The Downballot

It’s a joyous week in Wisconsin, where Janet Protasiewicz’s swearing-in means that the state Supreme Court now has its first liberal majority in 15 years. We’re talking about that monumental transition on this week’s episode of “The Downballot,” including a brand-new suit that voting rights advocates filed on Protasiewicz’s first full day on the job that asks the court to strike down the GOP’s legislative maps as illegal partisan gerrymanders.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss why reports that a Democratic congresswoman might not seek reelection to her swingy House seat might actually be good news; the absolutely bonkers candidate Republicans just nominated in a pivotal New Hampshire special election; how North Dakota conservatives are trying to pave the way for congressional term limits by passing age limits; why Brett Favre is at the center of Democratic attacks against Mississippi’s Republican governor; and why a new poll of Ohio’s Issue 1 differs so dramatically from some other recent data.A transcript of the show can be found here.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard have lots of reasons to vent their rage on this week's episode of "The Downballot." First up: Alabama Republicans, who defied a court order to pass a new congressional map with two Black-majority districts—which the state's Republican governor all but admitted they did deliberately. Then there are Ohio Republicans, whose attempt to curtail citizens' rights to pass ballot initiatives is on the verge of going down in flames. Finally, we've got Missouri Republicans, who just got unanimously spanked by the state Supreme Court for trying to thwart an abortion rights amendment.But it's not all fury from the Davids. There's also some shockingly good polling for Democrats in Kentucky's race for governor—conducted by, believe it or not, a GOP firm. And finally, we have some surprise good news from overseas, where Spain's center-left Socialists appear to have pulled a rabbit out of their hats in a gutsy snap election that had looked like their doom.A transcript of the show can be found here.

Latinos have played an increasingly crucial role in our elections, but Democrats' understanding of these voters has often lagged. This week's guest on "The Downballot" is Carlos Odio, the co-founder of EquisLabs, an organization devoted to rectifying this problem. Odio helps us move away from viewing Latino voters as a monolith and offers a helpful framework for getting to know different subsets of this diverse group. He discusses key findings of Equis' 2022 post-mortem, including why Florida went so wrong and how Democrats can make a course correction. He also explains how Latino voter identity can wind up getting dialed up or down depending on the broader election environment.Host David Nir and guest host Joe Sudbay, meanwhile, dive into Chris Sununu's retirement announcement and why it instantly makes New Hampshire's race for governor a top Democratic target; the Republican shenanigans in Alabama, where lawmakers seem dead-set on ignoring a court order to draw two majority-Black congressional districts; why Democrats will take a new effort to recall several Michigan state representative seriously even if the state GOP is a clown-show; and yet another special election in Wisconsin where Republicans badly underperformed the top of the ticket.Transcript.

Delaware's Sarah McBride already made history once when she became the first openly transgender person elected to a state Senate anywhere in the country in 2020. Now she can do so again in her bid for Congress—and she's joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to discuss her path-breaking campaign. McBride explains how her gender identity helped spur her to run for office in the first place; why she focused on passing paid family and medical leave once in the legislature; and the difference she thinks her presence on Capitol Hill could make in the face of the escalating right-wing assault on the trans community. Stepping aside from politics for a moment, she also offers advice to young trans people encountering an often hostile world.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, discuss why we just saw an avalanche of campaign launches following the July 4 holiday and dig into several of the most important kickoffs. There are bellwether House races in tossup districts like Michigan's 7th, where both parties just landed their preferred candidates, as well as Nebraska's 2nd, where the Democrat who lost a close race last year unexpectedly announced a rematch. There's also the Senate contest in perpetually swingy Nevada, where a former GOP outsider is now the establishment favorite, as well as the open governor's race in Washington, where a former Republican congressman has come out of retirement but faces serious headwinds.Transcript to come.

America could learn a lot from how other countries elect their leaders! Political science professor Matthew Shugart joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot to explain how a variety of electoral systems around the world operate, as well as his thoughts on which might work well here—and actually improve our democracy. Shugart gets into the weeds on proportional voting, single transferable vote, "decoy lists," and much more. If those terms are new to you, you'll definitely want to listen!This interview originally aired April 19, 2023.Click Here for the transcript.

Ballot measures surged into the spotlight last year thanks to abortion rights, but they've long been a critical tool for enacting positive change. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is Kelly Hall, the executive director of the Fairness Project, which has helped pass progressive ballot measures across the country for nearly a decade. Hall tells us how ballot campaigns differ from traditional campaigns, and why stakeholders often spend years debating when and whether to get behind a measure. She also explains why progressive issues often fare better than progressive candidates, and how the Sheriffs' Association and Chobani yogurt helped make Medicaid expansion a reality in deep-red Idaho.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, dissect this week's momentous Supreme Court decision that smacked down a radical right-wing argument that would have greenlit GOP gerrymandering and voter suppression nationwide, including why they're cautiously optimistic that a potential "ticking time bomb" in the ruling won't go off (at least, not to great effect). They also explain why Republicans shouldn't get too excited about landing a supposedly coveted recruit for Montana's Senate race. Finally, they discuss Sarah McBride's path-breaking entry into Delaware's House race, where a victory would make her the first openly trans member of Congress.Transcript.

Joining us on "The Downballot" this week is North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel, the first member of Congress to appear on the show! Nickel gives us the blow-by-blow of his unlikely victory that saw him flip an extremely competitive seat from red to blue last year, including how he adjusted when a new map gave him a very different district and why highlighting the extremism of his MAGA-flavored opponent was key to his success. A true election nerd, Nickel tells us which precincts he was tracking on election night that let him know he was going to win—and which fellow House freshman is the one you want to rock out with at a concert.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's awesome primary results in Virginia that spelled the end of the execrable Joe Morrissey's career in the state Senate. What's more, thanks to losses by several other conservative Democratic incumbents, the Democratic caucus will grow more progressive overall next year. But it's not all good news: The Davids tear apart a pair of awful GOP bills just signed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott aimed at giving Republicans control of elections in the state's largest county—which just so happens to be trending to the left.Transcript.

There have been sooo many hot takes about the 2022 midterms, which is why we're joined on this week's episode of "The Downballot" by Michael Frias and Hillary Anderson of the progressive data firm Catalist to discuss their data-intensive report on what actually happened. They explain how they marry precinct-level election results with detailed voter files to go far beyond what the polls can tell us. Among the findings: Highly competitive races were much more favorable to Democrats than less-contested ones; Republicans paid a "MAGA tax" by nominating extreme candidates; and non-college white women shifted toward Democrats by notable margins compared to 2020.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also do a deep, deep dive on the many implications of the Supreme Court's shock redistricting ruling in Alabama last week. The Davids explain why the nay-sayers are wrong to minimize the impact of the decision, which will very likely lead to new districts where Black voters can elect their preferred candidates not only in Alabama but also Louisiana, Georgia, and maybe even Texas. They also discuss what those new districts might look like, and how we know.Map links: Alabama | Georgia & LouisianaTranscript.

This week on "The Downballot," we're joined by guest host Joe Sudbay and law professor Quinn Yeargain for a deep dive into major political developments in three states. First up is Arizona, where a key GOP retirement on the Board of Supervisors in jumbo Maricopa County gives Democrats an excellent chance to win their first majority since the 1960s. Then it's on to Arkansas, where citizens are working to overturn a Republican bill that purports to ban "critical race theory" in public schools by qualifying a referendum for the ballot. Finally, we hit Michigan, where Democrats just advanced a measure to have the state add its Electoral College votes to a multistate compact that would elect the president by the national popular vote.Transcript.

Countless progressive organizations seek to engage and mobilize voters, but coordinating those efforts is a mighty task. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," we're joined by Sara Schreiber, the executive director of America Votes, which works with hundreds of partners at the national and state level to deploy the most effective means of urging voters to the polls. Schreiber walks us through how coalitions of like-minded groups are formed and how the work of direct voter contact is divvied up between them. A special focus is on "blue surge" voters—those who, in the Trump era, joined the rolls for the first time—and why ensuring they continue to participate in the political process is the key to progressive victories.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also take stock of recent developments in Pennsylvania and Ohio, two Rust Belt neighbors where Republicans—for once—are breathing a sigh of relief after a pair of disastrous 2022 candidates opted against repeat bids in 2024. They then dive into the extremely belated impeachment of Texas' corrupt attorney general by his fellow Republicans and remind listeners to mark their calendars for a major special election that just got scheduled in New Hampshire.Transcript can be found here.

How can Democrats win the messaging war? It turns out there's actually a science to it, as strategic communications consultant Anat Shenker-Osorio tells us on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Shenker-Osorio explains how her research shows the importance of treating voters as protagonists; how Democrats can avoid ceding "freedom" to Republicans by emphasizing "freedoms," plural; and why it actually makes sense to call out "MAGA Republicans" (even though, yes, it's all Republicans).Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also break down a major retirement in Delaware, which paves the way for the state to elect its first Black senator, and discuss how the entrance of a prominent candidate in Michigan's Senate race likely means that Democrats will in fact host a genuinely contested primary. It all adds up to the possibility that more Black women will join the Senate in 2025 alone than in all of American history. Finally, the Davids lay out the five-year plan for Democrats to win back the North Carolina Supreme Court and drive a stake into GOP gerrymandering—again.Transcript.

Hell yeah! Democrats and progressives simply crushed it from coast to coast on Tuesday night, so co-hosts David Nir and David Beard are devoting this week's entire episode of "The Downballot" to reveling in all the highlights. At the very top of the list is Jacksonville, where Democrats won the mayor's race for just the second time in three decades—and gave the Florida Democratic Party a much-needed shot in the arm. Republicans also lost the mayor's office in the longtime conservative bastion of Colorado Springs for the first time since the city began holding direct elections for the job 45 years ago.But it doesn't stop there. Democrats held a critical seat in a special election for the Pennsylvania state House to preserve their one-seat majority in the chamber. The party's left flank also had a strong showing in Pittsburgh's Allegheny County, nominating an outspoken progressive for county executive and defeating an anti-reform incumbent for district attorney. New Hampshire Democrats, meanwhile, romped in a special election for their own state House, a positive sign for their chances of taking it back in 2024—if not sooner.Transcript.

How do you make a campaign ad that voters actually want to watch? We're discussing that critical question on this week's episode of "The Downballot" with leading Democratic ad-maker Mark Putnam, who's been responsible for some of the most memorable spots in recent years. Putnam details his creative process, which always starts with spending time with candidates to truly learn their story—and scouting locations in-depth. He then walks us through the production of the famous Jason Kander-assembles-a-gun-blindfolded ad that went viral and explains why, believe it or not, you always want footnotes in your attack ads.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also look ahead to next week's elections, headlined by the bitter GOP primary (is there any other kind?) in the Kentucky governor's race; the free-for-all Democratic primary to serve as Philadelphia's next mayor; and the special election in the Philly suburbs that could determine whether Democrats keep control of the state House. Plus: the ACLU's new effort to place an amendment on the ballot in Florida that would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution.Transcript can be found here.

It’s 2023, which may be an odd year, but that just means Virginia takes its traditional place as one of the key states to watch. With odd-year state elections, Virginia has often been a key bellwether for the rest of the country, and this year is no different. Both the state Senate and the General Assembly are up, and both chambers could be won by either party. Daily Kos Elections Editor Jeff Singer joins us to preview the key races in both the June primary and the fall general election.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss the many notable campaign announcements from the past week, including Democratic Rep. Colin Allred’s entrance into the U.S. Senate race in Texas against Ted Cruz and GOP Governor Jim Justice’s entrance into the West Virginia Senate race against Joe Manchin. Then they cover two big retirements in blue states, Senator Ben Cardin in Maryland and Governor Jay Inslee in Washington State, plus what Democrats might run to replace them.Transcript can be found here.

Can we have fairer, more representative elections in the U.S.? Absolutely, says Deb Otis on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Otis, the director of research at FairVote, tells us about her organization's efforts to advocate for two major reforms—ranked-choice voting and proportional representation—and the prospects for both. RCV, which is growing in popularity, not only helps ensure candidates win with majorities but can lower the temperature by encouraging cross-endorsements. PR, meanwhile, would give voters a stronger voice, especially when they're a minority in a dark red or dark blue area.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the entrance of a truly miserable GOP candidate into the North Carolina governor's race: the unrepentant homophobic bigot Mark Robinson, currently the state's lieutenant governor. Then they dive into a new report that conservative megadonor Peter Thiel, who was responsible for two of the very worst Republican Senate hopefuls in 2022, plans to keep his wallet shut for 2024—very probably to Mitch McConnell's relief.Transcript.

America could learn a lot from how other countries elect their leaders! Political science professor Matthew Shugart joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot to explain how a variety of electoral systems around the world operate, as well as his thoughts on which might work well here—and actually improve our democracy. Shugart gets into the weeds on proportional voting, single transferable vote, "decoy lists," and much more. If those terms are new to you, you'll definitely want to listen!Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the collapse of an effort by the Montana GOP to rig the 2024 Senate election by changing the rules for just that one race, and why New York's top court, which is finally back at full strength, could ultimately lead to a more favorable congressional map for Democrats next year.Transcript available here.

It's never too early to start talking about the House! Joining us on this week's edition of The Downballot is Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin, who offers his thoughts on the overall playing field and a wide range of key contests. Jacob explains why Lauren Boebert might have an easier time of it in her likely rematch, how some candidates have a "special sauce" that allows them to keep winning difficult districts, and why he thinks Mary Peltola is favored for re-election despite Alaska's persistent red lean.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also marvel at how the Tennessee GOP scored a remarkable own-goal in booting state Reps. Justin Jones and Justin Pearson, who've now already returned to the chamber with dramatically enhanced profiles; dissect the very obvious ploy by Montana Republicans to tilt the 2024 Senate election their way by changing the primary rules for just that one race; and break down a new Daily Kos Elections analysis of the 23 states that could add protections for abortion rights to their constitutions.Transcript available here.

Progressives scored a monumental victory in Wisconsin Tuesday night when Janet Protasiewicz flipped a pivotal seat on the state Supreme Court, and we've got plenty to say about it on this week's episode of The Downballot. Not only are the electoral implications deeply worrisome for Republicans, the court's new liberal majority has the chance to revive democracy in the Badger State by restoring abortion rights and striking down gerrymandered GOP maps. It truly is a new day—and one we've long awaited—in Wisconsin.We're also delving into the fascinating politics of Alaska with our guest this week, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Jonathan recounts his unlikely journey to the state House after winning a huge upset while still in college before explaining how Democrats, independents, and even a few Republicans forged a remarkable cross-partisan governing coalition. We also get an on-the-ground view of what Mary Peltola's stunning special election victory last year looked like to Alaska Democrats.Transcript available here.

State supreme court races are a favorite topic of ours, and there are literally dozens more on the ballot in 2024, so we're previewing the top battles with Carah Ong Whaley of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Carah tells us how and why so much money has come to be spent on supreme court elections in recent decades before diving into next year's key contests, including several states where control is on the line, like Ohio, Michigan, and Montana. With the stakes high for redistricting reform, abortion rights, and democracy, progressives everywhere will want to stay up-to-date on all of these races.Of course, there's a pivotal Supreme Court showdown on the ballot next week in Wisconsin, so co-hosts David Nir and David Beard kick things off with a preview of that matchup, as well as a crucial special election for the Wisconsin Senate and the mayoral runoff in Chicago. The Davids also dig into veteran Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee's decision to run for mayor of Houston, a major move that seriously shakes up the contest for America's fourth-largest city.We also want to say a special thanks to our producer, Cara Zelaya, whose final show is this week. Cara was instrumental in the creation and launch of The Downballot and we couldn't have done any of this without her. She'll be missed, but we wish her the absolute best in her future endeavors.Transcript available here.

It's just barely springtime in an off year, but there's been loads of election news lately, so co-hosts David Nir and David Beard have a super-sized roundup on this week's episode of The Downballot. The Davids recap the first round of voting in the race for Jacksonville mayor (which saw Democrats do unusually well) and the collapse of an effort to recall New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell before turning to big batch of 2024 updates.On tap for the Senate: The GOP's desperate effort to compete with Democratic fundraising enthusiasm by recruiting self-funders; why Republicans are afraid the guy who succeeded John Boehner in Congress will try to challenge Sherrod Brown; and how Democrats' plans to clear the field in Michigan may not succeed. Plus developments in the battle for New Hampshire's governorship, a key House seat in Wisconsin, and the saga of Tennessee's answer to George Santos.Transcript available here.

Everyone is beyond tired of sucky fundraising emails foretelling DOOM, but there's a better way. Joshua Karp and Jane Hughes join us on this week's episode of The Downballot to tell us how their new firm, Liftoff Campaigns, is breaking down the traditional silo between communications and digital outreach so that donors are treated like people, not piggybanks. Our guests explain why it's important for every candidate to establish their brand and earn the trust of their supporters rather than pummel them straight away with requests for money, and how best to do so.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss a new effort in Ohio to qualify an amendment for the November ballot that would guarantee abortion rights; the astonishing spending ratio between the two candidates running in Wisconsin's April 4 election for state Supreme Court; why GOP donors in Louisiana are desperately trying to boost an alternative candidate for governor to nutbar Attorney General Jeff Landry; and a brand-new data set from Daily Kos Elections that lets you see how every congressional and legislative district overlaps with one another and with every county in the country.Transcript available here.

Progressives have had tremendous success passing all sorts of reforms at the ballot box in recent years, including measures that have expanded Medicaid, increased the minimum wage, and created independent redistricting commissions. How have Republicans responded? By making it harder to qualify measures for the ballot.Daily Kos Elections' own Stephen Wolf joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot for a deep dive on the GOP's war on ballot initiatives, which includes burdensome signature requirements that disproportionately impact liberals; ramping up the threshold for passage for citizen-backed measures but not those referred by legislatures; and simply repealing voter-passed laws Republicans don't like. But Republican power is not unfettered, and Stephen explains how progressives can fight back by defeating efforts to curtail ballot measures—many of which voters themselves would first have to approve.Transcript available here.

What do Americans really think about the issues? It turns out they are a surprisingly liberal bunch, as Rachael Russell of Navigator Research tells us on this week's episode of The Downballot. Russell explains how Navigator conducts in-depth research to fill in gaps in policy debates with hard data instead of pundit speculation. The challenge for Democrats is that many voters say they hold progressive beliefs but still pull the lever for Republicans. That imbalance, however, presents an opportunity—Democrats just have to seize it.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap the first round of voting in the race for Chicago mayor, which saw a progressive apocalypse averted; the resolution to the long-running uncertainty over the speakership in the Pennsylvania state House that saw Joanna McClinton make history; Rep. Elissa Slotkin's entry into Michigan's open Senate race, which makes her the first prominent candidate to run; and the inexplicable decision by conservatives to go dark on the airwaves for a full week following last week's primary in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.Transcript available here.

You know about the DSCC and DCCC, but have you heard of DASS? You'll want to! We're talking with Kim Rogers, the executive director of the not-especially-well-known but crucially important Democratic Association of Secretaries of State on this week's edition of The Downballot. Rogers explains how her organization helps recruit candidates, deploy resources, and win races for secretary of state across the country—and why these elections operate so differently from many others. She also tells us about what Democratic secretaries are doing to fight disinformation and expand voting rights, and the most bonkers thing she heard come out of the mouth of a 2022 election denier.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, recap an exciting series of elections that took place on Tuesday, starting with the race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, where progressives ran up the score and landed their preferred opponent for the April 4 general election. There were also big Democratic overperformances in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Kentucky that augur well for the party. Finally, Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer joins us to preview next week's first-round faceoff in the race for mayor of Chicago—a true tossup that could see any number of different winners.Transcript available here.

Yes, electing the president by popular vote is possible! Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot is former Vermont legislator Christopher Pearson, an official with National Popular Vote, the organization advocating for states to adopt a compact that would award their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who gets the most votes nationwide. Pearson walks us through the mechanics of the compact, debunks some common misconceptions, and lays out future steps toward hitting the required 270 electoral votes for the agreement to come into force.Co-hosts David Beard and David Nir also mark The Downballot's one-year anniversary (if you can believe it) by unwrapping a present from the New York Senate, which just shot down Gov. Kathy Hochul's unacceptably conservative pick for the state's top court in epic fashion. In addition, the Davids preview key races coming up next week in Wisconsin and New Hampshire and dive into a brand-new data set from Daily Kos Elections' Stephen Wolf showing just how out of balance the Senate is: Republicans haven't won the popular vote since 1998 but have still controlled the chamber half the time since then.Transcript available here.

How can you tell when a poll is actually high quality? Natalie Jackson, research director at PRRI, joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot to discuss that and more. Jackson tells us the indicators she looks for to determine whether a survey is worth taking seriously, what she thinks the future of polling aggregation ought to look like, and why white evangelical Christians are the real outliers when it comes to religious groups' views on abortion.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also break down Democrats' big special election victories in Pennsylvania; new efforts by progressives to pick their preferred GOP opponents in two key Wisconsin races; the first true retirement from the House this cycle; and a proposal to increase the size of the House, which has been capped at 435 members for more than a century.On Daily Kos Elections: The House stopped growing over a century ago even as the U.S. quadrupled. A new bill would fix that.Transcript available here.

We're chatting with one of our favorite fellow election analysts on this week's episode of The Downballot, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball. Kyle helped call races last year for CBS and gives us a rare window inside a TV network's election night decision desk, which literally has a big button to call control of the House—that no one got to press. Kyle also dives into his new race ratings for the 2024 Senate map, including why he thinks Joe Manchin's unlikely tight-rope act might finally come to an end.In their Weekly Hits, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap big developments in two Senate contests: Rep. Adam Schiff's entry into the race to succeed Dianne Feinstein, and the GOP's unexpected show of unity in the open-seat election in Indiana. They also dissect the first poll of this year's hotly contested race for governor in Kentucky and highlight another 2023 battle that shouldn't get overlooked: the race for a vacant seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.Transcript available here.

We've got more developments in the 2024 Arizona Senate race as Congressman Ruben Gallego officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination. David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay discuss his chances in the race and how Dem-turned-Indy Kyrsten Sinema's decision on whether to run for re-election will impact Gallego's support from national Democrats. Then we discuss the upcoming Chicago mayor's race and the recent flurry of polls that have shown incumbent mayor Lori Lightfoot anywhere from leading the pack to missing out on a runoff entirely. Lastly, we touch on Virginia Senator Tim Kaine's decision to run for re-election and the importance of Virginia's 2023 state elections.After the break we're joined by Victoria McGroary, the Executive Director of BOLD PAC, which serves as the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. She breaks down how Democrats prevented losses among Hispanic voters in 2022 despite pundit predictions otherwise. We also discuss the ongoing problem of disinformation in Spanish language media and how BOLD PAC has fought back against it. And we heard about the memorable OR-6 Democratic primary from last year, where BOLD PAC's endorsed candidate, Andrea Salinas, managed to overcome a 12-1 spending disparity to defeat a crypto-backed candidate.Transcript available here.

We've got a special double-barreled, two-guest show for you on this week's episode of The Downballot! First up is Tiffany Muller, the president of End Citizens United, who discusses her group's efforts to roll back the corrupting effects of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision as we hit the ruling's 13th anniversary. Muller tells us about ECU's short- and long-term plans to enact serious campaign finance reform; how the organization has expanded into the broader voting rights arena in recent years; and research showing the surprising connection many voters drew between the GOP's attacks on democracy and their war against abortion rights.Then we're joined by law professor Quinn Yeargain to gape slack-jawed at the astonishing setback Gov. Kathy Hochul experienced in the state capitol on Wednesday when a Democratic-led Senate committee rejected her conservative pick to lead New York's top court. Yeargain explains why Hochul's threatened lawsuit to force the legislature to hold a full floor vote on Hector LaSalle defies 250 years of precedent and what will happen if she eventually retreats—as she manifestly should.Transcript available here.

Hell yeah! Election season is already here, and it's already off to an amazing start with Democrats' huge flip of a critical seat in the Virginia state Senate, which kicks off this week's episode of The Downballot. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dissect what Aaron Rouse's victory means for November (abortion is still issue #1!) when every seat in the legislature will be on the ballot. They also discuss big goings-on in two U.S. Senate races: California, where Rep. Katie Porter just became the first Democrat to kick off a bid despite Sen. Dianne Feinstein's lack of a decision about her own future, and Michigan, which just saw veteran Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announce her retirement.The Davids also delve back into a topic that frequently came up last year: redistricting. Didn't every state just draw new maps? you might ask. Yes! But many have to do so again, thanks to court rulings. Unfortunately, this gives Republicans in North Carolina and Ohio the opportunity to gerrymander once more, though there's an outside chance some Southern states could be required to draw new congressional districts where Black voters can elect their candidates of choice.Transcript available here.

What a way to start the new year! On the first episode of season two of The Downballot, we're talking with Sara Garcia, the strategy and outreach manager at Crooked Media—home of Pod Save America—about everything her organization does to mobilize progressives and kick GOP ass. Sara tells us how Crooked arose to fill a void in the media landscape, how it not only informs listeners but also gives them tools to take action, and some of her favorite shows that she loves to recommend to folks.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the Republican shitshow currently unfolding in Congress—and starkly different outcomes in two state legislatures that just elected new House speakers via bipartisan coalitions; the landslide win for the good guys in a special election primary in Virginia; why George Santos faces serious legal trouble that will very likely end with his resignation; and the massive pushback from progressive groups and labor unions against Kathy Hochul's conservative pick to be New York's top judge.Transcript available here.

What better way to wrap up the year than by previewing the biggest contests of 2023 on this week's episode of The Downballot? Progressives will want to focus on a Jan. 10 special election for the Virginia state Senate that would allow them to expand their skinny majority; the April 4 battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court that could let progressives take control from conservatives; Chicago's mayoral race; gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Louisiana; and much, much more.Of course, we might've thought we were done with 2022 after Georgia, but Kyrsten Sinema decided to make herself the center of attention again. However, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why there's much less than meets the eye to her decision to become an independent: She can't take away the Democratic majority in the Senate, and her chances at winning re-election are really poor. In fact, there's good reason to believe she'd hurt Republicans more in a three-way race. The Davids also discuss the upcoming special election for Virginia's dark blue 4th Congressional District, where the key battle for the Democratic nomination will take place in less than a week.Thank you to all our listeners for supporting The Downballot in our inaugural year. We'll be taking a break for the holidays, but we'll be back on Jan. 5 with a brand new episode.Support Aaron Rouse for the Virginia state Senate and Janet Protaseiwicz for the Wisconsin Supreme Court right herehttps://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/13/2141682/-Republicans-would-love-it-if-we-just-relaxed-but-no-chance-There-are-two-huge-races-coming-up Transcript available here.

Well, that was an awesome way to finish out the 2022 election cycle! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard revel in Raphael Warnock's runoff victory on this week's episode of The Downballot and take a deep dive into how it all came together. The Davids dig into the turnout shift between the first and second rounds of voting, what the demographic trends in the metro Atlanta area mean for Republicans, and why Democrats can trace their recent success in Georgia back to a race they lost: the famous Jon Ossoff special election in 2017.We're also joined by one of our very favorite people, Daily Kos Elections alum Matt Booker, who shares his thoughts on the midterms and tells us about his work these days as a pollster. Matt explains some of the key ways in which private polling differs from public data; how the client surveys he was privy to did not foretell a red wave; and the mechanics of how researchers put together focus groups. Matt also reminisces about his time at "DKE University" and how his experience with us prepared him for the broader world of politics.Transcript available here.

Why did Democrats do so surprisingly well in the midterms? It turns out they ran really good campaigns, as strategist Josh Wolf tells us on this week's episode of The Downballot. That means they defined their opponents aggressively, spent efficiently, and stayed the course despite endless second-guessing in the press. Wolf gives us an inside picture of how exactly these factors played out in the Arizona governor's race, one of the most important Democratic wins of the year. He also shines a light on an unsexy but crucial aspect of every campaign: how to manage a multi-million budget for an enterprise designed to spend down to zero by Election Day.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, take a look at how turnout differed between Republicans and Democrats in 2022 (and why it's bad news for the GOP for 2024); why the Republican House majority is the most precarious it's been in a long time; how bonkers conspiracy theorists in a dark-red county in Arizona could flip two major races by refusing to certify their own votes; and a key special election coming up in Wisconsin that could allow Democrats to roll back the GOP's new supermajority in the state Senate.Transcript available here.

Election season overtime is finally winding down, so Democratic operative Joe Sudbay joins David Nir on The Downballot as a guest-host this week to recap some of the last results that have just trickled in. At the top of the list is the race for Arizona attorney general, where Democrat Kris Mayes has a 510-vote lead with all ballots counted (a mandatory recount is unlikely to change the outcome). Also on the agenda is Arizona's successful Proposition 308, which will allow students to receive financial aid regardless of immigration status.Over in California, Democrats just took control of the boards of supervisors in two huge counties, Riverside and Orange—in the case of the latter, for the first time since 1976. Joe and David also discuss which Democratic candidates who fell just short this year they'd like to see try again in 2024, and what the GOP's very skinny House majority means for Kevin McCarthy's prospects as speaker.Transcript available here.

We're now in the second week of election overtime and there are still plenty of major races yet to be decided—as well as tons more great news for Democrats to exult over on this week's episode of The Downballot. On the uncalled races front, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a pair of House races in California and several legislatures that could flip from red to blue, including the Pennsylvania House. Speaking of legislatures, the Davids also go deep on what the astonishing flips in Michigan will mean for progressives and particularly organized labor.And there's more! The hosts explain why New York's court-drawn congressional map did indeed undermine Democrats (despite some claims to the contrary) and wrap up with a recap of interesting ballot measures across the country, including an Arizona amendment to create the post of lieutenant governor for the first time; minimum wage hikes in multiple states; and, in several more states, the legalization of weed plus, in Colorado, psychedelic mushrooms.Episode transcript is available here.

Holy crap, what an amazing night! Where do we even begin this week's episode of The Downballot? Well, we know exactly where: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday's extraordinary results, starting with a clear-eyed examination of the issue that animated Democrats as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. They also discuss candidate quality (still really important!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and "soft" Biden disapprovers (lots of them voted for Democrats).The Davids then catalog the uncalled races for Senate and game out what might happen in the House; review the clean sweep for the good guys in five states that had abortion-related measures on the ballot; and finish off with some delicious, gourmet schadenfreude. You won't want to miss out!Episode transcript.

