strong data keeps coming through then hold onto your hats because the world is not priced for this risk. Make no mistake, there is no margin for error in listed equities. There is no margin for error in venture capital, private equity, zero in crypto, in commercial real estate, nothing,” Joye argued. Tune in to the latest episode of the Rules of Investing, where Livewire’s James Marlay ask Joye about his views on the outlook for both the US and Australian economies, the three risks he is watching and where he sees value in Australian residential real estate.

Quality growth stocks, those with fortress balance sheets, impressive moats, structural tailwinds and top-notch management teams, have had a stellar run recently. Take Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) for example, which has risen 66% over the past year. Or Megaport (ASX: MP1), up over 252% in 12 months alone. If you're like this anonymous writer, you've probably started to ponder whether it's time to trim some of your winning positions and take some profits. And according to TMS Capital's Ben Clark, we may have just reached that point. "A lot of investors are trying to chase a very small number of stocks in Australia because of the AI trade," he says. "And I'd just be a bit wary about that because although those companies absolutely should benefit, it's just how quickly those benefits flow through and whether the market has just got a bit ahead of itself in terms of the benefits that will come through in the medium term." In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Clark sits down with Livewire's Ally Selby for a conversation on all things artificial intelligence, growth investing and holy grail stocks. He shares where he is putting some of the firm's dry powder to work, a few reasons why investors should feel optimistic about the outlook for markets, and whether he would be buying the AI behemoths both globally and locally today despite their stellar runs over the last six months. Plus, Clark shares why the tables may be turning once again for out-of-love growth darling CSL (ASX: CSL). Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday 9 April 2024. Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 1:54 - Ben Clark's outlook for the remainder of 2024 4:17 - Record cash holdings in the US and what this means for markets 6:51 - Why Aussie investors are also holding a lot of cash 7:39 - The most common question Ben Clark is hearing from clients 10:01 - The takeaways from Ben's trip to SXSW in the US 12:13 - Learnings from a private meeting with a Google executive 15:11 - The outlook for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) 16:25 - Can the momentum continue for global AI winners like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) 19:17 - The ASX-listed stocks that directly benefit from AI 23:17 - Why some of these stocks' share prices may have gotten ahead of themselves 24:30 - Holy grail stocks - and why Brickworks (ASX: BKW), WiseTech (ASX: WTC), REA Group (ASX: REA) and CSL (ASX: CSL) make the cut 29:32 - Where Ben Clark has started to take profits 31:28 - And where he is putting that cash to work 36:11 - One thing the market is getting wrong today 38:03 - Lessons for growth investors from the 2022 bear market 42:59 - A stock to buy and hold for the next five years

If there is any one investment product that has experienced a true boom over the last 10 years, it is exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded products (ETPs) more broadly. The number of listed products has increased by 17.5 times in Australia during the last decade alone. More than 300 products are now listed across the ASX and CBOE exchanges and two million Australians have at least one ETF in their portfolio. And, as if you need more proof of the growth of ETPs, 2024 marked the first time that inflows outpaced those going into unlisted managed funds. So if we've seen this growth over the last decade, what could the next 10 years hold? In this episode of The Rules of Investing, we put this and other questions to Tamara Haban-Beer Stats, Director and ETF/Index Investments Specialist at BlackRock Australia. BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager and its ETF arm iShares runs 49 ETPs in the Australian market. In this episode, Tamara also discusses the key mega forces that BlackRock believes could drive markets over the long run, where they are overweight in portfolios and the asset classes they believe could see the biggest growth within ETPs over the coming years. Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday 19 March 2024. Timestamps 0:00 - Intro 2:21 - BlackRock's outlook for the next 12 months 4:06 - What the new investing regime means for ETF investors 6:17 - The five "mega forces" of investing 9:13 - Currency impacts on ETF returns 10:27 - Will the Australian Dollar rebound in late 2024? 13:45 - Should investors consider hedged ETFs? 14:55 - Opportunities in Japan and the US 16:47 - Why the AI boom won't be early 2000 all over again 18:02 - The explosion of interest and uptake in ETFs 21:31 - The asset class that could gain the lion's share of growth in the future 23:17 - Other interesting innovations in the global ETF market 25:06 - Which products are seeing the most inflows and outflows in 2024? 27:31 - The Rules of Investing's regular questions (with an ETF twist)

Warryn Robertson, portfolio manager and analyst at Lazard Asset management, understands the nuances of infrastructure assets like few others in the market. His approach is to find monopoly assets with inflation protected revenues, high margins and reasonable leverage then buy them at attractive prices. Of the 400 listed infrastructure stocks globally only 160 have passed the four filters and typically Lazard’s Global Listed Infrastructure Fund will own just 25 to 30 of those companies. Given the attractive nature of infrastructure assets it is unsurprising that sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms are also circling these assets. Robertson estimates that of the 160 stocks that meet his criteria 25 have been taken private and delisted. The situation in Australia is even more challenging, of the 14 infrastructure and utility stocks on the ASX valued at more than $1 billion just four meet Warren’s criteria as being ‘preferred infrastructure’. The good news is that Robertson is a firm believer and concentrating your capital into your best ideas. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Warryn Robertson reviews the recent performance of that asset class through an inflationary environment, explains why US utilities look vulnerable and shares what he believes are the best opportunities in infrastructure. Robertson also reveals what he regards as the top infrastructure stock on the ASX and an infrastructure company with an absolutely stunning earnings outlook.

"Living Legend", "One of a kind", and "Diamond in the Rough are not terms usually bandied about when describing economists! But these are just a few of the hundreds of messages of support and appreciation that flooded a recent social media post recognising the 40-year tenure Dr Shane Oliver to AMP. Shane has dedicated his years to educating Australians on all matters of the economy. His style tends to be glass half full, and you'll rarely hear him pushing doomsday forecasts. He also possesses an uncanny ability to make complex matters easy to understand and is usually armed with some cracking charts to drive home his points. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Shane explains why central banks are close to pulling off Mission Impossible and avoiding recession. He believes interest rates have peaked and will drift lower as inflation returns to the RBA's target range. The episode also touches on a range of issues, including population growth, housing affordability and Australia's exposure to the Chinese economy.

If you’re looking for the future blue chips of the ASX then Washington H Soul Pattinson might be worth a closer look. The company has been around for more than a century, has never missed a dividend payment but, for the most part, has flown under investor radars. That is starting to change following the tie up with Milton Corporation in 2021, which has helped to propel Soul Patts’s market cap over $12 bn and into the S&P/ASX 50. Soul Patts now sits alongside popular names including Mineral Resources, Car Group, ASX Ltd and Ramsay Healthcare. Blue chip stocks are known to be large, reliable, profitable and consistent dividend payers. Soul Patts ticks most of these boxes with the exception of size perhaps. The merger with Milton brought an experienced investment team led by CEO and CIO Brendan O’Dea, 30,000 new shareholders and a $3.7bn large cap portfolio. O’Dea is now the Chief Investment Officer at Soul Patts and says the merger gives Soul Patts the platform required to build the next generation of investments that will sustain Soul Patts enviable track record of shareholder returns. “There’s a real desire on our part to seed the strategic assets of the future and a lot of that is going to come out of that private portfolio.” In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Brendan O’Dea takes Livewire’s James Marlay on a tour of the Soul Patts investment portfolio covering their large cap, emerging and strategic equity portfolios. O’Dea also shares Soul Patts’ unique approach to capital allocation, the asset classes commanding their attention and why you should expect to see more big strategic investments in the years ahead.

The structural forces that saw growth investing rise to the top after the GFC remain. Covid created a blip, but the world is returning to slow growth, low inflation and lower interest rates. That's the perspective of Jason Orthman, the Deputy Chief Investment Officer of Brisbane-based Hyperion Asset Management. Orthman says that neither you, me, nor our grandchildren are likely to experience an environment like 2022, where rapid interest rate hikes rocked long-duration assets such as government bonds and growth equities. "2022 was an incredibly unusual period. We've looked at markets over the last 250 years, and you haven't seen interest rates at the long end move quickly to that level over 250 years of data. We believe it's a one-in-250-year event," says Orthman. Structural forces, including ageing populations and the rise of automation, will continue to create a disinflationary and low-growth world in the decades to come. This backdrop means that those rare companies that can grow at rates well ahead of GDP can provide investors with exceptional returns. Orthman and the Hyperion team have a disciplined approach to finding these rare gems, starting with twelve structural growth trends, such as productivity, the shift towards artificial intelligence (AI), and banking and payments. These parts of the economy are likely to grow and present fertile ground for finding future blue-chip companies. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Ortham speaks with Livewire's James Marlay about Hyperion's approach to growth investing, the wild ride of 2022 and the long-term opportunities the firm has identified. Orthman also shares what he describes as 'one of the most important investments' the firm has ever made, what investors are missing about the Tesla story and two companies he believes are poised for significant revenue growth over the next decade.

Each year, Barron's releases a list of Australia's Top 100 Financial Advisers. Pitcher Partners' Charlie Viola and Lipman and Burgon Partners' Paul Burgon have featured high on this list over the years, and both ranked in the top 10 in 2023. As part of Livewire's Outlook Series for 2024, Livewire's James Marlay hosted an in-depth panel discussion exploring how these two investing gurus are allocating capital on behalf of their clients in 2024. Whilst there is no 'one size fits all' when it comes to investing, there are nuggets of insight from this session that can help all investors. Click here to access the charts discussed in this episode and a summary of the discussion Timecodes 0:00 - Introducing the experts 0:49 - Charlie Viola’s top three factors influencing asset allocation in 2024 3:20 - Paul Burgon’s top three factors influencing asset allocation in 2024 6:15 - Asset classes where Paul and Charlie are overweight or underweight 9:53 - Why Private Markets will play a bigger role in portfolios in 2024 and beyond 12:40 - Charlie Viola’s Asset Allocation framework for 2024 16:33 - Paul’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation frameworks for 2024 22:26 - How these advisers are innovating in 2024 25:50 - Four investing traps to avoid in 2024

Two years ago, on a trip to Perth, Yarra Capita’s Dion Hershan was pitched the case for lithium stocks by his Uber driver. Hershan says it was a cliche moment and a classic example of a ‘ringing the bell’ sign. On the flip side, there are moments when deciding to invest causes your stomach to churn and your hands to quiver. “Some of the best ideas I’ve had in my career were when my stomach churned and my hands trembled when I put the trade on. That’s often a good lead indicator.” Recent investments in fallen angel ResMed (ASX: RMD) and an overweight position in the beaten down REITs sector are two examples Hershan provides of how Yarra is taking long-term counter-consensus thinking. This counter-consensus thinking also applies to the companies Hershan and his team are cautious about, which include large parts of the ASX20, including resources and banks. Hershan says that while these companies may not fall out of the top 20, their best days are likely behind them. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Hershan talks about the lessons from working inside the most successful global hedge fund, why he is cautious about the outlook for blue chips and the companies he thinks represent the best long-term opportunities for the slow grind that lies ahead. Timestamps 0:00 - Introduction 3:06 - How Dion caught the investing bug 4:40 - Lessons from working at Citadel 8:35 - Why macro matters for Australian equity investors 11:08 - The raging debate taking place at Yarra Capital 14:30 - How much pain will consumers feel in 2024 17:29 - Why you should be complacent about blue chip stocks 22:05 - The best opportunities Yarra is finding on the ASX 24:57 - A fallen angel that Yarra thinks can rebound 26:52 - The thesis for being overweight REITs 36:00 - What investors are getting wrong in markets today 37:15 - Lessons from an early win 38:32 - Two stocks Dion would be happy to back if the market shut for 5 years Related Articles https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/five-themes-on-our-shopping-list https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/avoiding-the-blue-chips-heading-for-small-cap-status

The penny has dropped and thanks to a three-letter word from the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision ("any"), small caps both in the US and in Australia have started to rocket out of a long slumber. For most of the last 18 months, small cap performance at an index level has been smashed thanks to the soaring cost of capital. But now that markets have called central banks' bluff, we're entering what Ben Griffiths of Eley Griffiths Group calls a "pause rally" - the kind of rally that has a lot of cash looking for a new home. "I'm not for a second suggesting that the lunatics are out of the asylum but there has been some stability and sentiment is such that you can sketch out a constructive path for equities. There's a buoyant time ahead for us," Griffiths said. Another worthwhile indicator of the return of risk is the IPO market - and as Griffiths knows all too well, the phone calls have dried up considerably. And while the phone is not ringing off the hook yet, he does see some signs that listing activity is itching for a rebound. "There were a number of IPOs that were slated for transacting and listing before Christmas that have now been pushed into March. These will be extra well sought after in March - or certainly pre-June 2024," he said. In this, our second last episode of The Rules of Investing for 2023, James Marlay sits down with Griffiths for an extended conversation about the smaller end of the market. Hear about some of the companies that stood out from the recent AGM season, how Griffiths is investing in light of a "higher for longer" rate environment, and why he's dipping his toes into a well-known company that fell from darling to dog. Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - Three macro signals Ben pays attention to - and what these are saying about the markets 4:45 - Is risk back and is the "pause rally" underway? 8:44 - Was October 30th 2023 the day the market declared the war on inflation over? 10:16 - What are you hearing about the appetite for more ASX IPOs? 14:00 - What are the drivers of the divergence between large cap and small cap performance - and when will it turn? 18:00 - The ASX companies which stood out from the November AGM season - Breville Group (ASX: BRG), Boral (ASX: BLD), Ridley Corporation (ASX: RIC) 19:16 - Portfolio construction and stock picks for a "higher for longer" interest rate environment - Monadelphous (ASX: MND), ARB Corporation (ASX: ARB), Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM), Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD), Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) 21:53 - Stocks where margins may have not bottomed out yet - Auckland International Airport (ASX: AIA) and Worley (ASX: WOR) 22:20 - Portfolio construction for the new Eley Griffiths Group mid-cap fund: Audinate (ASX: AD8), Temple and Webster (ASX: TPW), Codan (ASX: CDA) 23:06 - A closer look at Boral and the impact of new CEO Vik Bansal 26:05 - A closer look at one unloved area of the market: REITs 27:52 - Consumer finance stocks have been the subject of investor "angst": Judo Bank (ASX: JDO), Latitude Financial (ASX: LFS), Pepper Money (ASX: PPM), Liberty Financial (ASX: LFG) 29:12 - What would it take for you to turn more positive on these smashed sectors? 31:48 - Why Eley Griffiths Group is launching a new mid-cap fund now 34:34 - Some of the mid-cap fund's early core holdings: CAR Group (ASX: CAR), GQG Partners (ASX: GQG), Genesis Minerals, Boral, Auckland International Airport, Worley 35:37 - The Rules of Investing's three regular questions

Culture is not something that immediately springs to mind when assessing a company and its prospects for the future. More often than not, we investors are scouring profit and loss statements, comparing financial ratios and (if we have the time and skill) constructing valuation models. However, good culture is critical in a business; it takes a long time to build and is hard to maintain. And yet, it can take as little as one rogue employee to upset the delicate balance and ruin it completely. This is something that Qiao Ma, portfolio manager for the Munro Global Growth Small and Mid-Cap Fund, is intimately aware of. As Ma revealed, if she determines that the culture is wrong when conducting her due diligence of a company, despite everything else looking good, she is walking away. No 'ifs'. No 'buts'. She's not investing in that company. "When it’s the wrong culture, it’s 100% of the [investment] decision," she said. Culture is the ultimate forward-looking indicator of where a company is going. It does not matter, the past glory it was able to achieve. If you have the wrong culture, you have no space." In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Livewire's Chris Conway learns more about Ma’s investment philosophy, how it has developed over the years, and her outlook for growth investing – particularly in the small and mid-cap space. Ma also shares a handful of stocks she likes right now and the types of opportunities she is hunting for over the next 12 months. Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 0:47 - How Qiao Ma's investment philosophy has developed over time 3:33 - Value versus growth 3:58 - On working at Lehman Brothers during the GFC 5:57 - The best lessons from investment legend Peter Cooper: The importance of culture 9:13 - How much culture should play into investment decision-making 10:59 - Qiao's most memorable stock picks from her career 12:49 - The biggest surprises in markets from the last two years 14:38 - The outlook on growth for the next 12-24 months 17:57 - The major risks the Munro team is spending the most time debating 23:43 - The catalyst for small and mid caps to rebound 24:25 - A stock that can fund its own growth: JD Sports (LON: JD) 28:02 - Why earnings durability is so important 29:18 - A high-conviction stock pick for the year ahead: On Holding (NYSE: ONON) 30:31 - The Rules of Investing's 3 common questions ____________________________________________________________ Disclaimer: The information provided by Munro Partners is general information only and is not intended to include, or constitute as, financial product advice. The views held by Munro Partners are current at the time of recording and are subject to change. Every effort has been made to ensure that the material contained in this document is accurate at the time of publication. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. This information has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. You should obtain independent advice from a licenced professional adviser before making any investment decision. Information about the Munro funds, including the product disclosure statements (PDS) for the Munro Funds is available at www.munropartners.com.au. Munro Partners is a corporate authorised representative of Munro Asset Management Limited, AFSL 480509.

From geopolitics to fiscal policy, commodities to equities, this week's featured guest on The Rules of Investing has some high-conviction views on a whole range of subjects. For more than 40 years, Donald Amstad traded his way through the highs and lows of financial markets. After completing his undergraduate studies at Oxford University, Amstad began his career at Japanese trading house Nomura. He went on to hold roles at JPMorgan, JPMorgan Asset Management, and the Bank of America before spending the last 15 years of his career at Aberdeen Standard (now, abrdn). And although he may be a fixed income specialist by trade, you would be wise to listen to Amstad's interviews on many other subjects. Long-time readers and viewers of Livewire may have already seen some of Amstad's thoughts on the markets. In 2019, Amstad was a participant in Livewire's Expert Insights series. One of his videos has garnered more than 800,000 views since it was first uploaded - the most of any Livewire video ever. In the four years since that video was recorded, so much has changed in the world. Among them are the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapidly changing geopolitical situation to the slow (and ongoing death) of quantitative easing. But even as the world has changed, Amstad's core views on some of the most pressing challenges of our time have not. In fact, they have strengthened. This week, Livewire's Hans Lee sat down with Amstad for a half-hour conversation on the big picture issues that are driving markets - and the issues that are not driving markets (yet). This is a conversation you cannot afford to miss. Note: This interview was conducted on Tuesday 7 November 2023.

