The Julia La Roche Show

Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research, an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 56. In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis. He outlines why he’s recently been more bullish on equities and risk assets in at least a year. According to Burns, the economy is “not great, but it’s not as bad as expected.” He pointed out that the market had priced in much of last year's pessimism. Moreover, he’s not expecting an imminent recession like many were at the end of last year, noting that it’s, “at least being put off, if not, delayed until maybe in the next year.” Sam has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Sam worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process. We also provide customized work and special research projects for clients. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Background 2:53 Building an independent research firm 3:23 Combining top-down macro research with bottom-up analysis 5:36 Macro analysis 6:15 Distortions in the data 7:00 The economy is doing OK 7:46 Don’t think we’re heading for an imminent recession 8:45 Things aren’t going to be as bad as the bears are saying 9:49 Fed rate hikes impact on the economy 13:19 Why has the labor market held up? 17:30 Inflation 21:45 Can we get back to the 2% target? 25:50 Fiscal policy 29:44 Debt 33:09 Assessment of the markets 36:07 Opportunities 52:41 Yield curve

James Grant (@grantspub), founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a leading journal on financial markets since 1983, joins Julia La Roche on episode 55. Jim Grant is also the author of multiple financial history and biography books. His journalism has been featured in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs. He has appeared on 60 Minutes, Jim Lehrer’s News Hour, and CBS Evening News.   In this episode, Jim and Julia covered the monetary realm, the U.S. dollar, the U.S. indebtedness, gold, the Federal Reserve, inflation, bonds, and more.    According to Jim, the theme in the short run is disinflation, but inflation is for the long term. "We've boiled this down to a couple of headlines: We think that inflation is for the long term. We think that this is inherently inflationary setup we have with runaway public borrowing and with an unchecked and undisciplined engine of credit creation —the Fed — so inflation for the long run. But for the short term, we think it's things rather disinflationary, meaning the rate of rise and inflation is going to subside. And conditions will tighten for the financial markets,” Jim tells Julia, adding that, "Inflation is never transitory, at least not in the modern era, because prices never come down again, when they go up, they stay up."  0:00 Intro 0:38 How we got here 1:30 Monetary realm as an area of concern 2:29 Defining the dollar 2:57 Biggest change in sweep of financial history 4:30 Gold standard 5:50 Defining the dollar? How has it evolved 6:50 Weaknesses of the dollar 9:47 Lockdowns wouldn’t have been feasible 10:30 Origins of the great bulge in public debt 13:55 Fed actions during pandemic 16:43 Excesses in our financial and fiscal lives haven’t been fully felt yet 17:37 Rate of growth in debt far outstripping means to service it 20:30 Fed is going to carry us all into the poorhouse 22:00 Worrying about the debt 26:59 Outlook on the U.S. dollar 28:30 A poisoned chalice 30:00 Better if we lost the world reserve currency franchise 32:57 Gold 36:06 Central bank gold buying 38:20 Higher for longer? 41:00 Why the Fed might retreat? 45:00 Inverted yield curve 49:00 Does the yield curve predict a recession? 51:30 Bond market and interest conundrum 58:00 The Forgotten Depression 1:01:00 Setting up Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Ted Oakley is Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors. With more than forty years of experience in advising high net worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Reaction to CPI 1:09 Fed pivot not going to happen 1:45 Jay Powell is serious about getting inflation down 2:38 Many in the industry haven’t experienced higher rates 3:00 Biases 5:00 Things will likely be more volatile the next 10 years 6:03 60/40 risk parity trade 7:10 There always comes a change in investing 8:04 Volatility in rates could reflect to volatility in bond prices 10:45 Stock picking 12:26 Macro outlook 14:20 Markets aren’t priced correctly 15:10 50% liquidity 16:20 Not timing the market, timing the value 17:00 Earnings 18:00 Assessment of markets so far in 2023 19:09 Sobering up in markets 20:00 Capitulation? 23:00 What would happen if the Fed cut rates 23:30 Debt situation 26:00 Real estate 29:08 Housing 34:00 Opportunities 34:49 Gold and gold miners 38:52 Gold continued 41:00 Bitcoin 43:20 Super bubble and what a normalized investing environment looks like 48:00 Backstory, work with foster children

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, "Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity," joins Julia La Roche on episode 53 to provide a deep dive on what is global liquidity, why it matters, and how it drives markets.  Michael points out that liquidity is inflecting upwards and explains what's driving that move and the implications for markets, which are sensitive to these infections. What's more, with the liquidity cycle inflecting upward, the economy will likely see a turning point in the U.S., which Michael predicts will happen around May. He believes there will be a few more months of softness, but we're near "a turning point."  While many believe an inverted yield curve warns us that a recession is fast approaching, Michael explains why it's a flaky predictor and how term premia bias the yield curve. Julia and Michael also explore some of the themes from the book, "Capital Wars," including that as the investment world has gotten bigger, it's become more volatile, where financial crises are more common. They also touch upon the intensifying tussle between the U.S. and China as the dominant financial economy.  Michael founded CrossBorder Capital in 1996. He developed the quantitative liquidity research methodology while he was Research Director at Salomon Bros. from 1986. He was subsequently appointed Head of Research at Baring Securities in 1992, and was top-ranked "Emerging Market Strategist" by institutional investors for the three years before setting up CrossBorder Capital. Michael has worked in financial markets since 1981 and is a regular international conference speaker. He is a qualified US Supervisory Analyst and has a Doctorate in Economics. 0:00 Intro  0:31 Macro view 1:00 Understanding money flows  1:30 Salomon Brothers  3:35 What is liquidity and what is it signaling today 5:00 Financial markets suddenly kickstarted upwards  6:00 Crypto is purely a liquidity phenomenon  7:00 Tech bouncing significantly as liquidity has picked up  7:15 Why is liquidity turning up?  8:00 China  9:30 What's happening in the big economies 11:15 Liquidity conditions from Fed have picked up  12:50 Q.T. is dead effectively is dead in the U.S.  13:27 Implications for markets  15:06 Term premia for bond investors  17:50 Why the inverted yield curve is a flaky predictor of a recession 18:08 What are fixed-income markets signaling?  18:28 Think of the stock market as a predictor of the economy  19:09 Close to an inflection point on the economy  22:37 Global financial system is now collateral based  23:00 Term premia is biasing the 10-2 yield curve  25:34 Good reasons why the yield curve is distorted  26:19 Evidence the Fed is in control  26:45 Ukraine War 28:48 U.S. is the cleanest shirt in the laundry  29:50 Ultimate job of central banks is financial stability  31:30 Capital Wars  35:00 As the world gets bigger it becomes more volatile  35:19 China's ambition to unseat the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency  38:40 Understanding equity markets  40:17 Tech stocks  41:30 Credit is dependent upon collateral  44:13 Debt mountain has grown  47:00 Financial crises will appear more regularly in the future  47:35 Japan is the canary in the coal mine  50:00 Threat to the financial system  51:15 Need liquidity because of debt  52:00 Financial markets of Victorian London  53:17 Yield curve control is coming klTK j

"Reformed" hedge fund manager James Lavish (@jameslavish), the author of The Informationist, joins Julia La Roche on episode 52 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro and a deep dive into the debt problem in the U.S.  In this episode, Lavish makes a case that the world has changed in a way that the market understands, and that is — we can't go into economic turmoil because we're walking a "very thin tightrope over a cliff" because of the massive amounts of debt in the U.S. Lavish explained that the tax base in the U.S. currently brings in about $4.6 trillion, which could get impacted by a recession. At this same time, a massive amount of entitlement spending goes to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and unemployment in addition to long-term contracts for defense spending and, finally, interest payments on bonds we've issued. Adding up all those expenditures, it's over $6 trillion annually, so the U.S. is spending $1.4 trillion more than its bringing in tax revenue. As Lavish puts it, if the U.S. were a company, it would be considered a "Zombie."  "The Fed's got to either lower rates to appease The Treasury because the Treasury has got all these payments it's got to make, or [The Fed's] got to somehow get inflation under control without crippling the economy. It's a problem," Lavish said on the show. Right now, the U.S. is in a precarious position. The big picture is this tension between inflation versus recession, where the Treasury needs inflation to help inflate away all this accumulated debt, while at the same time, the Fed wants to curb inflation via rate hikes and quantitative tightening, which creates a risk of pushing the economy into recession.  As Lavish puts it, the Fed and the Treasury are "painted into a really tight corner here, and the market knows it. And they know the first sniff of what would be instead of inflation — deflation — the first sniff of that, the Fed's got to print again."  It's one of the reasons Lavish, currently launching a hedge fund, The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund for accredited investors, wants to own bitcoin because it's a system that doesn't depend on inflation.  0:00 Intro 0:41 Macro view 2:00 Understanding money 2:50 Inflation vs. Recession 4:00 Market participants terrified of missing the pivot 6:00 Why did the market melt-up on Thursday 7:54 Market conditioned to Fed put 11:00 We can’t go into economic turmoil because we’ve got so much debt 12:20 Fed and Treasury painted into a tight corner 15:42 How does the sovereign economy work? 18:20 U.S. is essentially a “Zombie” country 20:00 We’re in a debt spiral 23:00 We’re going toward Japan 28:00 There’s no longer free money 29:40 High probability of a credit event 30:40 Money printing is the root of all evil 33:50 Bitcoin thesis 36:00 Money will continue to pour into Bitcoin 38:40 Bitcoin is still seen as a risk asset 42:00 Bitcoin Opportunity Fund 46:00 Bitcoin should not be correlated to anything 47:00 Treasury needs inflation, Fed doesn’t want inflation 49:30 Likelihood of a recession 54:27 Why inflation is higher than what’s reported 58:00 Parting thoughts

Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar), Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group and author of macro newsletter The Boock Report, joins Julia on episode 51 for a wide-ranging conversation on macroeconomics. In this episode, Boockvar makes a case that investors need to get accustomed to a slower rate of growth in this new interest rate environment where rates will stay higher for longer. As Boockvar puts it, it’s a “death by a thousand cuts” economy. The conversation touched on the housing market, the Federal Reserve, earnings, layoffs, China’s reopening, inflation, and much more. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Macro view 1:12 Still in a bear market 2:31 Debt coming due 5:56 A death by a thousand cuts 8:06 A slower rate of growth 9:40 Housing market 10:35 To what extent do home prices fall? 13:58 Economic outlook 15:00 Higher rates relative to inflation is a more healthy environment 17:00 The Fed’s reputation has been shattered 18:03 Powell doesn’t want to repeat the 1970s 19:00 Fed wants market to ‘sober up’ 20:44 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number 25:00 Earnings picture are a headwind for stocks 27:40 White Collar recession 30:24 China’s reopening 31:40 Chinese consumer has been unleashed 34:45 Why oil will go well north of $100 this year 36:30 Playing the China reopening 37:40 U.S. big tech’s best of their stock days are over 40:30 Every investor focused on macro has to keep an eye on BOJ 44:00 How to think about inflation 49:00 Be aware of your investing/economic surroundings 50:08 Boockvar’s marrying macro and micro 53:11 Time horizon is the key to successful investing

Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, joins Julia La Roche on episode 50 for a wide-ranging discussion of the macro environment and Housing — the risk keeping him up at night. In this episode, Roche raises the point that when it comes to macro research, many economists argue that the U.S. economy is a housing economy, meaning when the housing market slows down a lot, it filters through everything else. “It’s really up in the air… Does this environment look more like a 2008-type of slowdown? Is it more like a 2002-ish type of long drawn-out slowdown that nothing really crashes, but things persistently adjust lower?” Roche said on the show. Roche is in more of the 2002 scenario camp, but he notes there’s still an outlier risk of a credit event lurking that’s more akin to a 2008-style event, but that’s a big outlier. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating and review. Email me at [email protected] with any future guest ideas or suggestions. I’d love to hear from you! 0:00 Intro 0:39 Slinging stocks and bonds after college 2:30 Coming full circle to low-cost ETFs 5:40 Understanding the details of what you’re buying 8:45 Big picture macro view 10:40 Process of digesting Fed policies during the pandemic 11:09 The big uncertainty — the housing market 13:38 Housing market is the backbone of everything the credit market is structured around 15:13 House prices boomed 40% during COVID 15:47 Outlier scenario that worries Cullen 17:00 Housing has become a speculative asset 18:45 Looking at the stock market as a multi-decade instrument 20:29 Is your house a great investment? 25:23 Will 2023 be the year of Disinflation? 30:30 Disinflation or deflation? 31:44 Can the Fed remain too aggressive? 38:50 Factor investing 42:20 Bonds 44:40 Importance of understanding time with asset allocation 47:40 Bitcoin as a 90-year instrument 52:00 Parting thoughts

Ric Edelman (@ricedelman), one of the most influential people in the financial planning and investment management profession, joins Julia La Roche on episode 49 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, markets, retirement, Bitcoin, and more. Edelman, ranked three times as the nation’s No. 1 Independent Financial Advisor by Barron’s, is also a best-selling author of a dozen books, including his newest, “The Truth About Crypto.” He’s also a top financial educator, host of The Truth About Your Future Podcast, and the founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP). 0:00 Intro  0:31 Macro view  1:30 Stock market is a leading indicator  2:40 Understanding the difference between the economy and the stock market  4:28 Separate the headlines from your financial planning goals  7:46 Technology is changing everything  9:44 Time to rethink the financial planning process  11:39 People are not financially prepared for retirement  13:22 Social Security  14:33 Rethinking retirement  17:27 Life-long learning 18:48 Higher education paradigm is completely shifting  21:23 Generation wealth transfer  23:19 A formula for how much you need to retire today  26:14 Thoughts on FIRE  29:18 Health of the population is a problem  31:50 No. 1 subject is crypto  33:50 Thoughts on crypto winter  35:40 Thoughts on SBF/FTX fiasco  39:12 Involved in crypto since 2012  45:03 Need for a financial advisor  50:52 Questions to ask an advisor  52:29 Bitcoin $150,000?  57:03 Stock market outlook?

Carol Roth @caroljsroth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche on episode 48 to discuss her last book “The War On Small Business: How The Government Used The Pandemic To Crush The Backbone of America.” Carol’s book highlights how the government's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic favored the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of small businesses. This has led to a consolidation of power and wealth, with small businesses struggling while the stock market reached new highs. According to Carol, this is not a new problem, but the pandemic exposed it. In "The War on Small Business,” Carol details the abuses of power inflicted on small businesses during the pandemic and argues that government is the problem, not the solution. The book also advocates for decentralization to help small businesses and individuals participate in wealth creation. In this episode, Carol discusses how capitalism in the U.S. is being replaced by cronyism, the Fed’s role in this epic wealth transfer, the nonsense surrounding ESG and the nefarious side of that movement, her biggest fear when the next pandemic arises, and more. 0:00 Intro 1:05 “Recovering” investment banker 3:04 Cronyism replacing capitalism in the markets 4:00 Didn’t have Fed tipping the scales and picking winners/losers 5:40 A focus on short-termism 6:15 ESG nonsense 7:23 Why write “The War On Business”? 9:30 The underreported story of the epic wealth transfer 10:40 The “Black Swan” was the government’s reaction to the pandemic 12:50 Partial lockdowns, not full lockdowns 15:00 “All in this together” got “completely bastardized” 16:00 Impact on small business owners like Shelly Luther 19:05 Carol’s “biggest concern” about future pandemics 20:40 Less trust in government, media 21:28 Covid amnesty? 24:30 Importance of small businesses in U.S. 26:38 Central planning is “America’s worst trade deal” 27:33 Capitalism is freedom and choice 30:00 Assessment of capitalism today 32:34 The Federal Reserve is a “failed experiment for the average American” 36:30 Ways to reform the Fed 38:50 The Fed’s actions got us here 41:48 The epic wealth transfer 44:38 Millennials, Gen-Z making more money, but don’t have as much wealth 47:05 Fed’s role in financial institutions buying up homes 47:33 Nefarious side of ESG 50:25 Worried about personal recessions 54:15 Parting thoughts

Joe Fahmy (@jfahmy), a portfolio manager at Zor Capital, LLC, a New York-based investment management firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 47 to share his 2023 market outlook. In this episode, Joe shares his 2023 outlook and why he thinks the biotech sector is poised to outperform the S&P. He also reflects back on lessons gleaned from the challenging environment in 2022. Joe explains why having a big-picture macro view is important, but there’s no need to obsess over it. He also shares why “don’t fight the Fed” has resonated with this trading and investment style in recent years and how folks should think about what that phrase really means. Joe has nearly 25 years of trading experience, during which he developed his investment strategy. His extensive knowledge of technical analysis, market forecasting, and risk management has landed him appearances on Wall Street Week, CNBC, Fox Business, ABC News, and CNN Money. He is a regular contributor to Yahoo Finance. 0:00 2023 market outlook 1:00 Don’t fight the Fed 1:34 Don’t fight the Fed works both ways 2:15 A new uptrend in the market this year? 2:40 What the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” really means 3:30 Understanding the big picture 4:20 Does the macro matter more than ever? 5:30 Important not to be obsessive over macro 6:29 Opportunities in 2023 7:55 Why biotech could outperform the S&P 9:53 Energy thesis 11:13 A return stock picking? 14:00 Where are we headed in the markets? 16:00 The big institutions control the markets. Period. 17:45 How to watch what the biggest players are doing in the market 19:33 A shift in the sentiment? 22:00 Lessons from 2022 25:44 Book recommendations for trading 28:52 What’s Joe watching in 2023? 31:23 When will we see the pause? 32:14 How much does the economic picture matter? 35:00 Parting thoughts

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, now the founder and CEO of newsletter publisher Empire Financial Research, joins Julia La Roche on episode 46 to share some worldly wisdom and his views on the market. The bulk of this conversation focuses on life lessons from his new book “The Art Of Playing Defense: How To Get Ahead By Not Falling Behind.” Whitney outlines five calamities to avoid, including: Loss of reputation and/or wealth Loneliness and/or suffering a permanently impaired relationship with a loved one A bad marriage, often ending in divorce Addiction and abuse The death, serious injury, or illness of yourself or a loved one In this episode, Whitney, 56, revisits his childhood, including growing up in Africa with his educator parents. He also shares whether or not he ate the marshmallow in the famed Stanford marshmallow experiment, a psychological study that examined delayed gratification among young children. He recounts how he met his wife Susan (thanks to his friend Bill Ackman!) and his journey from being the lowest-paid Harvard Business School graduate in his class working for a non-profit to the world of hedge funds (also thanks to Bill Ackman). Throughout the conversation, there are plenty of lessons gleaned over the years from being a long-time student and follower of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Whitney also discusses value investing in the current environment and why he’s “reasonably bullish” and estimates the market could rise 15 to 20% this year. 0:00 The Marshmallow Experiment 4:30 Whitney likely didn’t eat the marshmallow 5:10 Growing up in Tanzania 7:00 Emphasis on education 9:15 Met wife after crashing party with Bill Ackman 10:15 Interest in investing 12:20 Amassed $10K, called up Bill Ackman 13:58 Early days of the internet stocks 14:32 Warren Buffett 15:50 A ‘clueless fool’ turning $20,000 into $120,000 in AOL 17:00 Absolutely no business starting a hedge fund 19:20 Dale Carnegie’s “How To Win Friends And Influence People” 21:18 Lessons for Tilson’s daughters 23:23 Raising athletic daughters 24:30 Price of Privilege 27:00 Sports and self-confidence with teenage daughters 36:00 The most important decision is who you marry 37:00 ‘Fishing in the right ponds’ 39:00 Other important relationships 41:30 Epidemic of loneliness 44:00 Repairing and building relationships 46:10 Scott Galloway 49:00 Avoiding calamities 51:00 Loneliness or ruptured relationships as a calamity 52:48 The 5 calamities 53:30 How not to screw up your marriage 1:05:00 Risk taking and risk management 1:15:08 Reasonably bullish on the markets 1:19:57 Best guest is the market is up 15-20% 1:20:20 Value investing back in favor? 1:22:19 Berkshire Hathaway, Meta (Facebook), Netflix, Amazon, PayPal 1:23:40 Why the average person shouldn’t be picking stocks 1:30:00 Achieving long-term wealth

Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen), senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 45 to discuss macro, markets, Bitcoin, and more. A big theme in the conversation centers around the labor market and the Fed. Franzen discusses the Federal Reserve's prioritizing of three methods for reducing demand to bring down inflation, including creating an inverse wealth effect, increasing the cost of capital, and softening the labor market. The Fed suppressed demand in two of its three approaches, but the dynamics in the labor market are keeping demand elevated and offsetting these effects. That's why the Fed focuses on the labor market softening this year. As Franzen puts it, the labor market is "the last box that they're really looking to check to ensure that inflation is on a sustainable path lower." Franzen makes the case that the Fed balancing the scales of its dual mandate — maximum employment and price stability — will be a thin line for the Fed to walk in 2023, with the labor market being historically tight (full/max employment) and inflation at historically elevated (price instability). 0:00 Macro view 1:05 Historic tightening cycle 2:04 Not a rosy picture for risk assets 3:25 Why the Fed will continue to raise after inversion 5:30 Inflation likely to moderate lower 7:16 A soft landing still on the table? 8:54 3 dynamics that stood out in the NFP data 11:18 The Fed can’t be too happy right now 12:30 Market outlook 16:25 Became macro obsessed in college 20:53 Enthusiasm capitulation then price capitulation 29:08 Bitcoin 30:00 Speculating on bitcoin is dead 36:00 Content diet

Jennifer Sey (@jennifersey) said she was on track to be the first female CEO of Levi Strauss & Co. until she resigned after over two decades at the jeans maker after facing pressure to stay quiet about her opposition to San Francisco’s public school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Throughout the pandemic, Sey was vocal about the policies impacting children, including the closure of schools and playgrounds, the masking of toddlers, learning loss, the increased educational gap, and the mental health crisis among teens that resulted from these closures. In February 2022, Sey, then-Brand President of Levi Strauss & Co., resigned and published an op-ed in Bari Weiss’s Common Sense (now The Free Press) where she revealed that she was offered $1 million in severance if she signed a non-disclosure agreement. She chose to forfeit the money and tell her story in the new book, “Levi’s Unbuttoned: The Woke Mob Took My Job But Gave Me My Voice.”  In this episode, Sey discusses her time at Levis, joining as a marketing assistant in 1999, rising to Chief Marketing Officer, a role she held for several years, and her promotion to Global Brand President in October 2020. In January 2022, she was asked to resign because of her social media posts that were critical of COVID mandates.  Topics featured in the episode include woke capitalism infiltrating corporate America, cancel culture, policy failures during the pandemic, free speech, the political divide, why there shouldn’t be pandemic amnesty, and more.  Sey, the 1986 USA Gymnastics National Champion and a 7-time member of the U.S. Women’s National Team, also revisited her time as an elite gymnast and why she walked away from the sport ahead of the 1988 Olympics. She is the author of the book “Chalked Up,” which detailed the coaching cruelty in the sport, and the producer of the Emmy award-winning documentary “Athlete A.”  0:00 Intro  1:06 An ‘unusual childhood’ as an elite gymnast  2:00 Gymnastics rife with abuse  3:30 Too broken to continue  5:00 Said the thing you’re not supposed to say out loud  6:23 Thoughts on quitting   9:26 Imposter syndrome  12:21 Early career after Stanford  15:50 Overcoming the doubters  18:38 CMO is a very slippery seat  20:00 Live In Levi’s campaign  22:22 No raise, no equity 26:05 No stock payout at the IPO  26:41 ‘Use your voice’  28:00 Speaking out during COVID  30:56 The ‘controversial’ tweets  32:12 An ‘unacceptable’ ‘problematic’ view 33:58 The Fox News appearance  35:00 The viral Twitter thread 35:36 The email before the ‘apology tour’  37:29 A dark time, treated as a ‘toxic employee’  39:00 ‘It’s really cult-like’  39:44 Promoted to brand president in October 2020  40:53 Told she was a candidate for CEO   41:28 Submitted to a background check  43:00 Offered $1M severance to walk away quietly  45:30 Vaccine mandate  46:30 Wrote book to encourage folks to speak up 47:19 Why are people quiet?  48:50 Views on political binary 51:50 A return to corporate America?  53:25 Should there be COVID amnesty?  56:29 Lessons for children 

Jon Hilsenrath of The Wall Street Journal joins Julia La Roche on episode 43 to discuss his new book, "Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval."  In this episode, Hilsenrath discusses his decision to write a book about Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her husband, Nobel laureate economist George Akerlof, in the form of a love story. He highlights the couple's central role in economic debates over the years. He aims to humanize top figures in economics while also incorporating historical lessons and personal lessons about work, family, and more. He also touches on the imperfect nature of capitalism and democracy, the importance of rebuilding trust in institutions, the state of journalism, and his own experiences as the son of a war refugee. He also shares how he got a C in Economics 101 at Duke (Full disclosure: Julia also got a C in Econ 101 at UNC).  Hilsenrath is a senior writer for The Wall Street Journal, where he has written about economics and finance since 1997. He has worked as a writer and editor in Hong Kong, New York and Washington, D.C. Many of his stories have focused on causes and consequences of economic and financial crises. He was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2014 for his coverage of the Federal Reserve; part of a WSJ team that was a Pulitzer finalist in 2009 for coverage of the financial crisis; and contributed on-the-ground reporting to the WSJ’s 9/11 coverage which won a Pulitzer in 2002. He graduated from Duke University in 1989 and was a Knight-Bagehot Fellow and M.B.A. graduate from Columbia Business School in 1996. 0:00 Intro 0:45 A shower idea 2:00 A love story 3:17 4 lessons for breaking glass ceilings 7:35 What did Yellen get right? What did Yellen get wrong? 10:00 Recency bias in economics profession 12:28 Larry Summers 15:00 Late to the Biden Administration 17:00 She’ll be the Treasury Secretary for a little longer 17:55 Yellen, Summers’ approach to an airport 20:30 Human behavior in economics, markets 22:40 Human screw up on both sides of the equation 24:30 Hilsenrath’s takeaways 27:33 Trust is a mess 30:26 Examining issues through Yellen’s story 31:00 Rebuilding, restoring trust 34:58 Hilsenrath’s family story 38:10 Are you proud to be a journalist? 41:59 Jon and Julia both got a C in Econ 101 45:21 Explaining economics through the book, “Yellen” 46:17 Thoughts on “Fed Whisperer” nickname 52:22 Parting thoughts

Dr. Nouriel Roubini (@nouriel), Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, joins Julia La Roche on episode 42 to discuss his newest book, MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them. Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom" due to his tendency to make pessimistic predictions, warned of the housing crisis and impending recession, but it was too late. Roubini is now making another prediction that is even more alarming and should not be overlooked. The world is facing a multitude of interconnected threats, referred to as Megathreats, that have the potential to cause widespread disaster. According to Roubini, these Megathreats are all connected and threaten not only our jobs, income, savings, and wealth but also our health, the planet's health, and even our species' survival. These Megathreats include the worst debt crisis ever seen, excessive money printing by governments, blocked borders for workers and goods, the growing competition between China and the US, and the effects of climate change on heavily populated cities. Roubini says we're "sleepwalking into disaster," and this book is a "wake-up call." Time is of the essence in addressing these issues and attempting to prevent their adverse outcomes. Roubini is also the Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com. He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com. 0:00 Roubini's new book 2:58 Connecting the dots of 10 Megathreats 4:00 World faces the biggest test since WWII 5:50 Mother of all debt crises 11:00 A perfect storm 18:00 Can we go back to 2% inflation without a hard landing? 19:30 Debate is no longer a soft or hard landing 20:42 Not going to be a short and shallow recession 23:42 Factors that could lead to a hard landing 24:00 Central banks are going to blink 24:45 Demographic time bomb 28:50 Intergenerational conflict between young and old 31:40 AI as a megathreat 35:14 AI will usher in a massive increase in income and wealth inequality 36:00 The trouble with UBI 39:00 Threat to our species 41:00 ChatGPT 41:50 Roubini's advice to young people 46:27 Public enemy No. 1 of crypto since 2017 49:40 Crypto is 'the biggest financial fraud in human history' 51:58 Megathreat of financial instability 54:40 US dollar status as the global reserve currency 56:00 Divided world 58:00 De-dollarization, rise in gold 1:00:31 Do you want to own gold right now? 1:03:00 What to own in this scenario? 1:06:38 Global pandemics 1:11:13 Things Roubini never used to worry about 1:13:05 World looks more like the period between 1914 in 194 1:15:20 Sleepwalking into disaster 1:19:00 How do we survive the Megathreats? 1:21:20 Technology is the solution 1:23:00 Parting thoughts

Macro researcher Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch), founder and president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 41.  In this episode, Bianco makes the case that we’ve entered a different market era from 2009 to 2021 and why he doesn’t expect the Fed to cut rates or pivot anytime soon. He also breakdowns this paradox where for the first time most Wall Street strategists expect a decline in the stock market in 2023, which wasn't the case during the Great Recession or after 9/11.  He explains that a recession has become their bull story where the Fed will cut rates and the market will rise. Bianco also outlines how we’ve entered a post-pandemic economy marking the end of an era of cheap goods, labor, and energy. As such, he makes a case for why inflation won’t return to 2%.  Bianco notes that the market going forward will turn into a stock picker’s market versus buying indexes and ETFs and relying on the Fed put. He also outlines opportunities in fixed income, what he’s watching for in equities, and his thoughts on gold. Finally, Bianco weighs in on the FTX fiasco and explains why he’s still a big fan of cryptocurrencies and what’s needed for the space.  0:00 Macro view 0:31 2023 starts off with a divergence 1:10 A different era of persistent inflation 2:14 Market is a liquidity junkie 3:36 Paradox of wanting a recession 5:01 A recession is the bull story 5:35 Bianco’s view on a recession 7:05 What the Fed is hoping for 10:35 Inflation 12:41 Why we won’t get back to 2% 13:11 Watch what the MTA is doing with subway service 14:40 Giant shift in workforce attitude 15:42 China is a disaster right now 18:02 Era of cheap goods, labor, and energy is over 20:30 The path 2% requires killing the economy 23:00 Energy 27:48 What folks are missing on the China reopening story 33:10 Bank of Japan expands trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds 35:58 Japan has an inflation problem 37:00 There’s a developed world inflation problem 38:22 More implications from the BOJ’s surprise move 40:29 It’s now a stock picker’s market 42:26 George Noble 43:33 Fixed income is becoming interesting 45:35 Equities 47:00 More on fixed income 50:45 Thoughts on gold 52:20 GLD 58:09 Thoughts on crypto in the wake of FTX/SBF 1:01:01 Crypto turned into a casino 1:02:48 Banking system is inherently unstable 1:05:37 Impacts of FTX on the crypto industry 1:11:40 Book recommendation

Tom Thornton (@TommyThornton), founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, has had an incredible year amid market turbulence. The former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst has delivered returns of 52% so far in 2022. In this episode, Tom, who focuses on sentiment indicators, explains why markets are nervous and that we haven’t seen a true market capitulation yet. He predicts that in 2023 we might see capitulation as the retail investor starts to give up. Elsewhere, Tom weighs in on his investment process and approach. He also shares his thoughts on the Fed’s rate hikes and why he doesn’t expect any rate cuts next year. He also details his short on Tesla.  Tom has written a daily market note for a select group of hedge fund managers for years and now has offered it for all investors with Hedge Fund Telemetry, which features market sentiment, macro daily insights utilizing DeMark Indicators, sector rotations, and long and short trade ideas with professional commentary and more. 0:00 Approach to markets 4:47 Sizing positions 11:13 Time horizons 13:12 The market is nervous 16:50 Capitulation 18:26 No safe place to hide 22:50 The Fed 27:27 Market’s Fed dependency 38:48 Elon Musk and Tesla 48:08 Hedge Fund Telemetry

Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist at Hightower Advisors and CNBC contributor, Joins Julia La Roche on episode 39 to discuss the Fed’s latest interest rate hike, her economic and market outlook for 2023, her investment process, what makes a great CEO, working with Jim Cramer, and more. Stephanie Link joined Hightower in June 2020 as Chief Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Hightower. Before joining Hightower, Ms. Link was the Senior Managing Director and Head of Global Equities Research at Nuveen. She also served as Chief Investment Officer at TheStreet, Co-Portfolio Manager of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust, and Managing Director of Institutional Sales and Director of Research at Prudential Equity Group. With over 27 years of experience managing money, Ms. Link’s insights are frequently sought after for industry events and by the media, and is a CNBC contributor for several shows, including The Halftime Report, Closing Bell, and Squawk Box. 0:00 Intro 0:00 Reaction to the Fed rate hike 2:33 Should be ratcheting down the hawkishness 3:33 Outlook on rate hikes 4:30 Theory on market reaction to Fed 5:30 Pivot off the table in Q1 7:08 Inflation 9:06 Fed’s 2% inflation target 10:06 Big picture view of the economy 14:45 Investment approach 19:12 Opportunities 23:12 Picking the No. 1 and 2 players 25:00 Betting against consumer is not a great thing 27:12 Evaluating management teams, CEOs 30:22 What makes a great leader? 34:39 Jim Cramer 39:57 Buying when a stock is down 42:00 Pursuing a career in finance/investing 45:00 CNBC 47:40 Sports team 49:20 Routine 51:20 Parting thoughts

Blythe Masters, founding partner at Motive Partners; Brett Redfearn, founder of Panorama Financial Markets Advisory; Liz Von Habsburg, managing director at Winston Art Group; and Carlos Domingo, CEO of Securitize, join Julia La Roche on episode 38. This episode is a recording of a panel from Art Basel hosted by Securitize called “Art & Equity: Expanding Access to High-Quality Assets from Fine Art to Private Equity.” 0:00 Intros 6:27 Defining tokenization, the blockchain 8:51 Use cases for tokenization 10:14 How blockchain, crypto has disappointed many 13:00 Looking at crypto/blockchain through First Principles 15:00 Real-world use cases 16:20 Opportunity to democratize capital markets with blockchain 19:00 Expanding access to art and PE 22:08 Thoughts on FTX fiasco 25:40 Crypto industry’s reaction 28:08 Evolution in art investing through technology 29:20 Short-term pain, long-term gain 30:15 Ownership is an ‘enormous prize’ for blockchain technology 34:00 You can’t break everything 35:28 Basic fundamental problems that could benefit from digitization 37:15 Don’t underestimate what can be done with the existing regulatory framework

Macro expert Axel Merk (@AxelMerk), Chief Investment Officer of and founder of Merk Investments, joins Julia La Roche on episode 37 to discuss monetary policy, the economy, gold, and more. In this episode, Merk details the Federal Reserve's sledgehammer approach to monetary policy and why the central bank will likely push the economy into recession. He also shared his thesis on stagflation.  Merk outlined why next year's market might be "more nuanced." He also shared his outlook on gold, the U.S. dollar, and more.  Axel has grown Merk Investments into a $1 billion investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Macro view 1:45 Sledgehammer approach 2:06 A more nuanced market in 2023 2:49 Central banks trying to fix their mistakes 5:14 Extremely counterproductive policies 6:18 Rates should be coming down 7:27 Fed is basically a debating club 8:11 The Fed needs a new framework 10:38 Why The Fed might pause hikes at the May meeting 13:00 Inflation outlook 16:40 Social implications of policy 19:24 Stagflation thesis 23:00 Investing in gold 25:30 3 types of gold investors 26:56 Gold is the purest indicator of monetary policy 30:24 U.S. Dollar outlook 32:48 What does a more nuanced market look like? 35:40 Merk’s framework 40:20 Why invest in gold miners 45:00 Merk’s journey in the financial markets 49:40 Building and growing a business 51:40 Pilot 53:13 Parting thoughts

Jim Rickards (@jamesgrickards) returns to the Julia La Roche Show for episode 36 to discuss his new book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. In this episode, Rickards shares his macro view and why we may be headed for a global recession. He also provides a deep dive into supply chains, describing when and how they broke down and why they won't return to the way they were before 2019. He also shares the emergence of what he calls "supply chain 2.0," which he predicts will consist of a college of nations. Elsewhere, Rickards discusses his take on inflation and why deflation is coming faster than you might think. Finally, he shares his best asset allocation strategies for these uncertain times. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. 0:00 Jim's new book "Sold Out" 0:54 View of the global macroeconomy 1:37 The supply chain is the economy 3:33 What do China, the war in Ukraine, and climate change have to do with supply chains? 6:58 China's Zero-Covid policy and its possible consequences 12:11 We're looking at a global recession, and that's rare 13:24 The future supply chain will look very different 14:35 Why the supply chains broke down and won't go back to the way they were 20:00 Supply Chain 1.0 23:42 What happened when Trump put tariffs on soybeans 30:24 National security and geopolitics 33:48 A college of nations 39:00 Peak China  42:00 Inflation 47:05 Why the Fed can't do anything about the supply side of the equation 49:49 Disinflation and deflation 51:12 Severe recession 54:34 How long would it take for the Fed to cut rates? 1:01:08 Central bankers' worst nightmare 1:05:10 What would a deflationary scenario mean for the economy?

Dana D’Auria, co-CIO of Envestnet, joins Julia La Roche on episode 35.  D’Auria, an English major, started her career as a journalist on the business beat and transitioned into finance after earning an MBA. A background in writing has been instrumental in the investment world, especially in explaining complex topics.  She spent 14 years at Symmetry Partners, serving as director of research and managing director and portfolio manager before joining Envestnet. The fin-tech b2b company provides technology and tools for financial advisors to offer hyper-personalized experiences for clients’ portfolios.  Elsewhere, D’Auria shared her macroeconomic outlook, what’s top of mind amongst investors and clients, and why value investing is attractive in a rising rate environment.  0:00 Dana’s journey from business journalism to working in finance 2:41 Gaps in the education system as it relates to finance 5:06 Envestnet, explained 8:20 Leveraging insights for client’s portfolios 10:37 How the advent of tech and access to data changes the money management 13:00 Humans + machines 16:28 Rough ride in markets 19:08 Future of the traditional 60/40 portfolio 21:53 Types of bear markets 24:11 What kinds of conversations with clients? 29:27 Value investing 31:42 Market outlook 36:39 Personalizing a portfolio

Carson Block, the activist short seller, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, and host of Zer0es TV and the Zero F**ks Given podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 34. Block rose to prominence over a decade ago by exposing Chinese companies listed in the U.S. that were frauds. He’s best known for his 2011 takedown of Sino-Forest, which overstated its timber holdings and ended up filing for bankruptcy, causing big-name investors to lose hundreds of millions. Block is often referred to as an activist short seller because he conducts in-depth research, takes a position, and publicly releases a report explaining his thesis. In the episode, he explained why he prefers the title “investor journalist.”  In the episode, Block details his two latest short targets — DLocal, a payments company in Uruguay, and Sunrun, a solar panel company. He also shares why ESG is the 2nd "mass investing delusion" he's witnessed. 0:00 Intro 0:31 Origin story as an activist short-selling 1:45 We were getting lied to all the time 2:35 Law School  3:29 Shorting Chinese stocks 5:45 Conflicts of interest, laziness, and ineptitude in the capital markets 6:55 The Sino-Forest short 9:55 Grifting in the ESG space 13:20 The Sunrun short thesis 19:50 Impact of rising rates 21:18 DLocal short thesis 26:28 DLocal’s response 29:40 Block’s process for building a short thesis 35:05 “Investor Journalist” 38:20 Why short selling exists 42:45 How short selling is perceived 45:02 The “Tick The Box Apocalypse”

Jan Van Eck (@janvaneck3), CEO of Van Eck Funds, one of the world’s largest sponsors of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), joins Julia La Roche on episode 33 to discuss the next big investment opportunity in fixed income.  During the conversation, Jan explains why we’re entering a period where bonds will outperform equities. That’s why he thinks investors must be majority weighted in fixed income. He also points out that too many investors are too focused on the next equity rally since they’re accustomed to the Fed put.  The conversation also touched upon Bitcoin and digital assets amid the FTX fiasco. Jan noted that Bitcoin had demonstrated an ability to withstand a lot of tests. He also shared his thesis on the digital asset and why it’s a store of value against paper money.  Founded in 1955, VanEck was one the first U.S. asset managers to offer investors access to international markets, setting the tone for identifying asset classes and trends – including gold investing in 1968, emerging markets in 1993, and exchange-traded funds in 2006, and digital assets in 2017. VanEck manages approximately $70 billion in assets, including mutual funds, ETFs and institutional accounts. 0:00 Intro 0:33 Macro view 1:55 2022 can be summarized in one sentence 2:43 Fixed income can and should be a bigger part of a portfolio 3:02 Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio 4:50 Where in the fixed income universe? 7:22 Views on the economy 9:16 Outlook for equities 10:00 Inflation may be more persistent than people think 12:30 Is the 2% target unrealistic 13:12 Labor market 14:12 Outlook for commodities 16:35 Don’t over chase equities 19:00 Why fixed income can be an under-appreciated part of a portfolio 20:50 Using history to identify all potential outcomes 23:23 Powell will make sure he slays inflation 26:11 FTX one of the last shoes to drop in the deleveraging of crypto 27:47 Knock-on effects from FTX 29:00 The good news for investors in crypto 30:00 Journey into digital assets, Bitcoin 31:24 Bitcoin Futures ETFs 32:10 Spot EFT 35:00 Thesis on Bitcoin 38:26 Biggest risks 41:00 3 big drivers on financial markets 43:00 Psychology of investing

