The Asia Chessboard

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by C. Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi and Visiting Research Professor and former Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore. Mohan was the founding director of Carnegie India in Delhi – the sixth international center of Carnegie Endowment for Peace, and has previously served on India’s National Security Advisory Board. They begin by examining India’s strategic outlook since the end of the Cold War, considering India’s history, the evolution of its economic model, and shifts in the political perspectives and priorities of the Indian government. They then turn to India’s role in BRICS – examining the relationship of India and China within the organization, the reasoning behind India's participation in BRICS, and implications of the August 2023 BRICS summit. Next they discuss Delhi’s changing relationship with Taipei and expanding engagement with Japan and Australia. The conversation concludes with an assessment of what India wants for its strategic future, and how it would interact with the international world order.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Thomas Parks, Country Representative for Thailand with The Asia Foundation and author of the recently published book Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold War. They begin with an overview of Southeast Asia’s experience during and following the Cold War and discuss the region’s desire to avoid a re-division into blocs. They explore how regional states are seeking to preserve strategic ambiguity in their international relations and diversify their economic partnerships to avoid becoming highly dependent on any one great power. They then consider the effects a conflict in Taiwan would have on regional states’ autonomy and probable reactions if conflict were to occur, as well as regional perspectives on the prospects for major U.S.-China decoupling and associated vulnerabilities. The conservation concludes by exploring space for multipolar cooperation in the region among small and middle powers, how they have prioritized deep connections with each other, and how this in turn allows them to enter into robust security or economic relationships with major powers while also preserving the perception of autonomy in the eyes of their peers.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Mr. Choi Shing Kwok, Director & Chief Executive Officer of the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, and head of the ASEAN Studies Centre and Singapore APEC Study Centre, to discuss ASEAN perspectives on issues in the Indo-Pacific. The conversation first examines ASEAN’s current structure, organizational challenges, and the diversity of its individual members. They then discuss ASEAN’s relationships and interaction with other regional players, including Japan and Australia. Next, they turn to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s 2023 Survey Report on the State of Southeast Asia, reviewing how the region views U.S.-China tensions and the priorities of the ASEAN nations as they navigate rising U.S.-China competition. They analyze the reactions of ASEAN members to Secretary Blinken’s June trip to Beijing and discuss survey trends which suggest growing support for the United States and the Quad in Southeast Asia. They conclude by considering how U.S. policy could be best designed to improve levels of trust among ASEAN member publics.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Professor Peter Dean, Director of Foreign Policy and Defense at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, and the principal drafter of the Australian government’s recent Defence Strategic Review, to discuss developments in Australia’s defense planning. The conversation begins with a discussion of the Defence Strategic Review and the significant shift in Australia's strategic outlook that it represents. Next, Mike, Jude and Peter discuss how the perceived sustainability of U.S. engagement in the region factors into Australian defense planning. They examine developments in Chinese military capabilities that Canberra is watching closely, and what responses might be demanded. They then consider the complications of executing a cultural transformation in Australia’s defense forces and building national resilience. After turning briefly to Australia’s relationship with Taiwan and potential reactions to a contingency in and around the Taiwan Strait, they conclude with a discussion of the evolving U.S.-Australia alliance and how its further development can underpin stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Dr. Susan Shirk, Founding Chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego and the author of Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise (Oxford University Press, 2022), which examines the evolution of China’s domestic and foreign policy over the last 15 years. The conversation begins by examining steps taken toward political decentralization and economic liberalization under Hu Jintao—and the reversal of these trends under Xi Jinping. Next, they discuss Xi’s governance style and the shortcomings of loyalty-based political systems. The discussion then turns to the recent G7 summit in Hiroshima and China’s reaction to its outcomes. After assessing U.S. China policy during the Trump and Biden administrations, they then consider how Xi might respond to renewed diplomatic overtures. After a discussion of the risks of U.S. overreaction to Beijing’s policies, they conclude with reflections on what—if any—actions can be taken to stabilize the deteriorating U.S.-China relationship.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Scott Morrison, former Australian Prime Minister and leader of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party from 2018-2022. The conversation begins by assessing developments in China-Australia relations during Morrison’s time in office, delving into the various equities at play and domestic debates that unfolded as the government reevaluated the links between economics and national security and moved to a tougher approach on China. They then discuss Australia’s experience with Chinese economic coercion, and the importance of finding alignment between partners to build resilience to Chinese pressure. Next, they reflect on the growing strategic importance of the Quad, AUKUS, and Australia’s relationship with India. They wrap up with a discussion of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, assessing effective elements and identifying where U.S. policy needs to be improved.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Paul Haenle, Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair of Carnegie China and former China director for the National Security Council staffs of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and Faryar Shirzad, who served in the Bush administration with Paul as deputy national security advisor for International Economic affairs and is now Chief Policy Office at Coinbase. They begin by recapping economic and security ties between the United States and China at the outset of the Bush administration in 2001, discussing the administration’s China policy and the legacy of its approach to Asia more broadly. The conversation turns to the broader implications of trends in U.S.-China economic relations, which are increasingly characterized by heightened government controls and expectations of national loyalty among multinational firms. Next, they emphasize the importance of placing the U.S.-China relationship on better footing and improving communication. They observe how the Bush administration’s efforts to shape the geopolitical environment around China have borne out today and conclude with a call for renewed U.S. pursuit of economic diplomacy. Throughout the conversation, they discuss Hand-Off, a collection of once-classified memos that the Bush administration passed to the incoming Obama administration to support a smooth transition for U.S. foreign policy.

On July 16, 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment charging Sue Mi Terry with violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act. The indictment alleges activities that took place, in part, during a period in which Ms. Terry was employed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS is not a party to this litigation and takes the allegations seriously. CSIS maintains strict policies to ensure full compliance with the Foreign Agents Registration Act and the intellectual independence of its scholarship. In light of these serious allegations, CSIS cannot verify the independence of the scholarship of this material containing the views of Ms. Terry and has therefore archived this content pending the resolution of the charges.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Kurt M. Campbell, Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs in the National Security Council, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, Senior Adviser on China at the U.S. Department of State's Policy Planning Staff. They begin by discussing educational and professional experiences that build the groundwork for successful careers in international relations. They then discuss the recent one-year anniversary of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, noting that the approach reflects the recognition of “a new strategic era” in the region. They underline the Strategy’s focus on alliances and emphasize the importance of promoting broader regional engagement and shared interests beyond the framework of competition with China. Next, they discuss the implications of China’s evolving diplomatic approach towards the United States and regional partners. They conclude the conversation by exploring recent narratives of China’s overreach, and how U.S. strategy might react to a course correction in Beijing that would present China as a stronger, more reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Emily Kilcrease, director of the Energy, Economics, and Security program at CNAS, who formerly served as deputy assistant U.S. trade representative and National Security Council director for international trade, investment, and development. They begin by examining the limits of U.S. leverage over semiconductor supply chains and how existing advantages are maintained by the continual innovation and investment of U.S. industry. They then discuss the U.S. government’s capacity to use semiconductor manufacturing chokepoints to slow China’s technological development and the recent expansion of U.S. export controls relating to sensitive high-end technologies. Next, they considered the broader effects of U.S. technology export policies and the need for the United States to adopt a multilateral approach that protects the high-tech industries of allies. They conclude the conversation by considering what form China’s response—and potential retaliation—to the new export controls might take.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Christopher B. Johnstone, former National Security Council director for Asia under President Biden and director for Japan and Oceanian affairs under President Obama who now serves as senior adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). They begin with a look at what Japan’s new national security strategy means for its role in the region and the U.S.-Japan alliance. Next, they turn to China-Japan relations, examining how Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration is navigating declining Japanese public sentiment toward his country’s largest trading partner. They then discuss how conversations in Tokyo are unfolding about what type of role Japan might play in a potential conflict in and around Taiwan. The conversation concludes by examining how crisis management and crisis communications mechanisms between Taiwan, Japan, and China are evolving.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Bilahari Kausikan, Chairman of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, and former Ambassador-at-Large and former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore. They start off the discussion with a look into Singapore’s history and how it has shaped its foreign policy outlook. Next, they discuss the effectiveness of ASEAN in maintaining balance of power in Southeast Asia. They then discuss China’s foreign policy trajectory, Southeast Asia’s position amidst heightened U.S.-China competition, and the performances of other Southeast Asian partnerships. Finally, they wrap up the discussion with a conversation on the future of the Sino-Russian relationship.

This week, Mike and Jude sit down with Pete Connolly, a retired officer in the Australian Defence Force and Adjunct Fellow with the Asia Program at CSIS, to discuss Chinese statecraft in the Pacific Islands. They start by unpacking China’s strategic interests in Melanesia and the Pacific Islands more broadly, and what its involvement in the region means for the U.S., Australia, and other allies and partners. Next, they dive into the military implications of increasing Chinese activity in the region. They then unpack allied interests in the Pacific Islands and local perceptions of China, the U.S., and Australia.

In this episode of the Asia Chessboard, Mike and Jude are joined by Dr. Gorana Grgic, a jointly appointed Senior Lecturer at the Department of Government and International Relations and the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, to discuss the recently released U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Strategy (NDS). They start off the discussion by highlighting the key takeaways, and what was missing, from the National Security Strategy. They then discuss how U.S. priorities and resource allocations are reflected in the NSS, and what these signal for U.S. allies. To close out the discussion, they discuss how the National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy fit together to create a broader picture of U.S. strategic priorities.

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), to take a deep look into India’s evolving partnerships and its position in the global system. They start by discussing India’s role in the Quad and how it has shifted in recent years. They then unpack India’s broader cooperative efforts within the Indo-Pacific. Finally, they assess the impact of the war in Ukraine on the India-Russia relationship, and what public perception of the war has been in India.

This week, Mike and Jude sit down with Bates Gill, Head of the Department of Security Studies and Criminology at Macquarie University, to discuss his recent book, Daring to Struggle: China's Global Ambitions Under Xi Jinping. They begin by discussing Gill’s career trajectory and key themes that emerge from the book. They then dive deeper into China’s trajectory under Xi Jinping’s leadership, focusing on Xi’s risk tolerance and China’s near-term ambitions. Finally, they outline near-term actions the U.S. and its allies could take to bolster strategic deterrence against China.

This week, Mike welcomes new co-host, Jude Blanchette, Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, to interview Mike on the strategic and political legacy of Shinzo Abe, following the assassination of the former Japanese Prime Minister on July 8. The two start by discussing how Abe’s personal background and the geopolitical climate in Japan impacted Abe’s political career, his influence on Japan’s foreign policy by the end of his term in 2020, and the evolution of domestic and international perception of Abe as a leader. They then unpack Abe’s impact on Japan-China relations and U.S.-Japan relations, and how he successfully lead Japan to productive cooperation with both major powers. They wrap up the discussion by assessing the long-term impact of Shinzo Abe on Japan’s foreign policy, and the lasting policies and partnerships that will carry Japan forward over the coming years.

This week, Mike is joined by Wendy Cutler, Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute, to unpack President Biden’s economic strategy towards the Indo-Pacific and his May 2022 trip to Asia. The two discuss the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and regional reactions to its various pillars and incentives, prospects for a digital trade agreement, and China’s bid to join CPTPP. How can the United States engage with allies and partners in the region to promote fair trade, supply chain resiliency, and other rules and norms?