Despite all of his success, Morry Waked has remained relatively under the radar. He’s not one to boast of his achievements, and he’s very rarely fronted the media. At Livewire, we dedicate ourselves to finding the best fund managers in Australia - and in a testament to how underground Morry is, he hadn’t even popped up on our radar. Last week, however, Morry found himself thrust into the spotlight and was inducted into the Australian Fund Manager Hall of Fame - joining a now 22-name strong list of the country's most recognisable fund managers such as Kerr Neilson, Chris Cuffe, Anton Tagliaferro, Catherine Allfrey, Phil King and many more. What’s unique, is that all 21 other names on this list are fundamental investors. This is the first time that someone who employs a quantitative, or systematic approach to investing, as Morry describes it, has been added to the Hall of Fame. In this episode, Morry sits down with Livewire's Ally Selby for a look at his remarkable career, a deep dive into quantitative investing, as well as some of the insights that Morry's models have identified today. Note: This interview was recorded on Thursday 26 October 2023. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/invest-in-what-you-know-avoid-what-you-don-t-lessons-from-a-hall-of-fame-fund-manager/ Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 2:59 - Fate and purpose: How Morry fell into funds management 3:59 - On trying to educate investors on his quantitative/systematic strategy 5:45 - Morry's career journey 7:02 - The greatest lessons from Morry's career so far 8:50 - Markets and models change, but Morry's philosophy doesn't 10:35 - On using Artificial Intelligence in investing 11:16 - A beginner's guide to quantitative/systematic investing 12:58 - Common misconceptions 13:56 - The importance of remaining unemotional when investing 15:05 - Where we are in the cycle today 17:43 - Where Morry and the Vinva team see opportunity both locally and abroad 19:07 - Why these models give Vinva a leg up on the competition 22:17 - ROI's common questions: What the market is getting wrong and lessons from wins and losses from Morry's career

The times when a company is dominating headlines (for all the wrong reasons) are the best time to buy. Take Medibank Private (ASX: MPL), for example, which you may remember, was embroiled in a data breach in October 2022. On the news, the stock's share price plummeted more than 20%. And while it still hasn't retraced its steps to its prior glory, astute investors who picked up the private health insurance provider on the cheap would have since enjoyed a return of around 22%. Today, there are two businesses on the ASX that are similarly making headlines: ResMed (ASX: RMD) and Qantas (ASX: QAN). And while one of these businesses is likely to continue to face headwinds going forward, the other could just be the "most outstanding buy idea on the ASX" today. That's according to Airlie Funds Management's Emma Fisher, who believes if a company's balance sheet is intact, times of "maximum pain" are usually an investor's best indicator that a business is a buy. In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby learns where Emma is seeing the most value on the ASX today, why the data proves it pays to be bullish on the stock market over the long term, what separates the good investors from the great ones, as well as a deep dive on why the team is still buying CSL (ASX: CSL) despite downgrading the stock. Plus, she also shares why she believes the market is focusing far too much on the macro, as well as the stock she would back if the market were to close for the next five years. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 27 September 2023. Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 1:26 - How Emma Fisher thinks about investing 4:06 - Why we need a reality check 6:45 - What keeps Emma Fisher inspired 9:42 - The biggest changes in the Airlie Australian Share Fund portfolio and key lessons from the past two years in markets 13:11 - Portfolio holdings that have been more resilient than expected: James Hardie (ASX: JHX) 14:20 - Why being bearish may sound smart, but being bullish makes money 17:01 - Times of maximum fear are the best times to make money: The Medibank (ASX: MPL) example 19:57 - Emma's analysis of Qantas (ASX: QAN) and ResMed (ASX: RMD) 27:07 - What separates the good investors from the exceptional ones - and it's not a high IQ 29:37 - The biases Emma has learnt to manage - and how you can too 32:03 - Where Emma is seeing the most value today 37:45 - Analysis of CSL and the Vifor acquisition 42:46 - One thing investors are getting wrong about markets 43:48 - A story of a big loss from Emma's career and what she learnt from it 46:12 - Why cashflow is paramount 46:35 - One stock that Emma would hold if the markets were to close for five years: ResMed (ASX: RMD)

