The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OfQbjF This week’s Dividend Cafe is released Thursday ahead of the Good Friday market holiday and addresses market volatility driven by a supply shock and geopolitical turmoil around Iran, including swings in WTI crude from the 60s to above $109 amid expectations around the President’s speech and fears of Strait of Hormuz disruption. David argues these headline-driven price moves should not be the basis for energy investing; instead, energy is foundational to economic growth—“energy transformed”—with both physical and human (metaphysical) components that create goods, services, profits, and prosperity. Bahnsen contends investors were underweight energy, noting energy’s very low share of S&P 500 capitalization despite its broad, evergreen economic importance and recent sector gains. The energy thesis is positioned as decades-long, extending beyond oil and gas to the wider energy ecosystem and infrastructure, including electricity needs tied to data centers. 00:00 Welcome and holiday timing 00:22 Energy headlines and market volatility 01:21 Energy transformed drives growth 02:20 WTI spike and supply shock 03:47 Why not trade the chart 04:46 Physical and human energy 06:59 Supply plus wise transformation 07:59 Energy ecosystem and data centers 10:10 S&P 500 energy underweight 11:50 War questions miss the point 13:46 How energy companies make money 15:59 Beyond oil and gas thesis 16:56 Easter sign off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on April 1, noting a positive market day with the S&P up about 0.5% and the NASDAQ up nearly 0.8% while the 10-year yield is around 4.32%. He attributes improved sentiment to a robust rally tied to Iran-related news and expectations of a potentially positive announcement from President Trump. He emphasizes the need for objective, non-politicized asset allocation focused on markets and the economy rather than geopolitical prognostication. Addressing a common question, he explains why Middle East disruptions can raise U.S. oil prices: oil is a global commodity and U.S. refineries are geared toward heavier Brent crude even though the U.S. produces much light sweet crude, with about one-third of consumption imported. He highlights stronger-than-expected ADP payrolls, February retail sales, and an ISM manufacturing beat, keeping both services and manufacturing in expansion. 00:00 Market Open And Q2 Kickoff 00:33 Iran Headlines And Trump Update 01:05 Staying Objective As Investors 02:41 Why Oil Prices Rise Globally 04:00 Key Economic Data Beats 04:54 Wrap Up And Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Tuesday, March 31, recapping a broad market rally with the S&P 500 up about 2%, the Nasdaq up about 3%, and bonds higher as the 10-year yield fell roughly 3.5 bps to around 4.30%. He says headline-driven moves and short covering are fueling volatility, noting markets react to shifting commentary about a potential end to the war and the Strait of Hormuz. He addresses a question about the U.S. stopping oil exports, arguing it’s unlikely, would reduce profits and jobs, and U.S. refineries are largely configured for heavier crude unlike domestic light sweet production, making a shift a decade-long project. Economic updates include the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (+0.2% in January; +1.2% YoY), JOLTS job openings at 6.9 million (in line), and consumer confidence beating in March. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:19 Market Rally Recap 00:46 Headlines and Positioning 01:42 Oil Export Thought Experiment 02:31 Housing Price Update 03:13 Jobs and Confidence Data 04:08 Wrap Up and Tomorrow 04:24 Disclosures and Disclaimer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dTkNSp The Monday Dividend Cafe recaps sharp intraday volatility as the Dow finished slightly up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down, with financials and utilities outperforming and industrials and technology lagging; the Nasdaq is down about 10% since the recent selloff began and many “Mag Seven” stocks are down over 20%, alongside steep declines in bitcoin and other high-risk names. David describes a broad risk-off posture intensified by the Iran-related military situation, notes WTI around $104 (up roughly 50% since the war began), and highlights relative strength in energy, midstream, refiners, and other commodity-sensitive areas. Bond yields remain elevated but the 10-year fell about nine basis points to 4.35%, and he argues long-end term premium is likely too high. He advises against disrupting a coherent investment plan amid uncertainty, covers brief policy updates (DHS funding, a 401(k) private markets rule proposal, David Sachs leaving his crypto/AI role, an Anthropic-related court ruling, and Fed futures), and previews an energy-focused Dividend Cafe later in the week. 00:00 Market Whipsaw Recap 00:48 Risk Curve Reality Check 01:59 Bonds Yields and Term Premium 03:25 Sector Winners and Losers 04:18 Stay the Course Investing 05:48 War Headlines and Uncertainty 06:37 Policy Updates and 401k Rule 07:56 Housing and Fed Odds 08:39 Oil Midstream and Wrap Up 09:03 Closing Notes and Week Ahead Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bzTmf0 David Bahnsen reviews recent market weakness and volatility and asks whether the secular bull market remains structurally intact, arguing the exact start date (2009, 2019, or late 2022) is ultimately semantic. He says bull markets are driven by corporate profits and sentiment rooted in economic reality, and that long-term history trends upward despite periodic recessions, geopolitical shocks, and bear markets. To assess sustainability, he focuses on three factors: labor markets, financial conditions, and corporate profits. He describes “purgatory” data—benign jobless claims but weaker hiring intentions and openings; tightening but not extreme credit conditions; and strong expected profit growth that is also vulnerable to disappointment amid high valuations. He concludes portfolio positioning matters more than predictions, emphasizing dividend growth investing as a defensive approach for both accumulators and retirees. 00:00 Bull Market Check-In 01:30 When Did It Start 04:34 Why Definitions Don’t Matter 05:04 What Ends Bull Markets 10:07 Labor Market Purgatory 12:06 Tightening Financial Conditions 13:35 Corporate Profits Outlook 14:59 Portfolio Takeaways 15:36 Why Dividend Growth Wins 17:53 Final Thoughts and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Thursday, March 26, Brian Szytel reports a broad market selloff (Dow down over 400 points, S&P down ~1.5%, Nasdaq down ~2%) driven by rotation out of AI/social-media tech and into energy and staples as Brent and WTI oil rise over 4% amid U.S.-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. He notes the disruption also affects helium transport, with 27% of global helium transiting the strait and Taiwan sourcing about 69% of its helium that way, posing potential chip-production risks if prolonged. He outlines a U.S. “15-point plan” for Iran and warns failed negotiations could escalate, including actions on Iranian energy assets and possible ground troop deployment. Bonds also sell off after three weak Treasury auctions, pushing the 10-year yield up about 10 bps. He advises against trading around geopolitical events and explains WTI is globally priced. Initial jobless claims were 210,000, with muted labor-market activity. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 00:41 Oil Surge and Strait Risks 01:00 Helium and Chip Supply Threat 02:05 US Iran 15 Point Plan 03:15 Bonds Slide and Yields Jump 03:39 Don’t Trade Geopolitics 04:19 Who Sets WTI Prices 05:17 Jobless Claims Check In 05:59 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Wednesday, March 25, Brian Szytel reports markets finished higher for the first time in a week, with the Dow up 305 points, the S&P 500 up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq up just over 0.7%, while yields and oil fell (10-year down about five basis points to 4.33; Brent down a few percent). He attributes the move to renewed U.S. rhetoric about a 15-point proposal to Iran aimed at de-escalation, followed by Iranian media calling it illogical, framing this as typical negotiation as a U.S. offer window nears expiration. He notes equities are only about 5–6% off highs and credit spreads have not moved much. He shifts to concerns about AI-driven market concentration, heavy AI venture capital exposure, and unresolved ROI. He explains how information gets “priced in” via many participants and probabilities, and cites hotter-than-expected February import (1.3%) and export (1.5%) prices. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:16 Market Snapshot 01:03 Iran Deal Headlines 02:14 Volatility and Credit Spreads 02:33 AI Concentration Risk 03:06 What Priced In Means 04:20 Import Export Price Data 05:03 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a choppy, directionless market day marked by early heavy losses, a midday rebound, and a late fade amid negative sentiment tied to Middle East tensions: the Dow fell 84 points, the S&P 500 lost just over 0.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with tech weaker while defensives, dividend payers, and energy (helped by higher oil) held up better. He discusses conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran negotiations and expects uncertainty to persist for several days, while noting markets still seem to price in a potential off-ramp. He highlights that high-yield credit spreads remain tight at 319 bps over Treasuries, not signaling recession risk. Addressing a stagflation question, he argues current conditions differ from the 1970s despite tariff-driven one-time price effects. Economic updates were broadly positive: services and manufacturing PMIs stayed above 50, Q4 productivity was revised to 1.8%, and the Richmond Fed index was flat but beat expectations. 00:00 Market Recap Today 01:04 Middle East Tensions 02:05 Markets Still Hopeful 02:28 Credit Spreads Check 03:24 Stagflation Question 03:50 Why Not the 1970s 04:48 Tariffs and Inflation 05:35 Economic Data Rundown 06:36 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4c6aI2f In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recounts extreme market volatility after futures fell ~350 points overnight, then swung over 1,000 points higher on a Trump tweet claiming “very good and productive” U.S.-Iran talks and a five-day postponement of strikes; Iran denied negotiations, yet markets held gains, with the Dow closing up 631 points (+1.38%), S&P 500 up 1.15%, and Nasdaq up 1.38% amid large intraday ranges. Oil spiked near $104 then slid, with crude closing at $89 (-9.5%), while all 11 sectors finished positive led by consumer discretionary; healthcare lagged. Gold remained down ~16% from its high as the U.S. dollar drew safe-haven flows. The host highlights key near-term signals: Iran’s regional attacks and Strait of Hormuz developments, notes uncertainty about a market bottom, mentions TSA funding issues, shifting Fed expectations and internal disagreement, and midstream/LNG dynamics tied to offline capacity. 00:00 Wild Futures Whipsaw 00:45 Trump Tweet Sparks Rally 02:39 Did Iran Talks Happen 05:41 What Markets Watch Next 06:30 Sector Moves and Gold Drop 08:01 Have We Hit a Bottom 09:20 Policy Fed and Energy Notes 10:40 Week Ahead and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47xUXzF David Bahnsen hosts this week’s Dividend Cafe, briefly noting ongoing Iran-related market volatility but avoiding a third straight week of geopolitical speculation, criticizing market pundits for pseudo-military commentary. He instead addresses private credit, arguing mainstream narratives wrongly conflate liquidity/redemption features with claims of current, broad credit distress. He says reported loan issues are being overstated, noting a $600 million sale from a multi-billion-dollar portfolio cleared at 99.7% of par, and that future defaults—if they rise—won’t be monolithic and require manager-, collateral-, and portfolio-level nuance. He outlines five points: avoid simplistic AI/software assumptions; recent loan sales were near par; losses fall on investors, not banks, making risk non-systemic; a washout of weak managers can strengthen capital allocation; and investors should distinguish good vs bad and aligned vs non-aligned managers. He adds software loan yields rose while total loan yields are lower than a year to 18 months ago. 00:00 Welcome and Market Volatility 00:42 Why Not Iran Again 02:51 Private Credit Enters Spotlight 03:25 Defaults vs Liquidity Confusion 04:57 What the Facts Show 06:11 AI Software Loan Hype 07:06 Five Key Takeaways 08:56 Systemic Risk Myth 10:20 Alignment Matters Most 11:28 Chatter vs Reality 12:37 Chart and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile, mostly down trading day with a late rally that still ended negative, warning against trying to time markets off Middle East headlines as volatility persists absent de-escalation. He notes Brent spiked to 111 then closed near 107 and WTI around 95–96 amid strikes affecting global LNG and energy infrastructure, and argues oil over 100 can shave GDP over time; markets appear priced for tensions to abate, with repricing risk if the conflict drags on. Offsetting positives include $160B in Q1 tax refunds (up 14% YoY), a shift from QT to balance-sheet expansion, GSE mortgage purchases, and financial deregulation reducing bank reserve requirements. He explains Strait of Hormuz risk (20% of global supply) drives prices, with speculation playing a role; the U.S. still imports ~35% of consumption. Data: jobless claims 205 vs 215, Philly Fed beat, wholesale inventories -0.5%, new home sales 587 vs 719. 00:00 Market Volatility Recap 00:55 Oil Shock and GDP Drag 01:43 Tailwinds Stimulus 03:12 Timing the Crosscurrents 04:14 Hormuz and Price Mechanics 05:18 US Imports and Refinery Reality 05:53 Economic Data Scorecard 06:36 Close and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports modestly positive markets from The Bahnsen Group’s Newport Beach office: the Dow rose 46 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.25%, the Nasdaq rose nearly 0.5%, and the 10-year yield fell 2 bps to 4.20% after trading in a 4.15%–4.30% range. Economic data were light, with February pending home sales notably stronger than expected, possibly reflecting slightly lower mortgage rates and pent-up demand. He previews upcoming PPI data and the Fed’s meeting conclusion, expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, while watching potential dot-plot changes amid new geopolitical developments. He addresses three market concerns—war with Iran, private credit default fears, and slowing AI capex—and explains fiduciary duty versus broker suitability standards. 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:41 Housing Data Snapshot 01:15 Fed Meeting Preview 01:39 Three Market Worries 01:56 Iran War Pricing 02:49 Private Credit Fears 03:51 AI Capex Reality Check 04:27 What Fiduciary Means 05:19 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lFUmle The episode recaps a broadly positive market day with the Dow up 388 points and all 11 sectors higher as tech and consumer discretionary led, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.22%. It notes that 43% of S&P 500 companies hit a 20-day low amid war-driven volatility, highlights extreme index concentration that could worsen if major private firms go public, and questions default fears given high-yield spreads near 3.17%. On Iran, the U.S. conducted targeted strikes while leaving energy infrastructure intact, and the Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk as oil closed above $94, with China potentially involved in reopening efforts and a Trump–Xi meeting delayed. Economic updates include Q4 real GDP revised down to 0.7%, flat durable goods orders, modest industrial production growth, and expectations that major central banks hold rates while guidance drives markets. 00:00 Welcome and Resources 00:47 Market Rally Recap 02:35 Index Concentration Risks 03:33 Private Credit Reality Check 04:42 Iran Strikes and Strait Risk 07:03 GDP Revision and Growth Drivers 08:14 Consumer and Industry Signals 09:35 Central Banks and Energy Outlook 10:52 Week Ahead and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40tWZg8 David Bahnsen reviews an eventful mid-March 2026 market backdrop through five themes: the Iran war and its impact on oil and volatility; the state of the economy after tariff changes; private credit; AI; and a rotation in market leadership. He notes large daily market swings driven by uncertainty, but limited net movement, and argues volatility is largely immaterial for disciplined investors. The key economic risk is disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as insurers and shippers avoid the waterway, lifting oil from the low 80s toward the 90s and potentially above 100, which would meaningfully compress consumer and investment activity if sustained. He sees evidence of economic drag (weaker GDP revisions, modest job growth) alongside tariff-driven goods inflation offsetting services disinflation. He criticizes conflating private-credit default fears with liquidity issues and stresses idiosyncratic underwriting, recovery rates, and coming opportunity. He attributes AI weakness to valuation and fatigue while warning against treating the theme as monolithic. He highlights a rotation toward energy, utilities, staples, and industrials. 00:00 Friday Dividend Cafe Intro 01:07 Five Big Market Themes 02:25 Iran War and Volatility 04:19 Oil Shock and Strait Risk 07:45 Economy After Tariffs 10:02 Private Credit Fears 12:40 AI Valuations and Fatigue 14:34 Market Rotation Winners 15:27 Chart of the Week and Wrap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On March 11 from West Palm Beach, Brian Szytel reports a mostly negative but relatively benign market day amid volatility tied to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and surging energy prices (Brent ~$92.77, WTI ~$88.29). February CPI came in as expected: headline +0.3% and core +0.2%, with year-over-year headline 2.4% and core 2.5%; he notes current oil moves could have lifted year-over-year inflation to ~2.8–2.9%, though de-escalation or large IEA releases could offset. He highlights shelter’s lagging but cooling impact (rent measures up just 0.1–0.2%), important given shelter’s 35% CPI weight versus energy’s 7%. He discusses a new Fed chair in May aiming to cut short rates while shrinking the balance sheet, arguing productivity gains from AI and weaker labor data support easing. He also answers that TBG charges no extra external fees for alternative funds beyond internal fund expenses. 