Saxo Market Call

Today, an assessment of the end-of-March and quarter-end melt-up in equities, where calendar and positioning factors are likely key drivers in addition to Trump's seeming urgency to wind down the US war in Iran. A bit odd that US military presence continues to mount then, isn't it? A look at ongoing supply chain questions, how the situation is weighing on rates and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a US market that was under exceptional pressure as major US name sold off, taking the US market to cycle lows when the broader market and other markets globally are still solidly away from the prior lows. Also, noting the many pressure points on market concerns for class action suits against Meta and possibly Google, technical disruption boosting computer memory performance and even LNG closures in Australia, all while US treasury yields and oil are ramping higher again ahead of another weekend. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links: Here is Triggernometry interviewing an expert on the risk that this Iran conflict drags on, but with some interesting ideas as well on how Trump might flip the script. Here is the interview with Kuppy on the Benny and the Squirrel podcast, the hedge fund manager with some worthy observations on current market conditions, the general market environment and his approach to trading. Golden stuff. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Markets are aggressively pricing an improved outlook for global energy flows as US president Trump seems to want to wrap things up in Iran as quickly as possible to avoid further damage to his popularity from the impact on the US economy from high energy prices and weak stock market sentiment. But not all players in the Middle East are on the same page - so we're a bit afraid to draw any conclusions until more clarity emerges. Elsewhere, software-as-a-service names were under new pressure once again. We also talk macro & FX and even provide a little wrap on the Danish general election from Thursday. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we look at the market-altering after effects of Trump's claims of diplomacy with Iran as he backed away from an ultimatum against Iran's power infrastructure if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, and how nothing has changed on the ground, or on the seas, even as oil prices remain significantly lower than where they were before Trump's claims yesterday. We also run through the latest moves in US treasuries, a critical market for risk sentiment, as well as reactions and the state of play in major currencies. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Regarding today's discussion on OpenAI and Elon Musk's comment that "OpenAI is goint to eat Microsoft alive", a long-form X post on risks to the relationship. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Markets had been reacting to the war in Iran recently, of course, but perhaps it has been the explosion higher in global bond yields that has triggered a more profound unease on Friday and today. It's also a factor in gold prices suffering a massive meltdown. Today's discussion looks at these factors as well as the ongoing war impacts on the forward oil market curve and the whole commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a market for which volatility remains very much pent up as we face the triple whammy of triple witching, weekend uncertainty and pivotal technicals for US equity markets. Also, a survey of key incoming news and supply chain perspectives as the countdown for physical shortfalls in supplies continues. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. As discussed on today's pod, here's a link to some of the key countdown clocks linked to supply shortfalls of key products that are not currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The war in Iran has taken on new levels of concern after Israeli and Iranian attacks on gas production infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, respectively, with the dispersion of global energy prices exploding further on the news. Elsewhere, the central bank cavalcade continues with the Bank of Japan helping USDJPY steer away from new highs. The gold sell-off has suddenly accelerated and there are some compelling narratives and reasons for it to continue lower if these are important drivers. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links First the link to Michael McNair X post outlining the big structural shift in what powers gold and why it is under pressure and could remain so here. Then, the latest Goehring & Rozencwajg long-form report on commodities with great coverage of the scale of disruption from the Hormuz Strait closure, some long term historical perspectives on commodities and whether they are too cheap and lots more. Simple registry required to download. Important - following link is highly speculative and I am not endorsing the views, but it's one possible lens for how the situation is playing out. Finally, a massive tweet thread from shipping industry executive John Konrad on how the US may be leveraging this situation to further its strategy of regaining more control over global shipping routes and even ships themselves, together with other possible domestic agendas. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the market continuing to radiate confidence that things will turn out well despite the lack of real progress or any new clarity emerging from the war in Iran or Hormuz Strait. The market enthusiasm for memory makers remains hot and key player in that space Micron is reporting after the US close today. We also look at the seven of the G10 central banks up today and tomorrow, with BoJ and ECB particularly in focus for their guidance tomorrow, but with the FOMC up later today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, plenty of headlines from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices boiling, if not yet boiling over, with plenty more to come if the oil doesn't start flowing soon. Are the US and Israel flailing or slowly winning? The opinions are certainly very divided. Elsewhere, Jensen Huang's tries and fails to pump up enthusiasm for sideways trending Nvidia stock, an interesting sign, while high-flying memory maker Micron is set to report tomorrow after the close. Macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Here's an X Post from Chris Laub discussing a paper that describes why the current generation of AI hardware is poorly designed for the inference needs that are in highest demand and what the implications are - clearly plenty of urgency to streamline the output per watt with future systems designs, from how tasks are routed to the design of the hardware itself. On the Iran War, here's one commenter making a reasonable case that the US has gotten itself in a mess with this Iran War, with few good options on what to do next save for just leaving. We are not endorsing this point of view, just pointing to it. And others think that the Israeli-US strategy is working as Iran's decades of preparation are being destroyed in a matter of days and weeks. Interestingly, Ilan (writer of the first post linked to above) specifically tries to dismantle the second link in another post. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we discuss the markets continuing to price forward expectations that Hormuz Strait uncertainty will lift quickly from here, especially when one looks at the very steep backwardation in crude oil futures and US equity market sentiment. As well, we note that the critical signals in energy market pricing are to be found in key refined products more than crude itself. We also look at the eight G10 central banks set to meet this week, why precious metals are under pressure and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we discuss a sense of unease that the market remains as complacent as it does given the magnitude of the disruption of oil and gas supplies through the Hormuz Strait. We also discuss Adobe's huge stumble despite strong earnings, FX and gold and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links: Anas Alhajji discussing important current state of affairs with the war and oil/gas supply situation. A discussion group on the "US Dollar Endgame" with Michael Every, Brent Johnson, Izabella Kaminska and others. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we try to try to find the signal amongst the general noise level and headlines coming both from the Iran War and the wider region and from the US politicians, especially regarding the status of the war and its intents. Most importantly, we try to understand if the US is actually playing a geostrategic brinksmanship card with China with this conflict and what the consequences of that might be ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit at the end of this month. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, an attempt to assess the comeback in risk sentiment and retreat in oil prices and whether we can trust President Trump's framing of the war situation, as a "TACO" (Trump always chickens out) may be more difficult to achieve now that the US and Israel or on a full war footing with an Iran that remains defiant and continues to launch missiles and drones. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Global markets are rightly on edge about the situation in Iran and the disruption of the lifeline of crude oil, LNG and other supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, but the damage to confidence looks restrained relative to what awaits if the oil and gas don't begin to flow this week. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a rundown of how various global markets are positioned relative to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for various time periods. Towards the end of the podcast, we look at why, even if the short term focus is on the Strait of Hormuz and whether regime change lies ahead for Iran, something far more monumental is at stake. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo also breaks down the earnings reports and market reactions for key companies reporting this week, including Crowdstrike, Broadcom and Marvell and looks at three more key names set to report next week, including Oracle. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. The FX Trader post from today from John. The Michael McNair post discussing with a priceless framing of the US-China race for control of supply chains as tension builds with the US' latest moves. About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, the market off on a cautious footing as crude oil prices remain high after yesterday's strong bounce-back attempt, with intense headline risk in both directions. We look at the latest developments and wonder where the US intelligence attempts to support Kurdish rebellions in Iran could lead, among other key questions. Elsewhere, Broadcom unleashed a massive forecast for its AI chip business in its earnings call and managed to get a positive reaction initially, the latest test for AI stocks. Macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we note the US market's out-of-step behaviour relative to the rest of the world, as US traders have taken a buy-the-dip stance while Europe was down heavily on Tuesday and parts of Asia practically crashed overnight. US market internals continue to throw off interesting signals as well. We also note that the market continues to price a relatively short disruption to shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz and discuss on what time scale the disruption would become more profound. Macro & FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. As promised on today's pod, here is a great conversation on the Triggernometry podcast with two experts and their perspectives on the Iranian conflict. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Yesterday's positive close on the US equity market was a head scratcher and we try to put together a set of reasons how it was possible as we quickly yielded to a fresh round of deep risk off in Asia and Europe overnight and into this morning. Some thoughts on the "energy overlay" for all of the major currencies should this conflict persist and the energy price spike worsen and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today we run through what has just happened in Iran, how global markets have reacted and the key developments to watch from here as we consider a few scenarios for where this takes us. So far, the market reaction outside of energy markets has been quite modest. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the market punishing Nvidia shares, and many other AI hardware-related stocks in Thursday's session - was this mostly about options-related flow or red flag related to long term growth concerns? Also, a look at other names with big moves, including Block ripping higher on announcing plans to fire 40% of its workforce due to AI productivity gains. Elsewhere, some thoughts on macro and FX and SMC goes down a rare earth rabbit hole on one of the rarest of all elements as well as the future of memory, a key hardware tech space to watch. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. The Goodfellows discuss Iran and other topics - important for considering scenarios and the odds that something big is set to happen in Iran. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Let's see if the US cash session (and the action into Friday's options expiry) tells us otherwise, but the market's very restrained reaction to Nvidia's very strong report might suggest a concern linked to the long term sustainability of Nvidia's prospects even amidst the incredible near term numbers. Elsewhere, we break down the results of other key software-as-a-service names reporting as well as some thoughts on Iran, a top geopolitical concern the market is ignoring, FX and more. Today's pod features Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The AI disruption trade finally saw some consolidation yesterday, ironically the day after a viral report on profound AI disruption sweeping over the market. Elsewhere, we have Meta going big on its commitment to AMD and Nvidia and key software-as-a-service names reporting today after the close. In FX, the JPY is tumbling as dovish BoJ appointments have the market questioning whether Japan's PM Takaichi has any commitment to corral JPY weakness, which may have also provided the fresh lift in gold and silver. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The AI disruption overlay trade is now bordering on the AI apocalypse trade as a well penned research report intensifies the sell-off in names that the market fears the future of AI will disrupt. IBM suddenly the latest victim on the announcement of the latest Anthropic tool that might be able to update old mainframe software. We try to assess the landscape and wonder when and whether the selling stops, or whether the sell-off sparks widening fears for the market. The latest on macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

With Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Equity Market strategist, today we delve into how to approach and rate the prospects for beaten down software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks with a systematic approach and how some names may have been unfairly punished recently while the business models of others are indeed in doubt. We also look at a number of important software names reporting this week, as well as previewing the biggest hardware name of them all: Nvidia, who reports earnings Wednesday. Also, Trump tariffs, macro and FX and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Today's links: Ruben's piece: The AI stress-test for software stocks: a simple framework to spot disruption risk The JPY carry trade is important to understand, as well as the risks should it be set to unwind in coming weeks and months. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, another breakdown of the remarkable dispersion in the US market, with few signs that it is ending just yet, while Europe continues to soar on record inflows. FX is deeper in limbo after USD shorts were squeezed - important to see how we close for the week there, especially for EURUSD as we saw a very pale green shoot from the German Manufacturing PMI today for the first time in years. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended themselves. In any case, equity technicals look pivotal here, as does the USD and JPY outlook in key pairs, all while we wonder whether markets, outside of the crude oil market itself, are too complacent in continuing to ignore the risk of the outbreak of a war or regime change attempt in Iran. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, continuing to note the wild swings in individual names even as the overall indices look relatively flat on the surface, while wondering whether some of the recent attempts to play the AI winners/losers game has gone too far and if we could see some mean reversion. We run through a number of individual stock stories as well. Over in macro and FX we note the market shifting into limbo mode, which is raising uncertainty levels uncomfortably. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Two links for today. The one to a great recent podcast on all things FX, speculative stocks and more with Brent Donnelly and another some comments from Jeremy Grantham on the risks to the main indices if two of the "big three" IPOs happen this year. Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.