The Asia Chessboard

This week, Mike is joined by the Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) to discuss the role of Congress in decision-making on U.S. national security policy in the Asia-Pacific. In their discussion, they look at strategic competition with China and the importance of working jointly with allies and partners, especially through exercising together. They also highlight the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a bipartisan initiative introduced by Senator Reed in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021. How can the U.S. increase its deterrence in the region? What can Congress do to signal our commitments to our allies and partners?

This week, Mike is joined by two CSIS colleagues who are leading thinkers on Southeast Asia in Washington: Murray Hiebert, Senior Associate of the Southeast Asia Program, and Greg Poling, Senior Fellow of the Southeast Asia Program and Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. They focus their discussion on Murray's new book, Under Beijing's Shadow: Southeast Asia's China Challenge, which details the response of different Southeast Asian countries to China's rise and argues that countries view China both as an opportunity and a challenge. In formulating U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia, how do we deal with these countries' competing economic and security interests?

Russian and Chinese Interference is becoming an increasingly important part of the strategic chessboard in the Asia-Pacific. This week, Mike is joined by Amy Searight, Senior Associate for Asia at CSIS, and Heather Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe at CSIS, to discuss their new report on countering Russian and Chinese influence activities. Through looking at different case studies, Amy and Heather outline the similarities and differences between Russian and Chinese influence campaigns, and explain how they learn from one another. Finally, they give recommendations for how countries in the region can counter these activities, which are often aimed at breaking apart U.S. alliances.

In part two of Mike's discussion with Abe Denmark and Mira Rapp-Hooper, the three take a look at the importance of alliance coordination in the Indo-Pacific, the challenges U.S. alliances currently face, and how the U.S. alliance network factors into competition with China. What are the major issue areas that U.S. and allied officials are looking at today? What are the prospects for networking America's Pacific and Atlantic alliances?

Mike is joined by Abe Denmark, Director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss the past, present, and future of the U.S. alliance system in the Indo-Pacific. What are the major strategic decision points facing the U.S. and its allies in the Indo-Pacific? Is present friction within the alliance network emblematic of the current administration or broader, more systemic issues? Mike, Mira, and Abe frame the discussion around Mira and Abe's new books on alliances: Mira's "Shields of the Republic" and Abe's "U.S. Strategy in the Asian century."

Mike is joined in this episode by former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby, with a special guest appearance by CSIS U.S. Alliances Project Director Patrick Buchan. Mike, Bridge, and Pat discuss the planning process for the National Defense Strategy and its impact on force posture in the Indo-Pacific. How are the interests of allies accounted for in the drafting of major planning documents like the NDS? How does the NDS envision the U.S. taking advantage of a post-INF Asia? How does the NDS differ from or resemble the Obama-era “pivot to Asia?”

The story of grand strategy on the Asia Chessboard is a story in part about access to energy, both for consumers and producers alike. With COVID-19 delivering a major shock to the system, how are Asian producers and consumers adapting their strategies to the new reality? Has the pandemic merely exacerbated old energy-related tensions, or should observers expect new disputes to emerge? How can consumers create a sustainable post-pandemic energy mix, and how can producers generate greater access?

In a special joint-episode, Mike is joined by Representative Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, an up-and-coming voice on Asia strategy in Congress. The two discuss the role of Congress in policymaking towards the region and the domestic politics of China policy. Who are the players on the Hill? What are the issues? How do local concerns over agricultural exports and supply chains shape debates about decoupling? How do members of Congress interact with America's Indo-Pacific allies? Be sure to check out Rep. Gallagher's podcast The NEW Look for a counterpart discussion and interview of Mike.

In the twentieth episode of The Asia Chessboard, Mike is joined by Georgetown Professor Diana Kim to discuss Diana's new book, Empires of Vice, a look at how colonial administrations came to ban drugs across Asian territories. How did this process affect the development of governing norms in Asia? What impacts did these models of prohibition have on contemporary illicit markets across Asia? Are norms generated on the local level or with central governments?

With the coronavirus pandemic sweeping through the Asia Chessboard economically and geopolitically, Mike is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University to discuss what the viral crisis portends for the U.S.-China relationship, America's allies in the Indo-Pacific, and the future role of Asia. Will China emerge from the crisis in a stronger position regionally and globally? How does the coronavirus impact arguments for so-called "decoupling?" What has the crisis revealed about different models of government across Asia?

With climate change creating new sea routes through the Arctic circle, China is making moves to assert navigation and scientific rights in the region. Mike is joined by CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe Heather Conley to discuss China’s role in this emerging region of the Asia Chessboard. Do Russian moves in the Arctic make it more of a factor on the Asia chessboard? How do Russian and Chinese interests in the Arctic converge and diverge? What is the present level of risk for the U.S. in the Arctic, and how can it act alone and in concert with its Asian allies to shore up presence in the far north?