00:00 Market Recap and Volatility 00:44 Energy Prices and CPI Print 01:30 Oil Shock Scenarios and Offsets 02:34 Shelter Inflation Finally Cools 03:35 New Fed Chair and Rate Path 05:00 Alternative Funds Fees Explained 06:35 Wrap Up and Next Update Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe (Tuesday, March 10) recaps a mixed market day that started higher on optimism from comments that the war would end soon, then faded to flat after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz amid intensified Middle East conflict. He notes modest economic releases: the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 98.8 (near historical average) and February existing home sales above expectations at over 4 million, suggesting some housing thaw as rates ease. He explains the Strait’s global importance (about 20% of oil/LNG and 30% of helium) and estimates a ~0.4% GDP impact if disruptions persist, contributing to higher long rates and a steepening yield curve. He advises against timing volatility and discusses defense contractors, emphasizing fundamentals and the ability of large firms to develop or acquire new technologies. 00:00 Market Open And Headlines 00:48 Economic Data Check In 01:27 Strait Of Hormuz Stakes 02:18 Rates And Yield Curve 02:51 Staying Invested Through Volatility 03:19 Defense Stocks And Cheap Weapons 04:50 How We Invest In Defense 05:16 Wrap Up And Q And A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4lfOy1s The episode reviews continued heightened, two-way intraday market volatility tied to the Iran military operation, highlighted by a Dow swing from sharply down to closing up over 200 points and oil’s brief spike near $115 before falling back to about $83–$84 after comments that the war may be nearly over. David argues these violent moves reflect short-term trading, hedging, and speculation, and advises long-term investors to avoid reacting. He notes the 10-year yield fell to about 4.1%, technology led while financials lagged, and last week’s index declines were modest despite some weak breadth. He discusses oil and VIX backwardation, shipping/insurance uncertainties in the Strait, debate over targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, and risks of bad policy if oil rises. Bahnsen also cites a “horrific” jobs report with unemployment at 4.4% and significant job losses and revisions, and previews CPI Wednesday. 00:00 Volatility Backdrop 00:54 Wild Market Reversal 01:47 Oil Spike Explained 04:10 Ignore The Noise 04:31 Rates Sectors Breadth 06:18 Backwardation Signals 07:42 War Timeline Shipping 09:57 Policy Risks Oil 10:42 Jobs Report Shock 12:33 Energy CPI Outlook 13:35 Wrap Up Stand Pat Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46HCMXH From Nashville, Dividend Cafe host David Bahnsen discusses investor implications of the U.S. military operation that began in Iran, emphasizing the discomfort of analyzing markets amid potential casualties. He notes the Dow is down about 3% on the week but highlights extreme intraday volatility as a sign of uncertainty rather than news-driven moves. Bahnsen argues the key market driver is oil: WTI has surged into the 90s, up over 32% in a week, while futures show backwardation implying a temporary shock. He cites knock-on effects including higher shipping costs, sidelined container ships in the Persian Gulf, and aluminum at four-year highs. Political ramifications could affect markets via midterm outcomes. He advises investors not to change asset allocation or trade the “fog of war,” expecting volatility to persist while focusing on long-term dividend compounding. 00:00 Welcome From Nashville 01:01 War And Investor Lens 02:54 Market Drop Versus Volatility 06:45 Fog Of War Uncertainty 09:24 Oil Shock And Backwardation 11:26 Shipping Metals And Gas 15:09 Political Ripple Effects 18:16 What Investors Should Do 20:04 Closing Thoughts And Prayer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile market day with a broad selloff: the Dow fell 784 points after being down over 1,100 intraday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined modestly, with tech relatively stronger on AI-related earnings. Despite headlines tied to Iran, he notes markets are only slightly down overall and still focused on positive economic fundamentals. He highlights supportive data: initial jobless claims met expectations at 213, import prices rose less than expected, and productivity surged to 2.8% versus 1.8% expected (with prior quarter revised higher), though labor costs also rose 2.8%. He discusses whether AI may be contributing to productivity gains but wants more quarters of evidence. Addressing questions about Iran and U.S. debt, he contrasts it with Afghanistan’s 20-year, $2T ground war, emphasizes oil risk via the Strait of Hormuz, and says dollar impact depends on unknowns. 