School of War

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war? Today on School of War, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of sitting in the interviewer’s chair, as I usually do – I’m the one being interviewed. I joined Rafaela Siewert of The Free Press to talk through my current thinking on the war in Iran. ▪️ Times 02:03 Trump’s speech 05:22 Escalation 10:10 Goals 12:25 Risk and scale 15:15 Kinds of surprise 17:37 Misreading the Iranians 22:10 15 Points 25:49 Opening the Strait of Hormuz 29:24 Branding 32:44 Oil 37:15 Kharg Island 41:35 Regime alteration 44:20 Time and resources 48:49 Balance 50:11 Trump, MAGA, and the Right Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins the show to explain the complexities of deterrence against China, the strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and the implications of the wars in Ukraine and Iran for Taiwan. We break down China’s plausible gray-zone tactics like quarantine and coercive mobilization, and how these tools, if unchecked, could lead to a total economic or military break. Where are the vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense industrial base, in naval and trade logistics, and in missile magazine depth? ▪️ Times 01:45 No path out 04:13 Maintaining balance 10:18 Kasserine lessons 16:51 China’s possible moves in the gray-zone 22:53 More stockpiling 27:33 Invasion 34:21 Decapitation and bombardment 39:20 An economic and political problem 46:42 The Summit Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast, joins the show to break down how the U.S. and Israel are executing a 'neurological' campaign—using precision, targeted strikes on the Iranian Regime and its center of gravity. A strategy that’s as old as Clausewitz but more relevant than ever. How are the U.S. and Israel balancing the psychological impact of their precision strikes in tandem with the more traditional threat of brute force? What might this approach reveal about today’s conflicts, and how might it influence the next global showdown? ▪️ Times 03:25 Targeting as strategy 10:40 Neurological strike 20:16 An evolution in military affairs 26:30 Adaptation 30:48 Center of gravity 39:37 The missile program Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, break down what’s really happening behind the headlines — from covert strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites to the fragile possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. How are the U.S., Israel, and Iran navigating the negotiations, and are there any operational knock-on effects? What are the realities and complexities of potential ground invasions, targeted raids, and covert operations that could shape the next phase of conflict? What are the risks of seizing Kharg Island or launching strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities? How does the Iranian regime’s use of civilian infrastructure complicate precise strikes, and how do intelligence gaps and political signals influence U.S. decisions? What is the strategic significance of Kharg Island, what are the challenges of amphibious operations along Iran’s long coastline, and what are the odds of a ground campaign in the coming weeks? ▪️ Times 02:42 Negotiations 09:17 U.S. options 15:35 Ground forces 18:53 M.E.U 25:35 Kharg Island 37:53 Silence on the nuclear program 45:13 JSOC 53:02 Acting with speed Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Sir Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and columnist at The Free Press, reveals how geography and choke points have always been pivotal in global conflicts and just like the Dardanelles during WWI, today’s hotspots like the Straits of Hormuz and Taiwan remind us that some strategic challenges never change. What exactly are chokepoints and why do they matter? How do the lessons of Gallipoli and Ukraine apply to the war with Iran? How is the current situation different from the Tanker War and WWI? Can naval and air power alone open the Strait of Hormuz and keep it open? Is there a timeline for success? And what does this all mean for U.S. magazine depth, the economy, and China? ▪️ Times 02:49 Gallipoli 11:08 Unintended consequences 18:10 Ukraine 26:22 A failure of perception 31:36 The right call by Trump? 37:34 Regime alteration 47:05 Timeframes 53:33 China Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Zineb Riboua, research fellow with Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace andSecurity in the Middle East, joins the show to talk about the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, focusing on China's interests and involvement. How dependent is China on the region's energy resources? How does China project power in the Middle East and in Africa? Is China benefiting or suffering from the current war? What are the geopolitical and strategic considerations for both Beijing and D.C.? Times02:19 Going badly for China06:24 Specific military goals07:47 China & the Middle East12:44 Iranian Oil15:34 Layers18:12 Trump and Xi22:54 Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz26:46 Best case/worst case scenarios29:42 Russia and Africa33:36 Strategic revenge

Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty, joins the show to talk about the origins, evolution, and possible future of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What forces produced the 1979 revolution, and how did it reshape Iran’s political and religious order? What are the psychological and sociological impacts of this revolution? How have the regime’s leaders interpreted and sustained the revolutionary project, and what have the major challenges been? As Iran enters a new and uncertain phase under Mojtaba Khamenei, can the Islamic Republic endure, or is there a potential for future revolution in Iran? ▪️ Times 02:07 Living through the Islamic Revolution 04:12 A diverse Iran 05:50 How did the revolution succeed? 14:06 Khomeini & Khamenei 20:46 Too cautious 22:35 Dynastic succession 34:00 Iran vs. Venezuela 38:35 Regime resiliency 44:30 Beginning of the end 50:14 Threshold states Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack