School of War

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war? Today on School of War, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of sitting in the interviewer’s chair, as I usually do – I’m the one being interviewed. I joined Rafaela Siewert of The Free Press to talk through my current thinking on the war in Iran. ▪️ Times 02:03 Trump’s speech 05:22 Escalation 10:10 Goals 12:25 Risk and scale 15:15 Kinds of surprise 17:37 Misreading the Iranians 22:10 15 Points 25:49 Opening the Strait of Hormuz 29:24 Branding 32:44 Oil 37:15 Kharg Island 41:35 Regime alteration 44:20 Time and resources 48:49 Balance 50:11 Trump, MAGA, and the Right Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins the show to explain the complexities of deterrence against China, the strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and the implications of the wars in Ukraine and Iran for Taiwan. We break down China’s plausible gray-zone tactics like quarantine and coercive mobilization, and how these tools, if unchecked, could lead to a total economic or military break. Where are the vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense industrial base, in naval and trade logistics, and in missile magazine depth? ▪️ Times 01:45 No path out 04:13 Maintaining balance 10:18 Kasserine lessons 16:51 China’s possible moves in the gray-zone 22:53 More stockpiling 27:33 Invasion 34:21 Decapitation and bombardment 39:20 An economic and political problem 46:42 The Summit Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast, joins the show to break down how the U.S. and Israel are executing a 'neurological' campaign—using precision, targeted strikes on the Iranian Regime and its center of gravity. A strategy that’s as old as Clausewitz but more relevant than ever. How are the U.S. and Israel balancing the psychological impact of their precision strikes in tandem with the more traditional threat of brute force? What might this approach reveal about today’s conflicts, and how might it influence the next global showdown? ▪️ Times 03:25 Targeting as strategy 10:40 Neurological strike 20:16 An evolution in military affairs 26:30 Adaptation 30:48 Center of gravity 39:37 The missile program Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, break down what’s really happening behind the headlines — from covert strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites to the fragile possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. How are the U.S., Israel, and Iran navigating the negotiations, and are there any operational knock-on effects? What are the realities and complexities of potential ground invasions, targeted raids, and covert operations that could shape the next phase of conflict? What are the risks of seizing Kharg Island or launching strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities? How does the Iranian regime’s use of civilian infrastructure complicate precise strikes, and how do intelligence gaps and political signals influence U.S. decisions? What is the strategic significance of Kharg Island, what are the challenges of amphibious operations along Iran’s long coastline, and what are the odds of a ground campaign in the coming weeks? ▪️ Times 02:42 Negotiations 09:17 U.S. options 15:35 Ground forces 18:53 M.E.U 25:35 Kharg Island 37:53 Silence on the nuclear program 45:13 JSOC 53:02 Acting with speed Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Sir Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and columnist at The Free Press, reveals how geography and choke points have always been pivotal in global conflicts and just like the Dardanelles during WWI, today’s hotspots like the Straits of Hormuz and Taiwan remind us that some strategic challenges never change. What exactly are chokepoints and why do they matter? How do the lessons of Gallipoli and Ukraine apply to the war with Iran? How is the current situation different from the Tanker War and WWI? Can naval and air power alone open the Strait of Hormuz and keep it open? Is there a timeline for success? And what does this all mean for U.S. magazine depth, the economy, and China? ▪️ Times 02:49 Gallipoli 11:08 Unintended consequences 18:10 Ukraine 26:22 A failure of perception 31:36 The right call by Trump? 37:34 Regime alteration 47:05 Timeframes 53:33 China Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Zineb Riboua, research fellow with Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace andSecurity in the Middle East, joins the show to talk about the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, focusing on China's interests and involvement. How dependent is China on the region's energy resources? How does China project power in the Middle East and in Africa? Is China benefiting or suffering from the current war? What are the geopolitical and strategic considerations for both Beijing and D.C.? Times02:19 Going badly for China06:24 Specific military goals07:47 China & the Middle East12:44 Iranian Oil15:34 Layers18:12 Trump and Xi22:54 Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz26:46 Best case/worst case scenarios29:42 Russia and Africa33:36 Strategic revenge

Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty, joins the show to talk about the origins, evolution, and possible future of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What forces produced the 1979 revolution, and how did it reshape Iran’s political and religious order? What are the psychological and sociological impacts of this revolution? How have the regime’s leaders interpreted and sustained the revolutionary project, and what have the major challenges been? As Iran enters a new and uncertain phase under Mojtaba Khamenei, can the Islamic Republic endure, or is there a potential for future revolution in Iran? ▪️ Times 02:07 Living through the Islamic Revolution 04:12 A diverse Iran 05:50 How did the revolution succeed? 14:06 Khomeini & Khamenei 20:46 Too cautious 22:35 Dynastic succession 34:00 Iran vs. Venezuela 38:35 Regime resiliency 44:30 Beginning of the end 50:14 Threshold states Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at FDD and retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, joins the show to provide in-depth analysis of the Iran conflict. Mark gives his thoughts on naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, including their strategic implications for the progress of the war. He also discusses drone warfare, missile defense, and the broader geopolitical context. Mark also explains how Ukraine and Russia are playing growing parts in the war. ▪️ Times 02:30 A constant menace 07:34 Radar and THAAD 11:06 Hormuz 20:26 Real deterrence 31:36 Russian targeting 38:38 Conservation of resources 46:03 Life at sea Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie Jr, USMC (ret.), commanded US Central Command from 2019-2022. Gen. McKenzie led a distinguished 42 year career in the US Marine Corps, commanding at multiple levels and serving on the Joint Staff. In this in-depth conversation, General McKenzie shares his insights on the recent U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, strategic mistakes by Iran, and the prospects for regime change. He gives a full breakdown of Iran's military capabilities, regional dynamics, and possible future scenarios. ▪️ Times 03:45 Iranian response 07:40 Ballistic missiles 19:06 Defeating drones 22:20 Soleimani 30:31 Iranian miscalculation 32:48 War was never inevitable 36:18 Outcomes Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Fred Kagan, senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, joins the show to discuss the war, what Ukraine can do to help the Gulf with drone defense, and the future of the Islamic Republic. ▪️ 01:51 Updates 03:29 Iranian strikes 09:15 Munitions crisis 14:28 Innovation 18:45 Isolated and weak 25:12 Arming the opposition 30:55 A dangerous game 36:22 10/7 40:21 Turkey Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mike Doran, senior fellow and director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute, joins the show to bring us the latest breakdown on the war and how long this may go on. ▪️ Times 01:52 Where are things going? 05:45 Rational strikes 09:56 A weakened positioned 16:33 Lasting change 20:13 What comes next? 26:40 Regional war 30:28 Integration 38:30 The Decider 47:32 Futures Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of FDD, joins the show to bring us up to speed on the rapidly developing full-scale conflict between the United States-Israel and Iran. ▪️ Times 01:19 Iranian leaders targeted 04:48 10/7 roots 07:39 Ambitious war aims 12:41 Scope 15:59 Regime change 20:11 Iranian response 23:42 Playing with fire 28:13 Partnership Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Yossi Cohen, served as the director of the Mossad from 2016 until 2021 and is the author of The Sword of Freedom: Israel, Mossad, and the Secret War. As director, he personally orchestrated some of the Mossad’s most daring operations, such as the seizure of the Iranian nuclear archives—the exposure of which was among the main factors behind the United States’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal—and clandestine activity all over the world. ▪️ Times 01:27 Joining the Mossad 16:02 Serving behind the lines 26:31 Recruitment 32:45 HUMINT 39:50 Deciding to strike 44:36 Iran 49:51 Moral conflicts Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director (Iran Program) and Senior Fellow at FDD, joins the show to talk about the build-up of American military power in the Middle East and what it might mean for Iran and the Iranian regime. ▪️ Times 02:04 U.S. build-up 05:46 Timing 11:08 “Decisive and different” 24:41 Iranian retaliation 30:03 Targets 35:25 Ideology of the Supreme Leader 41:36 A Trump JCPOA 45:46 Regime change by air Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Charlie Laderman, associate professor at the University of Florida’s Hamilton School for Classical and Civic Education, joins the show to discuss parallels between Reagan’s policy towards Cold War Poland and the crisis in Iran today. ▪️ Times 02:45 Comparing Iran and Poland 05:56 Reagan’s plan 10:15 Reheating the Cold War 12:26 ’81 coup 15:53 Sanctions and pressure 20:19 Constant agitation 27:38 End of the Cold War 34:45 The violence of the Iranian regime 37:55 Structural differences 44:32 Exiled opposition Read the article discussed in the episode - Freedom for Iran: Learning From U.S. Support for Polish Anti-Communists in the 1980s Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Rep. Michael Baumgartner of Washington State’s 5th Congressional District joins the show to give his key takeaways from the Munich Security Conference. ▪️ Times 01:34 Getting to Munich 05:22 European attitude 14:20 AOC and recalibration 17:50 Germany returns 23:59 Rubio’s speech 30:23 Ukraine 39:22 Iran and a “good” deal Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast

Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London and author of On Strategists and Strategy: Collected Essays, 2014-2024, joins the show to talk about a lifetime among strategists, and to give an update on the war in Ukraine. ▪️ Times 02:34 Essay writing 07:49 Michael Howard 18:42 Colin Gray 23:06 Timeless aspects of strategy 26:00 The goal of SDI 36:40 Tactics 41:20 Differences between tactics and strategy 45:01 Ultimate objectives 50:08 Sensible uses of nuclear weapons 52:24 Thatcher 53:59 Harsh winter in Ukraine Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Matthew Kroenig, Professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, joins the show to talk about the new nuclear age the world is entering. ▪️ Times 03:27 Secret Chinese testing 07:35 Seismic monitoring and de-coupling 11:40 U.S. testing plan 15:30 Why might we need more nuclear weapons? 18:01 New START 21:23 How many nukes are needed? 27:04 If deterrence fails 30:20 Limits, if any Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Beatrice Heuser, Distinguished Professor at the Brussels School of Governance in the Free University of Brussels and author of Flawed Strategy: Why Smart Leaders Make Bad Decisions, joins the show to discuss decision-making and strategic thinking. ▪️ Times 02:58 Economists and strategy 07:59 Acting rationally vs logically 15:00 Mirror imaging 20:01 How should we study strategy? 27:17 Denial 32:18 Strategic intelligence failures 36:15 Hidden causes 38:57 Everyone does it Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Geoff Ball, U.S. Marine Corps infantry officer, staff director for the Naval Academy’s Leadership Education and Development Division and Executive Editor of The Connecting File, joins the show to discuss the radical changes and surprising continuities in how America’s grunts will fight. ▪️ Times 02:25 The Connecting File 06:22 How is the infantry doing? 14:10 Companies of the future 23:22 Information and trust 29:57 Innovative spirit 33:30 Light Armored Recon 39:05 Drone battalions 42:24 Learning the right lessons from Ukraine Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

David Shedd, former Acting Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency and author of The Great Heist: China’s Epic Campaign to Steal America’s Secrets, joins the show to discuss Chinese spy craft. ▪️ Times 02:05 Early days 06:49 CIA 09:28 Sandinistas and revolutionaries 15:14 IC preparation 18:35 A great awakening 26:11 Industrial espionage 30:50 National Intelligence Estimate 34:11 The MSS 44:19 The culture of the 18th Bureau 50:17 Battlefield consequences 55:20 Counterarguments Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Walter Russell Mead, Alexander Hamilton Professor of Strategy and Statecraft at the University of Florida's Hamilton Center and columnist for The Wall Street Journal, joins the show to discuss foreign policy in the Age of Trump. ▪️ Times 03:15 An extraordinary week 05:06 The Transatlantic relationship 09:02 Turning to China 16:10 Greenland 27:03 Post-presidency Trump 32:25 Harder now 43:08 Zelenskyy Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Seth Jones, president of the Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair at CSIS, joins the show to talk about how America has resurrected its defense industrial base in the past and why it should be doing so now. ▪️ Times 02:55 The British in the 1930s 05:58 Roosevelt’s decision 09:48 Re-orientation 13:59 The B-29 16:00 Victory in Iraq 27:54 Skunkworks 31:30 Xi comes into power 35:07 Disadvantages 39:07 What needs to be done? 44:28 Fighting for 5% 47:43 Culture shift Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Michael Lurie, CEO and President of Rafael USA, joins the show to explain how High Energy Lasers and Iron Beam will change missile & air defense, not to mention warfare itself, forever. ▪️ Times 02:34 The evolution of missile defense 05:09 Iron Dome & Iron Beam 08:04 How do lasers work? 15:16 Limitations 20:07 Integrating systems 25:28 Future applications 30:09 Lessons from field testing 40:15 American interest Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Blake Seitz, Content Strategist at Palantir Technologies, and Mike Watson, Executive Director at The Alexander Hamilton Society, join the show to discuss America’s relationship with the world at the time of the Founding Fathers. ▪️ Times 02:45 18th Century geopolitical landscape 06:25 Yorktown 11:17 Diplomacy of the Founders 16:23 Bold rhetoric 19:37 Federalists vs. Anti-Federalists 25:45 Washington’s legacy 32:42 The roots of isolationism 36:38 Parallels and changes 44:16 What does it mean to be an American? 47:20 A grounding in history Read more - 1776: The Beginnings of American Exceptionalism Abroad Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of FDD, joins the show to bring us up to speed on widespread Iranian protests, the chances of American or Israeli intervention, and what intervention might achieve. ▪️ Times 02:15 Will we strike? 05:34 New Iran talks? 07:03 Nuclear concessions? 10:35 Intervention possibilities 15:10 The Shah’s son and the Islamic regime 24:28 How do these protests compare to the past? 34:29 Public perceptions Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at FDD and retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, joins the show to discuss Venezuela’s shadow fleet, the cyber component of the Maduro raid, and the future of the U.S. Navy. ▪️ Times 03:04 Shadow Fleets 06:06 Ship Hunting 10:07 Coast Guard 12:35 Leverage and Sanctions 18:37 Planning the Maduro Raid 24:57 How We Use Cyber 28:45 Types of Risk 31:50 State of the Navy 36:56 Return of the Battleship? Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela and Iran from 2019 to 2021, joins the show to discuss Venezuela and what might happen next. ▪️ Times 02:04 Snatch and Grab 05:50 Intelligence Operations 12:04 Oil 16:50 Holding the Country Together 24:16 Risks & Mistakes 30:48 Blockade 33:54 Hard To Leave 39:11 Not Iraq 41:48 Cuba 42:21 The Iranian Regime Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mark Jones Jr., chief pilot of experimental flight test with the Honda Aircraft Company and recently retired U.S. Air Force test pilot and special operations commander, joins the show to talk about the nature of special air operations and the extraordinary air raid that kicked off Desert Storm. ▪️ Times 02:45 9/11 05:58 Test Pilot 11:52 Special Air Operations 17:54 Two Vastly Different Experiences 21:24 Kabul 24:18 Desert Storm 32:30 Harder to See, Not Invisible 34:46 Battle Damage 39:55 September 1990 42:21 Party In 10 45:05 Navigation Technology Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director (Iran Program) and Senior Fellow at FDD, joins the show to talk about how Iran has worked to reconstitute its missile program since the summer, and what the U.S. and Israel might do to stop it. ▪️ Times 01:43 Vessel Seizure 05:45 Making a Ballistic Missile 13:06 What Modern War Looks Like 17:19 Iran’s Missile Program 21:42 Evolving Assessment 26:24 Relevance for U.S. Defense Planning 30:00 Disconnected Victories 35:04 Lessons from the 10/07 War 39:31 Bad Choices for Iran Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Kevin Passmore, professor of History at Cardiff University and author of The Maginot Line: A New History, joins the show to talk about the most elaborate fortification system of the 20th century and why it failed. ▪️ Times 02:03 Attacking the Maginot Line 05:53 Fortifications and Warfare 11:48 Flexibility vs Depth 15:38 A Total Commitment to War 19:49 French Defensive Concepts 22:42 Living in the Line 27:31 Decision in Belgium 36:22 Breaking the Enemy’s Will 39:36 Ukrainian Fortifications Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Christian Brose, President and Chief Strategy Officer at Anduril Industries and author of The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare, joins the show to talk about American industry and the future of war. ▪️ Times 02:26 Erosion of Military Advantage 11:11 The Nature of the Problem 16:42 Consensus and Urgency 21:01 Learning the Right Lessons in Ukraine 25:32 Scaling Up for the Offense 31:23 Leveraging AI for Defense 38:07 Will Liberal Arts and Humanities Win? 41:56 Arsenal-1 47:31 Silicon Valley and Defense 52:24 Collaborative Combat Aircraft Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Eric Cline, professor of Classical and Ancient Near Eastern Studies and of Anthropology at The George Washington University and author of 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed, joins the show to break down the collapse of the Bronze Age civilization and why it matters today. ▪️ Times 02:57 Writing History for All 04:51 The Three Age System 10:32 Tin: The Oil of the Ancient World 11:37 Archeology in the Future 13:22 Bronze Age Society 21:02 The Beginning and End of History 26:07 The Sea Peoples 32:36 The Collapse 35:00 The Mystery of the Exodus 40:53 Resilience and Regeneration Post-Collapse Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela and Iran from 2019 to 2021, joins the show to discuss events in the Caribbean. ▪️ Times 01:56 Venezuela Through Multiple Administrations 06:05 Maduro 11:53 Trump to Biden 17:56 U.S. Military Capabilities 24:05 Political Justifications 30:11 The Venezuelan Opposition 35:56 Machado in Hiding 41:27 Worst Case Scenarios Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Nadia Schadlow, former Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy and senior fellow at Hudson Institute, joins the show to breakdown what strategic depth is and why the concept remains relevant. ▪️ Times 02:37 Unhinged, Frenetic Times 03:36 What is Strategic Depth? 07:50 A Lack of Space 12:50 Territory and War 14:55 How to Increase Time 23:18 Allies and Forward Defense 30:29 How Do You Get Freedom of Choice? 36:57 Keeping and Maintaining Strategic Depth Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack