The Julia La Roche Show

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report and a prominent figure in stock market and technical analysis, joins Julia La Roche on episode 156. In this episode, Tom shares his views on the economy and markets in a presentation of charts, from the message crude oil prices send stocks to the Presidential Cycle Pattern and, of course, the famed McClellan Oscillator. Tom explains why a recession is still coming. He also explains why the second half of 2024 could be an unpleasant time for stocks, but we haven't seen the inflection point yet. Tom is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan, who are recognized for creating the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index in 1969. Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. Links: https://www.mcoscillator.com/ https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc 0:00 Intro and welcome Tom McClellan 0:55 Macro view 1:41 Only 2 fundamentals matter for stocks 2:45 Recession is coming 4:25 Inverted yield curve and corporate profits 5:54 Crude oil prices message to stocks 8:00 Stock market and expectation of a top in June 10:57 McClellan Oscillator 13:20 Presidential Cycle Patterns 15:20 Taxes could be a problem 20:56 Fed Funds Target Rate — staying too tight for too long 25:30 Recession call 27:27 McClellan Oscillator — neither bulls nor bears are in charge 29:50 Markets driven by high-flying tech names, people feeling twitchy 35:05 Gold 37:00 Bitcoin 38:20 The McClellan Oscillator origin story 44:00 Parting thoughts

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, discusses the state of the US economy and the consumer. Last year, she did not expect a recession because of the strong consumer. Today, she describes the economy as “bifurcated” because higher-earning households are driving consumer spending. Whitney also explores the housing market and predicts a supply glut that will lead to a decline in home prices, making it more affordable for younger generations. She delves into the demographic changes and challenges posed by an aging population, particularly in terms of long-term care and housing. Whitney also addresses the fiscal position of states and the nation, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget and the potential risks of relying on foreign buyers for debt. Links: https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/ Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 01:05 Macro view, bifurcated consumer 04:19 Sentiment 05:58 Housing market and homeownership 09:21 Timeline for home prices 10:38 Demographic changes and solutions 12:31 Demographic trends and aging Americans 20:31 National debt and foreign buyers 22:46 Possibility of a balanced budget 23:44 Fear and impact of research calls 32:11 Meredith Whitney Advisory Group

Dr. Art Laffer, one of the most influential economists of the past half-century, joins Julia La Roche for episode 154. Dr. Laffer is the founder and chairman of Laffer Associates, an economic research and consulting firm. Known as the "Father of Supply Economics," he is famous for developing the Laffer Curve, a representation of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue that was foundational to supply-side economics. Dr. Laffer served as a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board for both of Reagan's terms. In our wide-ranging discussion, Dr. Laffer shares his insights on the current state of the U.S. and global economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and his outlook for the future. Links: https://www.amazon.com/Taxes-Have-Consequences-Income-History/dp/1637585640 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Overview 01:08 The Five Pillars of Prosperity 11:13 Factors Leading to the Current Situation 26:08 Addressing Incentives in Politics 30:41 The Flawed Logic of Stimulus Spending 35:17 The Fallacy of Redistribution 37:38 The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies 38:04 The Lack of Economic Understanding Among Professional Economists 39:02 The Laffer Curve and Tax Rates 40:19 The Role of Private Money in the Economy 44:34 The Possibility of a Low, Broad-Based Flat Tax Rate 50:25 The Failure of Government-Controlled Money 54:30 Assessment of the Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy 57:23 The Importance of Economic Principles over Political Labels 01:01:50 Future Topics: Medical Transparency, Debt, Enterprise Zones, and Climate Change

Amy Nixon, a housing and economic analyst, makes her first podcast appearance in six months after making a pivot on her deflationary recession call. In his episode, Amy discusses the current macroeconomic environment and the challenges it presents. She highlights the combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy as a significant factor in the economy. Amy shares her experience of adapting her forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions. She also discusses the state of the housing market, the impact of institutional buyers, and the future of real estate agents. Amy addresses the concerns of millennials in the housing market and offers insights into owning a home as an investment. Links: https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW Takeaways The combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy is a significant factor in the current macroeconomic environment. Adapting forecasts and expectations based on changing market conditions is crucial for accurate analysis. The housing market is facing challenges due to tight credit, low transaction volume, and high liquidity. Owning a home as an investment can be beneficial for wealth building, especially for individuals without much investment knowledge. The future of the economy is influenced by factors such as inflation, political decisions, and market dynamics. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and macro view of the economy 01:18 Tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy 03:15 The importance of admitting mistakes and analyzing new data 04:12 Adapting forecasts and expectations for 2023 and 2024 04:23 The impact of changing analysis on housing market 09:46 The state of the housing sector 12:38 The impact of institutional buyers on the housing market 21:15 The housing market and Millennials 25:21 Owning a home as an investment 26:03 The Airbnb bust thesis 32:06 Inflation and the future of the economy

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, makes his debut on episode 152 of The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Hirschmann argues that we're currently in the most dangerous time in financial history and that three bubbles—stocks, real estate, and global bonds—could all burst. Hirschmann also makes the case that we'll likely see more persistent inflation in the future, given the massive deficits and debt burden. He argues that the price of gold could soar to $7,000. For investments, he favors gold miners and exposure to international equities. Links: https://www.hcapital.llc/ 00:00 Introduction and Macro View of the Economy 00:43 Dangerous Time in US Financial History 03:08 Consequences of Crisis Suppression Policy 04:35 US Equity and Real Estate Bubbles 06:27 Government Debt Problem 08:20 Global Government Debt Crisis 09:47 Government Debt Crisis and Private Sector Recession 11:03 Gold's Performance and Market Environment 13:13 Factors Affecting Gold's Valuation 19:36 Fed Policy and Fiscal Dominance 23:39 Impact of Fiscal Dominance on Gold 27:26 Investing in Gold Mining Companies 31:53 Impact of Bubbles Bursting 35:36 Potential Impacts of Recession 40:10 Likelihood of Recession 44:21 Closing Remarks

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, now Editor at Stansberry Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy, markets, and common mistakes investors make. Whitney discusses the strength of the macro picture and the importance of not betting against America. In this conversation, Whitney shares stock picks, reflects on missed opportunities, and discusses the importance of letting winners run. He also talks about closing his hedge fund, lessons learned, and the wisdom he gained from the late Charlie Munger. Tilson emphasizes the need for patience and discipline in investing and highlights the five calamities that can derail a successful life. Links: Stansberry Research: https://stansberryresearch.com/our-team/whitney-tilson The Art of Playing Defense: https://www.amazon.com/Art-Playing-Defense-Falling-Behind-ebook/dp/B091QFHJ6B Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:55 Big picture view of the economy and markets 02:43 Caution against letting politics influence investment decisions 03:38 The mistake of predicting gloom and doom 05:24 Betting against America doesn’t make sense 06:59 There are warning flags, but stocks aren’t in bubble territory 8:10 Bitcoin smells frothy, but ‘I would never short it’ 09:22 Stock Picks: Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, and other opportunities 10:02 Bitcoin is an instrument of pure speculation 15:56 Stock pick ideas - Berkshire Hathaway, Meta, etc. 21:26 Introduction to Warren Buffett and value investing 26:48 Stock exchanges as interesting investment opportunities 29:08 Lessons from missed opportunities 36:07 The importance of letting winners run 38:50 Reflecting on closing the hedge fund, mental mistakes investors make 43:48 Running a Hedge Fund with Patience and Discipline 46:13 Charlie Munger's legacy 50:06 The Art of Playing Defense

Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of the Macro Compass, discusses the macro view of the current market and investor expectations. He challenges the narrative of a structurally stronger US economy and presents a contrarian perspective. Peccatiello highlights the ambiguous data and warning signs in the economy, particularly in relation to China's deleveraging process and the spillover ripple effects on other economies. Peccatiello emphasizes the importance of portfolio construction and diversification to protect purchasing power. He concludes by sharing his background and the launch of a macro fund. Takeaways Investors are adjusting their expectations based on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates fewer times than initially anticipated. The prevailing narrative of a structurally stronger US economy may overlook the tightening of financial conditions and the potential spillover effects from China's deleveraging process. The data is ambiguous, with some parts of the economy showing signs of slowing down while others remain resilient. Portfolio construction should focus on diversification and protecting purchasing power, considering assets that are uncorrelated to one's job and the overall economy. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/macroalf The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.org/ Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:22 The macro view 03:08 Prevailing narrative of a stronger US economy, ‘party like it’s 1995’ 05:30 Alf’s contrarian narrative 08:54 Ambiguous data and warning Ssgns 11:42 Spillover effects from China 15:41 Possible recession and risks 27:14 Conclusion

Jeff Snider, host of the Eurodollar University podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the current macroeconomic picture, characterized by confusion and ambiguity. In this episode, Jeff explains the Fed's focus on consumer prices and the risks associated with this approach. Jeff also highlights the lurking risks in the commercial real estate market and the Chinese real estate bubble. He provides insights on asset allocation and portfolio construction in this uncertain environment. Jeff is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University (https://www.eurodollar.university/) aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:05 Welcome Jeff and the macro view 03:08 Confusion and ambiguity in the economy 07:24 The Fed's focus on consumer prices 08:43 Market pricing and signaling 11:57 What the Fed should be focused on 14:30 Ambiguity in economic data 23:51 Fiscal support and the economy 26:39 Lurking risks: Commercial real estate and China 31:10 Asset allocation and portfolio construction 33:47 Eurodollar University and parting thoughts

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, discusses his macro view of the economy and markets. He believes that the market is ahead of the Fed and that inflation will not come down as quickly as people think due to demographic factors. Bassman also discusses the yield curve and its implications for a recession. He recommends investing in mortgage-backed securities due to their attractive risk-return profile. Finally, Bassman, the "Convexity Maven," explains convexity and its importance in bond investing. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/convexitymaven Convexity Maven: https://www.convexitymaven.com/ Simplify Asset Management: https://www.simplify.us/ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and macro view 03:03 Inflation and Fed Policy 05:01 Inflation expectations 07:26 Yield Curve and recession 10:06 Trade Opportunities in bonds 14:47 Mortgage-Backed Securities and convexity 19:55 Rate expectations and mortgage bond trade 20:15 Understanding convexity 25:55 Wrap up

Andreas Steno, founder of Steno Research, discusses the resurgence of inflation and its impact on the global economy, and his contrarian take that the next move from the Federal Reserve could be a rate hike. In this episode, Steno highlights the labor market as a major driver of inflation, with wage pressures increasing due to labor scarcity. Steno suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates instead of cutting them, but acknowledges the political challenges of such a move. He also discusses the macro situation in Europe, with Germany and France struggling while southern European economies thrive. Steno is the former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea, Northern Europe's largest bank. This episode was recorded on February 19. Links: https://stenoresearch.com/ https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:49 The macro view: inflation resurgence 02:38 Indicators of inflation resurgence 04:40 Labor market and wage pressures 07:00 Federal Reserve's interest rate policy 09:00 Possibility of a rate hike 10:26 Implications for markets 14:12 Structural changes in the labor market 15:48 Surprising rebound in asset markets 18:50 The European macro situation 21:40 Implications of production shifts in Europe 24:00 Watching Europe from the outside 26:00 Portfolio construction 27:50 The Fed's rate hikes paused too soon 29:15 Parting thoughts

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 146. In this episode, Darius discusses the current market regime and the transition to a reflation regime. He explains the drivers of the reflation regime and the implications for portfolio construction. Dale also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and interest rate policy in the current environment. He highlights the importance of liquidity and its impact on asset markets. Dale concludes by discussing the risks and benefits of the reflation regime and the potential for a market correction. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale. Links: 42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/dariusdale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro 0:00 Introduction and macro view 1:20 Reflation regime and drivers 6:29 Understanding the Global Macro Risk Matrix 11:50 FOMC and interest rate policy 15:49 Liquidity cycle and implications 21:46 Benefits and drawbacks of the reflation regime 22:05 Risks and existing economic conditions 28:45 Risk of market correction 31:43 Parting thoughts, more on 42 Macro

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 145 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics. In this episode, Woo shares his macro framework, emphasizing the intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics and the need to understand their impact on market outcomes. Woo also explores the potential risks and challenges facing the US economy, including political instability and polarization. Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy, & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 and the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested. With the increased political polarization in the U.S., Woo sees a real pressure point once we enter the third quarter. “Once we get into July, we're four months away from the election, I think it's going to feel like shit. I think America, Americans are going to be petrified about what is going to be in store for the country in the final four months leading up to the election,” Woo said, adding that when safeguards to the system get “seriously stress tested” it will be “a huge economic headwind” to households and companies. Elsewhere, he shares contrarian investment views and highlights the importance of facts and numbers in public discourse. Finally, Woo discusses his work with David Woo Unbound and the mission to bring diverse perspectives together for meaningful discussions. Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound 0:00 Intro 1:18 Macro view and why it’s harder to make money 3:05 Intersection of economics, politics, and geopolitics 4:52 Biden has to get the economy right, needs a soft landing 6:50 Game Theory with oil prices 9:00 Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy 13:00 Government spending contributed 1/3 of GDP growth last year 17:30 Economic risk in the U.S. 18:40 Political risk 22:00 Political division ahead of election day 26:26 Contrarian views and ideas today 34:44 Perception of the U.S. from the outside 42:20 Parting thoughts

Economist David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, shares his macroeconomic view of the economy and explains why he’s not throwing in the towel on his recession call. Rosenberg highlights the importance of understanding the business cycle and the impact of interest rates. While many economists have thrown in the towel on their recession calls, Rosenberg remains in the recession camp, pointing out that the economy is weaker than the narrative suggests. He also emphasizes looking at the full picture, noting the divergences in various economic indicators. Elsewhere, Rosenberg provides insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy and its implications for bond and equity markets. Rosenberg is bullish on bonds and explains how you could make a 20% total return in the 30-year Treasury. SPECIAL OFFER: Viewers and listeners of The Julia La Roche Show can access a free 30-day trial of Rosenberg Research with no upfront commitment. The free trial grants access to Rosenberg Research’s premium service, where you’ll receive complimentary macro and market insights every day. Request a trial at this link: https://hub.rosenbergresearch.com/free-trial Timestamps 00:00 Introduction, welcome, macro picture 0:54 Economists throwing in the recession towel 2:55 State of the consumer 4:15 Fiscal stimulus 6:40 Bullish on bonds, sees equity-like returns 7:30 Recession call 10:30 Bifurcation and divergencies in the markets and economy 12:00 GDP and GDI 14:00 Growth in credit card usage, epic drawdown in personal savings 15:00 Employment 22:30 Fiscal policy likely to be a drag 24:30 Household balance sheets - auto loans and credit card delinquencies 26:30 GDP likely close to flat this year 28:30 Outlook for Federal Reserve rate policy, need to go to 2.5% 35:45 Yield curve, why you could make more than 20% total return in 30-year Treasury bond 38:20 Implications equity markets if Fed cuts rates 44:30 Stock market has become a bidding war 48:27 Equity risk premium 53:33 Bob Farrell's influence 57:44 Parting thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 143. In this episode, Danielle provides an update on the economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the job market and the increase in layoffs. She discusses the impact of the white collar recession and the decline in net worth for high-income individuals. DiMartino Booth also shares her insights on the market performance and the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates. She suggests a question for Fed Chair Powell regarding the regulatory changes and their impact on the financial system. Additionally, DiMartino Booth emphasizes the importance of backlogs as an indicator and discusses the current state of the economy in an election year. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Takeaways The job market is facing challenges, with layoffs increasing and the demand for labor collapsing. The current recession can be characterized as a white collar recession, with high-income individuals experiencing a decline in net worth. The market performance is driven by the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but the timing and extent of these cuts are uncertain. Backlogs serve as an important indicator of the economy, reflecting pent-up demand and potential future trends. The upcoming election is crucial, and voters should be aware of the government's spending and the importance of their vote. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and update on the economy 03:08 Job market and layoffs 08:25 White collar recession 10:03 Market performance 15:06 Outlook for interest rates 17:19 Question for Fed Chair Powell 18:41 The importance of backlogs as an indicator 20:05 Recession 21:34 Journalism background and Warren Buffett 24:00 Parting thoughts