At long last, the 2022 midterms are almost here! With the battle for the House front and center, we've brought back Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer to give us a window into the key races on a final pre-election episode of The Downballot. Singer discusses a wide range of contests that will offer insight into how the night is going, including top GOP pickup opportunities, second-tier Republican targets, and the seats where Democrats are on offense. And with many vote tallies likely to stretch on for some time, Singer also identifies several bellwether races in states that count quickly.We'll be covering all of these races and many, many more on Tuesday night in our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections and on Twitter. The first polls close at 6 PM ET, so come join us! And of course, we'll recap the action on next week's edition of The Downballot.Transcript is available here.

The 2022 midterms are just around the corner, and you sent us a ton of fantastic questions for The Downballot mailbag episode we promised this week, so we brought on Daily Kos Elections contributing editor Steve Singiser to help us answer them. Among the many topics we cover: which states are likely to report results slowly—and how will those results change over time; the House districts that look like key bellwethers for how the night might go, and which might offer surprises; why and how Democrats make the hard decisions on which races to triage; the top legislative chambers to keep an eye on; and plenty more!A transcript of the episode is available here.

How should we be reading the 2022 polls, in light of shifting margins and past misses? Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen joins us on The Downballot to explain how his firm weights polls to reflect the likely electorate; why Democratic leads in most surveys this year should be treated as smaller than they appear because undecided voters lean heavily anti-Biden; and the surprisingly potent impact abortion has had on moving the needle with voters despite our deep polarization.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into the third-quarter fundraising numbers for both Senate and House candidates that show Democrats crushing it; explore the GOP's $1 million infusion into Oklahoma's shockingly competitive race for governor; highlight two new resources from Daily Kos Elections: our candidate guide and our House Vulnerability Index; and explain why the epic Tory meltdown in the U.K. is not likely to lead to early elections.Next week, we’re doing a mailbag episode! Send us all your questions on the midterms and we’ll answer them. You can email us at [email protected], or you can find us on Twitter at @DKElections.Episode transcript is available here.

Abortion has been the number one topic for campaign ads this year, so we're talking with veteran ad maker Kelly Grace Gibson, the founder of the women-led Stronger Than Comms, about how Democrats are pressing their advantage on this week's edition of The Downballot. Gibson walks us through the nuts and bolts of how ads actually get made; how Democrats have shown unusual message discipline on abortion while simultaneously tailoring their messages to different audiences; and why she has hope for some progressive candidates and ballot measures even in difficult states.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also get medieval on the traditional media for its appalling display of ableism in the wake of John Fetterman's recent NBC interview; recap the absolutely wild goings-on in Los Angeles, where City Council President Nury Martinez just resigned after a racist tirade was caught on tape; dive into the unexpectedly close race for governor in Oklahoma; and highlight a brand-new database from Daily Kos Elections showing how media markets and congressional districts overlap.Episode transcript is available here.

After an erruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.Co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss Dr. Oz, puppy killer; the GOP’s hypocrisy regarding Herschel Walker’s ever-growing list of scandals; Texas Attorney General’s Ken Paxton desperate attempts to avoid testifying in an abortion case; and Brazil’s presidential runoff, where former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva remains the favorite despite far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected first-round showing.Episode transcript.

Yes, the polls still matter! This week on The Downballot, The Economist's G. Elliott Morris joins us to discuss his new book on polling, Strength in Numbers, including the early history of polling in the form of 19th century straw polls; how we can be smart consumers of polls by placing their uncertainty in context; and the surprises that have stood out in his new model forecasting the 2022 midterms.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on Pennsylvania, where Republican Doug Mastriano has called for "40 days of fasting and prayer" to save his ailing campaign for governor; dig into ad spending numbers that show Democrats airing far more spots because they aren't relying on super PACs; circle back to the J.R. Majewski stolen valor scandal, which prompted the NRCC to cut him loose; and recap the dispiriting results of Italy's general election, which saw the far-right win for the first time since Mussolini.Transcript available here.

Since Dobbs, women have registered to vote in unprecedented numbers across the country, and the first person to dig into these stunning trends was TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, who's our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bonier explains how his firm gathers data on the electorate; why this surge is likely a leading indicator showing stepped-up enthusiasm among many groups of voters, including women, young people, and people of color; how we know these new registrants disproportionately lean toward Democrats; and what it all might mean for November.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the GOP's shrinking path back to a Senate majority as Republicans abandon Arizona; an appalling "stolen valor" scandal in a key Ohio House race (expect Democratic ads on it soon); a new study indicating that Latino voters overall have not continued to move to the right since 2020; and an awesome new congressional map created by Daily Kos Elections' Daniel Donner that rectifies the common problem of traditional maps that over-emphasize rural red areas and render blue urban districts almost invisible.Transcript available here.