Lynchpin of ASEAN and sitting astride some of the globe’s most important sea lines of communications, Indonesia is a critical part of the Asia Chessboard. Mike is joined by former Indonesian ambassador to the U.S. Dr. Dino Djalal to discuss Indonesia’s strategic culture and relationship with the U.S. How is Indonesia managing U.S.-China strategic competition? How does the next generation of Indonesian strategic thinkers view Indonesia’s place in the region and its relationships with Indo-Pacific great powers?

As strategic competition between the U.S. and China heats up, old Cold War-era questions on the importance of values are being asked anew: to what extent does ideology, democracy in particular, factor into U.S. foreign policy in Asia? Mike is joined by Ambassador Derek Mitchell of the National Democratic Institute and Dr. Dan Twining of the International Republican Institute to dive into the past, present, and future roles of democracy support in U.S. Asia policy. The three begin by discussing the cliched idea that the U.S. must always choose between promotion of its values and defense of its hard interests. Mike, Derek, and Dan then turn to how the U.S. should approach Asian allies whose democratic institutions are under attack domestically and from abroad. The trio conclude the discussion by examining how the U.S. might encourage its democratic allies in Asia to see how support for democratic governance benefits their own security concerns.

Mike sits down with Keio University professor Yuichi Hosoya to discuss one of the longest-tenured players on the Asia chessboard, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Mike and Yuichi kick off the episode by discussing Yuichi’s role as both an academic and an informal adviser to the Abe government on foreign policy. The two then turn to discussing how history and foreign policy are taught in Japanese universities. The conversation then moves towards analyzing the cornerstone of Abe’s contribution to the Asia chessboard, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). What does FOIP mean to Japan and to Abe? Is it fair to characterize FOIP as a counter-China strategy? What is ASEAN’s role in FOIP, and how should the U.S. understand FOIP’s evolution with the present thaw between Japan and China?

In the first episode of 2020, Mike is joined by Tom Karako, Senior Fellow with the CSIS International Security Program and Director of the Missile Defense Project. Mike and Tom tackle the new hard power reality facing the Asia chessboard. What will the Indo-Pacific region look like now that the U.S. is no longer bound by the INF treaty? Mike and Tom also examine the doctrinal, strategic, and political realities of deploying intermediate-range missiles. They conclude by examining how possible U.S. missile deployments may affect the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Indo-Pacific and the prospects for future arms control agreements.

Mike is joined in this episode by Patrick Buchan, director of the U.S. Alliances Project and Fellow for Indo-Pacific security at CSIS. Buchan is also a former official with the Australian Department of Defense, Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, and the U.S. Office of the Secretary of Defense. After discussing Pat’s unique background as an Australian seconded to the U.S. government, Mike and Pat move towards discussing one of America’s Indo-Pacific allies, Australia. What are the origins of Australian grand strategy? How does Australia’s role as a “Five Eyes” ally impact its ability to affect American planning and strategy? How do both the U.S. and Australia handle areas of divergence between their interests? Finally, Mike and Pat evaluate Australia’s recent efforts to network with other “spokes” in the U.S.-led hub and spoke alliance system in the Indo-Pacific.

Amid the on-again, off-again trade deal with China and roiling protests in Hong Kong, Mike is joined by Ambassador Kurt Tong, partner at The Asia Group, former Consul General in Hong Kong and Macau, and former State Department Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs. Mike and Kurt kick off the discussion with a look at Kurt's background. They also discuss how U.S. economic policy fits into a larger grand strategy picture in Asia. The conversation ends with a reflection on Kurt's tenure as Consul General in Hong Kong looking at the protests, the recent District Council elections, and the government's response.

On July 16, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment charging Sue Mi Terry with violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The indictment alleges activities that took place, in part, during a period in which Ms. Terry was employed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS is not a party to this litigation and takes the allegations seriously. CSIS maintains strict policies to ensure full compliance with the Foreign Agents Registration Act and the intellectual independence of its scholarship. In light of these serious allegations, CSIS cannot verify the independence of the scholarship of this material containing the views of Ms. Terry and has therefore archived this content pending the resolution of the charges.

Mike is joined by Dr. Kath Hicks, Henry Kissinger Chair, Senior Vice President, and Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, for a discussion of how "gray zone" tactics factor into grand strategy in Asia. In unpacking the effect of gray zone tactics on strategy, Mike and Kath define the parameters of gray zone tactics and the domains in which they are most effective. With these assumptions in mind, what will the knock-on effects of gray zone tactics be on theories of coercion, victory, and defense planning in Asia? What parts of the U.S. government have historically been most effective at adapting to gray zone competition? Mike and Kath further discuss Kath's journey through the Department of Defense and her advice for young women hoping to become defense professionals.