Dr. Burton Malkiel, author of the influential book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," which revolutionized how people approach investing, joined Julia La Roche on episode 142. Link: https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/1324051132 0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Burton Malkiel 1:30 Writing ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ 4:30 Reaction to ‘A Random Walk’ 5:30 90% of active managers do worse than the index 8:14 Investing in the first index fund, and its returns 12:48 This is the way to invest 19:30 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) 22:29 Bitcoin spot ETF, bubbles 27:18 Debunking that ETFs distort financial markets, fuel a passive investing bubble 33:40 Efficient Market Hypothesis and what the media gets wrong 38:20 View of the markets, macroeconomics 43:50 Retirement crisis ahead? 48:48 Background 50:38 Parting thoughts

Dr. Marc Faber, editor of “The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report," provides a macro view of the global economy and financial markets. He discusses the diverging trends in different countries and the impact on standards of living. Dr. Faber expresses concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the high levels of debt in the US. He recommends investing in gold as a safe asset and highlights the undervalued opportunities in Latin America. Dr. Faber emphasizes the importance of being a contrarian investor and encourages individuals to focus on personal freedom and not rely on government interventions. In uncertain times, Faber advises diversification as a strategy, allocating assets to stocks, precious metals, real estate, and cash and bonds. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a consistent asset allocation regardless of market conditions. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and welcome Dr. Marc Faber 01:13 Macro view 04:00 Cost of living in advanced economies is higher 06:00 EM valuations attractive, US expensive 08:46 Long-term cycles of inflation and interest rates 10:00 Inflation is not under control 11:28 The rich have never had it this good in their lives 12:27 A silent depression for ordinary people 14:45 Long-term cycles of inflation, interest rates in context of growing debt 20:00 Printing money 23:20 Re-acceleration of inflation 26:00 The Economics of Inflation 28:01 ‘If you trust the central banks, you’re stupid’ 35:08 Gold and precious metals 48:17 Recession outlook 50:39 Investment opportunities, asset allocation 54:50 Parting thoughts

Jeff Sherman, Deputy CIO of DoubleLine Capital, joins The Julia La Roche Show for episode 140 to break down the first FOMC meeting of 2024 and his outlook for the economy and the markets, inflation, and more. Takeaways The FOMC meeting indicated that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon, but the timing and extent of the cuts are uncertain. Positive real yields in the bond market offer attractive investment opportunities, especially compared to the volatility of the equity market. The current economic outlook is relatively positive, but there are risks to consider, such as potential inflation and the impact of interest rate policy. Investors should be cautious and evaluate the risks associated with their investments, considering factors such as inflation, market volatility, and the potential for economic downturns. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome 01:00 FOMC meeting reaction 05:27 QT 11:20 Positive real yield investment opportunities 14:50 Stocks vs. bonds 20:00 Economic outlook 30:00 Value threshold is higher 32:30 Inflation 39:00 Risks Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DLineCap and https://twitter.com/ShermanShowPod DoubleLine Capital: https://doubleline.com/ Podcast: doubleline.com/podcasts/

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging discussion on economics. Roubini, known as "Dr. Doom" due to his tendency to make pessimistic predictions, shared his near-term macro outlook for 2024, pointing out that a hard or no landing scenario looks unlikely, and a soft or soft-ish landing is the most likely probability. Elsewhere, Roubini gave an update on the medium-to-longer-term outlook, which includes ten interconnected megathreats that collectively are a slow-moving trainwreck. Roubini is the Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, and Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com. He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com. Links: Megathreats book: https://www.amazon.com/MegaThreats-Dangerous-Trends-Imperil-Survive/dp/031628405X Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/nouriel Website: https://nourielroubini.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome 1:00 Macro view — soft landing, no landing, or hard landing scenario 3:54 No landing and hard landing scenario don’t look as likely today 6:00 The downside scenario 9:03 Why we avoided a recession in 2023 12:49 Update on Megathreats, worrisome risks in the longer-term, stagflation 20:00 Impact of AI, positive deflation 23:00 Deaths of despair 28:38 Debt situation, the mother of all debt crises 31:00 Inflation in the medium-term, 5 or 6% 34:00 Fiscal dominance 36:00 Addressing the debt situation in the U.S. 41:00 Inflation rate likely 6% rather than 2%, impact on 10-year treasury, mortgage rates 46:00 Take on the markets. Are they pricing in a soft landing? 49:30 Bitcoin, Bitcoin Spot ETF, and crypto 55:25 World Economic Forum in Davos, the conventional wisdom of WEF is always wrong

Peter Mallouk, CEO and President of Creative Planning, a $245 billion RIA, shares his macroeconomic view, emphasizing long-term optimism due to low unemployment, emerging markets, and technological innovation. He advises investors to focus on the long run and not be swayed by short-term risks. Mallouk discusses the potential for rate cuts, the US debt situation, and his skepticism towards cryptocurrencies and gold as investments. He recommends a diversified portfolio focusing on equity-oriented investments, including stocks and private equity. Mallouk also highlights the importance of avoiding common investor mistakes and maintaining a long-term perspective. Takeaways Maintain a long-term perspective and focus on the macroeconomic factors that drive long-term growth, such as low unemployment, emerging markets, and technological innovation. Do not try to time the market or make investment decisions based on short-term events. Instead, focus on asset allocation and diversification to protect your portfolio. Be cautious about investing in cryptocurrencies, as the majority of them are likely to go to zero. Treat them as speculative bets rather than long-term investments. Gold is not recommended as an investment for wealth growth, as it has historically underperformed other asset classes. However, it can serve as a store of value in uncertain times. Avoid common investor mistakes, such as market timing and overactive security selection. Instead, focus on long-term asset allocation and controlling costs and taxes. Links: Money, Simplified book: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Simplified-Peter-Mallouk/dp/B0CLZ1W9RD Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/PeterMallouk Creative Planning: https://creativeplanning.com/ Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:46 Macroeconomic view 03:14 Navigating short-term risks 04:42 Market outlook for 2024 06:15 Investing in stocks, small caps 07:38 International markets 08:28 Federal Reserve and interest rates 10:30 US debt situation is the No. 1 risk 14:00 Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies 15:23 Role of gold in a portfolio, Mallouk not a fan of gold 17:06 Preferred investments 18:54 Common investor mistakes 20:21 Investor psychology 23:07 Peter Mallouk's journey 24:46 Where to find Peter Mallouk 25:17 Long run optimism

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — joins The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy, the Federal Reserve, and the yield curve. In this episode, Professor Harvey highlights how the Federal Reserve made things worse in 2023 with its unnecessary rate hikes. According to Professor Harvey, we’re fortunate if the economy delivers slow growth this year in spite of the Fed’s damaging actions. He argues that the Fed will need to undo the damage they did with immediate rate cuts no smaller than 50 basis points at the next meeting. Elsewhere, Professor Harvey shares the origin story of the inverted yield curve indicator and it’s 8 for 8 track record in predicting economic recessions. Now that we’re in the 9th inversion, he shares that it’s way too early to call if we’re in a false signal. He also makes a case that the inverted yield curve is causing slower economic growth, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing because you avoid a deep recession. Links: DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey 0:00 Intro 1:00 Big picture macro view 1:30 Understanding the current state of the economy and the role of the consumer 5:20 Fed needs to 5:55 The story has to do with the consumer 8:30 Federal Reserve undoing the damage 10:00 Inflation, the false narrative, and policy errors 18:00 Fed rate cuts need to happen immediately 21:27 What would Professor Harvey do differently at the Fed? 23:30 Inverted yield curve indicator origin story 30:00 Difference between long-term rate and short-term rate is highly predictive of economic growth 36:40 8 out of 8 without a false signal 39:00 If Fed undoes the damage it created, there’s a good shot of a soft landing 39:30 What do folks get wrong when it comes to the inverted yield curve? 45:00 The inverted yield curve is causing slower economic growth 47:00 Understanding how the inverted yield curve works 49:30 What keeps Professor Harvey up at night?