Michigan Democrats are defending a narrow 4-3 majority on their state Supreme Court this fall, and one incumbent on the ballot is the fascinating Richard Bernstein, our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bernstein, who made history in 2014 when he became the first blind justice in the court's history, describes his work as a disability rights advocate prior to joining the bench; how voters identified their struggles with his own during his first campaign; and why he wrote such a feisty response last week when a conservative colleague wanted to block an abortion rights measure from going before voters in November.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recount the final primaries of the year, which saw MAGA candidates sweep three congressional races in New Hampshire, much to the consternation of whatever passes for the GOP establishment these days. They also try to understand why on earth Lindsey Graham introduced a 15-week national abortion ban this week, which has some Republicans twisting in knots and others—including several in competitive races—inexplicably joining in.To support Justice Bernstein, please visit JusticeWithJulia.com, where you'll find the slate of state supreme court candidates that Daily Kos has endorsed with actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus.Episode transcript available here.

Daily Kos Elections just released a massive new data set that breaks down the results of the 2020 presidential election for every last one of the nation's new congressional districts, so we're dissecting what it all means with longtime DKE writer Stephen Wolf. Wolf explains why these numbers closely predict the outcome of most House elections, how they show the way in which the overall playing field has grown even more tilted toward Republicans, what the most evenly divided district in the country is, and much more.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the fallout from the huge Democratic upset in the special election for Alaska's lone House seat, which has Republicans pointing fingers at one another (but mostly at Sarah Palin); gawk at the Senate GOP's huge problems with money and candidate quality that's led to open feuding at the highest levels of the party; recap the Massachusetts primaries; and preview the final primaries of the year in New Hampshire and Rhode Island.Episode transcript available here.

This episode originally aired August 17, 2022This week, a special guest joins us on The Downballot to shine a spotlight on elections for state supreme courts: actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Like Daily Kos, Julia has long supported candidates running at all levels of the ballot, and this year, after the U.S. Supreme Court's demolition of Roe, races for state supreme courts across the country deserve more attention than ever.In a twist, Julia turns the tables on us and takes over the hosting duties from the Davids to quiz Nir and Beard about these contests. Topics include how bizarre it is that we elect judges in the first place (almost no other country does!), what kinds of issues these courts are likely to decide in the coming years (abortion and gerrymandering, for starters), and most importantly, how ordinary folks can make a difference.Together, Daily Kos and Julia are proud to announce their endorsement of seven Democratic candidates running for closely divided courts in Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio. You can support this slate by going to JusticewithJulia.com and donating today. These races all have small budgets, so for small-dollar grassroots donors, your contributions will get a huge bang for the buck. Thank you for listening and giving!Episode transcript is available here.

The end of Roe has returned the issue of abortion to the states, and that means few elections are more important than those for state legislature. On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Aaron Kleinman, director of research for the States Project, which works to flip targeted legislatures nationwide. Aaron reaches back to the notorious "Powell Memo" to explain why legislative power is so crucial; discusses how Pennsylvania's unusually high incumbent re-election rate poses an obstacle for Democrats; lays out the stakes for Democrats trying to keep Republicans from gaining supermajorities in North Carolina; and much more.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap this week's elections, starting with the massive upset in New York's 19th—a race Republicans expected to win handily. There were also two colossal Democratic primaries for neighboring House seats in New York City that finally got resolved, plus a near-win by the very worst MAGA candidate of them all in a district near Orlando. And we update the ongoing vote tally in Alaska, where a Democrat is in surprising contention for the state's lone House seatEpisode transcript available here.

This week, a special guest joins us on The Downballot to shine a spotlight on elections for state supreme courts: actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Like Daily Kos, Julia has long supported candidates running at all levels of the ballot, and this year, after the U.S. Supreme Court's demolition of Roe, races for state supreme courts across the country deserve more attention than ever.In a twist, Julia turns the tables on us and takes over the hosting duties from the Davids to quiz Nir and Beard about these contests. Topics include how bizarre it is that we elect judges in the first place (almost no other country does!), what kinds of issues these courts are likely to decide in the coming years (abortion and gerrymandering, for starters), and most importantly, how ordinary folks can make a difference.Together, Daily Kos and Julia are proud to announce their endorsement of seven Democratic candidates running for closely divided courts in Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio. You can support this slate by going to JusticewithJulia.com and donating today. These races all have small budgets, so for small-dollar grassroots donors, your contributions will get a huge bang for the buck. Thank you for listening and giving!Episode transcript is available here.

Black voters are the most stalwart constituency in the Democratic Party, but candidates cannot take them for granted. Media consultant Terrance Green joins us on this week's edition of The Downballot to discuss his career in politics communicating with voters, including leading the largest-ever paid media operation to turn out the Black vote on behalf of the Biden-Harris campaign. Immediately after that historic victory, he found himself targeting white voters on behalf of a Black Senate hopeful, Raphael Warnock, in Georgia's epic runoffs. Terrance also tells us how he's helped African American candidates turn back racist attacks and what he thinks the impact of having so many high-profile Black Senate contenders this year will be.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, recap this week's races, including a special election in a conservative Minnesota House district that saw the Republican badly underperform Donald Trump; a surprisingly close call for one of the most vocal progressives on Capitol Hill, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar; and the Democratic primary for Vermont's open House seat, which means that, at long last, the state will almost certainly end its status as the only one never to send a woman to Congress come next year.Episode transcript to come.