State of Play

President Trump delayed his planned summit with Xi Jinping from March to May due to the war with Iran. Scott Kennedy and Brian Hart join Will to assess the war's impact on the talks, if the war has changed China's negotiating strategy, and if we should expect a different outcome from the May summit as a result of the delay. Scott Kennedy, "The United States Needs a Coherent China Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Bonny Lin, "Why a Venezuela-Style Operation Would Backfire for Beijing," CSIS, January 9, 2026.

Beyond increasing gas prices, the war with Iran has had significant ripple effects for food security, economic security, and humanitarian crises in the Middle East and beyond. Emily Harding, Caitlin Welsh, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will to discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war that are getting less attention, and what can be done to mitigate their worst effects. Emily Harding, "Data Is Now the Front Line of Warfare," CSIS, March 19, 2026 David Michel, "Could Iran Disrupt the Gulf Countries’ Desalinated Water Supplies?" CSIS, March 19, 2026. Mona Yacoubian, "Iran’s War Strategy: Don’t Calibrate—Escalate," CSIS, March 16, 2026. Emma Curtis, Joely Virzi, and Caitlin Welsh, "Chokepoint: How the War with Iran Threatens Global Food Security," CSIS, March 11, 2026.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was the first U.S. ally to visit President Trump in the White House after he called on allies to help with the war on Iran. Nick Szechenyi joins Will to discuss what Takaichi had hoped to achieve in her visit, how she handled Trump's pressure, and the playbook she's developing for U.S. allies. Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano, "What Are the Implications of the Iran Conflict for Japan?" CSIS, March 20, 2026. "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens U.S.-Japan Alliance for the Benefit of All Americans," The White House, March 19, 2026.

As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week, U.S. attention is focused on the Middle East once again. Both China and Russia may find strategic openings, from higher global energy prices that bolster Moscow’s war economy to new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence elsewhere. But the conflict also carries costs for both. Instability threatens critical energy supplies to China, while the conflict is prompting the further degradation of a key Russian partner in the Middle East. On balance, are Russia and China gaining or losing more from the war with Iran? The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a live episode of State of Play to explore the implications of the war with Iran for China and Russia on Monday 16 March at 4:00pm. The discussion will feature Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman. This event is made possible through general support to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

President Trump said the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and “it may not be a friendly takeover.” Ryan Berg and Carrie Filipetti join Will to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News,” U.S. Department of State, February 14, 2026. Ryan Berg et al. “China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security,” CSIS, December 6, 2024.

To discuss the risks of regime change in Iran, the lessons to draw from other regime change efforts in the Middle East and beyond, and to outline what the United States can do now to ensure a positive outcome in Iran, Jon Alterman, Daniel Byman, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will Todman on a live episode of State of Play. Jon Alterman, "Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Problem," CSIS, March 3, 2026. Daniel Byman, "6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury," Foreign Policy, February 28, 2026. Mona Yacoubian and Samuel Zabin, "If Compute is the New Oil, War in the Gulf Significantly Raises the Stakes," CSIS, February 27, 2026.

President Trump's economic strategy in SE Asia faces new questions after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how SE Asian states are engaging with the Trump administration and navigating U.S.-China competition in the region. Japhet Quitzon and Greg Poling, "Lessons from the Manila Strategy Forum," CSIS, February 25, 2026. Henrietta Levin, Greg Poling, et al. "State of Play: The Global Impact of the SCOTUS Decision on IEEPA Tariffs," CSIS, February 20, 2026. Henrietta Levin, "The U.S.-Vietnam Trade Deal Makes No Sense" Foreign Policy, July 16, 2025.

Max Bergmann shares his key observations about transatlantic relations after attending the Munich Security Conference. He discusses how European leaders reacted to Secretary Rubio’s speech, the U.S. strategy for Europe, and the ongoing challenges of shifting the defense burden from the United States to Europe. Max Bergmann, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (video) CSIS, November 5, 2025. Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (report) CSIS, October 8, 2025.

Technological advances are not just about economics, but also power and leverage. Mark Dallas and Ilaria Mazzocco join Will to explore the geopolitical aspect of tech competition. They discuss each state's key technological advantages, what geopolitical power they bring them, and how the United States should compete better. "Tech Edge: A Living Playbook for America’s Technology Long Game," CSIS, January 20, 2026. "America's Technology Long Game for Competing with China," CSIS Events, January 28, 2026.