Matthew Kidman is a well-known entity to readers of Livewire, as host of Success and More Interesting Stuff, Buy Hold Sell, and most recently, Livewire Live. Finally, we got him in the hot seat to run us through his own journey into funds management, his approach to investing, and the way he’s thinking about markets today. From hard truths on a squash court to starting his own shop, Centennial Asset Management, Matt’s story is one of happenstance. It’s also a story about the importance of mentors and networks. To steal a line from Top Gun, the list is long but distinguished. Geoff Wilson, John Sevior, Anton Tagliaferro and Peter Morgan, to name but a few. Their influence can be seen in the way Matt runs Centennial Asset Management and its Level 18 Fund. While it focuses on value and small caps, it’s got a highly flexible mandate that lets it ride momentum when the market is on, go short when it’s not, and preserve capital when crises hit. We cover all these topics, and more, in this bumper episode. Note: this episode was recorded on September 20, 2023. Timestamps 0:00 - START 2:16 - Hard truths on a squash court 5:50 - Getting a start in journalism 6:30 - Landing book deals with Geoff Wilson 16:30 - 13 years at Wilson Asset Management 20:30 - Taking time off to do a PhD 22:30 - Mentors in finance 26:20 - Bottoms don't have to be V-shaped 29:50 - Key lead indicators 33:40 - From hard landing, to soft landing, to no landing 36:30 - China's in the hurt locker 41:00 - Buying growth 43:50 - Financials 45:30 - A flexible mandate 47:40 - Hiding in large caps 51:30 - Riding a market bounce with smalls 54:20 - Moving into quality 58:30 - Is lithium crowded? 01:01:27 - Watch rates 01:06:16 - Bottom drawer stock WANT ACCESS TO STOCK IDEAS? You told us you’re looking for an edge in investing. As the principal sponsor of Livewire Live 2023, Bell Direct is giving you exclusive access to 3 Bell Potter stock reports each week PLUS the chance win a share of 3 million Velocity Frequent Flyer Points. Get your reports and enter the Velocity competition now. Competition ends 31 October 2023. Entry conditions and eligibility criteria apply. NSW Authority No. TP/02866, SA Permit No. T23/123, ACT Permit No. TP 23/01592 Get my 3 Bell Potter stock reports now.

Short sellers have had a tough time of it over the past decade. The era of free money lifted all boats, including companies that would perhaps otherwise be candidates for short selling. Today's market is radically different. Central banks have lifted rates in a desperate attempt to control inflation. Global equity markets have performed well, but much of that performance can be attributed to the tech titans of the Nasdaq. Consumers have less money to spend, while costs are up and top line revenue is down. This is fertile hunting ground for short sellers. Short selling is risky, and beyond the capacity of most normal investors. But that doesn't mean that normal investors can't take on board short seller's methods and positions, and steer clear of certain companies accordingly. I speak to a lot of hedge fund managers about their methods, however most aren't willing or able to expose their actual short positions. Dr David Allen, who manages Plato's Global Alpha Fund, has no such qualms. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, hosted by David Thornton, Allen explains his red flag system for identifying shorts and some of the companies it's identified. He also discusses his his long process, which draws on elements of growth, value and quality. And it wouldn't be an episode of ROI without Allen naming some of the companies he has conviction in right now. Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday September 19, 2023. Timestamps 0:00 - START 2:00 - Life as a professional athlete 3:20 - JP Morgan (and surviving the GFC) 8:00 - Combining growth, value and quality 16:00 - A red flag system for finding shorts 20:40 - The most common red flag in today's market 21:55 - Two high conviction shorts on the ASX 26:00 - Access to the C-suite isn't what it used to be 27:00 - Is Qantas (ASX: QAN) a bargain or value trap? 34:55 - Does nVidia deserve its valuation? 37:57 - You don't need to be concentrated to generate returns 39:17 - A humbling experience 43:30 - This drug will change the face of healthcare WANT ACCESS TO STOCK IDEAS? You told us you’re looking for an edge in investing. As the principal sponsor of Livewire Live 2023, Bell Direct is giving you exclusive access to 3 Bell Potter stock reports each week PLUS the chance win a share of 3 million Velocity Frequent Flyer Points. Get your reports and enter the Velocity competition now. Competition ends 31 October 2023. Entry conditions and eligibility criteria apply. NSW Authority No. TP/02866, SA Permit No. T23/123, ACT Permit No. TP 23/01592 Get my 3 Bell Potter stock reports now.