Famed economist Professor Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance emeritus at Wharton, discusses the macroeconomic overview, his outlook for the Fed’s interest rate policy, the probability of a recession, the stock market outlook, and owning stocks for the long run. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 01:12 Macro overview 04:50 Probability of a soft landing is over 50% 06:09 3 reasons to lower interest rates 10:24 Commercial Real Estate and banks 13:07 Expectations for the Fed, how fast will the lower? 17:45 Misconceptions about rate cuts 20:27 Most important message from the latest FOMC 22:22 Goldilocks economy, 60-40 soft landing odds 25:20 Stock market 27:27 Productivity 29:10 Market outlook for 2024 32:00 Value stocks 34:37 Bond market outlook 34:30 The Noisy Market Hypothesis 37:48 10,000 students in 49 years as a professor 39:25 Never taken a finance class 42:42 Milton Friedman 44:10 Parting thoughts Links: https://ir.wisdomtree.com/company-information/advisor https://fnce.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/siegel/ https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/1264269803/

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the big picture of the economy and markets, including an impending maxi reset in home prices and the potential for more bank failures. He also highlights the “silent crisis” in commercial real estate and the potential increase in bank failures. Whalen shares his insights on the earnings of big banks and media coverage. He provides an outlook on the Federal Reserve and discusses the debt situation in the US. Lastly, he addresses the possibility of releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship and shares his work and parting thoughts. Takeaways The commercial side of the economy is experiencing pain, particularly in commercial real estate and corporate defaults. The housing market is expected to undergo a reset in the future, leading to a decrease in home prices and potential challenges for developers. There is a silent crisis in commercial real estate, with legacy properties becoming toxic and banks being urged to sell assets. The Federal Reserve may need to drop rates, start buying bonds, and increase reserves to address the challenges in the economy and banking sector. The US debt situation is a significant concern, and long-term rates may rise, impacting various sectors of the economy. The release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship is unlikely due to their credit ratings and challenges in functioning as private entities. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Comments most recent Fed proposal in Basel III Endgame: https://www.regulations.gov/comment/OCC-2023-0008-0052 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:08 Big picture view of the economy and markets 3:29 Impact of Basel III endgame 4:50 A maxi reset in housing 06:20 Silent Crisis in commercial real estate 09:28 Potential increase in bank failures 13:00 Big bank earnings and media coverage 15:30 Grim economic picture for commercial 21:15 Outlook on the Federal Reserve 24:55 Fed could cause a bank crisis 26:15 Debt situation in the US 31:30 Release of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from Conservatorship? 35:15 Parting Thoughts

Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the macro picture and the sovereign debt bubble that’s bursting in the U.S. In this episode, Gromen makes a case that he thinks this is the year where the consensus realizes the Federal Reserve as a “shadow third mandate,” which is the Treasury market functioning. He explains the concept of fiscal dominance and its implications for the economy, including higher inflation and a weaker dollar. Gromen predicts that there will not be a recession in 2024 due to the Fed's focus on maintaining the functioning of the treasury market. He recommends investing in gold, Bitcoin, and industrials as these assets are likely to perform well in the current environment. Gromen also discusses potential scenarios that could avoid the negative outcomes of the sovereign debt bubble. Links: https://fftt-llc.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen Dr. Charles Calomiris’ paper on fiscal dominance: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2023/10/02/fiscal-dominance-and-the-return-of-zero-interest-bank-reserve-requirements.pdf Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and macro view 1:40 The Fed has a “shadow third mandate” 3:54 Fiscal dominance and its symptoms 9:24 Realization of fiscal dominance by the consensus 14:10 No recession in 2024 21:31 It’s a new Great Depression 26:00 Investment Opportunities: gold, Bitcoin, and industrials 35:19 Avoiding the scenario 40:05 Conclusion and parting thoughts

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche to share his macroeconomic outlook, his prediction for 5.5% on the 10-year Treasury yield impact on the stock market, inflation, the US debt situation, and the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. Links: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com twitter.com/BiancoResearch Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and macro outlook 03:07 Call for 5.5% 10-year Treasury and impact on the stock market 6:12 The pathway to 5.5% 8:08 The Fed's response to inflation 11:26 Soft Landing vs. No Landing 15:40 Implications of 5.5% on the 10-year 21:40 Why can’t we get to 2%? 28:38 Biggest worry with 5.5% on the 10-year 31:16 US debt crosses $34T 36:35 Bitcoin Spot ETF 44:40 Closing remarks 46:50 Consensus forecasts have been wrong

Bestselling author Morgan Housel, partner at The Collaborative Fund and first-ever guest on The Julia La Roche Show returns for episode 132 to discuss his newest New York Times Bestseller Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. Morgan’s first book The Psychology of Money has sold over four million copies and been translated into 50 languages worldwide. Morgan is a two-time winner of the Best in Business Award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, and winner of the New York Times Sidney Award. In 2022, MarketWatch named him one of the 50 most influential people in markets. He serves on the board of directors at Markel. Takeaways Managing expectations is crucial for happiness and success. Social media can lead to inflated expectations and feelings of inadequacy. Envy and the pursuit of status and success can hinder happiness. Unforeseen consequences and tail risks play a significant role in shaping our lives. Personal experiences can shape our perception of risk and influence our decision-making. Economic forecasts are in high demand because they reduce uncertainty, even if their track record is poor. Calm periods in the economy or markets can lead to instability and eventual crises. Simplicity and endurance are key to successful long-term investing. Charlie Munger's legacy lies in his wisdom and willingness to share it with others. Writing is a process of self-discovery and learning. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and Catching Up 01:08 Surprising Success of 'The Psychology of Money' 02:24 The Value of Low Expectations 04:08 Managing Expectations and Balancing Optimism 07:28 The Dangers of High Expectations and Social Media 09:37 The Gap Between Expectations and Reality 12:59 The Inflation of Expectations 15:11 The Impact of Social Media on Happiness 18:30 Envy and the Pursuit of Status and Success 23:39 Risk and the Unforeseen Consequences 26:17 The World Hanging by a Thread 31:41 Personal Story: Skiing Accident and Risk Aversion 40:32 The Demand for Economic Forecasts 43:01 Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy 46:00 Investment Strategy: Simplicity and Endurance 48:23 Charlie Munger's Legacy 51:08 Writing for Self-Discovery