Scott Galloway, Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business, and best-selling author of multiple books, including Adrift: America In 100 Charts, joins Julia La Roche on episode 32. In this episode, Julia and Scott delve into the “hunger games, winner takes most” economy that’s emerged, where it’s never been easier to become a billionaire in America and never been harder to become a millionaire. According to Scott, a millennial born in 1984, who’d be 37, only has a 50% chance of doing better economically than their parents. Scott highlights the erosion of the middle class in the U.S. and what it means for the country's social fabric. Scott pointed out how broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort. He also detailed how the rise of dating apps — an ecosystem that would have greater inequality than Venezuela — has hindered relationship formation. Elsewhere, Scott broke down how universities and colleges have become luxury brands. As Scott put it, this rejectionist luxury positioning at universities is the “most un-American thing.” He argued that we could easily expand freshman seats. Scott also shared his thoughts on Twitter and its new owner Elon Musk, which he describes as a “train wreck you can’t look away from.” He also shared his take on TikTok and his issue with its ownership. 0:00 Intro 0:43 Never been easier to be a billionaire in America 1:48 More business school students will be dependent on their parents 2:40 Millennials have it worse off than their parents 4:50 Consequences of an eroding middle class 6:30 Age inequality 8:30 What Social Security should look like now 11:00 The greediest generation in the world 12:10 Creating anger and volatility among younger people 15:00 Broke and lonely males are the most dangerous cohort 17:30 Need a leveling up for young males 20:45 Solution is viable young men 22:08 Need to double number of freshman seats at universities 24:00 Leveling up young men is not zero-sum or misogynistic 27:23 How dating apps make it difficult to find a partner 30:00 Dating app economy would have greater inequality than Venezuela 32:28 Need to invest in third spaces 34:13 Universities have become luxury brands 38:22 Rejectionist luxury universities are un-American 40:18 Student debt forgiveness was terrible 46:02 UNC is a gift, literally like a pharmaceutical 48:39 Thoughts on Twitter/ Elon Musk 54:30 Thoughts on the power of TikTok

Danielle DiMartino Booth, the CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 31.  DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence is conceived and delivered with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers, but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans to analyze the trends and provide critical analysis on what is driving the markets – both in the United States and globally. Since inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018.  She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. (Also, here are the links to Danielle's 2007 papers at the Dallas Fed, The Rise And Fall Of Subprime Mortgages: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2007/el0711.pdf, and From Complacency To Crisis: Financial Risk Taking in  the early 21st Century https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2007/el0712.pdf) 0:00 Intro 0:42 At a critical juncture 1:38 We’re in a global recession right now 2:50 A much different construct in this layoff cycle 4:17 A white-collar recession 5:45 How a white-collar wave of layoffs impacts the economy 6:37 Quiet quitting is un-American 8:32 Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? 10:40 Few are accustomed to the type of Fed we have now 12:05 Maybe Jay Powell wants to kill the Fed put 15:20 Jay Powell wants to establish a better legacy 16:47 Not enough at the Fed has changed 18:12 If the Fed succeeds, Main Street will be the real winner 22:22 There will be air come out of this housing bubble 25:08 Investors exacerbating this housing cycle 27:13 Fed policies fed speculation in housing 28:18 The risk lives in the credit market 30:50 Watching continuous jobless claims 32:00 Are we set up for an even worse recession? 33:00 Biggest risk 35:19 Millennials, Gen Z will have to deal with a different reality 37:17 Time for Millennials to rise

Vitaliy Katsenelson, the CEO at IMA, a value investing firm in Denver, joins Julia on episode 30 to discuss his newest book, Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life, which is his first non-investing book. Vitaliy shares his love of writing, family, work, music, and stoic philosophy in the book. In this episode, Vitaliy details his backstory of growing up in Soviet Russia and coming to America. He also shares his impressions of capitalism and how investing was “love at first sight.” For Vitality, writing is the most important thing that’s transformed his life and career, and he spends 700 hours each year writing. Vitaliy views Stoicism as an operating system for life. He wishes he had encountered Stoicism when his mother died of brain cancer when he was 11, and that tragedy helped bring him closer to his father. Elsewhere, Vitaliy shares his views of the markets and why high-interest rates are making value investing great again. He dives into his thesis of a Dot-com Bubble 2.0, how tech stocks became overvalued thanks to abundant capital, and how eventually, that sector will be a “value investor’s paradise.” He also shared his economic outlook and house the housing market is worse than you think. 0:00 Intro 0:42 Born in Russia, made in America 2:36 First impressions of capitalism 4:31 First taste of Pepsi 8:01 Finance was ‘love at first sight’ 12:28 Writing journey 16:30 700 hours per year writing 19:08 Navigating a painful period through writing 22:50 Losing mother to brain cancer at age 11 25:00 Stoicism as an operating system for life 27:00 Stoicism and investing 30:12 High interest rates make value investing great again 32:33 How low rates fueled tech stocks 35:36 Thoughts on tech layoffs 36:46 Quiet quitting ends with loud firing 39:00 Dot-com bubble 2.0 44:37 Tech stocks will become a value investor’s paradise 46:00 We’re likely going to have a recession 46:55 Housing market is worse than you think 51:00 Where it gets worse for homeowners 52:05 A value investor’s framework during a recession 53:37 America became more tribal 55:40 Student loan debt forgiveness is a slippery slope 1:02:00 A moral hazard 1:03:00 Final thoughts

Billionaire investor and tech entrepreneur Steve Case, the co-founder of AOL and now the CEO and Revolution, joins Julia La Roche on episode 29 to discuss his newest book, "The Rise Of The Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream." In 2014, Case launched Revolution's "Rise of the Rest," an initiative to accelerate the growth of startups based outside of Silicon Valley. Rise of the Rest is based on a simple idea: talent is equally distributed, but opportunity is not. Historically, 75% of venture capital money has flown to three states — California, New York, and Massachusetts, resulting in a "brain drain," where people who grew up in Middle America move to Silicon Valley for opportunities. Since 2014, Case and the Revolution team have traveled more than 11,000 miles to 43 cities on the Rise of the Rest bus to visit entrepreneurial ecosystems and highlight great companies and entrepreneurs. On each tour, they hit five cities in five days, meeting with startups and elected officials. Rise of the Rest hosts a pitch competition and invests $100,000 in a local startup. As a result of our tours, Revolution launched two $150 million Rise of the Rest Seed Funds to invest in seed stage companies between the coasts. Rise of The Rest has attracted big-name backers, including John Doerr, Jim Breyer, Henry Kravis, David Rubenstein, Eric Schmidt, Tory Burch, Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, Howard Schultz, and many more. 0:00 Intro 0:35 Traveling the U.S. by bus 2:00 American cities on the rise 3:25 Top-tier returns outside of Silicon Valley 8:35 75% of venture capital goes to 3 states 11:46 Peak Silicon Valley? 15:10 The Third Wave of the Internet 17:30 Something is brewing out there 19:30 Dealing with the skepticism 21:28 200 investments in 100 cities 23:05 New venture firms launched outside CA, NY, MA 24:20 Evaluating entrepreneurs 26:30 Startups fuel job growth 29:15 Seeing America by road 30:22 Why is America divided? 33:50 Slowing the brain drain 36:15 The boomerang effect 39:09 America’s success is not guaranteed 41:45 Need for immigration reform 43:11 Early days of the internet 47:47 Director of New Pizza Development 49:24 Advice for the next-gen entrepreneur

Dr. Nomi Prins, economist and author of the new book “Permanent Distortion: How The Financial Markets Abandoned The Real Economy Forever,” joins Julia on episode 28. Dr. Prins is an international economist, investigative journalist, geopolitical financial expert, and outspoken advocate for economic reform. She was a member of Senator Bernie Sanders’ panel of top economic experts advising on Fed reform. Dr. Prins’ new book exposes the ever-growing divide between the financial markets and the real economy and the unprecedented crises it has caused. This conversation explores how we got to a permanent distortion and why the Fed and its policies are at the epicenter.  0:00 Intro 0:43 Goldman Sachs MD to investigative journalist 3:05 What is the Permanent Distortion 5:00 The Fed is at the epicenter 8:55 The Fed is pretending to be an inflation hero 13:02 One big convenient lie 14:55 Relationship between the Fed and Wall Street 18:00 Will the Fed ever be reformed? 21:06 Unelected officials control the money 22:33 Credibility of the Fed 24:08 From a great distortion to a permanent distortion 27:44 Inflation likely to remain higher than Fed’s 2% target 32:02 Fed could’ve mitigated the home/rent part of inflation 35:11 What would Dr. Prins ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell? 36:40 Dr. Prins' speeches before central bankers 40:10 Why central banks globally act in lockstep 41:49 Meme stock mania a symptom of Fed policies 44:20 The evolution of Bitcoin 47:33 Solutions to address the permanent distortion 50:40 5 economic sectors emerging 52:20 What happens if nothing changes? 54:00 Final thoughts

