Reuters Morning Bid

Markets remain uneasy as U.S. President Donald Trump's 48‑hour ultimatum for Iran stretches to five days with no clarity on negotiations. Oil climbs back above $100 and today’s PMI surveys offer the first read on how the war is hitting business confidence. Today’s recommended read: Why $100 oil won't break the American consumer, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Global stocks tumble after President Trump gives Iran a Monday deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a sharp escalation. Energy prices jump and traditional safe havens falter, leaving investors with few places to hide. Today’s recommended read: Trump's Iran war oil shield is cracking, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Investors head into the final full week of the quarter after a turbulent stretch dominated by the Iran conflict, an energy shock, and shifting AI sentiment. Key survey data this week will offer the first read on how the war is filtering through to business activity. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Qatar warns of multi‑year output losses after strikes on its main gas field, intensifying concerns over long‑term supply. The Fed stays steady on policy expectations, while the ECB and BOE pivot toward rate hikes. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Energy markets catch their breath after Western moves to boost supply, though Qatar’s gas sector warns of years-long disruption. Plus, a dramatic shift in rate expectations drives one of the steepest selloffs in European sovereign debt in months. Today’s recommended read: Kevin Warsh's first move as Fed chair could be a rate hike, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A strike on Iran’s South Pars field sends oil above $110 and natural gas higher. The Fed leaves rates unchanged but adopts a more cautious tone. Investors now look to the BOE, ECB and BOJ for signals on how they’ll handle the inflation threat. Today’s recommended read: Don't panic, don't capitulate: investors try to see beyond Iran war, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A blackout kept officials quiet as the oil shock hit. Now Fed Chair Jerome Powell returns with new projections — aiming to signal caution without moving rates. The physical oil market is screaming tighter supply while the paper market barely reacts. Plus, Micron’s AI surge keeps equities buoyant. Today’s recommended read:Inflation expectations flash a warning - but not a long-lasting one, by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Policymakers gather this week under renewed inflation pressure as crude returns to $100 and tensions in the Gulf rise. Meanwhile, chip producers warn that wafer shortages may persist to 2030, challenging tech supply and capital‑spending plans. Today’s recommended read: Oil shock sparks rate repricing in historic 'G4' central bank week, Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil trades back above $100 as the Iran war enters a third week. Markets watch a packed central bank calendar while U.S.–China trade talks begin in Paris, with a possible Trump–Xi summit now uncertain. Today’s recommended read: US is quickly exhausting tools to absorb Iran war oil shock by Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As tensions rise in the Middle East and oil prices jump, central banks from the Fed to the ECB are reworking their inflation math once again. The fresh oil shock is reshaping rate expectations—while hidden risks in private credit and software debt bubble up in the background. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A historic oil reserve release fails to cool prices, core inflation refuses to ease, and markets push rate‑cut hopes way back as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions reshape economic expectations in real time. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Washington eases sanctions to free up more Russian oil as Brent crude tops $101 a barrel. We break down the market fallout, the inflation squeeze and the impact on the Fed. Today’s recommended read: Iran war is one 'TACO' too far, by Jamie McGeever Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil surges to $100 again as Gulf attacks mount. Tehran says it’s ready to squeeze global oil until crude hits $200 a barrel. We explain why markets are taking that threat seriously and how it’s reshaping everything from shipping costs to inflation bets. Today’s recommended read: Iran oil shock prompts ECB hawks to seek 2021/22 rematch, by Mike Dolan Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tension in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping traders on edge and reshaping how markets think about energy. Plus, Oracle shares deliver a surprise lift, even as the world powering AI looks stretched. And JP Morgan spots some unsettling signals inside private credit. Today’s recommended read: The dangerous politics of US oil-driven redistribution, Mike Dolan Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil prices whipsaw as Trump signals the Iran conflict may end soon, sending volatility surging across global markets. Stocks, bonds, and rate expectations swing wildly, while China delivers a surprise trade boom that adds another twist to an already unpredictable day. Today’s recommended read: How oil shock and financial stress can feed each other by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oil prices surge past $100 as the Middle East conflict enters a second week, raising fears of a prolonged supply shock. Combined with weak U.S. jobs data, stagflation concerns intensify while global markets fall, bond yields jump, and investors shift toward dollar liquidity. Today’s recommended read: Compounding errors and narrow self-interest threaten global fuel crisis by Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Markets brace for a prolonged Middle East conflict as energy prices drive uncertainty. Inflation data lands this week with fresh clues on how the surge in oil and gas could spill over. And with Kevin Warsh waiting in the wings, Fed rate‑cut hopes keep sliding. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Energy prices jump, bonds sell off and central banks confront new inflation risks as the Middle East conflict expands. And the U.S. economy unexpectedly loses jobs in February, adding fresh uncertainty to the macro outlook. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump is brushing off a jump in gas prices, even as international markets brace for the steepest spike since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We unpack why the administration is betting the shock will be brief. Plus, why today’s jobs numbers could tell a very different story about the US economy. Today’s recommended read: Iran war exposes fragility of Western aluminium market, by Andy Home Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Global stocks steadied on Wednesday despite crude jumping to its highest since June. Plus, Europe watches for an energy shock. And China sets its lowest GDP target since 1991, signaling deeper economic strain. Today’s recommended read: Jet fuel's huge price surge points to coming pain from Iran war, by Clyde Russell Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Gold isn’t rallying, oil isn’t spiking as much as expected, and Asia’s top-performing markets are suddenly collapsing as the conflict in the Middle East continues. Plus, Anna Szymanski and Mike Dolan explain why so many investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven. Today’s recommended read: Gold flubs its lines amid Middle East mayhem by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The widening Middle East war pushes oil and European gas prices sharply higher, rattling global markets for a second day. Treasury yields climb as inflation worries outweigh haven demand. Currency tensions escalate as Japan and Switzerland both threaten intervention. Today’s recommended read: Dollar gets its mojo back - but only by default, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Energy markets enter crisis mode as conflict in Iran halts key shipping lanes and raises the threat of lasting supply disruption. Analysts warn crude could break into triple digits if the standoff continues. Risk assets retreat, and inflation worries creep back into bond markets. Today’s recommended read: Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades, Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Global oil and gas supplies are at risk from a widening conflict after Iran vows to avenge the killing of their supreme leader in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Energy prices are expected to jump when markets re-open and a prolonged crisis could send shockwaves through the global economy. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid ⁠newsletter,⁠ and check out his columns on ⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠ Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

An imagined dystopia of mass unemployment fuelled by artificial intelligence unnerves investors. Nvidia’s record‑breaking numbers fails to lift the mood. Plus, how global chip demand is reshaping markets from Seoul to Silicon Valley. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Paramount‑Skydance secures Warner Bros. as Netflix bows out. Plus, Jack Dorsey's Block cuts nearly half its staff, calling it an AI reset. And, Anthropic won’t drop its AI safeguards, putting a $200M Pentagon deal on the line. Today’s recommended read: Europe policymakers set for make or break decisions on industrial heat, Gavin Maguire Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia crushes expectations again but investors want more. Concerns about the AI economy overheating and Nvidia’s reliance on a small number of customers overhang the chipmaker. Plus, Iran talks in Geneva and Japanese politics and the yen. Today’s recommended read: To win Europe's embrace, China needs to uncap the yuan, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Anthropic’s new plug‑ins sent software stocks rallying - just weeks after the same AI fears wiped billions off the sector. Nvidia reports earnings today and a 5% swing could mean $230 billion in market value. Plus, U.S. President Donald Trump used the State of the Union to call out Big Tech’s power use, hinting that hyperscalers may have to build their own energy supply. Today’s recommended read: Maybe the global economy isn't all about AI, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trump’s uneven tariff guidance provides little clarity before his State of the Union speech, and a sharp tech-led decline hits Wall Street as investors digest a viral worst‑case AI report. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk drops 16% after its latest obesity drug disappoints in trials. Today’s recommended read: **Next Fed move a hike? Bostic's parting shot raises alarm, Mike Dolan** Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: **The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.** Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A dramatic weekend of tariff reversals leaves markets searching for direction, with questions mounting over U.S. fiscal planning. Meanwhile, oil prices retreat before the next round of U.S.-Iran discussions. Today’s recommended read: **US LNG export surge and soft China demand meet record European imports, Clyde Russell** Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: **The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.** Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The world’s most valuable company reports earnings this week, and investors are nervous. With AI spending ballooning and just four customers driving most of Nvidia’s revenue, the market wants answers. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Supreme Court ruling overturns some of Trump's sweeping U.S. tariffs, prompting potential importer refunds. Plus, U.S. inflation remains stubborn and fourth‑quarter GDP lands sharply below expectations, reflecting slowing economic momentum at the end of 2025. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A 43‑day shutdown delayed U.S. GDP numbers, but the economy is still expected to be growing briskly. We look at why higher‑income Americans may finally be pulling back on spending, what the Fed will be watching in today’s PCE data. Plus how fresh strains in private credit and rising debt worries are adding a new layer of uncertainty. Today’s recommended read: Morning Bid: Oil spoils tech tonic, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A mystery‑priced chip deal between Meta and Nvidia boosts Big Tech. Geopolitical tensions push oil prices higher. And even with AI spending exploding, Fed officials still aren’t convinced it will tame inflation anytime soon. Today’s recommended read: Hawks circle as top two central banks switch leaders, Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Christine Lagarde is reportedly considering an early exit as president of the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, Wall Street returns from its break with fresh anxiety about AI’s impact on Big Tech and future interest rates. Tonight’s Fed Minutes might offer a clue. Today’s recommended read: China isn’t importing any US LNG, but it's still in the game by Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Global markets return from a quiet long weekend on a softer note, gold and oil ease as U.S.–Iran talks begin in Geneva, and slowing UK wage growth boosts expectations the Bank of England may move toward a March rate cut. Today’s recommended read: 'Global euro' may have to come with some FX lift by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. inflation edges toward the Fed’s target while Japan’s government faces weak growth that underscores its push for fresh stimulus. Meanwhile, energy markets brace for volatility as a low‑expectation second round of U.S.–Iran talks in Geneva threatens to sway oil prices. Today’s recommended read: Suffocating Western pressure may finally force Russian oil output cuts by Ron Bousso Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A global rotation shakes up markets as money moves from pricey growth stocks into value. U.S. GDP and Walmart results may reveal whether momentum can last, and China’s Lunar New Year brings a surprising yuan rally that adds fresh intrigue to the week ahead. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From legal tech to finance, AI anxiety spread fast this week after another startup claimed it could do the job of entire teams. Plus, a rosy U.S. jobs report hides a much weaker white‑collar picture and a sliding dollar. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Investors have turned from AI euphoria to AI paranoia, after one startup’s software demo sparked selloffs across insurance, logistics, and even Apple. Plus, fresh January price hikes and lingering Trump‑era tariffs mean today’s CPI reading could be a make‑or‑break moment for the Fed. Today’s recommended read: What would it take for the Fed to raise rates?, by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

January’s blockbuster jobs report shattered the weak labor narrative and pushed expected Fed cuts further out. Add a CBO outlook with deeper deficits and higher‑for‑longer yields, and the path to 2026 rate cuts looks even murkier. Today’s recommended read: Trump rate hopes and CBO budget math don't chime, by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Main Street is wobbling, from layoffs to weak retail sales. At the same time, TSMC reports blistering growth. Plus, a new AI tax‑management tool sends wealth‑manager stocks tumbling. Today’s recommended read: Euro and yuan global ambitions hasten the dollar drop by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The renminbi jumps ahead of the Lunar New Year, big tech firms tap the bond market for major funding rounds, and UK politics stir brief market jitters as questions swirl around Prime Minister Starmer’s position. Today’s recommended read: Roaring global growth train emerging from 2026 fog by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Japan’s ruling party secures its biggest majority ever, powering a rally in Tokyo shares while bonds and the yen stay steady. Wall Street looks to extend Friday’s explosive gains. And attention shifts to Wednesday’s employment numbers as debates rage over AI’s long‑term impact on jobs. Today’s recommended read: **As global metals fever spreads, markets buckle under the heat, Andy Home** Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Our Standards: **The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.** Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This upcoming week, markets brace for Japan’s election fallout, fresh U.S. jobs and inflation data, and continued turbulence in AI‑driven tech stocks—three forces colliding to shape investor sentiment and test confidence across global markets. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After a brutal week for tech, Wall Street suddenly flips. The Dow crosses 50,000 for the first time, chip stocks roar back, and AI fears give way to bargain‑hunting. We explain what actually changed — and why investors still aren’t convinced the turbulence is over. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After months of optimism, markets are suddenly uneasy about who actually benefits from AI. With the monthly jobs report delayed, layoff notices and claims hint at a softer jobs market — and a $49 weight‑loss pill undercuts one of Europe’s biggest companies. Today’s recommended read: China tightens clean tech grip with growing EV export reach, by Gavin Maguire Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crypto prices slip alongside a broad tech sell‑off, blurring the line between Bitcoin and risk assets — plus the ECB weighs its next move. Today’s recommended read: US inflation isn't subsiding. It's heating up again, by Mike Dolan Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A new AI release rattled software stocks and wiped billions off company values. Walmart’s trillion‑dollar milestone, and the signs the global economy may be heating up again. Today’s recommended read: Warning from 'Down Under' may unsettle the Fed by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

OpenAI is reportedly unhappy with Nvidia’s newest chips, while Musk combines SpaceX and X‑AI into a trillion‑dollar IPO vehicle. Tariff cuts send the rupee and Indian stocks higher, but doubts remain over India’s pledge to ramp up U.S. imports and shift away from Russian crude. Today’s recommended read: Dollar risk premium is rebuilding by Mike Dolan Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices