Monday - March 2, 2026
Market Reaction to Iran Strikes: Oil Up, Stocks Flat, Bonds Sell Off
The Dividend Cafe · The Bahnsen Group
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Show Notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NdZ2Sm
In a Monday Dividend Cafe recorded before the market close, David Bahnsen discusses the market and energy implications of weekend U.S. military actions involving Iran, emphasizing the show is not for strategic or editorial war analysis. He notes futures opened down about 500 points but equities recovered to roughly flat, while oil rose about 6–9% to around $70 and U.S. LNG-related names moved on the prospect of greater export demand if Middle Eastern supply is disrupted. He highlights the absence of a traditional “flight to safety,” with Treasury yields higher across the curve (10-year up about 9 bps, 2-year up about 11 bps) and defensives lagging while energy and technology led. Bahnsen argues outcomes hinge on conflict duration, but elevated valuations and broader uncertainties (AI, private credit, tariffs, courts) raise risk and volatility.
00:00 Monday Market Setup
00:51 What This Show Covers
02:21 Futures Drop Then Recover
03:26 Oil Moves And LNG Angle
04:50 Conflict Duration Scenarios
06:47 Why Markets Stay Calm
08:16 Bonds And Sector Signals
10:09 Valuations And Uncertainty
11:59 Closing Thoughts And Prayer
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com