This week, Mike sits down with Major General Arnold L. Punaro (USMC ret.), Chief Executive Officer of the Punaro Group, to discuss his new book, The Ever-Shrinking Fighting Force, which covers the history of U.S. defense spending and why the number of warfighters is declining despite budget increases. Mike and Maj. Gen. Punaro start off by analyzing the defense budget process and lay out three reasons why the U.S. military is not getting “enough bang for its buck,” to include the acquisition process, the cost of an all-volunteer force, and a massive overhead. Drawing from his experience working in Congress, Maj. Gen. Punaro dives deeper into the politics of defense spending and its impact on the Indo-Pacific region. Lastly, the two touch on the war in Ukraine and constraints on U.S. capacity to operate on multiple fronts.

This week, Mike is joined by General Charles Flynn, Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific, to discuss the role of the Army in the Indo-Pacific. They touch on the history of the Army’s engagement in the region, the foundational capabilities of U.S. Army Pacific, and threats to the regional security environment. General Flynn details his efforts to coordinate and build trust between the U.S. Army and allies and partners in the region, including Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

This week, CSIS Korea Chair Victor Cha returns as a guest on the Asia Chessboard to analyze the most recent South Korean presidential election and how it has impacted the geopolitics of the Korean peninsula. Mike and Victor discuss president-elect Yoon’s foreign and domestic policy agenda, political mandate, and views on various bilateral relationships including with the United States, China, and Japan. How will Yoon’s “security first” position dictate his foreign policy, especially concerning China and North Korea? Will he be able to work with President Biden and Prime Minister Kishida on strengthening economic and security cooperation?

This week, Andrew Schwartz guest hosts the Asia Chessboard to discuss Michael Green’s new book, “Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Shinzo Abe.” Andrew asks Mike about the origins of the book and how former Prime Minister Abe changed Japan’s strategic trajectory during his tenure. The two also discuss the U.S.-Japan alliance, President Biden’s approach to Japan, and current events in the region concerning Ukraine, Taiwan, and South Korea. Note: this conversation was recorded on March 17th, 2022.

This week, Mike discusses the dynamic geopolitics of the Pacific Islands with Georgetown University Professor Patricia O’Brien. Mike and Patty explore the post-World War II history of this complex region, analyze recent political trends in key countries such as Samoa, the Solomon Islands, and Fiji, and explain how the Pacific Islands fit in with overall U.S. strategy in Asia. The two also touch on how U.S.-China competition impacts the region and the Biden Administration’s efforts to renegotiate the Compacts of Free Association (COFA) between the United States, Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the Federated States of Micronesia (Micronesia), and the Republic of Palau (Palau).

This week, Mike is joined by the inaugural Australia Chair at CSIS, Dr. Charles Edel. The two start with an important discussion on the intersection of history and strategy, the strategic mind of John Quincy Adams, and the need for an Australia Chair in Washington as Australian influence on U.S. decisionmaking becomes more significant. Mike and Charles also assess the Biden administration’s new Indo-Pacific strategy, Australia’s role in increasing multilateral cooperation in the region, including within AUKUS and the Quad, and Australia’s deepening relationship with Japan.

This week, Mike is joined by Carolyn Bartholomew and Robin Cleveland, Chair and Vice Chair of the 2021 Annual Report Cycle for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Mike, Carolyn, and Robin discuss the history and mandate of the commission, the process behind drafting the 2021 report, and topline findings and recommendations. Topics include concerns about Chinese nuclear capabilities, investment risks, funding for INDOPACOM, U.S. presence in the region, and Chinese influence in Latin America.

This week, Mike is joined by Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), to discuss his new book, The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry Today. Mike and Hal analyze the merits of applied history and how the Cold War is an appropriate lens through which to gain insights about current U.S.-China long-term competition. How can lessons from the Cold War inform current U.S. strategy? Is the United State prepared for long-term competition? What is the U.S. theory of victory?

This week, Dr. Green is joined by Dr. Yoichi Funabashi, chairman of the Tokyo-based think tank Asia Pacific Initiative, to discuss geopolitical and economic trends in the Indo-Pacific and Japanese grand strategy. Dr. Funabashi talks about the evolution of Japan’s foreign policy strategy, from the Abe administration to the new Kishida administration, as well as the role of the U.S.-Japan alliance in Japan’s strategic thinking. The two also touch on Japan’s relationship with South Korea, economic security, and Japan’s prospects for acquiring strike capabilities.