00:00 Market Volatility Recap 01:05 Staying Invested Amid Geopolitics 01:21 Economic Data Three Signals 01:54 AI And Productivity Debate 03:16 Client Question War And Debt 03:37 Afghanistan Comparison Costs 04:19 Oil Shock And Dollar Impact 05:17 Closing Thoughts And Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a rebound day in markets with broad gains (Dow +238, S&P +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.3%) amid headline-driven volatility tied to Iran and renewed tariff discussion. He notes Secretary Bessent’s comments on Section 122 potentially moving tariffs from 10% to 15%, which would still mean $65–$70B less in taxes than under IEPA, helping especially smaller and mid-sized businesses. Key market watchpoints are oil and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and bond yields, which rose with higher energy and inflation expectations rather than signaling a flight to safety; the 10-year is around 4.07%. He reiterates a midterm outlook of Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate. Economic data were strong, led by ISM services at 56.1, alongside services PMI at 51.7 and ADP private payrolls at 63K. He also addresses software stocks, viewing AI-driven selloffs as selective opportunity with potential margin benefits. 00:00 Market Rebound Recap 00:42 Tariffs Back in Focus 01:45 Iran Risks and Oil 02:41 Volatility and Bond Yields 03:49 Midterm Politics Update 04:27 Economic Data Rundown 05:33 AI and Software Stocks 06:47 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Tuesday, March 3, Brian Szytel reports a volatile session where the Dow opened down about 850 points, fell as much as 1,200, and recovered to close down about 400, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down about 1% and moving more in unison; the 10-year yield rose only 1 bp after being up over 6 bps earlier. Markets reacted to fears around a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly lifted oil over 9% before closing up 2.8%, and to U.S. assurances of tanker insurance/protection that eased inflation expectations; TIPS breakevens jumped about 20 bps. He notes LNG is cut off to most Middle East countries and export transportation is down 20%, with U.S. gas about 40% cheaper than Europe/Asia. He previews key week data (ADP, PMI/ISM services, Beige Book, claims, productivity, and the employment report) and answers an AI question: U.S. power upgrades are “when, not if” despite regulatory delays and natural-gas advantages, while China faces chip export controls; U.S.–China AI partnership is unlikely due to national security concerns. 00:00 Market Selloff Recap 00:36 Strait Tensions and Oil Spike 02:03 Energy Supply Disruptions 02:27 War Headlines and Market Context 03:16 Inflation Breakevens and TIPS 03:32 Staying Calm in Volatility 04:12 Week Ahead Economic Data 04:52 Ask TBG AI and Energy 05:24 US Power Buildout Outlook 06:33 China Chips and DeepSeek Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NdZ2Sm In a Monday Dividend Cafe recorded before the market close, David Bahnsen discusses the market and energy implications of weekend U.S. military actions involving Iran, emphasizing the show is not for strategic or editorial war analysis. He notes futures opened down about 500 points but equities recovered to roughly flat, while oil rose about 6–9% to around $70 and U.S. LNG-related names moved on the prospect of greater export demand if Middle Eastern supply is disrupted. He highlights the absence of a traditional “flight to safety,” with Treasury yields higher across the curve (10-year up about 9 bps, 2-year up about 11 bps) and defensives lagging while energy and technology led. Bahnsen argues outcomes hinge on conflict duration, but elevated valuations and broader uncertainties (AI, private credit, tariffs, courts) raise risk and volatility. 00:00 Monday Market Setup 00:51 What This Show Covers 02:21 Futures Drop Then Recover 03:26 Oil Moves And LNG Angle 04:50 Conflict Duration Scenarios 06:47 Why Markets Stay Calm 08:16 Bonds And Sector Signals 10:09 Valuations And Uncertainty 11:59 Closing Thoughts And Prayer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com