The Playbook Podcast

Democratic strategists have split in two over how to discuss inflation. One camp tends to blame the media for focusing too much on the issue at the expense of positive economic news such as low unemployment. This group tends to promote statistics buried beneath the headlines that suggest inflation isn’t that bad. But privately, more and more Democrats see inflation in far more dire terms — and not just for their prospects in elections this year. One top progressive sounded the alarm over the weekend on a widely read off-the-record email list. The author gave us permission to quote from their missive — “Danger: Inflation Is a Third Rail” — which was ricocheting around lefty circles Sunday night.

With Ohio’s May 3 Senate GOP primary barely two weeks away and no clear frontrunner, J.D. Vance's rivals are mounting an all-out effort to head off a potential endorsement from former President Donald Trump, per our colleagues Natalie Allison, Meridith McGraw, Alex Isenstadt and Daniel Lippman. Trump seems intent on picking a horse in all the big GOP primaries. But several candidates are bunched together in polling in Ohio, making this one a real roll of the dice. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Biden’s pollster on the recipe for how to ‘not get our a---- kicked’ in the midterms Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

In the coming weeks and months, we’ll be out covering the key districts and states that will decide the outcome of the midterm elections. Nevada has one of 2022’s most under-covered Senate races. The incumbent, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, keeps a low profile in Washington and back home, but she’s raised a record amount of money and is spending big on TV ads. Nevada has a famously transient population, so she’s started with a biographical spot to introduce herself to the hundreds of thousands of potential new voters who weren’t around when she was first elected in 2016. Her other messaging is straight from the Dems’ generic 2020 strategy for vulnerable senators: reminding voters of all that Covid relief money that kept businesses afloat. The political environment for Cortez Masto is brutal. Consider the latest poll, released this week from Suffolk University and the Reno Gazette Journal: Biden’s approval rating in the state was 35%. Cortez Masto would lose to either GOP nominee: 43-40 against the well-known Adam Laxalt, and 40-39 against the relatively unknown Sam Brown. 72% of Nevada voters said the economy was just fair or poor. Inflation is the top issue for voters — 40% of whom said they are worse off compared to four years ago. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Here’s something Democrats agree on: High gas prices — and the inflation rate they’re driving up — are a huge political liability. Here’s something Democrats don’t agree on: what to do about it. On Tuesday, as the new 8.5% annualized inflation rate was announced, President Joe Biden was in Iowa, addressing concerns about energy costs and touting his decision to remove restrictions on the sale of E15, an ethanol-gas mix the administration hopes can ease the proverbial pain at the pump. “I’m not going to wait to take action to help American families,” Biden said. “I’m doing everything within my power by executive orders to bring down the price and address the Putin price hike.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

This morning at 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department will release its newest consumer price index report, and the White House is bracing itself for the political impact of inflation numbers that are widely expected to be the highest yet faced during the Biden administration. What to expect: Economists polled by Reuters anticipate that the report will show that, year-over-year, “consumer prices rose 8.4% in March, up from 7.9% in February.” That would be the highest rate since December 1981, notes CNBC. Why it’s likely to be that bad: This is the first CPI report since the large jump in oil and gas prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Worth noting: “Economists consider two versions of the CPI data: The headline number that includes all prices consumers face, and a so-called core CPI that excludes often volatile food and energy price fluctuations,” writes CNBC’s Thomas Franck. “The White House says it anticipates a wider-than-normal disparity between the headline and core readings because of an abnormal increase in gas prices that occurred last month.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Rep. Liz Cheney has set another personal fundraising record. The Wyoming Republican is fighting off a serious challenge from Harriet Hageman, a Cheyenne attorney, and the Aug. 16 primary has turned into the most important and closely watched contest between the MAGA and traditional wings of the GOP. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

In a history-making vote Thursday afternoon, the Senate confirmed Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, where she will be the first Black woman in history to serve as a justice. Immediately after VP Kamala Harris called the 53-47 vote, Senate Democrats (and, notably, Utah Republican Mitt Romney) gave a standing ovation while most Senate Republicans sulked from the chamber floor. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Khanna’s BBB advice to Biden: ‘Just get Sanders and Manchin in the room and hammer this out’ Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

There’s no denying it: Covid is rocking Washington right now. Days after Saturday’s annual Gridiron Club dinner, multiple attendees of the boujee 600-seat confab have come down with it — including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Attorney General Merrick Garland and Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Joaquin Castro (D-Texas). Throughout the district on Wednesday, the possible superspreader event was seemingly all anyone could talk about, as NYT’s Katie Rogers writes. Reporters and pols alike found themselves trading text messages about who sat by whom and whether so-and-so who was feeling ill got a positive test result. The entire situation, she notes, is a reminder “that, even as officials seek to pivot away from strict restrictions and encourage Americans to learn to live with the coronavirus, the pandemic is not over.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Sen. Mitt Romney is having a bipartisan moment. The Utah senator kept everyone in suspense until Monday on how he would vote on Ketanji Brown Jackson's confirmation. He voted against confirming her to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit last year, but flipped and will now vote to confirm her to the Supreme Court. Six weeks ago, House Democrats blew up a bipartisan deal on Covid funding when they stripped $15 billion in pandemic relief money from a bill to fund the government. Biden and Democrats scrambled to find a way to pass a stand-alone bill and they needed a GOP partner. Romney stepped in and spent the last month and a half negotiating with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House. They announced a $10 billion deal on Monday. On Tuesday, it fell apart.

Democrats are desperately trying to understand what’s roiling the electorate heading into a brutal midterm environment. HIT Strategies has been conducting weekly focus groups to find out in real time how Americans are processing events in 2022. On Monday night we watched discussions with two different subgroups of partisan Democrats assembled by the firm: “Black Base, Always vote for Dems, Ages 25+” and “Youth Base; Always vote for Dems, Ages 25 – 39.” There were significant differences within and between the two groups of nine voters. But there were also some broad takeaways. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The White House and Senate Democrats expect Biden’s Supreme Court nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson, to be confirmed by the end of this week. The final two Republicans still in play, Sens. Mitt Romney (Utah) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), could announce how they plan to vote as soon as today. Clinching a new Supreme Court justice is a big moment for any president. But given the historic nature of Jackson’s nomination, this will be an even bigger deal for Biden. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

For President Joe Biden, this was one of those weeks that demonstrated the limits of the powers of the presidency. Political scientists often like to rib pundits and the public for having a so-called “Green Lantern” view of the presidency, a theory defined by Dartmouth’s Brendan Nyhan as “the belief that the president can achieve any political or policy objective if only he tries hard enough or uses the right tactics." In reality, presidents operate under enormous constraints that often make them seem feckless in the face of intractable problems. The news at the end of this week makes it clear that Biden has entered the “long slog” period of his first term. The bold ambitions of year one have been downsized. And even with more modest goals, unifying Democrats in Congress has become tougher — and winning over Republicans harder — than ever. Many problems, like inflation, don’t have readily available solutions. And even when Biden is able to act, like on immigration, his choices are politically perilous. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: The midterms will be won in the suburbs Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

All signs point to a typical midterm election this year in which the president’s party suffers double-digit losses in the House. The GOP has the big structural advantages on its side: a Democratic president with low approval ratings, a sour public mood driven by inflation concerns and an edge in polling on issues like crime, education and immigration that are proving important to voters in the crucial swing suburbs where the midterms will be decided. One of the few ways Republicans could potentially blow this electoral equivalent of a layup is if former President Donald Trump suddenly returns to center court. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

We’ll have a lot more on the new Biden budget this afternoon and Tuesday. But here are some highlights of the framing from a White House official: — Three big things. “The President’s Budget will reflect three important values: fiscal responsibility, safety and security at home and abroad, and a commitment to building a better America.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

We have long been avid readers of the deep-dive political memos written by Doug Sosnik, a former senior adviser to then-President Bill Clinton. Sosnik’s latest is a very thorough 14-page dissection of the new politics of America’s suburbs. It is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the midterms in 2022 and presidential politics in 2024. “The suburbs,” Sosnik writes, “are the last remaining competitive areas left in the country.” Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: The man in Blinken's ear: State's Derek Chollet on Ukraine Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The big news at the morning NATO confab, announced Wednesday by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, is threefold: (1) NATO is doubling its military footprint in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia to counter the threat from Russia; (2) Biden and NATO leaders will increase pressure on China to condemn the Russian invasion; (3) NATO will take additional steps to aid Ukraine with “cybersecurity assistance” and “equipment to help Ukraine protect against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats.” It’s that third issue that has seized everyone’s attention, as WMDs are now a serious focus of the summit. Stoltenberg repeatedly called on Russia to stop its “nuclear sabre-rattling,” and warned that “the spread of chemical or biological agents used in Ukraine may have dire consequences also for the population living in NATO Allied countries in Europe.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, President Joe Biden has focused on three policies: (1) sanctioning Russia, (2) bolstering NATO’s defenses and (3) providing security assistance to Ukraine. All three policies have been calibrated to deter Russian President’s Vladimir Putin's aggression without escalating the conflict. Biden departs for Brussels this morning, and on Thursday, he attends a trio of emergency summits — NATO, the G-7 and the European Council — where each of the three pillars of Biden’s response to the war will be under pressure. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The White House has worked hard to project a united front between President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris and their respective teams. But the upcoming book, “This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future,” by NYT’s Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns, reveals some frustrations at the highest echelons of the White House between the Biden and Harris camps, as well as the VP’s angst over the policy portfolio she was given. Playbook got its hands on some juicy excerpts. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

As Rep. Mo Brooks’ (R-Ala.) Trump-endorsed Senate campaign sputters and the Alabama GOP primary descends into chaos, Sen. Richard Shelby is making his move. Our Burgess Everett and Natalie Allison scoop that Shelby is “preparing to pour as much as $6 million into the race by transferring his campaign coffers into a super PAC supporting Katie Britt,” his former aide who is running for the Senate seat. “‘I’m going to give it all away sooner or later. I’m going to help her, transfer it to a super PAC,’ said Shelby, who has nearly $10 million in his campaign account and more than $6 million in a separate leadership PAC. He added that Britt is ‘doing well right now. Mo Brooks is dropping, you see that.’” Listen and subscribe to Playbook Deep Dive: How Democrats alienated the woman who helped them win the House Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

No one was surprised by the request: a no-fly zone — and if not that, then access to those Soviet-style fighter jets in Poland that could help them “close the sky.” But if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's — who has risen to almost folk-legend status in the eyes of Congress, and who clearly did his homework, invoking 9/11, Martin Luther King Jr. and Pearl Harbor in one 16-minute address — thought his message would immediately elicit the changes he wanted, he was wrong. At least so far. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address Congress virtually at 9 am this morning. The headlines will likely focus on the red lines that President Joe Biden won’t cross: Zelenskyy’s request for a no-fly zone, and the transfer of Polish MiGs. But the debate has shifted. Betsy Woodruff Swan interviews Daniel Vajdich, a longtime lobbyist for Ukrainian interests, who says “he has consulted with Zelenskyy’s advisers about the speech.” “Zelenskyy is going to express gratitude to the U.S. for what it’s done to support Ukraine and punish Russia, but he’s also going to name and shame, or at least shame, and rightly so,” he tells Betsy. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

On Wednesday, Zelenskyy will speak to Congress virtually. According to one person with knowledge of the address, he plans “to name and shame,” meaning excoriating the West for not doing enough to defend his country, though he will balance his remarks with some gratitude for what has been provided. WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia and Siobhan Hughes report that it was Zelenskyy who asked Congress to speak. Few world leaders have the kind of moral authority that Zelenskyy has to push Congress. A week ago Saturday, when he addressed members of Congress privately, his pleas for assistance produced a flurry of congressional requests to the Biden administration. The Ukrainian aid package zipping through Congress ballooned in the following days. Tougher sanctions, advanced air defense weapons, airplanes from Poland, and a no-fly-zone are all still on Zelenskyy’s wish list. His advocates in Washington — lobbyists and members of Congress — told Playbook they have tried to push his government to deemphasize the no-fly zone, which has been repeatedly ruled out by Biden, and focus on beefed up defense assistance that is more achievable, such as S-300 surface-to-air missiles. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Something unusual has happened in Washington since Russia invaded Ukraine. Congress — which typically takes a back seat on foreign policy matters — has driven the White House beyond its comfort zone with bipartisan demands for more assertive policies. It started with calls for tougher sanctions, then escalated to an appeal for a larger military and humanitarian assistance package. Members of both parties then clamored for a U.S. ban on Russian oil, which the White House saw as politically risky given the effect on gas prices at home. And they insisted that the U.S. end permanent normal trade relations with Russia. The tactics have worked. And this week, lawmakers will be at it again — this time nudging the Biden administration to go further than it wants in facilitating the transfer of fighter jets from Poland to Ukraine. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

