The Playbook Podcast

The two big stories in Trump World: 1. In a Wednesday night ruling, a three-judge federal appeals panel sided with the Justice Department, blocking “aspects of … Judge Aileen Cannon's ruling that delayed a criminal investigation into highly sensitive documents seized from former President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate,” write Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein. Two of the three judges were Trump appointees. Their decision was unanimous. And it was unsparing. From the ruling: “Plaintiff suggests that he may have declassified these documents when he was President. But the record contains no evidence that any of these records were declassified. … In any event, at least for these purposes, the declassification argument is a red herring.” Read the 29-page decision Meanwhile, here’s Trump on Fox News’ “Hannity” on Wednesday night: “If you’re president of the United States, you can declassify … even by thinking about it.” Video 2. New York AG Tish James filed suit against Trump and his three oldest children, alleging a yearslong campaign of deception and large-scale fraud. Her office is seeking to recover about $250 million that it says they netted from the scheme. The juiciest takeaways, via Josh and Kyle … The James-Trump backstory, by Erin Durkin … Forbes’ Dan Alexander: “Exclusive Recording, Documents Bolster Trump Fraud Lawsuit” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

With four offhand words, “the pandemic is over,” President Joe Biden touched off a firestorm during his Sunday “60 Minutes” interview. The White House cleanup attempt was swift. Obviously the president wasn’t saying the American people shouldn’t take Covid seriously, it told reporters. Sure, he could have been more nuanced, but he was simply saying we’ve hit a different phase. And yet: A summary declaration that the pandemic is kaput carried implications that Biden did not appear to fathom as he walked the floor of the Detroit Auto Show with Scott Pelley. For one, more than 300 Americans are still dying from the disease each day as the nation’s public health establishment works to convince Americans to get the new bivalent booster shot ahead of a possible winter wave. The remarks also did nothing to convince Republicans to back an administration request for $22 billion in new Covid relief funding, a fight that will come to a head in the coming days. As Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told CNN’s Manu Raju on Monday: “If it’s over, then I wouldn’t suspect they need any more money.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Is 2022 a ‘waves’ election? Evidence that the election will likely be closer than originally thought continues to mount, as two new polls give a sense of the contours of the race. First, there's the NBC poll, which paints a decidedly mixed portrait. Seven weeks out, voters are evenly split at 46% in their preference for which party should control Congress next year. Biden’s approval rating has risen to its highest in 11 months, while DONALD TRUMP’s favorability has dropped. Sixty-one percent oppose the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, 63% said their income is falling behind the cost of living, and “threats to democracy” ranked as the issue most important to voters. Republican dreams that a huge swath of Latino voters will run to their side aren’t coming true — yet. That comes from our second poll, the latest from the NYT and Siena College, which shows Democrats maintaining a hold on the Latino electorate. Asked which party’s candidate they’d vote for if the election were held today, 56% of Latinos sided with the Democrats, compared to 32% for the Republicans. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO Audio.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

After the Supreme Court overturned Roe, many Democrats pushed for legislation codifying the right to same-sex marriage, lest it, too, be taken away by the high court. Over the past two months, those efforts gained momentum thanks to the efforts of a small bipartisan group that saw a path to winning support from the requisite 10 Senate Republicans, raising hopes that a bill would soon hit Biden’s desk. Those dreams are now on hold through (at least) the midterms, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), the bill’s chief sponsor, told reporters on Thursday. “Earlier in the day, the group of five senators leading talks on the bill recommended to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer that a vote occur after the election after several Republicans called for a delay,” writes Burgess Everett. “Democrats had planned to hold a vote as soon as Monday.” There’s a real risk to this approach: If Republicans are able to flip the Senate, there could be little appetite to jump on board and support a Democratic priority during a lame-duck session. Senate reporter Marianne LeVine joins Playbook Daily Briefing to explain how we got here and where the bill might go next. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