Nick Szechenyi joins Will to analyze the geopolitical consequences of Sanae Takaichi's resounding victory in the February 8 Japanese general elections. They discuss what the prime minister's historic supermajority in the lower house of parliament means for Japan's defense spending, tensions with China, ties with the United States, and Takaichi's broader strategy. Yuko Nakano and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Takaichi Dominates Japan’s Lower House Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026. Kristi Govella, Charles McClean, and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Inside Japan’s High-Stakes Snap Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026.

At Davos, the Canadian prime minister argued that the rules based system is fading and middle powers must work together to build a new world order. Chris Hernandez-Roy and Kristi Govella join Will to discuss whether or not key U.S. allies like Canada and Japan could do this, what it might look like, and what the risks are. Mark Carney, "Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada," January 20, 2026. Kristi Govella, "Japan’s Response to Trump 2.0: Sustaining U.S. Ties, Strengthening International Partnerships," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Juliana Rubio, Jessie Hu, and Sam Smith, "President Trump’s Latin America Policy: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Risks," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

In a special live episode to mark the launch of a new book on China's weaponization of trade, Will sits down with its main author Dr. Victor Cha and panelists Bethany Allen and Dr. Melanie Hart. They discuss how China's economic strategy is evolving, how it compares with President Trump's own form of economic coercion, and what states and firms can do to push back. Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and Andy Lim, "China's Weaponization of Trade: Resistance Through Collective Resilience" (Columbia University Press), January 2026. Victor Cha, "How to Stop Chinese Coercion," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2023. Watch video of the discussion.

After a momentous year of geopolitical shifts, 12 CSIS experts join Will to share what they consider the most significant developments in different parts of the world in 2025. They also share their predictions for what they expect to happen across the world in the year ahead. "Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026," CSIS, January 14, 2026.

Nicolas Maduro was a key ally of the so-called CRINK countries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) in Latin America. But President Trump’s actions in Venezuela seemingly support an attempt to alter the balance of power in the Western Hemisphere. The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a special episode of State of Play on the lessons these states are learning from Maduro’s capture and what it means for their interests going forward. The discussion will feature Dr. Ryan Berg, Henrietta Levin, Dr. Vali Nasr, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman.

2025 was a transformative year for geopolitics. Victor Cha and the Brookings Institution's Dr. Tom Wright join Will to discuss how the United States' global strategy changed, how its allies and adversaries are responding, and what to watch for in the year ahead. Thomas Wright, "A Strategy That Ignores the Real Threats," The Atlantic, December 8, 2025. Victor Cha (ed.), "Navigating Disruption: Ally and Partner Responses to U.S. Foreign Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

After a flurry of diplomacy on Ukraine and the release of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya join Will to discuss what we should expect from ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine and how the growing crisis in transatlantic relations might shape the contours of a deal. Max Bergmann, "The NSS That Could Destroy the NATO Alliance," CSIS, December 5, 2025. Mark F Cancian and Maria Snegovaya, "The Unfinished Plan for Peace in Ukraine: Provision by Provision," CSIS, November 24, 2025.

The visits of the Saudi crown price and the Syrian president to the White House resulted in large investment deals and new defense announcements. Mona Yacoubian and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney join Will to discuss how successful the visits really were, what failed to materialize, and what surprises emerged. Michael Ratney, “A Crown Prince with a New Set of Priorities,” New York Times, November 17, 2025. Mona Yacoubian and Michael Ratney, “MBS in Washington: What’s Next for U.S.-Saudi Relations?” CSIS, November 6, 2025.

President Trump has staked much of his economic and foreign policy agendas on his expansive use of tariffs. Navin Girishankar and Phil Luck join Will to discuss what they are intended to achieve, their economic effects, and the geopolitical shifts they are precipitating. Philip Luck, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Duc Minh Nguyet (Moon) Nguyen, "When a Trade War Becomes a Food Fight," CSIS, October 21, 2025. Navin Girishankar, "Fighting a Trade War Could Mean Losing the Tech War," CSIS, March 28, 2025.

After a whirlwind trip through Asia, President Trump touted big economic deals, a peace treaty, and a successful meeting with Xi Jinping. Victor Cha and Brian Hart join Will to discuss if the trip met expectations, what surprises emerged, and what it means for the future of U.S.-China relations.