At a Thursday lunch in the New York Times Washington bureau, upset reporters pressed executive editor Dean Baquet about a recent sting operation targeting national security reporter Matthew Rosenberg, according to two people present. Project Veritas, a group that has singled out journalists and Democrats in undercover operations, posted a pair of videos this week showing Rosenberg divulging details about sensitive newsroom dynamics and disparaging his colleagues. Rosenberg suggested that the media was overhyping the siege on the Capitol on Jan. 6, scoffing at colleagues who were there that day who said they were traumatized, and blasted what he called left-leaning younger Times reporters wrapped up in a “woke” culture influencing coverage. The videos immediately caused tensions to flare among Times staff, according to more than a half-dozen reporters who were granted anonymity to speak candidly. During the Thursday lunch, multiple reporters said they were upset about Rosenberg dissing their own coverage and badmouthing his coworkers. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: The man fighting for Ukraine in D.C. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Just after 10 p.m. Wednesday night, the House passed the $1.5 trillion omnibus bill, the first step toward averting a government shutdown and enacting Democratic spending priorities after more than 400 days operating under Trump-era budgets extended via continuing resolutions. But the party’s joy of the occasion was short-lived, as Democratic infighting quickly gobbled up the headlines and forced a daylong delay of the bill’s consideration. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

At 7:30 a.m., VP Kamala Harris departs for Warsaw, Poland, where she will be thrust into the middle of the first major standoff between NATO countries since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With tough sanctions in place, a Russian oil and gas embargo announced by Biden, and a no-fly zone ruled out, Zelenskyy’s desperate plea for the Polish MiGs is the most significant outstanding request from Ukraine. And after months and months of negotiating, and three short-term spending patches, congressional leaders released the text of a bipartisan $1.5 trillion government funding deal last night around 1:30 a.m. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

This morning we have a pair of significant Ukraine-related exclusives. The first is a letter signed by more than two dozen of the nation’s top foreign policy minds calling for a partial no-fly zone over Ukraine. The push runs squarely against conventional wisdom in Washington, but their missive will no doubt stir the conversation. Second, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows that Biden is enjoying at least a slight “Ukraine bump.” The uptick — first documented by an NPR/PBS/Marist survey released Friday — appears to be real, though how long it lasts is anyone’s guess. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

“Russia answers resistance with firepower,” notes the BBC’s Jeremy Bowen, who is in Kyiv now and covered the conflicts in Chechnya and Syria. “Rather than send in men to fight from house to house and room to room, their military doctrine calls for a bombardment by heavy weapons and from the air to destroy their enemies.” He added, “The depressing conclusion I’ve drawn from other wars in which I have seen Russians in action is that it could get much worse.” On Sunday evening, a senior Pentagon official sent Playbook an update on the Russian military campaign. The headline: While the Russians try to encircle and choke off major cities in the north and east, such as Kyiv, Kharkhiv and Chernihiv, they “are being met with strong Ukrainian resistance.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

“Ukrainian firefighters on Friday extinguished a blaze at Europe’s biggest nuclear plant that was ignited by a Russian attack and no radiation was released, U.N. and Ukrainian officials said, as Russian forces seized control of the site and pressed their campaign to cripple the country despite global condemnation,” reports the AP. “The head of the United Nations’ atomic agency said that a Russian ‘projectile’ hit a training center at the plant. Ukraine’s state nuclear regulator earlier said that no changes in radiation levels have been recorded so far after the Zaporizhzhia plant came under attack.” President Joe Biden has been adamant that he will protect every inch of NATO territory and that no American troops will step foot in Ukraine. The discipline to prevent escalation that leads to a NATO-Russian war and to remain firm about his no-boots-on-the-ground pledge is being tested every day. The pressure on Biden to intervene is increasing. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: An insider’s look into Putin’s long game Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

President Joe Biden's conservative critics — from Fox News to Capitol Hill Republicans — have slammed the administration for exempting Russian oil from the raft of financial sanctions aimed at the Kremlin. They’ve argued two main things: 1. With Russia’s economy so reliant on the energy sector, the U.S. should target that nation’s energy exports in order to be effective. 2. Biden should simultaneously green-light domestic energy production to offset any oil shortages — a policy the GOP has been pushing for years and that is, in many ways, antithetical to the administration’s climate goals. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Here were the three key takeaways and revealing moments that stuck with Team Playbook from President Joe Biden's first State of the Union speech. 1. Biden's cost-free confrontation with Russia — On the surface, events in Ukraine clearly upended the State of the Union speech. Biden spent the first 12 minutes of his address focused on the events there... Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