We're constantly told that diversification is the only free lunch in finance. Yet most of the world's top investors choose not to eat it. Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, John Maynard Keynes, Lou Simpson, George Soros. All run concentrated portfolios. Today's guest on the Rules of Investing is similarly esteemed, with a similarly concentrated portfolio. Claremont's Bob Desmond runs a portfolio of just 10-15 "quality growth" stocks. And many of the stocks he owned during the 'free money' period of high liquidity and high growth are the same stocks he owns today. In today's episode, Bob explains why quality growth is the best strategy in all markets, why investors shouldn't react to "bear porn" headlines, why nVidia might not be overpriced despite its recent run, and the one stock he would love to own "forever". Note: This episode was recorded on Monday September 11, 2023. Timestamps 0:00 - START 1:46 - Surprises and uncertainty 2:46 - Is nVidia overvalued? 8:14 - Predicting the future is a mug's game 9:40 - Trouble at Apple 12:09 - Markets change, so pick companies that [mostly] stay the same 15:40 - Forever stocks 17:41 - High conviction bias 21:50 - When's the right time to sell? 26:50 - Don't get sucked in to "bear porn" headlines 28:30 - Do investors sell out of growth too soon? 34:10 - Sidestepping the GFC 35:30 - Quality is armageddon armour 41:01 - A bullet proof business model Want access to stock ideas? You told us you’re looking for an edge in investing. As the principal sponsor of Livewire Live 2023, Bell Direct is giving you exclusive access to 3 Bell Potter stock reports each week PLUS the chance win a share of 3 million Velocity Frequent Flyer Points. Get your reports and enter the Velocity competition now. Competition ends 31 October 2023. Entry conditions and eligibility criteria apply. NSW Authority No. TP/02866, SA Permit No. T23/123, ACT Permit No. TP 23/01592 Get my 3 Bell Potter stock reports now.

Ten years ago, investing was an easy game. Thanks to rates near zero and reckless fiscal spending, markets were drunk on liquidity. There was multiple expansion across the board, and winning was relatively easy. Pick an index, sit back and let multiple expansion take care of the rest. Today’s reality is far different. Volatility is high, correlations are weak, and the once reliable 60/40 portfolio is, well, not so reliable. In today’s episode of The Rules of Investing, I sit down with Frances Lim, Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific Macro at KKR. Francis strikes a refreshingly positive tone on the market today, pointing out that wages, nominal GDP and earnings are all above trend. Frances gives us a full macro appraisal of US and Asian markets, the state of China, how she views investing in 2023, and where she’s finding value in the market. Thanks again to Bell Direct for their support of this podcast. And remember, for a limited time, you can get 3 current Bell Potter stock reports each week. It’s the kind of exclusive research that can give investors an edge. So go to Bell Direct and look for the Livewire logo to get your Bell Potter stock reports now. Note: This interview was recorded on August 22, 2023. Timestamps 0:00 - START 1:50 - Soft landing? 4:20 - A great setup for companies 7:17 - The health of corporate America 10:17 - What's happening in China? 14:00 - China's trickle-down economics 19:00 - Correlations in trouble 23:10 - Time for a 40/30/30 portfolio 24:27 - The best risk-adjusted return 27:40 - Is passive investing enough? 29:40 - The role of thematic investing 31:30 - How active should active investors be? 32:40 - The best opportunities in Asia right now

There are a select few stocks on the ASX that boast true market darling status. Whereas other stocks sell off at the hint of bad news, market darlings seem to emit an aura effect on markets that itself attracts investment. Biotech company CSL is arguably the Aussie market’s preeminent market darling, having returned 5,741% since inception. For a while, it seemed like CSL could do no wrong. But even royalty can be dethroned... Today’s guest is Ray David, Portfolio Manager and Partner at Blackwattle Investment Partners. Alongside Joseph Koh, Ray runs Blackwattle’s brand new Long-Short Quality Fund. Ray has a red flag system for identifying his short and underweight positions. He put CSL through the ringer, and as you’ll learn today, it spat out a sea of red flags. He also discusses the Ponzi scheme that sparked his interest in investment finance, why he’s bullish BHP irrespective of the commodity cycle, his overweight positions in industrials, and the media company with the best suite of assets on the ASX. Thanks again to Bell Direct for their support of this podcast. And remember, for a limited time, you can get 3 current Bell Potter stock reports each week. It’s the kind of exclusive research that can give investors an edge. So go to Bell Direct and look for the Livewire logo to get your Bell Potter stock reports now. Note: this interview was recorded on August 15, 2023 Timstamps 0:00 - START 1:56 - A ponzi introduction to finance 5:30 - Lessons from the the Buy and Sell sides of the industry 10:00 - Have risk assets beaten central banks? 11:46 - The bear case for banks 14:00 - Defining 'quality' 18:00 - A new era for short selling 22:54 - Red flags for CSL 27:00 - Overweight industrials 29:10 - The best asset book on the ASX 30:26 - Reporting season buys 34:40 - Mining needs explosives 37:37 - Franchising done right

