State of Play

President Trump delayed his planned summit with Xi Jinping from March to May due to the war with Iran. Scott Kennedy and Brian Hart join Will to assess the war's impact on the talks, if the war has changed China's negotiating strategy, and if we should expect a different outcome from the May summit as a result of the delay. Scott Kennedy, "The United States Needs a Coherent China Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Bonny Lin, "Why a Venezuela-Style Operation Would Backfire for Beijing," CSIS, January 9, 2026.

Beyond increasing gas prices, the war with Iran has had significant ripple effects for food security, economic security, and humanitarian crises in the Middle East and beyond. Emily Harding, Caitlin Welsh, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will to discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war that are getting less attention, and what can be done to mitigate their worst effects. Emily Harding, "Data Is Now the Front Line of Warfare," CSIS, March 19, 2026 David Michel, "Could Iran Disrupt the Gulf Countries’ Desalinated Water Supplies?" CSIS, March 19, 2026. Mona Yacoubian, "Iran’s War Strategy: Don’t Calibrate—Escalate," CSIS, March 16, 2026. Emma Curtis, Joely Virzi, and Caitlin Welsh, "Chokepoint: How the War with Iran Threatens Global Food Security," CSIS, March 11, 2026.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was the first U.S. ally to visit President Trump in the White House after he called on allies to help with the war on Iran. Nick Szechenyi joins Will to discuss what Takaichi had hoped to achieve in her visit, how she handled Trump's pressure, and the playbook she's developing for U.S. allies. Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano, "What Are the Implications of the Iran Conflict for Japan?" CSIS, March 20, 2026. "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens U.S.-Japan Alliance for the Benefit of All Americans," The White House, March 19, 2026.

As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week, U.S. attention is focused on the Middle East once again. Both China and Russia may find strategic openings, from higher global energy prices that bolster Moscow’s war economy to new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence elsewhere. But the conflict also carries costs for both. Instability threatens critical energy supplies to China, while the conflict is prompting the further degradation of a key Russian partner in the Middle East. On balance, are Russia and China gaining or losing more from the war with Iran? The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a live episode of State of Play to explore the implications of the war with Iran for China and Russia on Monday 16 March at 4:00pm. The discussion will feature Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman. This event is made possible through general support to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

President Trump said the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and “it may not be a friendly takeover.” Ryan Berg and Carrie Filipetti join Will to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News,” U.S. Department of State, February 14, 2026. Ryan Berg et al. “China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security,” CSIS, December 6, 2024.

To discuss the risks of regime change in Iran, the lessons to draw from other regime change efforts in the Middle East and beyond, and to outline what the United States can do now to ensure a positive outcome in Iran, Jon Alterman, Daniel Byman, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will Todman on a live episode of State of Play. Jon Alterman, "Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Problem," CSIS, March 3, 2026. Daniel Byman, "6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury," Foreign Policy, February 28, 2026. Mona Yacoubian and Samuel Zabin, "If Compute is the New Oil, War in the Gulf Significantly Raises the Stakes," CSIS, February 27, 2026.

President Trump's economic strategy in SE Asia faces new questions after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how SE Asian states are engaging with the Trump administration and navigating U.S.-China competition in the region. Japhet Quitzon and Greg Poling, "Lessons from the Manila Strategy Forum," CSIS, February 25, 2026. Henrietta Levin, Greg Poling, et al. "State of Play: The Global Impact of the SCOTUS Decision on IEEPA Tariffs," CSIS, February 20, 2026. Henrietta Levin, "The U.S.-Vietnam Trade Deal Makes No Sense" Foreign Policy, July 16, 2025.

Max Bergmann shares his key observations about transatlantic relations after attending the Munich Security Conference. He discusses how European leaders reacted to Secretary Rubio’s speech, the U.S. strategy for Europe, and the ongoing challenges of shifting the defense burden from the United States to Europe. Max Bergmann, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (video) CSIS, November 5, 2025. Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (report) CSIS, October 8, 2025.

Technological advances are not just about economics, but also power and leverage. Mark Dallas and Ilaria Mazzocco join Will to explore the geopolitical aspect of tech competition. They discuss each state's key technological advantages, what geopolitical power they bring them, and how the United States should compete better. "Tech Edge: A Living Playbook for America’s Technology Long Game," CSIS, January 20, 2026. "America's Technology Long Game for Competing with China," CSIS Events, January 28, 2026.

Nick Szechenyi joins Will to analyze the geopolitical consequences of Sanae Takaichi's resounding victory in the February 8 Japanese general elections. They discuss what the prime minister's historic supermajority in the lower house of parliament means for Japan's defense spending, tensions with China, ties with the United States, and Takaichi's broader strategy. Yuko Nakano and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Takaichi Dominates Japan’s Lower House Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026. Kristi Govella, Charles McClean, and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Inside Japan’s High-Stakes Snap Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026.