State of Play

President Trump delayed his planned summit with Xi Jinping from March to May due to the war with Iran. Scott Kennedy and Brian Hart join Will to assess the war's impact on the talks, if the war has changed China's negotiating strategy, and if we should expect a different outcome from the May summit as a result of the delay. Scott Kennedy, "The United States Needs a Coherent China Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Bonny Lin, "Why a Venezuela-Style Operation Would Backfire for Beijing," CSIS, January 9, 2026.

Beyond increasing gas prices, the war with Iran has had significant ripple effects for food security, economic security, and humanitarian crises in the Middle East and beyond. Emily Harding, Caitlin Welsh, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will to discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war that are getting less attention, and what can be done to mitigate their worst effects. Emily Harding, "Data Is Now the Front Line of Warfare," CSIS, March 19, 2026 David Michel, "Could Iran Disrupt the Gulf Countries’ Desalinated Water Supplies?" CSIS, March 19, 2026. Mona Yacoubian, "Iran’s War Strategy: Don’t Calibrate—Escalate," CSIS, March 16, 2026. Emma Curtis, Joely Virzi, and Caitlin Welsh, "Chokepoint: How the War with Iran Threatens Global Food Security," CSIS, March 11, 2026.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was the first U.S. ally to visit President Trump in the White House after he called on allies to help with the war on Iran. Nick Szechenyi joins Will to discuss what Takaichi had hoped to achieve in her visit, how she handled Trump's pressure, and the playbook she's developing for U.S. allies. Kristi Govella and Jane Nakano, "What Are the Implications of the Iran Conflict for Japan?" CSIS, March 20, 2026. "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens U.S.-Japan Alliance for the Benefit of All Americans," The White House, March 19, 2026.

As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week, U.S. attention is focused on the Middle East once again. Both China and Russia may find strategic openings, from higher global energy prices that bolster Moscow’s war economy to new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence elsewhere. But the conflict also carries costs for both. Instability threatens critical energy supplies to China, while the conflict is prompting the further degradation of a key Russian partner in the Middle East. On balance, are Russia and China gaining or losing more from the war with Iran? The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a live episode of State of Play to explore the implications of the war with Iran for China and Russia on Monday 16 March at 4:00pm. The discussion will feature Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman. This event is made possible through general support to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

President Trump said the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and “it may not be a friendly takeover.” Ryan Berg and Carrie Filipetti join Will to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News,” U.S. Department of State, February 14, 2026. Ryan Berg et al. “China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security,” CSIS, December 6, 2024.

To discuss the risks of regime change in Iran, the lessons to draw from other regime change efforts in the Middle East and beyond, and to outline what the United States can do now to ensure a positive outcome in Iran, Jon Alterman, Daniel Byman, and Mona Yacoubian joined Will Todman on a live episode of State of Play. Jon Alterman, "Why Decapitation Will Not Solve the United States’ Iran Problem," CSIS, March 3, 2026. Daniel Byman, "6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury," Foreign Policy, February 28, 2026. Mona Yacoubian and Samuel Zabin, "If Compute is the New Oil, War in the Gulf Significantly Raises the Stakes," CSIS, February 27, 2026.

President Trump's economic strategy in SE Asia faces new questions after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs. Greg Poling and Henrietta Levin join Will to discuss how SE Asian states are engaging with the Trump administration and navigating U.S.-China competition in the region. Japhet Quitzon and Greg Poling, "Lessons from the Manila Strategy Forum," CSIS, February 25, 2026. Henrietta Levin, Greg Poling, et al. "State of Play: The Global Impact of the SCOTUS Decision on IEEPA Tariffs," CSIS, February 20, 2026. Henrietta Levin, "The U.S.-Vietnam Trade Deal Makes No Sense" Foreign Policy, July 16, 2025.

Max Bergmann shares his key observations about transatlantic relations after attending the Munich Security Conference. He discusses how European leaders reacted to Secretary Rubio’s speech, the U.S. strategy for Europe, and the ongoing challenges of shifting the defense burden from the United States to Europe. Max Bergmann, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (video) CSIS, November 5, 2025. Max Bergmann and Otto Svendsen, “How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America,” (report) CSIS, October 8, 2025.

Technological advances are not just about economics, but also power and leverage. Mark Dallas and Ilaria Mazzocco join Will to explore the geopolitical aspect of tech competition. They discuss each state's key technological advantages, what geopolitical power they bring them, and how the United States should compete better. "Tech Edge: A Living Playbook for America’s Technology Long Game," CSIS, January 20, 2026. "America's Technology Long Game for Competing with China," CSIS Events, January 28, 2026.

Nick Szechenyi joins Will to analyze the geopolitical consequences of Sanae Takaichi's resounding victory in the February 8 Japanese general elections. They discuss what the prime minister's historic supermajority in the lower house of parliament means for Japan's defense spending, tensions with China, ties with the United States, and Takaichi's broader strategy. Yuko Nakano and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Takaichi Dominates Japan’s Lower House Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026. Kristi Govella, Charles McClean, and Nicholas Szechenyi, "Inside Japan’s High-Stakes Snap Election," CSIS, February 9, 2026.

At Davos, the Canadian prime minister argued that the rules based system is fading and middle powers must work together to build a new world order. Chris Hernandez-Roy and Kristi Govella join Will to discuss whether or not key U.S. allies like Canada and Japan could do this, what it might look like, and what the risks are. Mark Carney, "Davos 2026: Special address by Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada," January 20, 2026. Kristi Govella, "Japan’s Response to Trump 2.0: Sustaining U.S. Ties, Strengthening International Partnerships," CSIS, October 6, 2025. Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Juliana Rubio, Jessie Hu, and Sam Smith, "President Trump’s Latin America Policy: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Risks," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

In a special live episode to mark the launch of a new book on China's weaponization of trade, Will sits down with its main author Dr. Victor Cha and panelists Bethany Allen and Dr. Melanie Hart. They discuss how China's economic strategy is evolving, how it compares with President Trump's own form of economic coercion, and what states and firms can do to push back. Victor Cha, Ellen Kim, and Andy Lim, "China's Weaponization of Trade: Resistance Through Collective Resilience" (Columbia University Press), January 2026. Victor Cha, "How to Stop Chinese Coercion," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2023. Watch video of the discussion.

After a momentous year of geopolitical shifts, 12 CSIS experts join Will to share what they consider the most significant developments in different parts of the world in 2025. They also share their predictions for what they expect to happen across the world in the year ahead. "Indo-Pacific Forecast 2026," CSIS, January 14, 2026.

Nicolas Maduro was a key ally of the so-called CRINK countries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) in Latin America. But President Trump’s actions in Venezuela seemingly support an attempt to alter the balance of power in the Western Hemisphere. The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a special episode of State of Play on the lessons these states are learning from Maduro’s capture and what it means for their interests going forward. The discussion will feature Dr. Ryan Berg, Henrietta Levin, Dr. Vali Nasr, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman.

2025 was a transformative year for geopolitics. Victor Cha and the Brookings Institution's Dr. Tom Wright join Will to discuss how the United States' global strategy changed, how its allies and adversaries are responding, and what to watch for in the year ahead. Thomas Wright, "A Strategy That Ignores the Real Threats," The Atlantic, December 8, 2025. Victor Cha (ed.), "Navigating Disruption: Ally and Partner Responses to U.S. Foreign Policy," CSIS, October 6, 2025.

After a flurry of diplomacy on Ukraine and the release of the new U.S. National Security Strategy, Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya join Will to discuss what we should expect from ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine and how the growing crisis in transatlantic relations might shape the contours of a deal. Max Bergmann, "The NSS That Could Destroy the NATO Alliance," CSIS, December 5, 2025. Mark F Cancian and Maria Snegovaya, "The Unfinished Plan for Peace in Ukraine: Provision by Provision," CSIS, November 24, 2025.

The visits of the Saudi crown price and the Syrian president to the White House resulted in large investment deals and new defense announcements. Mona Yacoubian and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney join Will to discuss how successful the visits really were, what failed to materialize, and what surprises emerged. Michael Ratney, “A Crown Prince with a New Set of Priorities,” New York Times, November 17, 2025. Mona Yacoubian and Michael Ratney, “MBS in Washington: What’s Next for U.S.-Saudi Relations?” CSIS, November 6, 2025.