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and board member of startup bank Battle Financial, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on natural resources.  Rule, who has more than 49 years of investing experience, looks at the macro picture from the lens of a credit analyst. He’s long-term optimistic but short-term pessimistic, thanks mainly to the excesses of artificially low interest rates, artificially induced liquidity, and systematic overregulation. Rule expects there will be 3 or 4 “very hard years not too far in the future,” and it will be “severe but survivable.” He added that he’s investing aggressively.  During the conversation, Rule shared his view on energy, the diesel shortage in the U.S., and his thesis on investing in uranium. He detailed some of the fictional narratives about energy, including why the narrative that we’re going to replace fossil fuels is a joke. Elsewhere, Rule outlined why one should invest in gold, which he characterizes as an insurance policy. He also shared why he's speculating on silver.  0:00 Intro  0:31 ‘Failing’ retirement  2:46 Macro view as a credit analyst  5:00 A reckoning from rising rates 6:25 War on savers 8:58 Young people are becoming aware at a great rate  10:15 Long-term demographic trends 13:03 Idiocy of energy policies  15:27 People are waking up to the need for fossil fuels today 17:30 Diesel fuel shortages in the U.S.  21:31 It’s a joke that we’re going to replace fossil fuels 24:44 Investment thesis for uranium  28:15 Triumph of reality over narrative 32:55 Ways to invest in uranium 34:30 Biggest risks of investing in uranium 34:45 Outlook on gold 40:00 Gold as a life insurance policy  41:45 Why buy a 10-Year Treasury?  43:30 Will the Fed stop inflation? 44:45 Will long-term optimism end? 48:30 Social Security  49:45 How to invest in gold 52:30 Thoughts on silver 56:00 Where to find more from Rick Rule

Brent Donnelly (@donnelly_brent), president of Spectra Markets, joins Julia La Roche on episode 26. Brent has been trading since 1995 and writing about global macro since 2004. He is the author of “Alpha Trader” (2021) and “The Art of Currency Trading” (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected global macro daily called am/FX. He just published a trader handbook and almanac this week. Throughout his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in the U.S. and a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund. Brent also has a creative side, publishing colorful commentary. He also wrote a cartoon that ran on television in Canada. During this episode, Donnelly shares his macro views and why he’s near-term bullish and riding this optimism wave. Donnelley’s investment style takes only a one-week to a one-month horizon. Donnelly, who traded during the dot-com bubble burst, shares why we might see something similar to 2001 next year. 0:00 Intro 0:36 Early beginnings trading FX 2:24 Trading and writing cartoons 7:14 Writing critical to trading success 12:31 Daily trading plan 16:20 There’s no Fed pivot happening 18:05 Long stocks, short dollar in near-term 19:46 Mortgage resets 21:14 Pain from rate hikes in the U.S. comes later 23:23 Sell rallies in stocks 24:16 Fed losing credibility 28:03 Playing the optimism trade 30:28 Good time for macro 32:00 Tactical trading approach 34:34 Pavlovian buy-the-dip mentality 37:07 Why we might see something similar to 2001 42:00 What breaks things? 43:43 Magazine cover indicator

Alex Gurevich is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of two books — The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020. Gurevich led HonTe’s macro strategy in 2020 to rank second by net return according to BarclayHedge—and in the top ten of emerging managers in all strategies by Eurekahedge. Gurevich has over twenty years of trading experience and was hailed by the Wall Street Journal in 2003 as the star trader of JPMorgan, where he served as Managing Director responsible for global macro trading. In this episode, Gurevich shares his divergent views, which are that rates are most likely going to zero, and deflation — not inflation — is the concern. 0:00 Intro 0:31 St. Petersburg to America 1:38 Early interest in Wall Street 2:53 Poker and investing 4:39 Psychology of trading 8:37 Turning HonTe’s 2020 trading success into a book 12:33 Extreme side of the deflation camp 13:33 Two words: Policy lag 17:04 Outlook for rates 20:22 Implications of deflation 24:15 Why is there a shortage of dollars? 27:10 Scenario for deeper a longer recession, global depression 30:59 Oil and energy pivotal to the deflation story 33:14 Why Japan might be in the best position 34:34 What the inflation camp is missing 37:58 Focus on the Fed 42:11 Thesis of deflationary depression and implications for a portfolio 44:50 Why bonds will have more upside 46:00 What would alter or reinforce the thesis on deflation? 48:12 Final thoughts

Fixed income market legend Harley Bassman (@convexitymaven), known as “The Convexity Maven,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 24 for a wide-ranging conversation on the bond market, volatility, housing, demographics, and more.  Bassman is currently a managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, a fast-growing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) provider. At the recording date, the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX), which aims to hedge interest rate movements arising from rising long-term interest rates and to benefit from market stress when fixed income volatility increases, is up 100% year-to-date. Bassman is also the creator of the MOVE Index, a standard measure of interest rate volatility similar to the VIX. He clarifies how investors should think about the index and why levels near 50 and 150 are the “wrong number.”  In the conversation, Bassman discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and why there needs to be a repricing of all assets for reality.  0:00 Intro 0:31 Harley’s background 1:42 Convexity explained 3:22 Macro views 5:17 Inflation isn’t coming down quickly 8:30 The Fed is doing the job 11:17 Demographics is the iceberg 14:17 Boomers have robbed the Millennials 15:14 Public policy mistake with housing 18:14 People trying to buy a house right now are ‘unfortunate’ 20:40 Not going to be a housing crisis 22:19 The MOVE Index 30:27 Yield Curve single best predictor of a recession 34:58 MOVE and the VIX 37:19 Stocks will likely go down in an orderly fashion 40:25 The world’s not broken 43:47 Repricing for reality 46:34 Recession outlook 49:55 Learn to write, expand your mind 53:12 The Maven Mantra

Ritholtz Wealth Management COO Nick Maggiulli (@dollarsanddata), author of “Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth” and the popular finance blog Of Dollars And Data, joins Julia La Roche on episode 23.  In 2017, Nick made it his New Year’s Resolution to publish a weekly blog post. His “Of Dollars And Data” blog has grown in popularity, and his writing habit turned into a book deal.  In the conversation, Nick discusses his strategies for saving money and investing. He shared the biggest life perpetuated by personal finance experts, his “2X Rule” that lets you enjoy your money. Nick also explained his argument for why you shouldn’t pick individual stocks and why you shouldn’t max out your 401k. The self-described permabull also explained why investing is still the way to go, even during turbulent times.  0:00 Intro  0:31 Insights into the book publishing business  4:20 New Year’s Resolution to write 7:59 Saving is for the poor, investing is for the rich  12:13 How much should you save?  14:08 Biggest lie in personal finance  15:43 “The 2x Rule”  17:39 Retirement is about more than money  19:50 Thoughts on the FIRE movement  21:21 Think like an owner 23:13 Don’t buy individual stocks  26:35 Talented or lucky?  28:54 Thoughts on dollar cost averaging  31:46 How to buy during turbulent times 37:00 How do you know when it’s a buying opportunity  40:56 Why you shouldn’t max out your 401k  43:18 State of financial education  44:33 Why you’ll never feel rich  47:44 The most important asset  48:49 Begin life as a growth stock, end as a value stock

Brent Johnson, the CEO of Puerto Rico-based wealth management firm Santiago Capital and the creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, joins Julia on episode 22.  Brent’s view is that we’re heading for a currency crisis. The Dollar Milkshake Theory is a framework Brent developed to explain how a sovereign debt and currency crisis might play out. He explained how the world was flooded with liquidity thanks to extraordinary monetary policies following the Global Financial Crisis. The Dollar Milkshake is a simplified way to demonstrate how capital — all of the liquidity that makes up the “milkshake” — would flee the rest of the world and get sucked up by the U.S. Dollar (the straw) and U.S.-based markets creating a myriad of problems globally.   During this conversation, Brent explains his Dollar Milkshake Theory, where he thinks we are within that framework, and why the U.S. Dollar’s explosion to the upside could cause problems to pop up worldwide. Elsewhere, Brent discussed how to navigate a currency crisis, the case for investing in gold, why everyone should have cash, and his concerns about bitcoin.  0:00 Intro/background 1:25 Macro views, focus on currencies  2:41 Explanation of the Dollar Milkshake Theory   6:39 Where are we in the Dollar Milkshake framework?  10:26 What could be the endgame?  13:16 Why should individuals care about the implications of currencies? 19:39 How currency problems will create contagion  26:37 Weaponization of the Dollar  33:17 Views on The Fed  37:55 How to navigate a currency crisis  41:29 Investing in gold  43:52 Advice for CEOs and companies navigating currency headwinds  45:28 Everybody should have cash  47:42 A complicated relationship with Bitcoin  50:00 What a new monetary system could look like 53:41 The Dollar Milkshake Theory doesn’t have a happy ending…  56:23 Think for yourself but think about what’s going to happen

Best-selling author Jim Rickards joins Julia La Roche on episode 21 of the podcast to discuss his outlook on why a severe recession is coming and how to prepare for it. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, and The New Case for Gold. He is the author upcoming book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. In this episode, Rickards outlines his thesis for why a severe recession is coming. According to Rickards, "we're going to wake up this winter with a severe recession, high unemployment, and a much lower stock market." He notes that the stock market is "starting to get the message," and those who believe in the Fed pivot narrative are missing two huge fallacies. Rickards also warns on the dire debt situation in the U.S., with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 130%, well past the critical threshold. As Rickards notes, the U.S. is now "well past the point where you can borrow your way to growth, or you can borrow your way out of a debt crisis, and we're heading for a debt crisis." Elsewhere, Rickards shares his views on why inflation will turn to deflation, a "central banker's worse nightmare" and "pure poison" for debtors. He also details his outlook on the U.S. dollar and weighs in on currency fluctuations globally. 0:00 Intro 0:44 Views on the global economy 1:35 U.S. ‘almost certainly’ in a recession 3:08 What’s coming is a ‘very severe’ recession 3:43 Supply chains breaking down 4:50 Bloated inventories, slashing prices 5:15 Fed tightening rates into weakness 5:45 The stock market is starting to get the message 6:23 The Fed pivot crowd face huge fallacies in that narrative 10:40 Bottom might not be until late 2023 11:40 We’re going to wake up with winter with a severe recession, high unemployment, and a much lower stock market 12:30 Explanation of financial crises and recessions 19:30 Recession may be worse than 2008 21:01 Odds of a financial crisis are ‘uncomfortably high’ 22:26 Fed raising rates to curb inflation will be effective at a ‘very high cost’ 24:02 Deflation/disinflation coming down the tracks 24:46 2 types of inflation explained 29:16 The impact of debt is like an extremely powerful glacier 35:40 Thoughts on MMT 44:30 Debt does matter 45:05 Deflation is ‘pure poison’ when it comes to the debt-to-GDP ratio 51:09 Thoughts on U.S. Dollar, currency fluctuations 58:46 Diversifying your portfolio