At 9 p.m., President Joe Biden will deliver the type of State of the Union address he never wanted to give. Biden and his advisers had hoped to use this moment to reboot his stalled domestic agenda. Instead, the situation in Ukraine has forced the West Wing to rewrite significant partitions of his speech. Biden is expected to use his address to respond to criticism that he didn’t act quickly enough to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin. He’ll emphasize his work to build an international coalition to counter Russia, as well as imposing crippling sanctions. It won’t all be a lesson in international relations, however. Administration officials say Biden will spotlight improvements in the economy while sympathizing with the plight of struggling Americans. He’ll highlight GDP growth and historic low unemployment — but also stress that more must be done to bring costs down. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Foreign policy crises have a way of reshuffling the priorities of a president. Joe Biden's standoff with Putin happened to come along just when Biden had lost some urgency in confronting his three big domestic threats. The pandemic is becoming endemic. There’s not much Biden can actually do about inflation. And the key senator standing in the way of Biden’s domestic agenda remains immovable. While the war in Ukraine is just five days old, administration officials and Biden allies are starting to grapple with the ways in which Biden’s presidency may be fundamentally altered. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Just before 6 a.m. Moscow time, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in a televised speech that his forces were entering Ukraine. Within moments, distant explosions were heard by reporters stationed in Kyiv and cities throughout the country. President Joe Biden, in a statement, called it “an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces.” A U.S. official said “full-scale” sanctions against Russia would be announced today. POLITICO national security reporter Alex Ward shares what he expects to hear. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The Russian sanctions announced by President Joe Biden on Tuesday made clear the White House is still grappling with the same question he mused about at his Jan. 19 news conference: What is the appropriate Western response to “something significantly short of a significant invasion — or not even significant, just major military forces coming across”? Tuesday’s sanctions were more of an amuse-bouche than the full menu that’s been hinted at for weeks. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It happened. On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops — er, “peacekeepers,” as Moscow’s propaganda machine is calling them — into separatist regions of Ukraine. The move came less than a day after Putin and President Joe Biden agreed “in principle” to make a last-ditch effort at diplomacy with a face-to-face meeting. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was set to iron out those details in a meeting with his Kremlin counterpart Thursday. But with the Russian military rolling across Ukraine’s borders, there are questions about whether that can happen. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy officially backed Harriet Hageman, the primary challenger to Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Olivia Beavers reports. While tensions have simmered between McCarthy and Cheney for over a year, it’s highly unusual for party leadership to back a challenge to a sitting member of their conference. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: The untold story of the former judge who beat Trump on Jan. 6 Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Former President Donald Trump met with Alabama GOP Senate candidate Katie Britt at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday, two sources familiar told Playbook. The former president has been having buyer’s remorse after endorsing Rep. Mo Brooks for Senate, watching with frustration as Brooks has failed to catch fire with the MAGA base. And for months, many Republican operatives across the political spectrum — from MAGA world and the RNC to the NRSC and Team Mitch — have privately whispered agreement on one thing when it comes to Missouri’s crowded Senate GOP primary: They’d welcome any nominee except Eric Greitens. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