“Biden: Tentative railway labor deal reached, averting strike,” AP: “President Joe Biden said Thursday a tentative railway labor agreement has been reached, averting a potentially devastating strike before the pivotal midterm elections. He said the tentative deal ‘will keep our critical rail system working and avoid disruption of our economy.’” And NYT’s Peter Baker and The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser, two old friends of Playbook (Susan was POLITICO’s editor from 2014-2016), will release "THE DIVIDER: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021," on Tuesday. But after The Guardian’s resourceful Martin Pengelly snagged a copy early, the book’s embargo was lifted last night, leading to a flurry of coverage. In the NYT, Baker himself writes up an incredible account from the book about the time Trump’s friend, the cosmetics billionaire Ronald Lauder, convinced him that the U.S. could buy Greenland. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, most Republicans stuck to a simple message: The decision merely sent the issue back to the states; it was not a prelude to any national ban on abortion. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) tossed all that out the window Tuesday, dropping a bill that would implement a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy while allowing states to pass more restrictive laws. The immediate effect was to put fellow Republicans, who had already been on their heels over Roe’s reversal, straight onto their butts. And senior legal affairs reporter Josh Gerstein and POLITICO founding editor John Harris discuss the life of Ken Starr, who passed away yesterday at the age of 76. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Back in July, a coalition of civil rights and reproductive rights groups pushed President Joe Biden for “continued leadership” in the wake of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, requesting a POTUS meeting. On Monday evening, they got their meeting — with VP Kamala Harris, who spent about 90 minutes with the groups’ leaders. Her message, attendees said, echoed the rising sentiment in Democratic circles that abortion rights stand to be a key motivating factor in the midterms — and she said the Biden administration would continue raising the salience of the issue. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

We’re keeping our eyes on three big things this week when senators return this afternoon: 1. The brewing Manchin-Sanders faceoff. 2. The status of the marriage bill. 3. How will the White House handle the new Taiwan bill? And Playbook's Eugene Daniels chats with New York magazine reporter (and former POLITICO) Gabriel Debenedetti about his new book, “The Long Alliance,” that comes out Tuesday. In it, he explores the complex and — as he puts it — “misunderstood relationship” between President Joe Biden and Barack Obama. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

As expected, the Justice Department said on Thursday that it will likely move forward with an appeal of Judge Aileen Cannon's recent decision largely blocking DOJ’s use of materials seized at Mar-a-Lago and appointing a special master. But in the meantime, the government tried a new approach to convince Cannon to rethink her recent decision, at least when it comes to the key documents seized from Mar-a-Lago by the FBI. And Politico's health care reporter Alice Miranda Ollstein explains the Michigan Supreme Court ruling that an abortion amendment must appear on its November ballot. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Kara Swisher knows when to fold ‘em Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It would have been unthinkable just a few months ago, let alone a decade ago, but senators of both parties are increasingly optimistic they can overcome a filibuster and pass a bill enshrining same-sex and interracial marriage into law as soon as this month. On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters a same-sex marriage vote “will happen on the Senate floor in the coming weeks.” But there are potential land mines. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Legal pundits have had another day to digest Monday’s confounding opinion from Judge Aileen Cannon. Recall that the 41-year-old Trump appointee (who was confirmed in the days after the 2020 election) granted the former president’s request to appoint a special master to review the documents taken from Mar-a-Lago, and enjoined the Department of Justice “from reviewing and using the seized materials for investigative purposes.” She ordered the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to continue its damage assessment review of the documents. Lawyers are, by definition, a quarrelsome bunch, and members of the pundit bar are especially quick to second-guess any opinions that aren’t theirs. But they are also as ideologically divided as the rest of the country. So it’s notable that while Cannon has had little trouble finding political support for her decision, she has been largely alone when it comes to support for her legal arguments. And Senate Republicans tried to tamp down the burgeoning feud between Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC Chair Rick Scott (Fla.) over campaign strategy at a Tuesday meeting, Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report. “Republican senators said after the meeting that there was little talk inside McConnell’s leadership suite of a split between Scott and the GOP leader. Still, the divide hung over the Senate’s return like Washington’s steamy early September weather.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Labor Day has long served as the unofficial kickoff of election season: More voters start to pay attention, political TV ads become inescapable, volunteers knock on doors and pollsters adjust their samples from “registered voters” to “likely voters.” Now, with Labor Day behind us, here’s the lay of the land just nine short weeks away from Election Day, per POLITICO’s just-updated forecast. The Senate is a toss-up, with the previous forecast leaning Republican. The House is likely going to flip Republican, with a previous forecast of likely Republican. Today, we dive into some of the reasons behind both. Kara Tabor is an audio producer for POLITICO Audio.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