As Southeast Asian leaders prepare to discuss regional security and economic cooperation at the ASEAN Summit, President Trump's potential presence raises questions about the future of U.S. engagement in the region. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join guest host Catherine Nzuki to assess what’s at stake for Southeast Asia and whether U.S.–China tensions will overshadow the summit. Gregory Poling, "Southeast Asia Navigates Trump’s Return: Quick Deals, Lasting Dread," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Henrietta Levin, "A Big Deal Can Only Favor China," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

After nearly two years of conflict in Gaza, Caitlin Welsh and Mona Yacoubian join Will to discuss whether the war has prompted an irreversible break in the effectiveness of international institutions or if signs of reform are emerging.

Mark Cancian and Ryan Berg join Will to discuss what the U.S. military buildup in the southern Caribbean tells us about changing U.S. priorities, its implications for Venezuela and the wider region, and if U.S. pressure is likely to achieve its aims. · Mark Cancian and Chris Park, "Going to War with the Cartels: The Military Implications," CSIS, September 8, 2025. · Ryan Berg and Eric Farnsworth, "Deploying U.S. Vessels to the Caribbean Is a Show of Force," Foreign Policy, September 4, 2025.

President Xi and Prime Minister Modi greeted each other warmly at the SCO summit in China last weekend. Rick Rossow and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how real the China-India rapprochement is, if it’s really because of President Trump’s tariffs, and what it means for the United States.

After a busy month of U.S. diplomacy, Victor Cha and Max Bergmann join Will to discuss what East Asian and European allies are learning about summits with President Trump and what patterns are emerging about how President Trump engages with autocrats. "Statesmen’s Forum: His Excellency Lee Jae Myung, President of the Republic of Korea" CSIS, August 25, 2025. "Max and Maria on the Alaska and White House Peace Summits" Russian Roulette, CSIS, August 21, 2025.

This week, Kristi Govella and Nick Szechenyi join Will to discuss if U.S.-Japan relations are shifting in a fundamental way after tariff negotiations, pressure on defense spending, and turbulent Japanese politics. Kristi Govella, "What the LDP-Komeito Defeat Means for Japanese Foreign Policy," The Diplomat, July 31, 2025. Nicholas Szechenyi, Yuko Nakano, and Kristi Govella, "Japan’s Upper House Election: Prolonged Instability," CSIS, July 21, 2025.

The Trump administration is placing pressure on allies in the Indo-Pacific, from tariffs and aid cuts to efforts to increase defense spending. Charles Edel and Greg Poling join Will to discuss if the United States' economic and security strategies are working, how allies are responding, and what this means for China's standing in the region. Charles Edel, Kathryn Paik, and John Auge, "Shifting Tides: The National Security Implications of the United States’ Pacific Drawdown," CSIS, July 22, 2025. Gregory Poling, "Building Bridges, Countering Rivals: Strengthening U.S.-ASEAN Ties to Combat Chinese Influence," Congressional Testimony, June 10, 2025.

After President Xi skipped the BRICS summit in Brazil, Ryan Berg and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss if BRICS still matters, if it's part of China’s alternative world order, and other ways China is competing with the U.S. in Latin America and beyond.

This week, Will talks with Mona Yacoubian and Max Bergmann about the consequences of the war between Israel and Iran. They discuss President Trump's negotiating strategy, the lessons other states are taking from the war, and what it reveals about the changing global order. Mona Yacoubian, "How Will Iran and the Middle East Respond to U.S. Strikes?" CSIS, June 23, 2025. Max Bergmann, "America Blew its Unipolar Moment," Foreign Policy, May 26, 2025.

This week, Will talks with Victor Cha and Max Bergmann about what to expect from the G7 Summit in Canada. They discuss what makes this meeting so unusual, what on the agenda is most important, and what needs to change to make the G7 relevant in the new geopolitical environment.

The world order has been disrupted, and a new international system is emerging. Hosted by Will Todman, State of Play unpacks the biggest geopolitical developments of the week. Every episode brings together CSIS’s leading regional experts to explore how global power is shifting, how allies and adversaries are responding, and what it all means for the future of international order. State of Play is produced by Cera Baker.