This week, Mike unpacks recent developments in the U.S.-Australia alliance, including the AUKUS agreement, with Rory Medcalf, professor and head of the National Security College at Australia National University. The two discuss the second edition to Rory’s book, Indo-Pacific Empire: China, America and the contest for the world's pivotal region, and how regional dynamics and geopolitics have changed over the past two years. What were the conditions that lead to the AUKUS agreement, and what is its strategic significance in the context of U.S.-China competition? What are the major “hotspots” in the Indo-Pacific that the United States and Australia should be concerned about?

For the 50th episode of the Asia Chessboard, Mike is joined by David Berteau, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Logistics and Material Readiness, to discuss the intersection of strategy and logistics in the Indo-Pacific. How do we get U.S. forces into the region, and once they are there, how do we sustain them? How should the U.S. incorporate allies and partners into logistics planning? How do logistics impact U.S. extended deterrence? These questions of how to implement U.S. Asia strategy are important to consider given the current security environment and China challenge.

Ahead of the 50th episode of the Asia Chessboard, we thought we would take a look back at some of our favorite conversations with key players from the past two and a half years. The first conversation is with Ambassador Richard Armitage, in which he and Mike grade the U.S., Japanese, and Chinese grand strategies in Asia. The second conversation features a discussion with Ambassador Kurt Tong on how the United States can rebuild its trade strategy in Asia. The last conversation is from our episode with Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Jack Reed on the bipartisan nature of U.S. Asia strategy and the Pacific Deterrence Initiative.

This week, Mike discusses the nuclear pieces on the Asia Chessboard with Caitlin Talmadge, professor at Georgetown University, as they explore the multipolar nuclear deterrence environment in the Indo-Pacific region. Mike and Caitlin analyze U.S. and Chinese nuclear capabilities, including China’s recent military build-up, the potential for nuclear arms races in the region, and the relationship between nuclear and conventional forces. They also touch on the debate surrounding a “no first use” nuclear policy and the upcoming U.S. nuclear posture review.

This week, Mike is celebrating 70 years of U.S.-Australia relations with Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The two discuss the history and evolution of the ANZUS treaty and how alliance dynamics play out in both Washington and Canberra. They also contemplate the future of the alliance, including deepened U.S.-Australia security cooperation, the role of New Zealand in the alliance, Australian military capabilities, and trilateral cooperation with Japan.

This week, Mike is back in the studio with Heino Klinck, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, to unpack the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy and how it relates to U.S. allies and partners. Heino and Mike begin by exploring Chinese strategy towards the U.S. alliance network in Asia. They then discuss how U.S. allies and partners like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia should think about their roles, missions, and capabilities in response to Chinese aggressive behavior in the region.

This week, Mike sits down with Raden Mohammad Marty Muliana Natalegawa, former Foreign Minister of Indonesia, to explore current U.S.-Indonesia relations and U.S. foreign policy towards Southeast Asia. The two discuss Marty's time in government, and how the bilateral relationship should deal with issues like Myanmar, Covid-19, Chinese assertiveness, and climate change. Mike and Marty also talk about the importance of collaboration on democracy support in the region, and touch on the current situation in Afghanistan.

This week, Mike is joined by Ambassador James Moriarty, chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, to discuss his perspectives on political and security dynamics in the Taiwan Strait. Ambassador Moriarty considers how U.S. policy towards Taiwan has changed over his professional career, and examines Beijing’s intentions towards Taiwan. Finally, Mike and Ambassador Moriarty debate what Washington, Taipei, Tokyo and others need to do to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing the need for increased deterrence and defense in depth.

