The Pomp Letter

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Conversations ranged from understanding the recent drawdown in bitcoin’s price to underwriting the odds of deflation to unpacking the convergence of artificial intelligence and bitcoin.Here are the major takeaways that I had from the week:* Bitcoin investors have been here before — many investors have previously held bitcoin through numerous drawdowns of 50% or more, so there was a lack of panic that was noticeable throughout the event. Multiple members of the media explicitly called this out to me as well. This lack of panic gives me the idea that odds are higher that the current bear market will be shallower and shorter than historical comparisons. * Institutions have arrived — past bitcoin conferences were filled with promises of institutions on the way. The conversation this year was centered around the progress that institutions have made in bitcoin, including the highly successful launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, the various public companies that hold bitcoin on their balance sheet, the accelerated adoption of digital credit, the fast growth of stablecoins, the current initiatives in tokenization, and the requirement that each legacy financial organization have a bitcoin or crypto strategy.* Bitcoin and artificial intelligence are on a collision course — it was nearly impossible to have a conversation with a professional investor or an entrepreneur without both technologies coming up. It is obvious that bitcoin and AI are the future of finance. There was plenty of speculation on how AI agents will transact or store value, so naturally bitcoin and stablecoins were the popular answers. * Deflation is a big risk — my personal view is that deflationary pressure from tariffs, deportations, artificial intelligence and robotics are swallowing the US economy. I asked many speakers or attendees whether they agreed and the majority of answers were aligned with my view. There are some outstanding concerns about the economic data or the government’s continued money printing, but overall people seemed satisfied that high inflation was not going to be a problem in the short-term.* Financial advisors are holding or adding bitcoin to portfolios — Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explained that a recent survey showed that 99% of financial advisors who already had client assets in bitcoin were either “holding” or “adding” based on the recent price drawdown. That data suggests the RIA channel is convinced of the long-term return potential of the asset, which creates sticky capital from their clients.* Institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs are not selling — Blackrock’s Robert Mitchnick explained that majority of the institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs have been holding their exposure during the bitcoin drawdown. He sees continued demand from Blackrock clients and believes there is considerable more room for growth in the ETF allocations.* Stablecoins are not going away — multiple speakers explained that stablecoin growth has been impressive, but the more important data point is how ingrained stablecoins are becoming in legacy institutions’ strategies. It feels like stablecoins are the third crypto product to find true product-market fit after bitcoin and crypto exchanges. * No one wants to call “bottom” yet — the price of bitcoin may be down 50%, yet there were not many takers when I asked various folks to claim the market had bottomed. People are cautious because it seems the past scars of previous bear markets has forced them to prepare for an even more significant drop in price. * All eyes are on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — the consensus feeling about the SBR is happiness that it was put together, but disappointment that the government has not purchased more bitcoin. If the market needs a new catalyst to rally higher, purchases for the SBR could be a simple way to ignite the end of the bear market.* Nothing stops this train — there was not a single person I spoke with at the conference who believes the US government can balance the budget, stop printing money, or lower the national debt. The widespread belief is that assets that benefit from debasement (bitcoin/gold/real estate/etc) will do very well over the next decade, especially as the current administration runs the economy hot and drives economic growth.I really enjoyed putting together Bitcoin Investor Week. We will be po

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Rather than the persistent risk of high inflation driven by out of control government spending, the economy is being swallowed by an expansive deflationary force.This new risk is dangerous because it requires humans to update their mental models to be able to identify, understand, and mitigate it. And we know humans are horrible about changing their mind, especially when it requires them to synthesize new information.First, let’s discuss where the challenges lie in identifying this deflation risk. There is a past experience issue and a modern data error that is driving the problem. The past experience issue is that an entire generation finally capitulated in recent years after realizing that undisciplined government spending led to higher levels of inflation. These folks failed to see the cause and effect coming out of the global financial crisis and they only took the lesson to heart after the pandemic era insanity that drove inflation over 9% in the government’s data.The folks in this cohort are now trained to look at government spending and conclude that inflation will rise if the national debt is increasing. That was true in the past, but it is not true right now, which is why I call it a “past experience issue.” People are looking at the inputs, but not thinking critically about what that means for modern outputs.The second big issue is a modern data error. Most of the “experts” and mainstream reporters are still relying on the Bureau of Labor Statistics to tell them what the inflation reading is. It doesn’t matter that the BLS is estimating more than 40% of the CPI inputs, nor does it matter that the BLS continues to manipulate the data collection by leveraging unproven and discredited methods.These people simply believe whatever the government says.The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting inflation to be 2.7% year-over-year. But compare that number to Truflation, which is reporting inflation under 0.9% as of yesterday.This is a very wide gap in the metrics. In fact, the most concerning part is that the BLS is saying inflation is almost 50% higher than the Fed’s stated target, yet Truflation is saying inflation is more than 50% lower than the Fed’s stated target.The sky can’t be blue and green at the same time, nor can inflation be high and low simultaneously either.It is no secret that I trust the Truflation data much more than the BLS. Truflation uses more than 14 million daily data points provided by over 40 independent data providers. I’ll take the real-time, verifiable metric over the lagging, estimated metric any day of the week.But this brings us back to the most important question in the economy today…why is inflation falling if the government is continuing to print money like drunken sailors?This is where the deflationary force swallowing the US economy comes in.There are three main contributors in my mind:* Tariffs are deflationary, not inflationary. I know this is still heavily debated, but I continue to explain that tariffs bring down domestic prices over time and they change consumer demand trends. There are anecdotal businesses that will show their input costs are rising, which is then being passed on to the consumer, but those anecdotes are heavily outweighed by the aggregate impact of tariffs on the US economy.* Artificial intelligence is the largest deflationary force of our lifetime. Companies are literally bragging on a daily basis how they are being more productive with less employees. The industry is moving so fast that it is hard for most people to keep up and the economic incentive to adopt this technology is only going to get larger. Lastly, A.I. is now in the “exponential production” phase where A.I. is writing code, so we are no longer limited by human time and energy.* Robotics is a subset of the A.I. story, but it deserves its own call out. It is very obvious that self-driving cars are going to be cheaper and safer, so they will become the standard. Companies like Amazon are the perfect example…the e-commerce giant employs 1 million robots and 1.5 million humans. They are reportedly looking to replace 500,000 jobs with robots

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Let me explain…The US economy, and corresponding financial markets, have been hyper sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy decisions for the last ~ 30 years. The central bank was cutting rates in the mid-to-late 1990s, which helped propel the internet boom higher. Finally, when the Fed started to raise rates in the second half of 1999, the tech bubble popped shortly afterwards and everything came back down to reality.During the Global Financial Crisis, the Fed invented the insane Quantitative Easing policy that led to a prolonged period of 0% interest rates and hundreds of billions of dollars bring printed. This QE playbook kicked off a decade-long bull market that made every stock market bear look like a fool.Finally, during the 2020 pandemic, the Federal Reserve pulled out the old QE playbook again. Interest rates went to 0% via two emergency cuts and the government decided to print trillions of dollars, which created more than 9% inflation within a 24-month period.The main thing that stopped the 2021 party was the Fed’s decision to reverse course and start hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in history. We went from 0% to over 5% rates in a very short period of time. The regime shift was so abrupt that multiple banks failed because of their inability to navigate the volatility.This brings us back to the “don’t fight the Fed” adage. It made sense because the Federal Reserve would set policy and the world would react to those decisions. Quite literally, the Fed was in control.That doesn’t seem to be the case right now though.The current President and his administration have effectively taken control of the US economy and financial markets. They have implemented a set of policies to reimagine the country, including deregulation, tax cuts, smaller government, and re-shoring of American jobs and manufacturing.In taking this approach, the government is rapidly changing the economic conditions of the market and it is putting the Fed on their back foot. The central bankers already had a hard enough time trying to make monetary policy decisions based on faulty data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now these folks are being asked to understand substantial changes across the economy, including policy differences and advancements in cutting-edge technology like artificial intelligence.This is why I don’t believe the Fed is in control anymore. In fact, I think the exact opposite is true. The market is forcing the hand of the Fed. America’s central bank begrudgingly cut interest rates at the end of 2025 because the labor market was softening at a much faster pace than forecasted. The softness in the labor market was not due to normal business cycle developments, but rather a combination of policy decisions and technology innovation.Jerome Powell essentially said he and his colleagues were more worried about the labor market than about inflation coming back. But the Fed’s fight against the market is not over yet. My base case is that inflation is going to continue falling in the coming months.Truflation is reporting inflation at 1.2% as of last night. If you take the BLS’ methodology, and you replace the ~ 40% of inputs that are estimations with accurate measurements of the input goods, then Truflation shows inflation would be less than 1% year-over-year.The big takeaway from this situation, according to Truflation, is that inflation has collapsed from its recent peak, dropping 151 basis points in just three months.Truflation’s real-time data, which is sourced from over 14 million daily price points across 40+ independent providers, captures this deceleration far faster than traditional metrics, revealing a pricing environment that’s shifted decisively toward disinflation. For investors, this signals a fundamental reset in cost pressures that official data will only confirm weeks later.So what is my big takeaway from this situation?The Federal Reserve has lost control of the economy. They are serving at the pleasure of market forces now. The labor market is weakening, inflation is falling aggressively

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Before we get into what is likely to happen with this investigation and how it will impact the market, I want to remind everyone of the context.Background on Powell’s previous commentsThe investigation centers on whether Powell made false or misleading statements to Congress during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025. This testimony addressed the Federal Reserve’s ongoing multi-year renovation project for its headquarters buildings in Washington, D.C., which is estimated to cost around $2.5 billion and has experienced significant cost overruns (reportedly around $600-700 million).Key points of contention include:* Powell allegedly denied or downplayed the inclusion of certain luxury or non-essential features in the final project plans, such as private elevators, premium marble, water features/fountains, a VIP dining room, a rooftop terrace garden, and other upgrades.* These features appeared in earlier project documents submitted to bodies like the National Capital Planning Commission, but Powell stated during testimony that many had been removed or were not part of the current scope, attributing cost increases to factors like inflation in materials/labor, asbestos removal, soil contamination, and accessibility requirements.* Critics (including some Republican lawmakers and Trump administration figures) claim these statements were inaccurate or deceptive, potentially constituting perjury or false statements to Congress.The probe announced last night involves analyzing Powell’s public statements (including the congressional testimony), reviewing spending records, and other documents related to the renovation.An important point is that the renovation was reportedly approved in November 2025 by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro (a Trump appointee). Prosecutors have contacted Powell’s staff for documents, and on Friday, January 9, 2026, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas threatening a potential criminal indictment tied to the June testimony.Powell’s responseAfter the New York Times broke the story of the investigation, Jerome Powell released a video message defending his actions and calling into question the motivation behind the investigation. Powell said:“This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings… Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”There are a few takeaways I had from this response. First, Powell posted a video response to the allegations within minutes of the New York Times report being published. That seems highly suspicious. It takes time to create a script, record a video, edit the video, and get it posted online. The Federal Reserve is not exactly known as a world class content creator, so my guess is that the Fed or Powell are the ones who leaked the investigation to the media.There is nothing wrong with that decision per se, but it does beg the question of why would the Fed or Powell want to create a flame war in the public eye? I don’t know the answer. I suspect we will get answers later that provide clarity in hindsight.Second, the response seemed much more focused on the argument “this is political!” than denying the allegations. I have learned over time that the more someone yells about something, the more likely they are hiding something about it. As one user on X said, the response can usually tell you more than the initial accusation.This means that Powell is probably more political than most people realize. I wouldn’t blame him. The President and the administration have been pressuring him for months. It is human nature to dislike someone attacking you or to want to get revenge. It wouldn’t make the decision to succumb to politics the right decision, but it is understandable how humans get into these situations. The Federal Reserve renovationsIn order to understand what is happening with the Federal Reserve renovations, you have to ignore the noise and go to the source material. I

Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years. The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence. Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To Investors,I have spent the last few days thinking about why bitcoin underperformed expectations in 2025. My conclusion is that multiple trends, forces, and developments came together to create the perfect storm for the digital currency to end the year lower than where it started.Lower risk = lower returnFirst, bitcoin is much less risky today than at any other point in the history of the asset. No one believes the US government is going to shut bitcoin down. The government isn’t going to come and arrest bitcoin holders. There is true decentralization, including from individual retail investors to the largest financial institutions in the world.This decentralization removes the risk of a 51% attack, along with other nefarious actions that could fundamentally change the bitcoin value proposition. Bitcoin has also gone through numerous economic situations without failing or going to $0. The digital asset has dropped ~80% numerous times, weathered the COVID liquidity crisis, resisted the FTX collapse, and then survived the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in history.This proven resilience means that the risk of holding bitcoin is low. Add in the fact that many of the top financial institutions in the world are embracing the asset and it becomes very difficult to see a scenario where bitcoin “fails.” Because of this newfound conviction in bitcoin’s continued success, we should all expect a lower return moving forward.Buying bitcoin a decade ago was high risk, high reward. Buying bitcoin today is low risk, medium reward. I expect bitcoin to continue outperforming the stock market indexes over the next decade, but it won’t deliver the 80%+ compound annual growth rate that we enjoyed in the past.Global stability is returningBitcoin is supposed to be a hedge against chaos and economic uncertainty. When wars break out, and citizens around the world feel it will be necessary to resist censorship and seizures, bitcoin becomes an attractive asset.However, since President Trump took office there has been more global stability than before. The Israel/Hamas conflict is over. Russia and Ukraine are closer to signing a peace deal than ever before. Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been drastically reduced. The southern border is closed. And former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was removed from his country over the weekend.This “peace through strength” approach is really about the United States returning to its position atop the global world order. There are consequences for people who get out of line. Bad people understand that the US will hunt them down to capture or kill them.All of this creates less chaos and more predictable geopolitical relationships. If there is less chaos, then the chaos hedge (bitcoin) is not sought after like it would otherwise be.Wall Street plays different gamesBitcoin was a long-only game for most of the last 15 years. Anyone with an internet connection could acquire the asset and hold it while they hoped the price went higher. Once Wall Street and the large financial institutions got involved, the game changed substantially.You can think of these changes as a way of “civilizing” bitcoin. Many of the early bitcoiners, who are more akin to cowboys, don’t want to be civilized though. They were attracted to the asymmetric returns and they loved the fact that bitcoin had a libertarian flavor to it. The more “outside the system” bitcoin was, the more these cowboys wanted to buy.Now that bitcoin is being pulled into the legacy financial system (ETFs, treasury companies, funds, options, etc), early holders of bitcoin are exiting at a higher pace than normal. Some of them are selling their bitcoin outright. Others are using complex financial structures to reduce tax burdens, including renouncing US citizenship.But ProCap Financial CIO Jeff Park points out that some OGs are intelligently using options to sell away the upside of their bitcoin exposure in exchange for yield. These covered call strategies are applying significant pressure on bitcoin’s price, which is contributing to the asset’s lack of upside movement.Bitcoin is not the only girl at the partyLastly, bitcoin has historically been the most popular asset available to investors seeking extreme asymmetry and

Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years.The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions.Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence.Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To investors,It seems like every day we are being bombarded with negative headlines, scary predictions of a big market crash, and the promise of economic destruction right around the corner. The people pushing this negative view of the world will point to data points like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey as evidence that American citizens are in big trouble.But as the Wall Street Journal’s Gunjan Banerji recently pointed out, the Goldman Sachs Social Media Economic Sentiment Index has diverged in a big way from the Consumer Sentiment Survey.Which one should you believe? The Goldman survey that measures what people are saying online when they think no one is watching or the academic survey that asks people to fill out an online form with specific “measurement” questions? I’ll take the social media sentiment every day of the week.It isn’t just social media though. Mike Zaccardi shows Google searches for “AI bubble” have started declining from their recent peak.My takeaway from that rapid decline is that most of the AI-related fear was actually just a hysteria induced by mainstream media coverage that served a constant barrage of negative stories for the last few weeks. Nothing has really changed about the AI market or the AI companies, so the fact that people are not furiously asking “are we in a bubble?!” tells me that people are probably not worried about a real bubble being present yet.They shouldn’t be worried about a bubble either. The Federal Reserve is starting to pump capital back into the market. Tom McClellan says “tor those keeping score at home, this new QE will actually be QE5. We had QE4 after the Covid Crash in 2020.”This QE is happening at a time where the US government’s finances are improving too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that “the current calendar year-to-date deficit is $1.52 trillion, which compares to a deficit of $1.93 trillion for the comparable period last year under Biden, a 21% drop.Not only is the deficit smaller under President Trump - the economy is also bigger. The full 2025 calendar year budget deficit to GDP may total only 5.5%, substantially lower than the unsustainably high 6.8% in calendar year 2024 under Biden.”Forget the political sharpshooting and focus on what is important: the US government’s finances are improving. This is good for every American citizen. You can see another area where this is showing up in national gasoline prices. These prices are now the lowest they have been since March 2021.And if that doesn’t get you excited, the Carson Group shows the last two weeks of December have historically been one of the best periods of the year for stocks.I know people are winding down for the holidays, but the market may be coiling for an end of year run. It would be a welcomed Christmas present for investors across markets.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementHow Fed Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin, AI & The MarketJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. 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When he said tariffs wouldn’t lead to empty shelves or the Great Depression, you should have gone long stocks immediately.This makes sense because the leader of the free world, regardless of his political party, had immense power and influence over financial markets. Simply, he can make things happen.But every once in awhile Trump says something about the economy that sounds downright outrageous. The latest example was a few days ago when he said GDP growth should be 20-25% year-over-year. The exact quote was: “instead of a 4% GDP or 3% GDP, it should be able to be 20 or 25%. I don’t know why it can’t be.”At first, this comment sounds ridiculous because the US has averaged 3.2% annual GDP growth since 1947. So the President is telling us he thinks that his economic policies can get us to a growth number that is 700% higher. Again, sounds ridiculous, right?Maybe not. There is a possible path to significant GDP growth. It may be unlikely, but it is possible.First, Michael Arouet highlights the real driver on how we could get to 20-25% GDP numbers. Michael writes “Hear me out, was the entire period since the Great Financial Crisis just an unsustainable artificial debt binge?”If that is true, the US economy could easily grow faster if we were willing to take on substantially more debt. That may sound like a crazy idea, but that is exactly what we have been doing for the last 25 years.The United States’ debt-to-GDP has exploded from about 55% in the year 2000 to nearly 125% in 2024. We are addicted to debt. There is no other way to describe the situation.But the Trump administration has somehow figured out a way to stimulate GDP growth upwards of 3.5%, while reducing the federal budget deficit by around $600 billion.Kevin Hassett went on television last week and said “It’s looking like the deficit for this year will be $600 billion lower than it was last year. That really helps lower inflation. We’ve got the trade deficit cut in half from last year. All of these things are things that should continue to move us towards the Fed target of 2%.”Now this doesn’t mean they are going to balance the budget. In fact, I went from being excited about a balanced budget earlier this year to very cynical about any President in our lifetime being able to balance a budget in light of the structural challenges. But reducing the deficit by $600 billion is still a great development.So this brings us back to growing GDP at a substantially higher rate. The way you do this is ease monetary policy, encourage technology innovation like AI, and deregulate as much as possible. There will be trade-offs to these decisions, but this is the blueprint for growing GDP much faster.Take AI as one example. The explosion of innovation and investment from Silicon Valley has essentially saved the US economy. More than 60% of GDP growth is estimated to be from AI-related investments. Couple that with the interest rate cuts, the return of QE, and a Trump-friendly Fed Chairman for 2026…that should spell faster growth across the US economy.We were promised an economic boom. It looks like we are going to get exactly that. Will it be 20-25% annual GDP growth? Doubtful. But I’ll take 5-7% growth any day of the week.Hope everyone has a great start to their Monday. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementHow Fed Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin, AI & The MarketJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? 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Today’s Letter is Brought To You by Abra!Borrow up to 50% of the value of your crypto holdings with Abra in a highly flexible open term loan. Your collateral is held in a separately managed account where you retain legal title to the assets. Rates are highly competitive, ranging from 4-7%APY.No interest payments are required during the life of the loan. There are no minimums or maximum loan sizes.To learn more, click here. To set up an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.To investors,Quantitative easing is back. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut yesterday, which brings the federal funds rate down to 3.50-3.75%. The vote had three dissenters, including two people who thought we should have left rates unchanged and Fed Governor Stephen Miran who wanted a 50 basis point cut. While the interest rate cut is important, it was consensus across Wall Street that the central bank would reduce the cost of capital by 25 basis points. The big surprise coming out of the two day meeting was the Fed’s announcement to restart balance sheet expansion with $40 billion in monthly Treasury bill buys.My friends at Geiger Capital put it best when they reminded us that Ben Bernanke promised in 2008 that QE was temporary and the Fed’s balance sheet would soon be lower than when they started.As you can see, the Fed’s balance sheet has continued to grow over time and now Jerome Powell is telling us that it is time to go back higher. This entire situation is highly unusual. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello outlined it perfectly:* Stocks: all-time high* Home Prices: all-time high* Gold: all-time high* Money Supply: all-time high* National Debt: all-time high* CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed’s “target”* Fed: cut rates again today & will start QE on FridayBut as I wrote earlier this week, multiple deflationary forces are headed for a collision with the US economy. We have AI, robotics, tariffs, and a surge in deportations. Each would be worth watching on their own, but they collectively create the perfect storm for the Fed to fail at monetary policy.Add in weakness in the job market and it becomes clear why the Fed has to get interest rates lower. So now that we know QE is coming back, what will happen to asset prices?Remember, when the Fed buys bonds, it pushes bond yields down and encourages investors to move into riskier assets in search of higher returns. This “liquidity wave” makes borrowing cheaper, boosts confidence, and raises demand across financial markets. The biggest beneficiaries of QE are almost always risk assets. Stocks tend to rise because future earnings are discounted at lower rates, making companies appear more valuable. Bitcoin and other digital assets benefit because investors look for assets that outperform cash when money supply expands. Real estate goes up because mortgages become cheaper and investors chase hard assets. Long-duration assets—like tech stocks, growth companies, and venture-backed businesses—often rise the most because their value depends on future cash flows, which become more attractive when rates fall.So what assets suffer during QE?One of the big losers should be the U.S. dollar, which tends to weaken when more dollars are created, and short-term cash-like investments, which offer lower yields and become less attractive relative to risk assets. Traditional value stocks, commodities tied to economic stress, and defensive sectors may lag because QE shifts investor appetite away from safety and toward growth and speculation. Overall, QE is designed to inflate financial assets, and historically it has done exactly that.This means investors are about to be very happy.I took my analysis of QE’s impact one step further and I asked Silvia, the AI CFO that we built, to explain how the return of QE should impact my personal portfolio. She told me “the rate cuts are highly favorable for your portfolio, particularly your private investments and crypto. Your Opendoor position is also well-positioned to benefit from housing market recovery.However, the Fed’s signal of fewer cuts ahead means the easy gains may be behind us. The key risk is your extreme concentration in private investments, which makes you exceptionally sensitive to any Fed policy changes.Your portfolio is essentially a leveraged bet on lower rates — which has worked brilliantly so far, but requires careful monitoring as the Fed slows its cutting pace in 2026.”You can ask Silvia to analyze your personal portfolio by signing up for free by clicking here.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin vs The Fed: Who Wins in 2026?Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. In this conversation, we break down the Fed’s year-end shift toward rate cuts and easier liquidity, what it means for markets, and why bitcoin sentiment feels so negative despite strong performance. Jeff al

Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years. The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence. Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To Investors,The American economy is booming. At least that is what the GDP numbers are telling us. US GDP grew 3.8% year-over-year in Q2 and the Atlanta Fed is estimating Q3 growth to be between 3.5% - 3.8%.Historical context is important to understand the magnitude of these numbers. The average GDP growth for countries around the world is approximately 2.9% and the United States has outperformed for the last 80 years by growing GDP on average 3.2% annually from 1947 to 2025.So what is driving the good times right now?The answer is very simple: artificial intelligence. Adam Kobeissi shows that approximately 63% of all GDP growth is coming from AI-related spending. This means that without the AI CAPEX boom, the US economy would be in a significantly worse position.This AI-related spending can be best visualized by looking at data center spending since 2020. Kobeissi writes “spending on data centers in the US has tripled since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022. Spending on structures excluding data centers is down ~20% since the 2023 high. The strength of technology companies has created two “economies” in the US.”Speaking of two economies, compare the explosion in AI-related spending with the fact that US small business bankruptcies reached a record 2,221 year-to-date. This is up 83% over the last five years. These bankruptcies reflect high borrowing costs, cautious consumer spending, and economic pressures disproportionately affecting smaller businesses.This second economy also saw US employers announce 1.2 million job cuts in 2025, which is the second-highest in 16 years. These job cuts create a paradox where labor market deterioration coincides with the S&P 500 adding $17 trillion since April.Think of how crazy that is.Small businesses are going bankrupt and more than a million people lost their job, but US corporate profits hit record highs in Q4 amid strong demand and pricing power.If you looked up the definition of opposing outcomes, you would find these data points front and center as they expose inequality between corporate performance and worker outcomes. Plenty of people will use this information to rail against the system. They will stoke populism and claim that the only path forward is socialism.But we know that is not true. In fact, history shows us over and over again that economic incentives drive outcomes. Programs like Invest America will give people a stake in the capitalist system, while providing a financial head start for millions of young people.And the data shows that young people, particularly Gen Z, may be more enthusiastic about financial markets than you would think.Gen Z is starting to invest earlier than previous generations. About 54% of this cohort are beginning by age 21 compared to 31% of millennials and 27% of Gen X.Additionally, 63% of young adults view the stock market as an excellent wealth-builder. Gen Z favors stocks and millennials lean more into crypto as their primary investment. What is maybe most interesting, younger generations are nearly 3x more likely to hold speculative assets, including crypto-related stocks and day trading.So what is my big takeaway from all of this?There are pockets of great data in the economy and financial markets, but those big trends like AI are covering for areas of weakness. That is normal. There are people claiming everything is great or everything is horrible…both of the groups are right.But maybe the real lesson here is that we should trust the kids. They are enthusiastic. They are pouring capital into financial markets. They see value in AI, bitcoin, crypto, and robotics. These young people are predicting the future. We all should just make sure we are listening.Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementIs the Fed About to Trigger the Next Bitcoin Boom?I recently sat down with John Pompliano to dig into what’s really at stake at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting - whether the move should be 25 bps, 50 bps, or nothing at all.We breakdown how those decisions ripple through markets and why bitcoin’s unique monetary policy is becoming impossible for the world to ignore. Plus, discuss the shift as bitcoin miners move into AI infrastructur

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Plus, you earn 5% APY on your USD balance, buy bitcoin with zero fees, and off-ramp globally.Grow your bitcoin wealth— without ever selling your bitcoin.To investors,Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee start their two day meeting later today and the market is closely watching whether the Fed will cut interest rates or not.Polymarket odds have a 25 basis point cut at 95%, while no change sits at a 5% chance.If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, this will mark the third consecutive cut of the year (following 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in October) and serve as “insurance” against deepening labor market risks, even as inflation remains sticky above the 2% target. But I want to lay out the argument for the Fed to actually make a 50 basis point cut tomorrow. First, we know the labor market is softening, which is raising fears of a broader slowdown or recession if the situation is not addressed aggressively.Nonfarm payrolls added only 119,000 jobs in September. This is a sharp deceleration from post-pandemic averages and the report came in below expectations. Due to this deceleration, the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.4%.We have also seen layoff announcements surge to 1.17 million year-to-date. This is the highest level of layoff announcements we have seen since the 2020 pandemic. Simultaneously, hiring plans have reportedly hit their lowest level since the end of the Great Financial Crisis.Lastly, private-sector indicators like ADP jobs data and Challenger layoff reports have weakened even more in November. These trends suggest job growth is insufficient to match labor force expansion. The case for a 50 basis point cut related to the labor market is a larger cut would bolster employment and prevent a vicious cycle of reduced spending and further hiring freezes.But the argument for a 50 basis point cut doesn’t solely rely on the labor market.The government inflation metrics, which I believe to be wildly overestimating inflation, also provide support for a larger interest rate cut. Core PCE inflation is currently around 3% (about 1% above target), but disinflationary forces mitigate reacceleration risks. This should free the Fed to focus on their dual mandate employment goals.Critics claim goods prices remain sticky due to tariffs and fiscal stimulus, but falling crude oil prices, excess rental supply, and declining home prices introduce deflation risks that give the green light for deeper cuts in my opinion.On top of these converging forces, Fed projections and market-implied inflation show expectations anchored near 2%. This is obviously lower than consumer surveys which are projecting closer to 4% expectations, but we know the surveys are corrupted and likely further off than the market consensus. A 50 basis point cut would align with the Fed’s October statement committing to adjust policy “as appropriate if risks emerge,” so America’s central bank could easily frame the larger cut as targeted support rather than a policy pivot.So we have a weakening labor market and an inflation environment, but ultimately the decision to cut more than 25 basis points still has to be made by humans that make up the FOMC.Thankfully, there are a few common sense folks inside the building that seem to believe in the benefit of a larger cut. We know the FOMC is unusually divided right now and this could lay the foundation for a surprise aggressive cut.Governor Stephen Miran has recently dissented twice in favor of 50 basis point cuts. He argued in November it’s “appropriate” for a large December cut to counter labor risks. At the time, he said about the severity of the December cut “at a minimum 25 [basis points], but failing new information... 50 is appropriate.”Miran isn’t the only one. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have signaled support for looser monetary policy. Williams explicitly said he views a cut as “insurance” against labor slippage without jeopardizing inflation goals.So what do analysts think is going to happen inside the Fed?Analysts at Nomura forecast a dovish dissent from Miran pushing for 50 basis points, while others will have potential hawkish dissents against even a 25 basis point m

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Companies can now drive more profits with fewer employees, which is usually referred to as “good deflation.” This is when supply expands faster than demand.So where can we see this happening in today’s economy? We see example after example of productivity surges, cost compression, and quality enhancements. This fosters a “deflationary boom,” where goods and services become cheaper, enhancing consumer purchasing power and supporting GDP growth without overheating.AI is not only making companies more productive, but we are reaching a point where AI can write its own software. Eventually, technologists promise us that humanoid robots will be doing many things in society, including manufacturing and assembling more humanoid robots. This type of exponential productivity is hard to understand today. It is probably the most important deflationary trend though.Elon Musk, the founder of numerous multi-billion dollar companies at the intersection of AI and robotics, recently discussed how these technologies should create deflation and help address the national debt crisis.Take a listen:It seems like deflation is the obvious end state when Elon explains his view on these technologies in relation to the growth of America’s money supply.But Elon understands that AI and robotics are still not making a big enough impact on the economy to reach a deflationary state yet. Part of that gap is because of the ridiculous amount of money that is being printed by the US government, but another aspect is that AI and robotics remain in a relatively nascent stage. Elon’s estimation is that the US economy will hit a deflationary period in three years:Now Elon Musk is known for aggressive timelines and plenty of critics will argue that his estimation is off by a decade or more. I wouldn’t be so sure though. The pace of innovation, and the acceleration in adoption for AI and robotics, tells me the deflationary impact is much closer than most people realize.These technology trends are not happening in a silo either.The second big trend we have to pay attention to are demographics and proposed policy shifts. Both of these are curbing consumer demand and shrinking the labor supply, creating a potential “deflationary shock.” Economist David Rosenberg highlights three converging forces:* Aging workforce: The US median age is 42.3 (up from 36 in 2000), with the dependency ratio (the number of non-working people vs people of working age) rising to 37% by 2035, reducing spending on discretionary goods.* Immigration restrictions: Tighter policies limit population growth and low-wage labor inflows, suppressing household formation and service-sector demand.* Tariffs: broad tariffs (e.g., on imports) could slash consumer spending by raising costs, leading to a demand cliff.These three factors could weaken aggregate demand, which can cause prices to fall as businesses face oversupply and cut prices to clear inventory. On the positive side, lower demand might stabilize housing and services inflation, but it risks a vicious cycle of delayed spending and job losses, especially in retail and construction.Getting this balance right is very important. You want deflation without recession. This can only be done by creating positive supply-side factors rather than a collapse in demand. This is often called “good deflation” or “growth deflation,” where prices fall due to increased productivity, technological advancements, or efficiency improvements that boost output and real incomes.As one example, we are seeing this “good deflation” happen in energy costs over the last year. The decline in energy costs are due to increased domestic production, milder global demand, and efficiency gains from renewables and AI-optimized grids. US gasoline prices are projected to drop 3% (11 cents/gallon) in 2025 vs. 2024, with energy inflation at -1.6% year-over-year as of July 2025.These cheaper energy prices act as a broad disinflationary tailwind, including lower input costs for manufacturing and transportation. This boosts household disposable income (ex: sav

Today’s letter is brought to you by Lava!Lava’s bitcoin line of credit (BLOC) allows you to unlock your bitcoin’s purchasing power— instantly, flexibly, and securely— without selling your bitcoin.Now through the end of the year, Lava is offering a special promotional rate to all borrowers. Anyone who opens a BLOC this month will lock in a 5% interest rate, fixed for a full year. This is the last month to secure this rate for 2026.With Lava Refinance, you can easily bring your existing loans over to Lava and access the lowest fixed interest rates in the industry. Their white glove client services team will help you through the whole process.Lava allows you to borrow dollars in real time with no monthly payments, open terms, and full flexibility. Plus, you earn 5% APY on your USD balance, buy bitcoin with zero fees, and off-ramp globally.Grow your bitcoin wealth— without ever selling your bitcoin.To investors,There is wild speculation over who the next Federal Reserve Chairman will be. It has essentially become a finance soap opera. There was a period of time where the President was threatening to fire Jerome Powell. We saw the administration pressuring the Fed into cutting rates more aggressively. Housing Director Bill Pulte found reported mortgage fraud emanating from one of the Fed Governors, which led to a big legal dispute on whether the President could fire the Governor. And most recently, Stephen Miran replaced Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors after Kugler stepped down to return to academic life.This type of chaos is relatively unprecedented for America’s central bank. But the entire Trump administration has been relatively unprecedented, so maybe that makes the chaos part of the strategy.This brings us to the big question: who will be the next Fed Chairman?While we won’t know until the official announcement, President Trump seemed to give us a hint yesterday during a public appearance at the White House. Watch what he said about Kevin Hassett and the Fed Chairman speculation:Polymarket odds have Kevin Hassett as the dominant favorite (83%) to be the next Fed Chairman as well.So who exactly is Kevin Hassett and do we think this is a good choice?Kevin Hassett is a well-known supply-side economist. His policy views are focused on unleashing economic growth through tax cuts, deregulation, and accommodative monetary policy. A key component of his world view is that we should prioritize growth over very strict inflation control.Many people consider Hassett to be a “pro-growth” conservative. This is based on his argument that lower barrier to investment and production can raise wages, boost innovation, and enhance national security. None of those seem like bad ideas. The question is how do we get those outcomes? That is where the big debate and controversy lies.Now another aspect of Hassett’s views comes from a book he wrote in 2014 where he discusses a “4% Solution.” This idea is a roadmap for sustained 4% GDP growth through tax certainty, spending restraint, and energy deregulation. Again, this sounds a lot like Ronald Reagan’s supply-side ideas.Hassett has been pushing this idea recently as he argues booming consumption under Trump policies signals “lower-income optimism,” contrasting with what he calls overstated Biden-era stagflation.Here are some of Hassett’s key policy positions as summarized by Grok:Now one other interesting data point on Kevin Hassett, which was pointed out by Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen, is that Hassett “is a former Coinbase advisor who still reportedly holds a sizable stake in the cryptocurrency exchange.”So we have Trump fanning the flames of speculation. We have Kevin Hassett leaning into the supply-side economic policies. And we have market participants that are salivating over the idea of a new Fed Chairman who would bring interest rates down and drive more growth in asset prices. It ain’t over until the fat lady sings. But I say bring on Mr. Hassett and let him bring some common sense back to the central bank. Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin Drops 40% — Should We Be Worried?Anthony and John Pompliano break down the chaos inside today’s markets — from Bitcoin’s pullback to what’s really happening with the ETFs. We dig into why Vanguard suddenly capitulated, how a Trump-appointed Fed chair could reshape the entire macro landscape, and why political goggles are destroying people’s ability to think clearly about money. Plus, we unpack Michael and Susan Dell’s massive $6.25 billion donation to jump-start investing accounts for 25 million American kids — and what it means for the next generation of wealth-building.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsor* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin withou