In this conversation, Julia interviews Sallie Krawcheck, the CEO and founder of Ellevest, about the economy, the role of women in finance, and the retirement crisis. Sallie shares her assessment of the economy and markets, emphasizing the importance of long-term investing and the historical growth of the stock market. She also discusses the significant impact women had on the economy in the past year and the growth of Ellevest as a platform for women's wealth-building. Sallie reflects on her initial skepticism about starting a women-focused investing firm and the importance of overcoming imposter syndrome with a growth mindset. The conversation concludes with a shared love for their alma mater, UNC, and a reminder to support and promote women in finance. Takeaways Long-term investing in the stock market has historically delivered strong returns, making it a scalable way to build wealth. Women played a significant role in the economy in the past year, defying stereotypes and embracing their spending power. The retirement crisis disproportionately affects women, who have less wealth and live longer than men. Women tend to be better investors than men, as they are less likely to panic and trade frequently. Men have a crucial role to play in advancing gender equality and supporting women's financial empowerment. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Gratitude 00:46 Assessment of the Economy and Markets 03:12 The Role of Women in the Economy 04:48 Update on Ellevest 07:33 Sallie's Initial Skepticism and Change of Perspective 10:26 The Retirement Crisis and its Impact on Women 12:48Women's Investment Behavior and Performance 16:02 Regional Banking Crisis and Risks 20:01 Incentive Structures for Bank Executives 20:48 The Role of Men in Advancing Gender Equality 23:57 Overcoming Imposter Syndrome with a Growth Mindset 25:33 Shared Love for UNC and Closing Remarks

Dr. Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions Emeritus at Columbia Business School, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his recent paper, ⁠Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements⁠. In this episode, Dr. Calomiris examines the state of the economy in the near-term and longer-term, as well as the fiscal challenges facing the U.S. According to Dr. Calomiris, there's a significant probability of a fiscal dominance problem arriving in the next decade. Fiscal dominance is the need for the government to fund its deficits on the margin with non-interest-bearing debts, also known as "inflation taxation." He points out the need for political leadership and accountability in addressing the unsustainable promises of entitlement spending. Dr. Calomiris explains what could trigger panic in the bond market and the potential solutions, including taxing the banking system. He also discusses the implications of such policies on the banking system and the broader economy. Overall, he emphasizes the importance of addressing the long-term fiscal challenges to avoid a crisis in the future. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and background 01:01 Short-run and long-run perspective of the economy 03:23 The dysfunctional state of the economy, the blame is ours 06:37 Generational government accounting and political responsibility 10:06 We are not a grown-up society right now 11:20 Debt situation in the U.S. 13:53 The point of no return? 17:50 Less than a decade to make the political decision 19:50 Deficits, recessionary environment, and the consequences 23:00 Signs to look out for in the bond market 24:40 Fiscal Dominance and its definition 27:30 Will the government tax the banking system into almost oblivion? 28:50 Taxing the banking system and the inflation tax 34:00 If nothing changes, how implied annual inflation could be 35-40% 37:00 Fed could raise reserve requirements and pay zero interest to expand the inflation tax base, lower implied inflation rate 40:00 Impact on the banking system 46:17 The power of the Federal Reserve 51:00 Bitcoin 54:19 Parting Thoughts and Advice Links: Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements Fragile By Design The Political Origins of Banking Crisis and Scarce Credit

Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat and FS Insight, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to share his market outlook. Lee was among the bullish entering 2023, with a prescient call that the S&P 500 would rise 20% to 4,750 as inflation cooled off. In this episode, Lee shared his 2024 market outlook, noting it’s a year that investors shouldn’t be afraid. He expects the S&P 500 will end 2024 at 5,200, but with a caveat that most of the gains will be in the second half of the year. He pointed out that his base case is the S&P could be flat or down 5% during the first half. Looking ahead to 2024, Lee predicts positive changes in monetary policy and an earnings recovery cycle, with small caps and financials as top picks. He anticipates that small-cap stocks could outperform and rally as much as 50%. He also shares his bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Takeaways The successful call for 2023 was based on the belief that inflation would be transitory and volatility would collapse. Investors got it wrong by focusing on a singular analogy and underestimating the importance of volatility. For 2024, Lee predicts positive changes in monetary policy and an earnings recovery cycle, with small caps and financials as top picks. Bitcoin is expected to have a strong year in 2024 due to dovish central banks and the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. Links: 30-day free trial to FS Insight: https://bit.ly/485XjUl https://fsinsight.com/ https://fundstrat.com/ Timestamps 0:00 Intro and welcome Tom Lee 1:13 Retrospective on 2023 market call, what people got wrong 5:13 Mass psychology playing a bigger role than ever 6:58 Institutional and retail investors reading from the same playbook 8:42 2024 outlook, a year investors shouldn’t really be afraid 14:12 Base case is S&P down/flat in first half, most gains in the second half 18:26 Small caps 21:10 S&P 5200 22:00 Sector positioning 24:20 ‘Permabull’ reference is a cheap shot 30:00 Bitcoin 32:00 Closing remarks

Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, who is the founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, joined The Julia La Roche Show to share his insights on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and the market. Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. In this episode, Zulauf predicted that the market will continue to rise in early 2024 due to the economy appearing stronger than expected. However, he anticipates a drop in equities due to a recession. He described the current market as a "rollercoaster," with ups and downs that could be particularly frustrating for passive investors. He suggested that these investors might see low or even negative total returns in the next decade. According to Zulauf, those who can play mini cycles could find the environment beneficial. Zulauf also commented on the concentration of fund managers in the Magnificent 7, a level of concentration he has never seen in his 40-year career. Turning to inflation, Zulauf argued that what we're currently seeing is only a "temporary victory" and that we have "not killed the inflation beast." He shared his thesis for the latter part of the 2020s, predicting a possible 10% inflation rate. He noted that while occasional crises have been managed and kept under control, he worries that the next big crisis in the late 2020s "will be a shocker." As he put it, "all hell will break loose," and the latter half of the decade will be characterized by social, economic, financial, and currency crises. 0:00 Intro and Welcome Felix Zulauf 1:12 Macro view, geopolitical impact, changing world order 2:40 Equity markets likely to go up first, then drop 3:50 Inflation could rise above 10% 5:20 Nimble and flexible 7:29 Playing the markets in the environment 9:40 Fund managers piling into Magnificent 7 stocks, never seen this kind of concentration 14:24 FOMC reaction, Fed outlook, rate cut likely 17:40 Late 2020s, higher inflation, debt trillion 19:38 Inflation cycle similar to late 60s/70s 21:15 Next inflation cycle will create a problem for the bond market 22:15 Yield curve control 23:30 Hell will break loose, next big crisis will be a shocker 24:30 Addressing the fiscal problems 25:37 Gold not just a monetary asset, but a geopolitical asset 30:40 Parting thoughts, Japanese Yen

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro. The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market. The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money. Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored. Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI. Grant also shares the worst experience in his career. Links: https://www.grant-williams.com/ https://twitter.com/ttmygh Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Grant Williams 1:30 Macro view 3:00 Two opposing ideas at once 5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong 8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen 9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook 10:29 Bank of Japan moves 13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies 17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S. 18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan 21:00 1987 crash 23:50 People want to help 26:15 World views we form generationally 29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing 32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations 34:46 The Fourth Turning 39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk 42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point. 43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense 44:11 Gold 51:02 CPI 57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab, discusses the macro picture, behavior of asset classes, active management, Federal Reserve outlook, interpreting economic data, the yield curve and recession, the bond market vs. equity market, and lessons from the legendary late Marty Zweig. Takeaways * The current economic cycle is characterized by rolling recessions, with different sectors experiencing periods of growth and contraction. * The relationship between bond yields and stock prices has historically been negative during inflationary periods and positive during periods of economic growth. * Active management may become more important in the new era, as market conditions change and there is greater dispersion in how securities behave. * The Federal Reserve is likely to be in pause mode with regards to rate hikes, but a significant loosening of monetary policy is not expected. *Interpreting economic data can be challenging due to the presence of crosscurrents and conflicting indicators. * The yield curve has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions, but the timing and duration of recessions can vary.* The bond market and equity market may have different perspectives on the current economic environment, with the bond market being more cautious. * Lessons from Marty Zweig include the importance of understanding how monetary policy influences asset prices and the value of sentiment analysis. Links: 2024 Outlook: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-outlook-one-thing-leads-to-another Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders On Investing Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-investing/id1711806955?ls=1&mt=2 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Macro Picture 03:55 A Different Environment 05:29 Behavior of Asset Classes, Opportunities 08:52 Active Management in the New Era 10:25 Federal Reserve Outlook 14:07 Interpreting Economic Data 19:03 Yield Curve and Recession 22:27 Bond Market vs. Equity Market 25:21 Lessons from Marty Zweig