There was a lot going on in President Joe Biden's 24-minute primetime speech at Philadelphia’s Independence Hall Thursday night. If you felt some whiplash listening to Biden, you’re not alone. We are in the midst of a confusing and turbulent political period 10 weeks before the midterms, and it seemed to us that Biden was attempting to weave together and make sense of a lot of contradictory political currents. At its core, the speech was about an issue as grave as any that a president might address: what Biden described as “an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic.” Kara Tabor is an audio producer for POLITICO Audio.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It's a shocker in Alaska as Democrat Mary Peltola won Alaska’s special election on Wednesday, making her “the first Alaska Native in Congress,” the Anchorage Daily News’ Iris Samuels reports. Peltola is also the first person elected via the state’s new ranked-choice voting system. “Peltola topped Republican former Gov. Sarah Palin after ballots were tallied and after votes for third-place GOP candidate Nick Begich III were redistributed to his supporters’ second choices. Peltola, a Yup’ik former state lawmaker who calls Bethel home, is now slated to be the first woman to hold Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat.” Peltola, Palin and Begich will face off again in November for a full term. While Washington chews on headlines about President Joe Biden's pre-midterm road blitz and former President Donald Trump's legal jeopardy, an American city of more than 150,000 people is struggling to deliver clean drinking water to its residents. There’s no clear end in sight to the crisis in Jackson, Miss., which was sparked by record rainfall that flooded the Pearl River but is rooted in much more persistent issues of public disinvestment, political neglect and racial inequity. As with Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey, as well as the water crisis in Flint, Mich., majority-Black communities are left bearing the brunt of the dysfunction — not just during a crisis, but for years before and after. Kara Tabor is an audio producer for POLITICO Audio.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Just minutes before a midnight deadline, the Justice Department filed a stunning response to former President Donald Trump’s request for an independent review of the documents seized from his Florida home earlier this month. The 36-page document is chock-full of previously unknown information, providing an extensive timeline of how the government worked to recover classified material before the unprecedented search of Mar-a-Lago. It is the clearest and most detailed account yet offered of the steps taken before the search and forcefully rebuts attacks from Trump and his allies. It going so far to claim that “government records were likely concealed” from prosecutors and “efforts were likely taken to obstruct the government’s investigation.” The DOJ filing says Trump’s request for a special master “is unnecessary and would significantly harm important governmental interests,” dismissing it as an attempt to slow down the investigation. It also claims Trump has no standing to sue because the records belong to the government, not to him. And, notably, prosecutors placed a photo of some of the seized documents — strewn across a Mar-a-Lago carpet with their classified markings plain to see — into the public court record. Trump and his allies have claimed executive privilege over the documents, but prosecutors rejected that assertion — arguing that executive privilege is usually invoked to protect communications from the legislative or judicial branch, not within the executive branch itself. The prosecution team, led by DOJ counterintelligence chief Jay Bratt, also points out that Trump never once asserted executive privilege or declassified the documents prior to the search. Kara Tabor is an audio producer for POLITICO Audio.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