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The return measures how much money they are making, while correlations measure how much pain they could feel if a recession or financial panic sets in.The former shows you upside and the latter illuminates potential downside.This is important right now because we are living through a regime change in asset correlations. Remember, we saw all assets (stocks, bitcoin, gold, etc) go higher together in 2021, they all fell in unison in 2022, and these assets collectively recovered very aggressively in the last few years. Just like a hand in a glove, these assets ebbed and flowed with each other.That is starting to change though. Take a look at the performance of various assets over the last 12 months:* S&P 500: +12%* Gold: +59%* US Treasuries (TLT): -1.25%* Bitcoin: -10%There are a few major takeaways from these data points. First, US treasuries continue to be a money-losing proposition over the short and long-term. TLT is down more than 40% over the last 5 years and it is negative over the last 12 months too. Second, stocks and gold have done very well in light of the return to monetary easing and misplaced inflation fears. Add in the AI boom for the equity market and it has been a great year for anyone holding these assets.In fact, Adam Kobeissi explains how strong the current stock market momentum is:“The S&P 500 has finished positive for 7 consecutive months, the longest streak since 2018. Over this period, the S&P 500 has gained +23.9%. This is also in line with the rallies seen in 2009, 2013, and 2021. Meanwhile, the Dow has seen 7 straight monthly gains, the longest streak since early 2018. With December historically one of the strongest months for the market, upside momentum is strong. The bulls are in control.”This brings us to bitcoin. The digital currency has been a big disappointment performance wise for many investors in 2025. The widely held belief was that bitcoin would continue the 4-year cycle, including a big blow off top in Q4. Instead, bitcoin is down double digits over the last year and to throw salt in the wound, bitcoin’s dismal performance has been against the backdrop of equities and gold doing so well.Look at this chart from Justin Gallum. It shows that gold has continued to track M2 global liquidity, while bitcoin departed in the opposite direction sometime in Q3 of this year.This brings us back to correlations. Investors want to add non-correlated assets into their portfolio so they can increase their risk-adjusted return and reduce the volatility of their investments without giving up potential returns.The general thesis is that various assets have different demand drivers. For example:* Stocks → driven by earnings & liquidity* Gold → driven by real rates & currency strength* Bitcoin → driven by liquidity, adoption, risk-on sentiment* Farmland → driven by crop yields & climate* Art → driven by collector demandThis is why you constantly hear financial advisors yell about diversified portfolios. They are playing a spreadsheet game that attempts to decrease risk without sacrificing returns. Of course, that is not what actually happens in the real world. You actually have to increase risk and volatility in a portfolio to optimize for total returns. You quite literally should be getting paid for the risk you are taking. But that is not how all investors think. They instead will look at a comparison of these various assets and see that gold’s one year performance is high, the one year volatility is low, and both the one and five year Sharpe ratios are superior. This is a dream for many investors. The question is whether the dream can continue or if nightmares are right around the corner. If you have been listening to me throughout the year, you probably know I am very optimistic about the next few years in financial markets.Public equities are poised to continue moving higher. The AI boom is very real and likely only beginning. The fact that our politicians can’t stop spending money means that gold and bitcoin will continue doing well. And maybe the only asset I am bearish on for the next 2-3 years is US treasuries, which seem to be designed to go down forever in value.Time will tell if I am right or not. But in the current moment, we are watching the breakdown of correlations. Assets are not moving in lock ste

Today’s Letter is brought to you by The Bitcoin Dolce Visa!You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months.To date, Bitizenship has facilitated €25M+ in Bitcoin-aligned residency investments.A compliant, Bitcoin-native pathway into one of Europe’s strongest economies.Private placements now open.1To investors,Yesterday Google became the fourth company in history to hit a $4 trillion market cap. They join Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft in this rare club of companies.Nvidia became the first company ever to reach $4 trillion in July of this year, which was quickly followed by Microsoft crossing the same threshold in intraday trading on July 31st. The only problem is that Microsoft closed below $4 trillion that day and the company didn’t surpass the milestone again until last month, which is when they finally closed the trading day above the magic number of $4 trillion.Apple followed closely behind and crossed the milestone in late October. This means we had never seen a single company reach a $4 trillion market cap, but all of a sudden we have four companies that pulled off the accomplishment in the last five months.Welcome to the new world of business and finance.The winners are worth more than you thought and the losers become irrelevant faster than you thought possible. So we must ask ourselves, what is driving the meteoric growth for these large tech companies?There are a few drivers of valuation. First, these companies are producing insane amounts of revenue.* Apple revenue: $416 billion (+6%)* Google revenue: $385 billion +13%)* Nvidia revenue: $130 billion (+114%)* Microsoft revenue: $281 billion (+15%)These numbers are ridiculous. Multi-trillion dollar companies growing double-digit percentages year-over-year and Nvidia more than doubling over the last 12 months.But this is not only a story of top line revenue growth. These four companies are producing real free cash flow too.* Apple FCF: $98 billion* Google FCF: $73 billion* Nvidia FCF: $60 billion* Microsoft FCF: $78 billionInvestors look at a lot of data points to measure a company’s value, but nothing is more important than free cash flow and these companies are delivering on that metric.This free cash flow is being used to do three big things: buyback shares, pay dividends, and make substantial CapEx investments in AI infrastructure. The first two uses of free cash flow are self-explanatory, but it is this third one that has everyone’s attention.Google is projected to spend around $90 billion on CapEx this year and a significant portion will go to AI infrastructure for their cloud, search, and YouTube businesses. Microsoft is planning to spend around $80 billion with a big focus on AI-data centers and cloud infrastructure for training models, along with deploying AI and cloud applications. Apple is taking a different approach. They plan to only spend $12.7 billion on CapEx, but majority of it is focused on first-party AI data center infrastructure and proprietary silicon. A big reason why Apple spends so much less on CapEx is their decision to use a hybrid model with third-party cloud providers for large compute demands. And finally, Nvidia. They don’t spend CapEx on data centers or other traditional AI infrastructure. Instead, Nvidia is one of the big winners from all the CapEx spend by these large companies, because analysts believe Nvidia will capture 25-35% of the total $405 billion in AI-related infrastructure spending globally.So this brings us back to the fact that four different companies have become $4 trillion companies in the last five months. That is only possible because of the large, addressable market of artificial intelligence. If you evaluate these companies through the rearview mirror of history, you may be worried about their future prospects. You will claim things are expensive or you will question the future durability of their demand.But if you evaluate these companies as the winners of the largest addressable market of our lifetime, then you realize it is much more likely that each of these four companies are undervalued relative to their future financial performance. Take humanoid robots as a single example. Wall Street banks see the industry growing into a multi-trillion dollar juggernaut over the next 25 years, including a compound annual growth rate of 40-100% for the foreseeable future. Companies are going to have to innovate on hardware and software to make those projections become a reality. This is noteworthy because humanoid robots are a net new industry. It didn’t previously exist, so that will be trillions of dollars in economic value up for grabs. And who do you think is going to capture some of it?The largest, fastest-growing, most innovativ

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That is why it was such a big deal when two Fed Governors dissented at the same time back in July of this year.Not one, but two Governors dissenting in the same meeting. We had not seen two Fed Governors dissent in the same meeting since 1993, so the rarity of the situation raised eyebrows. At the time, most people wrote off the anomaly as a politically driven outcome. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t seem to be a fan of Donald Trump and the two Fed Governors who dissented were Trump nominees.The Fed is supposed to be independent, but if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. The institution is made up of humans. Humans are biased. That bias doesn’t have to surface in a malicious or nefarious way, but every human is affected by their personal beliefs. That is how human nature works. No one, not even a central bank, is safe from it.But now we are getting information that those two Governor dissents in July may have been the warning sign of things to come. Bloomberg’s Catarina Saraiva published an article over the weekend titled Fed Watchers Turn to Vote Counting as December Rate Drama Grows. In the article, Catarina writes:“Division at the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent weeks, with officials staking out disparate positions ahead of the central bank’s December policy meeting — all while Chair Jerome Powell stays silent.The drama was amped up Friday when New York Fed President John Williams, sometimes seen as a proxy for the Fed chief, signaled his support for a rate cut after several other policymakers came out leaning against one.Powell himself hasn’t spoken publicly since the central bank’s last rate decision on Oct. 29. But a tally of recent remarks suggests the other voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are now nearly evenly split over what to do, all but ensuring some will vote against the Dec. 10 decision regardless of the outcome.”These dissents are a big deal because they show cracks in the central banks’ armor. You can think of the constant dissents, especially from Fed Governors, as a very negative signal. There is no consensus. There is no peace. These dissents also highlight how difficult and complex the current economic environment is. The recent disagreements are even more pronounced because Chairman Powell has done a good job driving consensus during his tenure, but that is all changing now. This situation reminds me of the book Lords of Easy Money, which is the best break down of the Federal Reserve’s actions during the Global Financial Crisis.The book is important because it lays out what many people are afraid to say in public: the Federal Reserve may have done more harm than good to the US economy in the last 20 years.The book’s description states:“If you asked most people what forces led to today’s unprecedented income inequality and financial crashes, no one would say the Federal Reserve. For most of its history, the Fed has enjoyed the fawning adoration of the press. When the economy grew, it was credited to the Fed. When the economy imploded in 2008, the Fed got credit for rescuing us.But here, for the first time, is the inside story of how the Fed has reshaped the American economy for the worse…The Lords of Easy Money skillfully tells the fascinating tale of how quantitative easing is imperiling the American economy through the story of the one man who tried to warn us.”That one man was Thomas Hoenig and he looks very smart in hindsight. So what did Hoenig do? His legacy is explained with the following:“In the aftermath of the 2007 recession, Hoenig was thrust upon a national stage as he spoke out frequently about the financial crisis and its causes, as well as the response to the crisis in terms of both regulatory changes and monetary policy. He cast the lone dissenting vote against the FOMC’s easy money policies at each of the eight FOMC meetings in 2010 and was troubled by the FOMC’s stated promise of keeping the federal fund rates at a historic low for “an extended period.”He also spoke out frequently about the large and systemically

Today’s Letter is brought to you by Bitizenship!You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months.To date, Bitizenship has facilitated €25M+ in Bitcoin-aligned residency investments.A compliant, Bitcoin-native pathway into one of Europe’s strongest economies.Private placements now open.To investors,Baron Rothschild once said “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” And we saw nothing but blood yesterday across financial markets. The S&P was down 1.5%, Nasdaq fell almost 2.5%, and bitcoin was down about 5% over the last 24 hours.Those are big numbers for these assets to fall in a single trading period. Interestingly, the S&P 500 actually displayed some very rare price action yesterday. The Market Stats writes “S&P gapped up more than +1.5% today, then closed down more than -1.5%. Before today, this only happened in October 2008 and April 2025.”As I recently heard Chris Burniske say, this roller coaster goes both ways. And the index showed us that yesterday, but now we are left to wonder why we are experiencing such abnormal volatility? Alex Kruger explains that we had “Extreme price action [yesterday], equities selling off on extraordinary volume and no news. VIX up to 28.”You don’t see that often. No specific catalyst, especially not an obvious, catastrophic one, yet stocks are falling materially in a single day. But this volatility makes sense when you realize the Fear and Greed Index was sitting at 6 last night. I don’t know if I have ever seen the index that low. Investors are scared. That is easy to recognize. But what are they scared of? That is a much harder question to answer. Is it the weak labor market data? Could it be the worries about AI CAPEX spending? Or maybe it is the belief that inflation is higher and the Fed won’t cut in December? No one knows. None of those things strike me as a reason for the S&P to drop 1.5% in a day and the Nasdaq to lose 2.5% in the same timeframe.But here is the thing, regardless of whether we have a specific reason, Rothschild told us to buy when blood in the streets. So how exactly do you do it?Famed investor Howard Marks explained his philosophy in a 2018 interview at Wharton:“My vision is that when the stuff hits the fan and there’s blood in the streets most people…say well we’re not going to buy until the knife stops falling, until the dust settles, until all the uncertainty has been resolved. But the trouble is that once that happens then the price will have rebounded.So we want to buy at a time of upset and while the knife is still falling and I think the refusal to catch a falling knife is a rationalization for inaction. It’s our job to catch falling knives, That’s how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.”Most people try to avoid catching the falling knife, but Howard Marks realizes that is not possible. This is the type of alpha you get from someone who has built one of the best investing careers in history. Straight contrarian takes that create billions of dollars in profit.You have to realize that Marks and Oaktree were always willing to buy assets on the way down, keep dollar-cost averaging lower, and then continue buying on the other side of the recovery. This type of conviction during a moment of chaos can only be built through strong analysis that highlights how undervalued an asset is. Most people aren’t built to be greedy when others are fearful.So where do we go from here?The short answer is that no one knows. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick pointed out earlier this week that the stock market very rarely peaks in the month of October, so history would suggest the bull market is not over yet. If the historical trend was wrong, this would only be the 7th time since 1950 that the market peaked in the month of October.Never say never though. Just when you think you have financial markets figured out, something will happen to make you question everything again. That is the beauty of investing. It is an intellectually stimulating game because the puzzle never ends.Now before I let you go, I am going to leave you with two charts from Ryan Detrick that will leave you a little more optimistic. The first is that the performance of the stock market on Thursdays has recently been horrible, so yesterday’s big drop is less surprising when you realize the intra-week cyclicality at play.In addition, Detrick points out “November historically bottoms on November 20th before the seasonal late month rally. What is more interesting is one the weaker parts of the year is Nov 18-20. Looks to have played out this year, now will the rally?”So yesterday was a blood bath in markets. The seasonality data suggests we could have the worst behind us. But no one can predict the futur

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As you would expect, bitcoin holders are very disappointed in the asset’s performance.Sentiment online is about as negative as I can remember it ever being. But ancedotes on the internet can be misleading. Reddit or X can be echo chambers. So what exactly is the data telling us?Here are five charts that explain what is happening.First, Zerohedge shows that “the last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower.” That data point is a big narrative violation. Everyone, including me, expected bitcoin to close the gap between bitcoin’s price and global liquidity. Since that hasn’t happened, many people are wondering if the market has fundamentally changed now that Wall Street has started adopting the asset.Regardless of the reason, no one can dispute that bitcoin has corrected 30% in the last month and a half. James van Straten explains this is the “third 30% correction for Bitcoin this cycle. Each correction, the time from peak to trough has compressed, this has accelerated the max fear sentiment. * August 2024 (Yen Carry): 147 days * April 2025: (Tariffs) 77 days * November 2025: 42 days”And this correction has now hit oversold territory. Coin Bureau shows “Bitcoin’s daily RSI has dropped to 26, its lowest since February, putting Bitcoin in oversold territory.”Quinten Francois highlights a similar dynamic is playing out with short-term holder supply in profit or loss. We are seeing more than 95% of all coins that have been acquired in the last 155 days are now underwater.This is obviously a fast way to drive fear into a market and tank sentiment. But markets don’t bleed forever. Eventually an asset gets cheap enough where it becomes attractive to investors. Maybe that is bitcoin at $90,000 per coin or maybe it is lower. I don’t know the exact level where we see the persistent bid return. However, Bitwise’s André Dragosch says bitcoin whales, those with more than 1,000 bitcoin, have suddenly started buying bitcoin aggressively at the current price level.So we have bitcoin’s price crashing even though global liquidity is surging higher. We have an asset that is now deeply oversold, which is enticing the bitcoin whales to start buying again. And we have a Fear and Greed index that is still registering below 20.This is the volatility, chaos, and uncertainty that forged bitcoiners over the years. Those who can keep their head straight when everyone else is losing their mind have traditionally done well. It is much easier said than done though.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementBitcoin Market Just ROTATED This Month - Here’s What’s NextJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.In this conversation, we break down the recent sell-off in asset prices, including why the absence of a clear catalyst matters, how it may change the way you think about your portfolio, and where Jordi believes capital could rotate over the next 12–16 months.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. 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Today’s Letter is Brought to You By Ledger x Moonpay!Security and simplicity don’t have to live in separate worlds. Experience the best of both with Ledger and MoonPay.Buy crypto instantly with the world’s most trusted hardware wallet, powered by MoonPay. Use your card, Apple Pay, PayPal, Venmo, or bank transfer directly in your Ledger Live.Together, Ledger and MoonPay make crypto simple and secure, combining cold storage protection with an effortless on-ramp trusted by millions in more than 180 countries. Your assets stay in your hands while MoonPay connects you to the entire crypto universe.Ledger is your vault. MoonPay is your key to open every digital door securely.Buy, store, and manage crypto, your way with MoonPay + Ledger.To investors,The market sell-off on Thursday and Friday last week has spooked many investors. They are wondering if the bull market in stocks is over? Are we on the cliff of a 75% drawdown in bitcoin? Will the doomsday pessimists finally have their day in the sun?These are all legitimate questions. But before we can pontificate about the future, we must analyze what is happening right now in the market. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, had one of the best explanations over the weekend. He writes:“There were two factors driving this market this year:* Easy money due to the resumption of rate cuts.* Continued optimism on the AI trade which was also helped by the easy money to fund debt related CAPEX build outs.Recently these twin pillars of the market have been called into question:* A December 10th rate cut seems to be a toss up for the Fed with four or more dissents likely even if there is a cut.* OpenAI talking about a government backstop forced investors to question whether a company that will generate run rate revenues of $20B exiting this year can fund $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments.* As a result of the above, high valuations for the market in general and especially some of the more speculative sectors reliant on easy money are now being called into question.As a result, this past week while the S&P was up 0.1%, the Magnificent 7 were down 1.1% while my AI index was down 3.2% due to the concerns above. The Russell 2000 in which over one-third of the names are unprofitable and therefore more reliant on easy money was down 1.8%.”Dan’s point about investors questioning the future is hard to argue with. You can see sentiment shifting in real-time online and market prices are the signals that never lie.The White House and President Trump’s administration is not one to sit on the sidelines while the fear-mongers run wild. White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett went on ABC and explained why the new economic policies under the current administration is actually helping Americans:“Purchasing power dropped by about $3,000 under Biden because the wages didn’t keep up with prices. Under Trump, it’s already gone up by about $1,200. We understand that people still feel the pain of the high prices, but we’re closing the gap fast.”Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sees an even bigger boom in purchasing power on the horizon. He was on television yesterday explaining to Maria Bartiromo how American citizens are poised to see their real purchasing power “substantially accelerate” in the first half of 2026. Take a listen:Energy prices are down. Interest rates are down. Those are both important facts when evaluating the economic policies that Bessent, Trump, Hassett and others have put into place. But my favorite part of Bessent’s conversation was his pledge to refrain from telling the American people how they are feeling. I remember when the All-In podcast guys interviewed Bessent earlier this year, they asked him if he believed the official economic data. Bessent said “no.” But more importantly, he explained that the data had been saying one thing over the last few years, but the American people were screaming from the rooftop about a different personal experience.In that situation, who are you going to believe? Do you listen to the data or do you listen to the people? Take Ritholtz’s Ben Carlson as an example. He wrote a great piece titled “What If Things Are Better Than They Seem?” In it Carlson points out the following data points:* 54% of Americans with incomes between $30k and $80k now have a taxable brokerage account and half of them have entered the stock market in the past 5 years.* Robinhood has something like 25 million customers. For half of them, it’s the first brokerage account they’ve ever opened.* Nearly 40% of 25-year-olds now have investment accounts up from just 6% in 2015.* Households with incomes below the median now account for one-third of JP Morgan customers moving money into investment accounts up from 20% in the 2010s.We’ve gone from housing being your biggest investment to the stock market. Just look at the increase in stock holdings for people under 40:Besides that being an insane chart of a 300% increase since 2020, my big takeaway is