Angel investor and entrepreneur Jason Calacanis, “The World’s Greatest Moderator” and co-host/Bestie of All-In Podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 125 for a wide-ranging discussion. Calacanis, affectionately known as “J-Cal,” is one of the best angel investors in the world, having turned $100,000 into $100,000,000, with early investments in Uber, Calm, Robinhood, Wealthfront, and more. He co-hosts the popular All-In Podcast alongside Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, and David Friedberg. The conversation covers various topics, including the despicable display on Capitol Hill, the meaning of being an American, the impact of abundance on society. They also get into the breakout success of the All-In Podcast, interviewing presidential candidates, and how the show is leaving millions on the table by not having advertising. In the conversation, Julia learns how Jason came to own the first Tesla Model S and 16th Roadster. They also got into some of the media scrutiny of Musk. In this conversation, Julia and Jason discuss the rise of independent creators and the shift away from traditional media networks. They explore the advantages of being an independent content creator and the potential for greater financial success. Elsewhere, Jason shares his journey to success, highlighting the importance of hard work, seizing opportunities, and understanding every aspect of one's field. They also discuss finding purpose and joy in life, the power of partnerships, and the future of the All-In Summit. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Jason The All-In Podcast: https://www.allinpodcast.co/ This Week In Startups: https://thisweekinstartups.com/ Newsletter: https://calacanis.substack.com/ Launch: https://www.launch.co/ Angel University: https://www.angel.university/online More links: https://linktr.ee/calacanis/ 0:00 Welcome Jason Calacanis 2:14 Antisemitism on college campuses, Harvard, MIT, and UPenn on Capitol Hill 6:20 Identity politics madness is coming to an end 850 Why has America drifted? 10:50 Democracy + capitalism 13:20 Get rid of the victim mentality 15:55 Hard work pays off, keep adding skills 20:14 Success of the All-In Podcast 23:00 Presidential candidates on the All-In Podcast 26:30 All-In Summit 28:40 All-In leaving $25 million on the table 29:35 Elon Musk and how Jason got the first Tesla Model S 35:14 Media scrutiny of Musk 40:50 Podcasting and rise of independent creators 43:50 Power of going the independent route 54:40 Jason’s background and journey to success 54:00 Finding purpose and joy 56:20 Besties and the power of partnerships

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 124 to share where we are in the global liquidity cycle and why gold is ready for a breakout moment. Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Intro and welcome Michael Howell to the show 1:00 Macro picture today 2:15 2024 outlook, why liquidity is increasing 6:30 Global Liquidity Index 8:53 Gold, global liquidity, and U.S. CPI 16:00 Gold is not the inflation hedge you think 17:30 Gold holdings of BRICS & friends 21:18 Gold is a monetary inflation hedge 25:00 Breakout moment for Bitcoin like gold? 27:00 Asset allocation 30:30 Past crises were refinancing crises 34:50 Will there be a recession? 37:00 Portfolio construction, parting thoughts

Cullen Roche, CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 123. Going into 2023, Cullen’s big call was disinflation, which was a largely correct call. In this episode, Cullen shares his views that it might take a full year for the Federal Reserve to hit the 2% target. Because of that, the Fed can’t start signaling rate cuts without risking a resurgence in inflation. Therefore, Cullen believes the Fed will remain tighter well into 2024, increasing the risk of a hard landing or credit event as we get deeper into 2024. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cullenroche Discipline Funds: https://disciplinefunds.com/ Is The S&P 500 Broken? https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/11/21/is-the-sp-500-broken/ Pragmatic Capitalism: https://www.amazon.com/Pragmatic-Capitalism-Every-Investor-Finance-ebook/dp/B0B4V1KHVD 0:00 Welcome Cullen Roche to the show 1:03 Macro view 5:44 Real estate 10:13 How resilient is the economy really? 13:33 Disinflation call, 2024 outlook, road to 2% more difficult 17:29 Expect Fed to hold rates tight 18:23 Opportunities in bonds 20:28 Stock market is a 17-year instrument, duration of other asset classes 26:50 Allocating in this environment 30:00 Is the S&P 500 broken, are there hidden risks? Marlinski Media produces the Julia La Roche Show: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

Charles Payne, host of FOX Business Network’s (FBN) Making Money with Charles Payne (weekdays 2-3PM/ET), joined Julia La Roche on episode 122 to discuss his newest book, "Unbreakable Investor." Charles began his career on Wall Street as an analyst at E.F. Hutton in 1985. In 1991, he founded Wall Street Strategies, an independent stock market research firm where he serves as chief executive officer and principal analyst. He published his first book, "Be Smart, Act Fast, Get Rich" in May 2007, and "Unstoppable Prosperity: Learn the Strategy I’ve Used for Years to Beat the Market" in 2019. He joined FOX News Media as a contributor in 2007 and provides financial analysis across FBN and FOX News Channel. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/cvpayne Wall Street Strategies: https://www.wstreet.com/ Unbreakable Investor: https://www.unbreakableinvestor.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome Charles Payne 1:24 Big picture view, bifurcated economy and markets 2:51 Recession 4:15 Unbreakable Investor 6:34 Stock market 10:13 Roaring 2020s 12:28 Leadership 15:30 Outlook on the U.S. 19:30 Charles’ journey to Wall Street 25:50 Closing thoughts The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 121 to share his macro outlook, views on cryptocurrency and AI, and his Exponential Age thesis. In this episode, Pal makes a case that we’re currently in the bottom of the business cycle and could be headed for what he’s coined as “macro summer” next year. According to Pal, a macro summer is the “holy grail for macro investing,” characterized by falling rates, falling inflation and growth picking up. Pal noted that tech stocks and crypto priced in a recession last year, and they’re forward-looking, indicating a more positive outlook for the economy, while the Russell 2000 and oil are more reflective of the present day and a slow economy. Pal, a Goldman Sachs alum, previously co-managed GLG's global macro fund, one of the world's largest. Since retiring back in 2004 at age 36, he now authors a research letter, The Global Macro Investor (GMI), which is read by some of the most influential hedge funds and asset managers. He's also the founder of Real Vision, an online subscription media company specializing in long-form investor interviews. Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi GMI: https://globalmacroinvestor.com/ https://www.realvision.com/ 0:00 Welcome Raoul Pal 1:23 Macro view today 4:37 We’re at the bottom of the business cycle now 6:02 In “macro spring” headed for “macro summer” 7:50 Why rates will go lower faster than people think 8:27 Paying interest on the debt 10:15 Did we experience a recession already? 12:29 Inflation 14:15 False narratives in macro 16:12 Central Bank’s currency debasement 19:08 Destruction of the American Dream 21:51 The debt problem 26:30 The Exponential Age and the Everything Code 30:27 The darker view 32:40 Higher for longer 34:45 Portfolio construction in this environment 39:40 Robotics and UBI 43:13 Timeline on crypto and broader adoption 48:12 Psychology of the ups and downs 53:07 Acceleration of AI 54:04 Fourth Turning 55:30 Parting thoughts The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinksi Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/

Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 120 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy. In this episode, Dr. Shilling predicts an imminent recession, citing key indicators such as the inverted yield curve and actions of the Federal Reserve, which is determined to curb inflation even at the risk of triggering a recession. He expects the Fed to be slower in cutting rates in the event of a recession, emphasizing their focus on ensuring inflation is under control and considering the labor market's slower response to economic changes. Elsewhere, Shilling explores the correlation between Treasury bond yields and inflation, indicating that excess supply leads to lower inflation and, thus, lower interest rates. He believes the peak of interest rates has been reached and expects a rally in Treasuries. He also shares his investment approach, favoring long treasuries, the US dollar, and short positions in stocks and commodities like copper. He's skeptical about the potential of commercial real estate and sees it as a current bubble. 0:00 Welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to the show 0:53 Macro picture today, recession outlook 3:40 Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target 4:30 Globalization 6:30 Rates and inflation 12:18 Bond market 15:20 Hard landing 18:13 What’s ahead for the Fed? 20:00 Higher for longer? Maybe, but I’m not convinced 21:17 Winners and losers in this environment? 23:44 Oil 26:26 U.S. Dollar outlook 28:09 Agnostic on gold 29:13 Bullish on Treasuries 30:46 Housing 37:37 A contrarian? 40:27 Commercial real estate bubble 42:46 Forecasting as an art 46:00 Beekeeping 51:20 Parting thoughts

Michael Kao (@Urbankaoboy) joins Julia La Roche on episode 119 to discuss his macro outlook, why we haven’t seen a hard landing yet thanks to the “four horsemen of economic resilience,” and why he’s favoring shorter duration assets in this economic environment. Mike has been in the investment business for 30 years and has experience analyzing and investing in many markets and asset classes, spanning commodities to credit to convertible/capital structure/event arbitrage to distressed debt/equity investing. Mike began his career in the commodities unit at J. Aron/Goldman Sachs in NYC in the early 90’s and traded over 25 different commodity markets and their derivatives. Mike left Goldman to pursue an MBA in Finance at The Wharton School. After business school, Mike joined Canyon Partners, a credit-oriented hedge fund in Los Angeles, where he went on to become partner and co-founder of the Canyon Arbitrage Fund, which focused on various strategies including convertible and capital structure arbitrage as well as event-driven/risk arbitrage. After 5 years at Canyon, Mike decided to leave Canyon and begin his own investment firm, Akanthos Capital Management, LLC. At Akanthos, Mike ran an opportunistic, value-driven investment strategy that looked for “fulcrum securities” up and down the capital structure. Mike stopped actively managing external capital in 2019 and now invests primarily for his family office and enjoys blogging about the markets and economy on Substack at urbankaoboy.substack.com and Twitter @UrbanKaoboy. Mike holds a BS in Electrical Engineering/Computer Science from UC, Berkeley and an MBA in Finance from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Links: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/ https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy 0:00 Welcome Michael Kao 0:51 Macro view / The Four Horsemen of economic resilience 7:43 Recessionary outlook in the “vodka-Red bull” economy 11:00 The dollar wrecking ball 15:30 The rest of the world ‘out-doving’ the Fed 19:23 Oil outlook 26:27 Portfolio construction, favoring shorter duration 33:00 Thinking about stocks and bonds 35:00 Exit strategies 41:16 Parting thoughts

Legendary investor and “adventure capitalist” Jim Rogers returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 118 to discuss the economy, markets, and where he’s finding opportunity in a world with higher inflation. 0:00 Welcome Jim Rogers back 1:18 Macro view ahead of an election 3:00 Recession outlook 4:48 Inflation 7:03 Bond market 10:15 Inflation globally 11:00 Allocating in a higher inflation environment 12:20 Silver, gold 14:13 Stocks 15:08 Short-selling 17:40 U.S. Dollar 21:34 Moving to Singapore 25:30 Guinness World Records

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins in-person in Austin, Texas, for episode 117 to discuss the economy, markets, life, and his new book, “Stay Rich With A Balanced Portfolio.” With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 0:00 Welcome Ted Oakley to the show 1:08 Macro outlook 3:10 Economic picture 5:06 Wealthy don’t mind being safe right now 8:00 Short-term treasuries 9:16 10-year Treasury 14:13 Inflation 17:15 Investor bias 20:20 Ted Oakley’s upbringing 27:04 Writing Staying Right With A Balanced Portfolio 30:30 Folks can afford to wait now 31:50 Psychology of investing 39:00 Gold 40:27 What is a balanced portfolio these days? 41:51 Every landing is hard 44:16 The small investor 46:20 The curse of second-generation wealth

Investment researcher and macroeconomic analyst Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, joins Julia La Roche on episode 116 to discuss her new book, “"Broken Money: Why Our Financial System is Failing Us and How We Can Make it Better.” Links: https://www.lynalden.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Money-Financial-System-Failing/dp/B0CG83QBJ6 https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ 0:00 Welcome Lyn Alden to the show 1:11 Macro picture 4:18 1940s comparison 9:04 Fiscal spiral 12:49 Inflation in Egypt 20:00 Expectations of a recession, higher inflation 23:20 Stagflationary outlook 25:30 Why is money broken? 28:44 160 currency bubbles 30:33 Why is the system so antiquated? 34:45 Self publishing 36:40 Role of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency 45:00 Gold 47:41 Bitcoin 51:30 Could Bitcoin ever be a bubble? 55:18 Role of central banks with the rise of Bitcoin 57:43 Parting thoughts

Legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins Julia La Roche on episode 115 for a wide-ranging discussion on the economy and why we're facing an impending recession. Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist.He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics." Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO), a firm that manages over $5 billion for pension funds, endowments, insurance companies and others. This is the 54th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases. Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well. 0:00 Welcome Dr. Hunt 1:55 Macro picture 3:00 Corollary between severity of inflation and recession 4:50 An untenable situation for moderate/modest households 6:29 Looking under the hood of the economy 9:50 Michigan consumer sentiment index 11:55 Coordinated fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic 14:20 Law of diminishing returns 17:03 What does a hard landing look like 20:30 Another contra cyclical development in the financial cycle 23:00 A deep/short recession or long/narrow recession 26:00 Debt, demographics 29:40 US dollar 30:40 Private spending has a positive multiplier, government spending has a negative multiplier 36:06 Other Deposit Liabilities (ODL) 41:55 Contra normal developments 43:15 Discretionary monetary, fiscal policy have failed 48:30 Fed needs to move away from full discretion 50:20 Groupthink at the Fed, no diversity of opinion 54:00 Classical economist 57:00 5 phases of the business cycle

Bob Elliott ( @BobEUnlimited), cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 114 to discuss the macro picture, why the odds of a recession are increasing, and why it might make sense to allocate 10% of a portfolio to gold. This episode was recorded on Friday, October 20. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues. Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups, including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. He revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision-making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions. 0:00 Welcome Bob Elliott 0:45 Macro picture 2:30 Probability of a recession has gone up 5:20 Bond market 8:30 Bond sell-offs are self-correcting 14:20 Higher for longer, but how much longer? 18:03 Fed’s 2% target for inflation 20:20 Jamie Dimon’s 7% rates comment 22:29 Allocated to gold and diversified commodities

Jim Rickards (@JamesGRickards) returns to the podcast to discuss what the Israel-Hamas war could mean for the global economy, the impact on oil prices, and the rise of antisemitism on American college campuses. This episode was recorded on October 19. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards 0:00 Welcome back to the show, Jim Rickards 1:20 The big picture, according to Rickards 2:16 Horror of October 7 8:27 Israel’s response in Gaza 10:30 Egypt, Jordan unwilling to take in Palestinians 12:16 Ground invasion and logistics 13:45 A much more brutal, drawn-out and violent result 15:20 What this could mean for investors 21:00 A financial war 26:00 Greatest threat to the dollar 28:00 Ineffectiveness of sanctions 34:00 Antisemitism on college campuses

Darius Dale (@DariusDale42), founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, joins Julia La Roche on episode 112. In this episode, Darius presented his proprietary 42 Macro Weather Model to share his economic and market outlook. Growth in the real economy is expected to decelerate over the next 12 months, while inflation is reaccelerating. Darius’ model predicts below-normal returns for the stock and bond markets over the next three months. It also suggests above-normal returns for the U.S. dollar and below-normal returns for commodities and Bitcoin. A key takeaway is that with so many negative indicators, cash is currently the preferred asset. Darius also discussed the likelihood of a recession, citing that the most probable window for its onset is Q4 of 2023 to Q1 of 2024. Prior to founding 42 Macro, Darius was a Managing Director and Partner at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent investment research firm based in Stamford, CT. At Hedgeye, Darius was the Sector Head of the Macro team and was a core contributor to the firm’s economic outlook and associated investments. t strategy views. He joined the firm upon graduating from Yale. Links: 42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter https://twitter.com/DariusDale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media. Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Darius Dale to the show 1:15 Macro view using the 42 Macro Weather Model 6:50 Recession outlook 8:45 Indicators of a broader breakdown in the business cycle 13:00 Inflation was going to bottom at a level inconsistent with 2% mandate 14:30 Rethinking expectations for inflation target 20:30 Fed outlook 26:44 Higher for longer and the duration of how long 28:49 Why we could have a worse recession than investors are anticipating 29:48 Fed won’t be able to do large-scale asset purchase programs that we’re used to 30:35 Fourth Turning empirical analysis 33:55 Powell 35:50 Where are we within The Fourth Turning? 38:00 Parting thoughts

David Hay, co-CIO at Evergreen Gavekal and author of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack, joins Julia La Roche on episode 111. In this episode, Hay makes a case that the odds of a recession are going up, not down, with each passing day. The conversation dives into the bond market, exploring the shift to a secular bear market and the implications this holds for the broader financial ecosystem. Elsewhere, Hay shares where he’s allocated and why he’s mildly bullish on energy. He also points out we have a supply problem, and we’re likely to experience an acute and lasting oil shortage. Links: Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/ Bubble 3.0 Audiobook: https://awesound.com/a/bubble-30-historys-biggest-financial-bubble Evergreen Gavekal: https://evergreengavekal.com/about-us/ David Hay: https://evergreengavekal.com/team/david-hay/ The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome David Hay to the show 1:20 Macro view 2:50 Odds of a recession are going up with each passing day 4:17 Misleading data 6:30 Higher for longer’s impact on bankruptcies 7:40 GDI recession 10:45 Federal Fiscal Funding Fiasco 12:29 Structural bond bear market 15:27 Supply and demand in bond market 17:44 Hedge funds buying USTs with leverage / the basis trade 19:40 T-bills 21:26 A ‘transitory’ bond rally 25:30 The country is circling the drain 28:00 Bondholders are going to be the sacrificial lambs 29:20 Where do you want to be allocated 31:40 We’re going to have an oil supply problem 33:00 Parting thoughts

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the blog Marc To Market, joins Julia La Roche on episode 110. Chandler, who has three decades of experience in capital markets and foreign exchange, argues that the dollar trending higher since the end of the Great Financial Crisis is coming to an end. "It seems to me in the stock market, you need a new opinion, like every week or every two weeks, but the currency markets just trend for a long time. And I think that the dollar's rally is, if it's not over yet, it's nearly over," Chandler said. As of late, the dollar has been strong, but that's likely due to the Fed being more aggressive in raising rates and the U.S. economy looking better than the rest of the world. The Fed's tightening is likely coming to an end, and the economy weakening is likely to bring the dollar's rally to an end. Links: Marc to Market: http://www.marctomarket.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/marcmakingsense Bannockburn Global Forex: https://www.bannockburnglobal.com/ The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media. Learn more: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome Marc Chandler to the show 1:20 Macro view and forex market 3:30 Dollar likely peaked already 6:50 What's lifted the dollar is coming to an end 7:30 Headwinds for US economy 11:30 Dollar is overvalued 15:00 Currency misalignment creating opportunity for U.S. investors to diversify more to Europe/Japan 18:20 Recession 20:30 Government spending/ deficit 22:30 Wholesale/retail price for money 24:36 Why not let the business cycle play out? 29:27 Minksy moment? 30:30 Debt is a problem, but not yet 36:40 Biggest risk for Marc 40:36 Thoughts on crypto

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 109. In this episode, DiMartino Booth argues that the U.S. economy would already be in recession if it weren't for the government's spending. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 The Julia La Roche Show is produced by Marlinski Media: https://www.marlinskimedia.com/ Timestamps: 00:00 - Welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show 1:06 - Macro outlook on the economy, discussion on job market and revisions 3:56 U.S. economy is clearly in a recession if it weren’t for government spending 6:30 - Discussion on the Federal Reserve and the higher for longer regime 9:20 An about-face for equity investors 11:46 - Conundrum for RIAs 15:22 - Biggest risk is in middle portion of commercial real estate and corporate debt 17:30 - Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and a passive investing bubble? 18:27 - Discussion on Federal Reserve's zero bound interest rate policy 22:30 - Geopolitical risks following an attack in Israel 24:30 - US deficit at wartime levels, fiscal responsibility and potential long-term consequences 26:30 - Conclusion

Banker and author Chris Whalen (@rcwhalen), chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Julia La Roche on episode 108. In this episode, Whalen delves into what he terms a ‘Silent Crisis’ lurking within the commercial real estate sector and its ripple effects on regional banking and the broader economy. Whalen highlights the intricacies of the Federal Reserve’s policy shifts and how the central bank is slowly killing the world of credit and putting banks in a tough spot. Links: Chris on Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen to the show 1:14 Big picture is the Fed is slowly killing the world of credit 2:13 Bond market is signaling the Fed is going to stop soon 3:34 Commercial real estate risk 4:18 Banks are looking at another down quarter for net income 5:30 Commercial, not consumer 6:18 New York State Assembly killed multi-family housing 9:26 A typical recession was led by consumers, but this recession is being caused by the Fed 11:24 Landlords are a small business 13:00 Silent crisis 14:50 Impact on banks 16:00 Politics need to change if NYC is going to survive 17:30 A strange economic cycle 19:22 Half the banks in the country are insolvent on mark-to-market 20:24 Banks are a fixed income trade that masquerades as an equity trade 21:30 Fed will drop rates by end of the year because of banks 22:14 Should we have mark-to-market accounting? 23:50 Housing outlook, tips for homebuyers 27:00 Parting thoughts

Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, the founder of Sahm Consulting and creator of The Sahm Rule — a recession indicator — joins Julia La Roche on episode 107 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro and the Federal Reserve. In this episode, Sahm noted that the economy is potentially at an inflection point, and we’ll know soon if we’re getting a soft landing or are headed in a slow grind that could lead us over the edge and into recession. At the moment, she’s in the 50-50 baseline case when it comes to recession. To be sure, Sahm is concerned about the cooling in the labor market. She noted, "Once things get going in a bad direction, they keep going.” Throughout her career, Sahm has worked at the Federal Reserve, the White House, ad has advised Congress. She’s the creator of the Sahm Rule, a reliable indicator of a recession based on the unemployment rate. The rule was developed as a trigger for automatically sending out relief like stimulus checks in a recession, taking the politics out of it. Links: Stay-At-Home-Macro: https://stayathomemacro.substack.com X: https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/claudiasahm/ 0:00 Welcome Claudia Sahm 0:44 Potentially an inflection point 2:07 Labor market 3:40 What’s weighing on consumers? 6:30 Long and variable lags 10:03 Has the Fed done too much? 11:50 Risk of doing too much is aligned with the risk of doing too little 14:58 Fed’s inflation fight 19:02 Assessment of the consumer today 23:09 Great Recession 25:54 Sahm Rule 31:17 Are we in a recession according to the Sahm Rule? 32.22 Labor 36:00 Risk of a recession? 40:05 50/50 case of a recession 42:56 Housing 47:22 A decade Federal Reserve 53:00 Storytelling is the most important part of the forecasting 57:00 Groupthink at the Fed 1:01:12 Parting thoughts