As a policy issue, crime, like inflation and immigration, has consistently been a political vulnerability for Joe Biden and the Democrats. Republicans have seized on the national spike in murders — almost 30% in 2020, when, um, Trump was president — the “defund the police” movement, and criminal justice reform policies pursued by unpopular progressive prosecutors who have faced a backlash even from liberals, such as San Francisco’s Chesa Boudin, who was recalled, and Los Angeles’s George Gascón, who recently dodged a similar effort. For more than a year, Biden has been on the defensive on these issues, tacking to the middle and adjusting his language. Now, suddenly, White House aides tell Playbook they believe Biden can play offense. Today in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Biden will not just defend his record and spotlight the recent bipartisan gun safety package he signed into law, he’ll attack the GOP as soft on crime — for its record on guns, its defense of Jan. 6 criminals, and, most interestingly, its recent response to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. Kara Tabor is an audio producer for POLITICO Audio.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Today is launch day for the Space Launch System Rocket, which will push the Orion spacecraft on a trajectory to orbit the moon. It lifts off at 8:33 a.m. Eastern time from the ​​Kennedy Space Center in Florida. NASA TV’s stream of the enormous 30-story tall rocket is already live with a countdown clock. This is a big day for VP Kamala Harris. There have occasionally been snickers about the fact that the vice president chairs the administration’s National Space Council. Today the potential upside of that assignment will take center stage. If all goes well, in six days, the unmanned Orion capsule — which can accommodate four astronauts in future missions — will begin orbiting the moon from a distance of some 43,000 miles from the lunar surface. Kara Tabor is an audio producer for POLITICO Audio.Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The deadline for the Justice Department to unseal a redacted version of the affidavit used to secure the FBI warrant for the Mar-a-Lago search is noon today (absent a last-minute appeal). Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: Judge Bruce Reinhart “emphasized that prosecutors had shown ‘good cause’ to redact elements of the affidavit that would reveal ‘the identities of witnesses, law enforcement agents, and uncharged parties,’ ‘the investigation’s strategy, direction, scope, sources, and methods’ and ‘grand jury information.’ And Victoria Guida joins from Jackson Hole, Wyo.: “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will face a room of economists and a world of observers as he aims to send a message that the central bank will not falter in its fight to bring down inflation. One bit of awkwardness that might make his task harder: Powell last year at the same conference predicted that price spikes were likely to be temporary. (They were not.)” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The Biden administration on Wednesday announced it was canceling up to $10,000 of student debt for millions of people and up to $20,000 of debt for low- and middle-income borrowers who previously received a Pell Grant. But Biden’s long-awaited plan to cancel some student debt, one of the most contentious issues dividing Democrats, has reignited the intra-party policy wars. Politico's education reporter Michael Stratford explains how deliberations went down and how it will play in the midterms. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It’s time to adjust your expectations for November. For weeks, pundits have homed in on the special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District as a national bellwether. The seat is a true toss-up — one of those rare districts won by Barack Obama in 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 — and the national parties responded appropriately, sending in huge sums of money and organizational resources to win it. The race would offer a trial run of the parties’ general election messages. Democrat Pat Ryan's “ads hammered on the need to elect a representative who would fight for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June decision undoing Roe v. Wade,” writes Bill Mahoney, while Republican Marc Molinaro's campaign “centered on crime and inflation.” Last night, Ryan defeated Molinaro. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Some of the year’s most consequential (and highly anticipated) primary battles will be decided tonight in two of the largest states in the country: New York and Florida. Sunshine State Democrats will settle on a nominee to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis as his national star ascends. In one corner, there’s Charlie Crist, the current Democratic congressman and former Republican governor. In the other is state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. Politico's Florida Playbook author Gary Fineout joins the show from Florida to tell you what you need to know. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It’s been a long time (months? years?) since we’ve seen national Democrats in such a good mood about their electoral chances. Over the last few weeks — amid a spate of legislative movement, falling gas prices, stumbling Republican Senate candidates and the sense of a growing backlash to efforts to restrict abortion — the fight for control of Congress seems to have tightened. Gone are the days when pundits confidently predicted a red tsunami. The latest NBC News poll — which still shows Republicans with a lead in the generic congressional ballot — had two data points that stuck out to us: 1. Democrats have almost eliminated the enthusiasm gap with Republicans. “According to the survey, 68% of Republicans express a high level of interest in the upcoming election … versus 66% for Democrats,” notes Mark Murray. “That 2-point GOP advantage is down from 17 points in March and 8 points in May.” 2. Voters ranked “threats to democracy” as a more important issue than cost of living. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Our colleagues have a pair of stories up this morning as election attention turns to the Empire State’s Tuesday primary. — “Want to know if a red wave is happening? Watch this special election next week,” by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris. The race to succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado in New York’s 19th district next week will offer one of two signals about the 2022 election: It will either (1) preview the pain headed the Democratic Party’s way in November, or (2) provide powerful evidence that a Republican wave election is not in the offing. Ally and Sarah report from Woodstock, N.Y., that “both parties are dumping money into this Hudson Valley district to notch a short-lived but symbolic victory in the last competitive race before the midterms.” — “Maloney kicks NY-12 campaign into overdrive. But will it be enough?” by Sally Goldenberg and Georgia Rosenberg. Back in Manhattan, Rep. Carolyn Maloney is charging forward in a late push to keep up with fellow Rep. Jerry Nadler in the 12th district’s Democratic primary amid a surge in his support over recent weeks (he nabbed the endorsement of the NYT and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer). Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Ron Klain says ‘season of substance’ could save Dems Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Twelve weeks before the midterm elections, Republicans’ hopes of retaking the Senate rest on a slate of Donald Trump's hand-picked nominees. And, across the board, they appear to be struggling. In Pennsylvania, a ferocious Democratic campaign to paint Mehmet Oz as an out-of-touch carpetbagger has left him trailing in multiple polls. Herschel Walker may be a Georgia Bulldogs legend, but key voters appear to be doubting him after a series of gaffes and abuse allegations. The backing of Silicon Valley titan Peter Thiel hasn't yet been enough to sell Blake Masters' sharp-edged conservatism to Arizona voters. Yes, it's still early. Yes, Democrats have been on a bit of a winning streak lately. And, yes, plenty is going to change before Nov. 8. But with only one competitive state (New Hampshire) yet to select its Senate nominee, the picture is clear: Democrats across the country are finding ways to run ahead — sometimes well ahead — of Joe Biden's approval ratings. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Rep. Liz Cheney is wasting no time beginning the next phase of her bid to prevent Donald Trump's return to office. “In coming weeks, Liz will be launching an organization to educate the American people about the ongoing threat to our Republic, and to mobilize a unified effort to oppose any Donald Trump campaign for president,” Cheney spokesperson Jeremy Adler tells Playbook exclusively. The new group, which will serve as Cheney’s primary political vehicle as she considers whether to run for president in 2024, does not have an official name yet. An informed guess: The Great Task, which was the name of Cheney’s final ad of the campaign. The phrase is from the last sentence of the Gettysburg Address, and Cheney also referenced it in her concession speech from Jackson, Wyo., last night. Cheney will be on NBC’s “Today Show” at 7 a.m. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

President Joe Biden and his entire administration are readying for a roadshow with a simple message: We did what we said we would do. The White House, looking to capitalize on his string of policy and political wins, is launching a travel and media blitz over the next few weeks as it looks to beat the historical midterm odds in less than three months. The details of the victory lap were outlined in a White House memo from deputy chief of staff Jen O'Malley Dillon and senior adviser Anita Dunn to chief of staff Ron Klain, exclusively obtained by Playbook. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Donald Trump will not oppose the Justice Department’s motion to unseal the search warrant approved by a federal court in West Palm Beach on August 5 and a partially redacted property receipt listing the items seized during the FBI search. (The redactions, according to the government, “remove the names of law enforcement personnel who executed the search,” which seems to indicate that they do not remove any information about the items seized.) Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the government’s filing Thursday afternoon at an unusual two-minute briefing at the Department of Justice. His reason for unsealing the documents? “The department filed the motion to make public the warrant and receipt in light of the former president’s public confirmation of the search, the surrounding circumstances, and the substantial public interest in this matter.” It seems likely that Garland would not have asked the court to make the warrant and property receipt public if Trump had not gone nuclear with his accusations that the attorney general and FBI had weaponized law enforcement against him. Garland, as many observers put it, called Trump’s bluff. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

There are two stories worth your time this morning: one about Donald Trump in the Wall Street Journal and one about Joe Biden in the Washington Post. They intersect with each other in a way that gets to the heart of the most profound question in American politics. First: There’s a government informant inside Trump’s inner circle. (Awake now?) That’s the takeaway from WSJ’s Alex Leary, Aruna Viswanatha and Sadie Gurman, who retell the tale of the Mar-a-Lago records caper with important new details. Second: The second story worthy of your time is Michael Scherer, Ashley Parker and Tyler Pager’s account of recent meetings between Joe Biden and a circle of policy, political and academic experts from outside the administration. The meetings follow Biden’s promise to do more outreach — to seek “more input, more information, more constructive criticism about what I should and shouldn’t be doing,” as he put it during a news conference in January. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It’s been two days since the FBI searched Trump’s Florida home, spurring loud calls for transparency at Justice. But Trump’s lawyers have the warrant and a detailed manifest of what the FBI took away. Why haven’t they been released? We asked Trump lawyer Christina Bobb, who was at Mar-a-Lago during the search, and will report back what we hear. Both Bobb and a second Trump lawyer, Lindsey Halligan, who was also present for the search, gave interviews on Tuesday and filled in some details. CBS News: “Halligan received a call at around 10 a.m. Monday that FBI agents were at Trump’s Palm Beach home, Mar-a-Lago, and they had a search warrant. She was the second Trump attorney to arrive on scene, at about 11 a.m, after the search had begun. Christina Bobb, who used to be a TV host on the far right OAN Network, was already there. “Over the next eight hours, Halligan said 30-40 FBI personnel conducted the search. There were a handful dressed in suits, but most wore t-shirts, cargo pants, masks and gloves. Halligan estimates 10-15 FBI vehicles went in and out of the property, including a Ryder truck. … Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The news of the FBI search on Mar-a-Lago, the most aggressive law enforcement action ever taken against a former American president, broke last night in the most understated way imaginable. Peter Schorsch of FlordiaPolitics.com just tweeted it out: “Scoop — The Federal Bureau of Investigation @FBI today executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, two sources confirm to @Fla_Pol.” (Not even an all caps “SCOOP!”) In an age where bragging about reportorial prowess is normal, Schorsch was charmingly humble: “Not sure what the search warrant was about. TBH, I’m not a strong enough reporter to hunt this down, but it’s real.” It was indeed real, as Donald Trump confirmed within the hour. “[M]y beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,” the former president said in a lengthy statement. “They even broke into my safe!” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

We know readers love tick-tocks, those now-it-can-be-told accounts of what really went on that appear soon after a bill is safely passed. This morning, there are several good ones about how the Inflation Reduction Act made it through the Senate. Today's Playbook, written edition, chopped them up, rearranged them, added our own reporting, and, in what we hope is a recurring feature, present Playbook’s master narrative of how it all went down. But two pivotal dates jump out: July 15 and July 18. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

New Jobs Report — The July unemployment report drops at 8:30 a.m. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, and economists are predicting a gain of 250,000 jobs for July. Yesterday, the White House called the anticipated drop an expected “transition” from “record-high-breaking jobs numbers” to “stable and steady growth.” Sinema on Board — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reached a deal last night to secure her vote for the reconciliation bill. In the end, she wasn’t hard to get. Democrats wanted to raise $14 billion by narrowing the carried interest loophole. Sinema wanted the provision removed. Instead, Burgess Everett and Marianne Levine report, Democrats added “a new 1 percent excise tax on stock buybacks that will bring in $73 billion, far more than the $14 billion raised by the carried interest provision, according to a Democrat familiar with the deal.” What else she got: “The deal with Sinema also adds roughly $5 billion in drought resiliency to the bill, according to another person familiar, and changes portions of the corporate minimum tax structure to remove accelerated depreciation of investments from the agreement. That depreciation-related change will cost about $40 billion. All told, the agreement with Sinema is expected to increase the bill’s original $300 billion deficit reduction figure.” Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Biden's big bill: Two GOP strategists on how to kill it Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

As the Senate moves onto the Inflation Reduction Act, bipartisanship is not in the cards. The two biggest obstacles remaining before Majority Leader Chuck Schumer can celebrate the best end of summer Labor Day party of his life are Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth McDonough. The latest reporting suggests that Sinema is eyeing three changes: — Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine scooped yesterday that Sinema wanted to (1) nix the carried interest loophole pay-for, which represents less than 2% of the financing for the bill, and (2) add some $5 billion in drought resiliency funding. — WaPo’s Tony Romm and Jeff Stein add that Sinema also seems to be (3) questioning the bill’s corporate minimum tax, an idea she seemed to endorse last year, though “discussions are fluid” and her “exact requests are unclear.” Bloomberg and Axios also have similar stories with an equally cloudy picture of what exactly she wants to do on the corporate minimum tax. But everyone seems to agree she’s talking to a lot of Arizona business interests about the bill’s tax provisions. Meanwhile, Caitlin Emma and Marianne Levine report that there are at least four policies in the reconciliation bill that their sources believe could be vulnerable to a Byrd Rule challenge before MacDonough, who, as Senate Parliamentarian, is the second most powerful person in Washington (after Sinema) for the next week or so. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

What a night. Millions of voters took to the polls yesterday, and the takeaways are many: the blocked political return of a scandal-plagued former governor, mixed results (once again) for former President Donald Trump, and primary defeats for two incumbent members of Congress seeking reelection. But the most surprising vote — and possibly most wide-reaching — wasn’t a race between two candidates; it came instead on one of the most divisive issues in American life: abortion rights. In Kansas ... It marked the first time since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade that voters had a chance to directly weigh in on abortion rights. By a stunning, roughly 20-point margin, Kansas voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have given state lawmakers the chance to either further restrict or ban abortions in the state. Turnout swelled — “approaching what’s typical for a fall election for governor,” per the AP — and the “no” vote did well not just in Democratic strongholds, but in conservative and rural areas, outperforming Joe Biden's 2020 vote share there. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to land in Taiwan today for a visit that the entire U.S. national security leadership advised her not to take. Three developments overnight: — Asia stocks tanked: “Stocks across Asia dropped on Tuesday morning, as investors prepared for a potential economic fallout” from Pelosi’s trip, per the FT. — Chinese planes buzz median line: “China is ratcheting up military activity around Taiwan ahead of [Pelosi’s visit]. Several Chinese fighter jets flew close to the median line that divides the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday morning, according to a Taiwanese official briefed on the developments, in a reminder to Taipei that Beijing’s air force could reach the island in a matter of minutes. Military units across the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theatre Command, which is in charge of the South China Sea and some Taiwan-related missions, have entered a status of high alert, according to military officials in two neighbouring countries,” per the FT. — U.S. Navy deploys four warships east of Taiwan: “‘While they are able to respond to any eventuality, these are normal, routine deployments,’ [a U.S. Naval] official said, who spoke on the condition of anonymity,” reports Reuters. NYT’s Tom Friedman lays out an impassioned case against the trip: “Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless.” His big argument, backed up with what seems like a significant scoop, is that Joe Biden has successfully restrained China from aiding Russia in its war with Ukraine, and Pelosi’s trip risks triggering confrontations with both countries: Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

This week, the bill that launched a whole lot of Joe Manchin Sunday show hits will be front and center as Democrats get ready to defend the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” (aka the reconciliation bill) as it is parsed by the Senate parliamentarian and gets teed up for a floor vote. But there are still a couple of important hurdles left to clear. And last week, Senate Republicans blocked the passage of the PACT Act, which would expand health care access to veterans exposed to burn pits. Their opposition has spurred swift and widespread backlash. There are a number of significant races being decided this week — including some marquee primaries for Senate and House. Politico's Natalie Allison explains what you should be paying attention to in Arizona and Missouri. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

It’s Day 2 of the Manchin-Schumer deal that vastly expanded Biden’s shrunken legislative ambitions, boosted the morale of Democrats in difficult races and infuriated Congressional Republicans. The White House is ending a week they had long been dreading because of the string of bad economic data they (correctly) anticipated, on a surprisingly high note. Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: Legalizing the trip: One ‘shroom advocate’s playbook Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Last summer, Sen. Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer signed a one-page agreement outlining the West Virginia Democrat’s red lines for a reconciliation bill. The date on that agreement? July 28, 2021. Today is July 28, 2022. One year later to the day, we’ve finally reached the moment many thought would never come: A Manchin-approved reconciliation bill — one he and Schumer brokered in secret after many thought any hope of a sweeping deal was dead — is on the Senate’s doorstep, and it includes provisions for climate change, tax hikes on corporations and health care subsidies.