This week, Mike sits down with Bonny Lin, senior fellow for Asian security and the new director of the China Power Project at CSIS, to talk about one of the hottest topics on the Chessboard: the Taiwan Strait. Bonny and Mike assess if China and Taiwan are truly on the brink of war and dive into China's overall strategy towards Taiwan, including gray zone coercion and disinformation campaigns. They also discuss what U.S. commitment to Taiwan's security means for the region, and how U.S. allies in Asia and Europe fit into U.S. and Chinese strategic planning regarding the Taiwan Strait.

This week, Mike sits down with Amitav Acharya, UNESCO Chair in Transnational Challenges and Governance and Distinguished Professor at American University, to unpack Amitav’s new book, ASEAN and Regional Order: Revisiting Security Community in Southeast Asia. Amitav and Mike assess the current state of ASEAN, its durability, and the meaning of ASEAN centrality. They also discuss the role of the QUAD, the impact of U.S.-China competition on Southeast Asia, and how the U.S. can improve its engagement with Southeast Asia.

This week, Mike is joined by Darshana Baruah, associate fellow with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss the strategic significance of the Indian Ocean to the United States and our allies and partners in the region. Darshana provides historical context for the new focus on the Indo-Pacific, and dives into the politics of the Indian Ocean region. Mike and Darshana also tackle the rise of Chinese influence and how the Indian Ocean fits in with U.S.-China strategic competition. Overall, the two agree that there needs to be more focus in the United States on building a presence in the Indian Ocean, and in dealing with the Indian Ocean as a whole, rather than dividing it into geographical silos.

This week, Mike is joined by Mike O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director of research in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, to discuss his new book, “The Art of War in an Age of Peace,” and how his new vision for U.S. grand strategy relates to the Asia-Pacific. The two begin by defining what “resolute restraint” means for U.S. Asia policy, especially regarding the rise of China, as they explore issue areas like the South China Sea. O’Hanlon makes a distinction between restraint and retrenchment, and argues for prioritizing existing commitments in Asia to our treaty allies, rather than creating new security obligations.

This week, Mike is joined by Eva Pejsova, Senior Japan Fellow at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) at Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), and Luis Simon, Director of the CSDS at the Brussels School of Governance and Director of the Brussels Office of the Elcano Royal Institute, to discuss how the Indo-Pacific factors into European foreign policy and strategic thinking. Eva and Luis analyze the recently released "EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific," as well as the individual strategies of France, Germany, and the Netherlands, and argue that Europe cannot address the rise of China without considering the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region. The three then dive deeper into potential cooperation between the EU, U.S., and other partners in the region like Japan, Australia, and India.

This week, Mike is joined by Elizabeth Economy, senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and senior fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, to explore the evolution of Xi Jinping’s leadership and China’s current foreign policy strategy. Liz argues that there is continuity between Xi’s strategy and that of his predecessors, but Xi’s vision of reforming the global governance system and his increased risk tolerance are new phenomena. As Liz and Mike unravel China’s foreign policy and its relationship with Russia, they ask if the United States could have predicted the rise of Xi Jinping and if the United States should change course in its strategy towards China.

This week, Mike is joined by Ashley Tellis, Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to re-evaluate U.S. China strategy and determine what makes a successful theory of victory. The two start by going back in time to when Ashley was working on the rise of China in the 90s, when he argued that China’s rise was not a fluke and would impact Asia dramatically in the future. Given that competition is inevitable, the United States must maintain multipolarity in Asia, create constraints on Chinese action in the region, and work with likeminded allies and partners like Japan and India. How can the United States integrate India and the QUAD into its strategy? What does success look like in five years, ten years, and beyond?

This week Mike is joined by Mireya Solis, director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies, Philip Knight Chair in Japan Studies, and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, to discuss the regional trade architecture of the Asia-Pacific. The two start off by analyzing the geopolitical significance of RCEP and CPTPP, and what the lack of U.S. participation in both trade agreements means for U.S. trade strategy under the Biden Administration. Mireya also dives deeper into Japan’s economic strategy in Asia, and argues that Japanese leadership in the region is likely to continue given its status as the third largest economy in the world, its role as a rule-maker in the region, and its ability to fill the U.S. vacuum. How have the Asia-Pacific countries stitched the region together over the past few years, and what can the U.S. do to improve its credibility in the region?

