The President’s Inbox

This episode unpacks how the war with Iran will affect the future of the Gulf countries’ security and economic prosperity. Host: James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR Guest: Mina Al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief, The National We Discuss: Whether Gulf states supported or opposed the war with Iran and their role in the intensive diplomatic efforts to avoid conflict before it began. How Iran’s retaliation expanded the war into the Gulf, targeting civilian infrastructure, energy hubs, and global transit points. The scale of drone and missile attacks across the region, and what they reveal about modern asymmetric warfare. Who is actually in charge in Iran, and how the IRGC is shaping decision-making and escalation. Why regime change in Iran remains unlikely, despite internal unrest and external pressure. Why Gulf leaders don’t want a simple ceasefire, but rather a long-term security reset that addresses Iran’s missile and drone programs. How the war is stress-testing Gulf economies and their long-term bets on stability, globalization, and diversification. Mentioned on the Episode: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, July 14, 2015 Vibhu Mishra, "Security Council Adopts Gulf-Backed Resolution Condemning Iran Attacks; Russia Bid Fails," United Nations News For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/gulf-states-under-fire Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

We discuss: Why U.S. allies are refusing to join the Iran war, and what that signals about weakening alliance cohesion and growing strategic independence. How the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, is already reshaping the global economy and raising the stakes for every U.S. partner. Europe’s balancing act, publicly rejecting the war while quietly enabling U.S. operations through military bases. Japan’s pragmatic hedging, supporting the U.S. diplomatically while using constitutional limits to avoid direct military involvement. The cascading global risks of the conflict, from energy shocks and inflation to refugee flows and rising geopolitical instability. The long-term erosion of U.S. soft power, especially among younger generations in Europe and shifting public sentiment in Japan. Mentioned on the Episode: “Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks at the Munich Security Conference,” The White House “Secretary of State Marco Rubio Delivers Remarks to the Munich Security Conference,” U.S. Embassy in Switzerland and Liechtenstein “G7 Statement on Support to Partners in the Middle East,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/why-allies-arent-following-on-iran Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Max Boot, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick senior fellow for national security studies at the Council, sits down with James M. Lindsay to analyze what tactical and strategic lessons can be drawn from the U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran. Mentioned on the Episode: Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, Alex Leary, and Vera Bergengruen, "Trump Knew the Risk of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz. He Still Went to War," Wall Street Journal Hugo Lowell, "U.S. Only Has 25% of All Patriot Missile Interceptors Needed for Pentagon’s Military Plans," The Guardian Seth Jones, "Empty Bins in a Wartime Environment: The Challenge to the U.S. Defense Industrial Base," Center for Strategic and International Studies For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-strategy-gap-in-iran Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Lynne Olson, acclaimed historian and author of Those Angry Days: Roosevelt, Lindbergh, and America’s Fight Over World War II, 1939–1941, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the history of the Lend-Lease Act of 1941 and the domestic political struggles that shaped the United States’ entry into the Second World War. To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a year-long series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead. Mentioned on the Episode: Winston Churchill, "Letter to President Franklin Delano Roosevelt," December 8, 1940 Council on Foreign Relations, The 10 Best and 10 Worst Decisions in U.S. Foreign Policy Charles Lindbergh Testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, January 23, 1941 Lynne Olson, Those Angry Days: Roosevelt, Lindbergh, and America’s Fight Over World War II, 1939-1941 Wendel Wilkie Testimony to the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, February 10, 1941 For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-250-the-lend-lease-act Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Dalia Dassa Kaye, senior fellow at the University of California, Los Angeles Burkle Center for International Relations, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss President Donald Trump's decision to launch a war against Iran, the prospects for regime change, and the consequences for the region. Mentioned on the Episode: Michael Birnbaum, John Hudson, Karen DeYoung, Natalie Allison, and Souad Mekhennet, “Push from Saudis, Israel, Helped Move Trump to Attack Iran,” Washington Post Dalia Dassa Kaye, Enduring Hostility: The Making of America's Iran Policy Zolan Kanno-Younge, David Sanger, and Tyler Pager, “Trump Says War Could Last Weeks and Offers Contradictory Visions of New Regime,” New York Times Michael Scherer, “I Have Agreed to Talk,” The Atlantic Donald Trump Truth Social Post, “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/trump-chooses-war-with-iran Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Michael Bustamante, Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Cuba. Mentioned on the Episode: Marc Caputo, “Exclusive: Rubio's Secret Squeeze on Raul Castro's Cuba,” Axios For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/cuba-on-the-brink Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Jeremi Suri, Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs and Professor of Public Affairs and History at the University of Texas at Austin, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss President Richard Nixon's historic 1972 visit to China, which ushered in a new era of U.S.-Sino relations and altered the course of world politics. To mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. declaration of independence, CFR is dedicating a year-long series of articles, videos, podcasts, events, and special projects that will reflect on two and a half centuries of U.S. foreign policy. Featuring bipartisan voices and expert contributors, the series explores the evolution of America’s role in the world and the strategic challenges that lie ahead. Mentioned on the Episode: James M. Lindsay, The Ten Best and Ten Worst U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions, CFR.org Richard Nixon, “Asia After Vietnam,” Foreign Affairs Jeremi Suri, Henry Kissinger and the American Century Jeremi Suri and Zachary Suri, Democracy of Hope Jeremi Suri and Zachary Suri, This Is Democracy For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/america-250-nixon-goes-to-china Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

F. Gregory Gause III, a leading scholar on Saudi Arabia and an associate fellow at the Middle East Institute, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the evolution of U.S.-Saudi relations as Saudi Arabia navigates its role in a Middle East with a more assertive Israel, a weaker Iran, and a less predictable United States. For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-new-saudi-strategy Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.