When Donald Trump arrived in Washington five-plus years ago and delivered his inaugural address, he spoke of “American carnage” and used dark language (“rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones,” “disrepair and decay,” etc.) in previewing his first term as president. But that vision was positively sunny compared to the dark-as-Vantablack outlook he shared Tuesday at the America First Agenda Summit — the clearest articulation yet of his likely 2024 message. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

All eyes will be on a pair of speeches today in Washington, one by the former president and one by the former vice president. Mike Pence, whose scheduled speech yesterday at Heritage was scrapped due to travel issues, speaks at 9 a.m. at Young America's Foundation's National Conservative Student Conference. Stream it via YouTube Donald Trump speaks at 3:00 p.m. at the America First Agenda Summit. Stream it via C-SPAN Because this is Trump world, not only is there the already much-discussed drama of the Trump/Pence speech-off, but there’s new drama over Trump’s choice of venue. Former key Trump aide Peter Navarro is publicly asking Trump not to go forward with the event because he believes that the America First Policy Institute, which is hosting the summit, is insufficiently devoted to Trumpism — or at least what Navarro believes Trumpism to be in a piece headlined “Trump’s ‘Think Tank’ Prepares to Betray Him” for the MAGA-aligned online outlet American Greatness. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

If there’s one thing the White House, economists and basically everyone who thinks about money can agree on, it’s that this is going to be a big week for economic news. — On Tuesday, we get new consumer confidence numbers, a measure which has fallen for two consecutive months. Last month’s report showed the Consumer Confidence Index at its lowest level since February 2021 and the Expectations Index — “consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions,” per the Conference Board — at its lowest level since 2013. — On Wednesday, the Fed will meet and make a decision on just how much to raise interest rates. After the most recent inflation numbers, most observers expect a hike of .75 percentage points. That would be the fourth rate increase this year. — On Thursday, the GDP numbers for the second quarter will drop, and economists expect they’ll show a decline of 1% to 2%. It would be the second straight quarter of decline — which is often seen as signaling a recession. And Playbook's Eugene Daniels chats with POLITICO White House Bureau Chief Jonathan Lemire about his newest book, "The Big Lie." Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

A year and a half later, and we are still learning new things about January 6 — and almost all of the revelations strengthen the case that the January 6 committee has been building about Donald Trump's (perhaps criminal) culpability that day. Merrick Garland has a lot to think about after last night. Five moments will be etched in our minds from last night’s gripping primetime presentation... Listen to this week’s Playbook Deep Dive: He was right about inflation. Biden wasn’t. Larry Summers on what’s coming next, Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

President Joe Biden travels to Wilkes-Barre, Pa., this afternoon to talk about crime, and the White House is announcing a new “Safer America Plan” that details how Biden would spend a previous congressional request for $37 billion to “support law enforcement and crime prevention.” And the eighth public hearing of the Jan. 6 committee, though likely not the last, begins tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern. It’s expected to go on for about two hours and will focus on what Donald Trump did — or refused to do — for 187 minutes at the White House after his speech at the Ellipse and before he finally asked rioters to leave the Capitol. “The story we’re going to tell,” a committee aide said, “is that in that time, President Trump refused to act to defend the Capitol as a violent mob stormed” it. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

About Last Night — “Trump wins proxy war with Hogan in Maryland primary — boosted by Democrats,” by Zach Montellaro In the Republican primary: Dan Cox, a state delegate “who has full-throatedly embraced [Donald] Trump's repeated falsehoods about fraud in the 2020 election, scored the former president a win in his fight with [Gov. Larry] Hogan,” defeating the Hogan-endorsed Kelly Schulz in the gubernatorial primary. In the Democratic primary: With mail ballots yet to be counted (Maryland state law prevents election officials from counting them until Thursday), it’s too early to call. As of this morning, author Wes Moore led the field, with former DNC Chair and Labor Secretary Tom Perez and state Comptroller ​​Peter Pranchot in striking distance. Full results: Maryland statewide and Maryland congressional districts The View from Aspen — The place to be this week to really understand where the country is headed is 1,800 miles away from Washington: Aspen, Colorado, where Biden’s top national security officials — including his CIA director, national security adviser, and top officials from DOJ and Treasury — are gathering with a small cohort of journalists over the next four days for rare on-the-record sessions at the Aspen Security Forum. The full agenda can be found here. We asked Alex, author of POLITICO’s “National Security Daily” newsletter, to weigh in with the three big things he’ll be watching for this week. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

The week's top three storylines to watch: 1. The Jan. 6 committee’s primetime (possible) finale: The panel will hold its eighth hearing Thursday night, using an 8 p.m. slot to explore what Trump did during the 187 minutes before he told his supporters rioting at the Capitol to go home. Will this actually be the committee’s final hearing? 2. Reconciliation in the Senate: On Thursday, the Senate parliamentarian is expected to have so-called Byrd bath arguments on Democrats’ plan to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices. 3. The CHIPS/USICA showdown: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is hoping to tee up a floor vote as soon as Tuesday “to begin the process to move forward a limited competition bill that would include — at a minimum — the emergency funding for CHIPS,” per Schumer’s office. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Late Thursday night, Sen. Joe Manchin effectively killed any chance of major climate-related provisions making their way into Democrats’ reconciliation package. The West Virginian told party leaders that “he would not support an economic package that contains new spending on climate change or includes new tax increases targeting wealthy Americans or corporations,” WaPo’s Tony Romm and Jeff Stein were first to report, “marking a massive setback for party lawmakers who had hoped to advance a central element of their agenda before the midterm elections this fall.” What else he said: “Manchin told Democratic leaders he was open to changing federal laws that might lower prescription drugs costs for seniors… And the West Virginia moderate expressed support … for extended subsidies that will help keep health insurance costs down for millions of Americans for the next two years…” Listen to Playbook Deep Dive: LA wants to recall its most progressive prosecutor. Inside the DA’s hostile office. Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Inflation hit a 41-year high on Tuesday, as the consumer price index accelerated to 9.1% in June. More from WSJ That, in turn, affects what might be Biden’s last, best shot at a deal on reconciliation. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said the new numbers make him “more cautious than I’ve ever been” in reconciliation talks, he told reporters. “Everything needs to be scrubbed, anything that can be inflationary.” AP’s Alan Fram: “It was unclear what impact Manchin’s comments would have on his closed-door talks with Schumer, which have shown progress lately. But they suggested he believed the day’s inflation report strengthened his leverage in that bargaining and, beyond that, in winning enough Democratic votes to push any agreement through the tightly divided Congress.” Which brings us to an emerging source of anxiety for Dems in negotiations: Taxes. Democrats have long campaigned on raising tax rates on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations — and Manchin himself wants to use reconciliation to revisit the issue in the context of deficit reduction. But now, Dems are agonizing over the potential political pitfalls that come with raising taxes in an election year, as Burgess Everett and Sarah Ferris write this morning. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Clip of the day — CNN’s coverage of Tuesday’s Jan. 6 committee hearing gave way to one of the more surreal exchanges we’ve seen on cable news, as Jake Tapper and former national security adviser John Bolton discussed some Jan. 6 participants’ attempts to overthrow the government: Tapper: “One doesn’t have to be brilliant to attempt a coup.” Bolton: “I disagree with that. As somebody who has helped plan coups d’etat — not here, but other places — it takes a lot of work.” About that hearing — Tuesday’s hearing was cut into two different parts: Donald Trump's call to action, and his supporters’ response. Pieced together, they amount to this: The members of the Jan. 6 panel “are laying out an unmistakable map to a potential criminal case against the former president,” as Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu write. .

Today at 1 p.m. Eastern, the House Jan. 6 committee “plans to make its most complex case yet,” write Nicholas Wu and Kyle Cheney: “that Donald Trump's words and actions influenced extremists and brought them to the steps of the Capitol.” Central to that case is Trump’s tweet on Dec. 19, 2020: “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Rep. Stephanie Murphy's (D-Fla.) described that tweet as a “clarion call” to members of the far-right Proud Boys and Oath Keepers. “We’ll show you how they began to organize around that date,” she said in an interview. Doing so, Nick and Kyle write, “will require investigators to delve into the sordid world of internet extremism and specifically lay out how Trump’s words rippled through its corners.” Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.

Breaking — Kyle Cheney: “Former President Donald Trump’s attorney Justin Clark interviewed with federal investigators two weeks ago, the Justice Department revealed in a court filing early Monday morning, a significant development that could reverberate in multiple investigations facing Trump’s inner circle.” Siren for House Dems — “House GOP marches into deeper blue terrain as Dem prospects fade,” by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris. Siren for Senate Repubs — “Candidate challenges, primary scars have GOP worried about Senate chances,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer, Colby Itkowitz and Josh Dawsey. Siren for Biden — “Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher. Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.