In this episode, Mike interviews Steve Hadley, former national security advisor and a principal of RiceHadleyGates, a strategic consulting firm. Steve shares his journey from starting out as a young lawyer with an interest in history and strategy to the senior national security position in the White House. Mike and Steve then dive deep into the debate on U.S.-China competition. Is the Washington panic on China out of step with how the rest of the country views China? How can we best encapsulate the current state of the relationship? Are China’s domestic politics or foreign policy shapeable? Download full transcript here.

In this episode, Mike sits down with Eric Sayers, adjunct senior fellow for the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, and Zack Cooper, research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, two rising conservative Asia strategic thinkers. Building on the previous episodes on the Democrats’ Asia strategy, the three discuss the nature of the U.S. strategic competition with China, growing isolationism among some Republican thinkers, and the roles of government, values, and principles for future Republican administration’s Asia grand strategy. Download full transcript here.

In part two of host Mike Green's conversation with Kelly Magsamen and Mira Rapp-Hooper, the three focus on the likely approaches a future Democratic administration would take on trade issues, defense policy, and democratic values. What elements of the Trump-era National Defense Strategy, if any, might a future Democratic president continue in their own Asia grand strategy? The group also discusses polling from the Center for American Progress, and how young progressive grand strategists can find their footing within the Asia policy community. Download full transcript here.

In part one of a two-part discussion, Mike is joined by Kelly Magsamen, vice president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress and a former pentagon and NSC official; and Mira Rapp-Hooper, senior fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Yale Law School China center. With the Democratic presidential primary in full swing, the three discuss the history of Democratic grand strategy in Asia, noting the prevalence of both realist and institutionalist tendencies in Democratic administrations. Stay tuned for a further discussion on the importance of trade strategy, defense issues, and democratic values in a future Democratic administration’s Asia grand strategy in part two Download full transcript here.

In part two of Mike and Andrew's discussion with Kurt Campbell, the group turns to the domestic implications of the Trump administration's grand strategy in Asia. How does the Trump administration's aggressive trade policy affect American farmers crucial to Trump's voter base, and how do Trump administration trade policies fit into the larger discourses on free trade? Mike and Kurt also discuss the Trump administration's departure from long held norms in Asia grand strategy. Is the focus on browbeating allies and adversaries sustainable? Will future American administrations adopt an anything-but-Trump approach? The conversation concludes with a brief examination of President Trump's summit diplomacy with North Korea. Download the full transcript here.

In this episode, Mike and Andrew sit down with Dr. Kurt Campbell, president and CEO of The Asia Group, co-founder of the Center for a New American Security, and former assistant Secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs. In part one of a two-part discussion, Mike, Kurt, and Andrew give an inside look at the establishment of the Nye Initiative, the post-Cold War drive to restructure the U.S.-Japan alliance for the present era. They also grade the Trump and Obama administrations' records against combating strategic drift. Download the full transcript here.

In this episode, Mike sits down with Will Inboden, associate professor of public policy and director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas at Austin. Will is also a former senior NSC official for strategic planning. Mike and Will unpack popular misconceptions about the application of history to grand strategy and discuss the critical place of values in American foreign policy. They also preview Will’s forthcoming book on the Reagan administration. Download the full transcript here.

In this episode, Mike and Andrew interview a true grandmaster of the Asia chessboard: Ambassador Richard Armitage. Ambassador Armitage has seen it all, from riverine patrols with the “brown-water navy” in Vietnam to hard-fought bureaucratic battles as Deputy Secretary of State. Andrew and Mike discuss Ambassador Armitage’s background in Asia. They grade the Trump administration’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy.” Plus, they forecast possible black swans shadowing the Asia chessboard. (And Ambassador Armitage’s all-time bench press record is revealed.) Download full transcript here.

Andrew Schwartz interviews the host, Dr. Mike Green, senior vice president for Asia at CSIS, director of Asian Studies at Georgetown University, and former senior director for Asia on George W. Bush’s national security council. Andrew explores Dr. Green’s career, examining how Dr. Green originally became interested in the study of grand strategy and how he landed on Asia as his focus. Dr. Green and Andrew further consider the questions that will frame The Asia Chessboard going forward: is grand strategy possible in the United States today? How do leaders execute strategy in the midst of crises? Where is U.S. strategy towards the region heading? Download full transcript here.