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This issue will be one of the most important things for investors to pay attention to over the next decade.First, home affordability is impacting central bank monetary policy. This summer Jerome Powell said “the best thing we can do for the housing market is to restore price stability.” Take a listen:While Powell’s comments are true that inflation stabilizing would have a positive impact on housing, the current administration believes the artificially high interest rates are also contributing to an erosion of home affordability. This makes sense…if interest rates are high, mortgage rates are high. If mortgage rates are high, fewer people can afford to own a home.This position from the Trump administration has led to a very public pressure campaign from the President, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte to get rates lower. Jerome Powell and the Fed will claim they don’t succumb to pressure campaigns, but the Fed started cutting rates within weeks of the public pressure ramping up over the summer. Could it be a coincidence? Sure. Do I think the lack of home affordability in America is influencing Fed monetary policy? Absolutely. But home affordability is not only affecting monetary policy. We see in financial markets that companies in the real estate market have done very well as investors place bets on various companies’ ability to solve the housing crisis. Take Opendoor as one example. Retail investors have flocked to the stock and went activist on the old management team. The CEO stepped down shortly after the activist campaign started, the company hired the former COO of Shopify, and Opendoor is now going through a significant transition from an investment company to a software company.These various changes have led to the company’s stock price going from around $0.50 at the low this year to the closing price of $9.37 per share yesterday. Can Opendoor increase access to home ownership? We are going to find out. But I became an investor in the company this year and am genuinely proud to have my investment dollars helping to fund a company that is focused on helping more Americans own a home. I suspect there are many others like me who want to see this problem solved.This is an interesting dichotomy from the performance of various home builders. Lennar is down -0.2% year-to-date, D.R. Horton is up only 6%, and NVR is down nearly 9% in the same timeframe. PulteGroup is one of the rare standouts with a nearly 13% appreciation this year.As I mentioned at the start, the housing market is having an impact everywhere. It touches on technology, tariffs, and monetary policy. It is a complex market that will create lots of mispricings over time. Investors are trying to figure out who can create value over the long run and who can’t. But nowhere is housing having a bigger impact than in American politics.We saw Zohran Mamdani get elected New York City mayor while openly running as a socialist who promised free buses, rent freezes, and government-run grocery stores. President Trump and his administration have floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage to help alleviate the financial pressures preventing young people from buying a home. And Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte told me last week in a public interview that US home builders need to build more homes or the US government may take a deeper look at what federal dollars are flowing to these companies.Monetary policy. Financial markets. Politics. Everywhere you look, home affordability is driving part of the story. So how do we fix this? What is the solution?You build more housing. Yes, it is really that simple.It doesn’t even matter what type of housing you build. You can build affordable housing and the increased supply will drive down the cost of affordable housing. More supply means lower prices. Economics 101. But recent studies show that building luxury apartments also drive down housing costs in a city. The UPJohn Institute writes:“In cities with tight housing markets, policymakers have struggled to help lower-income residents afford homes. New research shows that just building new housing—even expensive h

Join us at the 3rd Annual Bitcoin Investor Week!The 3rd annual Bitcoin Investor Week is returning to NYC on February 9th - 13th. This is the largest gathering of serious bitcoin investors in the world. 2,500+ people are expected this year.Speakers include Jan van Eck, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, Anthony Scaramucci, Matt Cole, Caitlin Long, Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, Brandon Lutnick, Fred Thiel, and many others.TICKETS: https://bitcoininvestorweek.comTo investors,The bears have been in control of financial markets over the last few days. The S&P 500 is down 2.5% over the last 5 days. The Nasdaq is down 4% during the same timeframe. Bitcoin is down 5% over the last week. It has been a sea of flashing red numbers for a week.But have no fear, the Trump Put is here. The President of the United States of America decided to come out swinging on Sunday morning with a Truth Social post promising a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to every US citizen who isn’t a high-income earner.You didn’t think the President who measures the health of the US economy based on the stock market was going to sit around and let the bears take a victory lap, did you?Now will the tariff dividends happen? I have no idea. Polymarket odds are only at 15% right now.Another question is whether it matters if the tariff dividends actually happen? I don’t think so. The Trump Put already had its intended effect.It only took this one social media post to completely change the direction of travel for asset prices. Stocks and bitcoin have surged higher as enthusiasm returned to the market. This is the Trump Put. He has consistently made announcements that influenced the stock market at opportune times. You may remember his social media post saying “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” right before the market bottomed in April of this year. Trump backed down from his 100% tariff threat on China about an hour before futures opened on Sunday night a few weeks ago. And yesterday, amid all the panic and fear, the shining light on the hill was a simple promise from the leader of the free world to send out billions of dollars in stimulus checks.Are stimulus checks a good idea for the long term health of the US economy? Of course not. Does anyone care right now? Not really. People are too focused on the short-term fears of a stock bubble or a perceived incoming bitcoin bear market. Most people think if the President wants to hand out $2,000 to millions of citizens, especially right after a socialist agenda was voted into power in NYC due to affordability issues, then let the man hand out the money. It is complete disregard for the long-term strength of the economy and the devaluation of the US dollar.Remember, inflation can only be created in Washington DC and a fast way to increase the odds of high inflation is to hand out thousands of dollars to hundreds of millions of people. But this Trump Put is not the only thing likely to drive asset prices higher through the end of the year. We already know clarity on the China trade deal is coming. We also saw the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time in the same number of meetings. And now Polymarket is showing the odds improving of the government shutdown being resolved before November 15th.Sunday morning started out with a 62% odds of the shutdown being resolved after November 16th, but throughout the last 24 hours those odds plummeted to only 7%. A big reason for this change is the report last night that an agreement was reached in the Senate that would see enough Democrats step across the aisle and vote for the government to reopen.If we get the government shutdown behind us, you should expect stocks and bitcoin to go higher quickly. Opening Bell Daily’s Phil Rosen writes “The US has seen 21 shutdowns in the last 50 years and the S&P 500 has gained 1.2% one month later and 2.9% three months later on average. Stocks are almost always higher after a government shutdown.”Altcoin Gordon shows that bitcoin rallied 50% in 3 months coming out of the last government shutdown as well.So what is going to happen here? No one knows. We are all trying to predict an unknowable future. But what I have learned in the last 5 or 6 years is to trust the vibes. Trust the sentiment. Trust the animal spirits.Whatever you want to call it. How people feel about the market tends to determine how the market performs. And last week was a great example. The fear porn and negative takes were obvious. Folks were predicting the next bitcoin bear market or the end of the stock market rally. But this week is already different. We just needed the promise of some stimulus checks to get everyone giddy again. And if everyone is giddy, capital will flow into the market lifting asset prices.I am not the smartest guy in the world, but I know not to fade the Trump Put. We got the put yesterday morning. Asset prices are responding. And the bull market is back on again.Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony P

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It just depends where you are looking.Take corporate earnings as a positive example. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello writes “with 70% of companies reported, S&P 500 operating earnings are up 19% year-over-year, the 11th straight positive quarter and highest growth rate since Q4 2021.”Given how well corporations are doing, you would expect investors to be euphoric. Their portfolios are growing in value and stocks keep climbing higher. But in the surprise of the year, investors are incredibly negative right now.Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick points out investor sentiment currently sits at Extreme Fear even though “a few days ago the S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq-100 all closed at new monthly all-time highs.”It is crazy to think about stocks at all-time highs, yet investor sentiment in the toilet. Those are the type of ingredients that almost certainly guarantee we can’t be at a market top. The sentiment divergence is not exclusive to investors either. Jim Bianco shows consumer sentiment is falling rapidly as well. He writes “Red is the stock market. It’s going straight up. Rate cuts help. Blue is consumer sentiment, it’s going straight down and is near a multi decade low. Inflation (affordability) is driving this measure lower. Rate cuts hurt.”Lets go back to investors for a second though. Ryan Detrick goes on to explain that the market is overwhelmed with bearish investors. They are everywhere. He writes “AAII bulls minus bears is -11.1% in 2025. Only 3 other times has this ever been -10% and all happened in bear markets (1990, 2008, and 2022). Incredibly, bears outnumber bulls by 11.1% in ‘08, the exact same level as in 2025 so far.”But the dichotomy gets even weirder when you dig deeper into the data. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was asked about the US economy last night in an interview and he said “Which way is the stock market going? Up, up, up! Which way is the economy going? 3.8% last quarter... the economy is on fire because Donald Trump’s economy is one that says... BUILD IN AMERICA.”Lutnick is not wrong. But contrast that with the jobs data that came out this morning. CNBC’s Jeff Cox explains:“Job cuts for the month totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003. This has been the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.”So the economy is booming but the job market is deteriorating. Stocks are flying higher, yet sentiment is succumbing to gravity. The obvious culprits are artificial intelligence and interest rate cuts. Both trends help corporations and asset owners at the expense of the average citizen who has little to no investment assets.I don’t know what the solution to this problem is. The complexity here is hard to overstate. You can’t allow corporations and asset owners to be destroyed because job losses will only accelerate. You can’t continue to have half of the country being financially destroyed due to technology, economic conditions, and a lack of financial education.This may be one of the great challenges of our time. We have to walk a tight rope between these opposing forces. A potential solution is to get more Americans invested in the capitalist system. Programs like Invest America, which wants to fund a stock brokerage account for every baby born in America, could have a positive impact. The issue with a program like that is it will take decades to see the impact.It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pursue the program. We just can’t count on it as a magic solution today. One idea I have been thinking through is a “Stock Dividend” to the American people. It could work as a potential tax rebate. The government would determine an amount to be returned to every citizen, but rather than pay in cash, the government would deliver shares of the S&P 500 or Nasdaq.There are a lot of nuances that would have to be figured out. And we have to remember a large portion of the country doesn’t pay federa

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A straight rout across the board in favor of the Democrats.Half of the country is waking up happy this morning and the other half is left wondering how we got to this point. But put politics aside for a second.There is a very important finance and economics story smacking us in the face. The voice of the people was heard last night. They are clearly telling the world that rent is too high, groceries are too expensive, the system is not working for them, and change is needed.You can see these problems clearly in the data.First, the difference in sentiment between the people who make more than $100,000 and those who make less than $100,000 is widening. You can see this clearly getting worse since the summer of 2022 and accelerating in 2025.You can call it a k-shaped economy. You can call it a bifurcation. No matter what you call it, the economy is being split into two groups: those that own assets and those that don’t.This k-shaped economy related to sentiment passes through to consumer spending habits. We know that the top 10% of earners account for half of US personal spending.But when you dig into consumer prices of every day items like groceries, you can see a very big problem. Adam Kobeissi writes “US grocery prices have risen +5.3% YoY as of July 2025. To put this differently, if a family spends ~$1,000 a month or $12,000 a year on groceries, this marks an average annual increase of +$636.”Home affordability doesn’t offer a much different story. Kobeissi continues by showing “it would take a -38% drop in home prices OR a +60% JUMP in household income JUST for affordability to go back to 2019 levels. You must now make ~$113,000/year to afford the MEDIAN home in the US.”The problem is only going to get worse in the short-term too. For example, artificial intelligence is driving a wedge into the job market. You see the people who are using AI continue to grow revenue and profits, while the working class is watching job openings fall off a cliff as AI begins replacing many jobs.So the financial answer is for people to acquire assets. Bill D’Alessandro shows this chart of wage growth vs. asset appreciation. He says “you’ve got to be converting your time/wages into assets. Best time to start was 20 years ago, second best time is now.”So when I think about what is happening here, you have to believe multiple things are true. The people are voicing their opinion for a reason. Affordability in America is way too high. We have to bring that down and provide relief for millions of people. You also have to see that the financial answer is for more people to own assets, but understand why that is nearly impossible to get people to do. Our schools don’t even teach financial education, let alone most young people having the ability to understand investing.At the same time, the rise in popularity for dumb ideas like socialism is a response to the affordability crisis. If you don’t have a financial solution, you immediately look for a different release value. It is easy to get swindled by a charismatic guy who promises a bunch of free things, especially when that guy is explicitly acknowledging the pain that you are experiencing. It doesn’t make the socialist ideas good. But it is understandable why the message resonates. Over the coming weeks I will explore the various ways this change is going to impact financial markets, but I will leave you with one of the important truths I have come to believe: the voice of the people will ultimately be heard.And their message was crystal clear last night.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementRecession Odds, Bitcoin’s Future & NYC Mayor ElectionAnthony and John Pompliano break down today’s markets — from Scott Bessent’s U.S. outlook and Tom Lee’s bullish call to Jordi Visser’s take on Bitcoin’s “IPO moment.” They also cover job growth, mega themes, the New York City mayoral race, and Anthony’s latest thoughts on bitcoin and stocks.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LT

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Before we discuss whether we are in a bubble or not, it is important to understand what is actually happening in the economy.The best description I have seen comes from Adam Kobeissi when he wrote about the AI construction boom:“The Dodge Momentum Index surged +60% YoY in September, to the highest on record. This index serves as a leading indicator of non-residential construction, tracking projects that typically move from planning to groundbreaking within 9–12 months. The jump was led by a +75% YoY spike in institutional projects such as healthcare and public buildings, and a +53% jump in commercial activity driven by data centers and retail. The index also rose +3% MoM in September, extending a powerful uptrend after +5% in August and +21% in July. In other words, the surge in AI-driven data center projects is set to translate into a powerful construction boom across the US in 2026. AI’s impact on the real economy is accelerating.”Goldman Sachs and Mike Zaccardi explain a big reason for this explosion is that mega-cap companies continue to exceed expectations on their AI CAPEX spending.So whether we are in a bubble or not, we know that companies are sinking insane amounts of money into building data centers and power generation. In fact, the investment in power generation is very important to pay attention to because the market is realizing that power, not chips, are the limiting factor for hyperscalers. Don’t take my word for it though. Here is Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella explaining the lack of power supply on a recent episode of the BG2 podcast:It is crazy to hear the CEO of a multi-trillion dollar company saying he has the compute capacity, but he doesn’t have the data centers and power supply to plug them into. This completely changes the way that investors will view the AI market.Strategist Shay Boloor explains:“The real constraint is not compute but power & data center space. This is exactly why access to powered data centers has become the new leverage point. If compute is easy to buy but power is hard to get, the leverage moves to whoever controls energy & infrastructure. Every new data center that $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META & $ORCL are trying to build needs hundreds of megawatts of steady power. Getting that energy online now takes years which means the players who locked in power early & built vertically across the stack are the ones with real control. Hyperscaler growth is no longer defined by how many GPUs they can buy but by how quickly they can energize new capacity.”Now Shay wrote this analysis before this morning’s mega announcements of energy deals with the hyperscalers. VanEck’s Matt Sigel points out “$15 billion in Bitcoin mining deals this morning. Sector market cap: ~$65 billion. Imagine if oil majors announced deals worth 20% of their market cap in one day. That’s how fast AI is rewiring the global energy stack.”The two deals this morning come from IREN and CIFR, two bitcoin mining businesses that are making the transition into AI data center providers. IREN announced a $9.7 billion AI cloud contract with Microsoft and CIFR announced a $5.5 billion deal with Amazon’s AWS.These mega deals prove the point that Satya Nadella was making. There is a significant supply-demand imbalance for data centers and energy production. You don’t have to be Albert Einstein to realize that the companies who solve this problem will create significant value for their shareholders.It is hard to have a bubble in AI when every person you talk to is yelling from the rooftop that demand is drastically outpacing supply. Bubbles only pop when a market gets saturated with supply and there are no buyers left. We are very, very far away from that moment. It doesn’t mean we won’t get there at some point in the future, but it does mean you can stop listening to the market crash predictors right now.Even the President of the United States believes “everybody wants AI because it’s the new internet. It’s the new everything. It’s one of the biggest things anyone’s ever seen. So everyone wants it. Yeah. I mean, the only problem is if you don’t get it.”I

Join us at the 3rd Annual Bitcoin Investor Week!The 3rd annual Bitcoin Investor Week is returning to NYC on February 9th - 13th. This is the largest gathering of serious bitcoin investors in the world. 2,500+ people are expected this year.Speakers include Jan van Eck, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, Anthony Scaramucci, Matt Cole, Caitlin Long, Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, Brandon Lutnick, Fred Thiel, and many others.TICKETS: https://bitcoininvestorweek.comTo investors,Uncertainty is a cancer that can spread fear through a market. It can kill optimism quickly because as the uncertainty mounts, the flow of capital slows and asset prices lose momentum. It is this loss of momentum that becomes dangerous to bull markets.Thankfully, we got extreme clarity yesterday on two major topics that investors care about: interest rates and our China trade relationship.First, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25 basis points during the conclusion of this week’s meeting. The decision was not a surprise, but some of Powell’s commentary around the decision was noteworthy.The Fed Chairman still believes there is potential risk to rising inflation, which frankly has failed to show up as he previously predicted, and he believes there is continued pressure on the labor market. His exact words were “risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside.”That is central banker speak for “we are watching the market but there is not explicit problem I can point to and scare you with at the moment.”At another point Jerome Powell was asked about the potential of a bubble in AI and the comparison to the 1999 tech boom. His answer was interesting:Business models. Revenue. Profits. You know, things that real companies have! This rational take from the leading central banker will hopefully quell some of the doomsday predictions of a massive bubble in AI.So the good news coming out of the Fed press conference yesterday is that rates were cut once again. The 25 basis points decrease brings cheaper capital into the market, incentivized more research and development in the corporate sector, and should result in asset prices continuing to go higher over the coming weeks.But the interest rate cut was not the only clarity we received yesterday.Last night we got word from President Trump’s visit to Asia that the United States has struck an agreement with China. This agreement is widely being reported as a tariff truce that is aimed at easing trade barriers the two countries have put on each other in recent months. Given the fact that tariffs were not fully removed, I don’t know if I would call it a truce. I would likely call this something more akin to a de-escalation when it comes to tariffs.Regardless of the specific wording, the important thing is that an agreement has been reached. Both the United States and China can claim victory in the outcome, which is an important component too.So what exactly was agreed to? Bloomberg explains the main components of this agreement include the US cutting tariffs on Chinese goods related to fentanyl down to 10%, China will buy a “tremendous amounts” of US soybeans and other farm goods, China will pause sweeping controls on rare earth exports, the US will roll back expansion of restrictions on Chinese companies, the US will extend a pause on some reciprocal tariffs for a year, and China will work with the US to resolve issues related to TikTok.It seems that both sides gave something in the negotiation, which is how a good deal gets done. Everyone has to walk away feeling like they could have gotten a slightly better deal. But the leaders of both countries seemed to be pleased with the meeting. Even President Trump described it as a 12 out of 10 and had many nice things to say about President Xi. This brings us back to how investors should perceive these events. It is nearly impossible to see interest rate cuts and a China agreement as a bearish catalyst that will lead to lower asset prices. The exact opposite is likely to happen. The United States is open for business and we have been running around the world striking trade deals that increase the amount of capital being invested in our country.Add in the fact that our central bank realizes they have to get the cost of capital down, which is why they continue to cut rates, and you have a clear picture of the ingredients needed for a bull run to continue. Clarity brings capital. Capital brings higher prices. Higher prices brings momentum. And momentum is really hard to stop once it gets going. The bull run is underway. The pessimists are wrong. This train won’t stop any time soon, so make sure you don’t poison your brain with fear porn.We are cleared for lift off. The next few weeks and months should be a lot of fun. Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementWall Street Gives Credit Rating To Strategy For First TimeJeff Park is the Partner and Chief