Livewire Live is an investor event like no other where Australia’s most experienced investors will debate the critical topics in markets right now. It is set to be an unmissable event with an exceptional lineup of speakers and innovative formats. Tickets will sell out, secure your spot here. Speakers We will be announcing additional speakers in the coming weeks. Robert Millner, Chairman, Washington H Soul Pattinson Bobby Yazdani, Founder & Partner, Cota Capital Andrew Clifford, Co-founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer & CEO, Platinum Asset Management Martin Conlon, Head of Australian Equities, Schroders Nick Griffin, Chief Investment Officer, Munro Partners Mark Landau, Joint Managing Director & Chief Investment Officer, L1 Capital Christopher Joye, Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Officer, Coolabah Capital Matt Williams, Head of Australian Equities, Airlie Funds Management Mary Manning, Portfolio Manager, Alphinity Investment Management Phil King, Chief Investment Officer, Regal Funds Management Tim Carleton, Principal & Portfolio Manager, Auscap Asset Management Jacob Mitchell, Chief Investment Officer, Antipodes Partners David Allen, Head of Long Short Strategies, Plato Investment Management Casey McLean, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity International Andrew McKie, Portfolio Manager Elston Investment Management Alexandre Ventelon, Head of Research and Investment Strategy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Dania Zinurova - Portfolio Manager, Wilson Asset Management Marcus Burns - Portfolio Manager, Spheria Asset Management Diana Mousina - Senior Economist, AMP

There is a good reason why Australia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Future Fund, maintains a 16% allocation to private equity. Returns, returns, returns. Private equity, and the lucrative returns it offers, has traditionally been the restricted domain of institutional investors and off limits to retail investors. Ellerston Capital's JAADE Private Assets Fund bucks that trend by offering retail investors exposure to unlisted Australian growth companies. Like private equity, JAADE’s managers act as a partner with the companies it invests in by holding a space on their respective boards. It’s a model that clearly works. As of June this year, the retail fund has returned 14.48% pa over three years and almost 18% per annum since inception. In today’s episode, Livewire's David Thornton sits down with Jayne Shaw, Investment Director at Ellerston Capital and analyst for the JAADE fund. Jayne didn’t take the typical road into funds management. Initially trained as a nurse, she went on to take a number of roles in leadership positions in healthcare organisations. This appropriately explains why Jayne looks after the healthcare allocation within the JAADE fund. She also explains why the “carpark indicator” is a great way to know when the deals are on in private equity. Topics include: the evolution of private equity over the last few years, today’s deal flow, the first order principles that guide Jayne’s process; and the investment case for Mable and Prospection – two companies that are shaking things up in the healthcare space. Timestamps 0:00 - START 2:30 - An uncommon journey 5:03 - Private equity has changed 10:17 - Dry powder 12:16 - Counting cars 14:00 - JAADE 16:00 - It all comes down to the people 19:58 - Hard conversations 21:30 - Earnings runway 22:25 - Mable 25:40 - Prospection 32:39 - Why healthcare companies are good investments 37:07 - Don't put too much weight in the past 42:00 - A company for the bottom drawer

If there is one request that we repeatedly receive from our audience, it’s that you want more content on the wonderful, often under-covered world of microcaps. It makes cents (literally). These stocks usually fly under the radar of the masses, providing diligent investors with the opportunity to invest in mispriced stocks and generate capital growth over the long term. However, investing in this area of the market comes with its risks. In 2022, the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index suffered a brutal blow (it fell 24%), with one Livewire contributor describing it as a "killing field". This year, however, the Index has lifted around 3%, but it hasn't been a tide that has lifted all boats. So in today's episode, we're joined by microcap expert Jessica Farr-Jones, the portfolio manager of the Regal Emerging Companies Strategy*. She shares why she is feeling bullish about the opportunity in small and micro caps, some of the stocks that have her excited, as well as a deep dive into what small and microcap investors can expect this reporting season. And yes, if the last name sounds familiar, she’s the daughter of Wallabies great Nick Farr-Jones, who now also works in funds management as a mining specialist. *Note: This strategy is only available to wholesale investors. However, around 25% of the Regal listed investment trust (ASX: RF1) is exposed to the Emerging Companies Strategy, which investors can access on the ASX.