This week, Mike is joined by Asia and human rights expert Ellen Bork, contributing editor at American Purpose, to discuss the geopolitics of Tibet and what it means for the Asia Chessboard. The two begin by discussing Tibet’s strategic significance in the region, including the influence of Tibetan Buddhism and China’s strategic approach to its “core interests.” Bork also dives deeper into Tibet’s relationships with its neighbors, like India, and the transnational impact of the next reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. How should the U.S. factor Tibet into its Asia Strategy? How can the U.S. and its allies stand up to China when it comes to human rights abuses in Tibet?

This week Mike is joined by Bruce Stokes, fellow at the German Marshall Fund, to discuss U.S. public attitudes about the world, and how the world sees the U.S. leadership role abroad, especially after January 6th. Stokes differentiates between public opinion about the United States, faith in the U.S. public, and faith in U.S ideas about democracy. How does waning U.S. soft power impact our strategy in Asia? How can the incoming administration implement a “Foreign Policy for the Middle Class” while dealing with trade and security issues in Asia?

This week, Mike is joined by David Shambaugh, the Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies at George Washington University, to discuss his new book, “Where Great Powers Meet: America and China in Southeast Asia.” The two start with a discussion about how U.S.-China relations have gotten to their lowest point since normalization, and how Southeast Asia has become an open field for competition. Perception matters, but Shambaugh argues that it has become out of touch with reality. Is China’s inevitable rise in the region a false narrative? Why is U.S. engagement in Southeast Asia underappreciated, and how can we increase U.S. diplomatic efforts in the region?

This week, Mike is joined by Ganbat Chuluunkhuu, Managing Director at RVJ Capital, as they journey to the middle of the chessboard to discuss Mongolia’s role in the Asia-Pacific region. Ganbat dives into Mongolia’s history of strategic culture, starting with the legacy of Genghis Khan, and outlines the intricacies of Mongolia’s relationships with China, Russia, and “third neighbors” like the United States. As the only democracy in Central Eurasia, Mongolia has becoming increasingly important for U.S. grand strategy and Mongolian sovereignty rests on the balance between China, Russia, and its third neighbors.

This week, Mike is joined by Tom Wright, director of the Center on the United States and Europe and a senior fellow in the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, to discuss how domestic politics impacts U.S. grand strategy. The two go into detail about how both Democrats and Republicans currently view U.S. strategy in Asia, and where both parties converge and diverge when it comes to the “China Challenge.” Now that there will be a transfer of power in the White House, what does the recent 2020 U.S. election tell us about the U.S. role in the world, and in Asia specifically?

This week, Mike is joined by his CSIS colleagues Jude Blanchette, Bonnie Glaser, and Scott Kennedy, to discuss their recently-launched project, “Mapping the Future of U.S. China Policy.” For this project, CSIS surveyed the American public and thought leaders in the United States, Asia, and Europe to map perspectives on China policy. The discussion centers around the project’s five main takeaways on issues surrounding national security, economics and trade, and human rights. The results point to possible contours of an enduring strategy around international coalition building on the China challenge.

This week, Mike is joined by Chris Capozzola, Professor of History at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to discuss his new book on the history of U.S.-Philippines relations, Bound by War. The two discuss the importance of history for informing grand strategy, and what lessons we can learn from the 1900s, which Dr. Capozzola argues is the "original" Asian century. Dr. Capozzola starts with the strategic significance of the United States and the Philippines to one another, highlighting the geographic location of the Philippines. He goes on to explain the binational history between the two countries and how they have shaped one another. What are the strengths and weaknesses within the relationship, and how can understanding history help the United States build a platform for more strategic dialogue with the Philippines moving forward?