Join us at the 3rd Annual Bitcoin Investor Week!The 3rd annual Bitcoin Investor Week is returning to NYC on February 9th - 13th. This is the largest gathering of serious bitcoin investors in the world. 2,500+ people are expected this year. Speakers include Jan van Eck, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, Anthony Scaramucci, Matt Cole, Caitlin Long, Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, Brandon Lutnick, Fred Thiel, and many others.TICKETS: https://bitcoininvestorweek.comTo investors,I published a conversation with Coinbase’s Head of Consumer and Business Products yesterday. In the recording, Max Branzburg mentioned a “DeFi mullet,” which was described as the “easy Coinbase experience in the front and DeFi in the back.”This comment got me thinking about what is happening at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance. First, it is clear that “crypto” is not going to be a thing in a decade. Everything will be “finance” and you won’t know the difference between centralized or decentralized infrastructure.This is similar to what happened with the internet. There used to be internet companies and non-internet companies. People used to be considered cutting edge if they were using the internet, but now you would be deemed an idiot if you didn’t use the internet. The same thing is happening with crypto.Everyone from the new fintechs like Robinhood or the legacy firms like Blackrock are realizing they have to embrace this new technology in a variety of ways. No one calls Blackrock a bitcoin company and I don’t think many investors would consider Robinhood a crypto company. But those details don’t change the fact that each company is using this new technology to gain an advantage in the marketplace and better serve their customers.This decreasing importance of the “crypto” industry is a good sign. It means technology is becoming standard and expected. You can see the convergence happening perfectly with exchanges. Coinbase, Kraken, and many other crypto-native exchanges are racing to list public equities via tokenized securities. The fintechs like Robinhood, Public.com, eToro, and WeBull are quickly adding various crypto assets to their platform. Even ICE, CBOE, and Nasdaq are all finding various crypto products or companies to list on their exchanges.You aren’t going to have crypto and non-crypto exchanges. The end game is for exchanges to list public equities, crypto assets, and prediction markets all in one place. This is why Coinbase is publicly saying they want to be the “everything exchange,” while ICE is investing billions of dollars in prediction markets and crypto products.These firms are battling to be the future dominant venue for investors to buy and sell assets, regardless of their structure. The winner will capture tens of billions of dollars in profits. No wonder these exchanges are acting like they are in an all-out war for market share.But exchanges are not the only place this is happening.It seems like every day brings new headlines about stablecoins being adopted by the legacy finance players. Yesterday, we saw Coinbase announce a new partnership with Citi to “make on and off-ramping crypto easier for Citi’s institutional clients.” As part of the announcement, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said “It’s not a debate anymore - crypto and stablecoins are the tools that will update the global financial system.”I think it is hard to argue with his logic at this point.Large financial institutions like Citi are not the only ones trying to create shareholder value by embracing stablecoins in the legacy system. Western Union says they are piloting stablecoin settlement rails to speed up cross-border payments and cut reliance on SWIFT.Their CEO Devin McGranahan says the company “sees stablecoins as an opportunity, not a threat.” That seems like a fair perspective to have, but the real question is whether these legacy companies will be able to move quickly enough to avoid disruption.Based on the fact that Western Union’s stock is down more than 50% over the last 5 years, it is more likely the market believes Western Union is going to be one of the carcasses left on the playing field by stablecoins and crypto-native payment rails.But here is the thing about stablecoins, right now you have to be a crypto-native to use these assets. You need to know what a wallet is. You need to know the difference between USDT, USDC, USDe, and many others. You have to understand how wallet addresses work, along with making technical decisions like which blockchain to leverage for your transaction.Normal people aren’t going to do any of that. They want to simply send, receive, and hold US dollars. This is where the “DeFi mullet” comes into play. The interface has to be familiar and trusted, while the infrastructure and plumbing can be completely upgraded.Victor Yaw has a great way to frame what is likely to happen. He writes “stablecoins will disappear into the plumbing of finance. Money will move across borders the way data moves across networks: ins

You’re invited to ResiDay 2025, a conference for today’s top leaders in residential real estate.Join myself and ResiClub Founder Lance Lambert on Friday, November 7th in New York City for a one-day conference bringing together the housing market’s top investors, developers, builders, lenders, and brokers. Expect top-tier speakers, networking with industry leaders, and data-driven conversation around the next decade of housing.Speakers highlights include…* Bill Pulte, Director, FHFA (Virtual)* Sean Dobson, Founder & CEO, Amherst* Jim Jacobi, President, Parkland Communities* Kaz Nejatian, CEO, OpenDoor (Virtual)* Raunaq Singh, Founder & CEO, Roam* Allan Merrill, Chairman & CEO, Beazer Homes* John Rogers, Chief Data & Analytics Officer, CotalityTickets are limited, secure your spot here: https://luma.com/ResiDay2025To investors,Asset prices love responding to market catalysts. Sometimes catalysts are telegraphed and other times they come as a surprise. Take the Federal Reserve’s planned meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.Every investor knows it is coming. It has been marked on calendars all year. Most investors expect the central bank to cut interest rates. In fact, Polymarket is currently showing a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut.Asset prices like cheaper capital because investors push further out on the risk curve. Lower rates signal a continued tailwind for stocks and bitcoin. And it is not just the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions that matter in this regard.Bitwise’s André Dragosch writes “the number of global rate cuts [in the] past 24 months is already higher than after Covid but bears still think bitcoin has already peaked.”It is crazy to see 312 interest rate cuts around the world over the last 24 months when you realize the Fed’s interest rate is still set at 4% or higher. There is a lot of room to go for America’s central bank to bring rates back down to 1-2%.But the interest rate cuts this week are only part of the story. Everyone knows those cuts are coming, but what we didn’t know until this weekend was how likely a US-China trade deal was.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did the media rounds Sunday morning and wanted to make sure the world knew a trade deal is coming. Bloomberg writes:“Top trade negotiators for the US and China said they came to terms on a range of contentious points, setting the table for leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a deal and ease trade tensions that have rattled global markets.After two days of talks in Malaysia wrapped up Sunday, a Chinese official said the two sides reached a preliminary consensus on topics including export controls, fentanyl and shipping levies.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking later in an interview with CBS News, said Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “is effectively off the table” and he expected the Asian nation to make “substantial” soybean purchases as well as offer a deferral on sweeping rare earth controls. The US wouldn’t change its export controls directed at China, he added.”So what should we expect to happen if the US-China trade deal gets announced? Jordi Visser explains how bullish it should be for stocks and bitcoin:Investors like certainty. They want predictability. If they get clarity in the US-China trade negotiations, markets are going to take off higher. Don’t believe me? Scott Bessent’s commentary from the weekend has already sent stocks and bitcoin inching higher as investors anticipate the big trade deal confirmation.See here is the thing people don’t want to admit: the world operates in the middle of extreme positions. It is true that US and China are locked in economic competition. They both wish they could decouple. But that is not reality. These two countries depend on each other. So the trade deal is going to get done.And markets know this. The market also knows rates are going to come down and the government will never stop printing money. Each of these three things are bullish for stocks and bitcoin.But I do have one surprise for you. Gold’s explosive move in the last few months probably signals we are unlikely to see further price appreciation through the end of the year. In fact, we are already seeing gold sell off over the last two weeks and I think that could continue for the rest of 2025.In that scenario, Bizyugo points out the bitcoin mania started in 2020 when gold peaked. There is no guarantee we will see a repeat of 2020, but the macro environment is setting us up almost perfectly. I would be surprised if bitcoin didn’t run into the end of the year. And stocks will be side-by-side the digital currency.The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq are all at record highs. Things in motion stay in motion. And I am guessing the party is just getting started. Hope everyone has a great start to your week. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementProof That Bitcoin & AI Are Going Much HigherJordi Visser is a macro investor with

Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years.The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions.Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence.Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To investors,The United States of America is the first to do a lot of things. We were the first to write and ratify a Constitution. We were first to put a human in space. We were the first to land on the moon. We were the first to create a commercial nuclear power plant. We were the first to ratify important amendments on human rights like free speech and due process.And this week America added a new “first” to our resume. The US national debt just crossed $38 trillion, which makes us the first country in human history to have accumulated this much debt.Adam Kobeissi writes “Total US debt officially crosses above $38 trillion for the first time in history. This marks a +$500 BILLION jump this month, or +$23 billion per day.”Give yourself a round of applause everyone.Oh wait, this isn’t a milestone we should be celebrating. In fact, we should be appalled that our country’s leadership has lacked the financial discipline to avoid this scenario.A big driver of the catastrophic destiny we have been pre-ordained to is our addiction to money printing. Jesse Myers writes “The money printer hasn’t run this hot since COVID. Global M2 money supply now ~$137 trillion. It was $129 trillion just 6 months ago.”Lawrence Lepard points out “12% annualized growth rate in global M2. Far cry from the Fed’s 2% target and they haven’t really even turned on the printer yet.”I don’t see the national debt problem going away in my lifetime. This means the currency will be debased to avoid default, so our politicians on both sides of the aisle are essentially sticking our children with the bill.It is a horrible, no good situation. The only thing I know to do is opt-out of the broken system with some portion of my economic value. The higher the national debt goes, the higher bitcoin will go. And it doesn’t appear either of them will stop any time soon.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementWhy The Bitcoin Bull Market Is Not Over With Jeff ParkJeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this episode, we unpack why Bitcoin isn’t the bubble — it’s the pin. 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Today’s Letter Is Brought To You By A Golden Visa for the Bitcoin-Forward Investor!Bitizenship helps Bitcoiners secure EU residency and a path to Portuguese citizenship, without abandoning their long-term thesis.Bitizenship Helps You:✔ Unlock visa-free travel across Europe✔ Secure residency with minimal physical presence✔ Maintain Bitcoin exposure through a regulated structure✔ Set up a future-proof Plan B for your family✔ Gain one of the world’s strongest passports in 5 yearsTime-Sensitive Update: Portugal may pass new citizenship rules within the near future, doubling the timeline to 10 years.Lucky for you, there’s time to lock in the current law if you act now.To investors,The finance industry runs on economic data. Investors around the world consume various data points, draw conclusions from the data, and make capital allocation decisions based on that data.But what if the data being consumed by investors is inaccurate? What if the data is politically biased?It would essentially guarantee misguided investment decisions are being made. Bad inputs lead to bad outputs. You can’t make good decisions if you are basing those decisions on inaccurate or biased data.This brings us to a bombshell discovery of provably false and politically biased data by Fundstrat and Tom Lee. In a recent report to clients, Fundstrat pointed out how the University of Michigan consumer survey has become completely unreliable due to a sharp rise in political bias.Before I cover that bias and inaccuracy, let me explain the University of Michigan survey. The survey is described as “a monthly survey that measures American consumers’ attitudes toward the economy, personal finances, and their readiness to spend. Considered a leading economic indicator, the survey, which has been conducted since 1946, uses a minimum of 500 phone interviews and provides insights into consumer optimism or pessimism. The results are used to predict economic trends, including consumer spending and the overall health of the economy.”Now lets go back to the political bias and inaccuracies. We have known for awhile there are differences in political affiliations when it comes to inflation expectations. Fundstrat shows that here:Democrats expect inflation to be 5.3% a year from now, while Republicans believe it will be 1.5%. Of course, the truth is likely somewhere in-between. But this political difference is not a problem because it is clear, transparent, and easily understood. You can summarize the difference as politics breaking the economic brains of those being surveyed.Is it dumb? Of course. Would I accuse the University of Michigan of tipping the scales in any way? No, not at all. But Fundstrat takes their analysis a step further. They show that the University of Michigan survey has been corrupted over the last two years. They used to survey Republicans and Democrats on a 50/50 basis for years, but there was an explicit change in early 2024.The University of Michigan survey has shifted left on the political aisle. Rather than 50/50 survey pool, the surveyed group is now 65% Democrats and the trend is only getting worse. You can see in the chart how absurd the change has been.So what is the big deal?If I am being nice, the University of Michigan has suddenly screwed up their data collection methodologies. Frankly, I find that hard to believe given how well they stayed unbiased for years. If I put on my conspiratorial hat, we need to ask why University of Michigan is manipulating the data and putting their fingers on the scale?I will leave it to each of you to decide whether you think the data issues are intentional or not.And to provide the most robust analysis possible, here is a 4-minute clip of Tom Lee talking with me about this ridiculous issue:The economic data is corrupted. It is politicaly biased. If you are counting on that data to make investment decisions, it is going to be very hard to make good investment decisions moving forward.I am looking at ways to address this issue for myself and our investing activities. As I find solutions, I will share them with all of you.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementGold Is Winning But Bitcoin Will Win BiggerAnthony and John Pompliano discuss everything happening across the markets — bitcoin, gold, stocks, the Fed, and where things could be headed next. Are we going up or down? Should investors be worried or getting excited? And why retail investors might actually have an edge over institutions right now.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! 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Today’s Letter is brought to you by Arch Public!Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years.The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions.Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence.Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.To Investors,Peter Lynch is one of the greatest investors to ever live. While at Fidelity Investments, he averaged a 29% return and managed the best performing mutual fund in the world. So it is noteworthy that one of his most famous quotes is “if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you have wasted 10 minutes.”Pretty good one-liner, right?The reason Lynch believed macro economics was noise is because he managed money during a time where everyone was constantly worried about monetary policy, geopolitics, and various topics outside financial markets. His strategy was simply to buy shares in great companies and wait for the companies to increase in value.It wasn’t rocket science. But here is the thing, the stock market has significantly changed over the last 50 years. We went from a market where ignoring macro economics increased your likelihood of success to the modern market where paying attention to macro economics is all that matters.Let me give you an example. Former Pimco CEO Mohammed El-Erian wrote yesterday “Forgive me for sounding like a broken record, but today’s market action is so illustrative of something I’ve been trying to convey for a while now. The notable thing about gold today isn’t just that its price hit yet another record high, but how it has done so: Gold is surging on the same day that US stock indices have over 1%. This simultaneous climb in both a classic safe haven and risk assets is a powerful illustration that the drivers of the current gold rally are different from historical patterns.”Safe haven assets and risk assets are both pushing higher at the same time. That isn’t supposed to happen. It violates everything an investor was taught in their Economics 101 class. So what is going on here?Holger Zschaepitz explains the different sides of the debate:“Despite the Nasdaq 100 hitting a new all-time high, market sentiment remains unusually split, a divide also reflected in Bitcoin’s wild swings. Goldman Sachs sees two ways to read this: Cynics view it as a fragile equilibrium, where even a small shock could end the rally. Optimists see it as the hallmark of a healthy bull market – one that keeps climbing the proverbial wall of worry.”So who is right? Should we be worried about the concurrent rise of risk assets and safe haven assets? Well, let’s turn back to Peter Lynch.He once said “I’ve studied the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and I don’t see anywhere that we have to have a recession every four years. I don’t see why you can’t have a decent environment for years and years.”Spoken like a true optimist if you ask me.My personal opinion on why all asset prices are going higher boils down to the macro environment. Markets are forward-looking and everyone has become convinced that the government won’t stop printing money, the national debt is going to continue accelerating higher, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world have to cut interest rates in the coming months, and artificial intelligence is making companies more profitable with less employees.Those four factors are causing investors to pour capital into almost all asset classes. They understand holding cash and bonds will likely be a losing trade. You can buy stocks, bitcoin, gold, real estate, or collectibles. The micro decisions are not nearly as important as the big decision to convert fiat dollars into some kind of investment asset.People are not going to wait around for the currency debasement and persistently high inflation to wreck their portfolio. They are positioning themselves to benefit from the pain on the horizon.Add in the fact that we are sitting in the middle of October, which means the year end chase is underway, and it becomes obvious that the bull market is not ending this month.Risk assets and safe haven assets are going to continue performing. In this environment, some investors want to play offense and some want to play defense. But the number of market participants has expanded so rapidly that now there is enough capital for both types of assets to appreciate as money sloshes around the system.Price appreciation won’t be a straight line to the sky. There will be corrections along the way. But as Peter Lynch advised us, “in the stock market, the most important organ is the stom

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The narrative coming into 2025 was gold is a great asset, but it does a better job preventing losses in your portfolio than it does driving outperformance. This is where bitcoin came in.The decentralized asset was pitched as a digital gold, or as I have previously called it “gold with wings.” The idea has been that bitcoin boasts the same sound money principles as the precious metal, but bitcoin’s unique properties (including the finite supply, the bitcoin halving feature, and the relatively young life since inception) should ensure bitcoin would continue outperforming gold.That hasn’t happened in 2025 though.In fact, gold has appreciated about 60% year-to-date, which is the best performance in nearly a half century. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello highlights “gold is now the best performing major asset class over the last 20 years with an annualized return of over 11%.”This performance, particularly the last 11 months, has driven central bank’s allocation to gold significantly higher. Charlie writes “gold now accounts for over 20% of global central bank reserves, the highest share we’ve seen in nearly three decades.”This central bank demand is important because it overcame the fact that US retail investors have essentially been net sellers of gold and silver since the big rally in price started in March 2024.But here is the part of the story that is confusing many investors — bitcoin and gold have historically traded in tight correlation. When gold has gone up, bitcoin has followed approximately 100 days later. These two assets benefit from the same tailwinds of higher national debts, undisciplined monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. In response to these issues, investors prefer to allocate larger percentages of their portfolio to sound money assets. Assets that are outside the legacy system and assets that no one can create more of.So why is gold responding to the recent global developments, but bitcoin has lagged? Is it as simple as central banks have a lot of money, so they are driving gold to outperform because these large pools of capital are not allocating to bitcoin yet?Sure, that is part of it. But there is something more nuanced at play here. Most people are too focused on gold’s outperformance and forgetting to check bitcoin’s relative underperformance. Joe Carlasare shows the current bitcoin bull market has significantly underperformed past bitcoin bull markets. We haven’t seen the breathtaking price appreciation we have come to expect, which means the market has been void of the blow-off tops driven by the retail frenzy.If you have been buying bitcoin for speculative purposes, especially if the most attractive quality was it’s perceived asymmetry, you are very disappointed right now. I wouldn’t blame you. Bitcoin has not delivered on that promise so far in this cycle.But if you were buying bitcoin as a defensive asset to protect your purchasing power from currency debasement and out of control inflation, then you likely have been good with the results. Bitcoin is up about 1,500% since January 2020 and the asset has appreciated more than 18% in 2025.The asymmetry of bitcoin came from the high degree of risk an investor was taking when they bought the asset. You get paid for the risk you take. But bitcoin is not risky anymore. It is very obvious that bitcoin is not going away, the government is not going to outlaw it, and bitcoin will eventually seep into every sophisticated investors portfolio.So you should expect bitcoin’s return to come down from past bull markets. This doesn’t make bitcoin unattractive at all. Instead, it means bitcoin’s rise is essentially pre-ordained at this point. It will take time, but bitcoin is going to win on a global stage as one of the top store of value assets. Gold will do well alongside bitcoin. These two assets are not in competition with each other, but rather they serve as brothers in the fight against currency debasement.Coexistence is a good thing for both assets.But in the short-term, we may have hit a turning point this weekend. We are most likely to see a large rotation from the gold trade into bitcoin throug

To investors,The housing market is widely seen as a key input for what happens in the US economy and how the Federal Reserve decides monetary policy. I asked one of my favorite X accounts to put together a guest post on the current housing situation. This person, who wishes to remain anonymous, has an X account you can follow.The beauty of anonymity is the reader is left to judge the merits of what is written, rather than assign value based on who the writer is. This guest post should help you better understand what is happening with yields and housing. I hope it is valuable to you.Here is Housing’s Next Act.The U.S. economy has shifted from late cycle wobble to clear deterioration. Job growth is fading, openings have drained toward pre-pandemic levels, and the latest ADP print turned negative. Household balance sheets are fraying where credit card and auto delinquencies are climbing toward Great Financial Crisis highs, student loan stress has re-emerged, and office vacancies are at records. In the market’s plumbing, strain is no longer subtle. SOFR has traded above the Fed’s interest on reserves, a sign dollars are scarcer at the margin while bank reserves have slipped below the $3T line once called ample. Regional bank shares are sliding again, and the Treasury curve has broken lower from the front end through the belly. None of this is random; it mirrors past moments when policy stopped transmitting and the system began hoarding liquidity. What the 2-year is signaling The 2 year yield is the market’s blunt gauge of upcoming Fed moves. Over the past quarter, it’s dropped from roughly 4% to near 3.4%, its lowest since 2022. That slide is the curve’s way of saying the Fed will keep easing not because inflation is conquered, but because credit is tightening on its own. The pattern is familiar. In 2001, the 2 year led a 500bp cutting cycle; in 2007–08, it ran ahead of the sprint from 5.25% to zero; in 2020, it collapsed before the Fed finished cutting. When the front end leads down like this, policy usually follows. Why the 10-year matters more for households The 10 year is the economy’s anchor. It sets the base rate for nearly every long term loan and reflects what markets believe about growth and inflation years ahead. Most homeowners don’t keep a mortgage for 30 years; they move or refinance every 7–10. Investors price that risk off the 10 year plus a spread for prepayment and liquidity risk. In calm markets that spread is about 1.7–2 points; when volatility rises or balance sheet space tightens, it widens toward 2.5–3. The 10 year has fallen alongside the 2 year from the mid 4s in July to just under 4%. That move signals cooling growth expectations and rising demand for safety. Yet the average 30 year mortgage remains in the mid 6s, implying a wide spread consistent with stressed liquidity. The Treasury rally is a warning. The market is bracing for a scenario where the Fed must inject reserves faster than planned. How the slowdown is showing up in housing Housing entered this phase with poor affordability, uneven regional strength, and a heavy builder footprint. As in 2006, volumes cracked before prices. Sunbelt and Mountain West metros with heavy new construction cooled first in both sales and rents. Tighter, older stock markets in the Northeast and Midwest are now following. Builder margins have compressed sharply from peak highs. Sunbelt apartment rents are falling. Active listings are climbing across the West. Builders still make up an unusually large share of supply, an aftereffect of pandemic lock in that kept resale inventory tight but now amplifies competition where new supply clusters. The biggest misconception is that Fed cuts fix affordability overnight. They don’t. When easing comes after the break, mortgage rates fall slower than fed funds because the 10 year sets the anchor and spreads stay wide until liquidity normalizes. The curve is sending that same message now. How fast the Fed can cut and how far mortgages can fall Once unemployment rises, the Fed pivots from “inflation first” to “stability first.” From 2007 to 2008, the funds rate fell 525 bps in 15 months. In 2001, 475 in a year. In 2020, 150 in two weeks. From today’s 4.25–4.50% range, a sharper downturn base case points to another 150–200 bps of easing over six months, some at meetings, some possibly between. In a severe-stress path with thinning reserves and fragile regional banks, 300–400 bps within nine months would still fit precedent. Mortgages won’t mirror those cuts. If safe haven demand pulls the 10 year to 3.0–3.25% over the next year, consistent with past recessions and spreads stay wide near 2.3 points while QT continues, the average 30 year settles between 5.2% and 5.9%. A 4 handle requires a second act with the Fed halting QT and supporting MBS liquidity, or volatility collapsing on its own. With spreads near 1.8 points and a 3% 10 year, mortgage rates could print around 4.8–4.9%. That usually takes quarters, not weeks

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They are pouring trillions of dollars into various industries with one macro goal: ensure the United States continues to lead on the global stage.We saw two major announcements yesterday that further solidify the vibe shift.First, Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan committed to investing $1.5 trillion into 27 different industries they deem critical to the success of the country. These investments will happen over a 10 year timeframe and the industries include supply chain, defense, aerospace, energy, manufacturing, and frontier technologies.One goal is to increase energy independence and resilience, which can be done by investing in everything from the grid to battery storage. Another goal is to accelerate America’s position in disruptive technologies like AI, cybersecurity, and quantum.Obviously these are notable goals and critical industries, but just how will the financial institution deploy this money? They say it will be through direct equity and venture capital investments.That is exactly how it should be done in my opinion. Capitalism works because of the economic incentive for various market participants to come together and solve a problem. Jamie Dimon was quoted as saying “we’ve always worked with the government. That’s always been true my whole life, my own career. This is not philanthropy. This is 100% commercial.”It is hard to argue with that logic. There is a supply/demand imbalance in these critical industries, so the people who step up and provide solutions will be economically rewarded.The second example we got yesterday of the vibe shift came from Anduril, the leading next-generation defense company. They announced EagleEye, a new family of warfighter augmentations that place mission command & AI directly into the warfighter’s helmet.This is something right out of science fiction.Imagine a world where our ground troops have the capabilities of a computer, including computer vision, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, embedded into their helmets and the outputs available via a digital screen in their eyewear.This is going to become a reality in the near future. The only conclusion I can come to is America’s military is about to become more lethal and more effective.In a world where peace is obtained through strength, as we just saw with the peace deal in the Middle East, it is good for American citizens to have the most capable military possible.When you combine the massive investments from JP Morgan and the technology advancements of Anduril, you can easily see what is happening in our country.Risk-takers are investing time, energy, and money towards solving difficult problems. The right people have stoped complaining and they are now focused on competing globally. We have to win in AI, energy, defense, manufacturing, quantum, and every other industrial or frontier technology.It is good for investors. It is good for businesses. And it is good for our country.Game on!Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementIs Bitcoin The Only Safe Haven Now?Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.In this conversation, we discuss whether there’s a bubble forming and where Jordi stands — bullish or bearish, we dive into the AI trade, the supply and demand imbalance driving energy and infrastructure, the growing “debasement trade” as institutions allocate to Bitcoin and gold, we explore capitalism vs. socialism, humanoid robots, and the macro forces shaping the markets today.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. 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Today’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees* on your first transaction.To investors,Financial markets went into panic mode on Friday and asset prices fell aggressively. The sell-off started about mid-day, but was accelerated Friday afternoon when President Trump posted on social media saying he was going to implement a new 100% tariff on China.As if investors already have amnesia from April’s tariff scare, people raced to dump whatever assets they were holding. The stock market had just closed, so the main impact there was in after hours trading. But bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets never close. We saw those assets sell off in one of the most rapid and severe price drops that I can remember in the last decade.For example, bitcoin fell from around $121,000 to about $108,000 in mere minutes. It was one of the rare $10,000+ daily candles that bitcoiners have always dreamed of, but unfortunately it was in the wrong direction.Now before I explain why the sell-off is a positive development, you should know this market correction was not a complete surprise. I sat down with my friend Jordi Visser at 10am Eastern Time on Friday to record our weekly conversation. During that talk, Jordi explicitly called out the likelihood of a market correction in the near term. He described himself as medium-term and long-term bullish, but short-term he was much more cautious.Take a listen to why Jordi was worried:Hours later the correction began and it only accelerated throughout the day. Honestly, one of the most prescient takes someone has shared on the podcast since we began. Impressive to say the least.But the good news is that the bear market of October 2025 is officially over already. Why? President Trump took to social media on Sunday night and reassured everyone “it will all be fine” and “the USA wants to help China, not hurt it!”That reassurance is all the market needed. We saw stock futures open green last night and bitcoin surged back over $115,000 per coin.So what are my takeaways from this debacle over the last few days?First, if you sell bitcoin amid geopolitical uncertainty, you never understood what you owned. The decentralized, digital currency was built to give someone a place to save their hard-earned economic value without relying on a nation state to back it. That is not only a powerful idea, but it is an idea that should gain value as geopolitical uncertainty continues to increase in the coming years.Second, if bitcoin can fall $15,000 per coin in a day, that likely means in the future it could also go up $15,000 per coin in a day. Study reflexivity. It would take an extraordinary announcement or development for this to happen, but the market is showing us what is possible.Third, if you were bullish on bitcoin and stocks three days ago, you should be even more bullish now. None of the fundamentals changed in the last 72 hours. We simply got a healthy reset that wiped out the excess leverage in the system. Now the market is cleared to go higher.Fourth, imagine telling someone 10 years ago this headline: “The $19+ billion crypto liquidation, which is the largest in history, dropped Bitcoin’s price to $108,000.” We dreamed for days like this. We are going so much higher over time.So regardless of how you view Friday’s events, I don’t think investors are going to care or remember them in a week. This is how markets operate now. They move at lightning speed. Investors have amnesia. Everything is forward-looking. The President tanked the market on Friday. He revived it on Sunday. You may not like it, but that is what happened. And that is what is going to keep happening. Geopolitical negotiations are happening on social media. Investors will keep overreacting in the immediate term. Long-term investors don’t have to worry though. Avoid excess leverage, know what you own, and you can relax.Bitcoin’s rise is pre-ordained. They will never stop printing money, so bitcoin is never going to stop going up. God bless Satoshi Nakamoto for inventing a solution to one of the world’s most difficult problems.Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I’ll talk to you all tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementIs Bitcoin The Only Safe Haven Now?Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation, we discuss whether there’s a bubble forming and where Jordi stands — bullish or bearish, we dive into the AI trade, the supply and demand imbalance driving energy and infrastru

To investors,It seems the “debasement trade” is the talk of financial markets, so I asked one of the brightest minds I know to put together a guest post on what is really happening right now. This person, who wishes to remain anonymous, has an X account you can follow and a Substack with long-from analysis of macro. The beauty of anonymity is the reader is left to judge the merits of what is written, rather than assign value based on who the writer is. This guest post below will open your eyes to a different way of seeing the world. I hope it is valuable to you.Here is The Architecture of Debasement: Anatomy of the Fiat Illusion* The Core Diagnosis - The Death of the Measuring StickSomething extraordinary is happening beneath the surface of global markets. Gold and Bitcoin, two assets long treated as opposites, are rising together. On the surface, it looks like a bull market. In reality, it’s a failure of measurement.In USD terms, U.S. assets look euphoric: Nasdaq up 165%, S&P up 102%, home prices up 56% since COVID. But when you re-denominate in gold those gains shrink to flat. In Bitcoin they implode - Nasdaq down 78%, S&P down 84%, home prices down 87%. What appears as “growth” is simply the mirror image of a collapsing unit of account.This is the same pattern that appears at the end of every major currency regime. People feel richer in the debasing unit because the unit is melting faster than the asset can rise. In real collateral terms they’re already poorer. Gold and Bitcoin aren’t “going up” - they’re marking down the old world in real time.* The Internal MechanicsDebasement doesn’t begin with printing presses. It begins with the arithmetic of empire. The U.S. system depends on three linked pillars:* Structural deficits: The government is running peacetime fiscal gaps of 6–8% of GDP - unheard of outside wartime.* Debt saturation: Federal debt has crossed 120% of GDP. Corporate and household debt are also at record highs.* Negative real yields: The only way to finance that load is to keep interest rates below inflation, which silently transfers purchasing power from savers to the state.This is why wages lag prices. Why policy feels reactive. Why “wealth” feels hollow even in a booming market. We’re in a world where the money supply has outrun the narrative explaining it. The Fed is still using 20th-century instruments to manage a 21st-century reflexive spiral.The U.S. is executing the last phase of an imperial carry trade: attracting global capital, inflating nominal asset prices, and exporting the currency risk to anyone still holding dollar claims. It worked for Britain in the 1920s and for America in the 2010s. But no empire survives once its own citizens begin thinking in alternative units.That’s where we are now. For the first time, a critical mass of investors measure their world in Bitcoin and gold instead of dollars. Once that shift hardens, the regime is already over.Once real yields go negative long enough, three things happen:* Nominal asset prices rise mechanically because future cash flows are discounted at a lower real rate. This is the “wealth” people see.* Hard collateral stops circulating - gold piles into central bank vaults, and Bitcoin moves off exchanges.* Alternative units of account emerge - investors start benchmarking their portfolios to something other than the official currency.This is happening in real time. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for 27 consecutive months. The dollar’s share of global reserves is at a 30-year low. Treasury auctions are increasingly reliant on indirect bidders rolling shorter maturities. These are classic pre-revaluation signals, the same behaviors you see before a peg breaks.The mechanical fuse is duration mismatch. Every sovereign, corporate, and household balance sheet is now levered to low-rate debt issued in a high-rate world. Refinancing risk has become reflexive risk: every basis point higher forces more issuance, which forces more monetization. That’s why this version of debasement is terminal - it’s the arithmetic endpoint of 40 years of compounding leverage. The system can’t normalize without collapsing its own collateral.3. The Historical SignatureRome debased its coinage 90% before the Western Empire collapsed. The French monarchy printed Assignats until bread cost millions of livres. Weimar Germany ran negative real rates and massive deficits before the mark imploded. The British pound lost its reserve status not in 1944 but in 1925 when the Bank of England tried to return to gold at an overvalued rate and foreign creditors stopped believing.The pattern is always the same:* The empire’s liabilities exceed its productive base.* It finances the gap with monetary alchemy.* Nominal asset prices look strong, but measured in real collateral they stagnate or fall.* Eventually the public abandons the old unit of account and starts thinking in the next one.That is exactly where we are at now. In USD terms, U.S. assets still look “fin

To investors,The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September under the guise of addressing a weakening labor market. It didn’t matter that data suggested the Fed should have been cutting rates much earlier in the year, the central bank’s stated reason was the labor market issues.Jordi Visser has been pounding the table to point out this is proof the Fed is more worried about job losses than they are about inflation. I don’t disagree.But this development begs the question: Why is the labor market weakening?Apollo’s Torsten Slok took a stab at explaining the slow job growth. He writes:There are three reasons why job growth is slow: 1) Lower immigration, 2) AI implementation and 3) fewer government jobs.Specifically:* At the current level of GDP growth, nonfarm payrolls should be 263k every month.* A key reason for the slow job growth is that the growth rate in the foreign-born labor force has been significantly weaker than normal. Fewer people looking for jobs means fewer people get hired.* AI implementation is likely improving productivity.* Government job growth was artificially high in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Combined with DOGE, government job growth is now returning to more normal levels.The bottom line is that the weak labor market is not due to weaker labor demand, but rather to weaker labor supply because of immigration, AI implementation and a normalization of job growth in the public sector.This analysis by Torsten is important because it highlights three major trends that are unlikely to change in the near term. So that suggests the labor market is going to have continued weakness, which means the Fed is going to keep bringing the cost of capital lower and lower.As the Fed cuts rates lower, we should expect asset prices to go higher. Investors and corporations salivate over cheaper capital. They can push further out on the risk curve, they can invest more in R&D, and they can pour more capital into various assets.In a very simple way, the lower the labor market goes, the higher asset prices are going to go. That is nearly the complete opposite of what has happened in history. Usually a weaker labor market means a recessionary period, which pushes asset prices lower.But the inputs to a weaker labor market are not structural issues, but rather signs that companies are becoming more productive and efficient, while the US government is becoming less bureaucratic and bloated. Those are both big wins for the private sector.Weak labor market, all-time high asset prices right now. Welcome to the future.Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementThe Bitcoin Trade Everyone Is DoingJeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investing Officer of ProCap BTC. In this conversation we talk the debasement trade, bitcoin vs gold, why everyone seems to be getting rich while the government is going broke, Ken Griffin & Paul Tudor Jones being so excited about the market, and what the $2 billion Polymarket deal means for the future.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. 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To investors,The legends of finance have been out in full force this week. They are giving interviews left and right, but the message is very clear — US financial markets are in a bull market.First, we saw Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC saying he feels like we are in 1999. Take a listen here:“If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably isn’t a chicken.” What an incredible line from PTJ. And he isn’t wrong.So how does the famous investor think investors should be positioned to benefit from this inflation story? Gold, bitcoin, Nasdaq and retail stocks. Here is how he explained his logic:Paul Tudor Jones is not the only person who is bullish though. JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon shared with Bloomberg that we are in a bull market. It is great to hear the leader of the world’s largest bank say he isn’t worried about a recession. Dimon has access to more information than almost anyone in the world. He did however say he is worried about inflation, which is something investors around the world seem to be more concerned about given the recent rise in gold and bitcoin’s price.Another investing legend, Ray Dalio, said this week he believes gold should be around 15% of a portfolio. Here is why he believes this is the right allocation:These sophisticated investors are not talking about gold because they think inflation is going to be low. In fact, prediction market Polymarket shows 85% odds of inflation over 3%. But I am going to go out on a limb and say inflation is not going to be nearly as big of a problem as these legends are predicting. In fact, I think the inflation fears are widely overblown. Using the same Polymarket data, you can see the market is really saying inflation is going to end up somewhere between 3% and 3.2% in 2025.And Truflation, which is my preferred method for understanding inflation because of their real-time infrastructure, is showing inflation at 2.2%. This a relatively big drop from the 3%+ Truflation reading at the start of the year. But inflation isn’t the chart to watch in my opinion. That is a complete distraction from what is really happening. Strive’s Jeff Walton nailed it when he called out the divergence between CPI and M2 money supply.He says “M2 money supply has grown 2.5 times faster than CPI over the last 20 years.” So which of those metrics are you more worried about? The manipulated, slow-growing CPI numbers or the parabolic M2 money supply growing to the sky?It is obvious the latter is the bigger concern. So keep this in mind when you hear Ken Griffin and others talking about the US dollar having a significant decline so far this year. Here are Griffin’s recent comments:It isn’t inflation that is driving the dollars fall, but rather the fact the government can’t stop printing money. Nothing of value has infinite supply. So until governments stop printing money, bitcoin and gold will continue surging higher. Gold bugs are celebrating their recent outperformance on a relative basis to bitcoin. I believe bitcoin is going to have a big Q4 and it would not surprise me if bitcoin ends 2025 with a larger annual return than the precious metal. But regardless of relative performance, the sound money principled assets of gold and bitcoin are working together to do what central banks have failed to do — protect the purchasing power of the people.We should all be thankful we have these two options available to us. Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementHow To Prepare For The Next Bitcoin Bull MarketAnthony and John Pompliano discuss why bitcoin is going higher, why Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor Jones are so bullish, how to enjoy the bull market while preparing for a storm, why the government will never stop printing money, and why asset prices are going higher.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives u