We have some news in our latest POLITICO-Morning Consult poll that we can share with you this morning. The results get to the heart of two big questions about 2022: 1. Can Democrats overcome the culture war attacks dragging them down? 2. Can Republicans overcome the Trumpian issues dragging them down? Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The first clips of President Joe Biden's sitdown interview with NBC’s Lester Holt were released Thursday night (the full video will air on Sunday’s Super Bowl pregame show). Biden announced that his shortlist of potential nominees to replace Justice Stephen Breyer is down to four. Biden: “I’ve taken about four people and done the deep dive on them — meaning thorough background checks, and to see if there’s anything in the background that would make them not qualified.” Also: “​​I think whomever I pick will get a vote from the Republican side for the following reason: I’m not looking to make an ideological choice here.” And WaPo’s Seung Min Kim has a look at the status of Biden’s SCOTUS selection process. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: The Gen X activists upending Democratic politics Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It’s been one of the greatest sources of tension between House Republicans and Democrats for a year now: a chamber-wide mandate requiring lawmakers to mask up before they vote — and steep fines if they refuse. But now some House Democrats are following the lead of Democratic governors, calling for an end to mask mandates — even as their party imposes one in the House chamber. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Across the country, top Democratic officials are relaxing mask mandates as Omicron recedes and concern rises about how masking is affecting schoolchildren. Meanwhile, Republicans have seized on the issue to attack Democrats as mask fundamentalists. The shift among Democrats accelerated Monday, when a bipartisan group of governors meeting with President Joe Biden in Washington told him they wanted a “return to a greater state of normality” and to “move beyond the pandemic.” Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The fallout from the RNC’s weekend censure of Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) spread to Capitol Hill on Monday: Hill Republicans returned to town and lit into Chair Ronna McDaniel. Senate Republicans went on the record to say that looking back to 2020 is a losing strategy that won’t help the party flip both chambers of Congress. And they’re furious that the RNC would dub the activities of Jan. 6 “legitimate political discourse.” And less than 24 hours after our colleague Alex Thompson reported that an internal White House investigation found that top White House science adviser Eric Lander bullied and mistreated his subordinates, Lander resigned. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The most likely November election scenario is that Republicans win the House and Senate. On average since World War II, the president’s party loses 26 House seats and four Senate seats in a midterm election. The traditional indicators still point toward a typical midterm for Biden: low presidential approval rating (42%), a Republican advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (44%-42%), and more than twice as many Democrats retiring from the House as Republicans (29-13). But Democrats are beginning to whisper about something that sounds laughable to many observers: Maybe they can win the midterms. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

If you work on Capitol Hill, you’ve probably heard about “Dear White Staffers.” It’s an Instagram account that started as a place where aides of color on the Hill — a place dominated by white lawmakers and staff — could express their frustrations. But it’s expanded beyond that to become a go-to hub where anonymous staffers name and shame bad bosses and colleagues, and complain about absurdly long workdays, gender discrimination allegations, salaries so low they rely on food stamps to eat, generally toxic workplace behavior and an endemic lack of diversity. Playbook Deep Dive: Why Stephanie Cutter says Dems need a new SCOTUS strategy Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Republicans have been all over the map lately in their Supreme Court messaging. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) called President Joe Biden's vow to only consider Black women for the vacancy “affirmative action.” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Biden doing so during the campaign was “clumsy” and risked further politicizing perceptions of the high court. And Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) welcomed Biden’s bid to diversify the Supreme Court, saying “it’s about time” it looked more like America. So what gives? Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The center of legislative intrigue on Capitol Hill is bipartisan election reform. “That’s on a hot track right now,” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Monday. But as talks heat up to overhaul the Electoral Count Act, President Joe Biden is out in the cold — a bystander out of sync with both parties in Congress. Administration officials are deeply engaged in a gamut of other bills snaking through Congress. Russia sanctions? “We are working very closely with Congress,” press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday. Trying to unstick Build Back Better? “There’s a lot of discussion among members, their staffs, committees” and “we’re engaged in those as well.” Ditto for the government funding bill that must be passed by Feb. 18, and the China competitiveness bill under negotiation. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Lawmakers return from recess this week to a massive February to-do list before President Joe Biden's March 1 State of the Union address. And the pressure is on: The White House and vulnerable House Democrats are desperate to quickly pass a $250 billion package aimed at boosting manufacturing and relieving supply-side constraints — a win they’d love the president to be able to trumpet at his big speech. But Congress also has to avert a government shutdown and possibly begin vetting a Supreme Court nominee. And that’s to say nothing about trying to resuscitate Build Back Better. Can they do all this in a few weeks? Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

TV doc turned Senate hopeful Mehmet Oz met with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the NRSC headquarters earlier this month to lay out why he thinks he can win in the swing state of Pennsylvania. In normal times, such a meeting between a candidate and party bosses would be as pro forma as they come. But needless to say, these are not normal times in the GOP. Playbook's Tara Palmeri is here to explain. Plus, the latest in Ukraine and what's next for SCOTUS. Listen to POLITICO Playbook Deep Dive: A former NATO ambassador gets inside Putin’s head Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.

For weeks, Joe Biden's presidency has been dragged down by a stalled agenda, spiraling inflation, lousy poll numbers and an angry base accusing him of not delivering on his promises. Wednesday delivered a much-needed jolt with the news that Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire at the end of this term. It’s a chance for the White House to pivot from the spate of bad news and rally depressed Democratic voters. Perhaps more importantly, it presents a chance for Biden to prove to Black voters — who rescued his 2020 campaign — that he can deliver for them. Subscribe to POLITICO Playbook. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Senior Producer of POLITICO Audio.