Josh Brown, co-founder and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a New York City-based investment advisory firm managing over $2.7 billion, joins Julia La Roche on episode 20. Josh, a frequent commentator on CNBC, is the author of three books, including Backstage Wall Street and the popular financial blog, The Reformed Broker. In this episode, Josh shares his journey from a retail stockbroker launching a financial blog during the 2008 crisis to building and scaling an RIA. For Josh, writing changed the course of his career. Writing is what connected Josh with his firm's co-founder, and creating content through blogs and podcasts has been the sole driver of the firm’s clients. These days, Josh has slowed the frequency of his blog posts, but when he writes it's an accumulation of ideas he's been pondering, and the latest blog he dropped on Sunday, Oct. 2, though, called “You Weren’t Supposed To See That,” went viral. In 3,400 words, Josh examines “the greatest economic experiment” of the last three years, from the shutdowns, remote work enabled by technology, the stimulus, appreciation in stocks and housing, the emergence of digital art and SPACs, an increase in new businesses and LLCs, used car prices going up, household debt shrinking, household net worth rising, squandering of stimulus checks, and so on, all resulting in the worst inflation in 40 years. As Josh highlights on the podcast, all of this revealed “a dark truth about the American dream.” As Josh puts it in the blog, “Widespread prosperity, it turns out, is incompatible with the American Dream. The only way our economy works is when there are winners and losers. If everyone’s a winner, the whole thing fails. That’s what we learned at the conclusion of our experiment. You weren’t supposed to see that. Now the genie is out of the bottle. For one brief shining moment, everyone had enough money to pay their bills and the financial freedom to choose their own way of life. “And it broke the f*****g economy in half.” Timestamps:  0:00 Intro 2:16 Retail stockbroker to blogger 3:59 Lessons from broker days 7:08 Blogging during the financial crisis 9:53 Writing is essential for investors 13:18 Teaming up with Barry Ritholtz 15:37 Content is the sole driver of clients 19:31 “You weren’t supposed to see that” 23:50 A dark truth about the American dream 25:11 Legal immigration is one solution 28:44 Views on the “American Dream” 32:30 Implications for younger Americans 35:42 Where does the blame lie? 37:26 Mass prosperity wasn’t the goal 38:15 Reactions to the viral blog post 40:12 This recession is necessary to prevent the next recession. - Fed policy, literally 41:35 Why @Downtown doesn’t Tweet often 48:06 Where do we go from here?

Joining Julia La Roche on episode 19 of the podcast is R. Martin (“Marty”) Chavez, a partner and vice chair of Sixth Street Capital and a former Goldman Sachs executive. Before joining Sixth Street, a global investment firm with more than $60 billion in assets under management, Chavez served in various senior roles at Goldman Sachs, including Chief Information Officer, overseeing the firm’s 9,000 engineers; Chief Financial Officer; and global co-head of the firm’s Securities Division. Chavez was also a partner and member of the Goldman Sachs management committee. In this episode, Chavez shares his background, growing up in a large family in Albuquerque, New Mexico. His parents strongly emphasized education, and as Chavez’s mother put it, he had to “work twice as hard to get half as far.” As a student, Chavez excelled in math, and by the 7th grade, he was taking college math courses at the University of New Mexico. That’s also where he discovered his love for computers. A Stanford Ph.D., Chavez shares his unlikely path from Silicon Valley to Wall Street. He was the first openly gay employee at Goldman Sachs in 1993 and was among the most senior Latinos on Wall Street. Chavez is widely recognized for helping transform the Wall Street trading business into a software business, revolutionizing how capital moves and works. He is also known for bringing the front and back offices together. The episode delves into Chavez’s views on the future of finance, his thesis on how software ate finance, his thoughts on regulating fintech, and the powerful trend of dematerialization. 0:00 Intro 0:23 Growing up in Albuquerque, New Mexico 4:15 Education is the answer 6:40 Harvard sophomore at age 16 8:00 Early work on the protein folding problem 10:00 Creating a ‘digital twin' with software  12:10 Focus was on AI, not finance 16:00 A ‘free trip’ to NYC from Goldman 17:17 First openly gay employee at Goldman 19:13 ‘Just being me’ 22:50 Building trust and connectedness with colleagues 23:48 Leaving Goldman in 1997, choosing sobriety 25:35 Launching a startup before the dot-com bubble 28:30 The call from Gary Cohn 30:20 A vow of silence and cleaning toilets in a monastery 31:50 Evolution of tech at Goldman 34:04 Connecting with clients in Spanish 36:00 How software ate finance 40:50 Application Programming Interface (API) explained 44:10 Same number of people, different skills 46:27 future of fintech is banks 50:14 Digital assets, and the powerful trend of dematerialization

Investor and entrepreneur Dave Friedberg (@friedberg), the CEO of The Production Board and co-host/“Bestie” on The All-In Podcast, joined Julia La Roche on today’s episode for a wide-ranging conversation. Friedberg was born in South Africa and moved to Los Angeles with his family at age 6. Friedberg studied astrophysics and UC Berkley. He joined Google months before its initial public offering working in corporate development. At the end of 2006, Friedberg left Google to start The Climate Corporation, a software company focused on agriculture. Monsanto acquired the Climate Corporation in 2013 for around $1 billion.  In the episode, Friedberg shares his struggles raising venture capital for The Climate Corporation and later rapidly iterating and evolving the business model and product. According to Friedberg, three predictors for a startup’s success — grit, bias to action, and narrative — are all traits he looks for in making investments today. Friedberg started The Production Board, a holding company that creates and invests in agriculture, food, human health, life sciences, and biomanufacturing businesses. A core tenet of The Production Board focuses on decentralizing industrial processes to reinvent how we make and consume things as a species, from clothing, materials, plastics, food, and more. Friedberg sees a tremendous opportunity to deploy technologies such as biomanufacturing, automation, 3-D printing, or additive manufacturing to modularize and decentralize production, which benefits the planet and serves human needs. One example is Cana, a molecular beverage printer that allows consumers to turn water into soda, juice, coffee, and tea at home using a flavor cartridge without all the CO2 emissions that span the existing supply chains. Elsewhere, Friedberg shared his views on how we can achieve free, abundant energy. He predicts terrestrial nucleosynthesis could drive the greatest source of value and wealth creation in the 22nd century, and he extrapolates what this might mean for civilization.  0:00 Intro 0:30 Origin story 2:18 Friedberg’s interest in science 3:56 Lessons in entrepreneurship 7:15 Predictors of startup success 8:15 Building ‘grit’ in business 10:05 Importance of narrative 12:35 Strong storytellers more likely to succeed 14:14 Everything is learnable 18:42 Macro view of reimagining earth 25:45 Why anti-consumerism is dumb 29:30 Cana, the molecular beverage printer 32:15 Decentralization in media expanding to physical goods 33:45 Creators’ products will win against traditional products 39:58 Starbucks the first personalized consumer products company 42:30 Abundant free energy 53:45 From laborers to knowledge workers to narrators 1:00:34 Thoughts on UBI 1:04:55 Why is there fear around new technology? 1:06:03 Implications of solving the protein folding problem

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers joins Julia La Roche on this episode for a wide-ranging conversation from the economy, markets, and investing to seeking adventure and lessons for younger generations.  In this episode, Julia and Jim revisit his Guinness World Record adventures, including his motorcycle ride across six continents in the early 90s and his journey across 116 countries in a custom-made yellow Mercedes convertible at the turn of the century.  In the conversation, Jim shares his views on the global macro economy and markets. The 79-year-old investor predicts that the next bear market will be “the worst” in his lifetime because of the explosion in debt.  Elsewhere, Jim weighs in on debt, inflation, the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin, commodities, agriculture, and China. He also imparts lessons for the younger generations.  0:00 Seeking adventure  2:22 Lessons learned traveling the world  4:30 How traveling shaped Rogers’ investing  6:30 Alabama to Wall Street  9:06 Working with Soros  10:00 October 19, 1987  12:15 Questioning everything  16:20 Macro outlook  18:15 “Worst bear market” in life  20:30 Longer-term consequences of debt  23:36 Outlook for the U.S. Dollar  25:19 Prescriptions for the U.S.  26:07 Thoughts on Bitcoin  27:50 Protecting yourself from inflation  30:00 View on agriculture  31:48 Secular trends  34:06 Investing opportunities  35:50 Bond Bubble  37:17 Short-selling  40:25 China  43:20 Lessons in life, investing  49:00 Views on education  52:40 Thoughts on the future of the world 

Billionaire tech titan Marc Benioff, the founder and CEO of Salesforce, joins Julia La Roche on a special episode at Dreamforce, the software and cloud giant's annual technology conference in San Francisco.  This year's Dreamforce attracted 40,000 attendees, making it the most significant event in San Francisco since the COVID pandemic. Benioff shared that the event brought in an estimated $40 million to the local economy, giving a much-needed "big shot in the arm" to the city. With sparsely populated offices, the San Francisco native CEO made a case for companies choosing San Francisco to host large events and conferences instead of places like Las Vegas. The conversation also touched upon the homelessness situation in San Francisco. As San Francisco's largest private employer, Benioff supported the passage of Proposition in 2018, which levied a 0.5% tax on the city's largest companies to combat the homelessness crisis. During the conversation, he called for institutionalizing affordable housing in the U.S. and for more mental health and addiction treatment programs. Benioff started Salesforce in 1999 as a pioneer in software-as-a-service (SaaS) and customer relationship management (CRM). Since then, it's become the largest enterprise software company and customer relationship management (CRM) company globally. The company is expected to do $31 billion in annual revenue this year and aims to hit $50 billion in the fiscal year 2026. While at Dreamforce, Benioff unveiled the company's newest product, Salesforce Genie, the first real-time CRM. Since its inception, Salesforce has integrated philanthropy into its business, primarily with its 1-1-1 model, where the company donates 1% of its equity, product, and employee time to charity. Benioff discussed some of the focus areas, including the environment through reforestation and adopting public schools. He also shared some of the biggest influences in his life and business and advice for next-generation entrepreneurs.  0:00 The Great Reunion  1:38 Future of Work  2:57 Quit Quitting  4:42 Views on the Economy  5:56 Salesforce Genie  7:32 Talk to Your Customers  9:02 $50B Goal  10:03 Ecopreneur Revolution  11:40 Public Education  14:34 San Francisco  17:47 Influences  21:54 Advice for Entrepreneurs 