To investors,Citadel’s Ken Griffin dropped a harsh truth in an interview with Bloomberg yesterday:“We’re seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar as people are looking for ways to effectively de-dollarize, or de-risk their portfolios vis-a-vis US sovereign risk.”It is not every day that you see one of the world’s best investors say people are de-dollarizing their portfolio. Why would they want to de-dollarize? Goldman Sachs says the story is simple:“Trump said America can “grow its way out of debt.” What it really means is debasement. Shutdowns highlight the erosion of trust in U.S. institutions — Bitcoin is the pressure valve. That’s not bearish S&P, it’s bearish dollar.” Those are the magic words — erosion of trust in US institutions. People don’t trust the government. They don’t trust the news. And they definitely don’t trust the central bank. Why should they? Those three organizations have proven to be untrustworthy over the last decade.One of my favorite Satoshi Nakamoto quotes is “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.”Ain’t that the truth. Satoshi knew the problem earlier than most.We are now seeing large amounts of capital flow to safety from this breach in trust. The crypto market saw $6 billion of inflows last week, which is an all-time high.How should we think about these inflows? Should we assume this is speculation from investors looking to capture a quick profit? Or is there something much bigger at play?End Game Macro says “this $6 billion inflow into crypto is a warning signal. Big money is moving because confidence in the global financial system is starting to fray. Historically, surges like this have appeared when investors begin losing faith in traditional credit markets. What makes this moment different is the context: global growth is slowing, debt loads are exploding, and the risk of a major credit event, something breaking in the bond or banking system is rising fast.” Confidence is starting to fray. Trust is eroding.This leaves citizens with a simple choice…stay trapped in the existing system and suffer whatever consequences come from the undisciplined decisions of leadership or take your assets and move them into a parallel system that was purpose-built to mitigate these disastrous policies. That is the choice in front of investors — stay and suffer or leave and prosper.It doesn’t seem like a hard choice to me. But here is the beautiful part about capitalism, everyone is financially incentivized to move to where their money will be treated best. First it was the individuals. Then we saw the small businesses and private companies. Next it was the public companies, which were followed by the large financial institutions. Eventually we will see the central banks and nation states.Every dollar, every unit of economic value. It is all going to move into the new system and new assets. Some of the adoption will happen by true flight from the old system into the new system. Some of the adoption will happen by bringing the new assets into the legacy system via existing wrappers.Regardless of how it happens, it could not be more clear that the transition is underway. The next decade will be defined by this trend. I implore you not to ignore it.Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementFormer Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee On BitcoinJeb Hensarling is the former Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and one of the most influential voices in economic policy during the 2008 financial crisis. He has also joined ProCap BTC as a Senior Advisor. In this conversation, we talk about how Jeb pushed back against the bank bailouts, how those same issues led to the rise of bitcoin, his views on bitcoin, stablecoins, the broader crypto industry, and how technology and innovation are reshaping the financial system today.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha s

Today’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees* on your first transaction.To investors,It is time for bitcoin to shine. That is my conclusion after doing a deep-dive over the weekend on the digital asset’s fundamentals and the current financial environment. How high could bitcoin go in the next 8-12 weeks? That is anyone’s guess, but I think people have been lulled to sleep for long enough.The fireworks can now commence.Let’s dig into some of the data. First, James Lavish says “if you say you don’t believe in Bitcoin, you might as well say you don’t believe in inflation.”Although bitcoin tracked CPI directionally before 2023, the chart visually provides a lot of noise. But starting around 2023, bitcoin and CPI have been married at the hip. This tight correlation suggests investors are using bitcoin as an inflation-hedge asset.JPMorgan analysts are now calling bitcoin and gold the “debasement trade.” They write:“The bank defines it as a trade that ‘reflects a combination of factors, which in our client conversations range from elevated geopolitical and policy uncertainty, to uncertainty about the longer-term inflation backdrop, to concerns about ‘debt debasement’ due to persistently high government deficits across major economies, to concerns about Fed independence, to waning confidence in fiat currencies in certain emerging markets in particular, and to broader diversification away from the US dollar.”This makes sense, right? Investors are scared that governments around the world have created too much debt, therefore nation states and central banks have to debase their currency in order to avoid default. Holding dollars will be a losing strategy in this scenario.Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello highlights that “Gold (+48%) and Bitcoin (+31%) are the top performing major assets so far in 2025. We’ve never seen these two in the #1 and #2 spots for any calendar year.”Many people will argue that past performance does not indicate future performance. That is true, but the structural trends globally are suggesting bitcoin and gold are both going higher.Forward Guidance’s Felix Jauvin writes “every country is pivoting to running it hot. We’re gonna run as wide of deficits as possible to try and outgrow the debt. Central banks are giving up on inflation and fiscal dominance is arriving. Nominal assets will do well, debasement hedges will do even better. The world of 2010-2020 is no longer. Reset your priors. Let’s f**king go.”None of this is new if you have been paying attention online for the last decade. Bitcoiners, and their predecessor gold bugs, have been yelling about the currency debasement problem for years. But the difference today is you have major financial institutions lending their credibility to the thesis.Take Morgan Stanley as another example. Ash Crypto writes:“$1.3 Trillion Morgan Stanley Global Investment Committee recommends allocating 2–4% of client portfolios to crypto and says Bitcoin is a scarce asset, comparable to digital gold.”BTC Archive also points out that “Morgan Stanley says it will “support” its 16,000 Financial Advisors managing $2 TRILLION if they wish to allocate to Bitcoin and crypto.”So what should you take away from the traditional firms embracing bitcoin? The big guys understand the “debasement trade” is not going away. Why? Vijay Boyapati explained it well when he wrote “in the global family of financial assets the two closest siblings are now sending the same message: global debasement has reached the point of no return.”The point of no return. That may sound like hyperbole to some of you, but I don’t think it is far from the truth. An entire generation of investors are realizing a large portion of financial returns in the market are merely debasement of the currency. If that is a major driving force of returns, it calls into question everything you were taught about investing from the old world.Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen highlighted a great example of this by denominating the S&P 500 in bitcoin, rather than in dollars. The S&P is up over 100% since 2020 when denominated in dollars. That is great, right? Not so fast. The same index is down nearly 90% in the same timeline when you denominate it in a finite, sound money asset like bitcoin. Simply, your frame of reference really matters.So as I have been saying for awhile now, bitcoin is the hurdle rate. If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it. And I think the next 12 weeks are going to be very fun for bitcoin holders.Interest rates are coming down. Currency debasement is accelerating. The institutional world is embracing the debasement t

To investors,The US government shut down earlier this week and market commentators predicted excruciating pain in financial markets. The exact opposite has happened though. Adam Kobeissi points out the market bottomed at the exact moment the government officially shut down.This is a classic example of the rumor being much more important than the actual news. Additionally, the market is essentially calling the government’s bluff. No one believes the government will stay closed and everyone sees this situation for the performative drama that it is. A big reason the market has shrugged off the shutdown news is because there is so much momentum across public markets. Steve Deppe writes:“The S&P 500 ended September on a 5-month winning streak & with a new all-time high monthly close. [This is the] 21st time since 1950. The index has then never closed lower 8 months out. This guarantees nothing, other than mute anyone saying the last 5 months are a sign of impending doom.”This significant momentum is being driven by AI-related stocks. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest explains “AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.”There is no other way to say it — we are living through an AI revolution and public market investors are big winners because of it. But not everyone is thrilled about the recent developments in the market. Shanaka Perera believes something bigger is happening in the market. He claims “markets ripping higher into a shutdown isn’t strength … it’s proof the S&P 500 no longer trades on fundamentals. Liquidity, passive flows, and option mechanics have replaced cash flow and earnings. This isn’t history being made, it’s price discovery being euthanized.”Famed investor Leon Cooperman went on CNBC yesterday and he was even more blunt about his reservations. Cooperman literally recited a Buffett quote from 1999, which said:“Once a bull market gets under way, and once you reach the point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted into the game that is responding not to interest rates and profits but simply to the fact that it seems a mistake to be out of stocks.”This concern from Leon is rooted in the famous “Buffett Indicator” that measures total market cap of public equities against GDP. This measurement is at an all-time high right now, which has people nervous.But I think the concern is overblown. Could stocks correct from their current valuations? Sure. But the technology innovation related to artificial intelligence is very real and the impact is likely to play out over the next decade or so. Companies are producing more profits with less employees. New companies are being built at breathtaking speed, including revenue numbers in the first few months that were previously thought impossible.So this begs the question of what an investor’s timeline is for a given investment. If you are worried about capturing profits in the next few days, weeks, or months, you have a lot more work to do than the investor who is looking to buy great assets and hold them forever. Speaking of great assets, we have discussed gold’s recent rise at length. It appears large banks are beginning to expand their enthusiasm to bitcoin in addition to the gold propaganda they have been spreading in recent weeks. This morning VanEck’s Matthew Sigel called out recent commentary from JPMorgan, which compared bitcoin and gold. The bank wrote:“The steep rise in the gold price over the past month has made bitcoin more attractive to investors relative to gold…the market cap of bitcoin at $2.3 trillion currently would have to rise by close to 42% (implying a theoretical bitcoin price of $165k), to match on a vol-adjusted basis the around $6 trillion of total private sector investment in gold via ETFs or bars and coins... ...This mechanical exercise thus could imply significant upside for bitcoin.”As my friend PEOperator said, “amazing how they’ve changed their tune.”Stocks, bitcoin, and gold. They are all doing well in 2025. Each asset has surged higher in response to the US government shut down. And I am willing to bet that each of these three assets will be higher in the coming years.The doomsday predictors are not only wrong, they are cherry-picking data to tell a story that scares people out of the market. Quite literally, nothing could be more destructive to wealth than selling your financial assets to hold US dollars or treasuries. Things in motion tend to stay in motion. And financial assets have a lot of momentum right now. If you want to try calling a market top, be my guest. Just make sure you don’t cry later if you get steamrolled. Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementHow Crypto Technology Can Save America on National Security StageRobert Viglione is the Co-Founder & CEO at Horizen Labs and the

Today’s Letter Is Brought To You By The Millerman School, studying Plato’s Republic!If you want to better understand the human condition and current events, and establish a solid foundation for your study of philosophy, there’s no better place to start than Plato’s Republic.And now, you can study this foundational text of Western thought in a structured, 10-week seminar led by Dr. Michael Millerman.During the seminar you’ll study Plato’s Republic from cover to cover, with:* Individual 1-1 tutoring sessions with Dr. Millerman* Live group discussions, completely off-the-record* Guidance and commentary on the text* Weekly writing challenges to help you clarify your thinking* Weekly personal feedback from Dr. Millerman, and more!There are only 30 seats available, and applications will be processed in the order received.Studying Plato’s Republic is incredibly worthwhile – and many students would say life-changing – whether you’ve read it 10 times already or are reading it for the very first time.So if you’re ready to study this foundational text, apply now.To investors,There is a gold rush underway. No, seriously.Gold has been on an absolute tear recently and many investors are wondering what has been going on.Brookings Institute’s Robin Brooks writes “The Fed’s latest dovish pivot - telegraphed on August 22 by Chair Powell at Jackson Hole - unleashed something and I don’t think anyone really understands what that is. Gold is up a stunning 15% since that day, a rally that’s so big that it stands out on this 25 year chart.”Now remember, gold is a non-productive asset. It is supposed to be a stable store of value with very little volatility on a day-to-day basis. This is why a 15% move in about a month has put all eyes on the precious metal.One of the main reasons for this move is increasing investor demand.Adam Kobeissi explains “Investors are piling into gold funds like never before. The largest gold ETF, $GLD, has attracted +$2.3 billion in net inflows so far in September. This marks the 7th monthly net inflow over the last 8 months.Year-to-date, $GLD has pulled in +$13.4 billion of capital, the most since the 2020 pandemic. As a result, gold is on track for its 7th quarterly gain over the last 8 quarters, its best streak since 2020.”These large inflows are noteworthy, but they don’t explain why so much capital is flocking to an asset that has been around for thousands of years. Robin Brooks attempts to explains this phenomenon when he writes gold “keeps rising even as the Dollar is stable against the rest of the G10. This means gold is a refuge from fiat currencies generally, not just the Dollar, as markets hunt for safe havens amid high debt and troubled fiscal outlooks. It looks like a broad debasement of fiat currencies is underway.”This broad debasement of fiat currencies should not be a surprise though. Global Markets Investor points out “currency debasement is not a bug — it’s a feature of the fiat system. Since Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971, not one of 152 countries has kept average inflation below 2%. Even Switzerland averaged 2.2%. Fiat money is in an eternal bear market.”Although it is impossible to prove, I believe the rise of bitcoin has greatly contributed to the marketing of gold. Bitcoiners have done an excellent job of calling attention to the problem with central bank activities. As Satoshi Nakamoto once said in a 2009 blog post, ‘The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.”That warning could come from a bitcoiner or it could come from a gold bug. That is the beauty of sound money assets. The holders of either the analog or digital version are on the same team. They are connected in their fight against currency debasement and inflation.But we can’t exclusively point to fiat debasement or central bank buying as the cause for gold’s recent rise. We know inflation fears, increasing geopolitical tensions, and expectations of more rate cuts from the Fed are contributing factors as well.Add in the recent media coverage of the gold rally and you have the perfect storm for gold to surge higher and higher. Now the challenge for investors is deciding whether they should buy gold or abstain because they missed the rally. I don’t have an answer for you.But I am reminded of the recent analysis from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid:“Had you bought Gold at its peak in 1980, you will only just have outperformed inflation today, 45 years later. By contrast, if you bought the S&P 500 on that day, it would have provided you with a stunning 4,250% real return. However, had you bought gold in 2000, you would have comfortably outperformed the S&P 500 since.”Welcome to the challenge of investing. You can pick the right asset for the right reasons, yet still end up with less than desirable results. No one promised this game was easy.Hope everyon

Today’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees* on your first transaction.To investors,There is no better feeling than a bull market. Your portfolio is going higher day after day. The media is falling over themselves in excitement. Social media is lit on fire with people taking screenshots of their net worth. Bears are screeching a big crash is right around the corner. And your barber, taxi driver, and neighbor are all pitching you their latest stock pick.Straight pandemonium. Bull markets sure are fun.And that is exactly where we are right now. Stocks, bitcoin, gold, and nearly every other asset continue surging to new all-time highs throughout 2025. But just how good is this bull market? How does it compare to past markets?3Fourteen’s Warren Pies writes:“How does the [current] rally compare to history? It is the fourth strongest rally versus all other bull markets. Only 1982, 2009, and 2020 were greater. It is the STRONGEST recovery excluding recessionary cases. At 116 days without a 6% pullback, the rally has gone farther than all but two early-stage bull [markets] (1966 & 1957).”This data confirms what we are all feeling…the current bull market is very rare. The tariff fears earlier this year created an artificial suppression of stocks, which laid the groundwork for the historic market recovery we are now witnessing.There are many people arguing the recent price appreciation is unsustainable. They’ll point to numerous data points suggesting stocks are overvalued. You will hear them say a reversion to the mean is essentially guaranteed. But what if they are wrong? What if the exact opposite is true?I want to challenge each of you to ask yourself, what does the future look like if the bull market is just beginning? What if everything goes right for investors?These questions are not rooted in some fantasy world though. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick shows “Q4 is the best quarter of the year historically and it isn’t even really close.”The last quarter of the year has an average return that is nearly twice as strong as any other quarter of the year. Ryan goes on to explain that Q4 has a positive return 14 out of the last 15 times that the S&P 500 was up 10% or more going into the final 3 months of the year.Still not convinced? Well, we can see 2025 is following a similar path to 1999. Revere Asset Management’s Connor Bates shows it perfectly in this chart comparing the 1996 - 2001 timeframe with 2023 to present day:I doubt I have 20/20 vision, but those two markets look visually similar to me. Given the trend, this comparison would suggest there is still significant appreciation left in this bull market under the 1999 repeat market scenario.And remember, all of this analysis and stock market performance is happening with the backdrop of the Fed’s recent interest rate cuts. The US central bank is reducing the cost of capital at the same time that stocks are hitting all-time highs. That development is hardly bearish and instead suggests equities will keep setting new record highs through the end of the year.That will be great for equity investors, but there is another asset that is sounding an alarm bell that can’t be ignored. That asset is gold. Mike Zaccardi shows central banks globally have been buying up gold in droves:This is just an insane amount of demand for the precious metal. Analyst Marko Papic highlights this central bank activity is about to help gold flip US treasuries as the most popular reserve asset around the world.This milestone has seemed impossible for more than 25 years. The sound money regime was dominant until 1971. We watched the explosion of fiat happen as soon as the US went off the gold standard and it seemed like sound money would be a forgotten foot note of history. But now we are seeing a return to sound money properties through gold and bitcoin.The team at Blokland shows gold’s dominance priced in US treasuries. The trend is clear and the reasoning could not be more obvious.Simply, central banks have abused the opportunity given to them by citizens. They printed too much money. They destroyed the purchasing power of the people. Citizens are choosing to vote with their dollars and move from fiat-based assets into sound money assets. These same citizens are also using stocks as a way to benefit from the insane currency debasement happening across markets.Stocks, gold, and bitcoin. Those three assets will allow you to benefit from the ridiculous, undisciplined behavior coming from central banks. Buy them and chill. They are all going higher. The bull market is not over because cheap money is coming

To investors,I have been spending an inordinate amount of time trying to answer the question, “what is going on in financial markets?” Some of you believe we are in a tech-enabled economic boom that will go on for years, while others believe everything is overvalued and a significant market crash is right around the corner.It is that enthusiastic disagreement that interests me. The market is ultimately the referee, so it will determine the winner, but the work I have been doing is focused on ensuring I am on the right side of the outcome.Lets start with one of the negative views of the market.Charles Schwab’s Kevin Gordon explains “The S&P 500’s forward P/E is at the same level today as it was in January 2021. Today, the effective fed funds rate is 4.09% ... in January 2021, it was 0.09%.”The X Capitalist sees this as a major red flag. He writes “The market is basically more overvalued than it was back in 2021. Investors are counting on AI to grow corporate earnings at an unprecedented rate. We haven’t seen this yet and I don’t think we’ll see it soon enough. It’s time to be more fearful than greedy.”But I don’t know if people should be as pessimistic about this data as it seems on the surface. Kevin Gordon goes on to explain the “S&P 500’s forward profit margin has been rising sharply and is at a new all-time high.”That is a great sign that profit margins are rising. This reinforces the idea that companies are growing revenue and profits, but doing it with less employees.A big reason for the investor enthusiasm we are seeing right now is artificial intelligence. JP Morgan’s Michael Cembalest writes “AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.”The AI boom is not happening in a vacuum either. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick says when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in September, “Q4 is higher more than 90% of the time.”This September all-time high is being driven by a persistent bid in the market. Bloomberg reports “The S&P 500 has gone 107 sessions without a drop of 2% or more, the longest streak in more than a year.”And the backdrop of continued bullish momentum is locking arms in solidarity with the fact that odds of an October rate cut are now 94%.There are plenty of folks who will see all this economic data and say “this time is different.” They will point to some weird political policy or a critique of the existing administration, but that is all noise.Detrick shows that stocks go up under almost every President, regardless of whether they are Republican, Democrat, Independent, or an alien.Don’t let politics ruin your portfolio. Stocks are structurally built in a way where they will continue to go up forever over a long period of time. And maybe most importantly, consumers are showing the bullishness in the market is warranted.We saw the Q2 real GDP number revised higher to 3.8%, which is significantly higher than the estimated 3.3% from economists. Take a listen to how surprised CNBC was this morning:So we have much stronger than expected consumer spending, rising incomes, and lower imports. That all sounds like positive developments to me. After reviewing the economic data, I understand why some people are bearish. But I also just think they are wrong. Lets see what happens though. Time will tell and the market will be the referee. Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementAnthony Pompliano Explains Bitcoin Outlook For Q4Anthony and John Pompliano discuss bitcoin, why gold has been doing so well, Strive buying Semler Scientific, bitcoin treasury companies, and can AI replace the Fed?Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining

aWealthy people have access to the best financial insights in the world. They have large teams of people working to help them make more money. But artificial intelligence can now do it better and cheaper than those teams. We built CFO Silvia to democratize access to this important superpower and it is completely free.I’m hosting a free webinar this Thursday, September 25th at 1 PM ET to show you how I personally use Silvia, your AI CFO, to make smarter financial decisions.In this session, I’ll walk you through:* The most powerful prompts to use* How to leverage Silvia to analyze your portfolio and manage risk* New feature launches coming before the end of the year* Live Q&A with meWhether you’re a Silvia user or not, the webinar will walk you through everything you need to know: Register hereTo investors,People tend to have amnesia when it comes to financial markets. It was only a few months ago that max fear had spread like wildfire across Wall Street. People were promising recessions and depressions. They swore that tariffs would bring sky-high inflation to American consumers. And turning on your television was the fastest way to get duped into dumping every asset you owned before financial Armageddon showed up.Of course, this all looks ridiculous in hindsight. Literally insane. The US government put economic policies in place that protected US companies, encouraged GDP growth, and didn’t require an increase in prices for American consumers.Now that last part will have some of you reeling in disgust. You will still argue that tariffs are inflationary. By placing the tariffs on imports, you will claim consumers are required to pay a higher price, which would make tariffs a tax.But that has not happened. You don’t have to believe me either. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it himself yesterday. Here is what he said:“We’re now collecting a good bit of revenue...$300 or 400 billion dollars a year pace [from tariffs].” “Who’s paying that? So far...it looks like it’s the middle group, retailers and importers, THEY’RE NOT passing along to consumers that much of the cost. The actual impacts on inflation have been quite modest so far. It’s a small amount.”So there you have it. The leader of the United States central bank is telling you the previous consensus on tariffs was completely wrong. Tariffs have not been inflationary. In fact, Truflation shows that inflation has dropped from over 3% at the start of the year to only 2.05% as of this morning.So the Fed is telling you tariffs didn’t bring inflation. Truflation is telling you inflation went down this year, instead of up. But there are still plenty of people who will not believe it. More importantly, this entire situation was very obvious from the start. On April 3rd, one day after Liberation Day, I tweeted “Stocks and bitcoin will likely be at all-time highs again before the end of the year. All this noise will quickly be forgotten.”People were laughing at me. They thought I had lost my mind. Many people accused me of being a MAGA shill. Whatever their critique, they simply could not fathom that tariffs would not be destructive and the likelihood that stocks would go back to all-time highs by year end. Here we are though. Asset prices are at, or near, all-time high prices. Stocks, bitcoin, gold, and more. Everything has come flying back. Inflation isn’t a problem. The Federal Reserve is waiving the white flag and capitulating on interest rate cuts. And maybe most importantly, GDP is surging higher as the impact of artificial intelligence seeps into every corner of the economy.Companies are growing faster and they are doing it with less employees. Efficiency is taking over the market. Investors are increasing their portfolio values. The government is capturing hundreds of billions of dollars in newfound tariff revenue. There are still some bears out there predicting the next big market crash. But history tells us things are likely to keep improving for the foreseeable future. Cutting interest rates with stocks at all-time highs is unlikely to see stocks go down. So stop listening to the insane neighbor or your favorite economics professor on TV.Look at the data. Study history. Do the work by seeking out the source material. The pessimist always sound smart, but they rarely make money. And 2025 is just the latest example. In the words of Warren Buffett, never, ever bet against America.We are winning. And I don’t see that stopping any time soon.Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementAnthony Pompliano Explains Bitcoin Outlook For Q4Anthony and John Pompliano discuss bitcoin, why gold has been doing so well, Strive buying Semler Scientific, bitcoin treasury companies, and can AI replace the Fed?Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Fig

Today’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay!Join over 30 million users who trust MoonPay as their universal crypto account.We make it easy to buy and sell crypto in over 180 countries, with no-to-low fees and all your favourite payment methods like Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, card and more.MoonPay is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. Trade, stake and build your portfolio all in one place.Start now and get zero MoonPay fees* on your first transaction.To investors,Mark Spitznagel is one of my favorite investors in the world. He is notorious for running an investment strategy that loses money for long periods of time, while hoping a big market crash is right around the corner. When the market crash materializes, Spitznagel and his firm make an insane amount of money.Spitznagel’s Universa Investments runs a tail-risk hedge fund with $20 billion in assets under management. To put this strategy in perspective, when most of Wall Street was freaking out back in April due to the tariff policies, Universa was busy booking a 100% gain that month.100% in a single month. Not bad, right?Spitznagel is one of my favorite investors because his world view balances daily pessimism with a data-driven approach to long-term patience. Not many people can intentionally lose money every day for long periods of time. Mark has written two great books on this perspective — The DAO of Capital and Safe Haven. I highly suggest reading both of them.But you may be surprised to learn Mark Spitznagel, the man betting on market crashes, is actually bullish on stocks right now.In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Spitznagel said he expects stocks to surge much higher before there is any material market correction.Spencer Jakab writes:“The alarming part of Spitznagel’s current outlook is that he sees conditions akin to 1929, the year of the Wall Street crash. The silver lining for those hoping the bull-market music will keep playing a while longer: He thinks this is more like the early part of 1929 when stocks added significantly to their Roaring ’20s gains.”So the perma bear on Wall Street is actually bullish right now. Maybe that is a good sign for investors that are long, but potentially it is a sign of the market top too. I will let you decide how to interpret that development.Now Spitznagel is not alone in his recent optimism. Wisdom Tree’s Jeff Weniger writes: “The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, and the primary reason that occurred is because the big, scary Tariff War was overhyped.If you look at this like a bar tab receipt, your table ordered lobster, filet mignon, expensive wine, martinis, oysters, and more. But someone added a bowl of chicken noodle soup (the tariffs) and we were told that the soup was reason enough to panic out of stocks, send volatility to Lehman levels, send the S&P 500 reeling by the same order of magnitude as the Covid crash, and all the rest of the drama. What an interesting year.”Smart money is positioning themselves for stocks to go up too. Mike Zaccardi points out “US margin debt is now at an all-time high. Which is bullish - you want to see confirmation between stock prices and margin debt (smart money indicator).”And retail investors don’t want to be left out of this party. They had the highest weekly inflow into the market for all of 2025 last week.Of course, the Federal Reserve wants to throw gas on the fire too. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello shows “The bond market is pricing in 2 more 25 bps rate cuts by year-end and 3 more 25 bps cuts in 2026. That would bring the Fed Funds Rate below 3%. After a brief hiatus, easy money is back.”Easy money is back. Everyone is bullish. Even the man constantly betting on a market crash. Maybe you can be the contrarian that times the top of the market, but my guess is things in motion will stay in motion. The market is going higher. The pessimists will be left crying. And those who understand how to buy great assets and chill will be laughing all the way to the bank.Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementMike Novogratz and Kyle Samani On The New Company They Raised $1.6 Billion ForMike Novogratz is the Founder & CEO of Galaxy. Kyle Samani is the Chairman of Forward Industries and the Co-Founder & Managing Partner at Multicoin Capital. In this conversation we talk about the $1.65 billion fundraise they recently did, how big these treasury companies can get, why they love Solana, tokenization, plans for the company, risks, and how they are going to generate shareholder returns.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond ju

To investors,There is something different about financial markets today in comparison to decades ago. The government took us off the gold standard in 1971, but that was only the first step in what seems to be transpiring. The accelerated currency debasement over the last 5-6 years has completely changed the market. Tyler Neville writes:“This is an excellent chart that symbolizes that we are in fact living through Weimarica. Markets are now a political utility that are managed in order to finance government deficits. Normally central bank’s cut rates when markets make lows (chart below from Callum Thomas). In this new world where a global fiscal super-cycle fuels nominal growth to pay for global boomer debts, global central banks ease when markets are at new highs. It’s a brave new world!”Now it may scare you that we are cutting interest rates while stocks are at all-time highs, but there will be many other areas where this monetary policy decision shows an impact.This interest rate cut comes as cash piles have been building in money market funds. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello says “total assets in money market funds have hit a record $7.7 trillion, tripling over the last 8 years.”The academic theory would tell you that money market funds will see a drawdown as the interest rates get cut. There is no guarantee it will happen, but economists will promise you that it should.This brings us to the impact of interest rates and currency debasement on the stock market. Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison asks “These companies [Apple, Microsoft, Google] are ostensibly in totally different businesses and yet seem to exhibit the same growth dynamics. What's the explanation? (Pictured: ~$200B -> ~$3T.)”The answer is probably much simpler than anyone wants to believe.Jon Kol writes “It’s the money supply, the best evidence for the hypothesis is that all four contract at the same period, or more likely these three [companies] followed M2 contracting.”Is monetary expansion and contraction part of the equation? For sure. Is it the full story? That is harder to believe. We would see all stocks going up and down in unison if the only driver was currency debasement. If we dig deeper, there is something fundamentally different about these large cap tech companies than the broader stock market.Balaji Srinivasan says his “explanation is that the legacy economy is being sunset in favor of the Internet economy.”So just how big is the Magnificent 7 now? Global Markets Investor writes “the top 10 stocks now make up 41% of the S&P 500, AN ALL-TIME HIGH. The Magnificent 7’s share has also hit a new record of 35%. Out of 500 stocks, just 10 are driving the entire index.”This ridiculous outperformance is being noticed globally too. Global Markets Investor highlights “Foreigners own more US stocks than ever: Overseas investors now own a RECORD 18% of the US equity market. Foreign investors collectively own ~$20 trillion of US stocks and ~$14 trillion in US debt, including Treasuries, mortgage and corporate bonds, according to Bloomberg.”As I said in the beginning, there is major change underway in the stock market. The currency is being debased at an accelerated rate. Interest rates are being cut with stocks at all-time highs. And large cap tech is pulling away from the rest of the market.Plenty of people are betting on the end of the party, similar to the Dot Com Bust of 2000. But I wouldn’t be so confident. Things in motion tend to stay in motion and these large cap companies are driving record profits and revenue growth year-over-year. Maybe, just maybe, these businesses are actually becoming more valuable at a rate we have never seen before. Time will tell. Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementJordi Visser Explains Why The Fed Has CapitulatedJordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we discuss the market reaction to interest rate cuts, the rise of retail investing, Oracle, bitcoin, and how AI will change the future.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. 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To investors,Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are poised to make their first interest rate cuts of the year later today. Are they behind the curve? Of course. Have people lost confidence in the Fed? Obviously.But we have finally arrived at the big day for the central bank to capitulate. They have been gaslighting the American people for months by predicting sky-high inflation, which was their main reason for not cutting rates.But that prediction never came true. Inflation is much lower than they thought. Shelves are not empty. There was no recession or Great Depression.Unfortunately, the labor market has deteriorated in the meantime though. We have seen sluggish payroll growth, coupled with recent downward revisions to employment data, so the Fed now has no choice but to cut rates. They can’t abandon one of their core mandates of ensuring maximum employment.Let’s unpack the horrible, no good labor data right now:* July and August employment data came in under expectations* The recent job revision removed 900,000 jobs that previously were thought to have been created over the past year* Unemployment has been slowly ticking higher* June’s data showed an outright job loss for the first time since 2020So the picture is very clear — the labor market is screaming at the Fed to cut rates immediately.This brings us to the Fed’s second mandate of maintaining stable prices. Remember that concern they had about inflation? It was dumb. We never saw the runaway inflation they were worried about and we are not going to see it from the tariff policies.Inflation, which is basically at 2% according to Truflation, is telling the Fed they have the green light to cut interest rates.Now here is the thing…there are people who are worried a rate cut will drive inflation to concerning levels, but these people don’t realize how deflationary tariffs and artificial intelligence have been to the economy. The Fed can cut aggressively without worrying about inflation spiking.So this brings me to how aggressive the Fed should be in their rate cut today. The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut. That’s an interest rate cut for ants. Let’s not play little kid games here. The Federal Reserve should cut 50 basis points and show the market they are serious about stimulating the economy.This larger cut would immediately surprise the market into a bullish position, including stimulation to the job market. Companies would increase their spending on R&D. GDP would accelerate. And inflation would not increase because of the deflationary nature of tariffs and AI.You don’t get the intended impact of interest rate cuts if you simply do what the market is expecting. The 25 basis point cut is priced in. The Fed needs to run a shock and awe campaign. Shake every nerd on Wall Street into believing the central bank is here to stimulate activity. Cut 50 basis points. Make the press conference a fireworks show. Send the stock market shorts crying. And get the US labor market running hot again.It is time to bring liquidity to the market, Jerome. Don’t let us down.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementMike Cagney Wants To Modernize Financial Infrastructure on Wall StreetMike Cagney is the Founder and Executive Chairman of Figure. In this conversation we discuss taking Figure public, how block-chain native securities unlock new markets, the rise of DeFi, bitcoin backed loans, and how Figure is modernizing financial infrastructure.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. 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Take a listen to this:It is not every day you hear someone with a direct line to the President say “bitcoin has become the truly greatest asset of our time.” That sounds awesome, but the devil is in the details. First, Daniel Pico points out gold is outperforming bitcoin so far in 2025. Gold is up 40% and Bitcoin is only up 22%. Now some of you may be worried by this fact, but I wouldn’t jump to conclusions.Gold outperformed earlier in the year, bitcoin eventually caught up and surpassed the gold performance, and then gold recently re-captured the lead in recent weeks. Why does this happen? Well, it appears that gold has become a leading indicator for bitcoin’s performance. I shared this chart from Jack Green back in May. It shows that bitcoin tends to breakout and catch up to gold’s performance on an approximately 100 day lag. So when gold runs, bitcoin waits about 3-months and then quickly follows.Given this dynamic, you can think of bitcoin as a coiled spring. The digital currency is waiting to thrust itself higher. Because of this, Timothy Peterson says “Bitcoin is having its worst bull market year ever.”Plenty of bitcoiners are disappointed by this performance. Classic! Any other investor in the world would be ecstatic about a 23% annual return, but bitcoiners are used to significantly higher returns. They don’t want tens of percent, they want hundreds of percent and they want it every year.I wouldn’t hold my breath for that level of performance though. I do believe bitcoin is going higher through the end of the year. We have the interest rate cut that should occur this week, which will bring cheap capital into assets like bitcoin, and analyst Frank Fetter highlights the Bitcoin MACD is showing green for the first time in weeks. The Bitcoin Moving Average Convergence Divergence, known as the MACD, is a momentum measurement that historically does a good job of showing when sentiment is flipping bullish. As the market becomes more excited, capital flows and bitcoin goes higher.You don’t have to overthink everything. Sometimes it really is simple. Lastly, Axel Adler points out the 3-year Bitcoin Risk Index is measuring at 23% right now.The last time this index was so low for an extended period of time, we saw bitcoin rise from below $30,000 per coin to nearly $60,000 per coin. This happened between September 2023 and December 2023. I am not saying bitcoin is going to double in price over the next 120 days, but I do think we are seeing numerous data points line up for bitcoin to go higher in the coming weeks. The bitcoin bull market is not over. There is still plenty of fun for people to have. Just don’t expect this bull market to look like past ones.Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.- Anthony PomplianoFounder & CEO, Professional Capital ManagementWill The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Happen Again?Henrik Zeberg is the Head Macro Economist at Swiss Block. In this conversation we talk about the macro outlook, K-shaped economy, inflation, a potential big tech bust coming, why the 4-year bitcoin cycle is not going anywhere, and what a monetary reset would look like.Enjoy!Podcast Sponsors* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditi

To investors,Things are about to get very crazy across financial markets. Now I know there are plenty of people predicting the next recession is right around the corner, but they are simply wrong.I am not sure if they are looking at bad data, drawing bad conclusions from good data, or some combination of the two. It doesn’t really matter how they are arriving at the wrong conclusion.They are just flat out wrong.Take the US stock market as one data point. Adam Kobeissi writes:“The stock market is incredibly hot. Since 1975, there have only be 6 times where the S&P 500 rose +30% or more in 5 months. 2025 is one of those times. In 100% of these cases, the S&P 500 has ended higher in the following 6 and 12 months, per Carson Research. In fact, during such occurrences, the S&P 500 has rallied by an average of +18.1% in the following 12 months.”Those are insane numbers. You want to bet against history? Be my guest. I like to think of financial markets similar to science though. Things in motion tend to stay in motion. Momentum is one powerful force.But this is where things get interesting. If the stock market is growing by 30% in 5 months, there has to be someone getting richer, right? Who is holding all those stocks?Adam goes on to explain: “Newly released data shows that US household net worth jumped by +$7.1 TRILLION in Q2 2025 alone. In other words, for 3-straight months, US households added an average of +$79 BILLION in net worth PER DAY….As a result, the rich are getting much richer. Currently, the bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth. In fact, the top 1% now holds $40 TRILLION more wealth than the bottom 50% combined.”So to recap this situation, the stock market just drove historic returns over the last 5 months. It made rich people ever richer, while the bottom 50% of Americans were left sitting on the sidelines.That isn’t the rich people’s fault. It is a financial education problem. In fact, I would argue we have a national crisis in this country until we figure out how to educate every student on personal finance and investing.Asset owners will be winners and savers will be losers moving forward. You may not like it, but it doesn’t make it untrue.This bull market is not close to over either. Mike Zaccardi writes “The average bull market lasts 70 months. We are about to complete month 35 of this one.”That is a narrative violation, right? I know your pessimist neighbor isn’t telling you this data. But data is data and almost all of it points to the fact that we are in a bull market that has plenty of legs left.This brings us to the Federal Reserve meeting this week, which should culminate in an interest rate cut.Yes, they are going to cut rates with the stock market at all time high and the government inflation data measuring above 2.5%. We have never seen a situation like this before.Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello points out the last time the Fed cut interest rates with inflation over 2.9% was in October 2008, “in the midst of the worst recession/bear market since the Great Depression.” There are two big conclusions I have from this unprecedented move. First, the Fed is going to do this because of the labor market. Artificial intelligence has been a massive deflationary force in the US economy. Companies are figuring out how to be more productive and profitable with fewer employees.But second, the Federal Reserve has been behind the curve for months. I believe the Fed should make a 50-75 basis point cut in interest rates so they can catch up to where they should be, but history suggests the Fed will avoid being bold in their decision.Jordi Visser explained to me this weekend why he sees the odds of a 50 basis point cut increasing:But let’s level set for a second. Polymarket odds are only 8% for a 50 basis point cut, which is very low compared to the 90% odds of a 25 basis point cut this week.It ultimately is not going to matter whether the cut is 25, 50 or 75 basis points though.Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick writes “The Fed last cut in December of 2024, so it'll be nine months between cuts. Waiting 5-12 months between cuts tends to be bullish for the S&P 500. Higher a year later 10 out of 11 times with above average returns should have bulls smiling.”The Fed is going to push asset prices, from stocks to gold to bitcoin, to much higher levels. They can’t help themselves. They have to address the labor market issues or they will have a bigger problem on their hands.Put aside the fact that the government’s data misled the Fed into believing inflation was much higher than it actually was. Ignore the fact the Fed has become a politicized organization that seems to be cheering against the current administration’s economic plans. And refrain from getting worked up about the Fed’s flip-flopping about being “data dependent.” The central bank is now backed in a corner. They have to cut interest rates. Given asset prices are near all-time highs, we can only expect the newfound cheap