Activist short-seller Dan David, the founder of Wolfpack Research and host of the “I Hung Up On Warren Buffett” podcast, joins Julia La Roche on today’s episode. Dan is best known for uncovering frauds in Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges. In this episode, Julia and Dan discuss his journey from being a long-only investor to an activist short-seller exposing frauds. Dan delves into his process of uncovering fraudulent companies, from deploying a tea salesperson to inquire how many employees were at a plant to posting video cameras to monitor truck traffic. Dan also details the involvement of the U.S. banks and law firms in these frauds that impacted millions of everyday Americans’ retirement and investment accounts. Dan, who has been sued for $250 million, breaks the merits of short-selling and the importance of Freedom of Speech. He also shares what he's focused on today.  0:00 Intro/ journey into short-selling 3:55 Carson Block’s Orient Paper short report 5:22 The pervasiveness of Chinese stock frauds 7:28 How U.S. banks, law firms enabled stock fraud 9:30 Why frauds targeted U.S. investors 11:08 U.S. banks involvement 13:31 Thousands of people involved 14:20 How the fraud worked 17:16 An example of uncovering a fraud 22:19 Thoughts on “The China Hustle” film 26:00 Sino-Forest fraud 28:00 Orient Paper 30:40 Why we “won this round” 33:10 Sohn Conference in Hong Kong 35:50 U.S./China geopolitical tensions 40:30 Short-selling 46:00 Freedom of Speech  49:22 Hanging up on Buffett 56:12 Opportunities today 

Nik Bhatia is a financial researcher and Adjunct Professor of Finance and Business Economics at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business, where he teaches Applied Finance in Fixed Income Securities. He is the author of the best-seller Layered Money: From Gold and Dollars to Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies. He currently writes The Bitcoin Layer, a research publication on Substack. In this episode, he discusses the younger generation's interest in Bitcoin and digital assets. He also dives into monetary history and some of the most important takeaways. Nik takes a global macro approach to Bitcoin analysis as a former bond trader and rates analyst. He expects the U.S. dollar “will remain King Dollar for decades to come.” Moreover, he thinks Bitcoin won’t break the dollar and will coexist with the dollar system. 0:00 Intro 3:00 Teaching at USC 7:00 Students embracing bitcoin 11:00 Monetary History 17:50 Views on the U.S. Dollar 23:29 Protecting yourself from a broken dollar system 31:00 Inflation and possible path for monetary policy

Ben Hunt, the author of Epsilon Theory and co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, joins Julia La Roche to discuss narratives and how they shape everything from financial markets to politics.  Ben’s Epsilon Theory is a newsletter read by over 100,000 investors and allocators that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history and provides novel insights into market dynamics.  In this conversation, Ben details his focus in the investment world on examining unstructured data, which includes “the words that we read and the messages that we hear.” He explains that whether it’s in investing or politics, once you start to understand underlying narratives and story arcs, you begin to see them everywhere.  Ben also discussed how narratives are pervasive in the media and his approach to his content diet. He also outlined his “Fiat News” concept and how narratives get “weaponized.”  Elsewhere, Ben, who has written in praise of Bitcoin, explained how Wall Street co-opted the narratives surrounding the cryptocurrency, and it’s now “just another table at the Wall Street Casino.”  Finally, Ben discussed polarization and how American politics is approaching an “event horizon” that it might not be able to escape.  0:00 Intro/ Ben’s background  4:54 Unstructured data    10:02 Why don’t we recognize narratives/stories?  13:40 Michael Crichton’s Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect  17:30 Ben’s content diet  22:09 ‘Surviving’ in the environment  24:23 ‘Fiat News’  30:10 Weaponized narratives  35:21 The story of Bitcoin 40:16 Wall Street co-opted Bitcoin  45:39 Pervasive political conflict 52:22 How to protect yourself from political crisis  Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/frQ5SPKQMb4

Macro researcher Jim Bianco, the president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on the macroeconomic environment. Bianco’s research style is macro with a bent toward fixed income and dabbles in the traditional macro to highlight things that people are not focused on or emphasizing enough. In the conversation, Bianco highlights three bubbles that existed pre-2020 that were unrelated to the financial markets, including cheap labor, goods, and energy. According to Bianco, the pandemic pulled forward 20 to 30 years of change, and we are not returning to a pre-2020 way of life of globalization, cheap goods, and cheap energy.  Bianco notes that this change drives financial and economic volatility and persistent and chronic inflation. To be sure, Bianco doesn’t see it as an apocalyptic or pessimistic scenario but rather one of significant change and volatility.  Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/D1O4pr8mdKA Follow Jim on Twitter: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche

Anthony Scaramucci, founder/managing partner of fund-of-funds SkyBridge Capital and affectionately known as "The Mooch," joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging conversation on life, business, investing, and politics.  Scaramucci details some of his biggest career failures — including being fired by Goldman Sachs, failing the New York State bar exam, and getting fired from the White House — and the lessons learned along the way, from resilience to relationship building.  Scaramucci also discusses the markets and the opportunities he sees in this environment. Once a bitcoin skeptic, Scaramucci talks about SkyBridge's big bet on the cryptocurrency, why he thinks it's "dirt cheap" at these price levels, and his thesis for $300,000 per bitcoin.  Scaramucci famously served as the White House Director of Communications from July 21 to July 31, 2017, before getting fired. Scaramucci, a vocal critic of the former president in recent years, reveals if he could ever "make peace" with Trump. He also shares his thoughts on Mar-a-Lago. Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/vS9x2cyewYw Follow Scaramucci on Twitter: https://twitter.com/scaramucci Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche

Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and investment opportunities.   Regarding macroeconomics, Europe is facing one of the worst winters of high power prices ever due to its overreliance on Russia and policies pushed by shareholders, NGOs, and teenagers. As a result, Bass expects Europe to see a meaningful recession. What's more, he believes the solution to the mess in the short-to-intermediate term is more hydrocarbons and embracing nuclear energy in the long term. Elsewhere, Bass, a long-time critic of China, discusses why he thinks China will invade Taiwan. He also highlights how the Chinese economy is "circling the drain," and the banking system is hyper-levered, especially in real estate. He notes that investors should probably sell Chinese equities to limit the "risk to a genocidal regime that's likely to become militaristically belligerent." The U.S. is still in the best position globally, according to Bass. His macro take is to expect a sharp recession, and depending on how aggressive the Federal Reserve is with its rate hikes; they could make it worse. Bass expects the U.S. to come out of that recession, and the Fed will cut rates by the end of next year or early 2024 and expand its balance sheet again. As a result, Bass is interested in hard, productive assets like rural land that can can generate superior returns that outpace inflation. Watch the interview on YouTube: https://youtu.be/p0_euL0QnnE Follow Kyle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jkylebass Follow Julia on Twitter: https://twitter.com/julialaroche

In this episode, Julia is joined by cybersecurity expert Adam Meyers, the senior vice president of intelligence for CrowdStrike.  Meyers looks after CrowdStrike’s intelligence gathering and cyber-adversarial monitoring activities, which include around 185 adversaries.  With more than twenty years of experience in cybersecurity, Meyers has a talent for breaking down incredibly complex and nuanced concepts in cyber for everyday folks.    In this wide-ranging conversation, they discuss Chinese cyber economic espionage, the greatest transfer of wealth. The discussion also touches on North Korea’s targeting of cryptocurrency and decentralized financial systems for revenue generation meant to increase state wealth. The discussion explores data weaponization by hackers and the worrisome trend of making that data easily searchable and accessible. Meyers sheds light on cyber threats from Russia and details the growing threat of election meddling.

Alan Patricof (@alanjpatricof) is a venture capital pioneer with a career spanning more than 50 years and showing no signs of slowing down. The 87-year-old started his third venture capital business nearly two years ago called Primetime Partners, wrote his first book published this year, and this week he'll be attending Burning Man, and in the fall, he'll run the New York City Marathon for the sixth time. He joins Julia La Roche on this episode for a wide-ranging conversation on life and investing.  Patricof started in venture capital at 36 in 1970, before a venture capital industry existed. His Patricof & Co. Ventures Inc. was the predecessor to Apax Partners, one of the largest private equity firms today. In 2006, at 72, Patricof founded Greycroft Partners, a venture capital firm that led numerous investments in digital media companies. He has since left Greycroft to take on the founding partner and chairperson role at Primetime Partners. At Primetime Partners, Patricof, who said he plans to live until 114, is focused on what he calls the "ageless generation" — those over the age of 60 that are part of the fastest-growing part population. Since its inception two years ago, Primetime Partners has deployed capital across 25 investments with a focus on seed and early-stage investments in products, services, and experiences for the aging, including aging in place, financial security for retirees, care management, longevity health services, and consumer experiences. Primetime has also backed older entrepreneurs building companies, with 18% of its founders over 50. With his new book, "No Red Lights," Patricof hopes to encourage the older generation "not to pack it all in and go to the golf course and retire." He also hopes to share lessons with the younger generation to be open to new opportunities and live a life of curiosity.

Today's guest is Ryan Williams, Cadre's founder and executive chairman. Cadre is a tech-enabled commercial real estate investing platform backed by Goldman Sachs, Andreessen Horowitz, Ford Foundation, Harvard Management Company, Khosla Ventures, Thrive Capital, General Catalyst, and others. A native of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, entrepreneurship runs deep in Ryan's veins. In this episode, Ryan and Julia discuss his entrepreneurial journey and building that entrepreneurial muscle, from his time selling sports sweatbands as a teenager to first investing in real estate as a college student.  With his college roommate, Ryan began his career in real estate investing in Atlanta during the 2008 subprime credit crisis. The pair purchased foreclosed properties using pooled funds from classmates and, in many cases, helped those families buy back the homes. After working at Goldman Sachs and Blackstone Group, Ryan launched Cadre, which sits at the intersection of finance, technology, and real estate.  Ryan recognizes that real estate ownership is a significant driver of economic prosperity. Since its founding in 2014, Cadre has closed more than $5 billion in transactions, delivered a greater than 25% net average IRR, and returned more than $400 million to investors. His vision involves opening up more access to investing in commercial real estate.